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USA

South Alabama 35 at Memphis 52

MEM
2018 · Week 4 · Sep 22, 2018 · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium
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Win probability · MEM
modelMEM aheadUSA aheadconfidence bandkey playMEM scoreUSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 7:57 · Adam Williams punt for 58 yds, downed at the SAlab 13
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+47.5+23.80−23.8−47.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 71Pregame prior+37.5Home team on offense+4.3Garbage-time factor+1.5Score differential+1.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:59: Evan Orth pass complete to Zac Crosby for 11 yds for a TD (Gavin Patterson KICK) — USA win probability +7.6 pts (now 15%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 5:39: Evan Orth pass complete to Kawaan Baker for 13 yds for a TD SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, false start (Roy Albritton) to the Memph 8 (Gavin Patterson PAT BLOCKED) — USA win probability +8.5 pts (now 18%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q4 13:32: Tony Pollard run for 16 yds for a TD (Riley Patterson KICK) — MEM win probability +7.3 pts (now 95%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 7:30: Evan Orth pass complete to Jamarius Way for 4 yds for a TD (Evan Orth pass to Jamarius Way for Two-Point Conversion) — USA win probability +6.1 pts (now 9%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:35: Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 11 yds for a TD (Riley Patterson KICK) — MEM win probability +4.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MEM made the numbers' call on 5 of 6USA made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 2:22MEM 4th & 18 at USA 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.0%−0.2
    12% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.1%
    62% to make
    Punt
    93.7%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:22USA 4th & 14 at USA 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.6%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.8%
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:03USA 4th & 6 at USA 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.4%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 7:57MEM 4th & 16 at MEM 29, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.7%−0.5
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 0:16MEM 4th & 10 at USA 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.6%−<0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.7%
    average punt
  6. Q3 11:26USA 4th & 9 at USA 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.8%−0.7
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.5%
    average punt
  7. Q3 7:48MEM 4th & 2 at USA 24, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 91.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.7%−0.5
    68% to make
    Punt
    87.9%−3.4
    average punt
  8. Q3 5:37MEM 4th & 2 at MEM 41, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    86.3%−0.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:44USA 4th & 2 at MEM 8, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.1%
    54% to convert
    Field goal
    16.1%−1.0
    90% to make
    Punt
    10.7%−6.4
    average punt
  10. Q4 13:32USA 4th & 16 at USA 19, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.3%−0.8
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.1%
    average punt
  11. Q4 11:16USA 4th & 5 at USA 30, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.1%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:27MEM 4th & 12 at MEM 32, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.7%−0.5
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:16USA 4th & 20 at MEM 37, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.6%−0.3
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    1.8%
    40% to make
    Punt
    1.6%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MEM made the numbers' call on 7 of 7USA made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 10:15USA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:15MEM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:08MEM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:21MEM Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 7:59USA Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:59USA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 11:32MEM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 5:39USA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    15.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 13:32MEM Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 11:16MEM Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 7:30USA Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    5.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    5.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 2:35MEM Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.9%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USADrive 1TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:453% → 4%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
97.2%
Evan Orth run for 4 yds to the SAlab 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
97.2%
Evan Orth pass complete to Jamarius Way for 5 yds to the SAlab 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
97.2%
Tra Minter run for 1 yd to the SAlab 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
97.2%
Evan Orth pass complete to Sam Harris for 11 yds to the SAlab 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
97.2%
Evan Orth pass incomplete to Jamarius Way, broken up by Tito WindhamSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+3
97.2%
Tra Minter run for 3 yds to the SAlab 49Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+27
97.2%
Evan Orth pass complete to Jamarius Way for 27 yds to the Memph 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
97.2%
Deonta Moore run for 2 yds to the Memph 22Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 22
+4
97.2%
Evan Orth run for 4 yds to the Memph 18Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 0
+5
97.2%
Deonta Moore run for 5 yds to the Memph 13 for a 1ST down SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the Memph 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
96.2%
Kawaan Baker run for 13 yds for a TD, (Gavin Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 2TD
10 plays · 68 yds · 2:5596% → 96%
Q1 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-4
96.2%
Darrell Henderson run for 6 yds to the Memph 38 MEMPHIS Penalty, Offensive holding (Roger Joseph) to the Memph 28Similar
Q1 10:10
1ST & 14
OWN 28
+9
96.2%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 9 yds to the Memph 37Similar
Q1 10:10
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+2
96.3%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 2 yds to the Memph 39Similar
Q1 10:10
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+4
96.3%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 4 yds to the Memph 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+25
96.3%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 25 yds to the SAlab 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
96.3%
Brady White pass complete to Damonte Coxie for 9 yds to the SAlab 23Similar
Q1 10:10
2ND & 1
OPP 23
+8
96.3%
Tony Pollard run for 8 yds to the SAlab 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
96.3%
Darrell Henderson run for 2 yds to the SAlab 13Similar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+13
96.1%
Darrell Henderson run for 13 yds for a TD, (Riley Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 3FUMBLE
5 plays · 70 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
95.9%
Tra Minter run for 8 yds to the SAlab 33Similar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
95.8%
Kawaan Baker run for 3 yds to the SAlab 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+63
95.8%
Evan Orth pass complete to Jamarius Way for 63 yds to the Memph 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-4
95.7%
Evan Orth run for a loss of 4 yards to the Memph 5 Evan Orth fumbled, recovered by Memph Austin HallSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 4MISSED FG
8 plays · 68 yds · 3:3696% → 95%
Q1 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+50
95.6%
Darrell Henderson run for 50 yds to the SAlab 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
95.8%
Darrell Henderson run for no gain to the SAlab 45Similar
Q1 5:58
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+26
95.8%
Brady White pass complete to Darrell Henderson for 26 yds to the SAlab 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-10
95.8%
TAYLOR, Patrick rush for 10 yards to the USA9 (Lawrence, Nigel;Barge, Bull), PENALTY MEM holding (PARHAM, Dylan) 10 yards to the USA29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:58
1ST & 20
OPP 29
+5
95.8%
Brady White pass complete to Mechane Slade for 5 yds to the SAlab 24Similar
Q1 5:58
2ND & 15
OPP 24
+4
95.8%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 4 yds to the SAlab 20Similar
Q1 5:58
3RD & 11
OPP 20
-7
95.8%
Brady White sacked by Sterrling Fisher for a loss of 7 yards to the SAlab 27Similar
Q1 2:22
4TH & 18
OPP 27
+44
94.6%
Riley Patterson 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q1 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-5
94.6%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the SAlab 22Similar
Q1 2:22
1ST & 15
OWN 22
-3
94.6%
Tra Minter run for a loss of 3 yards to the SAlab 19Similar
Q1 2:22
2ND & 18
OWN 19
+4
94.6%
Evan Orth pass complete to Sam Harris for 4 yds to the SAlab 23Similar
Q1 2:22
3RD & 14
OWN 23
0
94.7%
Evan Orth pass incomplete to Sam HarrisSimilar
Q1 2:22
4TH & 14
OWN 23
+18
94.8%
Corliss Waitman punt for 53 yds , John Pop Williams returns for 18 yds to the Memph 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 6TD
10 plays · 58 yds · 2:4495% → 95%
Q1 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
94.6%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 6 yds to the Memph 48Similar
Q1 0:52
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+11
94.7%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 11 yds to the SAlab 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+14
94.5%
Brady White pass complete to Damonte Coxie for 14 yds to the SAlab 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
94.6%
Darrell Henderson pass incomplete, broken up by A.J. DeShazorSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+2
94.6%
Darrell Henderson run for 2 yds to the SAlab 25Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 25
+13
94.4%
WHITE, Brady pass incomplete to COXIE, Damonte, PENALTY USA face mask (Mills, Darian) 13 yards to the USA12, 1ST DOWN MEM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+9
94.6%
Darrell Henderson run for 9 yds to the SAlab 3Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 3
0
94.6%
Brady White pass incomplete to Mechane Slade, broken up by Jalen ThompsonSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 3
+2
94.4%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 2 yds to the SAlab 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
95.2%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Riley Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q2 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
94.8%
Kawaan Baker run for 3 yds to the SAlab 19Similar
Q2 13:03
2ND & 7
OWN 19
+1
94.8%
Evan Orth pass complete to Jamarius Way for 1 yd to the SAlab 20Similar
Q2 13:03
3RD & 6
OWN 20
0
94.9%
Evan Orth pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:03
4TH & 6
OWN 20
0
95.0%
Corliss Waitman punt for 48 yds, downed at the Memph 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 8TD
4 plays · 68 yds · 1:3495% → 96%
Q2 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+12
94.7%
Brady White pass complete to John Pop Williams for 12 yds to the Memph 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+14
94.9%
Brady White pass complete to Tony Pollard for 14 yds to the SAlab 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+17
95.0%
Brady White pass complete to Joey Magnifico for 17 yds to the SAlab 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
96.3%
Brady White pass complete to John Pop Williams for 25 yds for a TD (Riley Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 9TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:224% → 7%
Q2 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
95.7%
Tra Minter run for 1 yd to the SAlab 26Similar
Q2 10:21
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+62
95.7%
Evan Orth pass complete to Jahmmir Taylor for 62 yds to the Memph 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
95.2%
Tra Minter run for 3 yds to the Memph 9Similar
Q2 10:21
2ND & 7
OPP 9
-4
95.2%
Evan Orth sacked by John Tate IV for a loss of 4 yards to the Memph 13Similar
Q2 10:21
3RD & 11
OPP 13
+11
95.4%
Orth, Evan pass incomplete to Way, Jamarius, PENALTY MEM pass interference (WINDHAM, Tito) 11 yards to the MEM2, 1ST DOWN USA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
92.9%
Tra Minter run for 2 yds for a TD (Gavin Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q2 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
94.1%
Brady White pass incomplete to Patrick Taylor Jr.Similar
Q2 7:57
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-7
94.1%
Brady White run for a loss of 7 yards to the Memph 28Similar
Q2 7:57
3RD & 17
OWN 28
+1
93.8%
Brady White pass complete to Kedarian Jones for 1 yd to the Memph 29Similar
Q2 7:57
4TH & 16
OWN 29
0
93.6%
Adam Williams punt for 58 yds, downed at the SAlab 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 11TD
11 plays · 87 yds · 5:137% → 15%
Q2 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
93.5%
Deonta Moore run for 2 yds to the SAlab 15Similar
Q2 6:12
2ND & 8
OWN 15
0
93.5%
Evan Orth run for no gain to the SAlab 15Similar
Q2 6:12
3RD & 8
OWN 15
+8
93.8%
Evan Orth pass complete to Jordan McCray for 8 yds to the SAlab 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
93.5%
Tra Minter run for 3 yds to the SAlab 26Similar
Q2 6:12
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+21
93.4%
Evan Orth pass complete to Kawaan Baker for 21 yds to the SAlab 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-3
92.9%
Tra Minter run for a loss of 3 yards to the SAlab 44Similar
Q2 6:12
2ND & 13
OWN 44
+10
93.3%
Evan Orth pass complete to Jahmmir Taylor for 10 yds to the Memph 46Similar
Q2 6:12
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+26
92.9%
Evan Orth pass complete to Jamarius Way for 26 yds to the Memph 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
92.4%
Evan Orth pass complete to Jamarius Way for 7 yds to the Memph 13Similar
Q2 6:12
2ND & 3
OPP 13
+2
92.4%
Maurice Mayo run for 2 yds to the Memph 11Similar
Q2 0:59
3RD & 1
OPP 11
+11
84.7%
Evan Orth pass complete to Zac Crosby for 11 yds for a TD (Gavin Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 12PUNT
9 plays · 16 yds · 0:3789% → 88%
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
88.6%
Brady White pass incomplete to Damonte CoxieSimilar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+16
88.4%
Brady White pass complete to Damonte Coxie for 16 yds to the SAlab 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
89.2%
Brady White pass incomplete to Tony PollardSimilar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
89.0%
Brady White pass incomplete to Darrell Henderson, broken up by Nigel LawrenceSimilar
Q2 0:32
3RD & 10
OPP 47
0
88.2%
Brady White pass incomplete to Darrell HendersonSimilar
Q2 0:16
4TH & 10
OPP 47
0
87.5%
Adam Williams punt for 46 yds, downed at the SAlab 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
87.2%
Tra Minter run for 2 yds to the SAlab 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 14TD
10 plays · 61 yds · 3:2488% → 92%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
88.3%
Darrell Henderson run for 2 yds to the Memph 41Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+12
88.5%
Darrell Henderson run for 12 yds to the SAlab 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-1
89.1%
Darrell Henderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 48Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 11
OPP 48
+6
88.8%
Tony Pollard run for 6 yds to the SAlab 42Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 5
OPP 42
+10
88.8%
Brady White pass complete to Damonte Coxie for 10 yds to the SAlab 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
89.4%
Darrell Henderson run for 6 yds to the SAlab 26Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 4
OPP 26
+11
89.4%
Darrell Henderson run for 11 yds to the SAlab 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-3
89.4%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the SAlab 18Similar
Q3 11:32
2ND & 13
OPP 18
+18
92.3%
Brady White pass complete to Damonte Coxie for 18 yds for a TD (Riley Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q3 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
90.7%
Deonta Moore run for 5 yds to the SAlab 31Similar
Q3 11:26
2ND & 5
OWN 31
-4
90.3%
Evan Orth pass complete to Jordan McCray for a loss of 4 yards to the SAlab 27Similar
Q3 11:26
3RD & 9
OWN 27
0
91.2%
Evan Orth pass incomplete to Jordan McCraySimilar
Q3 11:26
4TH & 9
OWN 27
0
91.5%
Corliss Waitman punt for 43 yds, fair catch by John Pop Williams at the Memph 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 16FG
6 plays · 46 yds · 2:2291% → 92%
Q3 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
90.9%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 3 yds to the Memph 33Similar
Q3 10:10
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+35
91.0%
Brady White pass complete to Joey Magnifico for 35 yds to the SAlab 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
92.0%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 5 yds to the SAlab 27Similar
Q3 10:10
2ND & 5
OPP 27
0
92.0%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for no gain to the SAlab 27Similar
Q3 10:10
3RD & 5
OPP 27
+3
91.6%
Brady White pass complete to Damonte Coxie for 3 yds to the SAlab 24Similar
Q3 7:48
4TH & 2
OPP 24
+42
92.4%
Riley Patterson 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 17TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:098% → 18%
Q3 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
92.2%
Maurice Mayo run for 8 yds to the SAlab 33Similar
Q3 7:48
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+11
91.6%
Tra Minter run for 11 yds to the SAlab 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+29
91.6%
Evan Orth pass complete to Jamarius Way for 29 yds to the Memph 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
90.5%
Maurice Mayo run for 1 yd to the Memph 26Similar
Q3 7:48
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+13
90.7%
Kawaan Baker run for 13 yds to the Memph 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
82.2%
Evan Orth pass complete to Kawaan Baker for 13 yds for a TD SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, false start (Roy Albritton) to the Memph 8 (Gavin Patterson PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 18DOWNS
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q3 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
86.9%
Brady White pass complete to Tony Pollard for 4 yds to the Memph 37Similar
Q3 5:37
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+4
87.6%
Brady White pass complete to Tony Pollard for 4 yds to the Memph 41Similar
Q3 5:37
3RD & 2
OWN 41
0
87.4%
Brady White pass incomplete to Tony PollardSimilar
Q3 5:37
4TH & 2
OWN 41
-6
86.7%
Jonathan Wilson run for a loss of 6 yards to the Memph 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 19DOWNS
8 plays · 27 yds · 0:0017% → 15%
Q3 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
83.4%
Deonta Moore run for 2 yds to the Memph 33Similar
Q3 4:44
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+2
83.4%
Deonta Moore run for 2 yds to the Memph 31Similar
Q3 4:44
3RD & 6
OPP 31
+15
84.6%
Evan Orth run for 15 yds to the Memph 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
83.3%
Tra Minter run for 6 yds to the Memph 10Similar
Q3 4:44
2ND & 4
OPP 10
+1
83.3%
Kawaan Baker run for 1 yd to the Memph 9Similar
Q3 4:44
3RD & 3
OPP 9
+1
84.4%
Tra Minter run for 1 yd to the Memph 8Similar
Q3 4:44
4TH & 2
OPP 8
0
85.4%
Tra Minter run for no gain to the Memph 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 20TD
8 plays · 92 yds · 2:5285% → 95%
Q3 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
85.2%
Darrell Henderson run for no gain to the Memph 8Similar
Q3 1:24
2ND & 10
OWN 8
-4
85.0%
MEMPHIS Penalty, false start (Dylan Parham) to the Memph 4Similar
Q3 1:24
2ND & 14
OWN 4
+39
85.0%
Brady White pass complete to Damonte Coxie for 39 yds to the Memph 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
86.9%
Darrell Henderson run for a loss of 5 yards to the Memph 38Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 38
+19
85.5%
Brady White pass complete to John Pop Williams for 19 yds to the SAlab 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
87.3%
Darrell Henderson run for 4 yds to the SAlab 39Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+23
87.4%
Brady White pass complete to Darrell Henderson for 8 yds to the SAlab 31 for a 1ST down SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, roughing passer (Malcolm Buggs) to the SAlab 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
94.7%
Tony Pollard run for 16 yds for a TD (Riley Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:007% → 6%
Q4 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
93.5%
Evan Orth pass complete to Jamarius Way for 8 yds to the SAlab 33 SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Max Charite) to the SAlab 18Similar
Q4 13:32
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+1
93.8%
Maurice Mayo run for 1 yd to the SAlab 19Similar
Q4 13:32
3RD & 16
OWN 19
0
94.0%
Evan Orth pass incomplete to Tra MinterSimilar
Q4 13:32
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
94.2%
Corliss Waitman punt for 45 yds, fair catch by John Pop Williams at the Memph 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 22TD
3 plays · 64 yds · 1:0994% → 99%
Q4 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
94.1%
Darrell Henderson run for 9 yds to the Memph 45Similar
Q4 12:25
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+1
94.5%
Darrell Henderson run for 1 yd to the Memph 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+54
98.5%
Darrell Henderson run for 54 yds for a TD (Riley Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
97.9%
Evan Orth pass complete to Deonta Moore for 5 yds to the SAlab 30Similar
Q4 11:16
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
97.7%
Evan Orth pass incomplete to Sam HarrisSimilar
Q4 11:16
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
97.8%
Evan Orth pass incomplete to Kawaan BakerSimilar
Q4 11:16
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
97.9%
Corliss Waitman punt for 36 yds, fair catch by John Pop Williams at the Memph 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
98.4%
Brady White pass complete to John Pop Williams for 6 yds to the Memph 40Similar
Q4 10:27
2ND & 4
OWN 40
0
98.5%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for no gain to the Memph 40Similar
Q4 10:27
3RD & 4
OWN 40
-8
98.5%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for a loss of 8 yards to the Memph 32Similar
Q4 10:27
4TH & 12
OWN 32
0
98.3%
Adam Williams punt blocked by Zac Crosby blocked by Zac CrosbySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 25TD
4 plays · 19 yds · 1:063% → 9%
Q4 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
97.3%
Evan Orth pass complete to Kawaan Baker for 1 yd to the Memph 18Similar
Q4 8:36
2ND & 9
OPP 18
0
97.3%
Evan Orth pass incomplete to Jordan McCraySimilar
Q4 8:36
3RD & 9
OPP 18
+14
97.7%
Evan Orth pass complete to Kawaan Baker for 14 yds to the Memph 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
91.5%
Evan Orth pass complete to Jamarius Way for 4 yds for a TD (Evan Orth pass to Jamarius Way for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 26TD
10 plays · 44 yds · 4:5594% → 99%
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
94.3%
Brady White pass complete to John Pop Williams for 3 yds to the SAlab 41Similar
Q4 7:30
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+3
94.3%
Darrell Henderson run for 3 yds to the SAlab 38Similar
Q4 7:30
3RD & 4
OPP 38
+4
94.2%
Brady White pass complete to Damonte Coxie for 4 yds to the SAlab 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
94.5%
Darrell Henderson run for 2 yds to the SAlab 32Similar
Q4 7:30
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+8
94.6%
Darrell Henderson run for 8 yds to the SAlab 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
94.6%
Darrell Henderson run for no gain to the SAlab 24Similar
Q4 7:30
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+3
94.5%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 3 yds to the SAlab 21Similar
Q4 7:30
3RD & 7
OPP 21
+10
94.3%
WHITE, Brady pass incomplete to GIBSON, Antonio, PENALTY USA pass interference (Thompson, Jalen) 10 yards to the USA11, 1ST DOWN MEM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
98.8%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 11 yds for a TD (Riley Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 27FUMBLE
6 plays · 13 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 2:16
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-15
97.8%
Orth, Evan pass complete to Way, Jamarius for 27 yards to the MEM0, clock 02:16, PENALTY USA pass interference (Way, Jamarius) 15 yards to the MEM42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:16
1ST & 25
OPP 42
-4
98.1%
Evan Orth pass complete to Deonta Moore for a loss of 4 yards to the Memph 46Similar
Q4 2:16
2ND & 29
OPP 46
-6
98.3%
Evan Orth sacked by Joseph Dorceus for a loss of 6 yards to the SAlab 48Similar
Q4 2:16
3RD & 35
OWN 48
+15
98.4%
Evan Orth pass complete to Jamarius Way for 15 yds to the Memph 37Similar
Q4 2:16
4TH & 20
OPP 37
+22
98.3%
Evan Orth pass complete to Sam Harris for 22 yds Sam Harris fumbled, forced by Austin Hall, recovered by Memph Jacobi FrancisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 28Uncategorized
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-2
98.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Memph 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:39
Evan Orth pass complete to Kawaan Baker for 13 yds for a TD SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, false start (Roy Albritton) to the Memph 8 (Gavin Patterson PAT BLOCKED)
-8.5
TD · Q2 0:59
Evan Orth pass complete to Zac Crosby for 11 yds for a TD (Gavin Patterson KICK)
-7.6
TD · Q4 13:32
Tony Pollard run for 16 yds for a TD (Riley Patterson KICK)
+7.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com