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UNT

North Texas 24 at UTSA 21

UTSA
2018 · Week 13 · Nov 24, 2018 · Alamodome
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Win probability · UTSA
modelUTSA aheadUNT aheadconfidence bandkey playUTSA scoreUNT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 6:06 · Yannis Routsas punt for 39 yds , Keegan Brewer returns for a loss of 3 yards to the NoTex 7 NORTH TEXAS Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the NoTex 38
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+45.0+22.50−22.5−45.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 73Pregame prior−37.7Home team on offense−7.3Garbage-time factor−2.0Score differential−3.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:00: Mason Fine pass complete to Kelvin Smith for 3 yds for a TD (Cole Hedlund KICK) — UNT win probability +2.8 pts (now 95%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 8:33: Brenden Brady run for 1 yd for a TD UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, false start (Jarrod Carter-McLin) to the NoTex 8 SACKETT, Jared kick attempt good, PENALTY UTSA holding (FUENTES, Robert) 10 yards to the UNT18, NO PLAY. (Jared Sackett KICK) — UTSA win probability +3.2 pts (now 10%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:00: Bryce Rivers run for 3 yds for a TD (Jared Sackett KICK) — UTSA win probability +6.0 pts (now 17%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q3 3:18: DeAndre Torrey run for 3 yds for a TD (Cole Hedlund KICK) — UNT win probability +7.2 pts (now 90%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:01: Bryce Rivers pass complete to Tariq Woolen for 8 yds for a TD (Jared Sackett KICK) — UTSA win probability +23.5 pts (now 39%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UTSA made the numbers' call on 6 of 7UNT made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 8:27UTSA 4th & 8 at UTSA 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.8%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 0:23UNT 4th & 3 at UTSA 3, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 89.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.4%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.2%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    87.8%−1.7
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00UTSA 4th & 7 at UTSA 37, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.1%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.1%
    average punt
  4. Q2 6:06UTSA 4th & 6 at UTSA 10, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.9%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:03UNT 4th & 6 at UNT 42, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.6%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:28UTSA 4th & 1 at UNT 4, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.1%
    65% to convert
    Field goal
    12.3%−0.8
    93% to make
    Punt
    9.6%−3.5
    average punt
  7. Q3 15:00UNT 4th & 6 at UNT 44, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.3%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.8%
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:21UTSA 4th & 17 at UTSA 34, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.3%−2.9
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:18UTSA 4th & 13 at UTSA 49, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.7%−1.2
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.9%
    average punt
  10. Q4 15:00UNT 4th & 13 at UTSA 36, up 10
    Close callPunted · 84.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.5%−0.9
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    85.3%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    84.8%−0.5
    average punt
  11. Q4 2:32UNT 4th & 1 at UTSA 32, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    74.1%−7.6
    51% to make
    Punt
    68.8%−12.9
    average punt
  12. Q4 0:30UTSA 4th & 16 at UNT 42, down 3
    Numbers favored field goal by 6.7 ptsWent for it · 24.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.7%−6.7
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    23.3%
    30% to make
    Punt
    12.8%−10.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UTSA made the numbers' call on 2 of 3UNT made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 8:27UNT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:00UNT Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:33UTSA Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:00UTSA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:18UNT Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 8:01UTSA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.0%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UTSADrive 1INT
10 plays · 61 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
5.0%
Bryce Rivers pass incomplete to Greg Campbell Jr.Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
5.0%
Bryce Rivers pass complete to Greg Campbell Jr. for 7 yds to the TexSA 32Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+11
5.0%
Bryce Rivers run for 11 yds to the TexSA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
5.0%
Bryce Rivers run for 3 yds to the TexSA 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+3
5.0%
Jalen Rhodes run for 3 yds to the TexSA 49Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 49
+6
5.0%
Bryce Rivers pass complete to Marquez McNair for 6 yds to the NoTex 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+27
5.0%
Jalen Rhodes run for 27 yds to the NoTex 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
5.0%
Brenden Brady run for 4 yds to the NoTex 14Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 14
0
5.0%
Bryce Rivers pass intercepted, touchback. Kemon Hall return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 2TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 2:3194% → 94%
Q1 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
6.2%
DeAndre Torrey run for 12 yds to the NoTex 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
6.1%
Mason Fine pass complete to Rico Bussey Jr. for 4 yds to the NoTex 36Similar
Q1 10:58
2ND & 6
OWN 36
0
6.1%
Mason Fine pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:58
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+7
6.2%
Mason Fine pass complete to Greg White for 7 yds to the NoTex 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
6.1%
DeAndre Torrey run for 8 yds to the TexSA 49Similar
Q1 8:27
2ND & 2
OPP 49
+49
6.2%
Mason Fine pass complete to Michael Lawrence for 49 yds for a TD (Cole Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q1 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
6.4%
Bryce Rivers pass complete to Greg Campbell Jr. for 7 yds to the TexSA 39Similar
Q1 8:27
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+4
6.5%
Jalen Rhodes run for 4 yds to the TexSA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
6.5%
UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TexSA 38Similar
Q1 8:27
1ST & 15
OWN 38
+4
6.4%
Jalen Rhodes run for 4 yds to the TexSA 42Similar
Q1 8:27
2ND & 11
OWN 42
+3
6.5%
Jalen Rhodes run for 3 yds to the TexSA 45Similar
Q1 8:27
3RD & 8
OWN 45
0
6.4%
Bryce Rivers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:27
4TH & 8
OWN 45
0
6.4%
Yannis Routsas punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 4FG
15 plays · 88 yds · 5:2393% → 92%
Q1 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
7.0%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Rico Bussey Jr.Similar
Q1 5:46
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+10
7.1%
Mason Fine pass complete to Kelvin Smith for 10 yds to the NoTex 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
7.0%
Mason Fine pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:46
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+25
7.0%
DeAndre Torrey run for 25 yds to the NoTex 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-10
6.8%
FINE, Mason sideline pass complete to SMITH, Nic for 3 yards to the UNT47 (GRADY, Cassius), PENALTY UNT holding (MURRAY, Jordan) 10 yards to the UNT34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:46
1ST & 20
OWN 34
0
7.0%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Rico Bussey Jr.Similar
Q1 5:46
2ND & 20
OWN 34
+8
7.0%
DeAndre Torrey run for 8 yds to the NoTex 42Similar
Q1 5:46
3RD & 12
OWN 42
+19
7.0%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jalen Guyton for 19 yds to the TexSA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+15
6.8%
UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, roughing passer (15 Yards) to the TexSA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
6.7%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Rico Bussey Jr., broken up by Jarrod Carter-McLinSimilar
Q1 5:46
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+23
6.7%
Mason Fine pass complete to Rico Bussey Jr. for 23 yds to the TexSA 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
6.7%
DeAndre Torrey run for no gain to the TexSA 1Similar
Q1 5:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
6.7%
DeAndre Torrey run for no gain to the TexSA 1Similar
Q1 5:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
6.8%
DeAndre Torrey run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSA 3Similar
Q1 0:23
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
8.0%
Cole Hedlund 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 26 yds · 0:238% → 8%
Q1 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+10
7.8%
Brenden Brady run for 10 yds to the TexSA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+13
7.9%
Brenden Brady run for 13 yds to the TexSA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
8.0%
Brenden Brady run for 3 yds to the TexSA 37Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 37
0
8.0%
Bryce Rivers pass incomplete to Brenden BradySimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 37
0
7.9%
Bryce Rivers pass incomplete to Greg Campbell Jr., broken up by Jameel MooreSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 37
+7
7.7%
Yannis Routsas punt for 55 yds , Keegan Brewer returns for 7 yds to the NoTex 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 6TD
10 plays · 85 yds · 3:4392% → 95%
Q2 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
8.5%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Rico Bussey Jr.Similar
Q2 13:43
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+5
8.6%
DeAndre Torrey run for 5 yds to the NoTex 20Similar
Q2 13:43
3RD & 5
OWN 20
+5
8.6%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 5 yds to the NoTex 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
8.5%
Mason Fine pass complete to Michael Lawrence for 15 yds to the NoTex 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
8.2%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 8 yds to the NoTex 48Similar
Q2 13:43
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+14
8.1%
Nic Smith run for 14 yds to the TexSA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:43
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+14
8.2%
Mason Fine pass complete to Quinetin Jackson for 14 yds to the TexSA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:43
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
8.1%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Greg WhiteSimilar
Q2 13:43
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+21
8.1%
DeAndre Torrey run for 21 yds to the TexSA 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
5.4%
Mason Fine pass complete to Kelvin Smith for 3 yds for a TD (Cole Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 7TD
7 plays · 90 yds · 1:276% → 10%
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+12
6.4%
Bryce Rivers pass complete to Greg Campbell Jr. for 12 yds to the TexSA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+44
6.4%
Bryce Rivers pass complete to Greg Campbell Jr. for 44 yds to the UTSA 34 for a 1ST down NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
7.0%
Brenden Brady run for 6 yds to the NoTex 28Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 4
OPP 28
+27
7.1%
Brenden Brady run for 27 yds to the NoTex 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
10.3%
Brenden Brady run for 1 yd for a TD UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, false start (Jarrod Carter-McLin) to the NoTex 8 SACKETT, Jared kick attempt good, PENALTY UTSA holding (FUENTES, Robert) 10 yards to the UNT18, NO PLAY. (Jared Sackett KICK)Similar
Q2 8:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-10
10.3%
SACKETT, Jared kick attempt good, PENALTY UTSA holding (FUENTES, Robert) 10 yards to the UNT18, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 8INT
6 plays · 53 yds · 0:0090% → 91%
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
9.9%
Mason Fine pass complete to DeAndre Torrey for 22 yds to the NoTex 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
9.4%
DeAndre Torrey run for 8 yds to the TexSA 45Similar
Q2 8:33
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+5
9.4%
Nic Smith run for 5 yds to the TexSA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+18
9.4%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jalen Guyton for 18 yds to the TexSA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+18
9.3%
Mason Fine pass intercepted Cassius Grady return for 12 yds to the TexSA 10 UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, Offensive holding (Les Maruo) to the TexSA 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0010% → 9%
Q2 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+4
9.5%
Jalen Rhodes run for 4 yds to the TexSA 10Similar
Q2 6:06
2ND & 6
OWN 10
0
9.5%
Bryce Rivers pass incomplete to Greg Campbell Jr.Similar
Q2 6:06
3RD & 6
OWN 10
0
9.2%
Bryce Rivers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:06
4TH & 6
OWN 10
-3
9.1%
Yannis Routsas punt for 39 yds , Keegan Brewer returns for a loss of 3 yards to the NoTex 7 NORTH TEXAS Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the NoTex 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q2 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-10
9.6%
FINE, Mason sideline pass complete to DARDEN, Jaelon for 24 yards to the UTSA38, out-of-bounds (MARUO, Les), PENALTY UNT holding (MURRAY, Jordan) 10 yards to the UNT28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:03
1ST & 20
OWN 28
+3
10.1%
DeAndre Torrey run for 3 yds to the NoTex 31Similar
Q2 5:03
2ND & 17
OWN 31
+4
10.2%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 4 yds to the NoTex 35Similar
Q2 5:03
3RD & 13
OWN 35
+7
10.4%
Mason Fine run for 7 yds to the NoTex 42 NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 5:03
4TH & 6
OWN 42
+26
10.1%
Alvin Kenworthy punt blocked by Solomon Wise blocked by Solomon Wise Tyler Mahnke return for 16 yds to the UTSA 42 UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the NoTex 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 11TD
11 plays · 28 yds · 2:5612% → 17%
Q2 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
12.0%
Bryce Rivers pass incomplete to Greg Campbell Jr.Similar
Q2 2:56
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+15
11.9%
Bryce Rivers pass complete to Tariq Woolen for 15 yds to the NoTex 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
12.0%
Jalen Rhodes run for 2 yds to the NoTex 11Similar
Q2 2:56
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+3
12.0%
Bryce Rivers pass complete to Greg Campbell Jr. for 3 yds to the NoTex 8Similar
Q2 2:56
3RD & 5
OPP 8
+4
11.4%
Bryce Rivers pass complete to Sheldon Jones for 4 yds to the NoTex 4Similar
Q2 0:28
4TH & 1
OPP 4
+1
10.8%
Halen Steward run for 1 yd to the NoTex 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
11.7%
Brenden Brady pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
17.3%
Bryce Rivers run for 3 yds for a TD (Jared Sackett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 12PUNT
10 plays · 19 yds · 0:0084% → 83%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
16.4%
Mason Fine run for 3 yds to the NoTex 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+1
16.2%
DeAndre Torrey run for 1 yd to the NoTex 29Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-10
16.7%
FINE, Mason middle pass complete to YOUNG, Cudjoe for 16 yards to the UNT45 (MARUO, Les), PENALTY UNT holding (MURRAY, Jordan) 10 yards to the UNT19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+21
17.3%
Mason Fine pass complete to Cudjoe Young for 21 yds to the NoTex 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
15.3%
DeAndre Torrey run for 1 yd to the NoTex 41Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 41
0
15.5%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Jalen GuytonSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 41
+8
16.1%
Mason Fine pass complete to Kelvin Smith for 8 yds to the NoTex 49Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 49
-5
16.1%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the NoTex 44Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 44
+27
16.7%
Alvin Kenworthy punt for 42 yds, downed at the UTSA 14 NORTH TEXAS Penalty, kick catching interference (-15 Yards) to the TexSA 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 0:0020% → 18%
Q3 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-1
19.6%
Bryce Rivers run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 28Similar
Q3 11:21
2ND & 11
OWN 28
+7
19.2%
Bryce Rivers pass complete to Greg Campbell Jr. for 7 yds to the TexSA 35Similar
Q3 11:21
3RD & 4
OWN 35
+6
19.2%
Bryce Rivers pass complete to Greg Campbell Jr. for 6 yds to the TexSA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-2
21.3%
Jalen Rhodes run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSA 39Similar
Q3 11:21
2ND & 12
OWN 39
+6
20.0%
Bryce Rivers pass complete to Larry Stephens for 6 yds to the TexSA 45Similar
Q3 11:21
3RD & 6
OWN 45
-11
20.6%
Bryce Rivers sacked by E.J. Ejiya for a loss of 11 yards to the TexSA 34Similar
Q3 11:21
4TH & 17
OWN 34
0
18.0%
Yannis Routsas punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Keegan Brewer at the NoTex 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 14TD
9 plays · 74 yds · 4:2179% → 90%
Q3 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
20.7%
Mason Fine run for 9 yds to the NoTex 35Similar
Q3 7:39
2ND & 1
OWN 35
+1
19.7%
DeAndre Torrey run for 1 yd to the NoTex 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
19.9%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jalen Guyton for 5 yds to the NoTex 41Similar
Q3 7:39
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+6
19.1%
Mason Fine pass complete to Cudjoe Young for 6 yds to the NoTex 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
18.9%
Mason Fine pass complete to Nic Smith for 7 yds to the TexSA 46Similar
Q3 7:39
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+17
18.4%
DeAndre Torrey run for 17 yds to the TexSA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+8
17.7%
Nic Smith run for 8 yds to the TexSA 21Similar
Q3 7:39
2ND & 2
OPP 21
+18
17.7%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jalen Guyton for 18 yds to the TexSA 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
10.5%
DeAndre Torrey run for 3 yds for a TD (Cole Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 15PUNT
10 plays · 21 yds · 0:0013% → 12%
Q3 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+10
12.6%
Brenden Brady run for 10 yds to the TexSA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
13.2%
Bryce Rivers pass incomplete to Greg Campbell Jr.Similar
Q3 3:18
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+8
13.0%
Bryce Rivers pass complete to Brenden Brady for 8 yds to the TexSA 46Similar
Q3 3:18
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+6
13.3%
Bryce Rivers pass complete to Greg Campbell Jr. for 6 yds to the NoTex 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-10
14.2%
RIVERS, Bryce sideline pass complete to BRADY, Brenden for 13 yards to the UNT35 (DAVIS, Tyreke), PENALTY UTSA holding (SHARP, Gavin) 10 yards to the UTSA42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:18
1ST & 20
OWN 42
+7
12.9%
Bryce Rivers run for 7 yds to the TexSA 49Similar
Q3 3:18
2ND & 13
OWN 49
0
13.3%
Bryce Rivers pass incomplete to Larry StephensSimilar
Q3 3:18
3RD & 13
OWN 49
0
12.4%
Bryce Rivers pass incomplete to Sheldon Jones UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 3:18
4TH & 13
OWN 49
0
11.7%
Yannis Routsas punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Keegan Brewer at the NoTex 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 16PUNT
9 plays · 52 yds · 0:0887% → 86%
Q3 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+17
13.5%
DeAndre Torrey run for 17 yds to the NoTex 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
13.1%
DeAndre Torrey run for 2 yds to the NoTex 31Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+18
13.1%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jalen Guyton for 18 yds to the NoTex 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
11.9%
Nic Smith run for 2 yds to the TexSA 49Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+16
11.8%
DeAndre Torrey run for 16 yds to the TexSA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
11.4%
Nic Smith run for 1 yd to the TexSA 32Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 32
-8
11.4%
Mason Fine sacked by Josiah Tauaefa for a loss of 8 yards to the TexSA 40Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 17
OPP 40
+4
12.6%
Mason Fine pass complete to Greg White for 4 yds to the TexSA 36Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 13
OPP 36
0
13.9%
Alvin Kenworthy punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Greg Campbell Jr. at the TexSA 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 17TD
6 plays · 92 yds · 2:5012% → 39%
Q4 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+42
12.2%
Bryce Rivers pass complete to Greg Campbell Jr. for 42 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:51
1ST & 10
50
+27
14.2%
Bryce Rivers pass complete to Greg Campbell Jr. for 27 yds to the NoTex 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:51
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+9
16.4%
Brenden Brady run for 9 yds to the NoTex 14Similar
Q4 10:51
2ND & 1
OPP 14
-1
16.4%
Brenden Brady run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 15Similar
Q4 10:51
3RD & 2
OPP 15
+7
15.1%
Brenden Brady run for 7 yds to the NoTex 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
38.6%
Bryce Rivers pass complete to Tariq Woolen for 8 yds for a TD (Jared Sackett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 18DOWNS
13 plays · 41 yds · 5:2975% → 81%
Q4 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
25.3%
Mason Fine pass complete to Michael Lawrence for 5 yds to the NoTex 30Similar
Q4 8:01
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
24.2%
Mason Fine pass complete to DeAndre Torrey for 2 yds to the NoTex 32Similar
Q4 8:01
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+4
25.1%
Mason Fine pass complete to Cudjoe Young for 4 yds to the NoTex 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
24.0%
DeAndre Torrey run for 2 yds to the NoTex 38Similar
Q4 8:01
2ND & 8
OWN 38
0
23.0%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Greg WhiteSimilar
Q4 8:01
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+21
24.2%
Mason Fine pass complete to Keegan Brewer for 21 yds to the TexSA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
22.0%
DeAndre Torrey run for 7 yds to the TexSA 34Similar
Q4 8:01
2ND & 3
OPP 34
-2
20.5%
DeAndre Torrey run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSA 36Similar
Q4 3:18
3RD & 5
OPP 36
+4
18.9%
DeAndre Torrey run for 4 yds to the TexSA 32Similar
Q4 2:32
4TH & 1
OPP 32
-2
19.4%
DeAndre Torrey run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSA 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 19MISSED FG
16 plays · 35 yds · 2:2833% → 16%
Q4 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+10
32.8%
Bryce Rivers pass complete to Tariq Woolen for 10 yds to the TexSA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
36.0%
Bryce Rivers run for 2 yds to the TexSA 46Similar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+18
32.4%
Bryce Rivers pass complete to Sheldon Jones for 18 yds to the NoTex 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-1
35.3%
Jalen Rhodes run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 37Similar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 11
OPP 37
-5
34.2%
UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, false start (Gavin Sharp) to the NoTex 42Similar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 16
OPP 42
+8
31.7%
Bryce Rivers pass complete to Sheldon Jones for 8 yds to the NoTex 34Similar
Q4 1:40
3RD & 8
OPP 34
-8
35.9%
Bryce Rivers sacked by Brandon Garner for a loss of 8 yards to the NoTex 42Similar
Q4 0:30
4TH & 16
OPP 42
+25
20.2%
Bryce Rivers pass complete to Greg Campbell Jr. for 25 yds to the NoTex 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
37.7%
Bryce Rivers pass incomplete to Sheldon JonesSimilar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 10
OPP 17
-5
34.9%
UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the NoTex 22Similar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 15
OPP 22
-9
29.4%
Bryce Rivers sacked by E.J. Ejiya for a loss of 9 yards to the NoTex 31Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 24
OPP 31
+48
15.6%
Jared Sackett 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:01
Bryce Rivers pass complete to Tariq Woolen for 8 yds for a TD (Jared Sackett KICK)
+23.5
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-15.6
TD · Q3 3:18
DeAndre Torrey run for 3 yds for a TD (Cole Hedlund KICK)
-7.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com