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MEM

Memphis 21 at Navy 22

NAVY
2018 · Week 2 · Sep 8, 2018 · Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · NAVY
modelNAVY aheadMEM aheadconfidence bandkey playNAVY scoreMEM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 15:00 · Owen White punt for 31 yds, fair catch by John Pop Williams at the Memph 15
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+27.0+13.50−13.5−27.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 123Pregame prior−5.7Home team on offense−18.4Garbage-time factor−7.1Score differential−7.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−3.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:07: Malcolm Perry run for 7 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — NAVY win probability +11.9 pts (now 49%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 7:35: Darrell Henderson run for 78 yds for a TD (Riley Patterson KICK) — MEM win probability +18.3 pts (now 69%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 1:19: Darrell Henderson run for 59 yds for a TD (Riley Patterson KICK) — MEM win probability +10.9 pts (now 86%) (top driver: MEM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:06: Malcolm Perry run for 19 yds for a TD (Bennett Moehring KICK) — NAVY win probability +19.0 pts (now 37%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:37: Zach Abey run for 3 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — NAVY win probability +37.1 pts (now 73%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NAVY made the numbers' call on 7 of 10MEM made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 11:24NAVY 4th & 1 at MEM 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    35.1%−0.1
    79% to make
    Punt
    34.7%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:06NAVY 4th & 6 at MEM 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.5%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.6%
    91% to make
    Punt
    35.5%−1.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:06MEM 4th & 11 at MEM 42, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.4%−0.4
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:22NAVY 4th & 5 at NAVY 38, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.5%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00NAVY 4th & 3 at NAVY 43, up 3
    Close callPunted · 40.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.0%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:12MEM 4th & 4 at MEM 23, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.4%−0.2
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:41NAVY 4th & 12 at MEM 48, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.9%−0.7
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.6%
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00NAVY 4th & 1 at NAVY 29, up 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.8 ptsPunted · 48.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.5%−2.8
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:51MEM 4th & 5 at MEM 37, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.8%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:45NAVY 4th & 8 at NAVY 30, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.6%−1.3
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:35NAVY 4th & 9 at NAVY 28, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.4%−2.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:29MEM 4th & 5 at MEM 37, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.1%−0.7
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.7%
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00NAVY 4th & 5 at MEM 46, down 12
    Close callPunted · 18.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.2%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    17.5%−1.7
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    18.9%−0.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:06MEM 4th & 8 at MEM 24, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.3%−3.0
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.4%
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:42NAVY 4th & 1 at MEM 18, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    27.6%−3.3
    79% to make
    Punt
    13.8%−17.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:33MEM 4th & 4 at NAVY 34, down 1
    Numbers favored field goal by 6.2 ptsWent for it · 37.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.0%−6.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    40.2%
    47% to make
    Punt
    25.5%−14.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NAVY made the numbers' call on 1 of 3MEM made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 4:01MEM Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:07NAVY Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    50.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    50.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 7:35MEM Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 1:19MEM Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 11:06NAVY Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:37NAVY Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    67.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    66.9%−0.8
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MEMDrive 1FUMBLE
2 plays · 9 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+11
28.4%
Brady White pass complete to John Pop Williams for 11 yds John Pop Williams fumbled, forced by Sean Williams, recovered by Navy Taylor HeflinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 2FG
13 plays · 32 yds · 6:3929% → 33%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
28.5%
Malcolm Perry run for no gain to the Memph 38Similar
Q1 14:45
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+2
28.5%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 2 yds to the Memph 36Similar
Q1 14:45
3RD & 8
OPP 36
+9
28.5%
Malcolm Perry run for 9 yds to the Memph 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
28.5%
Malcolm Perry run for 6 yds to the Memph 21Similar
Q1 14:45
2ND & 4
OPP 21
+2
28.5%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 2 yds to the Memph 19Similar
Q1 14:45
3RD & 2
OPP 19
+1
28.5%
Zach Abey run for 1 yd to the Memph 18Similar
Q1 11:24
4TH & 1
OPP 18
+2
30.2%
Zach Abey run for 2 yds to the Memph 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+13
30.5%
Tre Walker run for 13 yds to the Memph 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
30.5%
Zach Abey run for a loss of 2 yards to the Memph 5Similar
Q1 11:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
30.5%
Tazh Maloy run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 6Similar
Q1 11:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
30.4%
Nelson Smith run for no gain to the Memph 6Similar
Q1 8:06
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
32.5%
Bennett Moehring 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:0068% → 67%
Q1 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+17
32.3%
Darrell Henderson run for 17 yds to the Memph 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
31.8%
Brady White pass incomplete to Damonte CoxieSimilar
Q1 8:06
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-7
31.9%
Brady White sacked by Taylor Heflin for a loss of 7 yards to the Memph 36Similar
Q1 8:06
3RD & 17
OWN 36
+6
32.6%
Brady White pass complete to Damonte Coxie for 6 yds to the Memph 42Similar
Q1 8:06
4TH & 11
OWN 42
0
32.6%
Adam Williams punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jacob Springer at the Navy 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:0033% → 33%
Q1 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-2
33.0%
Malcolm Perry run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 17Similar
Q1 6:22
2ND & 12
OWN 17
+16
32.8%
Malcolm Perry pass complete to CJ Williams for 16 yds to the Navy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
33.1%
Malcolm Perry run for 3 yds to the Navy 36Similar
Q1 6:22
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+1
33.4%
Malcolm Perry run for 1 yd to the Navy 37Similar
Q1 6:22
3RD & 6
OWN 37
+1
33.0%
Malcolm Perry run for 1 yd to the Navy 38Similar
Q1 6:22
4TH & 5
OWN 38
+8
32.7%
Owen White punt for 47 yds , John Pop Williams returns for 8 yds to the Memph 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 5FUMBLE
7 plays · 41 yds · 0:0065% → 66%
Q1 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
35.2%
Tony Pollard run for 6 yds to the Memph 29Similar
Q1 2:51
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+3
34.7%
Brady White pass complete to Patrick Taylor Jr. for 3 yds to the Memph 32Similar
Q1 2:51
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+7
34.8%
Brady White pass complete to John Pop Williams for 7 yds to the Memph 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
34.4%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 2 yds to the Memph 41Similar
Q1 2:51
2ND & 8
OWN 41
-5
34.3%
Brady White run for a loss of 5 yards to the Memph 36 Brady White fumbled, recovered by Memph Brady WhiteSimilar
Q1 2:51
3RD & 13
OWN 36
+14
35.6%
Brady White pass complete to Kenny Gainwell for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:51
1ST & 10
50
+13
33.9%
Brady White pass complete to Sean Dykes for 13 yds Sean Dykes fumbled, forced by Sean Williams, recovered by Navy Hudson SullivanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:1437% → 36%
Q1 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
36.7%
Malcolm Perry pass incomplete to Taylor JacksonSimilar
Q1 0:14
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+4
36.4%
Malcolm Perry run for 4 yds to the Navy 40Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+3
36.4%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 3 yds to the Navy 43 Anthony Gargiulo fumbled, forced by Curtis Akins, recovered by Navy Tre WalkerSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 43
+39
36.3%
Owen White punt for 39 yds , John Pop Williams returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0063% → 62%
Q2 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
37.0%
Darrell Henderson run for 4 yds to the Memph 21Similar
Q2 14:12
2ND & 6
OWN 21
-2
37.0%
Darrell Henderson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Memph 19Similar
Q2 14:12
3RD & 8
OWN 19
+4
37.7%
Brady White pass complete to Damonte Coxie for 4 yds to the Memph 23Similar
Q2 14:12
4TH & 4
OWN 23
0
38.0%
Adam Williams punt for 51 yds, downed at the Navy 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 26 yds · 0:0038% → 37%
Q2 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
37.7%
CJ Williams run for 5 yds to the Navy 31Similar
Q2 12:41
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+1
37.8%
Tazh Maloy run for 1 yd to the Navy 32Similar
Q2 12:41
3RD & 4
OWN 32
+22
37.2%
Malcolm Perry run for 22 yds to the Memph 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:41
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
39.5%
Malcolm Perry run for 3 yds to the Memph 43Similar
Q2 12:41
2ND & 7
OPP 43
-2
39.4%
Keoni-Kordell Makekau run for a loss of 2 yards to the Memph 45Similar
Q2 12:41
3RD & 9
OPP 45
-3
38.6%
Malcolm Perry sacked by Joseph Dorceus for a loss of 3 yards to the Memph 48Similar
Q2 12:41
4TH & 12
OPP 48
0
36.7%
Owen White punt for 34 yds, downed at the Memph 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 9TD
13 plays · 86 yds · 4:3260% → 69%
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
40.1%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 2 yds to the Memph 16Similar
Q2 8:33
2ND & 8
OWN 16
+2
40.3%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 2 yds to the Memph 18Similar
Q2 8:33
3RD & 6
OWN 18
+10
41.0%
Brady White pass complete to Damonte Coxie for 10 yds to the Memph 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+23
39.6%
Brady White pass complete to John Pop Williams for 23 yds to the Navy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+15
37.6%
Brady White pass complete to Damonte Coxie for 15 yds to the Navy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
36.8%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 8 yds to the Navy 26Similar
Q2 8:33
2ND & 2
OPP 26
+3
36.5%
Brady White pass complete to John Pop Williams for 3 yds to the Navy 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
36.5%
Brady White pass incomplete to Damonte CoxieSimilar
Q2 5:23
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+1
39.6%
Darrell Henderson run for 1 yd to the Navy 22Similar
Q2 5:23
3RD & 9
OPP 22
+11
40.7%
Brady White pass complete to Kenny Gainwell for 11 yds to the Navy 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+9
39.1%
Darrell Henderson run for 9 yds to the Navy 2Similar
Q2 4:01
2ND & 1
OPP 2
+2
31.3%
Darrell Henderson run for 2 yds for a TD (Riley Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 10TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 3:5435% → 49%
Q2 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
34.5%
Malcolm Perry run for 9 yds to the Navy 34Similar
Q2 4:01
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
36.3%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 4 yds to the Navy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
35.7%
Malcolm Perry run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 37Similar
Q2 4:01
2ND & 11
OWN 37
+12
35.0%
Mike Martin run for 12 yds to the Navy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
37.1%
Malcolm Perry run for 3 yds to the Memph 48Similar
Q2 4:01
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+8
37.5%
Tre Walker run for 8 yds to the Memph 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
37.6%
Malcolm Perry run for 3 yds to the Memph 37Similar
Q2 4:01
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+27
37.6%
Zach Abey pass complete to Malcolm Perry for 17 yds to the Memph 20 for a 1ST down MEMPHIS Penalty, face mask (10 yards) (Tito Windham) to the Memph 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
38.6%
Tazh Maloy run for 4 yds to the Memph 6 Tazh Maloy fumbled, forced by T.J. Carter,Similar
Q2 4:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
38.6%
Malcolm Perry run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 7Similar
Q2 0:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
48.7%
Malcolm Perry run for 7 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 11INT
3 plays · 21 yds · 0:0056% → 59%
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+21
43.8%
Darrell Henderson run for 21 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
50
0
40.8%
Brady White pass intercepted Jarid Ryan return for no gain to the Navy 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0047% → 45%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
46.6%
Malcolm Perry run for 4 yds to the Navy 24Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 24
-1
46.7%
Malcolm Perry run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 23Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+6
45.1%
Malcolm Perry pass complete to Anthony Gargiulo for 6 yds to the Navy 29Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
45.0%
Owen White punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Memph 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0054% → 52%
Q3 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
45.9%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 4 yds to the Memph 36Similar
Q3 12:51
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+1
45.2%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 1 yd to the Memph 37Similar
Q3 12:51
3RD & 5
OWN 37
0
46.1%
Brady White pass incomplete to Joey MagnificoSimilar
Q3 12:51
4TH & 5
OWN 37
0
48.0%
Adam Williams punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Jacob Springer at the Navy 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:0048% → 46%
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
48.0%
Nelson Smith run for 1 yd to the Navy 17Similar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 9
OWN 17
+2
47.8%
Tazh Maloy run for 2 yds to the Navy 19Similar
Q3 11:45
3RD & 7
OWN 19
+9
46.5%
Malcolm Perry run for 9 yds to the Navy 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
48.3%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 1 yd to the Navy 29Similar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+1
48.1%
Garret Lewis run for 1 yd to the Navy 30Similar
Q3 11:45
3RD & 8
OWN 30
0
46.8%
Malcolm Perry run for no gain to the Navy 30Similar
Q3 11:45
4TH & 8
OWN 30
+15
45.9%
Owen White punt for 53 yds , John Pop Williams returns for 15 yds to the Memph 45 MEMPHIS Penalty, illegal block ( Yards) to the Memph 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 15TD
2 plays · 78 yds · 0:2151% → 69%
Q3 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
49.5%
Brady White pass incomplete to Damonte CoxieSimilar
Q3 7:35
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+78
31.2%
Darrell Henderson run for 78 yds for a TD (Riley Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0033% → 31%
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
32.8%
Anthony Gargiulo run for no gain to the Navy 27Similar
Q3 7:35
2ND & 10
OWN 27
0
32.4%
Malcolm Perry run for no gain to the Navy 27Similar
Q3 7:35
3RD & 10
OWN 27
+1
31.1%
Malcolm Perry run for 1 yd to the Navy 28Similar
Q3 7:35
4TH & 9
OWN 28
0
30.5%
Owen White punt for 40 yds, fair catch by John Pop Williams at the Memph 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0070% → 68%
Q3 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
30.1%
Brady White pass incomplete to Damonte CoxieSimilar
Q3 5:29
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
30.7%
Brady White pass incomplete to Kenny GainwellSimilar
Q3 5:29
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+5
32.0%
Brady White pass complete to Patrick Taylor Jr. for 5 yds to the Memph 37Similar
Q3 5:29
4TH & 5
OWN 37
0
32.1%
Adam Williams punt for 38 yds, downed at the Navy 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 18FUMBLE
7 plays · 29 yds · 0:4832% → 35%
Q3 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
32.2%
CJ Williams run for 3 yds to the Navy 28Similar
Q3 4:27
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
32.5%
Garret Lewis pass incomplete to Tazh MaloySimilar
Q3 3:39
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+13
28.6%
Garret Lewis pass complete to Taylor Jackson for 13 yds to the Navy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
33.0%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 2 yds to the Navy 43Similar
Q3 3:39
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+12
32.8%
Garret Lewis run for 12 yds to the Memph 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
34.8%
Garret Lewis run for no gain to the Memph 46 Garret Lewis fumbled, forced by JJ Russell, recovered by Memph Tyrez LindseySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 19TD
2 plays · 54 yds · 0:3175% → 86%
Q3 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
25.0%
WHITE, Brady pass complete to GIBSON, Antonio for 12 yards to the NAVY42, out-of-bounds (WILLIAMS, Sean), PENALTY MEMPHIS illegal procedure 5 yards to the MEMPHIS41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:19
1ST & 15
OWN 41
+59
14.1%
Darrell Henderson run for 59 yds for a TD (Riley Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 20PUNT
9 plays · 27 yds · 1:1917% → 17%
Q3 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
16.9%
Malcolm Perry run for 8 yds to the Navy 35Similar
Q3 1:19
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+3
17.6%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 3 yds to the Navy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
17.6%
Malcolm Perry run for 5 yds to the Navy 43Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+6
17.7%
Malcolm Perry run for 6 yds to the Navy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
17.7%
Malcolm Perry run for 5 yds to the Memph 46Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 46
-1
18.4%
Malcolm Perry run for a loss of 1 yard to the Memph 47Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+1
17.5%
Tazh Maloy run for 1 yd to the Memph 46Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 5
OPP 46
0
16.7%
Owen White punt for 31 yds, fair catch by John Pop Williams at the Memph 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 21FUMBLE
2 plays · 12 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q4 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
13.0%
Brady White pass complete to Damonte Coxie for 3 yds to the Memph 18Similar
Q4 12:29
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+11
12.9%
Patrick Taylor Jr. run for 11 yds to the Memph 27 Patrick Taylor Jr. fumbled, forced by Juan Hailey, recovered by Navy Jarvis PoluSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 22TD
2 plays · 27 yds · 0:4518% → 37%
Q4 11:51
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+8
17.9%
Collins Woods III run for 8 yds to the Memph 19Similar
Q4 11:06
2ND & 2
OPP 19
+19
36.9%
Malcolm Perry run for 19 yds for a TD (Bennett Moehring KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0074% → 72%
Q4 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
25.6%
Darrell Henderson run for 1 yd to the Memph 23Similar
Q4 11:06
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+1
25.9%
Darrell Henderson run for 1 yd to the Memph 24Similar
Q4 11:06
3RD & 8
OWN 24
0
26.9%
Brady White pass incomplete to John Pop Williams, broken up by Jarid RyanSimilar
Q4 11:06
4TH & 8
OWN 24
+8
28.4%
Adam Williams punt for 40 yds , Jacob Springer returns for 8 yds to the Navy 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 24TD
17 plays · 56 yds · 6:5135% → 73%
Q4 9:28
1ST & 7
OWN 47
+8
35.1%
Malcolm Perry run for 8 yds to the Memph 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
35.8%
Malcolm Perry run for 4 yds to the Memph 41Similar
Q4 9:28
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+4
35.8%
Malcolm Perry run for 4 yds to the Memph 37Similar
Q4 9:28
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+10
35.0%
Malcolm Perry run for 10 yds to the Memph 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+2
37.8%
Malcolm Perry run for 2 yds to the Memph 25Similar
Q4 9:28
2ND & 8
OPP 25
+4
37.8%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 4 yds to the Memph 21Similar
Q4 9:28
3RD & 4
OPP 21
+3
35.3%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 3 yds to the Memph 18Similar
Q4 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
33.8%
Malcolm Perry run for 13 yds to the NAVY 43 NAVY Penalty, illegal block (Taylor Jackson) to the Navy 47Similar
Q4 4:42
4TH & 1
OPP 18
+2
26.1%
Zach Abey run for 2 yds to the Memph 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:42
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
30.7%
Malcolm Perry run for 6 yds to the Memph 10Similar
Q4 4:42
2ND & 4
OPP 10
+6
30.7%
Anthony Gargiulo run for 6 yds to the Memph 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
28.3%
Tre Walker run for 1 yd to the Memph 3Similar
Q4 2:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
72.5%
Zach Abey run for 3 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEMDrive 25DOWNS
9 plays · 33 yds · 1:0442% → 39%
Q4 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-5
57.6%
MEMPHIS Penalty, delay of game (Brady White) to the Memph 27Similar
Q4 2:37
1ST & 15
OWN 27
+18
59.5%
Brady White pass complete to Darrell Henderson for 18 yds to the Memph 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
54.3%
Darrell Henderson run for 15 yds to the Navy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
51.1%
Darrell Henderson run for 6 yds to the Navy 34Similar
Q4 2:37
2ND & 4
OPP 34
0
48.1%
Brady White pass incomplete to Sean DykesSimilar
Q4 2:37
3RD & 4
OPP 34
0
50.6%
Brady White pass incomplete to John Pop WilliamsSimilar
Q4 1:33
4TH & 4
OPP 34
-1
61.4%
Brady White run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 26END OF GAME
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:0375% → 73%
Q4 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
75.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 34Similar
Q4 1:23
2ND & 11
OWN 34
-1
75.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 33Similar
Q4 1:23
3RD & 12
OWN 33
-4
73.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the Navy 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:37
Zach Abey run for 3 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
+37.1
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+26.9
TD · Q4 11:06
Malcolm Perry run for 19 yds for a TD (Bennett Moehring KICK)
+19
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com