Try the model
OHIO

Ohio 30 at Cincinnati 34

CIN
2018 · Week 4 · Sep 22, 2018 · Nippert Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · CIN
modelCIN aheadOHIO aheadconfidence bandkey playCIN scoreOHIO score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 15:00 · Michael Farkas punt for 46 yds , Aulden Knight returns for 6 yds to the Cincy 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+24.0+12.00−12.0−24.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 5Pregame prior+23.6Home team on offense+0.0Score differential+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:23: Nathan Rourke pass complete to Maleek Irons for 12 yds for a TD (Louie Zervos KICK) — OHIO win probability +9.5 pts (now 42%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 11:12: Nathan Rourke run for 3 yds for a TD (Louie Zervos KICK) — OHIO win probability +16.1 pts (now 59%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:31: Desmond Ridder run for 7 yds for a TD (Cole Smith KICK) — CIN win probability +17.7 pts (now 52%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  4. TD · Q4 12:37: Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 26 yds for a TD (Cole Smith KICK) — CIN win probability +25.1 pts (now 61%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  5. TD · Q4 3:24: Michael Warren II run for 3 yds for a TD OHIO Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the Ohio 0 (Two-Point Conversion failed) — CIN win probability +25.5 pts (now 85%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CIN made the numbers' call on 5 of 5OHIO made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00OHIO 4th & 10 at OHIO 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.7%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:31CIN 4th & 7 at CIN 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.0%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:34CIN 4th & 20 at CIN 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.3%−0.6
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.9%
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00CIN 4th & 10 at CIN 20, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.5%−0.7
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:59OHIO 4th & 11 at OHIO 45, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.1%−0.9
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:23OHIO 4th & 1 at CIN 5, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.8%
    67% to convert
    Field goal
    59.9%−3.8
    92% to make
    Punt
    50.8%−13.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:30OHIO 4th & 8 at CIN 8, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.1%−1.8
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.9%
    90% to make
    Punt
    55.4%−8.4
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:36OHIO 4th & 4 at OHIO 38, up 10
    Close callPunted · 56.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.4%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:05CIN 4th & 6 at CIN 24, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.0%−0.7
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:38OHIO 4th & 16 at CIN 16, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.5%−3.3
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.8%
    81% to make
    Punt
    50.3%−9.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:38CIN 4th & 6 at CIN 49, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.8%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.9%
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:55OHIO 4th & 2 at CIN 30, up 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.8 ptsKicked a field goal · 65.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.7%−2.8
    56% to make
    Punt
    59.9%−5.6
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:32OHIO 4th & 8 at OHIO 45, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.4%−2.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CIN made the numbers' call on 5 of 5OHIO made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 8:40OHIO Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:23OHIO Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:12OHIO Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:44CIN Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 13:42CIN Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 3:31CIN Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 12:37CIN Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 3:24CIN Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    78.1%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    78.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OHIODrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
73.6%
A.J. Ouellette run for 3 yds to the Ohio 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-3
73.6%
A.J. Ouellette run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ohio 25Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
73.6%
Nathan Rourke pass incomplete to Andrew MeyerSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+6
73.6%
Michael Farkas punt for 46 yds , Aulden Knight returns for 6 yds to the Cincy 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
Q1 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
73.3%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Josiah Deguara, broken up by Conner< DylanSimilar
Q1 13:31
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+3
73.3%
Michael Warren II run for 3 yds to the Cincy 38Similar
Q1 13:31
3RD & 7
OWN 38
0
73.3%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Rashad MedarisSimilar
Q1 13:31
4TH & 7
OWN 38
0
73.3%
James Smith punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Papi White at the Ohio 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 3TD
8 plays · 84 yds · 3:5127% → 31%
Q1 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
73.1%
A.J. Ouellette run for 5 yds to the Ohio 21Similar
Q1 12:31
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+4
73.1%
A.J. Ouellette run for 4 yds to the Ohio 25Similar
Q1 12:31
3RD & 1
OWN 25
0
73.1%
A.J. Ouellette run for no gain to the Ohio 25Similar
Q1 12:31
4TH & 1
OWN 25
+16
73.2%
FARKAS, M. punt 47 yards to the CIN28, downed, PENALTY CIN roughing the kicker (FITZ, Kimoni) 16 yards to the OHIO41, 1ST DOWN OHIO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+38
72.9%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Cameron Odom for 38 yds to the Cincy 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+12
72.8%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Andrew Meyer for 2 yds to the Cincy 19 for a 1ST down CINCINNATI Penalty, personal foul (Bryan Wright) to the Cincy 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
72.8%
Julian Ross run for no gain to the Cincy 9Similar
Q1 8:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
69.5%
A.J. Ouellette run for 9 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 4PUNT
10 plays · 2 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q1 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
70.2%
Michael Warren II run for 2 yds to the Cincy 34Similar
Q1 8:34
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+7
70.2%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 7 yds to the Cincy 41Similar
Q1 8:34
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+3
70.5%
Michael Warren II run for 3 yds to the Cincy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-5
70.6%
CINCINNATI Penalty, false start (Michael Warren II) to the Cincy 39Similar
Q1 8:34
1ST & 15
OWN 39
-10
70.2%
RIDDER, Desmond pass complete to WARREN, Michael for 7 yards to the CIN46 (DORSA, J.), PENALTY CIN holding (BOYD, Dino) 10 yards to the CIN29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:34
1ST & 25
OWN 29
0
70.1%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Josiah DeguaraSimilar
Q1 8:34
2ND & 25
OWN 29
+5
70.1%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Rashad Medaris for 5 yds to the Cincy 34Similar
Q1 8:34
3RD & 20
OWN 34
0
69.9%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Thomas Geddis, broken up by Andrew PayneSimilar
Q1 8:34
4TH & 20
OWN 34
+11
69.8%
James Smith punt for 41 yds , Papi White returns for 11 yds to the Ohio 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 5TD
11 plays · 64 yds · 5:3732% → 42%
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-10
68.2%
MEYER, A. pass complete to ROURKE, N. for 33 yards to the CIN31 (WIGGINS, James), PENALTY OHIO holding (KITRELL, B.) 10 yards to the OHIO26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:00
1ST & 20
OWN 26
0
68.5%
Nathan Rourke pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 20
OWN 26
+4
68.6%
Nathan Rourke run for 4 yds to the Ohio 30Similar
Q1 6:00
3RD & 16
OWN 30
+18
68.8%
Nathan Rourke run for 18 yds to the Ohio 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
67.9%
Maleek Irons run for 8 yds to the Cincy 44Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 2
OPP 44
+1
67.7%
Maleek Irons run for 1 yd to the Cincy 43Similar
Q1 6:00
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+3
67.8%
Maleek Irons run for 3 yds to the Cincy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
67.8%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Maleek Irons for 8 yds to the Cincy 32Similar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 2
OPP 32
+19
67.7%
Nathan Rourke run for 19 yds to the Cincy 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
67.7%
Maleek Irons run for 1 yd to the Cincy 12Similar
Q1 0:23
2ND & 9
OPP 12
+12
58.1%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Maleek Irons for 12 yds for a TD (Louie Zervos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:1860% → 59%
Q1 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
59.7%
Michael Warren II run for no gain to the Cincy 20Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
59.4%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Kahlil Lewis, broken up by Javon HaganSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
59.0%
Desmond Ridder pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
59.0%
James Smith punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Papi White at the Ohio 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 7TD
7 plays · 51 yds · 3:2843% → 59%
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
57.3%
Nathan Rourke pass incomplete to Papi WhiteSimilar
Q2 14:40
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+7
57.3%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Cameron Odom for 7 yds to the Cincy 44Similar
Q2 14:40
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+10
57.5%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Papi White for 10 yds to the Cincy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+22
57.2%
Maleek Irons run for 22 yds to the Cincy 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
57.2%
Nathan Rourke run for 5 yds to the Cincy 7Similar
Q2 14:40
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+4
57.2%
Maleek Irons run for 4 yds to the Cincy 3Similar
Q2 11:12
3RD & 1
OPP 3
+3
41.0%
Nathan Rourke run for 3 yds for a TD (Louie Zervos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 8INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q2 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
43.8%
Desmond Ridder pass intercepted Jamal Hudson return for no gain to the Ohio 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 9PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0059% → 58%
Q2 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
40.6%
Nathan Rourke pass incomplete to Papi White, broken up by Coby BryantSimilar
Q2 10:59
2ND & 10
OWN 46
-1
40.6%
A.J. Ouellette run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ohio 45Similar
Q2 10:59
3RD & 11
OWN 45
0
41.2%
Nathan Rourke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:59
4TH & 11
OWN 45
0
42.1%
Michael Farkas punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 10TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 4:1042% → 50%
Q2 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
41.9%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josiah Deguara for 9 yds to the Cincy 29Similar
Q2 9:54
2ND & 1
OWN 29
0
42.6%
Desmond Ridder run for no gain to the Cincy 29Similar
Q2 9:54
3RD & 1
OWN 29
-10
42.6%
WARREN, Michael rush for no gain to the CIN29 (PAYNE, A.), PENALTY CIN holding (BOYD, Dino) 10 yards to the CIN19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:54
3RD & 11
OWN 19
+14
41.6%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Thomas Geddis for 14 yds to the Cincy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
42.3%
Desmond Ridder run for 4 yds to the Cincy 37Similar
Q2 9:54
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+8
42.8%
Michael Warren II run for 8 yds to the Cincy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
43.7%
Michael Warren II run for 1 yd to the Cincy 46Similar
Q2 9:54
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+2
43.6%
Desmond Ridder run for 2 yds to the Cincy 48Similar
Q2 9:54
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+13
43.5%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 13 yds to the Ohio 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+15
44.0%
RIDDER, Desmond pass incomplete to MEDARIS, Rashad (ROURKE, N.), PENALTY OHIO pass interference (ROURKE, N.) 15 yards to the OHIO24, 1ST DOWN CIN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
49.8%
Michael Warren II run for 24 yds for a TD (Cole Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 11FG
20 plays · 73 yds · 5:0754% → 71%
Q2 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+9
46.5%
A.J. Ouellette run for 9 yds to the Ohio 28Similar
Q2 5:37
2ND & 1
OWN 28
+21
46.0%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to A.J. Ouellette for 6 yds to the Ohio 34 for a 1ST down CINCINNATI Penalty, roughing passer (Cortez Broughton) to the Ohio 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
45.0%
A.J. Ouellette run for 8 yds to the Cincy 43Similar
Q2 5:37
2ND & 2
OPP 43
+15
44.8%
CINCINNATI Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the Cincy 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+14
44.8%
ROURKE, N. pass incomplete to WHITE, P., PENALTY CIN roughing passer (WHITE, Jarell) 14 yards to the CIN14, 1ST DOWN OHIO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:06
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
42.2%
A.J. Ouellette run for 1 yd to the Cincy 13Similar
Q2 4:06
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+1
42.2%
A.J. Ouellette run for 1 yd to the Cincy 12Similar
Q2 4:06
3RD & 8
OPP 12
-5
42.4%
OHIO Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 17Similar
Q2 4:06
3RD & 13
OPP 17
+12
42.8%
Nathan Rourke run for 12 yds to the Cincy 5Similar
Q2 1:23
4TH & 1
OPP 5
+2
38.8%
A.J. Ouellette run for 2 yds to the Cincy 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
36.7%
OHIO Penalty, false start (Brett Kitrell) to the Cincy 8Similar
Q2 1:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-10
36.9%
A.J. Ouellette run for 5 yds to the Cincy 3 OHIO Penalty, personal foul (Durrell Wood) to the Cincy 18Similar
Q2 1:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 18
+10
37.2%
A.J. Ouellette run for 10 yds to the Cincy 8Similar
Q2 0:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
35.2%
Nathan Rourke pass incomplete to A.J. Ouellette, broken up by Kimoni Fitz OHIO Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 0:30
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
29.1%
Louie Zervos 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 12MISSED FG
7 plays · 36 yds · 0:2544% → 49%
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+14
44.3%
Michael Warren II run for 14 yds to the Cincy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
46.1%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:25
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+22
45.8%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Rashad Medaris for 22 yds to the Ohio 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
48.1%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+49
49.0%
Cole Smith 49 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Will Evans TEAM return for no gain to the Ohio 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 13TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:1835% → 43%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
34.9%
Michael Warren II run for 3 yds to the Cincy 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-5
35.0%
Desmond Ridder run for a loss of 5 yards to the Cincy 23Similar
Q3 13:42
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+77
43.3%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Rashad Medaris for 77 yds for a TD (Cole Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0055% → 54%
Q3 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
45.3%
A.J. Ouellette run for 1 yd to the Ohio 33Similar
Q3 13:36
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+5
45.5%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Cameron Odom for 5 yds to the Ohio 38Similar
Q3 13:36
3RD & 4
OWN 38
0
44.7%
Nathan Rourke pass incomplete to Papi WhiteSimilar
Q3 13:36
4TH & 4
OWN 38
0
46.0%
Michael Farkas punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Aulden Knight at the Cincy 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0043% → 41%
Q3 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
42.7%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 19Similar
Q3 12:05
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+5
42.4%
Michael Warren II run for 5 yds to the Cincy 24Similar
Q3 12:05
3RD & 6
OWN 24
0
41.6%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Thomas GeddisSimilar
Q3 12:05
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
40.8%
James Smith punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Papi White at the Ohio 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 16FG
8 plays · 44 yds · 2:0259% → 68%
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+41
40.6%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Cameron Odom for 41 yds to the Cincy 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
39.9%
Maleek Irons run for 2 yds to the Cincy 17Similar
Q3 10:40
2ND & 8
OPP 17
0
39.9%
Nathan Rourke pass incomplete to Papi White, broken up by Malik ClementsSimilar
Q3 10:40
3RD & 8
OPP 17
+9
41.0%
ROURKE, N. pass incomplete to WHITE, P., PENALTY CIN holding (JEFFERIES, Cam) 9 yards to the CIN8, 1ST DOWN OHIO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
39.9%
Nathan Rourke pass incomplete to Papi White, broken up by Tyrell GilbertSimilar
Q3 10:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
39.9%
Nathan Rourke pass incomplete to Papi WhiteSimilar
Q3 10:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
-8
40.7%
Nathan Rourke sacked by Cortez Broughton for a loss of 8 yards to the Cincy 16Similar
Q3 8:38
4TH & GOAL
OPP 16
+33
32.2%
Louie Zervos 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 17PUNT
10 plays · 24 yds · 0:0036% → 36%
Q3 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
35.9%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Thomas Geddis for 10 yds to the Cincy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
36.2%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Rashad MedarisSimilar
Q3 8:38
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
36.0%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Kahlil Lewis, broken up by Jamal HudsonSimilar
Q3 8:38
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+10
34.9%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 10 yds to the Cincy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
37.2%
Michael Warren II run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 8:38
2ND & 5
50
+3
37.9%
Michael Warren II run for 3 yds to the Ohio 47Similar
Q3 8:38
3RD & 2
OPP 47
+1
38.0%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Wilson Huber for 1 yd to the Ohio 46Similar
Q3 8:38
4TH & 1
OPP 46
-5
37.0%
WARREN, Michael rush for 2 yards to the OHIO44 (NELSON, K.;CONNER, D.), PENALTY CIN false start (HUBER, Wilson) 5 yards to the CIN49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:38
4TH & 6
OWN 49
0
35.9%
James Smith punt for 49 yds, downed at the Ohio 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 18FUMBLE
2 plays · 26 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q3 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+13
25.9%
Maleek Irons run for 13 yds to the Ohio 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+13
25.6%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Papi White for 13 yds Papi White fumbled, recovered by Cincy Darrick ForrestSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 19TD
4 plays · 28 yds · 1:2535% → 52%
Q3 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+10
34.7%
Michael Warren II run for 10 yds to the Ohio 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
34.7%
Michael Warren II run for 2 yds to the Ohio 16Similar
Q3 4:56
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+9
34.7%
Desmond Ridder run for 9 yds to the Ohio 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
52.4%
Desmond Ridder run for 7 yds for a TD (Cole Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 20FG
10 plays · 28 yds · 3:3061% → 70%
Q3 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
38.6%
Nathan Rourke pass incomplete to Papi WhiteSimilar
Q3 3:25
2ND & 10
OWN 42
-9
39.4%
A.J. Ouellette run for 1 yd to the Ohio 43 OHIO Penalty, Offensive holding (Joe Lowery) to the Ohio 33Similar
Q3 3:25
2ND & 19
OWN 33
+6
42.4%
Nathan Rourke run for 6 yds to the Ohio 39Similar
Q3 3:25
3RD & 13
OPP 0
0
38.5%
ROURKE, N. pass incomplete to ODOM, C., PENALTY OHIO holding off-setting, PENALTY CIN offside off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:25
3RD & 13
OWN 39
+23
41.8%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Cameron Odom for 23 yds to the Cincy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
37.9%
Nathan Rourke pass incomplete to Andrew Meyer, broken up by Cameron JefferiesSimilar
Q3 3:25
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+7
38.0%
A.J. Ouellette run for 7 yds to the Cincy 31Similar
Q3 3:25
3RD & 3
OPP 31
+1
38.1%
Julian Ross run for 1 yd to the Cincy 30Similar
Q4 14:55
4TH & 2
OPP 30
+47
29.7%
Louie Zervos 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 21TD
7 plays · 71 yds · 2:1132% → 61%
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+15
31.5%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josiah Deguara for 15 yds to the Cincy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
33.3%
Michael Warren II run for 4 yds to the Cincy 48Similar
Q4 14:48
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+1
34.4%
Desmond Ridder run for 1 yd to the Cincy 49Similar
Q4 14:48
3RD & 5
OWN 49
+15
33.3%
RIDDER, Desmond pass incomplete to WARREN, Michael, PENALTY OHIO illegal use of hands (ARP, B.) 15 yards to the OHIO36, 1ST DOWN CIN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+10
35.4%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josiah Deguara for 10 yds to the Ohio 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
60.5%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 26 yds for a TD (Cole Smith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 22PUNT
10 plays · 25 yds · 0:0053% → 51%
Q4 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
46.9%
Maleek Irons run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ohio 19Similar
Q4 12:32
2ND & 11
OWN 19
0
47.7%
Nathan Rourke pass incomplete to Andrew Meyer, broken up by Coby BryantSimilar
Q4 12:32
3RD & 11
OWN 19
+13
49.3%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Andrew Meyer for 13 yds to the Ohio 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
45.7%
Maleek Irons run for 7 yds to the Ohio 39Similar
Q4 12:32
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+4
43.7%
Maleek Irons run for 4 yds to the Ohio 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
43.7%
Julian Ross run for 2 yds to the Ohio 45Similar
Q4 12:32
2ND & 8
OWN 45
0
43.6%
Maleek Irons run for no gain to the Ohio 45Similar
Q4 12:32
3RD & 8
OWN 45
0
45.2%
Nathan Rourke pass incomplete to Papi White, broken up by Cameron JefferiesSimilar
Q4 12:32
4TH & 8
OWN 45
0
48.6%
Michael Farkas punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Aulden Knight at the Cincy 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 23TD
13 plays · 92 yds · 5:0250% → 85%
Q4 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
50.4%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josiah Deguara for 3 yds to the Cincy 11Similar
Q4 8:26
2ND & 7
OWN 11
+21
50.7%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josiah Deguara for 21 yds to the Cincy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
52.1%
Desmond Ridder run for 9 yds to the Cincy 41Similar
Q4 8:26
2ND & 1
OWN 41
+1
56.7%
Michael Warren II run for 1 yd to the Cincy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
56.0%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 7 yds to the Cincy 49Similar
Q4 8:26
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+4
57.1%
Michael Warren II run for 4 yds to the Ohio 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
57.6%
Michael Warren II run for 7 yds to the Ohio 40Similar
Q4 8:26
2ND & 3
OPP 40
+13
57.9%
Michael Warren II run for 13 yds to the Ohio 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
59.7%
Michael Warren II run for no gain to the Ohio 27Similar
Q4 8:26
2ND & 10
OPP 27
-1
59.6%
Desmond Ridder run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ohio 28Similar
Q4 8:26
3RD & 11
OPP 28
+14
56.0%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Kahlil Lewis for 14 yds to the Ohio 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+11
59.7%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josiah Deguara for 11 yds to the Ohio 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:24
1ST & 3
OWN 0
+3
85.2%
Michael Warren II run for 3 yds for a TD OHIO Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the Ohio 0 (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 24INT
11 plays · 71 yds · 1:4825% → 34%
Q4 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+37
75.0%
Nathan Rourke run for 37 yds to the Cincy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+10
68.8%
ROURKE, N. pass incomplete to OUELLETTE, A. (CLEMENTS, Malik), PENALTY CIN holding (JEFFERIES, Cam) 10 yards to the CIN28, 1ST DOWN OHIO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+15
66.1%
ROURKE, N. pass incomplete to WHITE, P. (JEFFERIES, Cam), PENALTY CIN pass interference (JEFFERIES, Cam) 15 yards to the CIN13, 1ST DOWN OHIO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+8
66.1%
A.J. Ouellette run for 8 yds to the Cincy 5Similar
Q4 3:18
2ND & 2
OPP 5
+3
66.1%
A.J. Ouellette run for 3 yds to the Cincy 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
63.1%
A.J. Ouellette run for 1 yd to the Cincy 1Similar
Q4 1:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-3
64.3%
A.J. Ouellette run for a loss of 3 yards to the Cincy 4Similar
Q4 1:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
66.1%
Nathan Rourke pass intercepted James Wiggins return for 1 yd to the Cincy 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 25END OF GAME
8 plays · 8 yds · 0:1593% → 95%
Q4 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 2
-1
93.0%
CINCINNATI Penalty, sideline interference (-1 Yards) to the Cincy 1Similar
Q4 0:52
1ST & 11
OWN 1
+2
93.0%
Desmond Ridder run for 2 yds to the Cincy 3Similar
Q4 0:47
2ND & 9
OWN 3
+5
93.6%
Michael Warren II run for 5 yds to the Cincy 8Similar
Q4 0:42
3RD & 4
OWN 8
+4
94.0%
Michael Warren II run for 4 yds to the Cincy 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-2
94.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:24
Michael Warren II run for 3 yds for a TD OHIO Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the Ohio 0 (Two-Point Conversion failed)
+25.5
TD · Q4 12:37
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for 26 yds for a TD (Cole Smith KICK)
+25.1
TD · Q3 3:31
Desmond Ridder run for 7 yds for a TD (Cole Smith KICK)
+17.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com