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NIU

Northern Illinois 7 at BYU 6

BYU
2018 · Week 9 · Oct 27, 2018 · LaVell Edwards Stadium
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Win probability · BYU
modelBYU aheadNIU aheadconfidence bandkey playBYU scoreNIU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 15:00 · Rhett Almond punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Cole Tucker at the NoIll 45
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
+29.0+14.50−14.5−29.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 126Pregame prior+5.1Home team on offense−3.2Score differential−1.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.6Garbage-time factor−1.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 11:19: Marcus Childers run for 1 yd for a TD (Andrew Gantz KICK) — NIU win probability +15.3 pts (now 51%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q4 2:53: Tre Harbison run for 2 yds to the NoIll 22 — NIU win probability +14.5 pts (now 63%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  3. INT · Q4 1:47: Zach Wilson pass intercepted Mykelti Williams return for 4 yds to the BYU 48 — BYU win probability +11.0 pts (now 46%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 1:39: TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the NoIll 49 — NIU win probability +22.7 pts (now 77%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:03: Timeout NORTHERNIL, clock 00:03 — NIU win probability +16.2 pts (now 92%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BYU made the numbers' call on 9 of 12NIU made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
  1. Q1 15:00BYU 4th & 2 at BYU 47, tied
    Close callPunted · 68.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.1%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:32NIU 4th & 9 at BYU 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.2%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:36BYU 4th & 4 at NIU 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    67.6%−0.2
    32% to make
    Punt
    67.6%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:08BYU 4th & 6 at NIU 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.7%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.8%
    79% to make
    Punt
    65.1%−1.7
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:03NIU 4th & 4 at NIU 30, down 3
    Close callPunted · 31.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.6%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:42BYU 4th & 9 at BYU 30, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.2%−0.4
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 15:00NIU 4th & 9 at NIU 27, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.5%−0.6
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 13:47BYU 4th & 7 at NIU 35, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.4%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    67.2%−0.2
    45% to make
    Punt
    66.9%−0.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 11:27NIU 4th & 6 at BYU 48, down 3
    Close callPunted · 33.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 9:26BYU 4th & 5 at NIU 44, up 3
    Close callPunted · 67.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.2%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    66.2%−1.0
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    67.0%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:55NIU 4th & 5 at BYU 24, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.8%−0.9
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.7%
    68% to make
    Punt
    29.3%−5.3
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:48BYU 4th & 4 at BYU 30, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.1%−1.0
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.1%
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:19BYU 4th & 14 at BYU 45, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.5%−3.0
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.5%
    average punt
  14. Q3 8:48NIU 4th & 7 at NIU 4, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.7%−2.9
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.6%
    average punt
  15. Q3 3:31BYU 4th & 5 at NIU 5, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.7%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.9%
    92% to make
    Punt
    35.4%−12.6
    average punt
  16. Q3 3:31NIU 4th & 2 at NIU 33, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.3%−0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.4%
    average punt
  17. Q4 15:00BYU 4th & 17 at BYU 17, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.6%−6.7
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.3%
    average punt
  18. Q4 14:12NIU 4th & 12 at NIU 43, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.8%−4.6
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.5%
    average punt
  19. Q4 9:27BYU 4th & 15 at NIU 34, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.3%−4.8
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.1%
    47% to make
    Punt
    47.3%−3.8
    average punt
  20. Q4 9:27NIU 4th & 10 at NIU 46, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.7%−3.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.2%
    average punt
  21. Q4 6:24BYU 4th & 4 at BYU 46, down 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.0 ptsPunted · 51.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.7%−3.0
    average punt
  22. Q4 1:58NIU 4th & 15 at NIU 15, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.7%−17.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.0%
    average punt
  23. Q4 0:03NIU 4th & 26 at NIU 36, up 1
    Numbers favored punt by 10.4 ptsWent for it · 86.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.9%−10.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    87.3%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NIU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q3 11:19NIU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BYUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
70.4%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Talon Shumway for 3 yds to the BYU 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 42
0
70.4%
Matt Hadley run for no gain to the BYU 42Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 42
+5
70.4%
Zach Wilson run for 5 yds to the BYU 47Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 47
0
70.4%
Rhett Almond punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Cole Tucker at the NoIll 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 35 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q1 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
70.0%
Tre Harbison run for 5 yds to the NoIll 22Similar
Q1 12:32
2ND & 5
OWN 22
+29
69.9%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Jauan Wesley for 29 yds to the BYU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
69.7%
Jordan Nettles run for 7 yds to the BYU 42Similar
Q1 12:32
2ND & 3
OPP 42
0
69.7%
Jordan Nettles run for no gain to the BYU 42Similar
Q1 12:32
3RD & 3
OPP 42
-1
69.8%
Marcus Childers run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 43Similar
Q1 12:32
4TH & 4
OPP 43
-5
69.9%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the BYU 48Similar
Q1 12:32
4TH & 9
OPP 48
0
70.0%
Matt Ference punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BYU 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 3FG
15 plays · 72 yds · 6:2870% → 70%
Q1 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+11
69.5%
Matt Hadley run for 11 yds to the BYU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
69.6%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the BYU 26Similar
Q1 9:36
1ST & 5
OWN 26
+7
69.7%
Aleva Hifo run for 7 yds to the BYU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
69.6%
Riley Burt run for 5 yds to the BYU 38Similar
Q1 9:36
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+15
69.9%
WILSON, Zach pass incomplete to HIFO, Aleva, PENALTY NIU pass interference 15 yards to the NIU47, 1ST DOWN BYU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
70.1%
Zach Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:36
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+6
70.0%
Matt Hadley run for 6 yds to the NoIll 41Similar
Q1 9:36
3RD & 4
OPP 41
0
70.0%
Zach Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:36
4TH & 4
OPP 41
+7
69.8%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Micah Simon for 7 yds to the NoIll 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
70.2%
Squally Canada run for 1 yd to the NoIll 33Similar
Q1 9:36
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+11
70.2%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Dallin Holker for 11 yds to the NoIll 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
70.3%
Matt Hadley run for 1 yd to the NoIll 21Similar
Q1 9:36
2ND & 9
OPP 21
+3
70.3%
Aleva Hifo run for 3 yds to the NoIll 18Similar
Q1 9:36
3RD & 6
OPP 18
0
70.1%
Zach Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:08
4TH & 6
OPP 18
+35
69.7%
Skyler Southam 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q1 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
69.7%
Marcus Childers run for 2 yds to the NoIll 26Similar
Q1 3:03
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+4
69.7%
Marcus Jones run for 4 yds to the NoIll 30Similar
Q1 3:03
3RD & 4
OWN 30
0
69.7%
Marcus Childers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:03
4TH & 4
OWN 30
+6
70.3%
Matt Ference punt for 47 yds , Michael Shelton returns for 6 yds to the BYU 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0069% → 68%
Q1 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
69.1%
Zach Wilson run for 5 yds to the BYU 34Similar
Q1 1:42
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+1
69.5%
Lopini Katoa run for 1 yd to the BYU 35Similar
Q1 1:42
3RD & 4
OWN 35
0
68.9%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Dax Milne, broken up by Andrew GregorySimilar
Q1 1:42
4TH & 4
OWN 35
-5
68.5%
BYU Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the BYU 30Similar
Q1 1:42
4TH & 9
OWN 30
+3
68.1%
Rhett Almond punt for 47 yds , Cole Tucker returns for 3 yds to the NoIll 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:3631% → 30%
Q1 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
69.1%
Anthony Thompson run for 6 yds to the NoIll 32Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 32
0
68.5%
Anthony Thompson run for no gain to the NoIll 32Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 32
-5
69.1%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NoIll 27Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 27
0
69.6%
Marcus Childers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 27
0
70.0%
Matt Ference punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BYU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 7DOWNS
5 plays · 34 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q2 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+28
68.8%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Matt Bushman for 28 yds to the NoIll 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:47
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
70.2%
Squally Canada run for no gain to the NoIll 38Similar
Q2 13:47
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+2
70.1%
Riley Burt run for 2 yds to the NoIll 36Similar
Q2 13:47
3RD & 8
OPP 36
+1
69.7%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Aleva Hifo for 1 yd to the NoIll 35Similar
Q2 13:47
4TH & 7
OPP 35
+3
68.8%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Lopini Katoa for 3 yds to the NoIll 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q2 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+16
68.4%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Jauan Wesley for 16 yds to the NoIll 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-2
67.2%
Marcus Childers sacked by Khyiris Tonga and Corbin Kaufusi for a loss of 2 yards to the NoIll 46Similar
Q2 11:27
2ND & 12
OWN 46
0
68.0%
Marcus Childers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:27
3RD & 12
OWN 46
+11
68.6%
Marcus Childers run for 11 yds to the BYU 43Similar
Q2 11:27
4TH & 1
OPP 43
-5
68.0%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the BYU 48Similar
Q2 11:27
4TH & 6
OPP 48
0
68.4%
Matt Ference punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 36 yds · 0:0068% → 69%
Q2 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
68.3%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Matt Bushman for 16 yds to the BYU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
68.9%
Matt Hadley run for 2 yds to the BYU 38Similar
Q2 9:26
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+1
69.0%
Matt Hadley run for 1 yd to the BYU 39Similar
Q2 9:26
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+12
68.2%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Dallin Holker for 12 yds to the NoIll 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-4
70.1%
Zach Wilson sacked by Antonio Jones-Davis for a loss of 4 yards to the BYU 47Similar
Q2 9:26
2ND & 14
OWN 47
+5
68.8%
Zach Wilson run for 5 yds to the NoIll 48Similar
Q2 9:26
3RD & 9
OPP 48
+4
69.2%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Gunner Romney for 4 yds to the NoIll 44Similar
Q2 9:26
4TH & 5
OPP 44
0
68.7%
Rhett Almond punt for 28 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 10MISSED FG
13 plays · 60 yds · 3:4932% → 33%
Q2 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
68.2%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Marcus Jones for 2 yds to the NoIll 18Similar
Q2 4:44
2ND & 8
OWN 18
+14
68.4%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Jauan Wesley for 14 yds to the NoIll 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
67.7%
Marcus Jones run for 7 yds to the NoIll 39Similar
Q2 4:44
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+2
66.4%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Spencer Tears for 2 yds to the NoIll 41Similar
Q2 3:02
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+2
67.0%
Tre Harbison run for 2 yds to the NoIll 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
67.0%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Spencer Tears for 6 yds to the NoIll 49Similar
Q2 3:02
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+7
66.6%
Marcus Childers run for 7 yds to the BYU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+15
66.3%
CHILDERS, Marcu pass incomplete to WESLEY, Jauan, PENALTY BYU pass interference 15 yards to the BYU29, 1ST DOWN NIU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
65.4%
Jordan Nettles run for 4 yds to the BYU 25Similar
Q2 3:02
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+1
65.4%
Marcus Childers run for 1 yd to the BYU 24Similar
Q2 3:02
3RD & 5
OPP 24
0
66.4%
Marcus Childers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:55
4TH & 5
OPP 24
+41
67.0%
Andrew Gantz 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0769% → 66%
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
69.1%
Matt Hadley run for 3 yds to the BYU 27Similar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+3
67.9%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Aleva Hifo for 3 yds to the BYU 30Similar
Q2 0:48
3RD & 4
OWN 30
0
67.2%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Aleva Hifo, broken up by Mykelti WilliamsSimilar
Q2 0:48
4TH & 4
OWN 30
0
66.3%
Rhett Almond punt for 57 yds, downed at the NoIll 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-2
68.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoIll 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 13TD
12 plays · 65 yds · 3:4133% → 51%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
67.1%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Jauan WesleySimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+7
67.5%
Tre Harbison run for 7 yds to the NoIll 42Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+7
65.6%
Marcus Childers pass complete to D.J. Brown for 7 yds to the NoIll 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+26
65.0%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Spencer Tears for 26 yds to the BYU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
63.5%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to D.J. BrownSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+9
63.9%
Tre Harbison run for 9 yds to the BYU 16Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 16
+5
64.6%
Tre Harbison run for 5 yds to the BYU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
63.5%
Tre Harbison run for 6 yds to the BYU 5Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 5
+2
63.5%
Tre Harbison run for 2 yds to the BYU 3Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 3
+2
64.7%
CHILDERS, Marcu pass incomplete, PENALTY BYU holding 2 yards to the BYU1, 1ST DOWN NIU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
49.4%
Marcus Childers run for 1 yd for a TD (Andrew Gantz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:0055% → 53%
Q3 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
55.0%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Gunner Romney for 9 yds to the BYU 34Similar
Q3 11:19
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+15
57.5%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the BYU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-1
58.4%
Gunner Romney run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 48Similar
Q3 11:19
2ND & 11
OWN 48
-8
56.7%
Zach Wilson sacked by Josh Corcoran for a loss of 8 yards to the BYU 40Similar
Q3 11:19
3RD & 19
OWN 40
+5
54.2%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Matt Hadley for 5 yds to the BYU 45Similar
Q3 11:19
4TH & 14
OWN 45
0
53.1%
Rhett Almond punt for 54 yds, downed at the NoIll 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0047% → 44%
Q3 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
53.3%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Spencer TearsSimilar
Q3 8:48
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+3
53.6%
Tre Harbison run for 3 yds to the NoIll 4Similar
Q3 8:48
3RD & 7
OWN 4
0
54.8%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Spencer TearsSimilar
Q3 8:48
4TH & 7
OWN 4
+6
56.0%
Matt Ference punt for 49 yds , Michael Shelton returns for 6 yds to the BYU 10 BYU Penalty, illegal block (15 Yards) to the BYU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 16FG
11 plays · 57 yds · 4:1053% → 59%
Q3 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
53.4%
Squally Canada run for 3 yds to the BYU 41Similar
Q3 7:41
2ND & 7
OWN 41
0
55.1%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Micah SimonSimilar
Q3 7:41
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+42
52.3%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Talon Shumway for 42 yds to the NoIll 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+7
58.5%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Talon Shumway for 7 yds to the NoIll 10Similar
Q3 7:41
2ND & 3
OPP 10
+5
58.5%
Zach Wilson run for 5 yds to the NoIll 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
58.5%
BYU Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NoIll 10Similar
Q3 7:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-5
58.5%
BYU Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NoIll 15Similar
Q3 7:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 15
0
58.3%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Squally CanadaSimilar
Q3 7:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 15
+11
57.6%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Neil Pau'u for 11 yds to the NoIll 4Similar
Q3 7:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
56.2%
Brady Christensen run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 5Similar
Q3 3:31
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
58.7%
Skyler Southam 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0045% → 44%
Q3 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
54.9%
Tre Harbison run for 6 yds to the NoIll 31Similar
Q3 3:31
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
53.2%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Ty Harmston, broken up by Merrill TaliauliSimilar
Q3 3:31
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+2
55.0%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Ty Harmston for 2 yds to the NoIll 33Similar
Q3 3:31
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
56.0%
Matt Ference punt for 55 yds , Michael Shelton returns for no gain to the BYU 5 Michael Shelton fumbled, recovered by BYU Michael SheltonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 2:0855% → 50%
Q3 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+4
55.3%
Squally Canada run for 4 yds to the BYU 9Similar
Q3 2:08
2ND & 6
OWN 9
0
55.1%
Squally Canada run for no gain to the BYU 9Similar
Q3 2:08
3RD & 6
OWN 9
+15
53.3%
WILSON, Zach sacked for loss of 4 yards to the BYU5 (LORBECK, Matt), fumble by WILSON, Zach recovered by BYU Team at BYU5, PENALTY NIU face mask 15 yards to the BYU24, 1ST DOWN BYU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-5
56.1%
Zach Wilson sacked by Jalen McKie for a loss of 5 yards to the BYU 19Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 19
0
53.2%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Matt BushmanSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 19
-2
51.3%
Zach Wilson sacked by Matt Lorbeck for a loss of 2 yards to the BYU 17Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 17
OWN 17
0
50.2%
Rhett Almond punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Cole Tucker at the NoIll 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0051% → 46%
Q4 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
48.7%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Spencer TearsSimilar
Q4 14:12
2ND & 10
OWN 45
-2
49.4%
D.J. Brown run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoIll 43Similar
Q4 14:12
3RD & 12
OWN 43
0
51.9%
Marcus Childers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:12
4TH & 12
OWN 43
0
54.2%
Matt Ference punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Michael Shelton at the BYU 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 20MISSED FG
10 plays · 45 yds · 3:5453% → 49%
Q4 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
53.0%
Squally Canada run for 1 yd to the BYU 22Similar
Q4 13:21
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+14
52.7%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Micah Simon for 14 yds to the BYU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+13
54.7%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Akile Davis for 13 yds to the BYU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
58.0%
Squally Canada run for 8 yds to the NoIll 43Similar
Q4 13:21
2ND & 2
OPP 43
+1
58.9%
Squally Canada run for 1 yd to the NoIll 42Similar
Q4 13:21
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+13
58.1%
Matt Hadley run for 13 yds to the NoIll 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
60.6%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Neil Pau'uSimilar
Q4 13:21
2ND & 10
OPP 29
-1
60.4%
Zach Wilson run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 30Similar
Q4 13:21
3RD & 11
OPP 30
-4
57.3%
Zach Wilson sacked by Josh Corcoran for a loss of 4 yards to the NoIll 34Similar
Q4 9:27
4TH & 15
OPP 34
+51
49.0%
Skyler Southam 51 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 0:0053% → 49%
Q4 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
47.0%
Tre Harbison run for 7 yds to the NoIll 41Similar
Q4 9:27
2ND & 3
OWN 41
+5
44.4%
Marcus Childers run for 5 yds to the NoIll 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-2
44.3%
Jordan Nettles run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoIll 44Similar
Q4 9:27
2ND & 12
OWN 44
+3
46.4%
Marcus Childers run for 3 yds to the NoIll 47Similar
Q4 9:27
3RD & 9
OWN 47
+4
46.2%
Marcus Childers run for 4 yds to the BYU 49Similar
Q4 9:27
4TH & 5
OPP 49
-5
47.5%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the NoIll 46Similar
Q4 9:27
4TH & 10
OWN 46
0
50.6%
Matt Ference punt for 53 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BYU 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 22PUNT
10 plays · 45 yds · 0:0049% → 51%
Q4 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+6
49.0%
Squally Canada run for 6 yds to the BYU 7Similar
Q4 6:24
2ND & 4
OWN 7
+8
48.4%
Squally Canada run for 8 yds to the BYU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
49.6%
Matt Hadley run for 1 yd to the BYU 16Similar
Q4 6:24
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+5
49.0%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the BYU 21Similar
Q4 6:24
2ND & 4
OWN 21
+19
50.5%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Matt Bushman for 19 yds to the BYU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
54.7%
BYU Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the BYU 35Similar
Q4 6:24
1ST & 15
OWN 35
0
49.9%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Aleva HifoSimilar
Q4 6:24
2ND & 15
OWN 35
0
49.3%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Matt HadleySimilar
Q4 6:24
3RD & 15
OWN 35
+11
46.9%
Malik Moore run for 11 yds to the BYU 46Similar
Q4 6:24
4TH & 4
OWN 46
0
51.4%
Rhett Almond punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Cole Tucker at the NoIll 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 0:5563% → 65%
Q4 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
36.9%
Tre Harbison run for 2 yds to the NoIll 22Similar
Q4 2:53
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+2
37.2%
Marcus Childers run for 2 yds to the NoIll 24Similar
Q4 2:04
3RD & 6
OWN 24
-9
35.4%
Marcus Childers sacked by Sione Takitaki for a loss of 9 yards to the NoIll 15Similar
Q4 1:58
4TH & 15
OWN 15
+4
34.6%
Matt Ference punt for 56 yds , Michael Shelton returns for 4 yds to the BYU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 24INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0046% → 46%
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
45.5%
Zach Wilson pass intercepted Mykelti Williams return for 4 yds to the BYU 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 25DOWNS
8 plays · -5 yds · 1:3677% → 92%
Q4 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-3
22.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the NoIll 49Similar
Q4 1:36
2ND & 13
OWN 49
-3
24.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the NoIll 46Similar
Q4 0:49
3RD & 16
OWN 46
-5
22.1%
Marcus Childers run for a loss of 5 yards to the NoIll 41Similar
Q4 0:49
4TH & 21
OWN 41
-5
24.7%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the NoIll 36Similar
Q4 0:03
4TH & 26
OWN 36
+11
8.4%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Jauan Wesley for 11 yds to the NoIll 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q4 1:39
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the NoIll 49
-22.7
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:03
Timeout NORTHERNIL, clock 00:03
-16.2
TD · Q3 11:19
Marcus Childers run for 1 yd for a TD (Andrew Gantz KICK)
-15.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com