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HCU

Houston Christian 27 at SMU 63

SMU
2018 · Week 5 · Sep 29, 2018 · Gerald J. Ford Stadium
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Win probability · SMU
modelSMU aheadHCU aheadconfidence bandkey playSMU scoreHCU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:23 · Merek Pierce run for 5 yds to the HstnB 48
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+49.5+24.80−24.8−49.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 3:35: Alec Chadwick 35 yd FG GOOD — HCU win probability +0.3 pts (now 1%) (top driver: HCU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:55: Braeden West run for 25 yds for a TD (Kevin Robledo KICK) — SMU win probability +0.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 6:41: Kevin Robledo kickoff for 60 yds , LaDarius Dickens return for 95 yds for a TD (Alec Chadwick KICK) — HCU win probability +0.5 pts (now 1%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:00: Jamie Sackville pass complete to Ben Redding for 4 yds for a TD (Kevin Robledo KICK) — SMU win probability +0.9 pts (now 100%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 5:43: Bailey Zappe pass complete to Trevor Larkin for 8 yds for a TD (Alec Chadwick KICK) — HCU win probability +0.5 pts (now 1%) (top driver: HCU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SMU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6HCU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 10:09HCU 4th & 6 at HCU 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:35HCU 4th & 6 at SMU 18, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.3%−<0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    1.3%
    79% to make
    Punt
    0.9%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:04HCU 4th & 3 at SMU 26, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    1.2%−<0.1
    64% to make
    Punt
    0.9%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:21HCU 4th & 18 at HCU 35, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.2%−0.2
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:28SMU 4th & 8 at SMU 42, up 18
    Close callWent for it · 98.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.4%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    98.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:36SMU 4th & 2 at HCU 40, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    98.0%−0.2
    34% to make
    Punt
    98.0%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:48HCU 4th & 6 at HCU 44, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.8%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:00SMU 4th & 4 at HCU 4, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    97.8%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    96.8%−1.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00SMU 4th & 9 at SMU 36, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 14:14HCU 4th & 8 at HCU 48, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:20SMU 4th & 1 at HCU 11, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    99.3%−0.2
    87% to make
    Punt
    98.7%−0.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:22HCU 4th & 10 at SMU 12, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.1%
    86% to make
    Punt
    -0.4%−0.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:22HCU 4th & 7 at SMU 7, down 36
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%
    91% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−0.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:40HCU 4th & 7 at SMU 48, down 36
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:24SMU 4th & 9 at SMU 6, up 36
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SMU made the numbers' call on 9 of 9HCU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 10:15SMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:09SMU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:39SMU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:55SMU Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:00SMU Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 8:20SMU Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 5:43HCU Touchdown, down 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 2:58SMU Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 12:18SMU Touchdown, up 35 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 8:22HCU Touchdown, down 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 7:19SMU Touchdown, up 35 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
HCUDrive 1INT
8 plays · 29 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
99.4%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Dreshawn Minnieweather for 2 yds to the HstnB 14Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 14
+4
99.4%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to LaDarius Dickens for 4 yds to the HstnB 18Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 18
+6
99.4%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Nick Sexton for 6 yds to the HstnB 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
99.4%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jarreth Sterns for no gain to the HstnB 24Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+6
99.4%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jarreth Sterns for 6 yds to the HstnB 30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 30
+11
99.4%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jarreth Sterns for 11 yds to the HstnB 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
99.4%
Bailey Zappe pass intercepted Rodney Clemons return for no gain to the SMU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 2TD
6 plays · 64 yds · 2:1299% → 99%
Q1 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
99.2%
Reggie Roberson Jr. run for 11 yds to the SMU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+22
99.3%
William Brown pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 7 yds to the HOUBAPT 46 for a 1ST down HOUSTON BAPTIST Penalty, personal foul (Kyle Bowling) to the HstnB 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
99.3%
Braeden West run for 1 yd to the HstnB 30Similar
Q1 12:27
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+10
99.3%
William Brown run for 10 yds to the HstnB 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:27
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
99.3%
Braeden West run for no gain to the HstnB 20Similar
Q1 10:15
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+20
99.2%
Jared Miles run for 20 yds for a TD (Kevin Robledo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
99.1%
Bailey Zappe run for no gain to the HstnB 39Similar
Q1 10:09
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
99.2%
Bailey Zappe pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:09
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+4
99.2%
Bailey Zappe run for 4 yds to the HstnB 43Similar
Q1 10:09
4TH & 6
OWN 43
+2
99.2%
Alec Chadwick punt for 47 yds , James Proche returns for 2 yds to the SMU 45 SMU Penalty, personal foul (6 Yards) to the SMU 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 4TD
2 plays · 94 yds · 0:3899% → 99%
Q1 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+2
99.1%
Xavier Jones run for 2 yds to the SMU 8Similar
Q1 8:09
2ND & 8
OWN 8
+92
99.2%
William Brown pass complete to Tyler Page for 92 yds for a TD (Kevin Robledo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 5FUMBLE
6 plays · 22 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
99.1%
Dreshawn Minnieweather run for 3 yds to the HstnB 20Similar
Q1 8:05
2ND & 7
OWN 20
0
99.1%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Nick SextonSimilar
Q1 8:05
3RD & 7
OWN 20
+11
99.1%
Bailey Zappe run for 11 yds to the HstnB 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
99.1%
LaDarius Dickens run for 1 yd to the HstnB 32Similar
Q1 8:05
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+3
99.1%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Terry Tillmon for 3 yds Terry Tillmon fumbled, forced by Rodney Clemons, recovered by SMU Jake HallSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 6FUMBLE
1 play · -19 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q1 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-9
99.1%
William Brown sacked by Johnavhon Graham for a loss of 9 yards to the SMU 42 William Brown fumbled, recovered by HstnB Tyrell Stewart , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 7FG
8 plays · 24 yds · 2:311% → 1%
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
99.0%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Dreshawn Minnieweather, broken up by Kyran MitchellSimilar
Q1 6:06
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+10
99.0%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Gamar Girdy Brito for 10 yds to the SMU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
99.0%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Jeremy SmithSimilar
Q1 6:06
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+10
99.0%
Dreshawn Minnieweather run for 10 yds to the SMU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-13
99.0%
Bailey Zappe sacked by Delontae Scott for a loss of 13 yards to the SMU 35Similar
Q1 6:06
2ND & 23
OPP 35
0
99.0%
Bailey Zappe pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:06
3RD & 23
OPP 35
+17
99.1%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Corey Ceniceros for 17 yds to the SMU 18Similar
Q1 3:35
4TH & 6
OPP 18
+35
98.8%
Alec Chadwick 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 8TD
6 plays · 64 yds · 1:4899% → 99%
Q1 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
98.8%
Braeden West run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 35Similar
Q1 3:27
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+43
98.8%
William Brown pass complete to James Proche for 43 yds to the HstnB 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:27
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
98.8%
William Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:27
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+2
98.8%
Braeden West run for 2 yds to the HstnB 20Similar
Q1 1:39
3RD & 8
OPP 20
+20
99.1%
William Brown pass complete to James Proche for 20 yds for a TD (Kevin Robledo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 9DOWNS
6 plays · 6 yds · 1:251% → 1%
Q1 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
99.0%
Bailey Zappe pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:29
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+8
99.0%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Nick Sexton for 8 yds to the SMU 25Similar
Q1 1:29
3RD & 2
OPP 25
-1
99.0%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to David Racine for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 26Similar
Q1 0:04
4TH & 3
OPP 26
-1
98.9%
Bailey Zappe run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 10INT
10 plays · 42 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
99.0%
Xavier Jones run for 4 yds to the SMU 31Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+24
99.0%
William Brown pass complete to Hunter Thedford for 24 yds to the HstnB 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
99.1%
Xavier Jones run for 8 yds to the HstnB 37Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 37
-6
99.1%
William Brown run for 9 yds to the HstnB 28 SMU Penalty, personal foul (James Proche) to the HstnB 43Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
99.1%
Xavier Jones run for 4 yds to the HstnB 39Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+5
99.1%
Xavier Jones run for 5 yds to the HstnB 34Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+5
99.0%
Xavier Jones run for 5 yds to the HstnB 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
99.1%
Xavier Jones run for 2 yds to the HstnB 27Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 27
-4
99.1%
Xavier Jones run for a loss of 4 yards to the HstnB 31Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 31
+24
99.0%
William Brown pass intercepted Marlon Wilkins return for 24 yds to the HstnB 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
98.8%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Dreshawn Minnieweather for 5 yds to the HstnB 38Similar
Q2 11:21
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+5
98.8%
Dreshawn Minnieweather run for 5 yds to the HstnB 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
98.8%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Gamar Girdy Brito, broken up by Mikial OnuSimilar
Q2 11:21
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
98.8%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to David Racine for no gain to the HstnB 43Similar
Q2 11:21
3RD & 10
OWN 43
-8
98.8%
Bailey Zappe sacked by Demerick Gary and Toby Ndukwe for a loss of 8 yards to the HstnB 35Similar
Q2 11:21
4TH & 18
OWN 35
0
98.9%
Alec Chadwick punt for 25 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SMU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 12TD
7 plays · 60 yds · 2:3399% → 99%
Q2 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
98.9%
William Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:28
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-4
98.9%
William Brown pass complete to Braeden West for a loss of 4 yards to the SMU 36Similar
Q2 9:28
3RD & 14
OWN 36
+6
98.8%
William Brown run for 6 yds to the SMU 42 SMU Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 9:28
4TH & 8
OWN 42
+25
98.8%
Jamie Sackville pass complete to Ben Redding for 25 yds to the HstnB 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
98.9%
Ben Hicks pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:28
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+8
98.9%
Braeden West run for 8 yds to the HstnB 25Similar
Q2 6:55
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+25
99.2%
Braeden West run for 25 yds for a TD (Kevin Robledo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 14DOWNS
9 plays · 24 yds · 0:5499% → 99%
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
98.7%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Braeden West for 7 yds to the SMU 43Similar
Q2 6:30
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+1
98.7%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Tyler Page for 1 yd to the SMU 44Similar
Q2 5:36
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+8
98.7%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 8 yds to the HstnB 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:36
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
98.7%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Xavier JonesSimilar
Q2 5:36
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+2
98.7%
Xavier Jones run for 2 yds to the HstnB 46Similar
Q2 5:36
3RD & 8
OPP 46
+6
98.7%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 6 yds to the HstnB 40Similar
Q2 5:36
4TH & 2
OPP 40
0
98.6%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete, broken up by Caleb JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
98.4%
Dreshawn Minnieweather run for 4 yds to the HstnB 44Similar
Q2 3:48
2ND & 6
OWN 44
0
98.3%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Jeremy Smith, broken up by Jordan WyattSimilar
Q2 3:48
3RD & 6
OWN 44
0
98.4%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Nick SextonSimilar
Q2 3:48
4TH & 6
OWN 44
-2
98.4%
Alec Chadwick punt for 50 yds , James Proche returns for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 16END OF HALF
9 plays · 92 yds · 2:5699% → 100%
Q2 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+1
98.6%
Braeden West run for 1 yd to the SMU 5Similar
Q2 2:56
2ND & 9
OWN 5
0
98.6%
William Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:56
3RD & 9
OWN 5
+45
98.6%
William Brown pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 45 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down HOUSTON BAPTIST Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:07
1ST & 10
50
+44
98.6%
William Brown pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 44 yds to the HstnB 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
98.6%
William Brown run for 5 yds to the HstnB 1Similar
Q2 2:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
98.6%
William Brown pass incomplete to James ProcheSimilar
Q2 2:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+2
98.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the HstnB 4 TEAM fumbled, recovered by SMU Braeden West , return for 2 yds to the HstnB 4Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.5%
Jamie Sackville pass complete to Ben Redding for 4 yds for a TD (Kevin Robledo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:00100% → 99%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
99.5%
William Brown pass complete to Jared Miles for 1 yd to the SMU 36Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 36
0
99.5%
William Brown pass incomplete to Myron Gailliard, broken up by Coi MillerSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 36
0
99.5%
William Brown pass incomplete to James ProcheSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 36
0
99.4%
Jamie Sackville punt for 28 yds , Jarreth Sterns returns for no gain to the HstnB 36 Jarreth Sterns fumbled, recovered by HstnB Jarreth SternsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
99.3%
Dreshawn Minnieweather run for 3 yds to the HstnB 39Similar
Q3 14:14
2ND & 7
OWN 39
-1
99.3%
LaDarius Dickens run for a loss of 1 yard to the HstnB 38Similar
Q3 14:14
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+8
99.3%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Dreshawn Minnieweather for 8 yds to the HstnB 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
99.3%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to David Racine, broken up by Jordan WyattSimilar
Q3 14:14
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+2
99.3%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Nick Sexton for 2 yds to the HstnB 48Similar
Q3 14:14
3RD & 8
OWN 48
0
99.3%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Jarreth SternsSimilar
Q3 14:14
4TH & 8
OWN 48
0
99.3%
Alec Chadwick punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 19TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 3:30100% → 100%
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
99.5%
Braeden West run for 2 yds to the SMU 22Similar
Q3 11:50
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+8
99.5%
Braeden West run for 8 yds to the SMU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+22
99.5%
William Brown pass complete to Braeden West for 22 yds to the HstnB 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
99.6%
William Brown pass complete to Jordan Brooks-Wess for 6 yds to the HstnB 42Similar
Q3 11:50
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+10
99.6%
Braeden West run for 10 yds to the HstnB 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+12
99.6%
Jared Miles run for 12 yds to the HstnB 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
99.6%
William Brown pass incomplete to Reggie Roberson Jr.Similar
Q3 11:50
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+9
99.6%
William Brown pass complete to Tyler Page for 9 yds to the HstnB 11Similar
Q3 8:58
3RD & 1
OPP 11
+1
99.6%
Braeden West run for 1 yd to the HstnB 11 Braeden West fumbled, forced by Greg Vincent, recovered by SMU Reggie Roberson Jr. , return for no gain to the HstnB 11Similar
Q3 8:20
4TH & 1
OPP 11
+11
99.9%
Braeden West run for 11 yds for a TD (Kevin Robledo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 20TD
14 plays · 65 yds · 2:370% → 1%
Q3 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
99.9%
LaDarius Dickens run for 4 yds to the HstnB 39Similar
Q3 8:20
2ND & 6
OWN 39
0
99.9%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Jeremy Smith, broken up by Rodney ClemonsSimilar
Q3 8:20
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+12
99.9%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Trevor Larkin for 12 yds to the SMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
99.9%
Dreshawn Minnieweather run for 1 yd to the SMU 48Similar
Q3 8:20
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+21
99.9%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Terry Tillmon for 21 yds to the SMU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
99.8%
Bailey Zappe pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:20
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+8
99.9%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Dreshawn Minnieweather for 8 yds to the SMU 19Similar
Q3 8:20
3RD & 2
OPP 19
+2
99.8%
LaDarius Dickens run for 2 yds to the SMU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
99.8%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Jeremy SmithSimilar
Q3 8:20
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+9
99.8%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to David Racine for a 1ST down SMU Penalty, personal foul (Mikial Onu) to the SMU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
99.9%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Jeremy Smith, broken up by Christian DavisSimilar
Q3 5:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
99.3%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Trevor Larkin for 8 yds for a TD (Alec Chadwick KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 21TD
8 plays · 55 yds · 2:36100% → 100%
Q3 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+14
99.7%
William Brown run for 14 yds to the HstnB 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
99.8%
Merek Pierce run for 6 yds to the HstnB 35Similar
Q3 5:34
2ND & 4
OPP 35
0
99.8%
William Brown run for no gain to the HstnB 35Similar
Q3 5:34
3RD & 4
OPP 35
+5
99.8%
Merek Pierce run for 5 yds to the HstnB 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+14
99.8%
Merek Pierce run for 14 yds to the HstnB 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+7
99.8%
Merek Pierce run for 7 yds to the HstnB 9 HOUSTON BAPTIST Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 2:58
2ND & 3
OPP 9
+9
99.9%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Judah Bell for 9 yds for a TD (Kevin Robledo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 22FG
11 plays · 53 yds · 2:360% → 0%
Q3 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
99.9%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Nick Sexton for 6 yds to the HstnB 41Similar
Q3 2:58
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+17
99.9%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Nick Sexton for 17 yds to the SMU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:58
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+12
99.9%
Bailey Zappe run for 12 yds to the SMU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:58
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
99.9%
Bailey Zappe pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:58
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+6
99.9%
Minnieweather,D rush for 1 yard to the SMU29 (CHOATE, Gerrit), PENALTY SMU substitution infraction 6 yards to the SMU24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:58
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+12
99.9%
SMU Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (12 Yards) to the SMU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:58
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
99.9%
Dreshawn Minnieweather run for no gain to the SMU 12Similar
Q3 2:58
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+5
99.9%
LaDarius Dickens run for 5 yds to the SMU 7Similar
Q3 2:58
3RD & 5
OPP 7
-5
99.9%
Bailey Zappe run for a loss of 5 yards to the SMU 12Similar
Q3 0:22
4TH & 10
OPP 12
+29
99.9%
Alec Chadwick 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 23TD
10 plays · 62 yds · 2:57100% → 100%
Q3 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+17
99.9%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Judah Bell for 17 yds to the HstnB 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
99.9%
J.R. Griffin run for 3 yds to the HstnB 42Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+7
99.9%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Treveon Johnson for 7 yds to the HstnB 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
99.9%
Ben Hicks pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+21
99.9%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Myron Gailliard for 6 yds to the HstnB 29 for a 1ST down HOUSTON BAPTIST Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Kyle Bowling) to the HstnB 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+9
99.9%
J.R. Griffin run for 9 yds to the HstnB 5Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 5
+3
99.9%
J.R. Griffin run for 3 yds to the HstnB 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
99.9%
J.R. Griffin run for 1 yd to the HstnB 1Similar
Q4 12:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
J.R. Griffin run for 1 yd for a TD (Kevin Robledo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 24TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:560% → 0%
Q4 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.9%
Bailey Zappe run for 1 yd to the HstnB 26Similar
Q4 12:18
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
99.9%
Myles Lewis run for 2 yds to the HstnB 28Similar
Q4 12:18
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+14
100.0%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Vernon Harrell for 14 yds to the HstnB 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+19
99.9%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Corey Ceniceros for 19 yds to the SMU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+10
99.9%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Vernon Harrell for 10 yds to the SMU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+13
99.9%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Ean Beek for 13 yds to the SMU 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+8
99.9%
Zappe, Bailey sacked for loss of 6 yards to the SMU22 (CHOATE, Gerrit;HALL, Jake), PENALTY SMU holding (BLAKE, Jourdan) 8 yards to the SMU8, 1ST DOWN HBU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
99.9%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Vernon Harrell, broken up by Christian DavisSimilar
Q4 12:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
99.9%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Jarreth Sterns, broken up by Collin RockSimilar
Q4 12:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
99.9%
Myles Lewis run for 1 yd to the SMU 7Similar
Q4 8:22
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
99.9%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jarreth Sterns for 7 yds for a TD (Alec Chadwick KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 25TD
5 plays · 12 yds · 0:49100% → 100%
Q4 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+9
99.9%
Austin Upshaw run for 9 yds to the HstnB 3Similar
Q4 8:08
2ND & 1
OPP 3
+2
99.9%
Merek Pierce run for 2 yds to the HstnB 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
100.0%
Austin Upshaw run for 1 yd for a TD (Kevin Robledo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 26PUNT
10 plays · 38 yds · 1:330% → 0%
Q4 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+6
100.0%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Aaron Marquez for 6 yds to the HstnB 20Similar
Q4 7:13
2ND & 4
OWN 20
0
100.0%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Vernon Harrell, broken up by Jordon WilliamsSimilar
Q4 7:13
3RD & 4
OWN 20
+11
100.0%
Bailey Zappe run for 11 yds to the HstnB 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+18
100.0%
Bailey Zappe run for 3 yds to the HstnB 34 for a 1ST down SMU Penalty, personal foul (Jordon Williams) to the HstnB 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
100.0%
Ean Beek run for 3 yds to the SMU 48Similar
Q4 7:13
2ND & 7
OPP 48
0
100.0%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Vernon Harrell, broken up by Christian DavisSimilar
Q4 5:40
3RD & 7
OPP 48
0
100.0%
Bailey Zappe pass incomplete to Vernon Harrell, broken up by Christian DavisSimilar
Q4 5:40
4TH & 7
OPP 48
0
100.0%
Alec Chadwick punt for 43 yds, downed at the SMU 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 27PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+5
100.0%
Austin Upshaw run for 5 yds to the SMU 10Similar
Q4 5:24
2ND & 5
OWN 10
0
100.0%
Austin Upshaw pass incomplete, broken up by Carter CouchSimilar
Q4 5:24
3RD & 5
OWN 10
-4
100.0%
Austin Upshaw run for a loss of 4 yards to the SMU 6Similar
Q4 5:24
4TH & 9
OWN 6
+3
100.0%
Jamie Sackville punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SMU 37 , Jarreth Sterns returns for 3 yds to the SMU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HCUDrive 28FUMBLE
2 plays · 17 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 3:56
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+15
100.0%
Andrew Haidet pass complete to Myles Lewis for 15 yds to the SMU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:56
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-2
100.0%
Myles Lewis run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 20 Myles Lewis fumbled, forced by Gerrit Choate, recovered by SMU Preston EllisonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 29END OF GAME
6 plays · 32 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
100.0%
Austin Upshaw pass complete to Treveon Johnson for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 19Similar
Q4 3:23
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+4
100.0%
Merek Pierce run for 4 yds to the SMU 23Similar
Q4 3:23
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+11
100.0%
Austin Upshaw pass complete to Jordan Brooks-Wess for 11 yds to the SMU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
100.0%
Merek Pierce run for 6 yds to the SMU 40Similar
Q4 3:23
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+7
100.0%
Merek Pierce run for 7 yds to the SMU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
100.0%
Merek Pierce run for 5 yds to the HstnB 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:00
Jamie Sackville pass complete to Ben Redding for 4 yds for a TD (Kevin Robledo KICK)
+0.9
TD · Q2 6:41
Kevin Robledo kickoff for 60 yds , LaDarius Dickens return for 95 yds for a TD (Alec Chadwick KICK)
-0.5
TD · Q3 5:43
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Trevor Larkin for 8 yds for a TD (Alec Chadwick KICK)
-0.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com