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MCN

McNeese 3 at BYU 30

BYU
2018 · Week 4 · Sep 22, 2018 · LaVell Edwards Stadium
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Win probability · BYU
modelBYU aheadMCN aheadconfidence bandkey playBYU scoreMCN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDTDFGFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 6:37 · Alex Kjellsten punt for 34 yds , Michael Shelton returns for 21 yds to the McNSt 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+45.0+22.50−22.5−45.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 81Pregame prior+33.3Home team on offense+7.8Score differential+2.5Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.0Blowout margin+0.6
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 6:38: Gunnar Raborn 20 yd FG GOOD — MCN win probability +0.9 pts (now 7%) (top driver: MCN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 8:42: Lopini Katoa run for 4 yds for a TD (Skyler Southam KICK) — BYU win probability +1.5 pts (now 91%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 6:37: Tanner Mangum pass complete to Talon Shumway for 7 yds for a TD (Skyler Southam KICK) — BYU win probability +2.1 pts (now 94%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:09: Lopini Katoa run for 14 yds for a TD (Skyler Southam KICK) — BYU win probability +2.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q2 0:00: Skyler Southam 30 yd FG GOOD — BYU win probability +2.4 pts (now 98%) (top driver: BYU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BYU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8MCN made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00MCN 4th & 11 at BYU 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.4%−<0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    6.4%−<0.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    6.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:04BYU 4th & 19 at BYU 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.7%−0.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:38MCN 4th & 2 at BYU 2, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 8.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.7%−0.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    8.2%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:48MCN 4th & 6 at BYU 18, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 9.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.5%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    9.5%
    79% to make
    Punt
    8.8%−0.7
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:32BYU 4th & 5 at BYU 47, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.4%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:38MCN 4th & 7 at BYU 23, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.5%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.6%
    70% to make
    Punt
    11.8%−1.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:37MCN 4th & 24 at MCN 22, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.8%−0.6
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:00BYU 4th & 8 at MCN 13, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.9%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.1%
    85% to make
    Punt
    91.5%−2.6
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:53BYU 4th & 5 at MCN 5, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.6%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.6%
    92% to make
    Punt
    96.6%−1.0
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:53MCN 4th & 1 at MCN 34, down 24
    Close callPunted · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.2%−0.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:08BYU 4th & 11 at BYU 31, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.5%−0.5
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.0%
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:49BYU 4th & 3 at MCN 29, up 24
    Close callKicked a field goal · 98.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.5%−0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    97.9%−0.8
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:49MCN 4th & 1 at MCN 34, down 27
    Close callPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%−0.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:00BYU 4th & 3 at MCN 37, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−0.2
    40% to make
    Punt
    99.7%−0.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:10MCN 4th & 2 at MCN 45, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:10MCN 4th & 7 at BYU 44, down 27
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    27% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:00BYU 4th & 23 at BYU 25, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−0.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BYU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q2 8:42BYU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:37BYU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:09BYU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MCNDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 29 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
95.0%
James Tabary pass complete to Parker Orgeron for 9 yds to the McNSt 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 42
+9
95.0%
Justin Pratt run for 9 yds to the BYU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
95.0%
James Tabary pass complete to Cyron Sutton for 9 yds to the BYU 40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 40
+3
95.0%
Justin Pratt run for 3 yds to the BYU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
95.0%
James Tabary pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 37
-1
95.0%
James Tabary pass complete to Parker Orgeron for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 38Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 38
0
95.0%
James Tabary pass incomplete to Justin PrattSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 11
OPP 38
0
95.0%
Alex Kjellsten punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BYU 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q1 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
94.4%
Tanner Mangum pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:04
2ND & 10
OWN 6
+5
94.4%
MILNE, Dax rush for 8 yards to the BYU14 (Jacobs, C.), PENALTY MCN offside 5 yards to the BYU11, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:04
2ND & 5
OWN 11
+10
94.4%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Dallin Holker for 10 yds to the BYU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
94.4%
Tanner Mangum pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:04
2ND & 10
OWN 21
-12
94.4%
Micah Simon run for a loss of 12 yards to the BYU 9 Micah Simon fumbled, recovered by BYU Micah SimonSimilar
Q1 12:04
3RD & 22
OWN 9
+3
94.3%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Moroni Laulu-Pututau for 3 yds to the BYU 12Similar
Q1 12:04
4TH & 19
OWN 12
+5
94.3%
Rhett Almond punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard line , Parker Orgeron returns for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MCNDrive 3FG
9 plays · 48 yds · 2:436% → 7%
Q1 9:21
1ST & 10
50
+24
93.6%
James Tabary pass complete to Cyron Sutton for 24 yds to the BYU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:21
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
93.5%
Ryan Ross run for 4 yds to the BYU 22Similar
Q1 9:21
2ND & 6
OPP 22
0
93.5%
James Tabary pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:21
3RD & 6
OPP 22
+13
93.6%
Ryan Ross run for 2 yds to the BYU 20 for a 1ST down BYU Penalty, face mask (11 yards) (11 Yards) to the BYU 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
93.5%
Ryan Ross run for 6 yds to the BYU 3Similar
Q1 9:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
93.5%
Ryan Ross run for 1 yd to the BYU 2Similar
Q1 9:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
93.6%
James Tabary pass incomplete to Parker OrgeronSimilar
Q1 6:38
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+20
92.7%
Gunnar Raborn 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
Q1 6:38
1ST & GOAL
OWN 35
-5
92.8%
Kjellsten, Alex kickoff 65 yards to the BYU0, HIFO, Aleva return to the BYU11 (Foster, Gabe), PENALTY MCN offside 5 yards to the MCN30, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 4FUMBLE
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q1 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
92.7%
Squally Canada run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 22 Squally Canada fumbled, forced by Cory McCoy, recovered by McNSt Christian JacobsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MCNDrive 5MISSED FG
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:388% → 8%
Q1 6:26
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-1
92.4%
James Tabary pass complete to Parker Orgeron for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 23Similar
Q1 6:26
2ND & 11
OPP 23
+5
92.4%
Justin Pratt run for 5 yds to the BYU 18Similar
Q1 6:26
3RD & 6
OPP 18
0
92.5%
James Tabary pass incomplete to Parker Orgeron MCNEESE ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 4:48
4TH & 6
OPP 18
+35
92.1%
Gunnar Raborn 35 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 2:1692% → 91%
Q1 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
92.0%
Lopini Katoa run for 7 yds to the BYU 27Similar
Q1 4:48
2ND & 3
OWN 27
0
92.1%
Tanner Mangum pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:48
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+15
92.0%
Lopini Katoa run for 15 yds to the BYU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
92.3%
Aleva Hifo run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 41Similar
Q1 4:48
2ND & 11
OWN 41
+6
92.2%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Moroni Laulu-Pututau for 6 yds to the BYU 47Similar
Q1 2:32
3RD & 5
OWN 47
0
91.6%
Tanner Mangum pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:32
4TH & 5
OWN 47
0
91.4%
Danny Jones punt for 38 yds, downed at the McNSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MCNDrive 7MISSED FG
17 plays · 62 yds · 5:399% → 12%
Q1 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-4
91.3%
MCNEESE ST Penalty, IM (-4 Yards) to the McNSt 11Similar
Q1 2:17
1ST & 14
OWN 11
-6
91.3%
MCNEESE ST Penalty, IM (-6 Yards) to the McNSt 5Similar
Q1 2:17
1ST & 20
OWN 5
0
91.4%
David Hamm run for no gain to the McNSt 5Similar
Q1 2:17
2ND & 20
OWN 5
+18
91.4%
James Tabary pass complete to Kylon Highshaw for 18 yds to the McNSt 23Similar
Q1 2:17
3RD & 2
OWN 23
+10
91.3%
Tabary, James pass incomplete to Sutton, Cyron, PENALTY BYU holding 10 yards to the MCN33, 1ST DOWN MCN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
91.1%
James Tabary pass complete to Nate Briscoe for 9 yds to the McNSt 42Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 42
+5
89.7%
James Tabary pass complete to Kylon Highshaw for 5 yds to the McNSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
89.7%
MCNEESE ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the McNSt 42Similar
Q2 14:16
1ST & 15
OWN 42
-5
89.4%
James Tabary run for a loss of 5 yards to the McNSt 35 James Tabary fumbled,Similar
Q2 14:03
2ND & 22
OWN 35
+39
89.9%
James Tabary pass complete to Cyron Sutton for 39 yds to the BYU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:03
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-8
88.9%
James Tabary pass complete to David Hamm for a loss of 8 yards to the BYU 34Similar
Q2 14:03
2ND & 18
OPP 34
+4
89.1%
David Hamm run for 4 yds to the BYU 30Similar
Q2 14:03
3RD & 14
OPP 30
+7
89.4%
James Tabary pass complete to David Hamm for 7 yds to the BYU 23Similar
Q2 11:38
4TH & 7
OPP 23
+40
88.4%
Gunnar Raborn 40 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by null Troy Warner return for 35 yds to the McNSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 8TD
8 plays · 79 yds · 2:5690% → 91%
Q2 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+10
89.7%
Squally Canada run for 10 yds to the McNSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
90.0%
Squally Canada run for 2 yds to the McNSt 32Similar
Q2 11:38
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+4
90.0%
Squally Canada run for 4 yds to the McNSt 28Similar
Q2 11:38
3RD & 4
OPP 28
+7
89.7%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Aleva Hifo for 7 yds to the McNSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
90.0%
Squally Canada run for 2 yds to the McNSt 19Similar
Q2 11:38
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+7
90.0%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Aleva Hifo for 7 yds to the McNSt 12Similar
Q2 11:38
3RD & 1
OPP 12
+8
89.6%
Lopini Katoa run for 8 yds to the McNSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
91.1%
Lopini Katoa run for 4 yds for a TD (Skyler Southam KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MCNDrive 9INT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q2 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
90.9%
Justin Pratt run for 1 yd to the McNSt 26Similar
Q2 8:42
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+19
90.9%
Cody Orgeron pass intercepted Tanner Jacobson return for 19 yds to the McNSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 10TD
5 plays · 31 yds · 1:3792% → 94%
Q2 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
91.5%
Squally Canada run for 5 yds to the McNSt 26Similar
Q2 8:14
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+16
91.5%
Squally Canada run for 16 yds to the McNSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
91.5%
Squally Canada run for 2 yds to the McNSt 8Similar
Q2 8:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
91.5%
Squally Canada run for 1 yd to the McNSt 7Similar
Q2 6:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
93.7%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Talon Shumway for 7 yds for a TD (Skyler Southam KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MCNDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · -3 yds · 0:007% → 6%
Q2 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
93.3%
David Hamm run for 8 yds to the McNSt 33Similar
Q2 6:37
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
92.8%
David Hamm run for 3 yds to the McNSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
93.1%
James Tabary pass complete to Benjamin Jones for no gain to the McNSt 36Similar
Q2 6:37
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+5
93.2%
David Hamm run for 5 yds to the McNSt 41Similar
Q2 6:37
3RD & 5
OWN 41
-9
93.0%
James Tabary sacked by Corbin Kaufusi for a loss of 9 yards to the McNSt 32Similar
Q2 6:37
4TH & 14
OWN 32
-10
93.6%
Kjellsten, Alex punt 36 yards to the BYU32, SHELTON, M. return to the BYU32, fumble forced by TEAM, fumble by SHELTON, M. recovered by MCN TEAM at BYU32, PENALTY MCN holding 10 yards to the MCN22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:37
4TH & 24
OWN 22
+21
93.6%
Alex Kjellsten punt for 34 yds , Michael Shelton returns for 21 yds to the McNSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 12TD
4 plays · 35 yds · 1:2894% → 96%
Q2 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
93.7%
Tanner Mangum pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:37
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+18
93.7%
Squally Canada run for 18 yds to the McNSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
93.8%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Micah Simon for 3 yds to the McNSt 14Similar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+14
96.3%
Lopini Katoa run for 14 yds for a TD (Skyler Southam KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MCNDrive 13FUMBLE
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q2 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
96.7%
MCNEESE ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the McNSt 20Similar
Q2 1:02
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+5
96.6%
Nate Briscoe run for 5 yds to the McNSt 25 Nate Briscoe fumbled, forced by Michael Shelton, recovered by BYU Sawyer PowellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 14FG
6 plays · 12 yds · 0:5397% → 98%
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+10
96.5%
MANGUM, Tanner pass incomplete to MILNE, Dax, PENALTY MCN holding 10 yards to the MCN15, 1ST DOWN BYU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
96.3%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Moroni Laulu-Pututau, broken up by Kyree McLeanSimilar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
96.4%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Aleva HifoSimilar
Q2 0:53
3RD & 10
OPP 15
+2
96.2%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Dallin Holker for 2 yds to the McNSt 13Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 8
OPP 13
+30
97.8%
Skyler Southam 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 15FG
15 plays · 70 yds · 6:0798% → 98%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
97.6%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Dallin Holker for 11 yds to the BYU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+18
97.7%
Lopini Katoa run for 3 yds to the McNSt 39 for a 1ST down MCNEESE ST Penalty, US (15 Yards) to the McNSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
97.8%
MCNEESE ST Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the McNSt 41Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 5
OPP 41
-1
97.8%
Lopini Katoa run for a loss of 1 yard to the McNSt 42Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+4
97.8%
Lopini Katoa run for 4 yds to the McNSt 38Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 38
+8
97.7%
Lopini Katoa run for 8 yds to the McNSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
97.8%
Lopini Katoa run for 2 yds to the McNSt 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+3
97.8%
Aleva Hifo run for 3 yds to the McNSt 25Similar
Q3 11:07
3RD & 5
OPP 25
+15
98.2%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Aleva Hifo for 15 yds to the McNSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
98.2%
Riley Burt run for no gain to the McNSt 10Similar
Q3 11:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
98.2%
Gunner Romney run for 5 yds to the McNSt 5Similar
Q3 11:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
98.2%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Squally CanadaSimilar
Q3 8:53
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
98.2%
Skyler Southam 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MCNDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 8:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
98.1%
Justin Pratt run for 1 yd to the McNSt 26Similar
Q3 8:53
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+8
98.1%
James Tabary pass complete to Lawayne Ross for 8 yds to the McNSt 34Similar
Q3 8:53
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
98.1%
Justin Pratt run for no gain to the McNSt 34Similar
Q3 8:53
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
98.1%
Alex Kjellsten punt for 66 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 11 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q3 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
98.3%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Neil Pau'u for 12 yds to the BYU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-15
98.3%
Riley Burt run for no gain to the BYU 32 BYU Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the BYU 17Similar
Q3 7:08
4TH & 11
OWN 31
+12
98.2%
Danny Jones punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the McNSt 38 , Parker Orgeron returns for 12 yds to the McNSt 38Similar
Q3 7:08
2ND & 25
OWN 17
+16
98.3%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Matt Bushman for 16 yds to the BYU 33Similar
Q3 7:08
3RD & 9
OWN 33
-2
98.3%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Moroni Laulu-Pututau for a loss of 2 yards to the BYU 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MCNDrive 18INT
5 plays · 12 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
98.4%
James Tabary pass complete to Austin Nelson for 3 yds to the McNSt 41Similar
Q3 5:06
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+8
98.4%
David Hamm run for 8 yds to the McNSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
98.4%
David Hamm run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 5:06
2ND & 9
50
0
98.4%
James Tabary pass incomplete to Cyron SuttonSimilar
Q3 5:06
3RD & 9
50
+20
98.4%
James Tabary pass intercepted Rhett Sandlin return for 20 yds to the McNSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 19FG
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:1699% → 100%
Q3 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
99.0%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Micah Simon, broken up by Colby BurtonSimilar
Q3 3:05
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+8
99.0%
Riley Burt run for 8 yds to the McNSt 28Similar
Q3 3:05
3RD & 2
OPP 28
-1
99.0%
Riley Burt run for a loss of 1 yard to the McNSt 29Similar
Q3 1:49
4TH & 3
OPP 29
+47
99.8%
Skyler Southam 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MCNDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
99.9%
Justin Pratt run for 7 yds to the McNSt 32Similar
Q3 1:49
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
99.9%
Justin Pratt run for 2 yds to the McNSt 34Similar
Q3 1:49
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
99.9%
David Hamm run for no gain to the McNSt 34Similar
Q3 1:49
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+8
99.9%
Alex Kjellsten punt for 52 yds , Michael Shelton returns for 8 yds to the BYU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 21DOWNS
13 plays · 41 yds · 4:00100% → 100%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
99.9%
Tanner Mangum pass incomplete to Micah SimonSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+4
99.9%
Riley Burt run for 4 yds to the BYU 26Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 26
+9
99.9%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Aleva Hifo for 9 yds to the BYU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
99.9%
Riley Burt run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 34Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+12
99.9%
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Akile Davis for 12 yds to the BYU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
99.9%
Riley Burt run for 3 yds to the BYU 49Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+7
99.9%
Riley Burt run for 7 yds to the McNSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
99.9%
Dax Milne run for 5 yds to the McNSt 39Similar
Q4 11:00
2ND & 5
OPP 39
-10
99.9%
Zach Wilson run for no gain to the McNSt 39 BYU Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the McNSt 49Similar
Q4 11:00
2ND & 15
OPP 49
0
99.9%
Beau Hoge run for no gain to the McNSt 49Similar
Q4 11:00
3RD & 15
OPP 49
+12
99.9%
Zach Wilson pass complete to Gunner Romney for 12 yds to the McNSt 37Similar
Q4 11:00
4TH & 3
OPP 37
0
99.9%
Zach Wilson pass incomplete to Matt BushmanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MCNDrive 22DOWNS
8 plays · 25 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
99.9%
Cody Orgeron pass complete to Mac Briscoe for 3 yds to the McNSt 40Similar
Q4 9:10
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+5
99.9%
Cody Orgeron run for 5 yds to the McNSt 45Similar
Q4 9:10
3RD & 2
OWN 45
0
99.9%
Cody Orgeron pass complete to Mac Briscoe for no gain to the McNSt 45Similar
Q4 9:10
4TH & 2
OWN 45
+8
99.9%
Cody Orgeron pass complete to Parker Orgeron for 8 yds to the BYU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-11
99.9%
Cody Orgeron sacked for a loss of 11 yards to the McNSt 42Similar
Q4 9:10
2ND & 21
OWN 42
0
99.9%
Cody Orgeron run for no gain to the McNSt 42Similar
Q4 9:10
3RD & 21
OWN 42
+14
99.9%
Cody Orgeron run for 14 yds to the BYU 44Similar
Q4 9:10
4TH & 7
OPP 44
+6
99.9%
Cody Orgeron run for 6 yds to the BYU 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · -13 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-10
99.9%
HADLEY, Matt rush for no gain to the BYU38 (Blunt, BJ), PENALTY BYU holding 10 yards to the BYU28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 20
OWN 28
0
99.9%
Zach Wilson run for no gain to the BYU 28Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 20
OWN 28
-2
99.9%
Matt Hadley run for a loss of 2 yards to the BYU 26Similar
Q4 5:00
3RD & 22
OWN 26
-1
99.9%
Dax Milne run for a loss of 1 yard to the BYU 25Similar
Q4 5:00
4TH & 23
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Rhett Almond punt for 48 yds, downed at the McNSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MCNDrive 24FUMBLE
1 play · 2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
100.0%
Cody Orgeron pass complete to Rodnell Cruell for 9 yds Rodnell Cruell fumbled, forced by Nate Sampson, recovered by BYU Alden Tofa , return for no gain to the McNSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BYUDrive 25END OF GAME
4 plays · 23 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+20
100.0%
Matt Hadley run for 20 yds to the McNSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
100.0%
Matt Hadley run for 5 yds to the McNSt 4Similar
Q4 2:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the McNSt 5Similar
Q4 2:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the McNSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 1:09
Lopini Katoa run for 14 yds for a TD (Skyler Southam KICK)
+2.5
FG · Q2 0:00
Skyler Southam 30 yd FG GOOD
+2.4
TD · Q2 6:37
Tanner Mangum pass complete to Talon Shumway for 7 yds for a TD (Skyler Southam KICK)
+2.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com