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USU

Utah State 45 at BYU 20

BYU
2018 · Week 6 · Oct 5, 2018 · LaVell Edwards Stadium
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Win probability · BYU
modelBYU aheadUSU aheadconfidence bandkey playBYU scoreUSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 8:27 · Danny Jones punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jordan Nathan at the UthSt 18
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+56.0+28.00−28.0−56.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 108Home team on offense−28.1Score differential−15.2Garbage-time factor−6.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.3Time remaining+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 7:35: Tanner Mangum pass intercepted for a TD Tipa Galeai return for 56 yds for a TD, (Dominik Eberle KICK) — USU win probability +3.0 pts (now 51%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 1:50: Jordan Love pass complete to Gerold Bright for 2 yds for a TD, (Dominik Eberle KICK) — USU win probability +3.5 pts (now 58%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 12:23: Jordan Love pass complete to Ron'quavion Tarver for 6 yds for a TD, (Dominik Eberle KICK) — USU win probability +3.0 pts (now 64%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 4:28: Tanner Mangum pass complete to Lopini Katoa for 5 yds for a TD, (Skyler Southam KICK) — BYU win probability +8.2 pts (now 37%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 10:35: Jordan Love pass complete to Jalen Greene for 6 yds for a TD, (Dominik Eberle KICK) — USU win probability +11.4 pts (now 90%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BYU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8USU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 12:30BYU 4th & 5 at BYU 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.4%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:06BYU 4th & 5 at BYU 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.4%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:08USU 4th & 5 at USU 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.8%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:35BYU 4th & 1 at USU 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    50.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    50.0%−0.5
    36% to make
    Punt
    50.1%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:33BYU 4th & 5 at BYU 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.4%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.5%
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:50USU 4th & 2 at BYU 2, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 55.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    55.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    54.5%−0.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    51.3%−3.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:13BYU 4th & 6 at BYU 25, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.1%−0.4
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:14USU 4th & 6 at USU 45, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.2%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.5%
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:01USU 4th & 9 at USU 35, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.3%−1.0
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.3%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:00BYU 4th & 9 at USU 26, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 28.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.6%−0.6
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.1%
    64% to make
    Punt
    23.9%−4.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:27BYU 4th & 13 at BYU 39, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.4%−1.8
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:16USU 4th & 5 at USU 25, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.7%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.0%
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:51USU 4th & 5 at BYU 29, up 29
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.6%−<0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:03BYU 4th & 10 at BYU 29, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:46USU 4th & 3 at USU 43, up 32
    Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BYU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3USU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 7:35USU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:50USU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:23USU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:28BYU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 10:35USU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 4:55USU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 3:07BYU Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    5.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 12:03USU Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 1:14BYU Touchdown, down 26 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BYUDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 2:3951% → 51%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
50.5%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Dax Milne for 7 yds to the BYU 32Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+4
50.6%
Lopini Katoa run for 4 yds to the BYU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
50.7%
Lopini Katoa run for 3 yds to the BYU 39Similar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+2
50.8%
Squally Canada run for 2 yds to the BYU 41Similar
Q1 12:30
3RD & 5
OWN 41
0
51.0%
Tanner Mangum pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:30
4TH & 5
OWN 41
0
50.8%
Rhett Almond punt for 46 yds, downed at the UthSt 13Similar
Q1 12:06
4TH & 5
OWN 41
0
50.9%
Rhett Almond punt for 51 yds, downed at the UthSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:3949% → 48%
Q1 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
51.0%
Darwin Thompson run for 2 yds to the UthSt 10Similar
Q1 11:30
2ND & 8
OWN 10
+7
51.1%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jalen Greene for 7 yds to the UthSt 17Similar
Q1 11:00
3RD & 1
OWN 17
-5
51.2%
UTAH ST Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the UthSt 12Similar
Q1 10:31
3RD & 6
OWN 12
+1
51.4%
Jordan Love pass complete to Darwin Thompson for 1 yd to the UthSt 13Similar
Q1 10:08
4TH & 5
OWN 13
+8
51.6%
Taylor Hintze punt for 43 yds , Michael Shelton returns for 8 yds to the UthSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 3INT TD
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:2552% → 49%
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-2
51.9%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Lopini Katoa for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 8:40
2ND & 12
50
+2
51.7%
Lopini Katoa run for 2 yds to the UthSt 48Similar
Q1 8:23
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+9
51.8%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Micah Simon for 9 yds to the UthSt 39Similar
Q1 7:35
4TH & 1
OPP 39
+56
48.8%
Tanner Mangum pass intercepted for a TD Tipa Galeai return for 56 yds for a TD, (Dominik Eberle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:4748% → 47%
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
48.3%
Micah Simon run for 3 yds to the BYU 28Similar
Q1 6:40
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+1
48.2%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Aleva Hifo for 1 yd to the BYU 29Similar
Q1 6:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+1
47.7%
Lopini Katoa run for 1 yd to the BYU 30Similar
Q1 5:33
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
47.2%
Rhett Almond punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jordan Nathan at the UthSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 5TD
14 plays · 71 yds · 3:2853% → 58%
Q1 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
47.3%
Jordan Love pass complete to Dax Raymond for 7 yds to the UthSt 36Similar
Q1 5:11
2ND & 3
OWN 36
+6
46.9%
Darwin Thompson run for 6 yds to the UthSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
46.6%
Jordan Love pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:44
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+3
46.7%
Darwin Thompson run for 3 yds to the UthSt 45Similar
Q1 4:06
3RD & 7
OWN 45
+13
46.3%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jalen Greene for 13 yds to the BYU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:38
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
45.8%
Ron'quavion Tarver run for 4 yds to the BYU 38Similar
Q1 3:17
2ND & 6
OPP 38
-10
45.6%
Thompson, Darwin rush for no gain to the BYU38, PENALTY UTAHST illegal block 10 yards to the BYU48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:01
2ND & 16
OPP 48
+40
46.2%
Jordan Love pass complete to Carson Terrell for 40 yds to the BYU 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
44.9%
Gerold Bright run for 1 yd to the BYU 7Similar
Q1 2:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
44.8%
Jordan Love pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
45.0%
Jordan Love run for 5 yds to the BYU 2Similar
Q1 1:50
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
42.1%
Jordan Love pass complete to Gerold Bright for 2 yds for a TD, (Dominik Eberle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 6DOWNS
5 plays · 13 yds · 1:4444% → 43%
Q1 1:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
43.5%
Aleva Hifo run for 3 yds to the BYU 28Similar
Q1 1:25
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+14
43.5%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Matt Bushman for 14 yds to the BYU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-4
44.2%
Squally Canada run for a loss of 4 yards to the BYU 38Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 14
OWN 38
-3
42.9%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Dallin Holker for a loss of 3 yards Dallin Holker fumbled, recovered by UthSt Chase ChristiansenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 7TD
7 plays · 35 yds · 2:0760% → 64%
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
40.2%
Gerold Bright run for 6 yds to the BYU 29Similar
Q2 14:20
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+7
40.0%
Gerold Bright run for 7 yds to the BYU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
39.9%
Jordan Love pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:50
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+3
39.6%
Deven Thompkins run for 3 yds to the BYU 19Similar
Q2 13:20
3RD & 7
OPP 19
+10
39.2%
BYU Penalty, Face Mask (10 yards) (10 Yards) to the BYU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
38.8%
Darwin Thompson run for 3 yds to the BYU 6Similar
Q2 12:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
35.8%
Jordan Love pass complete to Ron'quavion Tarver for 6 yds for a TD, (Dominik Eberle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:5036% → 36%
Q2 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
36.4%
Lopini Katoa run for 4 yds to the BYU 25Similar
Q2 11:30
2ND & 6
OWN 25
0
36.0%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Dylan CollieSimilar
Q2 11:25
3RD & 6
OWN 25
0
35.7%
Tanner Mangum pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:13
4TH & 6
OWN 25
0
35.5%
Rhett Almond punt for 34 yds, downed at the UthSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:4166% → 67%
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-2
34.3%
Jordan Love pass complete to Aaren Vaughns for a loss of 2 yards to the UthSt 39Similar
Q2 10:39
2ND & 12
OWN 39
+10
34.2%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jalen Greene for 10 yds to the UthSt 49Similar
Q2 9:51
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+1
33.3%
Eltoro Allen run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 9:22
4TH & 1
50
-5
33.1%
UTAH ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the UthSt 45Similar
Q2 9:14
4TH & 6
OWN 45
0
33.3%
Taylor Hintze punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Michael Shelton at the BYU 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 10TD
11 plays · 88 yds · 4:3731% → 37%
Q2 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+10
30.6%
UTAH ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the BYU 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
30.5%
Lopini Katoa run for 3 yds to the BYU 25Similar
Q2 8:18
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+10
29.7%
UTAH ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the BYU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
30.0%
UTAH ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:47
1ST & 10
50
+2
31.4%
Lopini Katoa run for 2 yds to the UthSt 48Similar
Q2 7:30
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+1
31.3%
Squally Canada run for 1 yd to the UthSt 47Similar
Q2 6:39
3RD & 7
OPP 47
+11
29.2%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Micah Simon for 11 yds to the UthSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
28.9%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Brayden El-Bakri for 3 yds to the UthSt 33Similar
Q2 4:58
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+14
29.0%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Aleva Hifo for 14 yds to the UthSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+14
28.5%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Aleva Hifo for 14 yds to the UthSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
36.7%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Lopini Katoa for 5 yds for a TD, (Skyler Southam KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 2:0566% → 66%
Q2 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
34.5%
Jordan Love run for 1 yd to the UthSt 25Similar
Q2 3:28
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+9
34.2%
Jordan Love pass complete to Darwin Thompson for 9 yds to the UthSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:05
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
33.5%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Jalen GreeneSimilar
Q2 2:46
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+1
33.3%
Darwin Thompson run for 1 yd to the UthSt 35Similar
Q2 2:10
3RD & 9
OWN 35
0
33.2%
Jordan Love pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:01
4TH & 9
OWN 35
0
33.8%
Taylor Hintze punt for 50 yds, downed at the BYU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 12DOWNS
12 plays · 59 yds · 1:5530% → 28%
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+18
30.0%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Matt Bushman for 18 yds to the BYU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
30.1%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Gunner Romney for 8 yds to the BYU 41Similar
Q2 1:17
2ND & 2
OWN 41
+5
32.0%
UTAH ST Penalty, Delay of Game (5 Yards) to the BYU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
31.9%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Tanner Mangum for 2 yds to the BYU 48Similar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+15
32.2%
UTAH ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the UthSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+10
32.3%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Lopini Katoa for 10 yds to the UthSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
32.9%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Matt BushmanSimilar
Q2 0:26
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
32.5%
Tanner Mangum pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:10
3RD & 10
OPP 27
+1
30.7%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Lopini Katoa for 1 yd to the UthSt 26Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 9
OPP 26
+43
28.4%
Skyler Southam 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 13TD
12 plays · 81 yds · 4:1373% → 90%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
27.0%
Jordan Love pass incomplete to Jordan NathanSimilar
Q3 14:40
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+13
27.0%
Darwin Thompson run for 13 yds to the UthSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
26.5%
Darwin Thompson run for 4 yds to the UthSt 36Similar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+8
25.8%
Jordan Love pass complete to Ron'quavion Tarver for 8 yds to the UthSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
24.4%
Darwin Thompson run for 5 yds to the UthSt 49Similar
Q3 12:46
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+7
23.4%
Jordan Love pass complete to Aaren Vaughns for 7 yds to the BYU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+31
22.9%
Darwin Thompson run for 31 yds to the BYU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+11
22.0%
Gerold Bright run for 11 yds to the BYU 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
21.8%
UTAH ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BYU 7Similar
Q3 11:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
21.3%
Darwin Thompson run for 1 yd to the BYU 6Similar
Q3 10:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
9.9%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jalen Greene for 6 yds for a TD, (Dominik Eberle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 29 yds · 1:5715% → 12%
Q3 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+32
15.0%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Matt Bushman for 32 yds to the BYU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
15.2%
Tanner Mangum pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:42
2ND & 10
OWN 42
-10
14.8%
BYU Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the BYU 32Similar
Q3 8:55
2ND & 20
OWN 32
+7
12.0%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Dax Milne for 7 yds to the BYU 39Similar
Q3 8:36
3RD & 13
OWN 39
0
11.8%
Tanner Mangum pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:27
4TH & 13
OWN 39
0
11.6%
Danny Jones punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jordan Nathan at the UthSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 15TD
10 plays · 82 yds · 3:2092% → 97%
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+36
8.5%
Aaren Vaughns run for 36 yds to the BYU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
8.2%
Gerold Bright run for 9 yds to the BYU 37Similar
Q3 7:23
2ND & 1
OPP 37
+4
7.3%
Gerold Bright run for 4 yds to the BYU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
7.2%
Gerold Bright run for 3 yds to the BYU 30Similar
Q3 6:50
2ND & 7
OPP 30
0
7.0%
Jordan Love pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:35
3RD & 7
OPP 30
+12
6.0%
Jordan Love pass complete to Darwin Thompson for 12 yds to the BYU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+14
5.2%
Darwin Thompson run for 14 yds to the BYU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
5.0%
Darwin Thompson run for 1 yd to the BYU 3Similar
Q3 5:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
4.7%
Darwin Thompson run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 4Similar
Q3 4:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
2.9%
Jordan Love pass complete to Ron'quavion Tarver for 4 yds for a TD, (Dominik Eberle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 16TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:395% → 6%
Q3 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
4.9%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Aleva HifoSimilar
Q3 4:34
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+46
4.6%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Talon Shumway for 46 yds to the UthSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
3.4%
Lopini Katoa run for 5 yds to the UthSt 24Similar
Q3 3:19
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+15
3.0%
UTAH ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the UthSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
3.5%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Talon ShumwaySimilar
Q3 3:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
6.4%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Dylan Collie for 9 yds for a TD, (Skyler Southam PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:4096% → 96%
Q3 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
4.1%
Jordan Love pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:51
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
4.0%
Jordan Love pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:41
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+5
4.1%
Darwin Thompson run for 5 yds to the UthSt 25Similar
Q3 2:16
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
4.1%
Taylor Hintze punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BYU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 18FUMBLE
6 plays · 13 yds · 2:065% → 5%
Q3 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
5.1%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Lopini Katoa for 3 yds to the BYU 41Similar
Q3 1:29
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+8
5.0%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Dax Milne for 8 yds to the BYU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
4.9%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Matt BushmanSimilar
Q3 0:44
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+17
4.8%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Talon Shumway for 17 yds to the UthSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
4.9%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Talon ShumwaySimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 34
-15
4.8%
Tanner Mangum sacked by Jontrell Rocquemore for a loss of 15 yards to the UthSt 49 Tanner Mangum fumbled, recovered by UthSt Jontrell Rocquemore , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 19TD
9 plays · 51 yds · 2:3797% → 100%
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
2.8%
Gerold Bright run for 3 yds to the BYU 48Similar
Q4 14:30
2ND & 7
OPP 48
0
2.8%
Jordan Love pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:22
3RD & 7
OPP 48
+17
2.8%
Jordan Love pass complete to Jalen Greene for 17 yds to the BYU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:59
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+16
2.6%
Jordan Love pass complete to Aaren Vaughns for 16 yds to the BYU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+6
2.5%
Gerold Bright run for 6 yds to the BYU 9Similar
Q4 13:12
2ND & 4
OPP 9
+6
2.4%
Gerold Bright run for 6 yds to the BYU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
2.3%
Gerold Bright run for 2 yds to the BYU 1Similar
Q4 12:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
2.3%
Gerold Bright run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 2Similar
Q4 12:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
0.5%
Jordan Love run for 2 yds for a TD, (Dominik Eberle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 20DOWNS
6 plays · 20 yds · 1:241% → 0%
Q4 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
0.5%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Dax Milne for 5 yds to the BYU 39Similar
Q4 11:22
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+11
0.5%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Talon Shumway for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:15
1ST & 10
50
0
0.5%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Dylan CollieSimilar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 10
50
+4
0.4%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Lopini Katoa for 4 yds to the UthSt 46Similar
Q4 10:07
3RD & 6
OPP 46
0
0.4%
Tanner Mangum pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 21FG
6 plays · 25 yds · 3:04100% → 100%
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
0.5%
Darwin Thompson run for 8 yds to the BYU 46Similar
Q4 9:21
2ND & 2
OPP 46
+12
0.3%
Darwin Thompson run for 12 yds to the BYU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
0.4%
Darwin Thompson run for 1 yd to the BYU 33Similar
Q4 7:47
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+2
0.3%
Gerold Bright run for 2 yds to the BYU 31Similar
Q4 7:18
3RD & 7
OPP 31
+2
0.3%
Gerold Bright run for 2 yds to the BYU 29Similar
Q4 6:51
4TH & 5
OPP 29
+47
0.3%
Dominik Eberle 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:350% → 0%
Q4 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+16
0.2%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Talon Shumway for 16 yds to the BYU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
0.2%
Tanner Mangum pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:15
2ND & 10
OWN 29
0
0.2%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Dylan CollieSimilar
Q4 6:11
3RD & 10
OWN 29
0
0.2%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Lopini KatoaSimilar
Q4 6:03
4TH & 10
OWN 29
0
0.2%
Danny Jones punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jordan Nathan at the UthSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 2:01100% → 100%
Q4 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
0.2%
Eltoro Allen run for 3 yds to the UthSt 39Similar
Q4 5:04
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+2
0.2%
Eltoro Allen run for 2 yds to the UthSt 41Similar
Q4 4:16
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+2
0.2%
Jordan Love pass complete to Carson Terrell for 2 yds to the UthSt 43Similar
Q4 3:46
4TH & 3
OWN 43
+7
0.2%
Taylor Hintze punt for 41 yds , Michael Shelton returns for 7 yds to the BYU 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 24TD
9 plays · 77 yds · 2:250% → 0%
Q4 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+14
0.1%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Matt Bushman for 14 yds to the BYU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
0.1%
BYU Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the BYU 32Similar
Q4 3:05
1ST & 15
OWN 32
+26
0.1%
Zach Wilson run for 26 yds to the UthSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
0.1%
Zach Wilson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:37
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+15
0.1%
UTAH ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the UthSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+20
0.1%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Talon Shumway for 20 yds to the UthSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-1
0.2%
Zach Wilson run for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 8Similar
Q4 1:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-10
0.2%
BYU Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the UthSt 18Similar
Q4 1:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 18
+18
0.2%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Gunner Romney for 18 yds for a TD, (Andrew Mikkelsen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 25END OF GAME
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:14100% → 100%
Q4 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
0.1%
BYU Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the BYU 40Similar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 5
OPP 40
-2
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the BYU 42Similar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 7
OPP 42
-2
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the BYU 44Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 9
OPP 44
0
0.1%
TEAM run for no gain to the BYU 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:35
Jordan Love pass complete to Jalen Greene for 6 yds for a TD, (Dominik Eberle KICK)
-11.4
TD · Q2 4:28
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Lopini Katoa for 5 yds for a TD, (Skyler Southam KICK)
+8.2
TD · Q1 1:50
Jordan Love pass complete to Gerold Bright for 2 yds for a TD, (Dominik Eberle KICK)
-3.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com