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Win probability · TULN
modelTULN aheadMEM aheadconfidence bandkey playTULN scoreMEM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:01 · Riley Patterson 43 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- FG · Q2 0:00: Merek Glover 20 yd FG GOOD — TULN win probability +4.3 pts (now 57%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
- TD · Q3 12:50: Brady White pass complete to Darrell Henderson for 43 yds for a TD (Riley Patterson KICK) — MEM win probability +14.8 pts (now 61%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
- TD · Q3 0:00: Justin McMillan pass complete to Darnell Mooney for 51 yds for a TD (Merek Glover KICK) — TULN win probability +21.1 pts (now 77%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
- TD · Q4 11:50: Corey Dauphine run for 46 yds for a TD (Merek Glover KICK) — TULN win probability +7.7 pts (now 97%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
- TD · Q4 7:05: Brady White pass complete to Tony Pollard for 2 yds for a TD (Riley Patterson KICK) — MEM win probability +5.4 pts (now 6%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TULN made the numbers' call on 6 of 6MEM made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
- Q1 5:40TULN 4th & 1 at TULN 47, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call23.5%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt23.1%−0.3average punt
- Q1 2:43MEM 4th & 17 at TULN 44, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.2% before the snapGo for it70.9%−0.515% to convertField goal71.1%−0.427% to makePuntTheir call71.4%average punt
- Q2 14:11TULN 4th & 11 at TULN 47, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.1% before the snapGo for it31.0%−0.526% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call31.5%average punt
- Q2 9:52MEM 4th & 17 at TULN 47, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.1% before the snapGo for it62.0%−1.614% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call63.6%average punt
- Q2 8:21TULN 4th & 7 at TULN 15, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.5% before the snapGo for it35.8%−0.835% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call36.6%average punt
- Q2 6:58MEM 4th & 1 at MEM 37, down 7Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 60.1% before the snapGo for it60.8%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call59.2%−1.6average punt
- Q3 9:53TULN 4th & 4 at MEM 46, up 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call47.3%48% to convertField goal44.2%−3.123% to makePunt46.4%−1.0average punt
- Q3 7:54MEM 4th & 17 at MEM 39, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.9% before the snapGo for it49.7%−3.714% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call53.4%average punt
- Q3 2:15TULN 4th & 11 at MEM 39, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.5% before the snapGo for it51.6%−0.127% to convertField goal51.5%−0.136% to makePuntTheir call51.7%average punt
- Q3 1:52MEM 4th & 10 at MEM 5, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.9% before the snapGo for it39.3%−4.125% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call43.3%average punt
- Q4 9:43MEM 4th & 2 at MEM 27, down 19Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call4.7%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt3.9%−0.7average punt
- Q4 4:41TULN 4th & 1 at MEM 26, up 19Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.5%71% to convertField goal97.9%−0.664% to makePunt96.5%−2.0average punt
- Q4 2:01MEM 4th & 7 at TULN 26, down 19Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.0% before the snapGo for it1.5%−0.236% to convertField goalTheir call1.6%64% to makePunt0.8%−0.8average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TULN made the numbers' call on 4 of 5MEM made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
- Q1 9:16TULN Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call22.7%97% to makeGo for two22.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 9:04MEM Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call78.6%97% to makeGo for two78.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 5:40TULN Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call25.6%97% to makeGo for two25.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:50MEM Touchdown, down 4 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call58.0%97% to makeGo for two57.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:00TULN Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call77.8%97% to makeGo for two77.6%−0.345% to convert
- Q4 11:50TULN Touchdown, up 18 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call95.5%−0.297% to makeGo for two95.7%45% to convert
- Q4 8:56TULN Touchdown, up 25 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.6%97% to makeGo for two99.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 7:05MEM Touchdown, down 20 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call2.0%−<0.197% to makeGo for two2.0%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTULNDrive 1TD14 plays · 75 yds · 5:3419% → 24%
Q1 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+18
19.2%
Jonathan Banks pass complete to Darnell Mooney for 18 yds to the Memph 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-3
19.9%
Darius Bradwell run for 7 yds to the Memph 26 TULANE Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the Memph 36Similar
Q1 12:40
1ST & 13
OPP 36
+9
20.2%
Jonathan Banks pass complete to Darnell Mooney for 9 yds to the Memph 27Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 14
OPP 25
+16
21.4%
Jonathan Banks pass complete to Darnell Mooney for 16 yds to the Memph 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 2TD2 plays · 47 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q1 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+47
21.4%
Darrell Henderson run for 47 yds for a TD (Riley Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 3TD7 plays · 75 yds · 3:1522% → 27%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 4PUNT9 plays · 26 yds · 2:4274% → 71%
Q1 5:00
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+30
26.6%
Brady White pass complete to John Pop Williams for 30 yds to the Tulan 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 5PUNT7 plays · 27 yds · 3:2829% → 32%
Q1 1:45
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+21
29.5%
Jonathan Banks pass complete to Stephon Huderson for 21 yds to the Tulan 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:20
2ND & 9
OWN 49
-6
32.2%
Jonathan Banks sacked by Joseph Dorceus for a loss of 6 yards to the Tulan 43Similar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 15
OWN 43
+4
31.5%
Jonathan Banks pass complete to Charles Jones II for 4 yds to the Tulan 47Similar
Q2 14:11
4TH & 11
OWN 47
0
31.5%
Ryan Wright punt for 38 yds, fair catch by John Pop Williams at the Memph 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 6PUNT9 plays · 38 yds · 4:0868% → 63%
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+28
32.2%
Brady White pass complete to Tony Pollard for 28 yds to the Memph 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
31.6%
Brady White pass complete to John Pop Williams for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 12:45
3RD & 5
OWN 48
+12
32.0%
Brady White pass complete to Joey Magnifico for 12 yds to the Tulan 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:25
3RD & 14
OPP 44
-3
35.6%
Brady White sacked by Patrick Johnson for a loss of 3 yards to the Tulan 47Similar
Q2 9:52
4TH & 17
OPP 47
+2
37.2%
Adam Williams punt for 37 yds , Jacob Robertson Jr. returns for 2 yds to the Tulan 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 7PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 1:2337% → 37%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 8PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 1:1762% → 60%
Q2 6:58
4TH & 1
OWN 37
0
40.2%
Adam Williams punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jacob Robertson Jr. at the Tulan 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 9END OF HALF18 plays · 71 yds · 6:5341% → 57%
Q2 6:15
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+7
42.0%
Jonathan Banks pass complete to Jaetavian Toles for 7 yds to the Tulan 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-7
47.9%
Jonathan Banks sacked by Bryce Huff for a loss of 7 yards to the Tulan 44Similar
Q2 1:45
3RD & 8
OPP 47
+10
47.9%
Jonathan Banks pass complete to Jacob Robertson Jr. for 10 yds to the Memph 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 20
OPP 47
-5
48.7%
Jonathan Banks sacked by Bryce Huff for a loss of 5 yards to the Tulan 48Similar
Q2 0:23
3RD & 4
OPP 31
+7
50.3%
Jonathan Banks pass complete to Charles Jones II for 7 yds to the Memph 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 10TD10 plays · 75 yds · 2:0448% → 61%
Q3 14:40
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+19
53.0%
Brady White pass complete to John Pop Williams for 19 yds to the Memph 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
51.2%
Brady White pass complete to Darrell Henderson for 4 yds to the Memph 43Similar
Q3 13:50
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+12
54.4%
Brady White pass complete to Damonte Coxie for 12 yds to the Tulan 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:50
3RD & 8
OPP 43
+43
38.6%
Brady White pass complete to Darrell Henderson for 43 yds for a TD (Riley Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 11DOWNS7 plays · 18 yds · 2:4244% → 47%
Q3 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
44.2%
Jonathan Banks pass complete to Terren Encalade for 9 yds to the Tulan 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 12PUNT4 plays · -7 yds · 1:5559% → 52%
Q3 9:10
2ND & 13
OWN 43
-8
43.7%
Brady White sacked by Cameron Sample for a loss of 8 yards to the Memph 35Similar
Q3 8:30
3RD & 21
OWN 35
+4
47.2%
Brady White pass complete to Damonte Coxie for 4 yds to the Memph 39Similar
Q3 7:54
4TH & 17
OWN 39
+5
47.8%
Adam Williams punt for 36 yds , Jacob Robertson Jr. returns for 5 yds to the Tulan 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 13PUNT12 plays · 31 yds · 5:3548% → 52%
MEMDrive 14PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1846% → 43%
Q3 1:52
4TH & 10
OWN 5
+49
56.7%
Adam Williams punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jacob Robertson Jr. at the Tulan 44 TULANE Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Tulan 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 15TD5 plays · 54 yds · 1:3057% → 77%
MEMDrive 16SF4 plays · -10 yds · 0:1324% → 20%
Q4 14:37
3RD & 10
OWN 10
0
80.1%
Brady White sacked by Juan Monjarres for a loss of 10 yards for a SAFETY Brady White fumbled, recovered by Memph Roger Joseph , return for 0 yards for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 17TD6 plays · 61 yds · 2:2583% → 97%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 18DOWNS5 plays · 8 yds · 1:426% → 5%
Q4 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-5
93.8%
Brady White sacked by Cameron Sample for a loss of 5 yards to the Memph 14Similar
Q4 10:45
2ND & 15
OWN 14
-4
94.3%
Brady White sacked by Robert Kennedy for a loss of 4 yards to the Memph 10Similar
Q4 10:15
3RD & 19
OWN 10
+17
94.6%
Brady White pass complete to Damonte Coxie for 17 yds to the Memph 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 19TD2 plays · 27 yds · 0:3997% → 100%
MEMDrive 20TD9 plays · 69 yds · 1:400% → 6%
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+17
99.7%
Brady White run for 2 yds to the Tulan 45 for a 1ST down TULANE Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (15 Yards) to the Tulan 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+34
99.7%
Brady White pass complete to Sean Dykes for 34 yds to the Tulan 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
94.3%
Brady White pass complete to Tony Pollard for 2 yds for a TD (Riley Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 21DOWNS11 plays · 21 yds · 2:0499% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 22FG10 plays · 47 yds · 2:341% → 1%
Q4 3:55
3RD & 10
OWN 27
+15
99.3%
TULANE Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Memph 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-7
99.2%
Brady White sacked by Carlos Hatcher for a loss of 7 yards to the Memph 35Similar
Q4 3:25
2ND & 17
OWN 35
+21
99.3%
Brady White pass complete to Damonte Coxie for 21 yds to the Tulan 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+15
99.2%
TULANE Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Tulan 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-10
99.1%
Brady White sacked by Juan Monjarres for a loss of 10 yards to the Tulan 39Similar
Q4 2:15
3RD & 20
OPP 39
+13
99.3%
Brady White pass complete to Damonte Coxie for 13 yds to the Tulan 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 23Uncategorized4 plays · -7 yds · 1:2099% → 99%
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:00
Justin McMillan pass complete to Darnell Mooney for 51 yds for a TD (Merek Glover KICK)
+21.1
TD · Q3 12:50
Brady White pass complete to Darrell Henderson for 43 yds for a TD (Riley Patterson KICK)
-14.8
TD · Q4 11:50
Corey Dauphine run for 46 yds for a TD (Merek Glover KICK)
+7.7