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FAU

Florida Atlantic 36 at UCF 56

UCF
2018 · Week 4 · Sep 21, 2018 · FBC Mortgage Stadium
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Win probability · UCF
modelUCF aheadFAU aheadconfidence bandkey playUCF scoreFAU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 4:45 · Mac Loudermilk punt for 52 yds , Willie Wright returns for no gain to the FlAtl 29
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 35Pregame prior+30.8Home team on offense+4.1Score differential+2.0Garbage-time factor+1.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.6Blowout margin−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:31: McKenzie Milton pass complete to Marlon Williams for 21 yds for a TD (Matthew Wright KICK) — UCF win probability +9.1 pts (now 81%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 11:19: McKenzie Milton run for 9 yds for a TD (Matthew Wright KICK) — UCF win probability +7.9 pts (now 88%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:17: McKenzie Milton run for 13 yds for a TD (Matthew Wright KICK) — UCF win probability +7.1 pts (now 96%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:29: Chris Robison pass complete to Kerrith Whyte Jr. for 23 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — FAU win probability +6.5 pts (now 13%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:58: Devin Singletary run for 5 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — FAU win probability +5.4 pts (now 9%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UCF made the numbers' call on 3 of 4FAU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 10:56FAU 4th & 5 at FAU 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.5%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:21FAU 4th & 4 at FAU 42, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.1%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:45UCF 4th & 3 at UCF 19, up 14
    Close callPunted · 84.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.8%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.6%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:00FAU 4th & 4 at FAU 35, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 15.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.5%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    15.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:41UCF 4th & 8 at UCF 20, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.4%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:00FAU 4th & 7 at UCF 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.2%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    18.9%−0.3
    40% to make
    Punt
    18.8%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:34UCF 4th & 3 at FAU 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.2%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    75.5%−0.7
    51% to make
    Punt
    74.8%−1.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:34FAU 4th & 5 at UCF 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.6%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.8%
    84% to make
    Punt
    25.9%−5.0
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:05FAU 4th & 10 at FAU 25, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.9%−1.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.0%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:22FAU 4th & 7 at FAU 28, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.6%−0.6
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:30FAU 4th & 2 at FAU 44, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.0%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:36UCF 4th & 12 at UCF 44, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.4%−0.7
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCF made the numbers' call on 8 of 8FAU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 12:13UCF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:07UCF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:19FAU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:24FAU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:31UCF Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 11:19UCF Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 7:17UCF Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 5:29FAU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    12.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    11.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 3:53UCF Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 8:58FAU Touchdown, down 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    6.1%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    6.1%
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 3:04UCF Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%−0.5
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 2:03UCF Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 1:05FAU Touchdown, down 21 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.5%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FAUDrive 1INT
5 plays · 14 yds · 1:2214% → 15%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-1
85.8%
Chris Robison pass complete to Willie Wright for a loss of 1 yard to the FlAtl 31Similar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 11
OWN 31
+6
85.7%
Willie Wright run for 6 yds to the FlAtl 37Similar
Q1 14:00
3RD & 5
OWN 37
+9
85.6%
Jovon Durante run for 9 yds to the FlAtl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+18
85.3%
Chris Robison pass intercepted Pat Jasinski return for 18 yds to the FlAtl 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 2TD
4 plays · 40 yds · 1:1286% → 86%
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
85.5%
McKenzie Milton run for 6 yds to the FlAtl 34Similar
Q1 13:05
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+16
85.5%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 16 yds to the FlAtl 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
85.4%
McKenzie Milton run for 6 yds to the FlAtl 12Similar
Q1 12:13
2ND & 4
OPP 12
+12
85.8%
McKenzie Milton run for 12 yds for a TD (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:0415% → 15%
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
85.5%
Devin Singletary run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 33Similar
Q1 11:40
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+1
85.4%
Devin Singletary run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 34Similar
Q1 11:06
3RD & 5
OWN 34
0
85.4%
Chris Robison pass incomplete to Devin SingletarySimilar
Q1 10:56
4TH & 5
OWN 34
0
85.5%
Chris Robison punt for 58 yds, downed at the UCF 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 4TD
11 plays · 92 yds · 2:3885% → 87%
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+1
85.4%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 1 yd to the UCF 9Similar
Q1 10:25
2ND & 9
OWN 9
+1
85.4%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 1 yd to the UCF 10Similar
Q1 10:05
3RD & 8
OWN 10
+10
85.3%
Milton, McKenzie pass incomplete to Colubiale, Michael, PENALTY FLAATLANTC pass interference (Young, Jalen) 10 yards to the UCF20, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UCF.Similar
Q1 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
85.4%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Tre NixonSimilar
Q1 9:47
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
85.4%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Dredrick SnelsonSimilar
Q1 9:35
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+18
85.3%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Michael Colubiale for 18 yds to the UCF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+39
85.5%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 39 yds to the FlAtl 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
85.7%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 5 yds to the FlAtl 18Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+6
85.6%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 6 yds to the FlAtl 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
85.6%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for no gain to the FlAtl 12Similar
Q1 8:07
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+12
87.1%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Dredrick Snelson for 12 yds for a TD (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:3214% → 13%
Q1 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
86.4%
Chris Robison run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 37Similar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+3
86.5%
Chris Robison pass complete to Willie Wright for 3 yds to the FlAtl 40Similar
Q1 6:48
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+2
86.5%
Chris Robison pass complete to Tavaris Harrison for 2 yds to the FlAtl 42Similar
Q1 6:21
4TH & 4
OWN 42
0
86.6%
Chris Robison punt for 46 yds, downed at the UCF 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:2587% → 87%
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+8
87.1%
Otis Anderson run for 8 yds to the UCF 20Similar
Q1 5:54
2ND & 2
OWN 20
-10
87.1%
Milton, McKenzie pass complete to Snelson, Dredrick for 13 yards to the UCF33, PENALTY UCF pass interference (Davis, Gabriel) 10 yards to the UCF10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 12
OWN 10
+9
87.1%
McKenzie Milton run for 9 yds to the UCF 19Similar
Q1 4:53
3RD & 3
OWN 19
0
87.1%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Otis AndersonSimilar
Q1 4:45
4TH & 3
OWN 19
0
86.9%
Mac Loudermilk punt for 52 yds , Willie Wright returns for no gain to the FlAtl 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 7TD
11 plays · 71 yds · 4:2113% → 17%
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
86.7%
Devin Singletary run for no gain to the FlAtl 29Similar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 10
OWN 29
0
86.6%
Devin Singletary run for no gain to the FlAtl 29Similar
Q1 4:00
3RD & 10
OWN 29
+6
86.8%
Devin Singletary run for 6 yds to the FlAtl 35Similar
Q1 3:00
4TH & 4
OWN 35
+24
87.0%
Gerald Hearns run for 24 yds to the UCF 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
86.6%
Jovon Durante run for 3 yds to the UCF 38Similar
Q1 2:08
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+5
86.3%
Kerrith Whyte Jr. run for 5 yds to the UCF 33Similar
Q1 2:00
3RD & 2
OPP 33
+3
86.2%
Chris Robison run for 3 yds to the UCF 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+17
85.9%
Chris Robison run for 3 yds to the UCF 27 for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, Face Mask (14 yards) (Joey Connors) to the UCF 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
85.9%
Chris Robison pass incomplete to John RaineSimilar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+2
85.9%
Devin Singletary run for 2 yds to the UCF 11Similar
Q1 0:19
3RD & 8
OPP 11
+11
83.1%
Devin Singletary run for 11 yds for a TD (Vladimir Rivas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:2484% → 83%
Q1 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
84.2%
McKenzie Milton run for 4 yds to the UCF 22Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+3
84.2%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 3 yds to the UCF 25Similar
Q2 14:30
3RD & 3
OWN 25
-5
83.8%
McKenzie Milton sacked by Rashad Smith for a loss of 5 yards to the UCF 20Similar
Q2 13:41
4TH & 8
OWN 20
0
83.2%
Mac Loudermilk punt for 39 yds , Dante Cousart returns for no gain to the FlAtl 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 9TD
8 plays · 59 yds · 3:0917% → 24%
Q2 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+19
83.2%
Devin Singletary run for 19 yds to the UCF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:06
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-1
82.6%
Chris Robison pass complete to Jovon Durante for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 41Similar
Q2 12:36
2ND & 11
OPP 41
0
82.8%
Chris Robison pass incomplete to Jovon Durante, broken up by Nevelle ClarkeSimilar
Q2 12:20
3RD & 11
OPP 41
+4
83.1%
Kerrith Whyte Jr. run for 4 yds to the UCF 37Similar
Q2 12:00
4TH & 7
OPP 37
+11
83.3%
Chris Robison pass complete to Willie Wright for 11 yds to the UCF 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
81.7%
Chris Robison run for 1 yd to the UCF 25Similar
Q2 10:55
2ND & 9
OPP 25
+16
81.6%
Chris Robison run for 16 yds to the UCF 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
76.4%
Devin Singletary run for 9 yds for a TD (Vladimir Rivas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 10DOWNS
11 plays · 46 yds · 2:3179% → 79%
Q2 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
79.2%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 4 yds to the UCF 26Similar
Q2 9:54
2ND & 5
OWN 26
0
79.4%
McKenzie Milton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:45
3RD & 5
OWN 26
+20
78.7%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Michael Colubiale for 20 yds to the UCF 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
80.3%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre Nixon for 9 yds to the FlAtl 45Similar
Q2 9:15
2ND & 1
OPP 45
0
80.5%
Michael Colubiale run for no gain to the FlAtl 45Similar
Q2 9:05
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+6
80.2%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Dredrick Snelson for 6 yds to the FlAtl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:52
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
80.4%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Tre NixonSimilar
Q2 8:45
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+2
80.3%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 37Similar
Q2 8:10
3RD & 8
OPP 37
+5
79.7%
McKenzie Milton run for 5 yds to the FlAtl 32Similar
Q2 7:34
4TH & 3
OPP 32
0
78.6%
McKenzie Milton pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 11FG
14 plays · 54 yds · 5:5124% → 33%
Q2 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
75.6%
Devin Singletary run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 36Similar
Q2 7:10
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+2
75.1%
Devin Singletary run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 38Similar
Q2 6:30
3RD & 4
OWN 38
+4
74.7%
Chris Robison run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-3
73.9%
Chris Robison run for a loss of 3 yards to the FlAtl 39Similar
Q2 5:18
2ND & 13
OWN 39
0
74.6%
Chris Robison pass incomplete to Jovon DuranteSimilar
Q2 5:07
3RD & 13
OWN 45
+21
74.8%
Chris Robison pass complete to Jovon Durante for 6 yds to the UCF 45 for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, Roughing Passer (Eric Mitchell) to the UCF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+10
72.3%
Devin Singletary run for 10 yds to the UCF 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+11
71.4%
Devin Singletary run for 11 yds to the UCF 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-6
70.9%
Devin Singletary run for a loss of 6 yards to the UCF 25Similar
Q2 2:30
2ND & 16
OPP 25
+9
71.2%
Kerrith Whyte Jr. run for 9 yds to the UCF 16Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 7
OPP 16
+6
69.9%
Chris Robison pass complete to Harrison Bryant for 6 yds to the UCF 10Similar
Q2 1:39
4TH & 1
OPP 10
-4
70.9%
FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, False Start (-4 Yards) to the UCF 14Similar
Q2 1:34
4TH & 5
OPP 14
+32
66.7%
Vladimir Rivas 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 12TD
6 plays · 78 yds · 0:4969% → 81%
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
68.9%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Marlon Williams for 9 yds to the UCF 31Similar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 1
OWN 31
+23
70.7%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Dredrick Snelson for 23 yds to the FlAtl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
72.1%
Otis Anderson run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 42Similar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+21
71.8%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Dredrick Snelson for 21 yds to the FlAtl 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
80.9%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Marlon Williams for 21 yds for a TD (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:2522% → 21%
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
77.7%
Devin Singletary pass complete to Willie Wright for 3 yds to the FlAtl 28Similar
Q2 0:20
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
77.3%
Chris Robison pass incomplete to Jovon DuranteSimilar
Q2 0:18
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-3
78.2%
Devin Singletary run for a loss of 3 yards to the FlAtl 25Similar
Q2 0:05
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
79.1%
Sebastian Riella punt for 35 yds, downed at the UCF 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · 11 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
80.3%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 11 yds to the FlAtl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 15TD
11 plays · 68 yds · 3:4179% → 88%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-7
78.8%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 3 yds to the UCF 35 UCF Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the UCF 25Similar
Q3 14:30
1ST & 17
OWN 25
+3
78.3%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 3 yds to the UCF 28Similar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 14
OWN 28
+16
78.0%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre Nixon for 16 yds to the UCF 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+18
79.8%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Michael Colubiale for 18 yds to the FlAtl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
80.2%
McKenzie Milton run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 37Similar
Q3 12:40
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+4
79.8%
Greg McCrae run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 33Similar
Q3 12:30
3RD & 5
OPP 33
+6
79.5%
Greg McCrae run for 6 yds to the FlAtl 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
80.2%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Michael Colubiale for 9 yds to the FlAtl 18 for a 1ST down FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, Personal Foul (9 Yards) to the FlAtl 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
80.1%
Greg McCrae run for no gain to the FlAtl 9Similar
Q3 11:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
88.0%
McKenzie Milton run for 9 yds for a TD (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:4314% → 13%
Q3 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
86.5%
Devin Singletary run for 9 yds to the FlAtl 34Similar
Q3 10:50
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-1
85.7%
Devin Singletary run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlAtl 33Similar
Q3 10:35
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
86.4%
Chris Robison pass incomplete to Harrison Bryant, broken up by Shawn Burgess-BeckerSimilar
Q3 10:30
4TH & 2
OWN 33
-5
86.9%
FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, False Start (Junior Diaz) to the FlAtl 28Similar
Q3 10:22
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+22
87.5%
Sebastian Riella punt for 37 yds, downed at the UCF 35 FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (-15 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 17TD
10 plays · 50 yds · 2:5488% → 96%
Q3 10:11
1ST & 10
50
+6
88.2%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Otis Anderson for 6 yds to the FlAtl 44Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+8
88.3%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 8 yds to the FlAtl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:24
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+8
88.5%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 8 yds to the FlAtl 28Similar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 2
OPP 28
0
88.5%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for no gain to the FlAtl 28Similar
Q3 8:30
3RD & 2
OPP 28
+3
88.1%
Taj McGowan run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
88.6%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Michael ColubialeSimilar
Q3 7:55
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+9
88.6%
Taj McGowan run for 9 yds to the FlAtl 16Similar
Q3 7:35
3RD & 1
OPP 16
+3
88.2%
Taj McGowan run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:24
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
88.5%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Tre Nixon, broken up by Shelton LewisSimilar
Q3 7:17
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+13
95.6%
McKenzie Milton run for 13 yds for a TD (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 18TD
7 plays · 63 yds · 1:316% → 13%
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+21
93.9%
Chris Robison pass complete to Jovon Durante for 21 yds to the UCF 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
93.7%
Devin Singletary run for 4 yds to the UCF 38Similar
Q3 6:10
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+2
93.5%
Chris Robison run for 2 yds to the UCF 36Similar
Q3 5:45
3RD & 4
OPP 36
+13
94.0%
Devin Singletary run for 13 yds to the UCF 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:37
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
93.4%
Chris Robison pass incomplete to Jovon Durante, broken up by Brandon MooreSimilar
Q3 5:29
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+23
86.9%
Chris Robison pass complete to Kerrith Whyte Jr. for 23 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 19TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:3290% → 97%
Q3 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
90.2%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Michael Colubiale for 8 yds to the UCF 33Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+14
90.7%
McKenzie Milton run for 14 yds to the UCF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+14
91.1%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 14 yds to the FlAtl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+15
91.1%
FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the FlAtl 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
91.5%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 5 yds to the FlAtl 19Similar
Q3 3:53
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+19
96.9%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 19 yds for a TD (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 20INT
8 plays · 39 yds · 2:385% → 5%
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
94.8%
Devin Singletary run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 40Similar
Q3 3:15
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+5
94.9%
Chris Robison run for 5 yds to the FlAtl 45Similar
Q3 3:00
3RD & 1
OWN 45
-1
95.0%
Devin Singletary run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlAtl 44Similar
Q3 2:30
4TH & 2
OWN 44
+2
95.1%
Chris Robison run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
95.1%
Kerrith Whyte Jr. run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 48Similar
Q3 1:30
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+27
95.3%
Chris Robison pass complete to Willie Wright for 27 yds to the UCF 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
94.9%
Chris Robison pass intercepted Eric Mitchell return for 9 yds to the UCF 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 2:1497% → 98%
Q3 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
97.1%
Greg McCrae run for 4 yds to the UCF 25Similar
Q3 0:15
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+8
97.5%
Greg McCrae run for 8 yds to the UCF 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
97.6%
Greg McCrae run for 7 yds to the UCF 40Similar
Q4 14:40
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+6
97.8%
Greg McCrae run for 6 yds to the UCF 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-2
97.9%
McKenzie Milton run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 44Similar
Q4 13:50
2ND & 12
OWN 44
0
98.0%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Tre NixonSimilar
Q4 13:46
3RD & 12
OWN 44
0
98.0%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Otis AndersonSimilar
Q4 13:36
4TH & 12
OWN 44
0
97.8%
Mac Loudermilk punt for 56 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 22TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 4:313% → 9%
Q4 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
96.7%
Chris Robison pass incomplete to Jovon DuranteSimilar
Q4 13:22
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+15
96.7%
Devin Singletary run for 15 yds to the FlAtl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
96.5%
Chris Robison pass incomplete to Harrison BryantSimilar
Q4 12:45
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+3
96.7%
Chris Robison pass complete to Devin Singletary for 3 yds to the FlAtl 38Similar
Q4 12:15
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+15
96.8%
Chris Robison pass complete to Willie Wright for 15 yds to the UCF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
96.7%
Devin Singletary run for 5 yds to the UCF 42Similar
Q4 11:00
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+5
96.6%
Kerrith Whyte Jr. run for 5 yds to the UCF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+7
96.8%
Kerrith Whyte Jr. run for 7 yds to the UCF 30Similar
Q4 10:15
2ND & 3
OPP 30
+8
96.4%
Kerrith Whyte Jr. run for 8 yds to the UCF 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+9
96.4%
Chris Robison pass complete to Jovon Durante for 9 yds to the UCF 13Similar
Q4 9:20
2ND & 1
OPP 13
+8
96.4%
Devin Singletary run for 8 yds to the UCF 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
91.0%
Devin Singletary run for 5 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 23TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 5:3795% → 99%
Q4 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
95.1%
Otis Anderson run for 3 yds to the UCF 28Similar
Q4 8:30
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+15
95.5%
Milton, McKenzie pass incomplete to Williams, Marlon, PENALTY FLAATLANTC pass interference (Pierre, James) 15 yards to the UCF43, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UCF.Similar
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
95.9%
Otis Anderson run for no gain to the UCF 43Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+11
95.8%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Michael Colubiale for 11 yds to the FlAtl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
96.0%
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Tre Nixon for 8 yds to the FlAtl 38Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 2
OPP 38
+6
96.2%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 6 yds to the FlAtl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
96.5%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 29Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 7
OPP 29
0
96.5%
McKenzie Milton pass incomplete to Otis AndersonSimilar
Q4 5:46
3RD & 7
OPP 29
+9
96.4%
McKenzie Milton run for 9 yds to the FlAtl 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
96.7%
Taj McGowan run for 7 yds to the FlAtl 13Similar
Q4 4:25
2ND & 3
OPP 13
+3
97.0%
Taj McGowan run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
97.0%
Taj McGowan run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 6Similar
Q4 3:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
99.4%
Taj McGowan run for 6 yds for a TD (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 24INT TD
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:511% → 0%
Q4 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
99.4%
Chris Robison pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:31
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+4
99.4%
Kerrith Whyte Jr. run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 40Similar
Q4 2:03
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+40
100.0%
Chris Robison pass intercepted for a TD Shawn Burgess-Becker return for 40 yds for a TD (Matthew Wright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 25TD
4 plays · 69 yds · 0:550% → 1%
Q4 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+14
100.0%
Gerald Hearns run for 14 yds to the FlAtl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
100.0%
Gerald Hearns run for 15 yds to the UCF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
99.4%
Kerrith Whyte Jr. run for 40 yds for a TD (Vladimir Rivas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 26END OF GAME
3 plays · 7 yds · 0:30100% → 100%
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.5%
Bentavious Thompson run for 4 yds to the UCF 29Similar
Q4 0:25
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
99.6%
Bentavious Thompson run for 3 yds to the UCF 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:31
McKenzie Milton pass complete to Marlon Williams for 21 yds for a TD (Matthew Wright KICK)
+9.1
TD · Q3 11:19
McKenzie Milton run for 9 yds for a TD (Matthew Wright KICK)
+7.9
TD · Q3 7:17
McKenzie Milton run for 13 yds for a TD (Matthew Wright KICK)
+7.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com