2018 · Week 4 · Sep 22, 2018 · TDECU Stadium
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Win probability · HOU
modelHOU aheadTXSO aheadconfidence bandkey playHOU scoreTXSO score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:21 · Aaron Cuevas punt for 50 yds , Bryson Smith returns for 12 yds to the Houst 33
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 14:21: Kevrin Justice run for 1 yd for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK) — HOU win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 9:11: D'Eriq King pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 10 yds for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK) — HOU win probability +0.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 2:22: Chandler Smith run for 2 yds for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK) — HOU win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 6:08: Terio Brown run for 1 yd for a TD (Aaron Cuevas KICK) — TXSO win probability +0.1 pts (now 0%) (top driver: TXSO has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
HOU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4TXSO made the numbers' call on 11 of 11
- Q1 15:00TXSO 4th & 7 at TXSO 24, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.3%−0.135% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.3%average punt
- Q1 12:46TXSO 4th & 2 at HOU 20, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.3%57% to convertField goal0.2%−0.175% to makePunt-0.2%−0.5average punt
- Q1 7:08HOU 4th & 3 at TXSO 47, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.6%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt99.5%−0.1average punt
- Q2 15:00TXSO 4th & 7 at TXSO 45, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snapGo for it0.7%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.7%average punt
- Q2 14:21TXSO 4th & 12 at TXSO 29, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.4%−0.122% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.5%average punt
- Q2 8:11TXSO 4th & 10 at TXSO 36, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q2 0:57TXSO 4th & 5 at TXSO 46, down 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q3 12:38TXSO 4th & 13 at TXSO 18, down 49Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.119% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q3 11:16HOU 4th & 5 at TXSO 31, up 49Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%41% to convertField goal99.9%−<0.154% to makePunt99.8%−0.1average punt
- Q3 6:08HOU 4th & 4 at TXSO 29, up 42Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%48% to convertField goal99.9%−<0.158% to makePunt99.5%−0.4average punt
- Q4 15:00TXSO 4th & 18 at TXSO 48, down 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.113% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 12:26TXSO 4th & 18 at TXSO 17, down 49Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it-0.1%−0.212% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 9:33TXSO 4th & 10 at TXSO 25, down 56Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 8:04HOU 4th & 8 at TXSO 10, up 56Close callWent for it · 100.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%−<0.128% to convertField goal99.9%88% to makePunt99.5%−0.4average punt
- Q4 4:35TXSO 4th & 8 at TXSO 35, down 56Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
HOU made the numbers' call on 10 of 10TXSO made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 12:46HOU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:48HOU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.5%97% to makeGo for two99.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:21HOU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:11HOU Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:11HOU Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:22HOU Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:38HOU Touchdown, up 48 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 6:08TXSO Touchdown, down 43 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.2%97% to makeGo for two0.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 12:26HOU Touchdown, up 48 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 9:33HOU Touchdown, up 55 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 4:50TXSO Touchdown, down 50 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.1%97% to makeGo for two0.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 4:35HOU Touchdown, up 55 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTXSODrive 1PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 2TD6 plays · 51 yds · 1:13100% → 100%
Q1 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+15
99.8%
KING, D'Eriq deep pass incomplete to SMITH, Bryson, PENALTY TSU pass interference (Daigle,Marquel) 15 yards to the TSU36, 1ST DOWN HOU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:59
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+8
99.8%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 8 yds to the TexSo 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:59
2ND & 2
OPP 17
+11
99.8%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 11 yds to the TexSo 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSODrive 3DOWNS14 plays · 55 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q1 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
99.8%
Glen Cuiellette pass complete to Bobby Hartzog Jr. for 10 yds to the TexSo 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:46
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+2
99.8%
Glen Cuiellette pass complete to Bobby Hartzog Jr. for 2 yds to the TexSo 42Similar
Q1 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+11
99.8%
Glen Cuiellette pass complete to Tariq Buchanan for 11 yds to the Houst 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:46
3RD & 9
OPP 42
+5
99.8%
HOUSTON Penalty, Defensive offside (Emeke Egbule) to the Houst 37Similar
Q1 12:46
3RD & 4
OPP 37
+9
99.8%
Glen Cuiellette pass complete to Tariq Buchanan for 9 yds to the Houst 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 4TD14 plays · 80 yds · 4:20100% → 100%
Q1 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
99.6%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Courtney Lark for 3 yds to the Houst 33Similar
Q1 7:08
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+13
99.6%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Terry Mark for 13 yds to the Houst 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:08
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+6
99.6%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Keith Corbin for 6 yds to the TexSo 47Similar
Q1 7:08
4TH & 3
OPP 47
+7
99.6%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Courtney Lark for 7 yds to the TexSo 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:08
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+11
99.6%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Courtney Lark for 11 yds to the TexSo 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-11
99.6%
D'Eriq King run for a loss of 11 yards to the TexSo 40 D'Eriq King fumbled, recovered by Houst D'Eriq KingSimilar
Q1 7:08
2ND & 27
OPP 40
+20
99.6%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 20 yds to the TexSo 20Similar
Q1 7:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
99.6%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Marquez Stevenson, broken up by Marquis WalkerSimilar
Q1 2:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
99.6%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Keith Corbin for 8 yds for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSODrive 5PUNT10 plays · 20 yds · 2:480% → 1%
Q1 2:48
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+17
99.6%
Glen Cuiellette pass complete to Bobby Hartzog Jr. for 17 yds to the TexSo 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:48
1ST & 20
OWN 32
+7
99.6%
Glen Cuiellette pass complete to Malik Webb for 7 yds to the TexSo 39Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 45
0
99.5%
Aaron Cuevas punt blocked by Payton Turner blocked by Payton TurnerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 6TD3 plays · 18 yds · 0:31100% → 100%
TXSODrive 7PUNT8 plays · 8 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q2 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
99.6%
Glen Cuiellette pass complete to Chris Long for 9 yds to the TexSo 30Similar
Q2 14:21
3RD & 12
OWN 29
0
99.7%
Glen Cuiellette pass incomplete to Bobby Hartzog Jr., broken up by Gleson SprewellSimilar
Q2 14:21
4TH & 12
OWN 29
+12
99.7%
Aaron Cuevas punt for 50 yds , Bryson Smith returns for 12 yds to the Houst 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 8TD7 plays · 67 yds · 2:20100% → 100%
Q2 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+17
99.6%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:31
1ST & 10
50
+10
99.6%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Courtney Lark for 10 yds to the TexSo 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
99.6%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Bryson Smith for no gain to the TexSo 40Similar
Q2 9:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
99.8%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 10 yds for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 10TD3 plays · 21 yds · 0:50100% → 100%
TXSODrive 11PUNT8 plays · 11 yds · 0:000% → 0%
HOUDrive 12TD12 plays · 83 yds · 3:40100% → 100%
Q2 6:02
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+1
99.8%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 1 yd to the Houst 29Similar
Q2 6:02
3RD & 9
OWN 29
+15
99.8%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Keith Corbin for 15 yds to the Houst 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:02
2ND & 4
50
+17
99.8%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Keith Corbin for 17 yds to the TexSo 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+14
99.8%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Courtney Lark for 14 yds Courtney Lark fumbled, forced by Matthew Stephenson, recovered by Houst for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+10
99.8%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Terry Mark for 10 yds to the TexSo 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
99.9%
SMITH, Chandler rush left for 1 yard to the TSU7 (Khepera,Mene), PENALTY TSU offside 4 yards to the TSU4, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSODrive 13PUNT9 plays · 21 yds · 1:250% → 0%
HOUDrive 14INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
TXSODrive 15END OF HALF5 plays · -3 yds · 0:300% → 0%
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-10
99.9%
Cuiellette,Glen sacked for loss of 4 yards to the 50 yardline (CARTER, Jerard), PENALTY TSU holding (Clayborn,Ray) 10 yards to the TSU44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 20
OWN 44
+7
99.9%
Glen Cuiellette pass complete to Brad Woodard for 7 yds to the Houst 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 16TD8 plays · 59 yds · 2:22100% → 100%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+26
99.9%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Tre'von Bradley for 26 yds to the TexSo 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+9
99.9%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Julon Williams for 9 yds to the TexSo 3Similar
Q3 12:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.9%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Parker Eichenberger for 2 yds for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSODrive 17PUNT6 plays · -3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 12:38
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+2
99.9%
Glen Cuiellette pass complete to Tariq Buchanan for 2 yds to the TexSo 23Similar
Q3 12:38
3RD & 8
OWN 23
-5
99.9%
TEXAS SOUTHERN Penalty, false start (Nick Mouton) to the TexSo 18Similar
Q3 12:38
4TH & 13
OWN 18
0
99.9%
Aaron Cuevas punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Peyton Sawyer at the Houst 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 18DOWNS6 plays · 33 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 11:16
4TH & 5
OPP 31
0
99.9%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Tre'von Bradley, broken up by Andre JosephSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSODrive 19TD6 plays · 69 yds · 2:560% → 0%
Q3 9:04
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+10
99.9%
Glen Cuiellette pass complete to Terio Brown for 10 yds to the TexSo 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+13
99.9%
Glen Cuiellette pass complete to Bobby Hartzog Jr. for 13 yds to the Houst 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
99.9%
Glen Cuiellette pass incomplete to Roylain Oliver, broken up by Deontay AndersonSimilar
Q3 9:04
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+44
99.9%
Glen Cuiellette pass complete to Tariq Buchanan for 44 yds to the Houst 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 20DOWNS12 plays · 42 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
TXSODrive 21PUNT8 plays · 19 yds · 2:110% → 0%
Q3 2:11
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+9
99.9%
Jay Christophe pass complete to Bobby Hartzog Jr. for 9 yds to the TexSo 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 13
OPP 47
-5
100.0%
TEXAS SOUTHERN Penalty, false start (Drake Centers) to the TexSo 48Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 18
OWN 48
0
100.0%
Aaron Cuevas punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Peyton Sawyer at the Houst 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 22TD9 plays · 78 yds · 2:16100% → 100%
Q4 14:42
2ND & 15
OWN 17
0
99.9%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Tre'von Bradley, broken up by Dallas Blaylock Jr.Similar
Q4 14:42
3RD & 15
OWN 17
+23
99.9%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Peyton Sawyer for 23 yds to the Houst 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:42
1ST & 10
50
+15
99.9%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Henry Thomas for 15 yds to the TexSo 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:26
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
100.0%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Henry Thomas for 35 yds for a TD (Caden Novikoff KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSODrive 23PUNT5 plays · -8 yds · 0:000% → 0%
HOUDrive 24TD5 plays · 25 yds · 1:48100% → 100%
TXSODrive 25PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
HOUDrive 26DOWNS5 plays · 50 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+48
100.0%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Julon Williams for 48 yds to the TexSo 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:04
2ND & 10
OPP 12
-1
100.0%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Peyton Sawyer for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSo 13Similar
Q4 8:04
3RD & 11
OPP 13
+3
100.0%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Peyton Sawyer for 3 yds to the TexSo 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSODrive 27TD3 plays · 90 yds · 1:280% → 0%
Q4 4:50
3RD & 15
OWN 5
+95
100.0%
Jay Christophe pass complete to Bobby Hartzog Jr. for 95 yds for a TD (Aaron Cuevas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 28TD2 plays · 72 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TXSODrive 29PUNT9 plays · 26 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 4:35
2ND & 9
OWN 10
+11
100.0%
Jay Christophe pass complete to Bobby Hartzog Jr. for 11 yds to the TexSo 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
100.0%
Jay Christophe pass incomplete to Terio Brown, broken up by Isaiah ChambersSimilar
Q4 4:35
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+2
100.0%
Jay Christophe pass complete to Terio Brown for 2 yds to the TexSo 35Similar
Q4 4:35
4TH & 8
OWN 35
0
100.0%
Aaron Cuevas punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Peyton Sawyer at the Houst 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 9:11
D'Eriq King pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 10 yds for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)
+0.2
TD · Q2 14:21
Kevrin Justice run for 1 yd for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)
+0.1
TD · Q2 2:22
Chandler Smith run for 2 yds for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)
+0.1