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TCU

TCU 42 at SMU 12

SMU
2018 · Week 2 · Sep 7, 2018 · Gerald J. Ford Stadium
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Win probability · SMU
modelSMU aheadTCU aheadconfidence bandkey playSMU scoreTCU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDSAFETYTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:23 · Xavier Jones run for 6 yds to the TCU 48 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+57.0+28.50−28.5−57.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 93Pregame prior−31.7Home team on offense−4.4Score differential−1.7Garbage-time factor−1.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:34: KaVontae Turpin 78 Yd Punt Return (Cole Bunce Kick) — TCU win probability +2.7 pts (now 86%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 8:13: Sewo Olonilua run for 21 yds Sewo Olonilua fumbled, recovered by TCU Jaelan Austin for a TD, (Cole Bunce KICK) — TCU win probability +3.4 pts (now 88%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 0:00: Kevin Robledo 49 Yd Field Goal — SMU win probability +1.8 pts (now 20%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q3 7:28: Shawn Robinson run for 18 yds for a TD, (Cole Bunce KICK) — TCU win probability +6.2 pts (now 94%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:06: Shawn Robinson pass complete to KaVontae Turpin for 42 yds for a TD, (Cole Bunce KICK) — TCU win probability +3.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TCU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SMU made the numbers' call on 11 of 13TCU made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
  1. Q1 10:39TCU 4th & 14 at TCU 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.7%−0.2
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:03SMU 4th & 11 at TCU 42, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.1%−<0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    13.0%−0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    13.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:45SMU 4th & 4 at SMU 46, up 9
    Close callPunted · 15.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.0%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:25TCU 4th & 7 at SMU 31, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.6%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.6%
    54% to make
    Punt
    79.1%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:34SMU 4th & 10 at SMU 30, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.3%−0.7
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:40SMU 4th & 10 at SMU 27, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.3%−0.5
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:46SMU 4th & 9 at SMU 28, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.9%−0.7
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:01TCU 4th & 7 at SMU 44, up 5
    Close callPunted · 83.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.7%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    82.9%−0.8
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    83.4%−0.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:38SMU 4th & 12 at SMU 8, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.4%−1.7
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.2%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:23SMU 4th & 1 at SMU 46, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    18.3%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:19SMU 4th & 20 at SMU 14, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.7%−2.5
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:38SMU 4th & 11 at SMU 25, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.4%−1.0
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.4%
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:58TCU 4th & 11 at SMU 41, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.8%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    92.7%−0.3
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    93.0%
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:35SMU 4th & 12 at SMU 6, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.1%−1.6
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.6%
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:47SMU 4th & 12 at SMU 40, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.6%−0.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.8%
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:17TCU 4th & 2 at SMU 48, up 23
    Close callPunted · 98.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.6%−0.2
    average punt
  17. Q4 7:36SMU 4th & 9 at SMU 11, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.2%
    average punt
  18. Q4 4:43SMU 4th & 8 at TCU 44, down 30
    Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%−<0.1
    27% to make
    Punt
    0.2%
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:25TCU 4th & 6 at SMU 46, up 30
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SMU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1TCU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 13:10SMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:34TCU Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 7:28TCU Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 14:06TCU Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 6:47TCU Touchdown, up 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SMUDrive 1TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:376% → 7%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
6.2%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 6 yds to the SMU 31Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+7
6.3%
Braeden West run for 7 yds to the SMU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
6.5%
Braeden West run for 1 yd to the SMU 39Similar
Q1 13:25
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+10
6.7%
Ben Hicks run for 10 yds to the SMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+51
6.9%
Braeden West 51 Yd Run (Will Moore Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 2:2693% → 92%
Q1 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
6.9%
Sewo Olonilua run for 6 yds to the TCU 36Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+9
6.9%
Sewo Olonilua run for 9 yds to the TCU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
7.0%
Shawn Robinson run for no gain to the TCU 45 Shawn Robinson fumbled, recovered by TCU Shawn RobinsonSimilar
Q1 12:30
2ND & 10
OWN 45
-4
7.1%
Shawn Robinson pass complete to Sewo Olonilua for a loss of 4 yards to the TCU 41Similar
Q1 12:20
3RD & 14
OWN 41
0
7.3%
Shawn Robinson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:39
4TH & 14
OWN 41
+14
8.1%
Adam Nunez punt for 38 yds , Reggie Roberson Jr. returns for 14 yds to the SMU 45 SMU Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the SMU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 3PUNT
13 plays · 33 yds · 4:198% → 11%
Q1 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
8.2%
Braeden West run for 4 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q1 9:52
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
8.5%
Braeden West run for 3 yds to the SMU 32Similar
Q1 9:16
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+3
8.8%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 3 yds to the SMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
9.1%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Myron Gailliard for 6 yds to the SMU 41Similar
Q1 8:18
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+6
9.6%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 6 yds to the SMU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
9.7%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Myron Gailliard for 8 yds to the TCU 45Similar
Q1 7:43
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+1
9.9%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 1 yd to the TCU 44Similar
Q1 7:15
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+3
10.1%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 3 yds to the TCU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
10.5%
Ben Hicks pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:50
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
10.5%
Ben Hicks pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:21
3RD & 10
OPP 41
-1
10.6%
Ben Hicks sacked by Ty Summers for a loss of 1 yard to the TCU 42Similar
Q1 6:03
4TH & 11
OPP 42
0
10.5%
Jamie Sackville punt for 32 yds, downed at the TCU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 4SF
7 plays · -10 yds · 0:5589% → 88%
Q1 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
10.7%
Shawn Robinson pass incomplete to Jalen ReagorSimilar
Q1 5:50
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+5
10.8%
SMU Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the TCU 15Similar
Q1 5:29
2ND & 5
OWN 15
+13
11.0%
Shawn Robinson run for 13 yds to the TCU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
10.9%
Shawn Robinson pass incomplete to Jalen ReagorSimilar
Q1 5:16
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
11.1%
Shawn Robinson pass incomplete to Jarrison StewartSimilar
Q1 5:08
3RD & 10
OWN 28
0
11.3%
Shawn Robinson pass incomplete to Jarrison StewartSimilar
Q1 5:00
4TH & 10
OWN 28
0
11.6%
Team SafetySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:0412% → 12%
Q1 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
11.8%
Braeden West run for 1 yd to the SMU 41Similar
Q1 4:22
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+5
11.9%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 5 yds to the SMU 46Similar
Q1 3:57
3RD & 4
OWN 46
0
12.2%
Ben Hicks pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:45
4TH & 4
OWN 46
0
12.1%
Jamie Sackville punt for 52 yds, downed at the TCU 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 6MISSED FG
12 plays · 67 yds · 5:0787% → 83%
Q1 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+2
12.7%
Sewo Olonilua run for 2 yds to the TCU 4Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 8
OWN 4
+23
13.1%
Shawn Robinson pass complete to Jalen Reagor for 23 yds to the TCU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
12.9%
Sewo Olonilua run for 5 yds to the TCU 32Similar
Q1 1:35
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+8
13.8%
Shawn Robinson pass complete to Taye Barber for 8 yds to the TCU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-2
14.1%
Sewo Olonilua run for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 38Similar
Q1 0:25
2ND & 12
OWN 38
+13
15.0%
Shawn Robinson pass complete to Jaelan Austin for 13 yds to the SMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+15
14.6%
Darius Anderson run for 15 yds to the SMU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:39
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
14.6%
Shawn Robinson pass complete to Sewo Olonilua for 5 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q2 13:44
2ND & 5
OPP 29
-2
15.4%
Shawn Robinson pass complete to Darius Anderson for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 31Similar
Q2 13:29
3RD & 7
OPP 31
0
16.2%
Shawn Robinson pass incomplete to Jaelan AustinSimilar
Q2 13:25
4TH & 7
OPP 31
+48
17.1%
Cole Bunce 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 7PUNT TD
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:3217% → 14%
Q2 13:06
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
16.9%
William Brown run for 5 yds to the SMU 35Similar
Q2 12:58
2ND & 5
OWN 35
0
17.3%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Myron GailliardSimilar
Q2 12:58
3RD & 5
OWN 35
-5
16.8%
SMU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SMU 30Similar
Q2 12:52
3RD & 10
OWN 30
0
16.6%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Xavier JonesSimilar
Q2 12:34
4TH & 10
OWN 30
+78
13.9%
KaVontae Turpin 78 Yd Punt Return (Cole Bunce Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 1:4015% → 15%
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-6
14.8%
Braeden West run for 4 yds to the SMU 31 SMU Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the SMU 21Similar
Q2 11:47
1ST & 16
OWN 21
+1
15.0%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Ryan Becker for 1 yd to the SMU 22Similar
Q2 11:11
2ND & 15
OWN 22
0
15.3%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for no gain to the SMU 22Similar
Q2 10:47
3RD & 15
OWN 22
+5
15.2%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Braeden West for 5 yds to the SMU 27Similar
Q2 10:40
4TH & 10
OWN 27
0
15.0%
Jamie Sackville punt for 43 yds, fair catch by KaVontae Turpin at the TCU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 9TD
6 plays · 70 yds · 2:1784% → 88%
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+19
15.6%
Derius Davis run for 19 yds to the TCU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
15.0%
Shawn Robinson pass complete to KaVontae Turpin for 9 yds to the SMU 42Similar
Q2 9:32
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+5
15.0%
Darius Anderson run for 5 yds to the SMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
15.3%
Shawn Robinson pass complete to Darius Anderson for no gain to the SMU 37Similar
Q2 8:48
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+7
15.6%
Darius Anderson run for 7 yds to the SMU 30Similar
Q2 8:13
3RD & 3
OPP 30
0
12.2%
Sewo Olonilua run for 21 yds Sewo Olonilua fumbled, recovered by TCU Jaelan Austin for a TD, (Cole Bunce KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:0813% → 13%
Q2 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
13.1%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 1 yd to the SMU 28Similar
Q2 7:07
2ND & 9
OWN 28
0
13.4%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for no gain to the SMU 28Similar
Q2 6:52
3RD & 9
OWN 28
0
13.0%
Ben Hicks pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:46
4TH & 9
OWN 28
0
12.8%
Jamie Sackville punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TCU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:2587% → 86%
Q2 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
13.0%
Shawn Robinson pass complete to Artayvious Lynn for 9 yds to the TCU 49Similar
Q2 6:05
2ND & 1
OWN 49
+4
13.0%
Darius Anderson run for 4 yds to the SMU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
13.2%
Shawn Robinson pass complete to KaVontae Turpin for 8 yds to the SMU 39Similar
Q2 5:14
2ND & 2
OPP 39
-5
13.2%
TCU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the SMU 44Similar
Q2 4:50
2ND & 7
OPP 44
0
12.9%
Shawn Robinson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:44
3RD & 7
OPP 44
0
13.1%
Shawn Robinson run for no gain to the SMU 44Similar
Q2 4:01
4TH & 7
OPP 44
0
14.0%
Adam Nunez punt for 34 yds, fair catch by James Proche at the SMU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 1:1714% → 15%
Q2 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-2
14.3%
Braeden West run for 6 yds to the SMU 16 SMU Penalty, Offensive Holding (-8 Yards) to the SMU 8Similar
Q2 3:18
1ST & 12
OWN 8
-2
14.4%
Braeden West run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 6Similar
Q2 2:58
2ND & 14
OWN 6
0
14.5%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Reggie Roberson Jr.Similar
Q2 2:50
3RD & 14
OWN 6
+2
13.9%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Myron Gailliard for 2 yds to the SMU 8Similar
Q2 2:38
4TH & 12
OWN 8
0
14.7%
Jamie Sackville punt for 52 yds, downed at the TCU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 13FUMBLE
3 plays · 24 yds · 0:3986% → 86%
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
14.4%
Darius Anderson run for 6 yds to the TCU 46Similar
Q2 1:58
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+18
14.2%
Shawn Robinson run for 18 yds to the SMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
13.6%
TEAM run for no gain to the SMU 37 TEAM fumbled, recovered by SMU Chris BiggursSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 14END OF HALF
11 plays · 31 yds · 1:3516% → 20%
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
16.3%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Reggie Roberson Jr.Similar
Q2 1:23
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+7
16.3%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 7 yds to the SMU 44Similar
Q2 0:44
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+2
17.1%
Xavier Jones run for 2 yds to the SMU 46Similar
Q2 0:23
4TH & 1
OWN 46
+6
15.6%
Xavier Jones run for 6 yds to the TCU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
17.1%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 7 yds to the TCU 41Similar
Q2 0:13
2ND & 3
OPP 41
0
17.2%
Ben Hicks pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:08
3RD & 3
OPP 41
+9
17.0%
Ben Hicks run for 9 yds to the TCU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
18.5%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:03
2ND & 10
OPP 32
0
18.5%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to James ProcheSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 32
+49
20.3%
Kevin Robledo 49 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 15INT
10 plays · 38 yds · 3:1882% → 82%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
17.9%
Shawn Robinson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:44
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+8
18.1%
Shawn Robinson run for 8 yds to the TCU 46Similar
Q3 14:08
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+3
18.2%
Sewo Olonilua run for 3 yds to the TCU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
18.2%
Shawn Robinson pass incomplete to Jalen ReagorSimilar
Q3 13:24
2ND & 10
OWN 49
-5
18.4%
Sewo Olonilua run for a loss of 5 yards to the TCU 44Similar
Q3 12:43
3RD & 15
OWN 44
+15
20.6%
SMU Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the SMU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+9
19.1%
Darius Anderson run for 9 yds to the SMU 32Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 1
OPP 32
+8
18.3%
Darius Anderson run for 8 yds to the SMU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+8
18.5%
Shawn Robinson pass intercepted Shaine Hailey return for 8 yds to the SMU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 16FUMBLE TD
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:2123% → 14%
Q3 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
23.1%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for no gain to the SMU 28Similar
Q3 10:50
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+25
14.3%
Ben Hicks sacked by Ben Banogu for a loss of 4 yards Ben Hicks fumbled, recovered by TCU Alec Dunham , return for 0 yards , return for 25 yds, (Cole Bunce KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 1:1114% → 13%
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
13.8%
Xavier Jones run for no gain to the SMU 24Similar
Q3 10:08
2ND & 10
OWN 24
0
13.8%
Ben Hicks pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:43
3RD & 10
OWN 24
-10
13.2%
Ben Hicks sacked by Corey Bethley for a loss of 10 yards to the SMU 14Similar
Q3 9:19
4TH & 20
OWN 14
0
12.9%
Jamie Sackville punt for 30 yds, fair catch by KaVontae Turpin at the SMU 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 18TD
3 plays · 44 yds · 1:4187% → 94%
Q3 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+13
12.6%
Shawn Robinson pass complete to Jalen Reagor for 13 yds to the SMU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+13
12.5%
Darius Anderson run for 13 yds to the SMU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:28
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
6.3%
Shawn Robinson run for 18 yds for a TD, (Cole Bunce KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 0:488% → 8%
Q3 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+11
8.0%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Ke'Mon Freeman for 11 yds to the SMU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
8.2%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 9 yds to the SMU 35Similar
Q3 6:54
2ND & 1
OWN 35
0
8.6%
Ben Hicks pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:54
3RD & 1
OWN 35
-10
8.5%
SMU Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the SMU 25Similar
Q3 6:45
3RD & 11
OWN 25
0
7.9%
Ben Hicks pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:38
4TH & 11
OWN 25
0
7.8%
Jamie Sackville punt for 42 yds , KaVontae Turpin returns for no gain to the TCU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 20PUNT
11 plays · 26 yds · 4:3293% → 94%
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
7.1%
Shawn Robinson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:19
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+8
7.1%
Shawn Robinson pass complete to Taye Barber for 8 yds to the TCU 41Similar
Q3 5:55
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+3
6.9%
Sewo Olonilua run for 3 yds to the TCU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
6.6%
Sewo Olonilua run for 8 yds to the SMU 48Similar
Q3 4:46
2ND & 2
OPP 48
0
6.0%
Shawn Robinson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:40
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+8
6.3%
Shawn Robinson run for 8 yds to the SMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
6.1%
Sewo Olonilua run for no gain to the SMU 40Similar
Q3 3:22
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-10
6.1%
TCU Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 2:44
2ND & 20
50
+9
6.1%
Shawn Robinson pass complete to Jalen Reagor for 9 yds to the SMU 41Similar
Q3 2:06
3RD & 11
OPP 41
0
6.0%
Shawn Robinson pass incomplete to Jalen ReagorSimilar
Q3 1:58
4TH & 11
OPP 41
0
6.5%
Adam Nunez punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SMU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:058% → 8%
Q3 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
7.9%
Xavier Jones run for 3 yds to the SMU 11Similar
Q3 0:50
2ND & 7
OWN 11
-5
8.1%
Ben Hicks sacked by Ben Banogu for a loss of 5 yards to the SMU 6Similar
Q3 0:41
3RD & 12
OWN 6
0
7.7%
Ben Hicks pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:35
4TH & 12
OWN 6
0
7.7%
Jamie Sackville punt for 43 yds, fair catch by KaVontae Turpin at the SMU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 22TD
3 plays · 49 yds · 1:0895% → 99%
Q3 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
4.9%
Shawn Robinson pass complete to KaVontae Turpin for 5 yds to the SMU 44Similar
Q4 14:45
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+2
4.7%
Darius Anderson run for 2 yds to the SMU 42Similar
Q4 14:06
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+42
1.4%
Shawn Robinson pass complete to KaVontae Turpin for 42 yds for a TD, (Cole Bunce KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 0:592% → 2%
Q4 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+15
1.7%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 15 yds to the SMU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-2
1.8%
Braeden West run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 40Similar
Q4 13:02
2ND & 12
OWN 40
0
1.7%
Ben Hicks pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:55
3RD & 12
OWN 40
0
1.7%
Ben Hicks pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:47
4TH & 12
OWN 40
0
1.6%
Jamie Sackville punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TCU 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 24 yds · 2:5699% → 99%
Q4 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
1.4%
Jalen Reagor run for 8 yds to the TCU 36Similar
Q4 11:58
2ND & 2
OWN 36
+8
1.3%
Emari Demercado run for 8 yds to the TCU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
1.2%
Emari Demercado run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 10:35
2ND & 4
50
0
1.1%
Emari Demercado run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 9:48
3RD & 4
50
+2
1.0%
Shawn Robinson run for 2 yds to the SMU 48Similar
Q4 9:17
4TH & 2
OPP 48
0
1.1%
Adam Nunez punt for 38 yds , James Proche returns for no gain to the SMU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:352% → 1%
Q4 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-5
1.5%
SMU Penalty, Offensive Holding (-5 Yards) to the SMU 5Similar
Q4 8:56
1ST & 15
OWN 5
+7
1.4%
Xavier Jones run for 7 yds to the SMU 12Similar
Q4 8:14
2ND & 8
OWN 12
-1
1.4%
Xavier Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 11Similar
Q4 7:51
3RD & 9
OWN 11
0
1.2%
Ben Hicks pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:36
4TH & 9
OWN 11
+34
1.2%
Jamie Sackville punt for 38 yds , KaVontae Turpin returns for 34 yds to the SMU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 26TD
2 plays · 15 yds · 0:2499% → 100%
Q4 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
0.9%
Emari Demercado run for 5 yds to the SMU 10Similar
Q4 6:47
2ND & 5
OPP 10
+10
0.2%
Michael Collins run for 10 yds for a TD (Cole Bunce KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 27DOWNS
8 plays · 35 yds · 1:420% → 0%
Q4 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
0.2%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Braeden West for 9 yds to the SMU 34Similar
Q4 5:42
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+5
0.2%
Braeden West run for 5 yds to the SMU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
0.2%
TCU Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the TCU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
0.2%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Xavier Jones for 2 yds to the TCU 44Similar
Q4 4:45
2ND & 8
OPP 44
0
0.2%
Ben Hicks pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:44
3RD & 8
OPP 44
0
0.2%
Ben Hicks pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:43
4TH & 8
OPP 44
+4
0.2%
Ben Hicks run for 4 yds to the TCU 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TCUDrive 28PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 2:48100% → 100%
Q4 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-2
0.2%
Grayson Muehlstein run for a loss of 2 yards to the TCU 38Similar
Q4 4:06
2ND & 12
OWN 38
+12
0.2%
Michael Collins run for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:33
1ST & 10
50
+4
0.2%
Emari Demercado run for 4 yds to the SMU 46Similar
Q4 2:45
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+5
0.1%
Emari Demercado run for 5 yds to the SMU 41Similar
Q4 2:10
3RD & 1
OPP 41
0
0.1%
Grayson Muehlstein run for no gain to the SMU 41Similar
Q4 1:30
4TH & 1
OPP 41
-5
0.1%
TCU Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the SMU 46Similar
Q4 1:25
4TH & 6
OPP 46
0
0.1%
Adam Nunez punt for 41 yds, fair catch by James Proche at the SMU 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 29Uncategorized
5 plays · 31 yds · 1:200% → 0%
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
0.1%
Ben Hicks pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 10
OWN 5
+5
0.1%
Xavier Jones run for 5 yds to the SMU 10Similar
Q4 0:30
3RD & 5
OWN 10
+17
0.1%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 17 yds to the SMU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
0.1%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Myron Gailliard for 7 yds to the SMU 34Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+2
0.1%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Xavier Jones for 2 yds to the SMU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:28
Shawn Robinson run for 18 yds for a TD, (Cole Bunce KICK)
-6.2
TD · Q2 8:13
Sewo Olonilua run for 21 yds Sewo Olonilua fumbled, recovered by TCU Jaelan Austin for a TD, (Cole Bunce KICK)
-3.4
TD · Q4 14:06
Shawn Robinson pass complete to KaVontae Turpin for 42 yds for a TD, (Cole Bunce KICK)
-3.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com