2018 · Week 2 · Sep 8, 2018 · Albertsons Stadium
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Win probability · BOIS
modelBOIS aheadCONN aheadconfidence bandkey playBOIS scoreCONN score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 15:00 · Luke Magliozzi punt for 59 yds , Khalil Shakir returns for 18 yds to the BoiSt 47 BOISE ST Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the BoiSt 20
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- FG · Q1 9:42: Haden Hoggarth 28 yd FG GOOD — CONN win probability +0.4 pts (now 3%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
- TD · Q1 4:25: Brett Rypien pass complete to John Bates for 24 yds for a TD (Haden Hoggarth KICK) — BOIS win probability +0.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
- TD · Q1 0:45: Alexander Mattison run for 1 yd for a TD (Haden Hoggarth KICK) — BOIS win probability +0.9 pts (now 98%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
- TD · Q2 11:58: John Hightower run for 55 yds for a TD (Haden Hoggarth KICK) — BOIS win probability +0.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
- TD · Q2 2:04: Alexander Mattison run for 9 yds for a TD (Haden Hoggarth KICK) — BOIS win probability +0.4 pts (now 100%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
BOIS made the numbers' call on 3 of 3CONN made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
- Q1 15:00CONN 4th & 6 at CONN 29, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 2.5% before the snapGo for it2.6%−<0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.6%average punt
- Q1 9:42BOIS 4th & 9 at CONN 11, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.7% before the snapGo for it96.6%−0.127% to convertField goalTheir call96.7%87% to makePunt96.2%−0.5average punt
- Q1 9:42CONN 4th & 9 at CONN 26, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.2% before the snapGo for it3.2%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.3%average punt
- Q1 4:25CONN 4th & 17 at CONN 18, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.9% before the snapGo for it2.7%−0.313% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call3.0%average punt
- Q2 15:00CONN 4th & 9 at CONN 38, down 24Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snapGo for it2.2%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.3%average punt
- Q2 11:58CONN 4th & 5 at CONN 40, down 31Close callPunted · 1.2% before the snapGo for it1.2%41% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.2%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 1:20CONN 4th & 10 at CONN 34, down 38Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.3%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q3 14:40CONN 4th & 7 at CONN 28, down 48Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.3%−0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q3 13:45BOIS 4th & 18 at CONN 42, up 48Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snapGo for it99.6%−0.113% to convertField goal99.7%−0.130% to makePuntTheir call99.7%average punt
- Q3 3:11CONN 4th & 12 at CONN 35, down 48Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.123% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 10:12CONN 4th & 1 at CONN 34, down 55Close callPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.1%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%−0.1average punt
- Q4 8:39BOIS 4th & 4 at CONN 17, up 55Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%47% to convertField goal99.9%−<0.180% to makePunt99.5%−0.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BOIS made the numbers' call on 8 of 8CONN made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 7:13BOIS Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.7%97% to makeGo for two96.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 4:25BOIS Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.8%97% to makeGo for two96.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:45BOIS Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.9%97% to makeGo for two97.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:58BOIS Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.1%97% to makeGo for two99.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:04BOIS Touchdown, up 37 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 14:40BOIS Touchdown, up 47 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:52CONN Touchdown, down 42 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.3%97% to makeGo for two0.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:11BOIS Touchdown, up 47 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 10:12BOIS Touchdown, up 54 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCONNDrive 1PUNT6 plays · 4 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q1 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
97.8%
David Pindell pass complete to Tyraiq Beals for no gain to the UConn 23Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+18
97.8%
Luke Magliozzi punt for 59 yds , Khalil Shakir returns for 18 yds to the BoiSt 47 BOISE ST Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the BoiSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 2FG10 plays · 69 yds · 3:2698% → 97%
Q1 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+35
97.6%
Alexander Mattison run for 35 yds to the UConn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
97.6%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Sean Modster for 9 yds to the UConn 36Similar
Q1 13:08
2ND & 1
OPP 36
+5
97.6%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 5 yds to the UConn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:08
3RD & 10
OPP 31
+19
97.6%
Brett Rypien pass complete to CT Thomas for 19 yds to the UConn 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:08
3RD & 9
OPP 11
0
97.6%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to CT Thomas, broken up by Omar ForttSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 3PUNT6 plays · 1 yds · 0:003% → 3%
BOISDrive 4TD2 plays · 71 yds · 0:4497% → 97%
CONNDrive 5INT5 plays · 10 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q1 7:13
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+7
97.0%
David Pindell pass intercepted Avery Williams return for 7 yds to the UConn 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 6TD5 plays · 43 yds · 1:2197% → 98%
CONNDrive 7PUNT7 plays · -7 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q1 4:25
4TH & 17
OWN 18
0
97.4%
Luke Magliozzi punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Khalil Shakir at the BoiSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 8TD6 plays · 64 yds · 1:5797% → 98%
Q1 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
97.4%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Sean Modster for 7 yds to the BoiSt 43Similar
Q1 2:42
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+6
97.4%
Brett Rypien pass complete to John Hightower for 6 yds to the BoiSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
97.4%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Sean Modster for 11 yds to the UConn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 9PUNT6 plays · 13 yds · 0:452% → 2%
BOISDrive 10TD4 plays · 92 yds · 1:4198% → 99%
Q2 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+33
98.3%
Alexander Mattison run for 33 yds to the BoiSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-14
98.4%
MATTISON, Alex rush up middle for 5 yards to the BSU46 (MURPHY, Kevin), PENALTY BSU personal foul (LARSON, Garrett) 14 yards to the BSU27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:39
1ST & 24
OWN 27
+18
98.3%
Brett Rypien pass complete to A.J. Richardson for 18 yds to the BoiSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 11PUNT10 plays · 15 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 11:58
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+8
98.8%
David Pindell pass complete to Aaron McLean for 8 yds to the UConn 28Similar
Q2 11:58
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
98.7%
David Pindell pass complete to Hergy Mayala for 6 yds to the UConn 34Similar
Q2 11:58
4TH & 5
OWN 40
+4
98.7%
Luke Magliozzi punt for 55 yds , Khalil Shakir returns for 4 yds to the BoiSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 12TD13 plays · 91 yds · 6:2299% → 100%
Q2 8:26
2ND & 2
OWN 17
-8
98.8%
MATTISON, Alex rush up middle for 3 yards to the BSU20 (CARROLL, Ryan), PENALTY BSU holding (QUEVEDO, Eric) 8 yards to the BSU9, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:26
3RD & 6
OWN 13
+13
98.8%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Sean Modster for 13 yds to the BoiSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+13
98.8%
Brett Rypien pass complete to John Hightower for 13 yds to the BoiSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:39
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+10
99.2%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Robert Mahone for 10 yds to the UConn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+21
99.2%
Chase Cord pass complete to John Hightower for 21 yds to the UConn 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-2
99.2%
Robert Mahone run for 8 yds to the UConn 20 BOISE ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Chase Blakley) to the UConn 30Similar
Q2 5:39
1ST & 12
OPP 30
+12
99.2%
Brett Rypien pass complete to John Hightower for 12 yds to the UConn 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 13PUNT7 plays · 12 yds · 0:440% → 0%
Q2 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+12
99.6%
David Pindell pass complete to Hergy Mayala for 12 yds to the UConn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:04
3RD & 10
OWN 34
0
99.6%
David Pindell pass complete to Tyler Davis for no gain to the UConn 34Similar
Q2 1:20
4TH & 10
OWN 34
0
99.6%
Luke Magliozzi punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Khalil Shakir at the BoiSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 14FG10 plays · 52 yds · 1:11100% → 100%
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
99.5%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Akilian Butler for 8 yds to the BoiSt 29Similar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 2
OWN 29
+3
99.5%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Alexander Mattison for 3 yds to the BoiSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+12
99.5%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Sean Modster for 12 yds to the BoiSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+10
99.5%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Robert Mahone for 10 yds to the UConn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+9
99.5%
Brett Rypien pass complete to CT Thomas for 9 yds to the UConn 37Similar
Q2 1:13
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+10
99.5%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 10 yds to the UConn 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 16TD2 plays · 74 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+74
99.7%
Brett Rypien pass complete to A.J. Richardson for 74 yds for a TD (Haden Hoggarth KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 17PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 14:40
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
99.7%
Luke Magliozzi punt for 35 yds , Khalil Shakir returns for no gain to the BoiSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 18PUNT10 plays · 21 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 13:45
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+14
99.7%
Alexander Mattison run for 14 yds to the UConn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-14
99.7%
CORD, Chase rush up middle for 23 yards to the UCONN11 (COYLE, Tyler), PENALTY BSU illegal use of hands (MOLCHON, John) 14 yards to the UCONN48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:45
1ST & 24
OPP 48
+3
99.7%
Chase Cord pass complete to Skyler Seibold for 3 yds to the UConn 45Similar
Q3 13:45
2ND & 21
OPP 45
+8
99.7%
Chase Cord pass complete to A.J. Richardson for 8 yds to the UConn 37Similar
Q3 13:45
3RD & 13
OPP 37
0
99.7%
Chase Cord pass incomplete to John Hightower, broken up by Tahj Herring-WilsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 19TD7 plays · 93 yds · 3:260% → 0%
BOISDrive 20TD6 plays · 80 yds · 2:41100% → 100%
Q3 5:52
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+38
99.8%
Chase Cord run for 24 yds to the BOISEST 27 for a 1ST down CONNECTICUT Penalty, personal foul (Oneil Robinson) to the UConn 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 21PUNT8 plays · 10 yds · 0:000% → 0%
BOISDrive 22TD9 plays · 76 yds · 5:12100% → 100%
Q4 10:12
2ND & 11
OPP 24
+24
99.9%
Chase Cord pass complete to Akilian Butler for 24 yds for a TD (Haden Hoggarth KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CONNDrive 23PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 0:000% → 0%
BOISDrive 24END OF GAME13 plays · 48 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 0:45
Alexander Mattison run for 1 yd for a TD (Haden Hoggarth KICK)
+0.9
TD · Q1 4:25
Brett Rypien pass complete to John Bates for 24 yds for a TD (Haden Hoggarth KICK)
+0.6
TD · Q2 11:58
John Hightower run for 55 yds for a TD (Haden Hoggarth KICK)
+0.5