Try the model
TLSA

Tulsa 26 at Houston 41

HOU
2018 · Week 6 · Oct 4, 2018 · TDECU Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · HOU
modelHOU aheadTLSA aheadconfidence bandkey playHOU scoreTLSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDFGFGTDFGTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 10:43 · Thomas Bennett punt for 54 yds , Bryson Smith returns for 7 yds to the Houst 20
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 168Pregame prior+7.5Home team on offense−5.9Score differential−3.7Garbage-time factor−0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−3.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:39: D'Eriq King run for 19 yds for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK) — HOU win probability +6.6 pts (now 82%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 4:34: Corey Taylor II run for 8 yds for a TD (Nathan Walker KICK) — TLSA win probability +21.7 pts (now 55%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 12:30: D'Eriq King run for 61 yds for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK) — HOU win probability +25.6 pts (now 61%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  4. FG · Q4 7:51: Dalton Witherspoon 33 yd FG GOOD — HOU win probability +10.3 pts (now 72%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:48: D'Eriq King pass complete to Romello Brooker for 9 yds for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK) — HOU win probability +26.9 pts (now 94%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
HOU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7TLSA made the numbers' call on 10 of 12
  1. Q1 13:50HOU 4th & 7 at HOU 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.6%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:45TLSA 4th & 4 at HOU 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    12.9%−0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    12.9%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:01TLSA 4th & 11 at HOU 11, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 14.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.4%−0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.5%
    87% to make
    Punt
    13.9%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:42TLSA 4th & 8 at TLSA 16, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.5%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.7%
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:10HOU 4th & 8 at TLSA 32, down 3
    Close callWent for it · 84.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.3%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    84.3%
    51% to make
    Punt
    84.2%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:22TLSA 4th & 15 at HOU 15, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 17.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.0%−0.6
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.6%
    83% to make
    Punt
    15.8%−1.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:13TLSA 4th & 4 at HOU 40, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    22.8%−0.8
    34% to make
    Punt
    22.9%−0.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:58TLSA 4th & 3 at TLSA 32, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.7%−0.3
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:16HOU 4th & 10 at TLSA 23, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.8%−0.6
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.4%
    70% to make
    Punt
    76.4%−3.0
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:24TLSA 4th & 10 at HOU 10, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 21.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.6%−0.9
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.5%
    88% to make
    Punt
    16.0%−5.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:13HOU 4th & 10 at HOU 19, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.8%−1.8
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:35TLSA 4th & 1 at HOU 20, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    24.3%−3.1
    75% to make
    Punt
    14.5%−12.9
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:47HOU 4th & 8 at HOU 27, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.7%−2.5
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:10TLSA 4th & 8 at HOU 18, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.5%−2.0
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.4%
    79% to make
    Punt
    47.5%−12.9
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:43TLSA 4th & 3 at TLSA 33, up 2
    Close callPunted · 47.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.1%−0.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:51HOU 4th & 2 at TLSA 16, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.2%−1.0
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.2%
    81% to make
    Punt
    39.1%−19.0
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:06TLSA 4th & 5 at TLSA 30, down 15
    Close callPunted · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.0%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.8%−0.2
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:33HOU 4th & 2 at HOU 34, up 15
    Close callPunted · 97.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.7%−0.2
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:08TLSA 4th & 10 at HOU 48, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.0%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.9%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
HOU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5TLSA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 11:45TLSA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:38HOU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:39HOU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 4:34TLSA Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.6%−0.3
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 12:30HOU Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 6:48HOU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.3%−0.6
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 6:20HOU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.5%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
HOUDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 1:0086% → 86%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
85.9%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 6 yds to the Houst 31Similar
Q1 14:37
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+4
85.9%
D'Eriq King run for 4 yds to the Houst 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:24
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
85.8%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 3 yds to the Houst 38Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 7
OWN 38
0
85.8%
Patrick Carr run for no gain to the Houst 38Similar
Q1 13:59
3RD & 7
OWN 38
0
85.7%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Courtney LarkSimilar
Q1 13:50
4TH & 7
OWN 38
+1
85.6%
Dane Roy punt for 45 yds , Jarion Anderson returns for 1 yd to the Tulsa 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 2TD
9 plays · 82 yds · 1:5014% → 16%
Q1 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
85.6%
Seth Boomer pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 4 yds to the Tulsa 22Similar
Q1 13:15
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+7
85.5%
Corey Taylor II run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
85.4%
Corey Taylor II run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q1 12:39
2ND & 5
OWN 34
0
85.2%
Seth Boomer pass incomplete to Justin HobbsSimilar
Q1 12:29
3RD & 5
OWN 34
+27
85.3%
Seth Boomer pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 27 yds to the Houst 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
85.0%
Corey Taylor II run for 6 yds to the Houst 33Similar
Q1 11:57
2ND & 4
OPP 33
0
84.9%
Seth Boomer pass incomplete to Keenen JohnsonSimilar
Q1 11:52
3RD & 4
OPP 33
0
84.9%
Seth Boomer pass incomplete to Keylon StokesSimilar
Q1 11:45
4TH & 4
OPP 33
+33
84.3%
Seth Boomer pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 33 yds for a TD (Nathan Walker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 3FUMBLE
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:1984% → 84%
Q1 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
84.3%
Patrick Carr run for 7 yds to the Houst 32Similar
Q1 11:25
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
84.4%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Jeremy SingletonSimilar
Q1 11:15
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+26
84.1%
D'Eriq King pass intercepted Cooper Edmiston return for 26 yds to the Houst 13 Cooper Edmiston fumbled, forced by Courtney Lark, recovered by TulsaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 4FG
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:5916% → 17%
Q1 11:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 13
+1
83.7%
Corey Taylor II run for 1 yd to the Houst 12Similar
Q1 10:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+1
83.5%
Chad President run for 1 yd to the Houst 11Similar
Q1 10:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
0
83.4%
Seth Boomer pass incomplete to Jarion AndersonSimilar
Q1 10:01
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+28
83.5%
Nathan Walker 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 5TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:1283% → 84%
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
83.4%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Jeremy Singleton for 3 yds to the Houst 28Similar
Q1 9:35
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+15
83.3%
Mulbah Car run for 15 yds to the Houst 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+12
83.3%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Mulbah Car for 12 yds to the Tulsa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
83.3%
HOUSTON Penalty, False Start (Keith Corbin) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 8:35
1ST & 15
50
-15
82.8%
HOUSTON Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Marquez Stevenson) to the Houst 35Similar
Q1 8:15
1ST & 30
OWN 35
+15
82.4%
Terence Williams run for 15 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 8:05
2ND & 15
50
+8
82.5%
Terence Williams run for 8 yds to the Tulsa 42Similar
Q1 7:54
3RD & 7
OPP 42
+10
82.6%
D'Eriq King run for 10 yds to the Tulsa 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
84.1%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Keith Corbin for 32 yds for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:4617% → 16%
Q1 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
83.4%
Corey Taylor II run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 16Similar
Q1 7:01
2ND & 8
OWN 16
0
83.2%
Seth Boomer pass incomplete to Keenen JohnsonSimilar
Q1 6:54
3RD & 8
OWN 16
0
83.5%
Seth Boomer pass incomplete to Justin HobbsSimilar
Q1 6:42
4TH & 8
OWN 16
+9
83.6%
Thomas Bennett punt for 55 yds , Bryson Smith returns for 9 yds to the Houst 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 7DOWNS
6 plays · 30 yds · 1:2484% → 83%
Q1 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
83.9%
Patrick Carr run for 6 yds to the Houst 44Similar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+22
83.8%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Romello Brooker for 22 yds to the Tulsa 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
84.1%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Bryson SmithSimilar
Q1 5:40
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+2
84.1%
Mulbah Car run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q1 5:16
3RD & 8
OPP 32
0
83.7%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Bryson SmithSimilar
Q1 5:10
4TH & 8
OPP 32
0
83.3%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Keith CorbinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 8FG
11 plays · 53 yds · 4:3818% → 21%
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
82.5%
Javon Thomas run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q1 4:40
2ND & 8
OWN 34
-2
82.4%
Javon Thomas run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q1 4:02
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+37
82.4%
Seth Boomer pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 37 yds to the Houst 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
81.3%
Javon Thomas run for 1 yd to the Houst 30Similar
Q1 3:15
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+5
81.0%
Corey Taylor II run for 5 yds to the Houst 25Similar
Q1 2:50
3RD & 4
OPP 25
+15
80.9%
Corey Taylor II run for 15 yds to the Houst 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-15
80.7%
TULSA Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Keylon Stokes) to the Houst 25Similar
Q1 2:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 25
+3
80.2%
Corey Taylor II run for 3 yds to the Houst 22Similar
Q1 1:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 22
+5
80.0%
Corey Taylor II run for 5 yds to the Houst 17Similar
Q1 0:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 17
+2
79.9%
Corey Taylor II run for 2 yds to the Houst 15Similar
Q1 0:22
4TH & GOAL
OPP 15
+32
78.7%
Nathan Walker 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 9FUMBLE
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:3579% → 79%
Q1 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
78.8%
Terence Williams run for 2 yds to the Houst 37Similar
Q1 0:05
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+1
78.8%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Courtney Lark for 1 yd to the Houst 38Similar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+10
78.3%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 10 yds to the Houst 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
79.2%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Terence Williams for 4 yds Terence Williams fumbled, forced by Cooper Edmiston, recovered by Tulsa McKinley WhitfieldSimilar
Q2 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
79.1%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Terence Williams for 4 yds Terence Williams fumbled, forced by Cooper Edmiston, recovered by Tulsa McKinley WhitfieldSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 10FUMBLE
4 plays · 21 yds · 0:4523% → 24%
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
77.2%
Seth Boomer pass incomplete to Keylon StokesSimilar
Q2 14:20
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+2
77.2%
Corey Taylor II run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 14:20
3RD & 8
50
+6
77.1%
Seth Boomer pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 19 yds Justin Hobbs fumbled, forced by Deontay Anderson, recovered by Houst Emeke Egbule , return for 6 yds to the Houst 37Similar
Q2 13:45
3RD & 8
50
+6
76.1%
Seth Boomer pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 19 yds Justin Hobbs fumbled, forced by Deontay Anderson, recovered by Houst Emeke Egbule , return for 6 yds to the Houst 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 11INT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:5878% → 76%
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
77.8%
D'Eriq King run for 3 yds to the Houst 40Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+4
78.0%
Terence Williams run for 4 yds to the Houst 44Similar
Q2 12:50
3RD & 3
OWN 44
-10
77.8%
HOUSTON Penalty, Offensive Holding (Josh Jones) to the Houst 34Similar
Q2 12:50
3RD & 13
OWN 34
0
76.6%
D'Eriq King pass intercepted Zaven Collins return for no gain to the Houst 46Similar
Q2 12:37
3RD & 13
OWN 34
0
76.0%
D'Eriq King pass intercepted Zaven Collins return for no gain to the Houst 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 12DOWNS
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1725% → 26%
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-3
74.7%
Keylon Stokes run for a loss of 3 yards to the Houst 49Similar
Q2 12:20
2ND & 13
OPP 49
0
75.2%
Seth Boomer pass incomplete to Keenen JohnsonSimilar
Q2 11:50
3RD & 13
OPP 49
+9
75.2%
Seth Boomer run for 9 yds to the Houst 40Similar
Q2 11:13
4TH & 4
OPP 40
0
74.4%
Seth Boomer pass incomplete to Cole NephSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 13TD
7 plays · 60 yds · 2:2676% → 82%
Q2 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
76.3%
D'Eriq King run for 11 yds to the Tulsa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+15
76.6%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Bryson Smith for 15 yds to the Tulsa 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+15
77.2%
TULSA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Keanu Hill) to the Tulsa 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-10
76.9%
HOUSTON Penalty, Offensive Holding (Will Noble) to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q2 9:25
1ST & 20
OPP 29
+2
76.2%
Mulbah Car run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 18
OPP 27
+8
75.5%
Mulbah Car run for 8 yds to the Tulsa 19Similar
Q2 8:39
3RD & 10
OPP 19
+19
82.0%
D'Eriq King run for 19 yds for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 2:3220% → 20%
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
79.8%
Corey Taylor II run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q2 8:02
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-10
79.9%
TULSA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Tiller Bucktrot) to the Tulsa 17Similar
Q2 7:20
2ND & 18
OWN 17
+1
80.1%
Corey Taylor II run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 18Similar
Q2 6:40
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+14
80.4%
Corey Taylor II run for 14 yds to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q2 5:58
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
79.9%
Thomas Bennett punt for 54 yds, downed at the Houst 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 15FG
12 plays · 63 yds · 3:3480% → 81%
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
80.4%
Patrick Carr run for 4 yds to the Houst 18Similar
Q2 5:30
2ND & 6
OWN 18
+5
80.3%
Patrick Carr run for 5 yds to the Houst 23Similar
Q2 5:10
3RD & 1
OWN 23
+29
80.0%
Patrick Carr run for 29 yds to the Tulsa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
81.9%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Romello BrookerSimilar
Q2 4:54
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+10
81.7%
Mulbah Car run for 10 yds to the Tulsa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
81.8%
Marquez Stevenson run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 35Similar
Q2 4:22
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+12
82.4%
Mulbah Car run for 12 yds to the Tulsa 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
82.3%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Romello Brooker for 5 yds to the Tulsa 18Similar
Q2 3:16
2ND & 5
OPP 18
-5
82.2%
HOUSTON Penalty, False Start (Josh Jones) to the Tulsa 23Similar
Q2 3:03
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
82.1%
Mulbah Car run for no gain to the Tulsa 23Similar
Q2 2:45
3RD & 10
OPP 23
0
81.0%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for no gain to the Tulsa 23Similar
Q2 2:16
4TH & 10
OPP 23
+40
81.1%
Dalton Witherspoon 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 16END OF HALF
8 plays · 6 yds · 1:4118% → 19%
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
81.7%
Corey Taylor II run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 28Similar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
81.4%
Seth Boomer pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 8 yds to the Tulsa 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
80.9%
Corey Taylor II run for 11 yds to the Tulsa 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
79.6%
Seth Boomer pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 4 yds to the Houst 49Similar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 6
OPP 49
-5
78.9%
TULSA Penalty, False Start (Justin Hobbs) to the Tulsa 46Similar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 11
OWN 46
0
80.5%
Seth Boomer pass incomplete to Keenen JohnsonSimilar
Q2 0:19
3RD & 11
OWN 46
-15
81.0%
Seth Boomer sacked by David Anenih for a loss of 15 yards to the Tulsa 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 17FG
15 plays · 65 yds · 5:2822% → 27%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
78.1%
Corey Taylor II run for 13 yds to the Tulsa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
77.1%
Corey Taylor II run for 9 yds to the Tulsa 47Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+2
75.3%
Corey Taylor II run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+18
75.4%
Javon Thomas run for 18 yds to the Houst 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
74.1%
Javon Thomas run for 5 yds to the Houst 28Similar
Q3 12:55
2ND & 5
OPP 28
-1
73.5%
Javon Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 29Similar
Q3 12:20
3RD & 6
OPP 29
-5
74.6%
TULSA Penalty, False Start (Tyler Bowling) to the Houst 34Similar
Q3 11:50
3RD & 11
OPP 34
+13
75.4%
Seth Boomer pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 13 yds to the Houst 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:37
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
72.9%
Javon Thomas run for 2 yds to the Houst 19Similar
Q3 11:12
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+10
72.7%
Seth Boomer pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 10 yds to the Houst 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
73.9%
Corey Taylor II run for no gain to the Houst 9Similar
Q3 10:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
73.7%
Corey Taylor II run for 1 yd to the Houst 8Similar
Q3 9:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
-2
74.7%
Seth Boomer sacked by Terence Williams for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 10 Seth Boomer fumbled, recovered by Tulsa , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 9:24
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+27
73.5%
Nathan Walker 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:5775% → 73%
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
74.9%
Patrick Carr run for 1 yd to the Houst 20Similar
Q3 8:55
2ND & 9
OWN 20
-1
74.6%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Patrick Carr for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 19Similar
Q3 8:25
3RD & 10
OWN 19
0
73.2%
HOUSTON Penalty, Illegal Touching (Courtney Lark) to the Houst 19Similar
Q3 8:13
4TH & 10
OWN 19
0
72.5%
Dane Roy punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jarion Anderson at the Tulsa 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 19TD
10 plays · 60 yds · 3:3528% → 55%
Q3 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
71.9%
Seth Boomer pass incomplete to Keenen JohnsonSimilar
Q3 7:55
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
72.4%
Corey Taylor II run for no gain to the Tulsa 40Similar
Q3 7:27
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+31
73.3%
Seth Boomer pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 31 yds to the Houst 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+9
68.6%
Seth Boomer pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 9 yds to the Houst 20Similar
Q3 6:38
2ND & 1
OPP 20
0
68.3%
Seth Boomer pass incomplete to Josh StewartSimilar
Q3 6:18
3RD & 1
OPP 20
0
69.4%
Corey Taylor II run for no gain to the Houst 20Similar
Q3 5:35
4TH & 1
OPP 20
+3
70.8%
Corey Taylor II run for 3 yds to the Houst 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+7
67.5%
Chad President run for 7 yds to the Houst 10Similar
Q3 4:55
2ND & 3
OPP 10
+2
66.9%
Corey Taylor II run for 2 yds to the Houst 8Similar
Q3 4:34
3RD & 1
OPP 8
+8
45.3%
Corey Taylor II run for 8 yds for a TD (Nathan Walker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:3853% → 48%
Q3 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
52.6%
Mulbah Car run for 1 yd to the Houst 26Similar
Q3 4:02
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+8
52.1%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 8 yds to the Houst 34Similar
Q3 3:53
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-5
53.2%
HOUSTON Penalty, False Start (Will Noble) to the Houst 29Similar
Q3 3:20
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-2
50.5%
D'Eriq King run for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 27Similar
Q3 2:47
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
48.0%
Dane Roy punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tulsa 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 21FG
12 plays · 45 yds · 4:2755% → 66%
Q3 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
44.6%
Corey Taylor II run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 43Similar
Q3 2:20
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+26
43.0%
Seth Boomer pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 26 yds to the Houst 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
39.9%
Corey Taylor II run for 6 yds to the Houst 25Similar
Q3 1:20
2ND & 4
OPP 25
+2
39.0%
Javon Thomas run for 2 yds to the Houst 23Similar
Q3 0:50
3RD & 2
OPP 23
+3
39.4%
Javon Thomas run for 3 yds to the Houst 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
38.0%
Javon Thomas run for 1 yd to the Houst 19Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+3
37.2%
Corey Taylor II run for 3 yds to the Houst 16Similar
Q4 14:10
3RD & 6
OPP 16
-5
37.4%
TULSA Penalty, False Start (Keylon Stokes) to the Houst 21Similar
Q4 13:48
3RD & 11
OPP 21
-5
37.1%
TULSA Penalty, False Start (Cole Neph) to the Houst 26Similar
Q4 13:40
3RD & 16
OPP 26
+8
37.7%
Corey Taylor II run for 8 yds to the Houst 18Similar
Q4 13:10
4TH & 8
OPP 18
+35
34.1%
Nathan Walker 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 22TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:3034% → 61%
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
34.3%
Mulbah Car run for 6 yds to the Houst 31Similar
Q4 12:47
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+8
35.2%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 8 yds to the Houst 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+61
60.9%
D'Eriq King run for 61 yds for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:2248% → 48%
Q4 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
51.6%
Corey Taylor II run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q4 11:47
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+8
51.4%
Corey Taylor II run for 8 yds to the Tulsa 35Similar
Q4 11:25
3RD & 1
OWN 35
-2
49.2%
Corey Taylor II run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 33Similar
Q4 10:43
4TH & 3
OWN 33
+7
51.9%
Thomas Bennett punt for 54 yds , Bryson Smith returns for 7 yds to the Houst 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 24FG
9 plays · 64 yds · 2:4457% → 72%
Q4 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+27
57.1%
Patrick Carr run for 27 yds to the Houst 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+19
62.6%
D'Eriq King run for 4 yds to the HOUSTON 49 for a 1ST down TULSA Penalty, Personal Foul (Cullen Wick) to the Tulsa 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-5
65.0%
HOUSTON Penalty, False Start (Courtney Lark) to the Tulsa 39Similar
Q4 9:43
1ST & 15
OPP 39
+1
60.2%
Mulbah Car run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 38Similar
Q4 9:38
2ND & 14
OPP 38
+14
59.6%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Courtney Lark for 14 yds to the Tulsa 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+8
65.1%
Patrick Carr run for 8 yds to the Tulsa 16Similar
Q4 8:41
2ND & 2
OPP 16
+1
64.8%
Patrick Carr run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 15Similar
Q4 8:15
3RD & 1
OPP 15
-1
61.9%
Patrick Carr run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 16Similar
Q4 7:51
4TH & 2
OPP 16
+33
72.2%
Dalton Witherspoon 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 25FUMBLE
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:4133% → 33%
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
66.8%
Javon Thomas run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 17Similar
Q4 7:10
2ND & 8
OWN 17
-1
65.5%
Seth Boomer sacked by Austin Robinson for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 16Similar
Q4 6:54
3RD & 9
OWN 16
-7
66.8%
Seth Boomer sacked by Elijah Gooden for a loss of 7 yards to the Tulsa 9 Seth Boomer fumbled, recovered by Houst Emeke Egbule , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 26TD
1 play · 9 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q4 6:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
93.7%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Romello Brooker for 9 yds for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 27INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q4 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
89.9%
Seth Boomer pass intercepted Deontay Anderson return for 8 yds to the Tulsa 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 28TD
2 plays · 23 yds · 0:1394% → 98%
Q4 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+17
93.7%
Mulbah Car run for 17 yds to the Tulsa 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
97.6%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 6 yds for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 29PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:093% → 3%
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
96.7%
Javon Thomas run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 26Similar
Q4 5:43
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
96.8%
Javon Thomas run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q4 5:12
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
96.9%
Seth Boomer pass incomplete to Justin HobbsSimilar
Q4 5:06
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
97.1%
Thomas Bennett punt for 55 yds, fair catch by Bryson Smith at the Houst 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 30PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 2:1798% → 98%
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
97.6%
Patrick Carr run for 3 yds to the Houst 18Similar
Q4 4:10
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+8
97.9%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Romello Brooker for 8 yds to the Houst 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
98.0%
Patrick Carr run for 1 yd to the Houst 27Similar
Q4 2:55
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+6
98.1%
D'Eriq King run for 6 yds to the Houst 33Similar
Q4 2:42
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+1
98.3%
D'Eriq King run for 1 yd to the Houst 34Similar
Q4 2:33
4TH & 2
OWN 34
0
98.2%
Dane Roy punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jarion Anderson at the Tulsa 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 31DOWNS
8 plays · 26 yds · 1:121% → 1%
Q4 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
99.2%
Seth Boomer pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 6 yds to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q4 2:10
2ND & 4
OWN 32
+3
99.2%
Javon Thomas run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 35Similar
Q4 1:45
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+5
99.2%
Javon Thomas run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+12
99.2%
Seth Boomer run for 12 yds to the Houst 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
99.1%
Seth Boomer pass incomplete to Justin HobbsSimilar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
99.1%
Seth Boomer pass incomplete to Justin HobbsSimilar
Q4 1:13
3RD & 10
OPP 48
0
99.2%
Seth Boomer pass incomplete to Jarion AndersonSimilar
Q4 1:08
4TH & 10
OPP 48
0
99.2%
Seth Boomer pass incomplete to Justin HobbsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 32Uncategorized
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:2799% → 99%
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-1
98.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 47Similar
Q4 0:33
2ND & 11
OWN 47
-1
98.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:48
D'Eriq King pass complete to Romello Brooker for 9 yds for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)
+26.9
TD · Q4 12:30
D'Eriq King run for 61 yds for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)
+25.6
TD · Q3 4:34
Corey Taylor II run for 8 yds for a TD (Nathan Walker KICK)
-21.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com