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ELON

Elon 14 at South Florida 34

USF
2018 · Week 1 · Sep 1, 2018 · Raymond James Stadium
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Win probability · USF
modelUSF aheadELON aheadconfidence bandkey playUSF scoreELON score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 8:47 · Hunter Stephenson punt for 54 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SFla 14
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+46.0+23.00−23.0−46.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 118Pregame prior+25.0Home team on offense+29.0Score differential+26.1Garbage-time factor+9.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.8Blowout margin+12.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:25: Blake Barnett pass complete to Tyre McCants for 16 yds for a TD, (Jake Vivonetto KICK) — USF win probability +2.6 pts (now 96%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:25: Blake Barnett pass complete to Mitchell Wilcox for 14 yds for a TD, (Jake Vivonetto KICK) — USF win probability +2.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:25: Blake Barnett run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jake Vivonetto KICK) — USF win probability +1.6 pts (now 100%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 10:25: Jalen Greene run for 12 yds for a TD, (Skyler Davis KICK) — ELON win probability +2.1 pts (now 2%) (top driver: ELON has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:25: Brelynd Cyphers run for 2 yds for a TD, (Skyler Davis KICK) — ELON win probability +2.1 pts (now 3%) (top driver: ELON has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USF made the numbers' call on 8 of 8ELON made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 8:33ELON 4th & 1 at ELON 26, down 7
    Close callPunted · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.8%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:06USF 4th & 7 at USF 39, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.7%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.7%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:15ELON 4th & 10 at ELON 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.4%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.5%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:16USF 4th & 6 at ELON 16, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.0%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.0%
    81% to make
    Punt
    90.9%−1.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:25ELON 4th & 2 at ELON 31, down 17
    Close callPunted · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.1%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:35ELON 4th & 15 at ELON 33, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.6%−0.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:55USF 4th & 1 at ELON 42, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    97.2%−0.4
    30% to make
    Punt
    97.2%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:25USF 4th & 2 at ELON 2, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    97.5%−0.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    96.2%−1.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:47ELON 4th & 5 at ELON 32, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:23USF 4th & 10 at USF 36, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:07USF 4th & 10 at USF 22, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.6%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.8%
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:12USF 4th & 5 at USF 46, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.3%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.4%
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:55ELON 4th & 1 at ELON 30, down 17
    Close callPunted · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.3%−0.7
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:57USF 4th & 8 at ELON 24, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.7%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.9%
    68% to make
    Punt
    96.6%−1.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:57ELON 4th & 18 at ELON 26, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−0.3
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USF made the numbers' call on 4 of 4ELON made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 8:33USF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:25USF Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:25USF Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:25USF Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 10:25ELON Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 10:25ELON Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ELONDrive 1INT
11 plays · 43 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
95.8%
Malcolm Summers run for 3 yds to the ElonU 33Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+10
95.8%
Malcolm Summers run for 10 yds to the ElonU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
95.8%
Malcolm Summers run for a loss of 5 yards to the ElonU 38Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 38
+22
95.8%
Malcolm Summers run for 22 yds to the SFla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
95.8%
Brelynd Cyphers run for 4 yds to the SFla 36Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 36
0
95.8%
Brelynd Cyphers run for no gain to the SFla 36Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 36
+7
95.8%
Malcolm Summers run for 7 yds to the SFla 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
95.8%
Malcolm Summers run for 2 yds to the SFla 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 27
0
95.8%
Malcolm Summers run for no gain to the SFla 27Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 27
+6
95.8%
Davis Cheek pass intercepted Vincent Jackson return for 6 yds to the SFla 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 2TD
6 plays · 70 yds · 1:1595% → 95%
Q1 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
94.8%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Tyre McCants for 6 yds to the SFla 36Similar
Q1 9:48
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+6
94.8%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Stanley Clerveaux for 6 yds to the SFla 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+14
94.8%
Trevon Sands run for 14 yds to the ElonU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
94.9%
Trevon Sands run for 4 yds to the ElonU 40Similar
Q1 8:33
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+40
95.1%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Randall St. Felix for 40 yds for a TD, (Jake Vivonetto KICK)Similar
Q1 8:33
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+40
95.1%
Blake Barnett pass complete to R St Felix for 40 yds for a TD, (Jake Vivonetto KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ELONDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q1 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-5
94.9%
ELON Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ElonU 12Similar
Q1 8:33
1ST & 15
OWN 12
+2
94.9%
Malcolm Summers run for 2 yds to the ElonU 14Similar
Q1 8:33
2ND & 13
OWN 14
-5
94.9%
ELON Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ElonU 9Similar
Q1 8:33
2ND & 18
OWN 9
+7
94.9%
Davis Cheek pass complete to Cole Taylor for 7 yds to the ElonU 16Similar
Q1 8:33
3RD & 11
OWN 16
+10
95.0%
Davis Cheek pass complete to Kortez Weeks for 10 yds to the ElonU 26Similar
Q1 8:33
4TH & 1
OWN 26
0
95.0%
Hunter Stephenson punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SFla 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
94.7%
Trevon Sands run for 6 yds to the SFla 42Similar
Q1 6:06
2ND & 4
OWN 42
0
94.7%
Blake Barnett pass incomplete to Tyre McCants, broken up by Zavier WilliamsSimilar
Q1 6:06
3RD & 4
OWN 42
-3
94.7%
Blake Barnett sacked by Efrim Borders for a loss of 3 yards to the SFla 39Similar
Q1 6:06
4TH & 7
OWN 39
+1
94.5%
Trent Schneider punt for 49 yds , Kortez Weeks returns for 1 yd to the ElonU 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ELONDrive 5PUNT
14 plays · 34 yds · 5:286% → 6%
Q1 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-1
94.3%
Malcolm Summers run for a loss of 1 yard to the ElonU 12Similar
Q1 4:43
2ND & 11
OWN 12
0
94.4%
Davis Cheek pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:43
3RD & 11
OWN 12
+14
94.4%
Davis Cheek pass complete to Kortez Weeks for 14 yds to the ElonU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
94.3%
De'Sean McNair run for 3 yds to the ElonU 29Similar
Q1 4:43
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+1
94.3%
De'Sean McNair run for 1 yd to the ElonU 30Similar
Q1 4:43
3RD & 6
OWN 30
+7
94.4%
Davis Cheek pass complete to Corey Joyner for 7 yds to the ElonU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
94.2%
Davis Cheek run for no gain to the ElonU 37Similar
Q1 4:43
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
94.3%
Davis Cheek pass incomplete to Kortez Weeks, broken up by Dwayne BoylesSimilar
Q1 4:43
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+10
94.4%
Malcolm Summers run for 10 yds to the ElonU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-1
94.1%
Malcolm Summers run for a loss of 1 yard to the ElonU 46Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 46
+1
93.2%
Brelynd Cyphers run for 1 yd to the ElonU 47Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 47
0
93.3%
Davis Cheek pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:15
4TH & 10
OWN 47
0
93.6%
Hunter Stephenson punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Tyre McCants at the SFla 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 6FG
9 plays · 68 yds · 1:5394% → 94%
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+7
93.5%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Stanley Clerveaux for 7 yds to the SFla 23Similar
Q2 14:09
2ND & 3
OWN 23
-3
93.6%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Tyre McCants for a loss of 3 yards to the SFla 20Similar
Q2 14:09
3RD & 6
OWN 20
+8
93.4%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Ryeshene Bronson for 8 yds to the SFla 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+52
93.6%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Randall St. Felix for 52 yds to the ElonU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
93.9%
Elijah Mack run for 4 yds to the ElonU 16Similar
Q2 14:09
2ND & 6
OPP 16
0
93.9%
Blake Barnett pass incomplete to Tyre McCantsSimilar
Q2 14:09
3RD & 6
OPP 16
0
93.8%
Blake Barnett pass incomplete to Elijah MackSimilar
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+52
93.6%
Blake Barnett pass complete to R St Felix for 52 yds to the ElonU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:16
4TH & 6
OPP 16
+33
93.5%
Jake Vivonetto 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ELONDrive 7INT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q2 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
93.6%
Davis Cheek run for 4 yds to the ElonU 29Similar
Q2 12:16
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-3
93.5%
De'Sean McNair run for a loss of 3 yards to the ElonU 26Similar
Q2 12:16
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+15
93.7%
Davis Cheek pass intercepted Mike Hampton return for 15 yds to the ElonU 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 8TD
2 plays · 25 yds · 0:2494% → 96%
Q2 10:49
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
93.8%
Blake Barnett run for 9 yds to the ElonU 16Similar
Q2 10:25
2ND & 1
OPP 16
+16
96.4%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Tyre McCants for 16 yds for a TD, (Jake Vivonetto KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ELONDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
95.6%
Malcolm Summers run for 1 yd to the ElonU 24Similar
Q2 10:25
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+7
95.6%
Davis Cheek pass complete to Matt Foster for 7 yds to the ElonU 31Similar
Q2 10:25
3RD & 2
OWN 31
0
95.5%
Malcolm Summers run for no gain to the ElonU 31Similar
Q2 10:25
4TH & 2
OWN 31
0
95.6%
Hunter Stephenson punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Tyre McCants at the SFla 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 10TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 2:1198% → 98%
Q2 10:25
3RD & 4
OPP 14
+14
97.6%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Mitchell Wilcox for 14 yds for a TD, (Jake Vivonetto KICK)Similar
Q2 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
97.6%
Trevon Sands run for no gain to the SFla 20Similar
Q2 8:14
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+8
97.6%
Johnny Ford run for 8 yds to the SFla 28Similar
Q2 8:14
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+4
97.5%
Johnny Ford run for 4 yds to the SFla 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-5
97.6%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SFla 27Similar
Q2 8:14
1ST & 15
OWN 27
+3
97.6%
Johnny Ford run for 3 yds to the SFla 30Similar
Q2 8:14
2ND & 12
OWN 30
+50
97.6%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Darnell Salomon for 50 yds to the ElonU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
97.7%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Darnell Salomon for 6 yds to the ElonU 14Similar
Q2 8:14
2ND & 4
OPP 14
0
97.7%
Blake Barnett run for no gain to the ElonU 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ELONDrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 8 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q2 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
97.2%
Brelynd Cyphers run for 2 yds to the ElonU 27Similar
Q2 5:35
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-5
97.2%
Davis Cheek sacked by Nico Sawtelle for a loss of 5 yards to the ElonU 22Similar
Q2 5:35
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+15
97.3%
Davis Cheek sacked by Kirk Livingstone for a loss of 2 yards to the ElonU 38 Davis Cheek fumbled, , return for 0 yards for a 1ST down , return for 0 yards to the ElonU 22 for a 1ST down SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, personal foul (Kirk Livingstone) to the ElonU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-2
97.1%
Brelynd Cyphers run for a loss of 2 yards to the ElonU 36Similar
Q2 5:35
2ND & 12
OWN 36
-10
97.2%
Davis Cheek sacked by Rashawn Yates for a loss of 10 yards to the ElonU 26Similar
Q2 5:35
3RD & 22
OWN 26
-5
97.3%
ELON Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the ElonU 21Similar
Q2 5:35
3RD & 27
OWN 21
+12
97.3%
Brelynd Cyphers run for 12 yds to the ElonU 33Similar
Q2 5:35
4TH & 15
OWN 33
+7
97.3%
Hunter Stephenson punt for 38 yds , Tyre McCants returns for 7 yds to the SFla 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 12END OF HALF
12 plays · 42 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
98.1%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Stanley Clerveaux for 6 yds to the SFla 42Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 4
OWN 42
0
98.1%
Blake Barnett pass incomplete to Mitchell Wilcox, broken up by Tyler CampbellSimilar
Q2 1:55
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+7
98.1%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Mitchell Wilcox for 7 yds to the SFla 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
98.1%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Ryeshene Bronson for 8 yds to the ElonU 43Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 2
OPP 43
-2
98.2%
Trevon Sands run for a loss of 2 yards to the ElonU 45Similar
Q2 1:55
3RD & 4
OPP 45
+3
98.1%
Blake Barnett run for 3 yds to the ElonU 42Similar
Q2 1:55
4TH & 1
OPP 42
-5
98.0%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ElonU 47Similar
Q2 1:55
4TH & 6
OPP 47
+5
98.0%
SCHNEIDER, T punt 37 yards to the ELON10, fair catch by WEEKS,K., PENALTY ELON substitution infraction 5 yards to the ELON42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:55
4TH & 1
OPP 42
+2
98.0%
Elijah Mack run for 2 yds to the ElonU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
98.1%
Blake Barnett pass incomplete to Stanley ClerveauxSimilar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
98.1%
Blake Barnett pass incomplete to Stanley ClerveauxSimilar
Q2 1:55
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+18
98.1%
Blake Barnett run for 18 yds to the ElonU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 13TD
19 plays · 86 yds · 4:3598% → 100%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+8
97.9%
Elijah Mack run for 8 yds to the SFla 22Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 22
-3
97.9%
Elijah Mack run for a loss of 3 yards to the SFla 19Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 19
+11
97.9%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Mitchell Wilcox for 11 yds to the SFla 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
97.9%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Randall St. Felix for 12 yds to the SFla 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
98.0%
Blake Barnett run for 3 yds to the SFla 45Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+13
98.0%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Randall St. Felix for 13 yds to the ElonU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+10
98.0%
Elijah Mack run for 10 yds to the ElonU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
98.0%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Tyre McCants for 6 yds to the ElonU 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 26
+2
98.0%
Elijah Mack run for 2 yds to the ElonU 24Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 24
+13
98.0%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Mitchell Wilcox for 13 yds to the ElonU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+8
98.0%
Elijah Mack run for 8 yds to the ElonU 3Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 3
+2
98.0%
Elijah Mack run for 2 yds to the ElonU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
98.0%
Elijah Mack run for no gain to the ElonU 1Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
98.0%
Elijah Mack run for no gain to the ElonU 1Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
98.0%
Blake Barnett run for a loss of 1 yard to the ElonU 2Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
97.9%
Blake Barnett pass complete to R St Felix for 12 yds to the SFla 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+13
98.0%
Blake Barnett pass complete to R St Felix for 13 yds to the ElonU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:25
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.6%
Blake Barnett run for 2 yds for a TD, (Jake Vivonetto KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ELONDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
99.7%
Malcolm Summers run for 4 yds to the ElonU 19Similar
Q3 8:47
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+8
99.7%
Malcolm Summers run for 8 yds to the ElonU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
99.7%
De'Sean McNair run for 3 yds to the ElonU 30Similar
Q3 8:47
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+2
99.6%
De'Sean McNair run for 2 yds to the ElonU 32Similar
Q3 8:47
3RD & 5
OWN 32
0
99.6%
Davis Cheek pass incomplete to Corey JoynerSimilar
Q3 8:47
4TH & 5
OWN 32
0
99.7%
Hunter Stephenson punt for 54 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SFla 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 15PUNT
16 plays · 22 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-2
99.8%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Tyre McCants for a loss of 2 yards to the SFla 12 SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, illegal procedure ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 6:23
2ND & 12
OWN 12
+8
99.8%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Randall St. Felix for 8 yds to the SFla 20Similar
Q3 6:23
3RD & 4
OWN 20
+4
99.8%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Randall St. Felix for 4 yds to the SFla 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-5
99.8%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, false start (Mitchell Wilcox) to the SFla 19Similar
Q3 6:23
1ST & 15
OWN 19
+14
99.8%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Randall St. Felix for 14 yds to the SFla 33Similar
Q3 6:23
2ND & 1
OWN 33
0
99.8%
Blake Barnett pass incomplete to Randall St. FelixSimilar
Q3 6:23
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+3
99.8%
Blake Barnett pass complete to Tyre McCants for 3 yds to the SFla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
99.8%
Blake Barnett pass incomplete to Randall St. Felix, broken up by Tristen CoxSimilar
Q3 6:23
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
99.8%
Blake Barnett pass incomplete to Tyre McCants, broken up by Tyler CampbellSimilar
Q3 6:23
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
99.8%
Blake Barnett pass incomplete to Mitchell WilcoxSimilar
Q3 6:23
4TH & 10
OWN 36
0
99.8%
Trent Schneider punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ElonU 40Similar
Q3 6:23
2ND & 12
OWN 12
+8
99.8%
Blake Barnett pass complete to R St Felix for 8 yds to the SFla 20Similar
Q3 6:23
3RD & 4
OWN 20
+4
99.8%
Blake Barnett pass complete to R St Felix for 4 yds to the SFla 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:23
1ST & 15
OWN 19
+14
99.8%
Blake Barnett pass complete to R St Felix for 14 yds to the SFla 33Similar
Q3 6:23
2ND & 1
OWN 33
0
99.8%
Blake Barnett pass incomplete to R St FelixSimilar
Q3 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
99.8%
Blake Barnett pass incomplete to R St Felix, broken up by Tristen CoxSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ELONDrive 16TD
6 plays · 60 yds · 6:492% → 2%
Q3 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
97.7%
Jalen Greene run for 12 yds for a TD, (Skyler Davis KICK)Similar
Q3 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+19
98.5%
Jaylan Thomas run for 19 yds to the SFla 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:36
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-2
98.5%
Jalen Greene run for a loss of 2 yards to the SFla 43Similar
Q3 3:36
2ND & 12
OPP 43
+1
98.5%
Jaylan Thomas run for 1 yd to the SFla 42Similar
Q3 3:36
3RD & 11
OPP 42
+15
98.5%
GREENE,J. pass incomplete to JONES,A., PENALTY USF pass interference (HAMPTON, Mike) 15 yards to the USF27, 1ST DOWN ELON, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:36
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+15
98.3%
Jaylan Thomas run for 15 yds to the SFla 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
99.0%
Brett Kean run for no gain to the SFla 22Similar
Q3 1:07
2ND & 10
OWN 22
0
98.9%
Brett Kean pass incomplete to Randall St. FelixSimilar
Q3 1:07
3RD & 10
OWN 22
0
98.9%
Brett Kean pass incomplete to Tyre McCantsSimilar
Q3 1:07
4TH & 10
OWN 22
0
98.9%
Trent Schneider punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ElonU 49Similar
Q3 1:07
2ND & 10
OWN 22
0
98.9%
Brett Kean pass incomplete to R St FelixSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ELONDrive 18TD
6 plays · 51 yds · 4:501% → 3%
Q3 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-1
98.9%
Jalen Greene run for a loss of 1 yard to the ElonU 48Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 48
+11
98.9%
Jaylan Thomas run for 11 yds to the SFla 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+25
98.9%
Jaylan Thomas run for 25 yds to the SFla 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+11
98.8%
Brelynd Cyphers run for 11 yds to the SFla 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
98.8%
Brelynd Cyphers run for 3 yds to the SFla 2Similar
Q4 10:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
96.7%
Brelynd Cyphers run for 2 yds for a TD, (Skyler Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
97.4%
Johnny Ford run for 8 yds to the SFla 35Similar
Q4 13:12
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+6
97.5%
Johnny Ford run for 6 yds to the SFla 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
97.6%
Johnny Ford run for 5 yds to the SFla 46Similar
Q4 13:12
2ND & 5
OWN 46
0
97.6%
Chris Oladokun pass incomplete to Darnell SalomonSimilar
Q4 13:12
3RD & 5
OWN 46
0
97.5%
Chris Oladokun pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:12
4TH & 5
OWN 46
0
97.3%
Trent Schneider punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ELONDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 3:063% → 3%
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+2
97.2%
Jaylan Thomas run for 2 yds to the ElonU 11Similar
Q4 12:01
2ND & 8
OWN 11
+10
97.1%
Jaylan Thomas run for 10 yds to the ElonU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
97.1%
De'Sean McNair run for 4 yds to the ElonU 25Similar
Q4 12:01
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+3
96.9%
De'Sean McNair run for 3 yds to the ElonU 28Similar
Q4 12:01
3RD & 3
OWN 28
+2
96.9%
Jaylan Thomas run for 2 yds to the ElonU 30Similar
Q4 8:55
4TH & 1
OWN 30
+11
97.3%
Hunter Stephenson punt for 47 yds , Johnny Ford returns for 11 yds to the SFla 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 21FG
9 plays · 42 yds · 2:4798% → 99%
Q4 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
97.5%
Brett Kean pass complete to Zion Roland for 9 yds to the SFla 43Similar
Q4 8:44
2ND & 1
OWN 43
+4
97.7%
Johnny Ford run for 4 yds to the SFla 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+13
97.7%
Brett Kean pass complete to Jernard Phillips for 13 yds to the ElonU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:44
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-1
97.7%
Dave Small run for a loss of 1 yard to the ElonU 41Similar
Q4 8:44
2ND & 11
OPP 41
+15
97.7%
Brett Kean pass complete to Jernard Phillips for 15 yds to the ElonU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:44
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
97.7%
Jernard Phillips run for 2 yds to the ElonU 24Similar
Q4 8:44
2ND & 8
OPP 24
0
97.7%
Brett Kean pass incomplete to Jernard PhillipsSimilar
Q4 8:44
3RD & 8
OPP 24
0
97.6%
Brett Kean pass incomplete to Terrence HorneSimilar
Q4 5:57
4TH & 8
OPP 24
+41
99.2%
Jake Vivonetto 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ELONDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · -8 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
99.4%
Jaylan Thomas run for 2 yds to the ElonU 36Similar
Q4 5:57
2ND & 8
OWN 36
-2
99.4%
Jalen Greene run for a loss of 2 yards to the ElonU 34Similar
Q4 5:57
3RD & 10
OWN 34
-3
99.4%
Jalen Greene pass complete to Bryson Daughtry for a loss of 3 yards to the ElonU 31Similar
Q4 5:57
4TH & 13
OWN 31
-5
99.5%
ELON Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the ElonU 26Similar
Q4 5:57
4TH & 18
OWN 26
+19
99.5%
Hunter Stephenson punt for 56 yds , Tyre McCants returns for 19 yds to the SFla 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 23END OF GAME
9 plays · 43 yds · 0:0099% → 100%
Q4 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
99.4%
Chris Oladokun run for 5 yds to the SFla 42Similar
Q4 3:29
2ND & 5
OWN 42
0
99.5%
Chris Oladokun pass incomplete to Zion RolandSimilar
Q4 3:29
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+21
99.5%
Chris Oladokun pass complete to Darnell Salomon for 21 yds to the ElonU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
99.5%
Chris Oladokun pass complete to Terrence Horne for 4 yds to the ElonU 33Similar
Q4 3:29
2ND & 6
OPP 33
-6
99.5%
Chris Oladokun sacked by Ryan Whitehead for a loss of 6 yards to the ElonU 39Similar
Q4 3:29
3RD & 12
OPP 39
+14
99.4%
Chris Oladokun run for 14 yds to the ElonU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
99.5%
Johnny Ford run for 5 yds to the ElonU 20Similar
Q4 3:29
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+5
99.5%
Dave Small run for 5 yds to the ElonU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-5
99.5%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ElonU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 10:25
Blake Barnett pass complete to Tyre McCants for 16 yds for a TD, (Jake Vivonetto KICK)
+2.6
TD · Q3 10:25
Jalen Greene run for 12 yds for a TD, (Skyler Davis KICK)
-2.1
TD · Q4 10:25
Brelynd Cyphers run for 2 yds for a TD, (Skyler Davis KICK)
-2.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com