Try the model
UAB

UAB 3 at Middle Tennessee 27

MTSU
2018 · Week 13 · Nov 24, 2018 · Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MTSU
modelMTSU aheadUAB aheadconfidence bandkey playMTSU scoreUAB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:55 · Kyle Greenwell punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Ty Lee at the MTnSt 47
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 42Home team on offense−0.7Pregame prior−8.6Score differential−1.1Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. KEY PLAY · Q2 9:57: Jarrion Street run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 33 — UAB win probability +3.2 pts (now 56%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q2 7:23: Brent Stockstill pass complete to Patrick Smith for a loss of 2 yards to the UAB 37 — MTSU win probability +3.8 pts (now 52%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 2:35: Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ty Lee for 12 yds for a TD UAB Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined (Crews Holt KICK) — MTSU win probability +12.9 pts (now 65%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:40: Brent Stockstill pass complete to Zack Dobson for 12 yds for a TD (Crews Holt KICK) — MTSU win probability +18.0 pts (now 91%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:30: Zack Dobson run for 45 yds for a TD (Crews Holt KICK) — MTSU win probability +3.0 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MTSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8UAB made the numbers' call on 10 of 10
  1. Q1 8:35UAB 4th & 12 at MTSU 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.5%−0.3
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.8%
    79% to make
    Punt
    53.8%−1.0
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:15MTSU 4th & 27 at UAB 45, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.3%−0.5
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    44.5%−0.3
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    44.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:47UAB 4th & 20 at UAB 15, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.0%−1.1
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.1%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:55MTSU 4th & 6 at UAB 11, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.8%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.0%
    87% to make
    Punt
    42.8%−3.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:55UAB 4th & 15 at UAB 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.2%−1.3
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:57MTSU 4th & 5 at UAB 7, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 50.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.7%
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.7%−<0.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    46.2%−3.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:57UAB 4th & 16 at MTSU 41, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.8%−0.9
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    48.3%−0.4
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    48.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:20UAB 4th & 6 at UAB 29, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.6%−0.6
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:33MTSU 4th & 6 at MTSU 36, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.8%−1.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00MTSU 4th & 9 at MTSU 26, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.6%−2.0
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:15UAB 4th & 4 at UAB 31, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.5%−1.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:40UAB 4th & 15 at UAB 20, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.0%−2.7
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.7%
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:48MTSU 4th & 5 at MTSU 39, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.7%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 15:00UAB 4th & 21 at UAB 27, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.1%−2.9
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.9%
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:12MTSU 4th & 1 at MTSU 49, up 17
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 93.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.6%−1.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:49UAB 4th & 22 at UAB 5, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.9%−2.6
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.4%
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:30UAB 4th & 26 at UAB 32, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%−0.4
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.4%
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:04MTSU 4th & 12 at UAB 49, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%−<0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MTSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q2 2:35MTSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 4:40MTSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 9:30MTSU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UABDrive 1FG
14 plays · 40 yds · 6:2561% → 60%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
38.6%
Jarrion Street run for 9 yds to the MTnSt 49Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 49
0
38.6%
A.J. Erdely pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+6
38.6%
Jarrion Street run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
38.6%
Jarrion Street run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 40
0
38.6%
A.J. Erdely pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+12
38.6%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Andre Wilson for 12 yds to the MTnSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
38.6%
Jarrion Street run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 22Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 22
-3
38.6%
Jarrion Street run for a loss of 3 yards to the MTnSt 25Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 25
+9
38.6%
A.J. Erdely run for 9 yds to the MTnSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
38.6%
Jarrion Street run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 12Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 12
-4
38.6%
Jarrion Street run for a loss of 4 yards to the MTnSt 16Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 16
-2
38.6%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Xavier Ubosi for a loss of 2 yards to the MTnSt 18Similar
Q1 8:35
4TH & 12
OPP 18
+35
40.3%
Nick Vogel 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 2PUNT
10 plays · 30 yds · 2:2040% → 40%
Q1 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
40.1%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Zack Dobson for 7 yds to the MTnSt 32Similar
Q1 8:35
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+28
40.5%
Chaton Mobley run for 28 yds to the UAB 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
40.9%
Chaton Mobley run for 6 yds to the UAB 34Similar
Q1 8:35
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+6
41.1%
Tavares Thomas run for 6 yds to the UAB 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-15
42.0%
STOCKSTILL, B. pass complete to UPTON, Isiah for 28 yards to the UAB0, clock 06:15, PENALTY MT holding (CASEY, Gatlin) 15 yards to the UAB43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:15
1ST & 25
OPP 43
0
41.2%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Patrick SmithSimilar
Q1 6:15
2ND & 25
OPP 43
-8
41.1%
Brent Stockstill sacked by Jamell Garcia-Williams for a loss of 8 yards to the MTnSt 49Similar
Q1 6:15
3RD & 33
OWN 49
+6
40.5%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ty Lee for 6 yds to the UAB 45Similar
Q1 6:15
4TH & 27
OPP 45
0
40.3%
Matt Bonadies punt for 20 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UAB 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -10 yds · 0:0059% → 58%
Q1 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
41.1%
Lucious Stanley run for a loss of 5 yards to the UAB 20Similar
Q1 4:47
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+5
41.2%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Collin Lisa for 5 yds to the UAB 25Similar
Q1 4:47
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-10
41.5%
A.J. Erdely sacked by Khalil Brooks for a loss of 10 yards to the UAB 15Similar
Q1 4:47
4TH & 20
OWN 15
0
41.9%
Kyle Greenwell punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Ty Lee at the UAB 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 4FG
8 plays · 37 yds · 2:4543% → 44%
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
42.6%
Zack Dobson run for 1 yd to the UAB 47Similar
Q1 2:40
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+32
42.6%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ty Lee for 32 yds to the UAB 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
43.1%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Tavares Thomas for 3 yds to the UAB 12Similar
Q1 2:40
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+3
43.1%
Brent Stockstill run for 3 yds to the UAB 9Similar
Q1 0:30
3RD & 4
OPP 9
+3
42.4%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ty Lee for 3 yds to the UAB 6Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 6
-5
41.8%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the UAB 11Similar
Q2 14:55
4TH & 6
OPP 11
+28
44.3%
Crews Holt 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 0:0057% → 56%
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
42.6%
A.J. Erdely pass incomplete to Xavier UbosiSimilar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 18
0
42.7%
A.J. Erdely pass incomplete to Kailon CarterSimilar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 10
OWN 18
0
43.3%
A.J. Erdely pass incomplete to Jarrion StreetSimilar
Q2 14:55
4TH & 10
OWN 18
-5
43.8%
UAB Penalty, false start (Donnie Lee) to the UAB 13Similar
Q2 14:55
4TH & 15
OWN 13
0
43.8%
Kyle Greenwell punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Ty Lee at the MTnSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 6FG
10 plays · 46 yds · 4:3345% → 48%
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
45.3%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Terelle West for 5 yds to the UAB 48Similar
Q2 14:30
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+9
45.5%
Tavares Thomas run for 9 yds to the UAB 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
46.3%
Chaton Mobley run for 3 yds to the UAB 36Similar
Q2 13:16
2ND & 7
OPP 36
0
46.4%
Brent Stockstill pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:16
3RD & 7
OPP 36
+24
46.0%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ty Lee for 24 yds to the UAB 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
46.8%
Chaton Mobley run for 1 yd to the UAB 11Similar
Q2 13:16
2ND & 9
OPP 11
-3
46.8%
Terelle West run for a loss of 3 yards to the UAB 14Similar
Q2 13:16
3RD & 12
OPP 14
+7
45.8%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Gatlin Casey for 7 yds to the UAB 7Similar
Q2 9:57
4TH & 5
OPP 7
+24
47.9%
Crews Holt 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 34 yds · 0:0053% → 52%
Q2 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
47.4%
Spencer Brown run for no gain to the UAB 25Similar
Q2 9:57
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+40
47.6%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Kailon Carter for 40 yds to the MTnSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
44.3%
Jarrion Street run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 33Similar
Q2 9:57
2ND & 8
OPP 33
0
44.3%
A.J. Erdely pass incomplete to Donnie Lee, broken up by Cordell HudsonSimilar
Q2 9:57
3RD & 8
OPP 33
-15
45.4%
UAB Penalty, personal foul (Justice Powers) to the MTnSt 48Similar
Q2 9:57
3RD & 23
OPP 48
+7
47.1%
A.J. Erdely run for 7 yds to the MTnSt 41Similar
Q2 9:57
4TH & 16
OPP 41
0
48.1%
Kyle Greenwell punt for 35 yds, downed at the MTnSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 8TD
9 plays · 94 yds · 4:4849% → 65%
Q2 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
48.8%
Chaton Mobley run for no gain to the MTnSt 6Similar
Q2 7:23
2ND & 10
OWN 6
+20
48.6%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Gatlin Casey for 20 yds to the MTnSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
49.2%
Chaton Mobley run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 30Similar
Q2 7:23
2ND & 6
OWN 30
0
49.3%
Chaton Mobley run for no gain to the MTnSt 30Similar
Q2 7:23
3RD & 6
OWN 30
+35
48.4%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Gatlin Casey for 35 yds to the UAB 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-2
52.2%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Patrick Smith for a loss of 2 yards to the UAB 37Similar
Q2 7:23
2ND & 12
OPP 37
+17
51.2%
Chaton Mobley run for 2 yds to the UAB 35 for a 1ST down UAB Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Jamell Garcia-Williams) to the UAB 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
52.1%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Zack Dobson for 8 yds to the UAB 12Similar
Q2 2:35
2ND & 2
OPP 12
+12
65.0%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ty Lee for 12 yds for a TD UAB Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined (Crews Holt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:1537% → 35%
Q2 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
63.5%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Xavier Ubosi for 2 yds to the UAB 27Similar
Q2 2:35
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-12
63.3%
A.J. Erdely sacked by Tyshun Render and Khalil Brooks for a loss of 12 yards to the UAB 15Similar
Q2 2:35
3RD & 20
OWN 15
+14
64.8%
Jarrion Street run for 14 yds to the UAB 29Similar
Q2 1:20
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
65.4%
Kyle Greenwell punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Ty Lee at the MTnSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:4164% → 65%
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
63.7%
Chaton Mobley run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 36Similar
Q2 1:14
2ND & 6
OWN 36
0
64.2%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Tavares ThomasSimilar
Q2 1:14
3RD & 6
OWN 36
0
63.2%
Chaton Mobley run for no gain to the MTnSt 36Similar
Q2 0:33
4TH & 6
OWN 36
0
64.7%
Matt Bonadies punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Andre Wilson at the UAB 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · 1 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
66.1%
Garrett Marino run for 1 yd to the UAB 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0066% → 63%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
65.7%
Chaton Mobley run for no gain to the MTnSt 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
65.4%
Brent Stockstill run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 26Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
64.4%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Patrick SmithSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
63.4%
Matt Bonadies punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Andre Wilson at the UAB 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 13INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q3 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
65.6%
A.J. Erdely pass intercepted Wesley Bush return for 1 yd to the MTnSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:0067% → 66%
Q3 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+13
67.2%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Terelle West for 13 yds to the MTnSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-15
68.4%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, personal foul (Chandler Brewer) to the MTnSt 24Similar
Q3 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-1
67.1%
Chaton Mobley run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 23Similar
Q3 13:27
2ND & 11
OWN 23
-3
66.8%
Ty Lee run for a loss of 3 yards to the MTnSt 20Similar
Q3 13:27
3RD & 14
OWN 20
0
65.5%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Gatlin CaseySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0031% → 30%
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
68.7%
Tyler Johnston III run for 6 yds to the UAB 31Similar
Q3 11:15
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
67.8%
Tyler Johnston III pass incomplete to Donnie LeeSimilar
Q3 11:15
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
69.0%
Tyler Johnston III pass incomplete to Collin LisaSimilar
Q3 11:15
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
69.9%
Kyle Greenwell punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Ty Lee at the MTnSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 16TD
10 plays · 83 yds · 5:5170% → 91%
Q3 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+9
70.1%
Terelle West run for 9 yds to the MTnSt 26Similar
Q3 10:31
2ND & 1
OWN 26
+4
70.8%
Tavares Thomas run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
70.3%
Tavares Thomas run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 32Similar
Q3 10:31
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+26
70.4%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Jimmy Marshall for 26 yds to the UAB 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:31
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
72.3%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Zack Dobson for 3 yds to the UAB 39Similar
Q3 10:31
2ND & 7
OPP 39
-2
72.3%
Brent Stockstill sacked by Tre' Crawford for a loss of 2 yards to the UAB 41Similar
Q3 10:31
3RD & 9
OPP 41
+15
71.1%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Patrick Smith for 15 yds to the UAB 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:31
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+9
72.6%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ty Lee for 9 yds to the UAB 17Similar
Q3 10:31
2ND & 1
OPP 17
+5
72.6%
Terelle West run for 5 yds to the UAB 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
90.6%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Zack Dobson for 12 yds for a TD (Crews Holt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
89.0%
Jarrion Street run for a loss of 5 yards to the UAB 20Similar
Q3 4:40
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
89.2%
Tyler Johnston III pass incomplete to Xavier Ubosi, broken up by Darryl RandolphSimilar
Q3 4:40
3RD & 15
OWN 20
0
89.3%
Tyler Johnston III pass incomplete to Kailon CarterSimilar
Q3 4:40
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
89.4%
Kyle Greenwell punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q3 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
90.4%
Chaton Mobley run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 36Similar
Q3 3:48
2ND & 8
OWN 36
0
90.5%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Chaton Mobley, broken up by Jamell Garcia-WilliamsSimilar
Q3 3:48
3RD & 8
OWN 36
+3
90.2%
Brent Stockstill run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 39Similar
Q3 3:48
4TH & 5
OWN 39
0
89.7%
Matt Bonadies punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Andre Wilson at the UAB 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 2:1310% → 8%
Q3 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
90.5%
A.J. Erdely pass incomplete to Xavier UbosiSimilar
Q3 2:13
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+11
90.7%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Donnie Lee for 11 yds to the UAB 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
90.3%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Kailon Carter for 9 yds to the UAB 36Similar
Q3 2:13
2ND & 1
OWN 36
+2
90.0%
Lucious Stanley run for 2 yds to the UAB 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
90.0%
A.J. Erdely pass incomplete to Xavier UbosiSimilar
Q3 2:13
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+3
90.1%
A.J. Erdely run for 3 yds to the UAB 41Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 41
-11
91.8%
A.J. Erdely sacked by DQ Thomas for a loss of 11 yards to the UAB 27 A.J. Erdely fumbled, recovered by UAB Patrick Nuss , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 21
OWN 27
0
92.5%
Kyle Greenwell punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Ty Lee at the MTnSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 23 yds · 0:0094% → 93%
Q4 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+14
93.6%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ty Lee for 14 yds to the MTnSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
93.9%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Tavares Thomas for 4 yds to the MTnSt 44Similar
Q4 14:12
2ND & 6
OWN 44
0
93.9%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Patrick SmithSimilar
Q4 14:12
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+5
93.8%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Tavares Thomas for 5 yds to the MTnSt 49Similar
Q4 14:12
4TH & 1
OWN 49
+5
93.3%
Matt Bonadies punt for 39 yds , Andre Wilson returns for 5 yds to the UAB 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · -12 yds · 0:006% → 5%
Q4 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
94.2%
A.J. Erdely pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:49
2ND & 10
OWN 17
-4
94.4%
A.J. Erdely sacked by Darius Harris for a loss of 4 yards to the UAB 13Similar
Q4 11:49
3RD & 14
OWN 13
-8
94.4%
A.J. Erdely sacked by Khalil Brooks for a loss of 8 yards to the UAB 5Similar
Q4 11:49
4TH & 22
OWN 5
0
94.7%
Kyle Greenwell punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Ty Lee at the UAB 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 22TD
2 plays · 48 yds · 0:4296% → 99%
Q4 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
95.8%
Chaton Mobley run for 3 yds to the UAB 45Similar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+45
98.8%
Zack Dobson run for 45 yds for a TD (Crews Holt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 23PUNT
10 plays · 7 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.6%
Garrett Marino run for no gain to the UAB 25Similar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
98.6%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Donnie Lee for 5 yds to the UAB 30Similar
Q4 9:30
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+8
98.6%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Xavier Ubosi for 8 yds to the UAB 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
98.5%
A.J. Erdely pass incomplete to Xavier UbosiSimilar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+10
98.5%
ERDELY, A.J. pass incomplete to LISA, Collin, QB hurry by RENDER, Tyshun, PENALTY MT holding (RANDOLPH, D.) 10 yards to the UAB48, 1ST DOWN UAB, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
98.5%
Lucious Stanley run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 49Similar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 7
OPP 49
-10
98.5%
A.J. Erdely sacked by Jahmal Jones for a loss of 10 yards to the UAB 41Similar
Q4 9:30
3RD & 17
OWN 41
-9
98.7%
A.J. Erdely sacked by DQ Thomas for a loss of 9 yards to the UAB 32Similar
Q4 9:30
4TH & 26
OWN 32
0
98.7%
Kyle Greenwell punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Ty Lee at the MTnSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 24PUNT
8 plays · 24 yds · 3:4599% → 100%
Q4 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
99.2%
Maurice Gordon run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 31Similar
Q4 4:49
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+4
99.2%
Maurice Gordon run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 35Similar
Q4 4:49
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+18
99.3%
Maurice Gordon run for 3 yds to the UAB 38 for a 1ST down UAB Penalty, personal foul (Duke Culver) to the UAB 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:49
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-1
99.3%
Maurice Gordon run for a loss of 1 yard to the UAB 48Similar
Q4 4:49
2ND & 11
OPP 48
-4
99.3%
Maurice Gordon run for a loss of 4 yards to the MTnSt 48Similar
Q4 4:49
3RD & 15
OWN 48
+3
99.2%
Kylan Stribling run for 3 yds to the UAB 49Similar
Q4 1:04
4TH & 12
OPP 49
0
99.7%
Matt Bonadies punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 25END OF GAME
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
99.3%
Jarrion Street run for 2 yds to the UAB 22Similar
Q4 0:56
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+6
99.4%
Jarrion Street run for 6 yds to the UAB 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:40
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Zack Dobson for 12 yds for a TD (Crews Holt KICK)
+18
TD · Q2 2:35
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ty Lee for 12 yds for a TD UAB Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined (Crews Holt KICK)
+12.9
KEY PLAY · Q2 7:23
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Patrick Smith for a loss of 2 yards to the UAB 37
+3.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com