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ECU

East Carolina 13 at South Florida 20

USF
2018 · Week 4 · Sep 22, 2018 · Raymond James Stadium
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Win probability · USF
modelUSF aheadECU aheadconfidence bandkey playUSF scoreECU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGFGTDEnd of GamePUNT-6.2USF 69.2%Trent Schneider punt for 26 yds, faircatch by Trevon Brown at the ECaro 16AWAY 13 - HOME 13 · Q4 15:00
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 15:00 · Trent Schneider punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Trevon Brown at the ECaro 16
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+40.5+20.30−20.3−40.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 138Pregame prior+12.6Home team on offense+2.1Garbage-time factor−1.3Score differential−0.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.6Blowout margin−1.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:08: Blake Barnett pass complete to Darnell Salomon for 66 yds for a TD, (Coby Weiss KICK) — USF win probability +2.3 pts (now 87%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:00: Jake Verity 28 yd FG GOOD — ECU win probability +2.4 pts (now 20%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. FG · Q3 9:58: Jake Verity 24 yd FG GOOD — ECU win probability +8.1 pts (now 29%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  4. PUNT · Q4 15:00: Trent Schneider punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Trevon Brown at the ECaro 16 — ECU win probability +6.2 pts (now 31%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:08: Jordan Cronkrite run for 80 yds for a TD (Coby Weiss KICK) — USF win probability +22.0 pts (now 90%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USF made the numbers' call on 6 of 9ECU made the numbers' call on 6 of 13
  1. Q1 11:08USF 4th & 10 at USF 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.2%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:54ECU 4th & 14 at ECU 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.0%−0.2
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:33ECU 4th & 1 at USF 41, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    13.5%−0.5
    32% to make
    Punt
    13.6%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00ECU 4th & 10 at USF 39, up 1
    Close callPunted · 15.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.7%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    15.7%−<0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    15.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:46ECU 4th & 6 at USF 35, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    13.7%−0.2
    45% to make
    Punt
    13.5%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:08USF 4th & 1 at USF 39, up 6
    Close callPunted · 86.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.1%−0.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:18ECU 4th & 4 at ECU 30, down 6
    Close callPunted · 14.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.1%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:26USF 4th & 11 at USF 27, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.9%−0.9
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.8%
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:56ECU 4th & 4 at USF 49, down 6
    Close callPunted · 15.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.9%−0.3
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:37USF 4th & 2 at USF 28, up 6
    Close callPunted · 85.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.4%−0.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 14:45ECU 4th & 1 at USF 31, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    18.1%−2.3
    54% to make
    Punt
    17.2%−3.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:58ECU 4th & 2 at USF 7, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 22.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.7%
    53% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.3%−1.4
    91% to make
    Punt
    14.1%−8.6
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:58USF 4th & 12 at USF 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.8%−3.0
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.9%
    average punt
  14. Q3 8:44ECU 4th & 2 at ECU 40, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 28.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.5%−1.2
    average punt
  15. Q3 7:25USF 4th & 17 at USF 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.5%−4.4
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.9%
    average punt
  16. Q3 3:06ECU 4th & 9 at USF 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.5%−0.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    30.9%−2.4
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    33.3%
    average punt
  17. Q4 15:00USF 4th & 19 at ECU 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.5%−3.0
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    67.3%−1.2
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    68.5%
    average punt
  18. Q4 14:55ECU 4th & 5 at USF 45, tied
    Close callPunted · 35.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.1%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    33.6%−3.5
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    36.3%−0.8
    average punt
  19. Q4 10:13ECU 4th & 4 at USF 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    14.3%−1.4
    45% to make
    Punt
    12.0%−3.7
    average punt
  20. Q4 6:50USF 4th & 9 at USF 36, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.1%−1.5
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.6%
    average punt
  21. Q4 5:06ECU 4th & 10 at USF 46, down 7
    Close callPunted · 12.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.5%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    9.3%−1.2
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    9.7%−0.8
    average punt
  22. Q4 2:14USF 4th & 1 at USF 29, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 92.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.0%−1.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USF made the numbers' call on 2 of 2ECU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 11:08ECU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:08USF Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 11:08USF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.2%−0.6
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ECUDrive 1TD
10 plays · 82 yds · 3:5210% → 11%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
90.4%
Reid Herring pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 18
0
90.4%
Anthony Scott run for no gain to the ECaro 18Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 18
+13
90.4%
Reid Herring pass complete to Terrell Green for 13 yds to the ECaro 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
90.4%
Reid Herring pass incomplete to Terrell GreenSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+13
90.4%
Reid Herring pass complete to Deondre Farrier for 13 yds to the ECaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
90.4%
Reid Herring pass complete to Anthony Scott for 3 yds to the ECaro 47Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+4
90.4%
Holton Ahlers run for 4 yds to the SFla 49Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 49
+47
90.4%
Reid Herring pass complete to Trevon Brown for 47 yds to the SFla 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
88.6%
Holton Ahlers run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jake Verity KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q1 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
88.8%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 3 yds to the SFla 23Similar
Q1 11:08
2ND & 7
OWN 23
-3
88.8%
Blake Barnett sacked by Alex Turner for a loss of 3 yards to the SFla 20Similar
Q1 11:08
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
88.7%
Blake Barnett pass incomplete to DeAngelo AntoineSimilar
Q1 11:08
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
88.7%
Trent Schneider punt for 52 yds , Trevon Brown returns for no gain to the ECaro 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q1 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
88.1%
Hussein Howe run for 4 yds to the ECaro 32Similar
Q1 9:54
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+4
88.1%
Hussein Howe run for 4 yds to the ECaro 36Similar
Q1 9:54
3RD & 2
OWN 36
+3
88.1%
Darius Pinnix run for 3 yds to the ECaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
88.0%
Reid Herring pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:54
2ND & 10
OWN 39
-4
88.1%
Reid Herring run for a loss of 4 yards to the ECaro 35Similar
Q1 9:54
3RD & 14
OWN 35
0
88.3%
Reid Herring pass incomplete to Trevon BrownSimilar
Q1 9:54
4TH & 14
OWN 35
0
88.3%
Jonn Young punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SFla 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 4TD
9 plays · 68 yds · 4:0189% → 88%
Q1 11:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
89.4%
Blake Barnett run for 2 yds for a TDSimilar
Q1 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
87.8%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 1 yd to the SFla 33Similar
Q1 7:07
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+8
87.8%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Jordan Cronkrite for 8 yds to the SFla 41Similar
Q1 7:07
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+3
88.0%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 3 yds to the SFla 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+39
88.1%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Johnny Ford for 39 yds to the ECaro 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
88.3%
Johnny Ford run for 4 yds to the ECaro 13Similar
Q1 7:07
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+6
88.3%
Johnny Ford run for 6 yds to the ECaro 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
88.3%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 2 yds to the ECaro 5Similar
Q1 7:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
88.3%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 3 yds to the ECaro 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 5PUNT
12 plays · 36 yds · 3:3313% → 15%
Q1 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
86.6%
Darius Pinnix run for 4 yds to the ECaro 29Similar
Q1 3:33
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+6
86.5%
Reid Herring pass complete to Trevon Brown for 6 yds to the ECaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
86.5%
HERRING, Reid pass incomplete to BROWN, Trevon (HAMPTON, Mike), PENALTY USF pass interference (HAMPTON, Mike) 15 yards to the 50 yardline, 1ST DOWN ECU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:33
1ST & 10
50
+5
86.0%
Darius Pinnix run for 5 yds to the SFla 45Similar
Q1 3:33
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+3
86.0%
Darius Pinnix run for 3 yds to the SFla 42Similar
Q1 3:33
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+1
86.0%
Holton Ahlers run for 1 yd to the SFla 41Similar
Q1 3:33
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+2
86.4%
Holton Ahlers run for 2 yds to the SFla 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
86.0%
Reid Herring pass incomplete to Trevon BrownSimilar
Q1 3:33
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
86.0%
Deondre Farrier run for no gain to the SFla 39Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 39
0
84.0%
Reid Herring pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 10
OPP 39
0
84.6%
Jonn Young punt for 20 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 6TD
3 plays · 81 yds · 3:4185% → 87%
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
84.8%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 5 yds to the SFla 24Similar
Q2 14:49
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+10
84.9%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Randall St. Felix for 10 yds to the SFla 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+66
87.2%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Darnell Salomon for 66 yds for a TD, (Coby Weiss KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 7DOWNS
8 plays · 30 yds · 0:0014% → 13%
Q2 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
86.5%
Anthony Scott run for 8 yds to the ECaro 48Similar
Q2 13:46
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+1
86.1%
Anthony Scott run for 1 yd to the ECaro 49Similar
Q2 13:46
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+12
86.2%
Holton Ahlers run for 12 yds to the SFla 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:46
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
86.1%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Trevon BrownSimilar
Q2 13:46
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+4
86.1%
Reid Herring pass complete to Blake Proehl for 4 yds to the SFla 35Similar
Q2 13:46
3RD & 6
OPP 35
0
86.2%
Reid Herring pass incomplete to Deondre FarrierSimilar
Q2 13:46
4TH & 6
OPP 35
+5
86.6%
Reid Herring pass complete to Terrell Green for 5 yds to the SFla 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q2 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
87.1%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Tyre McCants for 7 yds to the SFla 37Similar
Q2 11:08
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+1
87.6%
Johnny Ford run for 1 yd to the SFla 38Similar
Q2 11:08
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+1
87.4%
Johnny Ford run for 1 yd to the SFla 39Similar
Q2 11:08
4TH & 1
OWN 39
+9
87.0%
Trent Schneider punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ECaro 24 , Trevon Brown returns for 9 yds to the ECaro 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q2 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
85.6%
Hussein Howe run for 6 yds to the ECaro 30Similar
Q2 9:18
2ND & 4
OWN 30
0
85.2%
Reid Herring pass incomplete to Trevon Brown, broken up by Mike HamptonSimilar
Q2 9:18
3RD & 4
OWN 30
0
85.7%
Reid Herring pass incomplete to Trevon BrownSimilar
Q2 9:18
4TH & 4
OWN 30
0
86.2%
Jonn Young punt for 42 yds, downed at the SFla 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0087% → 86%
Q2 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
86.7%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Tyre McCants for 3 yds to the SFla 31Similar
Q2 8:26
2ND & 7
OWN 31
-4
86.7%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Jordan Cronkrite for a loss of 4 yards to the SFla 27Similar
Q2 8:26
3RD & 11
OWN 27
0
86.1%
Blake Barnett pass incomplete to Darnell Salomon, broken up by Michael WitherspoonSimilar
Q2 8:26
4TH & 11
OWN 27
+13
85.7%
Trent Schneider punt for 41 yds , Trevon Brown returns for 13 yds to the ECaro 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q2 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
84.7%
Darius Pinnix run for 6 yds to the SFla 49Similar
Q2 6:56
2ND & 4
OPP 49
0
84.2%
Darius Pinnix run for no gain to the SFla 49Similar
Q2 6:56
3RD & 4
OPP 49
0
84.4%
Reid Herring pass incomplete to Deondre FarrierSimilar
Q2 6:56
4TH & 4
OPP 49
0
85.2%
Jonn Young punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Tyre McCants at the SFla 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0087% → 86%
Q2 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
86.5%
Blake Barnett pass incomplete to Jordan Cronkrite, broken up by Kendall FutrellSimilar
Q2 5:37
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-1
86.4%
Blake Barnett sacked by Jalen Price and Alex Turner for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 19Similar
Q2 5:37
3RD & 11
OWN 19
+9
85.9%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Jordan Cronkrite for 9 yds to the SFla 28 SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 5:37
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
85.7%
Trent Schneider punt for 72 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 13FG
20 plays · 69 yds · 4:3215% → 20%
Q2 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
84.9%
Darius Pinnix run for 6 yds to the ECaro 26Similar
Q2 4:32
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+10
84.6%
Reid Herring pass complete to Anthony Watley for 10 yds to the ECaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-4
84.4%
Darius Pinnix run for a loss of 4 yards to the ECaro 32Similar
Q2 4:32
2ND & 14
OWN 32
+13
85.0%
Anthony Scott run for 13 yds to the ECaro 45Similar
Q2 4:32
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+3
83.7%
Darius Pinnix run for 3 yds to the ECaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
83.6%
Anthony Scott run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 4:32
2ND & 8
50
0
83.4%
Reid Herring pass incomplete to Trevon BrownSimilar
Q2 4:32
3RD & 8
50
+20
84.1%
Reid Herring pass complete to Blake Proehl for 20 yds to the SFla 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+12
82.8%
Reid Herring pass complete to Trevon Brown for 12 yds to the SFla 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
82.6%
Reid Herring pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 10
OPP 18
0
82.7%
Reid Herring pass incomplete to Deondre FarrierSimilar
Q2 0:48
3RD & 10
OPP 18
+3
83.6%
HERRING, Reid pass incomplete to HOWE, Hussein, PENALTY USF pass interference (SAWTELLE, Nico) 3 yards to the USF15, 1ST DOWN ECU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-2
82.6%
Trevon Brown run for a loss of 2 yards to the SFla 17Similar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 12
OPP 17
+7
82.6%
Reid Herring pass complete to Blake Proehl for 7 yds to the SFla 10Similar
Q2 0:20
3RD & 5
OPP 10
+5
83.2%
Reid Herring run for 5 yds to the SFla 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-6
82.4%
Holton Ahlers sacked by Josh Black for a loss of 6 yards to the SFla 11Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+28
80.1%
Jake Verity 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 14FUMBLE
3 plays · 15 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
81.0%
Blake Barnett pass incomplete to Tyre McCants, broken up by Corey SeargentSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+13
80.8%
Blake Barnett pass complete to DeAngelo Antoine for 13 yds DeAngelo Antoine fumbled, forced by Davondre Robinson, recovered by ECaro Michael Witherspoon , return for no gain to the SFla 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 15FG
11 plays · 33 yds · 4:4721% → 29%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
78.6%
Anthony Scott run for no gain to the SFla 40Similar
Q3 14:45
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+9
78.6%
Reid Herring pass complete to Terrell Green for 9 yds to the SFla 31Similar
Q3 14:45
3RD & 1
OPP 31
-5
78.4%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SFla 36Similar
Q3 14:45
3RD & 6
OPP 36
+5
78.9%
Reid Herring pass complete to Deondre Farrier for 5 yds to the SFla 31Similar
Q3 14:45
4TH & 1
OPP 31
+1
79.5%
Holton Ahlers run for 1 yd to the SFla 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+15
77.8%
Holton Ahlers run for 15 yds to the SFla 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-5
77.6%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, false start (D'Ante Smith) to the SFla 20Similar
Q3 14:45
1ST & 15
OPP 20
+1
77.9%
Anthony Scott run for 1 yd to the SFla 19Similar
Q3 14:45
2ND & 14
OPP 19
-1
78.3%
Darius Pinnix run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 20Similar
Q3 14:45
3RD & 15
OPP 20
+13
79.7%
Reid Herring pass complete to Blake Proehl for 13 yds to the SFla 7Similar
Q3 9:58
4TH & 2
OPP 7
+24
71.5%
Jake Verity 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0076% → 74%
Q3 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
75.5%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 3 yds to the SFla 28Similar
Q3 9:58
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
75.7%
Blake Barnett pass incomplete, broken up by Kendall FutrellSimilar
Q3 9:58
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-5
74.4%
Blake Barnett sacked by Devon Sutton for a loss of 5 yards to the SFla 23Similar
Q3 9:58
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
73.5%
Trent Schneider punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Trevon Brown at the ECaro 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0029% → 28%
Q3 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
71.5%
Reid Herring pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:44
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+8
72.0%
Anthony Scott run for 8 yds to the ECaro 40Similar
Q3 8:44
3RD & 2
OWN 40
0
70.2%
Holton Ahlers run for no gain to the ECaro 40Similar
Q3 8:44
4TH & 2
OWN 40
0
72.1%
Jonn Young punt for 20 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SFla 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 0:0076% → 72%
Q3 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
75.9%
Johnny Ford run for 1 yd to the SFla 41Similar
Q3 7:25
2ND & 9
OWN 41
0
75.4%
Blake Barnett pass incomplete to Stanley ClerveauxSimilar
Q3 7:25
3RD & 9
OWN 41
-8
74.1%
Blake Barnett sacked by Cannon Gibbs for a loss of 8 yards to the SFla 33Similar
Q3 7:25
4TH & 17
OWN 33
0
72.0%
Trent Schneider punt for 67 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 36 yds · 2:5630% → 32%
Q3 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+20
70.3%
Hussein Howe run for 20 yds to the ECaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
68.1%
Holton Ahlers run for 9 yds to the ECaro 49Similar
Q3 6:02
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+6
66.5%
Holton Ahlers run for 6 yds to the SFla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
66.7%
Hussein Howe run for no gain to the SFla 45Similar
Q3 6:02
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+1
66.7%
Anthony Scott run for 1 yd to the SFla 44Similar
Q3 3:06
3RD & 9
OPP 44
0
65.3%
Reid Herring pass incomplete to Blake ProehlSimilar
Q3 3:06
4TH & 9
OPP 44
0
68.3%
Jonn Young punt for 14 yds, downed at the SFla 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 20PUNT
9 plays · 28 yds · 2:5173% → 69%
Q3 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
72.6%
Blake Barnett run for 8 yds to the SFla 38Similar
Q3 2:51
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+14
75.0%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 14 yds to the ECaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
75.7%
Blake Barnett pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:51
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+2
75.4%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Tyre McCants for 2 yds to the ECaro 46Similar
Q3 2:51
3RD & 8
OPP 46
+13
74.6%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Darnell Salomon for 13 yds to the ECaro 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
77.2%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 1 yd to the ECaro 32Similar
Q3 2:51
2ND & 9
OPP 32
0
77.0%
Blake Barnett pass incomplete to Darnell SalomonSimilar
Q3 2:51
3RD & 9
OPP 32
-10
75.4%
Blake Barnett sacked by Nate Harvey for a loss of 10 yards to the ECaro 42Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 19
OPP 42
0
69.2%
Trent Schneider punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Trevon Brown at the ECaro 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 21PUNT
10 plays · 39 yds · 0:0034% → 35%
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
66.1%
Darius Pinnix run for 4 yds to the ECaro 20Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 6
OWN 20
+3
66.2%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Anthony Watley for 3 yds to the ECaro 23Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 3
OWN 23
+2
66.8%
Holton Ahlers run for 2 yds to the ECaro 25Similar
Q4 14:55
4TH & 1
OWN 25
+15
68.3%
YOUNG, Jonn punt 42 yards to the USF33, McCANTS, Tyre return to the USF33 (CHARLES, Daniel), PENALTY USF roughing the kicker (ANTOINE, Deange) 15 yards to the ECU40, 1ST DOWN ECU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
63.3%
Reid Herring pass incomplete to Blake Proehl, broken up by Nick RobertsSimilar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+10
64.1%
Reid Herring pass complete to Trevon Brown for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
50
+5
61.5%
Anthony Scott run for 5 yds to the SFla 45Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 5
OPP 45
0
61.6%
Anthony Scott run for no gain to the SFla 45Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 5
OPP 45
0
62.1%
Reid Herring pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:55
4TH & 5
OPP 45
0
64.7%
Jake Verity punt for 40 yds, downed at the SFla 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 22TD
3 plays · 95 yds · 0:0667% → 90%
Q4 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+13
66.9%
Blake Barnett pass complete to DeAngelo Antoine for 13 yds to the SFla 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
67.7%
Blake Barnett run for 2 yds to the SFla 20Similar
Q4 11:08
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+80
89.6%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 80 yds for a TD (Coby Weiss KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 23DOWNS
11 plays · 47 yds · 0:0013% → 15%
Q4 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
86.7%
Reid Herring pass incomplete to Terrell GreenSimilar
Q4 10:13
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+9
86.9%
Reid Herring pass complete to Deondre Farrier for 9 yds to the ECaro 27Similar
Q4 10:13
3RD & 1
OWN 27
+1
86.6%
Darius Pinnix run for 1 yd to the ECaro 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
86.3%
Reid Herring pass incomplete to Trevon BrownSimilar
Q4 10:13
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
86.8%
Reid Herring pass incomplete to Trevon Brown, broken up by Mike HamptonSimilar
Q4 10:13
3RD & 10
OWN 28
+31
87.4%
Reid Herring pass complete to Leroy Henley for 31 yds to the SFla 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
83.7%
Hussein Howe run for 3 yds to the SFla 38Similar
Q4 10:13
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+3
83.8%
Hussein Howe run for 3 yds to the SFla 35Similar
Q4 10:13
3RD & 4
OPP 35
0
83.7%
Reid Herring pass incomplete to Anthony ScottSimilar
Q4 10:13
4TH & 4
OPP 35
0
85.5%
Reid Herring pass incomplete to Terrell Green, broken up by Mazzi WilkinsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0092% → 91%
Q4 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
91.5%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 2 yds to the SFla 37Similar
Q4 6:50
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+3
91.8%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 3 yds to the SFla 40Similar
Q4 6:50
3RD & 5
OWN 40
-4
91.7%
Blake Barnett sacked by Bruce Bivens for a loss of 4 yards to the SFla 36Similar
Q4 6:50
4TH & 9
OWN 36
0
90.8%
Trent Schneider punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Trevon Brown at the ECaro 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 25PUNT
9 plays · 36 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q4 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
89.3%
Reid Herring pass complete to Deondre Farrier for 6 yds to the ECaro 24Similar
Q4 5:06
2ND & 4
OWN 24
+18
88.3%
Reid Herring pass complete to Trevon Brown for 18 yds to the ECaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
87.3%
Reid Herring pass incomplete to Hussein HoweSimilar
Q4 5:06
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+6
87.9%
Reid Herring pass complete to Trevon Brown for 6 yds to the ECaro 48Similar
Q4 5:06
3RD & 4
OWN 48
+6
86.9%
Reid Herring pass complete to Blake Proehl for 6 yds to the SFla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
85.7%
Reid Herring pass incomplete to Trevon BrownSimilar
Q4 5:06
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
86.0%
Reid Herring pass incomplete to Leroy Henley, broken up by Mike HamptonSimilar
Q4 5:06
3RD & 10
OPP 46
0
87.5%
Reid Herring pass incomplete to Blake ProehlSimilar
Q4 5:06
4TH & 10
OPP 46
0
89.1%
Jonn Young punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 26PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:5294% → 94%
Q4 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
94.3%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 2 yds to the SFla 22Similar
Q4 3:06
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+4
94.1%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 4 yds to the SFla 26Similar
Q4 2:19
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+3
94.9%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 3 yds to the SFla 29Similar
Q4 2:14
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
94.3%
Trent Schneider punt for 48 yds, downed at the ECaro 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 27INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q4 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
93.6%
Reid Herring pass intercepted Nick Roberts return for no gain to the ECaro 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 28END OF GAME
3 plays · -8 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-3
96.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the ECaro 47Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 13
OPP 47
-2
96.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 49Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 15
OPP 49
-3
95.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the SFla 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 11:08
Jordan Cronkrite run for 80 yds for a TD (Coby Weiss KICK)
+22
FG · Q3 9:58
Jake Verity 24 yd FG GOOD
-8.1
PUNT · Q4 15:00
Trent Schneider punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Trevon Brown at the ECaro 16
-6.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com