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NAVY

Navy 30 at SMU 31

SMU
2018 · Week 4 · Sep 22, 2018 · Gerald J. Ford Stadium
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Win probability · SMU
modelSMU aheadNAVY aheadconfidence bandkey playSMU scoreNAVY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 15:00 · Owen White punt for 44 yds , James Proche returns for a loss of 4 yards to the SMU 36 SMU Penalty, illegal block (Cole Sterns) to the SMU 6
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseTime remainingScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+25.0+12.50−12.5−25.0Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 89Pregame prior−8.7Home team on offense+1.3Time remaining−0.4Score differential+0.5Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 6:38: Garret Lewis pass complete to Mychal Cooper for 25 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK) — NAVY win probability +14.7 pts (now 68%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:25: Bennett Moehring kickoff for 63 yds , Reggie Roberson Jr. return for 98 yds for a TD, (Kevin Robledo KICK) — SMU win probability +21.8 pts (now 54%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q4 12:25: William Brown pass complete to Myron Gailliard for 2 yds for a TD, (Kevin Robledo PAT BLOCKED) — SMU win probability +14.4 pts (now 84%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 6:19: CJ Williams run for 52 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK) — NAVY win probability +34.0 pts (now 56%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  5. TD · OT 0:00: Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 4 yds for a TD, (Ben Hicks pass to Hunter Thedford for Two-Point Conversion) — SMU win probability +57.2 pts (now 85%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SMU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8NAVY made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 9:37SMU 4th & 9 at NAVY 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.1%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.2%
    89% to make
    Punt
    36.4%−0.8
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:31NAVY 4th & 1 at SMU 33, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    62.1%−0.4
    49% to make
    Punt
    62.0%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:10NAVY 4th & 1 at SMU 1, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 57.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.6%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    56.2%−1.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    52.6%−5.0
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:03SMU 4th & 4 at NAVY 11, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.9%
    45% to convert
    Field goal
    38.7%−0.2
    87% to make
    Punt
    34.7%−4.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 1:54NAVY 4th & 19 at NAVY 41, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.9%−2.2
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.0%
    average punt
  6. Q3 15:00NAVY 4th & 6 at NAVY 40, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.9%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.3%
    average punt
  7. Q3 11:45SMU 4th & 1 at SMU 15, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.3 ptsPunted · 50.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.1%−2.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 6:19NAVY 4th & 5 at NAVY 20, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.9%−1.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:27SMU 4th & 1 at NAVY 18, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    55.7%−3.4
    79% to make
    Punt
    45.7%−13.4
    average punt
  10. Q4 15:00SMU 4th & 1 at NAVY 6, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.9%
    69% to convert
    Field goal
    56.4%−5.4
    91% to make
    Punt
    42.0%−19.8
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:25SMU 4th & 2 at NAVY 2, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    63.0%−4.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    46.5%−20.6
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:25NAVY 4th & 14 at NAVY 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.1%−4.5
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.7%
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:25SMU 4th & 9 at SMU 40, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.0%−1.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.8%
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:19SMU 4th & 2 at NAVY 42, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 7.0 ptsPunted · 57.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    50.1%−8.9
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    52.0%−7.0
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:51NAVY 4th & 8 at SMU 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.6%−1.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3NAVY made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q2 13:10NAVY Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:36SMU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 6:38NAVY Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:25SMU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 12:25SMU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    84.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 6:19NAVY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.5%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SMUDrive 1FG
15 plays · 72 yds · 5:2333% → 36%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
33.2%
William Brown pass complete to Braeden West for 6 yds to the SMU 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 25
+11
33.2%
William Brown pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 11 yds to the SMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+14
33.2%
William Brown pass complete to James Proche for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+4
33.2%
Braeden West run for 4 yds to the Navy 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 46
0
33.2%
William Brown pass incomplete to James Proche, broken up by Elan NashSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+7
33.2%
William Brown pass complete to James Proche for 7 yds to the Navy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-1
33.2%
Merek Pierce run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 40
+15
33.2%
Braeden West run for 15 yds to the Navy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
33.2%
Braeden West run for 6 yds to the Navy 19Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+11
33.2%
Braeden West run for 11 yds to the Navy 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
33.2%
Braeden West run for 3 yds to the Navy 5Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
33.2%
William Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 6Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
-3
33.2%
William Brown sacked by Taylor Heflin for a loss of 3 yards to the Navy 9Similar
Q1 9:37
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
36.3%
Kevin Robledo 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 2TD
20 plays · 78 yds · 11:2164% → 64%
Q1 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+10
36.2%
Tre Walker run for 10 yds to the Navy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
36.1%
CJ Williams run for 2 yds to the Navy 34Similar
Q1 9:31
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+10
36.1%
Tre Walker run for 10 yds to the Navy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
35.8%
Nelson Smith run for 8 yds to the SMU 48Similar
Q1 9:31
2ND & 2
OPP 48
+6
35.6%
Malcolm Perry run for 6 yds to the SMU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
35.7%
Malcolm Perry run for 3 yds to the SMU 39Similar
Q1 9:31
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+3
35.7%
Malcolm Perry run for 3 yds to the SMU 36Similar
Q1 9:31
3RD & 4
OPP 36
+3
35.7%
Nelson Smith run for 3 yds to the SMU 33Similar
Q1 9:31
4TH & 1
OPP 33
+3
36.0%
Zach Abey run for 3 yds to the SMU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
35.5%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 2 yds to the SMU 28Similar
Q1 9:31
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+10
35.5%
CJ Williams run for 10 yds to the SMU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-10
35.5%
WILLIAMS, CJ rush for 2 yards to the SMU16 (CLEMONS, Rodney), PENALTY NAVY holding (MITCHELL, Ryan) 10 yards to the SMU28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:31
1ST & 20
OPP 28
+17
35.6%
Malcolm Perry run for 17 yds to the SMU 11Similar
Q1 9:31
2ND & 3
OPP 11
+1
35.5%
Nelson Smith run for 1 yd to the SMU 10Similar
Q1 9:31
3RD & 2
OPP 10
+8
35.7%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 8 yds to the SMU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
38.7%
Zach Abey run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 3Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
38.7%
Zach Abey run for no gain to the SMU 3Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
39.3%
Tre Walker run for 2 yds to the SMU 1Similar
Q2 13:10
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
36.5%
Zach Abey run for 1 yd for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 3DOWNS
7 plays · 55 yds · 0:0037% → 38%
Q2 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
37.2%
William Brown pass complete to Jared Miles for 3 yds to the SMU 37Similar
Q2 13:03
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+46
38.2%
Braeden West run for 46 yds to the Navy 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:03
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
39.6%
William Brown pass incomplete to Reggie Roberson Jr., broken up by Cameron KinleySimilar
Q2 13:03
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+5
39.6%
William Brown run for 5 yds to the Navy 12Similar
Q2 13:03
3RD & 5
OPP 12
+1
38.8%
Merek Pierce run for 1 yd to the Navy 11Similar
Q2 13:03
4TH & 4
OPP 11
0
37.9%
William Brown run for no gain to the Navy 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 4FUMBLE
8 plays · 25 yds · 3:1163% → 63%
Q2 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
37.2%
Nelson Smith run for 4 yds to the Navy 15Similar
Q2 11:03
2ND & 6
OWN 15
+15
37.2%
Tre Walker run for 15 yds to the Navy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
36.9%
Tazh Maloy run for 5 yds to the Navy 35Similar
Q2 11:03
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+8
36.4%
Nelson Smith run for 8 yds to the Navy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-1
35.9%
Keoni-Kordell Makekau run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 42Similar
Q2 7:52
2ND & 11
OWN 42
-4
36.0%
Malcolm Perry sacked by Richard Moore for a loss of 4 yards to the Navy 38Similar
Q2 7:52
3RD & 15
OWN 38
-4
37.2%
Malcolm Perry run for a loss of 4 yards to the Navy 36 Malcolm Perry fumbled, recovered by SMU Demerick GarySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 5TD
6 plays · 36 yds · 2:2941% → 51%
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
40.5%
Braeden West run for 3 yds to the Navy 33Similar
Q2 7:05
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+1
41.6%
William Brown run for 1 yd to the Navy 32Similar
Q2 7:05
3RD & 6
OPP 32
+7
40.4%
William Brown pass complete to James Proche for 7 yds to the Navy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
41.6%
William Brown pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 3 yds to the Navy 22Similar
Q2 7:05
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+2
41.6%
William Brown pass complete to Braeden West for 2 yds to the Navy 20Similar
Q2 4:36
3RD & 5
OPP 20
+20
50.7%
William Brown pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 20 yds for a TD, (Kevin Robledo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 6PUNT
13 plays · 16 yds · 2:4253% → 51%
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
47.5%
Nelson Smith run for 9 yds to the Navy 34Similar
Q2 4:36
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
46.1%
Nelson Smith run for 4 yds to the Navy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-4
46.2%
Malcolm Perry sacked by Richard Moore for a loss of 4 yards to the Navy 34Similar
Q2 4:36
2ND & 14
OWN 34
+13
47.7%
CJ Williams run for 13 yds to the Navy 47Similar
Q2 4:36
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+3
45.3%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
50
-15
45.6%
PERRY, Malcolm pass complete to ABEY, Zach for 50 yards to the SMU0, clock 02:10, PENALTY NAVY personal foul (GARGIULO, A) 15 yards to the NAVY35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:10
1ST & 25
OWN 35
0
48.8%
Malcolm Perry pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:10
2ND & 25
OWN 35
+4
48.9%
Malcolm Perry run for 4 yds to the Navy 39Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 21
OWN 39
+2
48.4%
Nelson Smith run for 2 yds to the Navy 41Similar
Q2 1:54
4TH & 19
OWN 41
+4
49.0%
Owen White punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SMU 30 , James Proche returns for 4 yds to the SMU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 7FUMBLE
10 plays · 50 yds · 1:1949% → 52%
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
48.9%
William Brown pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 4 yds to the SMU 34Similar
Q2 1:45
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+7
49.6%
William Brown pass complete to James Proche for 7 yds to the SMU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
50.9%
William Brown pass complete to Braeden West for 8 yds to the SMU 49Similar
Q2 1:45
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+14
51.7%
Braeden West run for 14 yds to the Navy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
52.1%
William Brown run for 1 yd to the Navy 36Similar
Q2 1:45
2ND & 9
OPP 36
+9
51.9%
William Brown pass complete to Braeden West for 9 yds to the Navy 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
52.5%
Braeden West run for 3 yds to the Navy 24 Braeden West fumbled, forced by Jackson Pittman, recovered by SMU James ProcheSimilar
Q2 0:26
2ND & 7
OPP 24
0
53.7%
William Brown pass incomplete to Reggie Roberson Jr.Similar
Q2 0:26
3RD & 7
OPP 24
+6
52.4%
William Brown run for 6 yds to the Navy 22 William Brown fumbled, forced by Taylor Heflin, recovered by Navy Juan Hailey , return for 2 yds to the Navy 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 8FUMBLE
1 play · 8 yds · 0:0051% → 51%
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
48.7%
Nelson Smith run for 8 yds to the Navy 30 Nelson Smith fumbled, forced by Jordon Williams, recovered by SMU Delano RobinsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 9MISSED FG
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0054% → 54%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+47
54.1%
Kevin Robledo 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:0051% → 50%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
49.0%
Tre Walker run for 3 yds to the Navy 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
48.6%
Nelson Smith run for 8 yds to the Navy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
48.0%
Malcolm Perry run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 34
+6
49.1%
Malcolm Perry run for 6 yds to the Navy 40Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 40
0
47.6%
Malcolm Perry run for no gain to the Navy 40Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 40
-4
49.8%
Owen White punt for 44 yds , James Proche returns for a loss of 4 yards to the SMU 36 SMU Penalty, illegal block (Cole Sterns) to the SMU 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0052% → 50%
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
51.6%
Braeden West run for no gain to the SMU 6Similar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 10
OWN 6
+9
51.4%
Braeden West run for 9 yds to the SMU 15Similar
Q3 11:45
3RD & 1
OWN 15
0
50.5%
Braeden West run for no gain to the SMU 15Similar
Q3 11:45
4TH & 1
OWN 15
0
49.8%
Jamie Sackville punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Jacob Springer at the Navy 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 12TD
8 plays · 62 yds · 3:1950% → 68%
Q3 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
50.1%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 2 yds to the Navy 40Similar
Q3 9:57
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+2
49.6%
Malcolm Perry run for 2 yds to the Navy 42Similar
Q3 9:57
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+13
49.9%
Tre Walker run for 13 yds to the SMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
48.1%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 1 yd to the SMU 44Similar
Q3 9:57
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+5
48.1%
SMU Penalty, offside defense (5 Yards) to the SMU 39Similar
Q3 9:57
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+13
47.7%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 13 yds to the SMU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
46.5%
Garret Lewis run for 1 yd to the SMU 25Similar
Q3 6:38
2ND & 9
OPP 25
+25
31.8%
Garret Lewis pass complete to Mychal Cooper for 25 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:0044% → 42%
Q3 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
55.7%
Malcolm Perry run for 5 yds to the Navy 20Similar
Q3 6:19
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+1
55.3%
Tre Walker run for 1 yd to the Navy 21Similar
Q3 6:19
3RD & 4
OWN 21
-1
56.7%
Malcolm Perry run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 20Similar
Q3 6:19
4TH & 5
OWN 20
+13
58.0%
Owen White punt for 32 yds , James Proche returns for 13 yds to the Navy 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 15DOWNS
11 plays · 33 yds · 4:2762% → 63%
Q3 4:27
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+7
62.3%
Braeden West run for 7 yds to the Navy 32Similar
Q3 4:27
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+5
63.8%
Braeden West run for 5 yds to the Navy 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:27
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
63.8%
William Brown pass complete to James Proche for 2 yds James Proche fumbled, forced by Cameron Kinley,Similar
Q3 4:27
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+6
63.8%
Braeden West run for 6 yds to the Navy 19Similar
Q3 4:27
3RD & 2
OPP 19
-5
62.1%
SMU Penalty, false start (Larry Hughes) to the Navy 24Similar
Q3 4:27
3RD & 7
OPP 24
+6
62.1%
William Brown pass complete to James Proche for 6 yds to the Navy 18Similar
Q3 4:27
4TH & 1
OPP 18
+3
60.4%
Braeden West run for 3 yds to the Navy 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:27
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
63.8%
William Brown pass complete to Braeden West for 4 yds to the Navy 11Similar
Q3 4:27
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+1
63.8%
William Brown run for 1 yd to the Navy 10Similar
Q3 4:27
3RD & 5
OPP 10
+4
62.1%
William Brown pass complete to James Proche for 4 yds to the Navy 6Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 6
0
63.3%
Braeden West run for no gain to the Navy 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 16FUMBLE
3 plays · -4 yds · 0:0038% → 37%
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+2
62.4%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 2 yds to the Navy 8Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 8
OWN 8
+4
62.7%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 4 yds to the Navy 12Similar
Q4 14:53
3RD & 4
OWN 12
-3
62.8%
Garret Lewis run for a loss of 3 yards to the Navy 2 Garret Lewis fumbled, forced by Kyran Mitchell, recovered by SMU Elijah McQueenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 17TD
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:2371% → 87%
Q4 13:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
71.3%
Braeden West run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 3Similar
Q4 13:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
71.3%
Braeden West run for 1 yd to the Navy 2Similar
Q4 13:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
69.5%
William Brown pass incomplete to James ProcheSimilar
Q4 12:25
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
83.9%
William Brown pass complete to Myron Gailliard for 2 yds for a TD, (Kevin Robledo PAT BLOCKED)Similar
Q4 12:25
1ST & 0
OPP 3
0
86.8%
Jarid Ryan return for defensive PATSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 6 yds · 0:0022% → 20%
Q4 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
77.7%
Zach Abey run for 3 yds to the Navy 28Similar
Q4 12:25
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
77.1%
Tre Walker run for 6 yds to the Navy 34Similar
Q4 12:25
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
76.7%
Garret Lewis run for 1 yd to the Navy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-3
76.9%
Garret Lewis run for a loss of 3 yards to the Navy 32Similar
Q4 12:25
2ND & 13
OWN 32
-1
78.0%
Garret Lewis sacked by Kyran Mitchell and Jordon Williams for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 31Similar
Q4 12:25
3RD & 14
OWN 31
0
79.2%
Garret Lewis pass incomplete to Tazh MaloySimilar
Q4 12:25
4TH & 14
OWN 31
+23
79.7%
Owen White punt for 53 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SMU 39 , James Proche returns for 23 yds to the SMU 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0087% → 85%
Q4 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
86.6%
Braeden West run for 1 yd to the SMU 40Similar
Q4 9:25
2ND & 9
OWN 40
0
86.5%
William Brown pass incomplete to Reggie Roberson Jr.Similar
Q4 9:25
3RD & 9
OWN 40
0
85.5%
William Brown pass incomplete to Reggie Roberson Jr., broken up by Cameron KinleySimilar
Q4 9:25
4TH & 9
OWN 40
0
84.6%
Jamie Sackville punt for 41 yds, downed at the Navy 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 20TD
5 plays · 81 yds · 2:0619% → 56%
Q4 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
80.9%
Garret Lewis run for 1 yd to the Navy 20Similar
Q4 8:25
2ND & 9
OWN 20
+13
81.1%
Garret Lewis run for 13 yds to the Navy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+12
79.8%
Garret Lewis run for 12 yds to the Navy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
78.2%
Garret Lewis run for 3 yds to the Navy 48Similar
Q4 6:19
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+52
44.3%
CJ Williams run for 52 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 0:0057% → 59%
Q4 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
57.0%
Reggie Roberson Jr. run for 5 yds to the SMU 40Similar
Q4 6:19
2ND & 5
OWN 40
-3
60.6%
Braeden West run for a loss of 3 yards to the SMU 37Similar
Q4 6:19
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+13
55.8%
William Brown pass complete to Judah Bell for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:19
1ST & 10
50
+3
61.6%
Braeden West run for 3 yds to the Navy 47Similar
Q4 6:19
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+5
62.1%
William Brown pass complete to Ryan Becker for 5 yds to the Navy 42Similar
Q4 6:19
3RD & 2
OPP 42
0
61.6%
William Brown pass incomplete to Myron GailliardSimilar
Q4 6:19
4TH & 2
OPP 42
0
59.2%
Jamie Sackville punt for 28 yds, fair catch by CJ Williams at the Navy 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 22PUNT
12 plays · 37 yds · 2:5149% → 48%
Q4 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+7
50.6%
Garret Lewis run for 7 yds to the Navy 21Similar
Q4 3:42
2ND & 3
OWN 21
+5
49.6%
Nelson Smith run for 5 yds to the Navy 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
50.1%
Garret Lewis run for 7 yds to the Navy 33Similar
Q4 3:42
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+3
47.0%
Garret Lewis run for 3 yds to the Navy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
48.3%
Garret Lewis run for 1 yd to the Navy 37Similar
Q4 3:42
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+1
48.7%
Dalen Morris run for 1 yd to the Navy 38Similar
Q4 3:42
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+11
48.6%
Garret Lewis run for 11 yds to the Navy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-2
44.4%
Garret Lewis run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 47Similar
Q4 0:51
2ND & 12
OWN 47
+4
48.5%
CJ Williams run for 4 yds to the SMU 49Similar
Q4 0:51
3RD & 8
OPP 49
0
47.3%
Garret Lewis pass incomplete to Taylor JacksonSimilar
Q4 0:51
4TH & 8
OPP 49
+30
51.6%
Owen White punt for 40 yds , James Proche returns for 30 yds to the SMU 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 23END OF GAME
3 plays · 13 yds · 0:0561% → 65%
Q4 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+13
61.1%
William Brown pass complete to James Proche for 13 yds to the Navy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
65.0%
William Brown pass incomplete to Judah Bell, broken up by Jarid RyanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 24TD
9 plays · 25 yds · 0:0060% → 74%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
40.5%
CJ Williams run for 1 yd to the SMU 24Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+1
40.5%
Garret Lewis run for 1 yd to the SMU 23Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 8
OPP 23
+8
43.7%
Garret Lewis run for 8 yds to the SMU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
40.5%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 5 yds to the SMU 10Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 10
+4
40.5%
Garret Lewis run for 4 yds to the SMU 6Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 1
OPP 6
+1
42.6%
Garret Lewis run for 1 yd to the SMU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
40.5%
Garret Lewis run for 4 yds to the SMU 1Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
25.7%
Garret Lewis run for no gain to the SMU 1 Garret Lewis run for 1 yd for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 25TD
7 plays · 25 yds · 0:0028% → 85%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+11
28.1%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Braeden West for 11 yds to the Navy 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
28.1%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Treveon Johnson for 1 yd to the Navy 13Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+6
28.1%
Braeden West run for 6 yds to the Navy 7Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 7
+2
25.8%
Braeden West run for 2 yds to the Navy 5Similar
OT 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 5
+1
23.2%
Braeden West run for 1 yd to the Navy 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
28.1%
Braeden West run for no gain to the Navy 4Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
85.3%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 4 yds for a TD, (Ben Hicks pass to Hunter Thedford for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · OT 0:00
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 4 yds for a TD, (Ben Hicks pass to Hunter Thedford for Two-Point Conversion)
+57.2
TD · Q4 6:19
CJ Williams run for 52 yds for a TD, (Bennett Moehring KICK)
-34
TD · Q3 6:25
Bennett Moehring kickoff for 63 yds , Reggie Roberson Jr. return for 98 yds for a TD, (Kevin Robledo KICK)
+21.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com