2018 · Week 3 · Sep 15, 2018 · Pratt & Whitney Stadium
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Win probability · CONN
modelCONN aheadURI aheadconfidence bandkey playCONN scoreURI score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 15:00 · Anthony Garro punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Kyle Buss at the UConn 19
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q3 8:33: JaJuan Lawson run for 16 yds for a TD (C.J. Carrick KICK) — URI win probability +11.6 pts (now 28%) (top driver: URI has the ball).
- TD · Q3 6:04: JaJuan Lawson pass complete to Tyler Burke for 5 yds for a TD (C.J. Carrick KICK) — URI win probability +16.8 pts (now 45%) (top driver: URI has the ball).
- TD · Q3 0:55: David Pindell run for 6 yds for a TD (Michael Tarbutt KICK) — CONN win probability +17.1 pts (now 86%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
- TD · Q4 3:13: Naim Jones run for 14 yds for a TD (C.J. Carrick KICK) — URI win probability +37.3 pts (now 57%) (top driver: URI has the ball).
- TD · Q4 0:57: Kevin Mensah run for 22 yds for a TD (Michael Tarbutt KICK) — CONN win probability +28.6 pts (now 97%) (top driver: CONN has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
CONN made the numbers' call on 6 of 6URI made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
- Q1 9:10CONN 4th & 2 at URI 28, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call51.5%57% to convertField goal51.3%−0.260% to makePunt50.6%−0.9average punt
- Q1 0:52CONN 4th & 2 at URI 28, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 57.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call57.7%57% to convertField goal57.1%−0.660% to makePunt54.7%−3.0average punt
- Q2 13:49CONN 4th & 1 at URI 11, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call58.7%71% to convertField goal57.7%−1.187% to makePunt54.1%−4.6average punt
- Q3 14:18URI 4th & 5 at URI 24, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.5% before the snapGo for it21.3%−0.740% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call22.0%average punt
- Q3 12:18CONN 4th & 8 at CONN 41, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.3% before the snapGo for it79.0%−1.434% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call80.3%average punt
- Q3 6:04CONN 4th & 2 at URI 45, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 57.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call58.0%57% to convertField goal53.4%−4.625% to makePunt55.6%−2.3average punt
- Q4 15:00URI 4th & 2 at URI 43, down 7Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 25.0% before the snapGo for it26.1%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call24.7%−1.4average punt
- Q4 10:15URI 4th & 7 at URI 22, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.7% before the snapGo for it15.9%−1.235% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.1%average punt
- Q4 8:39CONN 4th & 9 at CONN 40, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.8% before the snapGo for it83.0%−1.932% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call84.9%average punt
- Q4 0:26URI 4th & 16 at URI 45, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call7.2%16% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt7.0%−0.3average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CONN made the numbers' call on 8 of 8URI made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
- Q1 12:55CONN Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call51.1%97% to makeGo for two51.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 9:10URI Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call49.1%97% to makeGo for two49.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 4:46CONN Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call55.0%97% to makeGo for two55.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:06CONN Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call66.5%97% to makeGo for two66.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:57URI Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call39.6%97% to makeGo for two39.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:12CONN Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call69.3%97% to makeGo for two69.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:08URI Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call37.3%97% to makeGo for two37.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:55CONN Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call74.7%97% to makeGo for two74.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 1:26URI Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call33.1%97% to makeGo for two33.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:13CONN Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call76.5%97% to makeGo for two76.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:33URI Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call28.1%97% to makeGo for two27.9%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 6:04URI Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call42.6%97% to makeGo for two42.4%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 0:55CONN Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call70.8%97% to makeGo for two70.6%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 3:13URI Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call41.5%97% to makeGo for two40.7%−0.845% to convert
- Q4 0:57CONN Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call88.8%97% to makeGo for two86.9%−2.045% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCONNDrive 1TD7 plays · 55 yds · 2:0574% → 74%
URIDrive 2TD9 plays · 75 yds · 3:4526% → 28%
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
73.9%
JaJuan Lawson pass complete to Isaiah Coulter for 5 yds to the RIsld 30Similar
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
73.8%
JaJuan Lawson pass complete to Marven Beauvais for 7 yds to the RIsld 43Similar
Q1 12:55
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+11
73.7%
JaJuan Lawson pass complete to Isaiah Coulter for 11 yds to the UConn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:10
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+22
71.8%
JaJuan Lawson pass complete to Marven Beauvais for 22 yds for a TD (C.J. Carrick KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 3TD12 plays · 75 yds · 4:2473% → 76%
Q1 9:10
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+36
72.6%
David Pindell pass complete to Keyion Dixon for 36 yds to the RIsld 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:10
4TH & 2
OPP 28
+6
72.9%
David Pindell pass complete to Hergy Mayala for 6 yds to the RIsld 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:10
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+6
73.3%
David Pindell pass complete to Kevin Mensah for 6 yds to the RIsld 14Similar
Q1 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
73.3%
David Pindell pass incomplete to Keyion Dixon, broken up by Zay HillSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
URIDrive 4INT5 plays · 26 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q1 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
74.5%
JaJuan Lawson pass complete to Joey Kenny for 6 yds to the RIsld 31Similar
Q1 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
74.1%
JaJuan Lawson pass complete to Aaron Parker for 8 yds to the UConn 49Similar
Q1 4:46
2ND & 2
OPP 49
0
73.6%
JaJuan Lawson pass intercepted Oneil Robinson return for no gain to the UConn 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 5TD16 plays · 51 yds · 5:4476% → 81%
Q1 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+15
76.0%
PINDELL, David pass incomplete to DAVIS, Tyler, PENALTY URI personal foul (Ginnetti) 15 yards to the URI36, 1ST DOWN UCONN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:50
2ND & 15
OPP 41
+12
75.7%
David Pindell pass complete to Zavier Scott for 12 yds to the RIsld 29Similar
Q1 2:50
3RD & 3
OPP 29
+1
75.9%
David Pindell pass complete to Aaron McLean for 1 yd to the RIsld 28Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 16
+5
75.7%
David Pindell pass complete to Zavier Scott for 5 yds to the RIsld 11Similar
Q2 12:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
80.7%
David Pindell pass complete to Hergy Mayala for 5 yds for a TD (Michael Tarbutt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
URIDrive 6TD6 plays · 75 yds · 2:0920% → 28%
Q2 12:06
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+15
80.3%
JaJuan Lawson run for no gain to the RIsld 29 for a 1ST down CONNECTICUT Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Travis Jones) to the RIsld 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+24
80.1%
JaJuan Lawson pass complete to Zoe Bryant Jr. for 24 yds to the UConn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
72.2%
JaJuan Lawson pass complete to Aaron Parker for 17 yds for a TD (C.J. Carrick KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 7TD3 plays · 79 yds · 0:4574% → 82%
URIDrive 8TD5 plays · 72 yds · 2:0419% → 26%
CONNDrive 9TD10 plays · 60 yds · 4:1376% → 85%
Q2 7:08
3RD & 9
OWN 41
+17
75.2%
David Pindell pass complete to Aaron McLean for 17 yds to the RIsld 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:08
2ND & 7
OPP 25
+12
77.0%
SKANES, Quayvon pass incomplete to PINDELL, David, PENALTY URI roughing passer (Bibeault) 12 yards to the URI13, 1ST DOWN UCONN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
84.8%
David Pindell pass complete to Hergy Mayala for 13 yds for a TD (Michael Tarbutt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
URIDrive 10TD6 plays · 75 yds · 1:2917% → 29%
Q2 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+32
82.9%
JaJuan Lawson pass complete to Aaron Parker for 32 yds to the UConn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
81.0%
JaJuan Lawson pass complete to Isaiah Coulter for 5 yds to the UConn 38Similar
Q2 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+14
80.2%
JaJuan Lawson pass complete to Isaiah Coulter for 14 yds to the UConn 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
71.5%
JaJuan Lawson pass complete to Isaiah Coulter for 15 yds for a TD (C.J. Carrick KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 11TD8 plays · 75 yds · 1:1376% → 88%
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+24
75.8%
David Pindell pass complete to Tyler Davis for 24 yds to the UConn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+15
77.6%
RHODE ISLAND Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (D.J. Stewart) to the RIsld 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+7
78.2%
David Pindell pass complete to Hergy Mayala for 7 yds to the RIsld 19Similar
Q2 0:13
2ND & 3
OPP 19
+19
87.8%
David Pindell pass complete to Aaron McLean for 19 yds for a TD (Michael Tarbutt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
URIDrive 12END OF HALF2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 14FUMBLE2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
URIDrive 15PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0015% → 14%
Q3 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-7
85.2%
Naim Jones rush for 16 yards to the URI35, out-of-bounds (LUCIEN, Jeremy), PENALTY URI personal foul (K. Murphy) 7 yards to the URI12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:18
2ND & 20
OWN 9
+15
85.9%
JaJuan Lawson pass complete to Isaiah Coulter for 15 yds to the RIsld 24Similar
Q3 14:18
3RD & 5
OWN 24
0
85.4%
JaJuan Lawson pass incomplete to Marven Beauvais, broken up by Jeremy LucienSimilar
Q3 14:18
4TH & 5
OWN 24
+3
85.6%
Anthony Garro punt for 42 yds , Kyle Buss returns for 3 yds to the UConn 27 CONNECTICUT Penalty, illegal block (Aaron McLean) to the UConn 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 16PUNT5 plays · 14 yds · 0:0087% → 86%
Q3 12:18
4TH & 8
OWN 41
+6
85.6%
Luke Magliozzi punt for 37 yds , Ahmere Dorsey returns for 6 yds to the RIsld 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
URIDrive 17TD4 plays · 72 yds · 2:1314% → 28%
CONNDrive 18INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q3 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
79.1%
David Pindell pass intercepted Rashod Dickerson return for no gain to the UConn 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
URIDrive 19TD6 plays · 34 yds · 2:2128% → 45%
Q3 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-5
72.3%
Naim Jones run for 5 yds to the UConn 29 RHODE ISLAND Penalty, Offensive holding (Dwayne Scott) to the UConn 39Similar
Q3 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
71.8%
JaJuan Lawson pass incomplete to Marven Beauvais, broken up by Oneil RobinsonSimilar
Q3 6:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
55.0%
JaJuan Lawson pass complete to Tyler Burke for 5 yds for a TD (C.J. Carrick KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 20TD11 plays · 82 yds · 5:0964% → 86%
Q3 6:04
3RD & 15
OWN 42
+13
63.2%
David Pindell pass complete to Hergy Mayala for 13 yds to the RIsld 45Similar
Q3 6:04
4TH & 2
OPP 45
+16
65.6%
David Pindell pass complete to Kyle Buss for 16 yds to the RIsld 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:04
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+12
69.1%
David Pindell run for 4 yds to the RIsld 15 for a 1ST down RHODE ISLAND Penalty, personal foul (8 Yards) to the RIsld 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
URIDrive 21PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 0:5522% → 21%
Q4 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 43
0
79.2%
Anthony Garro punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Kyle Buss at the UConn 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 22FUMBLE8 plays · 62 yds · 0:0085% → 86%
Q4 14:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
-5
86.3%
Team run for a loss of 5 yards to the RIsld 19 Team fumbled, recovered by RIsld D.J. StewartSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
URIDrive 23PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0018% → 16%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 24PUNT6 plays · 13 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
URIDrive 25TD6 plays · 67 yds · 3:0215% → 57%
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
84.6%
JaJuan Lawson pass complete to Isaiah Coulter for 7 yds to the RIsld 40Similar
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+11
83.1%
JaJuan Lawson pass complete to Aaron Parker for 11 yds to the UConn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+20
80.1%
JaJuan Lawson pass complete to Aaron Parker for 20 yds to the UConn 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 26TD12 plays · 69 yds · 2:1659% → 97%
Q4 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+13
58.7%
David Pindell pass complete to Tyler Davis for 13 yds to the UConn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:13
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
60.9%
David Pindell pass incomplete to Hergy Mayala, broken up by Rashod DickersonSimilar
Q4 3:13
3RD & 10
OWN 44
+14
58.3%
David Pindell pass complete to Tyler Davis for 14 yds to the RIsld 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:13
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+5
64.2%
David Pindell pass complete to Tyraiq Beals for 5 yds to the RIsld 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
URIDrive 27END OF GAME13 plays · 42 yds · 0:468% → 16%
Q4 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
91.6%
JaJuan Lawson pass incomplete to Naim Jones, broken up by Kevon JonesSimilar
Q4 0:57
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+18
91.9%
JaJuan Lawson pass complete to Aaron Parker for 18 yds to the UConn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:57
3RD & 10
OPP 49
-6
90.9%
JaJuan Lawson sacked by James Atkins for a loss of 6 yards to the RIsld 45Similar
Q4 0:26
4TH & 16
OWN 45
+22
93.3%
JaJuan Lawson pass complete to Aaron Parker for 22 yds to the UConn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:26
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+12
85.6%
JaJuan Lawson pass complete to Isaiah Coulter for 12 yds to the UConn 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:11
2ND & 10
OPP 16
-9
84.4%
JaJuan Lawson sacked by Eli Thomas for a loss of 9 yards to the UConn 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:13
Naim Jones run for 14 yds for a TD (C.J. Carrick KICK)
-37.3
TD · Q4 0:57
Kevin Mensah run for 22 yds for a TD (Michael Tarbutt KICK)
+28.6
TD · Q3 0:55
David Pindell run for 6 yds for a TD (Michael Tarbutt KICK)
+17.1