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BUF

Buffalo 36 at Temple 29

TEM
2018 · Week 2 · Sep 8, 2018 · Lincoln Financial Field
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Win probability · TEM
modelTEM aheadBUF aheadconfidence bandkey playTEM scoreBUF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:58 · Connor Bowler punt for 29 yds, fair catch by K.J. Osborn at the Buff 18
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 119Home team on offense−3.9Pregame prior+3.8Score differential−2.3Garbage-time factor−3.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 12:20: Frank Nutile pass complete to Randle Jones for 44 yds for a TD (Will Mobley KICK) — TEM win probability +13.9 pts (now 66%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:08: Kevin Marks run for 1 yd for a TD (Adam Mitcheson KICK) — BUF win probability +18.7 pts (now 62%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 7:43: Tyree Jackson pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 5 yds for a TD (Adam Mitcheson KICK) — BUF win probability +28.4 pts (now 81%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 4:53: Frank Nutile pass complete to Branden Mack for 3 yds for a TD (Will Mobley KICK) — TEM win probability +29.2 pts (now 65%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:59: Tyree Jackson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 29 yds for a TD (Adam Mitcheson KICK) — BUF win probability +38.4 pts (now 95%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TEM made the numbers' call on 6 of 9BUF made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 13:50BUF 4th & 1 at TEM 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    37.9%−0.1
    77% to make
    Punt
    37.4%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:34TEM 4th & 20 at TEM 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.6%−0.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:47BUF 4th & 5 at TEM 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 38.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.6%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    38.4%−0.2
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    38.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:44TEM 4th & 4 at TEM 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.7%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.8%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:45TEM 4th & 1 at BUF 44, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    56.7%−2.0
    27% to make
    Punt
    57.4%−1.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:32BUF 4th & 3 at TEM 41, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    44.4%−1.0
    32% to make
    Punt
    44.6%−0.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:01TEM 4th & 3 at BUF 33, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 49.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.2%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    48.3%−0.9
    49% to make
    Punt
    47.8%−1.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:31TEM 4th & 4 at BUF 23, down 12
    Close callKicked a field goal · 45.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.5%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.2%−0.3
    70% to make
    Punt
    40.2%−5.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:51BUF 4th & 3 at TEM 19, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.0%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    60.1%−0.9
    77% to make
    Punt
    53.3%−7.8
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:00TEM 4th & 5 at BUF 39, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.6%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    37.3%−1.3
    36% to make
    Punt
    38.0%−0.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:15BUF 4th & 5 at BUF 28, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.3%−0.7
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.0%
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:58TEM 4th & 5 at BUF 47, down 5
    Close callPunted · 46.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.4%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.4%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:48BUF 4th & 10 at TEM 29, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 62.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.7%−1.7
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.4%
    58% to make
    Punt
    50.0%−11.5
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:42TEM 4th & 6 at TEM 32, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.3%−1.9
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 15:00BUF 4th & 10 at BUF 28, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.8%−2.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:45TEM 4th & 4 at TEM 44, down 8
    Close callPunted · 28.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.8%−0.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 11:24BUF 4th & 12 at BUF 15, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.7%−4.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TEM made the numbers' call on 3 of 3BUF made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
  1. Q1 1:51BUF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    42.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:00TEM Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 12:20TEM Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:08BUF Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 7:43BUF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.0%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.1%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 4:53TEM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.7%−1.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:59BUF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.9%−0.6
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BUFDrive 1DOWNS
13 plays · 30 yds · 1:1040% → 40%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
50
0
60.0%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to K.J. OsbornSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
50
+2
60.0%
Emmanuel Reed run for 2 yds to the Temp 48Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 48
+10
60.0%
JACKSON, Tyree pass incomplete to JOHNSON, Anthon (YA-SIN,Rock), PENALTY TEM holding (YA-SIN,Rock) 10 yards to the TEM38, 1ST DOWN UB, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
59.9%
Emmanuel Reed run for 2 yds to the Temp 36Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 8
OPP 36
0
59.9%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Tyler Mabry, broken up by Delvon RandallSimilar
Q1 13:50
3RD & 8
OPP 36
+8
59.9%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to George Rushing for 8 yds to the Temp 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+8
59.8%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 8 yds to the Temp 20Similar
Q1 13:50
2ND & 2
OPP 20
+1
59.8%
Emmanuel Reed run for 1 yd to the Temp 19Similar
Q1 13:50
3RD & 1
OPP 19
0
59.9%
Emmanuel Reed run for no gain to the Temp 19Similar
Q1 13:50
4TH & 1
OPP 19
-1
59.9%
Emmanuel Reed run for a loss of 1 yard to the Temp 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 12 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q1 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
60.1%
Ryquell Armstead run for 1 yd to the Temp 21Similar
Q1 11:34
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+9
60.0%
Ryquell Armstead run for 9 yds to the Temp 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
60.1%
Frank Nutile pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:34
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+12
60.1%
Jager Gardner run for 12 yds to the Temp 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-5
60.3%
Jager Gardner run for a loss of 5 yards to the Temp 37Similar
Q1 11:34
2ND & 15
OWN 37
0
60.1%
Frank Nutile pass incomplete to Ventell BryantSimilar
Q1 11:34
3RD & 15
OWN 37
-5
59.9%
TEMPLE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Temp 32Similar
Q1 11:34
3RD & 20
OWN 32
0
59.9%
Frank Nutile run for no gain to the Temp 32Similar
Q1 11:34
4TH & 20
OWN 32
+8
59.8%
Connor Bowler punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Buff 29 , K.J. Osborn returns for 8 yds to the Buff 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 3PUNT
10 plays · 27 yds · 0:0040% → 41%
Q1 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
59.6%
Emmanuel Reed run for 2 yds to the Buff 31Similar
Q1 8:47
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+4
59.6%
Emmanuel Reed run for 4 yds to the Buff 35Similar
Q1 8:47
3RD & 4
OWN 35
+4
59.7%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Zac Lefebvre for 4 yds to the Buff 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
59.4%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to George Rushing for 2 yds to the Buff 41Similar
Q1 8:47
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+2
59.3%
Emmanuel Reed run for 2 yds to the Buff 43Similar
Q1 8:47
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+8
59.4%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 8 yds to the Temp 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:47
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
59.1%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to K.J. Osborn, broken up by Rodney WilliamsSimilar
Q1 8:47
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+5
59.2%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 5 yds to the Temp 44Similar
Q1 8:47
3RD & 5
OPP 44
0
59.2%
Tyree Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:47
4TH & 5
OPP 44
0
59.5%
Evan Finegan punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0060% → 59%
Q1 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
59.7%
Ryquell Armstead run for 4 yds to the Temp 15Similar
Q1 4:44
2ND & 6
OWN 15
+2
59.7%
Ryquell Armstead run for 2 yds to the Temp 17Similar
Q1 4:44
3RD & 4
OWN 17
0
59.3%
Frank Nutile pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:44
4TH & 4
OWN 17
+17
59.0%
Connor Bowler punt for 49 yds , K.J. Osborn returns for 17 yds to the Temp 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 5TD
4 plays · 49 yds · 1:3342% → 45%
Q1 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+12
58.2%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Charlie Jones for 12 yds to the Temp 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
58.2%
Jaret Patterson run for 2 yds to the Temp 35Similar
Q1 3:24
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+2
57.9%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 2 yds to the Temp 33Similar
Q1 1:51
3RD & 6
OPP 33
+33
54.6%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Charlie Jones for 33 yds for a TD (Adam Mitcheson PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 6INT
10 plays · 38 yds · 1:4556% → 58%
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
55.8%
Anthony Russo pass incomplete to Zach MesdaySimilar
Q1 1:45
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+18
55.6%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Brodrick Yancy for 18 yds to the Temp 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
56.9%
Todd Centeio pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:45
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+6
56.8%
Todd Centeio run for 6 yds to the Buff 47Similar
Q1 1:45
3RD & 4
OPP 47
+3
57.1%
Jeremy Jennings run for 3 yds to the Buff 44Similar
Q1 1:45
4TH & 1
OPP 44
+1
56.5%
Rob Ritrovato run for 1 yd to the Buff 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
56.9%
Ryquell Armstead run for 3 yds to the Buff 40Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+7
56.9%
Frank Nutile pass complete to Kenny Yeboah for 7 yds to the Buff 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+37
57.7%
Frank Nutile pass intercepted Cameron Lewis return for 37 yds to the Buff 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 7TD
8 plays · 63 yds · 2:3147% → 56%
Q2 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
52.9%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to George RushingSimilar
Q2 13:32
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+15
53.2%
JACKSON, Tyree pass incomplete to JOHNSON, Anthon, PENALTY TEM pass interference (YA-SIN,Rock) 15 yards to the TEM48, 1ST DOWN UB, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-2
52.1%
Kevin Marks run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 13:32
2ND & 12
50
0
52.5%
Tyree Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:32
3RD & 12
50
+9
53.0%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 9 yds to the Temp 41Similar
Q2 13:32
4TH & 3
OPP 41
+19
53.1%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 19 yds to the Temp 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
51.7%
Tyree Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:01
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+22
44.4%
Kevin Marks run for 22 yds for a TD (Tyree Jackson intercepted )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 8MISSED FG
13 plays · 52 yds · 3:3047% → 42%
Q2 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
46.8%
Frank Nutile run for a loss of 1 yard to the Temp 24Similar
Q2 11:01
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+36
46.7%
Frank Nutile pass complete to Chris Myarick for 36 yds to the Buff 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
48.3%
Frank Nutile pass incomplete to Isaiah Wright, broken up by Khalil HodgeSimilar
Q2 11:01
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+8
48.2%
Jager Gardner run for 8 yds to the Buff 32Similar
Q2 11:01
3RD & 2
OPP 32
-1
48.3%
Jager Gardner run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 33Similar
Q2 11:01
4TH & 3
OPP 33
+4
47.7%
Frank Nutile pass complete to Kenny Yeboah for 4 yds to the Buff 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
49.1%
Frank Nutile pass incomplete to Chris MyarickSimilar
Q2 11:01
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+6
49.1%
Ryquell Armstead run for 6 yds to the Buff 23Similar
Q2 7:40
3RD & 4
OPP 23
0
44.5%
Frank Nutile pass incomplete to Isaiah WrightSimilar
Q2 7:31
4TH & 4
OPP 23
+40
42.4%
Aaron Boumerhi 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 9INT
14 plays · 58 yds · 5:4058% → 65%
Q2 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
42.3%
Kevin Marks run for 3 yds to the Buff 26Similar
Q2 7:31
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+6
42.2%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Kevin Marks for 6 yds to the Buff 32Similar
Q2 7:31
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+3
42.3%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Tyler Mabry for 3 yds to the Buff 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
42.0%
Kevin Marks run for 8 yds to the Buff 43Similar
Q2 7:31
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+8
41.4%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to George Rushing for 8 yds to the Temp 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
41.2%
Kevin Marks run for 6 yds to the Temp 43Similar
Q2 7:31
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+6
40.8%
Kevin Marks run for 6 yds to the Temp 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
40.9%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Anthony Johnson, broken up by Rock Ya-SinSimilar
Q2 7:31
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+11
41.0%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 11 yds to the Temp 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
40.7%
Kevin Marks run for 1 yd to the Temp 25Similar
Q2 7:31
2ND & 9
OPP 25
0
40.9%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Anthony Johnson, broken up by Dan ArchibongSimilar
Q2 7:31
3RD & 9
OPP 25
+6
41.2%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 6 yds to the Temp 19Similar
Q2 1:51
4TH & 3
OPP 19
0
34.9%
Tyree Jackson pass intercepted, touchback. Rock Ya-Sin return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 10TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 1:4538% → 48%
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
37.5%
Frank Nutile pass complete to Isaiah Wright for 6 yds to the Temp 26Similar
Q2 1:45
2ND & 4
OWN 26
-7
37.8%
Frank Nutile sacked by Malcolm Koonce for a loss of 7 yards to the Temp 19Similar
Q2 1:45
3RD & 11
OWN 19
+15
36.4%
Frank Nutile pass complete to Isaiah Wright for 15 yds to the Temp 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+22
37.9%
Frank Nutile pass complete to Ventell Bryant for 22 yds to the Buff 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
39.9%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:45
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+5
39.6%
Frank Nutile pass complete to Kenny Yeboah for 5 yds to the Buff 39Similar
Q2 1:45
3RD & 5
OPP 39
0
39.5%
Frank Nutile pass incomplete to Kenny YeboahSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 5
OPP 39
+39
48.4%
Frank Nutile pass complete to Branden Mack for 39 yds for a TD (Will Mobley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 11TD
7 plays · 74 yds · 2:4049% → 66%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
48.9%
Ryquell Armstead run for 9 yds to the Temp 35Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 35
+5
50.9%
Ryquell Armstead run for 5 yds to the Temp 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
51.0%
Frank Nutile pass incomplete to Branden MackSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+12
49.7%
Frank Nutile pass complete to Freddie Johnson for 12 yds to the Buff 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
52.3%
Ryquell Armstead run for 4 yds to the Buff 44Similar
Q3 12:20
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+44
66.1%
Frank Nutile pass complete to Randle Jones for 44 yds for a TD (Will Mobley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0038% → 36%
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
61.9%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 5 yds to the Buff 28Similar
Q3 12:15
2ND & 5
OWN 28
0
61.2%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Zac LefebvreSimilar
Q3 12:15
3RD & 5
OWN 28
0
62.6%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Antonio NunnSimilar
Q3 12:15
4TH & 5
OWN 28
0
64.0%
Evan Finegan punt for 49 yds, downed at the Temp 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 13INT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0063% → 61%
Q3 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
62.7%
Frank Nutile pass complete to David Martin-Robinson for 2 yds to the Temp 25Similar
Q3 11:22
2ND & 8
OWN 25
-5
62.5%
TEMPLE Penalty, false start (Isaac Moore) to the Temp 20Similar
Q3 11:22
2ND & 13
OWN 20
+1
62.2%
Ryquell Armstead run for 1 yd to the Temp 21Similar
Q3 11:22
3RD & 12
OWN 21
0
61.0%
Frank Nutile pass intercepted Cameron Lewis return for no gain to the Temp 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 14TD
5 plays · 26 yds · 1:2743% → 62%
Q3 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
56.8%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Tyler MabrySimilar
Q3 9:35
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+13
57.2%
Kevin Marks run for 13 yds to the Temp 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+9
56.8%
Kevin Marks run for 9 yds to the Temp 4Similar
Q3 9:35
2ND & 1
OPP 4
+3
56.8%
Tyree Jackson run for 3 yds to the Temp 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
38.1%
Kevin Marks run for 1 yd for a TD (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0048% → 46%
Q3 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
48.0%
Jeremy Jennings run for 5 yds to the Buff 47Similar
Q3 7:58
2ND & 5
OPP 47
0
48.8%
Todd Centeio run for no gain to the Buff 47Similar
Q3 7:58
3RD & 5
OPP 47
0
48.1%
Frank Nutile pass incomplete to Randle JonesSimilar
Q3 7:58
4TH & 5
OPP 47
0
45.5%
Connor Bowler punt for 29 yds, fair catch by K.J. Osborn at the Buff 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 16FG
13 plays · 53 yds · 5:0158% → 72%
Q3 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+8
41.9%
Kevin Marks run for 8 yds to the Buff 26Similar
Q3 6:49
2ND & 2
OWN 26
+6
40.4%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 6 yds to the Buff 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
41.0%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to George Rushing for 5 yds to the Buff 37Similar
Q3 6:49
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+3
40.1%
Kevin Marks run for 3 yds to the Buff 40Similar
Q3 6:49
3RD & 2
OWN 40
-5
39.8%
BUFFALO Penalty, false start (Evin Ksiezarczyk) to the Buff 35Similar
Q3 4:41
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+8
40.4%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 8 yds to the Buff 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
38.2%
Kevin Marks run for 1 yd to the Buff 44Similar
Q3 4:41
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+27
38.2%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Tyler Mabry for 27 yds to the Temp 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
36.6%
Tyree Jackson run for no gain to the Temp 29Similar
Q3 4:41
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
36.8%
Kevin Marks run for no gain to the Temp 29Similar
Q3 4:41
3RD & 10
OPP 29
0
37.8%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to George Rushing, broken up by Rock Ya-SinSimilar
Q3 1:48
4TH & 10
OPP 29
+46
28.4%
Adam Mitcheson 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0031% → 29%
Q3 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-1
31.3%
Jager Gardner run for a loss of 1 yard to the Temp 27Similar
Q3 1:42
2ND & 11
OWN 27
0
30.5%
Frank Nutile pass incomplete to Branden MackSimilar
Q3 1:42
3RD & 11
OWN 27
+5
29.2%
Frank Nutile pass complete to Branden Mack for 5 yds to the Temp 32Similar
Q3 1:42
4TH & 6
OWN 32
0
29.0%
Connor Bowler punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Buff 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2073% → 70%
Q3 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
27.4%
Johnathan Hawkins run for no gain to the Buff 28Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
28.1%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to George RushingSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 28
0
28.7%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to George RushingSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 28
0
30.0%
Evan Finegan punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Wright at the Temp 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0031% → 30%
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
31.1%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Randle Jones for 6 yds to the Temp 44Similar
Q4 14:45
2ND & 4
OWN 44
0
33.2%
Anthony Russo pass incomplete to Todd CenteioSimilar
Q4 14:45
3RD & 4
OWN 44
0
31.9%
Frank Nutile pass incomplete to Isaiah Wright, broken up by Tyrone HillSimilar
Q4 14:45
4TH & 4
OWN 44
0
29.5%
Connor Bowler punt for 50 yds, downed at the Buff 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 20PUNT TD
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:3272% → 42%
Q4 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+11
27.7%
Kevin Marks run for 11 yds to the Buff 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-11
26.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 11 yards to the Buff 6 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Buff Tyree JacksonSimilar
Q4 13:56
2ND & 21
OWN 6
+9
27.9%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 9 yds to the Buff 15Similar
Q4 13:56
3RD & 12
OWN 15
0
27.7%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to George Rushing, broken up by Rock Ya-SinSimilar
Q4 11:24
4TH & 12
OWN 15
0
58.0%
Evan Finegan punt blocked by blocked by Ty Mason return for no gain for a TD (Ventell Bryant pass for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 21TD
9 plays · 58 yds · 3:3949% → 81%
Q4 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+12
50.7%
Kevin Marks run for 12 yds to the Temp 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
49.0%
Kevin Marks run for 2 yds to the Temp 44Similar
Q4 11:22
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+16
49.1%
Kevin Marks run for 16 yds to the Temp 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
47.2%
Kevin Marks run for 4 yds to the Temp 24Similar
Q4 11:22
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+12
47.2%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 12 yds to the Temp 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
47.2%
Kevin Marks run for 4 yds to the Temp 8Similar
Q4 11:22
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+3
47.2%
Kevin Marks run for 3 yds to the Temp 5Similar
Q4 7:43
3RD & 3
OPP 5
+5
18.8%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 5 yds for a TD (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 22TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:5027% → 65%
Q4 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
27.2%
Ryquell Armstead run for 7 yds to the Temp 32Similar
Q4 7:43
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+50
29.6%
Ryquell Armstead run for 50 yds to the Buff 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
35.7%
Frank Nutile pass incomplete to Isaiah WrightSimilar
Q4 7:43
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+5
35.7%
Jeremy Jennings run for 5 yds to the Buff 13Similar
Q4 7:43
3RD & 5
OPP 13
+6
33.1%
Ryquell Armstead run for 6 yds to the Buff 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
35.7%
BUFFALO Penalty, substitution infraction (4 Yards) to the Buff 3Similar
Q4 7:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
35.7%
Frank Nutile pass incomplete to Ryquell Armstead, broken up by Jordan CollierSimilar
Q4 7:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
35.7%
Ryquell Armstead run for no gain to the Buff 3Similar
Q4 4:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
64.8%
Frank Nutile pass complete to Branden Mack for 3 yds for a TD (Will Mobley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 23TD
15 plays · 81 yds · 3:4948% → 95%
Q4 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
52.1%
Kevin Marks run for 4 yds to the Buff 23Similar
Q4 4:48
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+13
51.7%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to K.J. Osborn for 13 yds to the Buff 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
50.2%
Kevin Marks run for 1 yd to the Buff 37Similar
Q4 4:48
2ND & 9
OWN 37
-5
50.6%
JACKSON, Tyree pass complete to OSBORN, K.J. for 27 yards to the TEM36 (WILLIAMS,Rodney), PENALTY UB ineligible downfield on pass (O'HAGAN, James) 5 yards to the UB32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:48
2ND & 14
OWN 32
+4
52.4%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Zac Lefebvre for 4 yds to the Buff 36Similar
Q4 4:48
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+15
52.9%
JACKSON, Tyree pass incomplete to NUNN, Antonio (YA-SIN,Rock), PENALTY TEM personal foul (DIOUBATE,Karamo) 15 yards to the TEM49, 1ST DOWN UB, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:48
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
46.0%
Kevin Marks run for 2 yds to the Temp 47Similar
Q4 4:48
2ND & 8
OPP 47
0
46.1%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Antonio NunnSimilar
Q4 1:36
3RD & 8
OPP 47
+18
46.6%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Charlie Jones for 18 yds to the Temp 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
41.5%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Antonio NunnSimilar
Q4 1:36
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
41.8%
Kevin Marks run for no gain to the Temp 29Similar
Q4 0:59
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+29
4.8%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 29 yds for a TD (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 24FUMBLE
6 plays · -1 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
13.8%
Frank Nutile pass complete to Ventell Bryant for 8 yds to the Temp 41Similar
Q4 0:55
2ND & 2
OWN 41
+8
16.2%
Frank Nutile pass complete to Isaiah Wright for 8 yds to the Temp 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
15.9%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:55
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
15.5%
Frank Nutile pass incomplete to Rob Ritrovato, broken up by Khalil HodgeSimilar
Q4 0:55
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+13
14.1%
Frank Nutile sacked by Chuck Harris for a loss of 6 yards to the Temp 19 Frank Nutile fumbled, recovered by Buff Chibueze Onwuka , return for 0 yards , return for 13 yds to the Temp 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 25END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-2
4.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Temp 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:59
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Anthony Johnson for 29 yds for a TD (Adam Mitcheson KICK)
-38.4
TD · Q4 4:53
Frank Nutile pass complete to Branden Mack for 3 yds for a TD (Will Mobley KICK)
+29.2
TD · Q4 7:43
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 5 yds for a TD (Adam Mitcheson KICK)
-28.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com