Try the model
CARK

Central Arkansas 27 at Tulsa 38

TLSA
2018 · Week 1 · Sep 1, 2018 · Chapman Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · TLSA
modelTLSA aheadCARK aheadconfidence bandkey playTLSA scoreCARK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 10:18 · Thomas Bennett punt for 68 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+32.0+16.00−16.0−32.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 74Pregame prior+22.3Home team on offense+1.3Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2Score differential−0.1Blowout margin−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:54: Kierre Crossley run for 1 yd for a TD (Matt Cummins KICK) — CARK win probability +3.4 pts (now 25%) (top driver: CARK has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:10: Shamari Brooks run for 1 yd for a TD (Nathan Walker KICK) — TLSA win probability +4.6 pts (now 84%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:52: Breylin Smith run for 2 yds for a TD (Matt Cummins KICK) — CARK win probability +13.0 pts (now 35%) (top driver: CARK has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 8:11: Luke Skipper pass complete to Cole Neph for 14 yds for a TD (Nathan Walker KICK) — TLSA win probability +24.6 pts (now 78%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:36: Shamari Brooks run for 1 yd for a TD (Nathan Walker KICK) — TLSA win probability +12.0 pts (now 94%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TLSA made the numbers' call on 5 of 7CARK made the numbers' call on 4 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00TLSA 4th & 1 at TLSA 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    78.5%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:43CARK 4th & 2 at TLSA 2, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 21.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.6%−0.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    21.1%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:43TLSA 4th & 17 at TLSA 18, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.2%−0.3
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:23CARK 4th & 19 at TLSA 23, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.1%−0.5
    10% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.6%
    70% to make
    Punt
    21.4%−1.2
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:23TLSA 4th & 3 at TLSA 32, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.6%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.7%
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:54TLSA 4th & 3 at CARK 42, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    73.6%−0.5
    30% to make
    Punt
    73.8%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:57CARK 4th & 1 at CARK 49, down 1
    Close callPunted · 25.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.7%−0.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 12:56TLSA 4th & 1 at TLSA 16, up 1
    Close callPunted · 73.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.6%−0.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 11:37CARK 4th & 7 at CARK 41, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.1%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.5%
    average punt
  10. Q2 10:18TLSA 4th & 9 at TLSA 32, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.8%−0.6
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.4%
    average punt
  11. Q2 9:29CARK 4th & 6 at CARK 24, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.8%−0.4
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.2%
    average punt
  12. Q2 2:50CARK 4th & 2 at TLSA 49, down 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 20.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.5%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.3%−1.2
    average punt
  13. Q3 15:00CARK 4th & 1 at CARK 34, down 8
    Close callPunted · 18.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.9%−1.0
    average punt
  14. Q3 12:22CARK 4th & 5 at TLSA 35, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.4%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    19.6%−0.8
    45% to make
    Punt
    18.6%−1.8
    average punt
  15. Q3 1:25TLSA 4th & 2 at CARK 22, up 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsKicked a field goal · 70.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.1%−1.9
    72% to make
    Punt
    57.1%−12.9
    average punt
  16. Q4 15:00CARK 4th & 4 at CARK 49, down 4
    Close callPunted · 28.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.6%−1.0
    average punt
  17. Q4 7:36CARK 4th & 5 at CARK 40, down 11
    Close callPunted · 8.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.2%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.0%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TLSA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5CARK made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 12:49TLSA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:54CARK Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:57TLSA Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:10TLSA Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:52CARK Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 8:11TLSA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 7:36TLSA Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TLSADrive 1TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:1182% → 81%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
81.7%
Shamari Brooks run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
81.7%
Corey Taylor II run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 33Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
81.7%
Corey Taylor II run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+4
81.7%
Corey Taylor II run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
81.7%
Luke Skipper pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+9
81.7%
Luke Skipper pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 9 yds to the Tulsa 47Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+4
81.7%
Luke Skipper run for 4 yds to the CArk 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+49
81.7%
Luke Skipper pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 49 yds for a TD (Nathan Walker KICK)Similar
Q1 12:49
1ST & GOAL
OWN 20
-5
81.4%
TULSA Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Tulsa 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 2FG
8 plays · 27 yds · 1:5819% → 19%
Q1 12:41
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
81.4%
Carlos Blackman run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 23Similar
Q1 12:41
2ND & 4
OPP 23
+8
81.4%
Cedric Battle run for 8 yds to the Tulsa 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:41
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+11
81.4%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Lester Wells for 11 yds to the Tulsa 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
81.4%
Carlos Blackman run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 2Similar
Q1 12:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
81.4%
Breylin Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
81.4%
Breylin Smith pass incomplete to Lester Wells, broken up by McKinley WhitfieldSimilar
Q1 10:43
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+19
80.7%
Matt Cummins 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 3PUNT
6 plays · -7 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q1 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
80.8%
Shamari Brooks run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 28Similar
Q1 10:43
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-6
80.8%
Luke Skipper sacked by Chris Terrell for a loss of 6 yards to the Tulsa 22Similar
Q1 10:43
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+5
80.6%
SKIPPER, L. pass intercepted by Ware, Michael at the UCA40, Ware, Michael return to the UCA40, PENALTY UCA offside defense 5 yards to the TLS27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:43
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-9
80.6%
Luke Skipper sacked by Nathan Grant and Cardell Best for a loss of 9 yards to the Tulsa 18Similar
Q1 10:43
4TH & 17
OWN 18
+5
80.6%
Thomas Bennett punt for 38 yds , Dwayne Smith returns for 5 yds to the CArk 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 4FG
7 plays · 28 yds · 2:1220% → 20%
Q1 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
80.1%
Carlos Blackman run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 47Similar
Q1 8:35
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+33
80.0%
Carlos Blackman run for 18 yds to the Tulsa 29 for a 1ST down TULSA Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Tulsa 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
80.0%
Breylin Smith pass incomplete to Brandon MyersSimilar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+3
80.0%
Carlos Blackman run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 11Similar
Q1 7:30
3RD & 7
OPP 11
-12
80.2%
Breylin Smith sacked by Diamon Cannon for a loss of 12 yards to the Tulsa 23 CENTRAL ARK Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 6:23
4TH & 19
OPP 23
+40
79.9%
Matt Cummins 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q1 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
80.0%
Shamari Brooks run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q1 6:23
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
80.0%
Luke Skipper pass complete to Jarion Anderson for 5 yds to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q1 6:23
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
79.9%
Luke Skipper pass incomplete to Justin HobbsSimilar
Q1 6:23
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+22
79.8%
Thomas Bennett punt for 37 yds, downed at the TULSA 31 TULSA Penalty, kick catching interference (-15 Yards) to the CArk 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 6TD
4 plays · 54 yds · 1:1521% → 25%
Q1 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+10
78.8%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Jakari Dillard for 10 yds to the Tulsa 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
78.7%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Lester Wells for no gain to the Tulsa 44Similar
Q1 5:09
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+43
78.7%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Kierre Crossley for 43 yds to the Tulsa 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
75.3%
Kierre Crossley run for 1 yd for a TD (Matt Cummins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 7TD
16 plays · 65 yds · 3:5777% → 80%
Q1 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
76.9%
Corey Taylor II run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 39Similar
Q1 3:54
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+5
77.4%
Corey Taylor II run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 44Similar
Q1 3:54
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+7
77.4%
Corey Taylor II run for 7 yds to the CArk 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
77.7%
Luke Skipper pass incomplete to Justin HobbsSimilar
Q1 3:54
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+7
77.6%
Corey Taylor II run for 7 yds to the CArk 42Similar
Q1 3:54
3RD & 3
OPP 42
0
77.7%
Luke Skipper pass incomplete to Justin HobbsSimilar
Q1 3:54
4TH & 3
OPP 42
+12
77.3%
Luke Skipper pass complete to Jarion Anderson for 12 yds to the CArk 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
78.2%
Shamari Brooks run for 2 yds to the CArk 28Similar
Q1 3:54
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+2
78.2%
Luke Skipper pass complete to Jarion Anderson for 2 yds to the CArk 26Similar
Q1 3:54
3RD & 6
OPP 26
+5
77.7%
SKIPPER, L. pass incomplete to JOHNSON, K., PENALTY UCA offside defense 5 yards to the UCA21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:54
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+4
77.7%
Shamari Brooks run for 4 yds to the CArk 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+8
78.2%
Shamari Brooks run for 8 yds to the CArk 9Similar
Q1 3:54
2ND & 2
OPP 9
+6
78.2%
Luke Skipper run for 6 yds to the CArk 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
78.2%
Shamari Brooks run for 2 yds to the CArk 1Similar
Q2 14:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
79.9%
Luke Skipper run for 1 yd for a TD (Nathan Walker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 24 yds · 0:0022% → 23%
Q2 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
78.0%
TULSA Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the CArk 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
77.3%
Cedric Battle run for 2 yds to the CArk 42Similar
Q2 14:57
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+3
77.3%
Carlos Blackman run for 3 yds to the CArk 45Similar
Q2 14:57
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+4
77.2%
Carlos Blackman run for 4 yds to the CArk 49Similar
Q2 14:57
4TH & 1
OWN 49
0
77.5%
Taylor Wallace punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jarion Anderson at the Tulsa 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0078% → 77%
Q2 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
77.9%
Luke Skipper pass incomplete to Justin Hobbs, broken up by Robert RochelletSimilar
Q2 12:56
2ND & 10
OWN 7
+7
77.8%
Corey Taylor II run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 14Similar
Q2 12:56
3RD & 3
OWN 14
+2
77.5%
Corey Taylor II run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 16Similar
Q2 12:56
4TH & 1
OWN 16
+8
77.2%
Thomas Bennett punt for 54 yds , Dwayne Smith returns for 8 yds to the CArk 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0024% → 23%
Q2 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
76.5%
Carlos Blackman run for 2 yds to the CArk 40Similar
Q2 11:37
2ND & 8
OWN 40
0
76.3%
Breylin Smith pass incomplete to Jakari DillardSimilar
Q2 11:37
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+1
76.8%
Carlos Blackman run for 1 yd to the CArk 41Similar
Q2 11:37
4TH & 7
OWN 41
0
77.5%
Taylor Wallace punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tulsa 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0078% → 77%
Q2 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
77.6%
Luke Skipper pass incomplete to Keenen JohnsonSimilar
Q2 10:18
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+1
77.5%
Luke Skipper pass complete to Cole Neph for 1 yd to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q2 10:18
3RD & 9
OWN 32
0
76.9%
Luke Skipper pass incomplete to Justin Hobbs, broken up by Juan JacksonSimilar
Q2 10:18
4TH & 9
OWN 32
0
76.5%
Thomas Bennett punt for 68 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0024% → 23%
Q2 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
76.4%
Kierre Crossley run for a loss of 1 yard to the CArk 19Similar
Q2 9:29
2ND & 11
OWN 19
0
76.6%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Lujuan Winningham for no gain to the CArk 19Similar
Q2 9:29
3RD & 11
OWN 19
+5
77.1%
Breylin Smith run for 5 yds to the CArk 24Similar
Q2 9:29
4TH & 6
OWN 24
+4
77.4%
Taylor Wallace punt for 37 yds , Jarion Anderson returns for 4 yds to the Tulsa 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 13TD
9 plays · 57 yds · 2:2779% → 84%
Q2 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
78.6%
Corey Taylor II run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 49Similar
Q2 7:37
2ND & 4
OWN 49
0
78.9%
Corey Taylor II run for no gain to the Tulsa 49Similar
Q2 7:37
3RD & 4
OWN 49
+15
78.4%
Luke Skipper pass complete to Cole Neph for 15 yds to the CArk 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
79.1%
Luke Skipper run for 7 yds to the CArk 29Similar
Q2 7:37
2ND & 3
OPP 29
0
79.5%
Luke Skipper pass incomplete to Keenen JohnsonSimilar
Q2 7:37
3RD & 3
OPP 29
+5
78.9%
Shamari Brooks run for 5 yds to the CArk 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
79.5%
Luke Skipper pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:37
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+23
79.5%
Shamari Brooks run for 23 yds to the CArk 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
84.1%
Shamari Brooks run for 1 yd for a TD (Nathan Walker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 26 yds · 2:2018% → 18%
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
82.3%
Carlos Blackman run for 3 yds to the CArk 28Similar
Q2 5:10
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+15
82.2%
Smith, Breylin pass incomplete to Blackman, Carlo (REVELS III, R.), PENALTY TLS personal foul 15 yards to the UCA43, 1ST DOWN UCA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 0
0
79.8%
Smith, Breylin pass incomplete to Wells, Lester, PENALTY UCA holding off-setting, PENALTY TLS pass interference off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
81.5%
Carlos Blackman run for no gain to the CArk 43Similar
Q2 5:10
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
81.7%
Breylin Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:10
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+8
82.2%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Cedric Battle for 8 yds to the Tulsa 49Similar
Q2 2:50
4TH & 2
OPP 49
0
82.5%
Taylor Wallace punt for 21 yds, downed at the Tulsa 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 15END OF HALF
8 plays · 13 yds · 2:1683% → 84%
Q2 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
82.9%
Shamari Brooks run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 31Similar
Q2 2:39
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+6
82.8%
Luke Skipper pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 6 yds to the Tulsa 37Similar
Q2 2:39
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+4
83.2%
Shamari Brooks run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
83.9%
Luke Skipper run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 47Similar
Q2 2:39
2ND & 4
OWN 47
-7
83.9%
Luke Skipper sacked by Jackie Harvell for a loss of 7 yards to the Tulsa 40 Luke Skipper fumbled, recovered by Tulsa Willie Wright , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 2:39
3RD & 11
OWN 40
+5
82.7%
SKIPPER, L. pass intercepted by Jackson, Juan at the UCA26, Jackson, Juan return to the UCA37 (STOKES, K.), PENALTY UCA offside defense 5 yards to the TLS45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:23
3RD & 6
OWN 45
-4
84.3%
Shamari Brooks run for a loss of 4 yards to the Tulsa 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
82.2%
Dwayne Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the CArk 24Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+4
82.4%
Carlos Blackman run for 4 yds to the CArk 28Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+6
82.8%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Jakari Dillard for 6 yds to the CArk 34Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
82.5%
Taylor Wallace punt for 46 yds, downed at the Tulsa 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 17FUMBLE
2 plays · 55 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q3 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
83.3%
Shamari Brooks run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 21Similar
Q3 12:55
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+41
83.2%
Luke Skipper pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 41 yds Keenen Johnson fumbled, forced by Juan Jackson, recovered by CArk Jackie HarvellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 18TD
18 plays · 75 yds · 6:3018% → 35%
Q3 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
82.2%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Jakari Dillard for 7 yds to the CArk 32Similar
Q3 12:22
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+6
81.0%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Jakari Dillard for 6 yds to the CArk 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
81.3%
Breylin Smith pass incomplete to Jakari DillardSimilar
Q3 12:22
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+22
81.5%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Jakari Dillard for 22 yds to the Tulsa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-2
80.1%
Kierre Crossley run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 42Similar
Q3 12:22
2ND & 12
OPP 42
-1
80.8%
Kierre Crossley run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 43Similar
Q3 12:22
3RD & 13
OPP 43
+8
81.9%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Carlos Blackman for 8 yds to the Tulsa 35Similar
Q3 12:22
4TH & 5
OPP 35
+9
81.5%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Brandon Myers for 9 yds to the Tulsa 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
78.7%
Carlos Blackman run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 22Similar
Q3 12:22
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+13
78.7%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Dwayne Smith for 13 yds to the Tulsa 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
77.2%
Smith, Breylin pass incomplete to Myers, Brandon, PENALTY TLS pass interference 7 yards to the TLS2, 1ST DOWN UCA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
77.2%
Carlos Blackman run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 1Similar
Q3 7:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
77.6%
Carlos Blackman run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 2Similar
Q3 7:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
79.1%
Smith, Breylin pass incomplete to Dillard, Jakari, PENALTY TLS pass interference 0 yards to the TLS2, 1ST DOWN UCA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
77.6%
Carlos Blackman run for no gain to the Tulsa 2Similar
Q3 5:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
64.6%
Breylin Smith run for 2 yds for a TD (Matt Cummins KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 20FUMBLE
2 plays · 10 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q3 5:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
64.6%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Carlos Blackman for 7 yds to the Tulsa 3Similar
Q3 5:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
64.6%
Carlos Blackman run for 2 yds Carlos Blackman fumbled, forced by Myles Mouton, recovered by Tulsa Robert Revels IIISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 21FG
9 plays · 58 yds · 3:5471% → 78%
Q3 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+22
71.2%
Corey Taylor II run for 22 yds to the Tulsa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:19
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+10
73.6%
Luke Skipper pass complete to Cole Neph for 10 yds to the CArk 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:19
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
74.7%
Corey Taylor II run for no gain to the CArk 48Similar
Q3 5:19
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+4
74.4%
Shamari Brooks run for 4 yds to the CArk 44Similar
Q3 5:19
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+14
74.2%
Luke Skipper run for 14 yds to the CArk 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:19
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
75.8%
Shamari Brooks run for 3 yds to the CArk 27Similar
Q3 5:19
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+4
75.8%
Shamari Brooks run for 4 yds to the CArk 23Similar
Q3 5:19
3RD & 3
OPP 23
+1
74.5%
Shamari Brooks run for 1 yd to the CArk 22Similar
Q3 1:25
4TH & 2
OPP 22
+40
77.5%
Nathan Walker 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 1:2525% → 26%
Q3 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
75.2%
Cedric Battle run for 5 yds to the CArk 30Similar
Q3 1:25
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+13
74.2%
Cedric Battle run for 13 yds to the CArk 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
73.1%
Breylin Smith run for 3 yds to the CArk 46Similar
Q3 1:25
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+2
71.9%
Cedric Battle run for 2 yds to the CArk 48Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 48
+1
71.9%
Cedric Battle run for 1 yd to the CArk 49Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 49
0
74.4%
Taylor Wallace punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jarion Anderson at the Tulsa 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 23FUMBLE TD
8 plays · 18 yds · 3:0676% → 51%
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+14
75.9%
Shamari Brooks run for 14 yds to the Tulsa 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
76.5%
Luke Skipper pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 4 yds to the Tulsa 25Similar
Q4 14:14
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+2
76.6%
Shamari Brooks run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q4 14:14
3RD & 4
OWN 27
+4
75.6%
Luke Skipper pass complete to Shamari Brooks for 4 yds to the Tulsa 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
76.9%
Luke Skipper pass complete to Justin Hobbs for 6 yds to the Tulsa 37Similar
Q4 14:14
2ND & 4
OWN 37
-1
78.6%
Shamari Brooks run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 36Similar
Q4 14:14
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+5
76.8%
Luke Skipper pass complete to Jarion Anderson for 5 yds to the Tulsa 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
51.1%
Luke Skipper sacked by Raphael Garner for a loss of 16 yards Luke Skipper fumbled, recovered by CArk Cardell Best , return for 0 yards , return for 20 yds Cardell Best fumbled, recovered by CArk Justin Morris , return for 0 yards for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 24TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:5747% → 78%
Q4 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
47.0%
Shamari Brooks run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q4 11:08
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+26
47.6%
Shamari Brooks run for 26 yds to the CArk 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+25
53.1%
Luke Skipper run for 25 yds to the CArk 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+12
56.0%
Corey Taylor II run for 12 yds to the CArk 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
56.0%
Luke Skipper run for a loss of 1 yard to the CArk 9Similar
Q4 11:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
56.0%
Chad President run for no gain to the CArk 9Similar
Q4 11:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
53.0%
TULSA Penalty, false start (Chris Ivy Jr.) to the CArk 14Similar
Q4 8:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
+14
77.6%
Luke Skipper pass complete to Cole Neph for 14 yds for a TD (Nathan Walker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 26TD
2 plays · 7 yds · 0:2982% → 94%
Q4 8:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
82.0%
Luke Skipper run for 6 yds to the CArk 1Similar
Q4 7:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
94.0%
Shamari Brooks run for 1 yd for a TD (Nathan Walker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CARKDrive 27PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:007% → 8%
Q4 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
92.9%
Breylin Smith pass incomplete to Jakari DillardSimilar
Q4 7:36
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
93.0%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Jakari Dillard for 10 yds to the CArk 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
92.0%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Carlos Blackman for 1 yd to the CArk 36Similar
Q4 7:36
2ND & 9
OWN 36
0
92.0%
Breylin Smith pass incomplete to Jakari Dillard, broken up by Diamon CannonSimilar
Q4 7:36
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+4
92.8%
Breylin Smith pass complete to Cedric Battle for 4 yds to the CArk 40Similar
Q4 7:36
4TH & 5
OWN 40
+10
92.5%
Taylor Wallace punt for 51 yds , Jarion Anderson returns for 10 yds to the 50 yard line CENTRAL ARK Penalty, illegal shift (-5 Yards) to the Tulsa 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 28Uncategorized
13 plays · 62 yds · 1:2794% → 96%
Q4 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
94.2%
Corey Taylor II run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q4 5:39
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+5
94.3%
Corey Taylor II run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:39
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
94.4%
Corey Taylor II run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 35Similar
Q4 4:21
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+7
95.5%
Corey Taylor II run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 42Similar
Q4 4:12
3RD & 2
OWN 42
+9
95.8%
Corey Taylor II run for 9 yds to the CArk 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
96.0%
Shamari Brooks run for 8 yds to the CArk 41Similar
Q4 4:12
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+17
96.1%
Shamari Brooks run for 2 yds to the CArk 39 for a 1ST down CENTRAL ARK Penalty, IH (15 Yards) to the CArk 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
96.2%
Shamari Brooks run for 1 yd to the CArk 23Similar
Q4 4:12
2ND & 9
OPP 23
+4
96.2%
Corey Taylor II run for 4 yds to the CArk 19Similar
Q4 4:12
3RD & 5
OPP 19
+7
96.0%
Keylon Stokes run for 7 yds to the CArk 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-2
96.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the CArk 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:11
Luke Skipper pass complete to Cole Neph for 14 yds for a TD (Nathan Walker KICK)
+24.6
TD · Q3 5:52
Breylin Smith run for 2 yds for a TD (Matt Cummins KICK)
-13
TD · Q4 7:36
Shamari Brooks run for 1 yd for a TD (Nathan Walker KICK)
+12
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com