Try the model
BYU

BYU 16 at Boise State 21

BOIS
2018 · Week 10 · Nov 3, 2018 · Albertsons Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · BOIS
modelBOIS aheadBYU aheadconfidence bandkey playBOIS scoreBYU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:07 · Timeout BOISE ST, clock 00:07
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+30.5+15.30−15.3−30.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:54: Brett Rypien pass complete to A.J. Richardson for 7 yds for a TD, (Haden Hoggarth KICK) — BOIS win probability +3.6 pts (now 84%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:46: Zach Wilson run for 4 yds for a TD (Skyler Southam KICK) — BYU win probability +10.1 pts (now 32%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 1:44: Alexander Mattison run for 3 yds for a TD (Haden Hoggarth KICK) — BOIS win probability +14.5 pts (now 88%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 6:32: Skyler Southam 41 yd FG GOOD — BYU win probability +14.3 pts (now 30%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 6:32: Alexander Mattison run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 30 — BOIS win probability +11.4 pts (now 85%) (top driver: BOIS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BOIS made the numbers' call on 5 of 6BYU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00BYU 4th & 12 at BYU 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.9%−0.2
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:27BOIS 4th & 1 at BYU 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.8%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    79.5%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    79.0%−0.8
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:45BYU 4th & 12 at BOIS 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.0%−0.2
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.1%
    54% to make
    Punt
    19.0%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:09BOIS 4th & 16 at BYU 24, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.3%−1.3
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.6%
    68% to make
    Punt
    80.9%−3.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:08BYU 4th & 9 at BOIS 9, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.9%−0.5
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.3%
    89% to make
    Punt
    11.5%−3.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:58BYU 4th & 26 at BOIS 26, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 16.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.5%−1.0
    6% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.5%
    64% to make
    Punt
    14.7%−1.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:58BOIS 4th & 13 at BOIS 22, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.9%−1.6
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.5%
    average punt
  8. Q4 15:00BOIS 4th & 11 at BYU 34, up 8
    Close callWent for it · 86.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.3%−0.9
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    87.2%
    47% to make
    Punt
    85.9%−1.3
    average punt
  9. Q4 11:07BYU 4th & 3 at BOIS 41, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    11.7%−3.2
    32% to make
    Punt
    12.0%−3.0
    average punt
  10. Q4 6:32BYU 4th & 8 at BOIS 24, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 12.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.4%−1.5
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.9%
    68% to make
    Punt
    4.0%−7.9
    average punt
  11. Q4 6:32BOIS 4th & 10 at BOIS 28, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.7%−3.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.9%
    average punt
  12. Q4 4:42BYU 4th & 17 at BYU 17, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.6%−1.8
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.4%
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:18BOIS 4th & 10 at BOIS 47, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.6%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.0%
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:15BYU 4th & 2 at BOIS 5, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.5%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    9.7%−11.8
    92% to make
    Punt
    9.0%−12.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BOIS made the numbers' call on 3 of 3BYU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 9:27BOIS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:54BOIS Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 9:46BYU Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 1:44BOIS Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BYUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
80.1%
Matt Hadley run for no gain to the BYU 13Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 13
0
80.1%
Zach Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 13
-2
80.1%
Zach Wilson sacked by Scale Igiehon for a loss of 2 yards to the BYU 11Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 12
OWN 11
0
80.1%
Rhett Almond punt for 30 yds, downed at the BYU 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 2TD
8 plays · 41 yds · 4:0480% → 80%
Q1 13:31
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
79.8%
Alexander Mattison run for no gain to the BYU 41Similar
Q1 13:31
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+5
79.8%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Alexander Mattison for 5 yds to the BYU 36Similar
Q1 13:31
3RD & 5
OPP 36
+31
79.8%
Brett Rypien pass complete to CT Thomas for 31 yds to the BYU 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
79.8%
Alexander Mattison run for 4 yds to the BYU 1Similar
Q1 13:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
79.8%
Alexander Mattison run for no gain to the BYU 1Similar
Q1 13:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
79.8%
Khalil Shakir run for no gain to the BYU 1Similar
Q1 9:27
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
80.0%
Alexander Mattison run for 1 yd for a TD, (Haden Hoggarth KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 3MISSED FG
11 plays · 44 yds · 3:4220% → 20%
Q1 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
79.9%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Brayden El-Bakri for 16 yds to the BYU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
79.7%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Dylan Collie for 7 yds to the BYU 48Similar
Q1 9:27
2ND & 3
OWN 48
0
79.5%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete, broken up by Desmond WilliamsSimilar
Q1 9:27
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+9
79.6%
Zach Wilson run for 9 yds to the BoiSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+14
79.5%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Dylan Collie for 14 yds to the BoiSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
79.3%
Matt Hadley run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 28Similar
Q1 9:27
2ND & 9
OPP 28
-8
79.3%
Zach Wilson sacked by Curtis Weaver for a loss of 8 yards to the BoiSt 36Similar
Q1 6:35
3RD & 17
OPP 36
+5
79.8%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Brayden El-Bakri for 5 yds to the BoiSt 31Similar
Q1 5:45
4TH & 12
OPP 31
+48
79.9%
Skyler Southam 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 4TD
12 plays · 69 yds · 4:5180% → 84%
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
80.0%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Akilian Butler for 6 yds to the BoiSt 37Similar
Q1 5:45
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+4
80.3%
Alexander Mattison run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
80.3%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Alexander Mattison for 4 yds to the BoiSt 45Similar
Q1 5:45
2ND & 6
OWN 45
0
80.4%
Brett Rypien pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:45
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+5
80.2%
BYU Penalty, offside defense (Khyiris Tonga) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 5:45
3RD & 1
50
+2
80.3%
Brett Rypien run for 2 yds to the BYU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
80.5%
Alexander Mattison run for 1 yd to the BYU 47Similar
Q1 5:45
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+16
80.5%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Akilian Butler for 16 yds to the BYU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+20
80.5%
Brett Rypien pass complete to A.J. Richardson for 20 yds to the BYU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
80.5%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Chase Blakley for no gain to the BYU 11Similar
Q1 5:45
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+4
80.5%
Alexander Mattison run for 4 yds to the BYU 7Similar
Q1 0:54
3RD & 6
OPP 7
+7
84.2%
Brett Rypien pass complete to A.J. Richardson for 7 yds for a TD, (Haden Hoggarth KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 6MISSED FG
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:3784% → 84%
Q1 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-10
84.4%
MATTISON, Alex rush over left guard for no gain to the BYU18 (POWELL, Riggs), PENALTY BSU holding (HARRINGTON, D.) 10 yards to the BYU28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:46
1ST & 20
OPP 28
-4
84.4%
Brett Rypien sacked by Trajan Pili for a loss of 4 yards to the BYU 32Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 24
OPP 32
+8
84.5%
Brett Rypien pass complete to John Hightower for 8 yds to the BYU 24Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 16
OPP 24
0
84.2%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to John HightowerSimilar
Q2 14:09
4TH & 16
OPP 24
+41
83.9%
Haden Hoggarth 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 7FG
13 plays · 67 yds · 5:0117% → 19%
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
83.4%
Matt Hadley run for 2 yds to the BYU 26Similar
Q2 14:09
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+18
83.5%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Aleva Hifo for 18 yds to the BYU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
83.1%
Zach Wilson run for 9 yds to the BoiSt 47Similar
Q2 14:09
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+9
82.5%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Neil Pau'u for 9 yds to the BoiSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
82.6%
Squally Canada run for 7 yds to the BoiSt 31Similar
Q2 14:09
2ND & 3
OPP 31
+4
82.0%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Gunner Romney for 4 yds to the BoiSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
82.0%
Squally Canada run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 24Similar
Q2 14:09
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+15
82.0%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Talon Shumway for 15 yds to the BoiSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
82.0%
Zach Wilson run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 7Similar
Q2 14:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-2
82.0%
Jaren Hall run for a loss of 2 yards to the BoiSt 9Similar
Q2 9:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
83.4%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Talon ShumwaySimilar
Q2 9:08
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
81.4%
Skyler Southam 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 8INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q2 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+31
82.4%
Brett Rypien pass intercepted Michael Shelton return for 31 yds to the BoiSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 9FG
8 plays · -7 yds · 3:5620% → 17%
Q2 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
79.8%
Squally Canada run for no gain to the BoiSt 19Similar
Q2 8:54
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+5
80.1%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Neil Pau'u for 5 yds to the BoiSt 14Similar
Q2 8:54
3RD & 5
OPP 14
+9
80.3%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Dylan Collie for 9 yds to the BoiSt 5 for a 1ST down BOISE ST Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-9
79.8%
Zach Wilson sacked by Kekaula Kaniho for a loss of 9 yards to the BoiSt 14Similar
Q2 8:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
-11
80.6%
Zach Wilson sacked by Jabril Frazier for a loss of 11 yards to the BoiSt 25Similar
Q2 5:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 25
-1
83.7%
Zach Wilson run for a loss of 1 yard to the BoiSt 26Similar
Q2 4:58
4TH & GOAL
OPP 26
+43
82.7%
Skyler Southam 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 0:0081% → 80%
Q2 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
81.3%
Alexander Mattison run for no gain to the BoiSt 8Similar
Q2 4:58
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+17
81.2%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Alexander Mattison for 17 yds to the BoiSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
81.4%
Alexander Mattison run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 28Similar
Q2 4:58
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-14
81.4%
BOISE ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-14 Yards) to the BoiSt 14Similar
Q2 4:58
2ND & 21
OWN 14
+8
81.3%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Robert Mahone for 8 yds to the BoiSt 22Similar
Q2 4:58
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
80.8%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete, broken up by Corbin KaufusiSimilar
Q2 4:58
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
80.2%
Quinn Skillin punt for 33 yds, downed at the BYU 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 11FUMBLE
12 plays · 14 yds · 1:5119% → 18%
Q2 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+18
81.3%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Gunner Romney for 18 yds to the BoiSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-10
80.1%
HADLEY, Matt rush right for 4 yards to the BSU33 (IGIEHON, Scale;JONES, Tyreque), PENALTY BYU holding (HOGE, Tristen) 10 yards to the BSU47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:55
1ST & 20
OPP 47
+6
81.3%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Akile Davis for 6 yds to the BoiSt 41Similar
Q2 2:55
2ND & 14
OPP 41
0
81.4%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Matt HadleySimilar
Q2 2:55
3RD & 14
OPP 41
+15
82.0%
WILSON, Zach pass incomplete to SHUMWAY, Talon, PENALTY BSU pass interference (HORTON, Tyler) 15 yards to the BSU26, 1ST DOWN BYU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+8
78.9%
Zach Wilson run for 8 yds to the BoiSt 18Similar
Q2 2:55
2ND & 2
OPP 18
+4
78.9%
Squally Canada run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
78.9%
Squally Canada run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 13Similar
Q2 2:55
2ND & 9
OPP 13
0
78.9%
Zach Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:04
3RD & 9
OPP 13
-10
80.7%
WILSON, Zach rush left for no gain to the BSU13 (WHITLOCK, Blake), PENALTY BYU holding (CHRISTENSEN, B.) 10 yards to the BSU23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:04
3RD & 19
OPP 23
-18
82.3%
Team run for a loss of 18 yards to the BoiSt 41 Team fumbled, recovered by BoiSt Jabril FrazierSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 12END OF HALF
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
83.8%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Alexander Mattison for 7 yds to the BoiSt 48Similar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+7
84.2%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Alexander Mattison for 7 yds to the BYU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
84.1%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Akilian ButlerSimilar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 10
OPP 45
-15
84.0%
RYPIEN, Brett pass complete to MODSTER, Sean for 17 yards to the BYU28 (MANDELL, D.), PENALTY BSU personal foul (CLEVELAND, Ezra) 15 yards to the BSU40, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 13FUMBLE
8 plays · 33 yds · 0:0083% → 84%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
82.8%
Alexander Mattison run for 9 yds to the BoiSt 44Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+4
84.0%
Alexander Mattison run for 4 yds to the BoiSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
83.9%
Alexander Mattison run for 7 yds to the BYU 45Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+2
84.1%
Robert Mahone run for 2 yds to the BYU 43Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+9
83.5%
Robert Mahone run for 9 yds to the BYU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
84.2%
Robert Mahone run for 2 yds to the BYU 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 32
-3
84.2%
Brett Rypien run for a loss of 3 yards to the BYU 32 Brett Rypien fumbled, recovered by BYU Rhett SandlinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 14TD
5 plays · 68 yds · 2:0019% → 32%
Q3 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+16
81.0%
Matt Hadley run for 16 yds to the BYU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+42
79.7%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Talon Shumway for 42 yds to the BoiSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
77.8%
Matt Hadley run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 5Similar
Q3 11:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
77.8%
Matt Hadley run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 4Similar
Q3 9:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
67.8%
Zach Wilson run for 4 yds for a TD (Skyler Southam KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 15TD
19 plays · 79 yds · 8:0272% → 88%
Q3 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
71.8%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Sean Modster for 9 yds to the BoiSt 30Similar
Q3 9:46
2ND & 1
OWN 30
0
73.3%
Alexander Mattison run for no gain to the BoiSt 30Similar
Q3 9:46
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+2
71.9%
Alexander Mattison run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
72.1%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to John HightowerSimilar
Q3 9:46
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+3
71.8%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Robert Mahone for 3 yds to the BoiSt 35Similar
Q3 9:46
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+17
71.3%
Brett Rypien pass complete to A.J. Richardson for 17 yds to the BYU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:46
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+8
74.8%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 8 yds to the BYU 40Similar
Q3 9:46
2ND & 2
OPP 40
+1
74.9%
Andrew Van Buren run for 1 yd to the BYU 39Similar
Q3 9:46
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+2
74.4%
Brett Rypien run for 2 yds to the BYU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:46
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
74.9%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Alexander MattisonSimilar
Q3 9:46
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+7
74.7%
Robert Mahone run for 7 yds to the BYU 30Similar
Q3 9:46
3RD & 3
OPP 30
+10
74.5%
Brett Rypien pass complete to CT Thomas for 10 yds to the BYU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:46
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+9
75.6%
Alexander Mattison run for 9 yds to the BYU 11Similar
Q3 9:46
2ND & 1
OPP 11
+3
75.6%
Alexander Mattison run for 3 yds to the BYU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
75.6%
Alexander Mattison run for 2 yds to the BYU 6Similar
Q3 1:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
73.8%
BYU Penalty, substitution infraction (3 Yards) to the BYU 3Similar
Q3 1:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
88.3%
Alexander Mattison run for 3 yds for a TD (Haden Hoggarth KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 16FUMBLE
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:0016% → 18%
Q3 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
84.5%
Dylan Collie run for 18 yds to the BYU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+17
83.2%
Zach Wilson run for 17 yds to the BoiSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+37
81.6%
Neil Pau'u pass complete to Matt Bushman for 37 yds Matt Bushman fumbled, forced by Tyler Horton, recovered by BoiSt Tyler HortonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 17DOWNS
12 plays · 46 yds · 0:3586% → 86%
Q3 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
86.2%
Alexander Mattison run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 22Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+9
86.0%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Sean Modster for 9 yds to the BoiSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
86.6%
Brett Rypien pass complete to A.J. Richardson for 9 yds to the BoiSt 40Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+2
87.8%
Alexander Mattison run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
87.9%
Alexander Mattison run for 6 yds to the BoiSt 48Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+4
88.0%
Robert Mahone run for 4 yds to the BYU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
88.3%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Robert Mahone for 6 yds to the BYU 42Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+9
88.3%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Khalil Shakir for 9 yds to the BYU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
88.5%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Sean Modster, broken up by Uriah LeiatauaSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
88.4%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Sean ModsterSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 33
-1
87.5%
Brett Rypien sacked by Corbin Kaufusi for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 34Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 11
OPP 34
0
86.0%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Sean ModsterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 18FG
16 plays · 42 yds · 4:3515% → 30%
Q4 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
84.7%
Zach Wilson run for 5 yds to the BYU 39Similar
Q4 11:07
2ND & 5
OWN 39
-10
83.2%
PAU'U, Neil pass incomplete to CANADA, Squally, PENALTY BYU holding (HOGE, Tristen) 10 yards to the BYU29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:07
2ND & 15
OWN 29
+23
86.1%
Zach Wilson run for 23 yds to the BOISEST 48 for a 1ST down BOISE ST Penalty, ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:07
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
82.3%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Dallin Holker for 7 yds to the BoiSt 41Similar
Q4 11:07
2ND & 3
OPP 41
-5
81.7%
BYU Penalty, false start (Keanu Saleapaga) to the BoiSt 46Similar
Q4 11:07
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+5
82.4%
Matt Hadley run for 5 yds to the BoiSt 41Similar
Q4 11:07
3RD & 3
OPP 41
0
82.6%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Dylan CollieSimilar
Q4 11:07
4TH & 3
OPP 41
+5
83.8%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Talon Shumway for 5 yds to the BoiSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:07
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
82.3%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Neil Pau'uSimilar
Q4 11:07
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
82.4%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Dylan CollieSimilar
Q4 11:07
3RD & 10
OPP 36
+10
83.4%
WILSON, Zach pass incomplete to SHUMWAY, Talon, PENALTY BSU holding (HORTON, Tyler) 10 yards to the BSU26, 1ST DOWN BYU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:07
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-5
80.1%
BYU Penalty, false start (Keanu Saleapaga) to the BoiSt 31Similar
Q4 11:07
1ST & 15
OPP 31
-9
81.8%
Zach Wilson sacked by Curtis Weaver for a loss of 9 yards to the BoiSt 40Similar
Q4 11:07
2ND & 24
OPP 40
+6
83.8%
Matt Hadley run for 6 yds to the BoiSt 34Similar
Q4 11:07
3RD & 18
OPP 34
+10
84.5%
Zach Wilson run for 10 yds to the BoiSt 24Similar
Q4 6:32
4TH & 8
OPP 24
+41
70.3%
Skyler Southam 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0085% → 83%
Q4 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
84.7%
Alexander Mattison run for 2 yds to the BoiSt 30Similar
Q4 6:32
2ND & 8
OWN 30
-2
84.5%
Brett Rypien pass complete to Khalil Shakir for a loss of 2 yards to the BoiSt 28Similar
Q4 6:32
3RD & 10
OWN 28
0
83.3%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to A.J. Richardson, broken up by Austin LeeSimilar
Q4 6:32
4TH & 10
OWN 28
+11
82.6%
Quinn Skillin punt for 49 yds , Michael Shelton returns for 11 yds to the BYU 39 BYU Penalty, Offensive holding (Isaiah Armstrong) to the BYU 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 0:0026% → 22%
Q4 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
74.4%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Neil Pau'u for 5 yds to the BYU 29Similar
Q4 4:42
2ND & 5
OWN 29
-12
72.6%
Zach Wilson sacked by Tyson Maeva for a loss of 12 yards to the BYU 17Similar
Q4 4:42
3RD & 17
OWN 17
0
76.8%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Dylan Collie BYU Penalty, face mask (0 yards) ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 4:42
4TH & 17
OWN 17
0
77.7%
Rhett Almond punt for 47 yds, downed at the BoiSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BOISDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 1:0188% → 91%
Q4 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
88.4%
Alexander Mattison run for 11 yds to the BoiSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
89.4%
Alexander Mattison run for 1 yd to the BoiSt 48Similar
Q4 2:49
2ND & 9
OWN 48
-10
90.8%
MATTISON, Alex rush left for 3 yards to the BYU49 (LEE, Austin;KAUFUSI, Isaiah), PENALTY BSU holding (BLAKLEY, Chase) 10 yards to the BSU38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:49
2ND & 19
OWN 38
+9
90.1%
Alexander Mattison run for 9 yds to the BoiSt 47Similar
Q4 2:18
3RD & 10
OWN 47
0
92.1%
Brett Rypien pass incomplete to Sean ModsterSimilar
Q4 2:18
4TH & 10
OWN 47
0
91.4%
Quinn Skillin punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Michael Shelton at the BYU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 22Uncategorized
10 plays · 81 yds · 1:5013% → 23%
Q4 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+59
87.1%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Matt Hadley for 59 yds to the BoiSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
78.3%
Matt Hadley run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 21Similar
Q4 2:05
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+8
78.3%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Dylan Collie for 8 yds to the BoiSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+8
78.3%
Lopini Katoa run for 8 yds to the BoiSt 5Similar
Q4 2:05
2ND & 2
OPP 5
0
78.3%
Matt Hadley run for no gain to the BoiSt 5Similar
Q4 2:05
3RD & 2
OPP 5
0
80.5%
Matt Hadley run for no gain to the BoiSt 5Similar
Q4 0:15
4TH & 2
OPP 5
+3
82.0%
Zach Wilson run for 3 yds to the BoiSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
76.8%
Team pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+28.9
TD · Q3 1:44
Alexander Mattison run for 3 yds for a TD (Haden Hoggarth KICK)
+14.5
FG · Q4 6:32
Skyler Southam 41 yd FG GOOD
-14.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com