Try the model
WKU

Western Kentucky 30 at Louisiana Tech 15

LT
2018 · Week 13 · Nov 24, 2018 · Joe Aillet Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · LT
modelLT aheadWKU aheadconfidence bandkey playLT scoreWKU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDSAFETYTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:58 · TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the WKent 10
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+46.5+23.30−23.3−46.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 5:01: Steven Duncan pass complete to Mik'Quan Deane for 10 yds for a TD (Alex Rinella KICK) — WKU win probability +6.8 pts (now 31%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 12:16: D'Andre Ferby run for 1 yd for a TD (Alex Rinella KICK) — WKU win probability +11.7 pts (now 53%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:43: Israel Tucker run for 19 yds for a TD (Bailey Hale KICK) — LT win probability +8.9 pts (now 49%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  4. FG · Q2 0:00: Bailey Hale 33 yd FG GOOD — LT win probability +5.4 pts (now 53%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:27: D'Andre Ferby run for 36 yds for a TD (Alex Rinella KICK) — WKU win probability +7.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LT made the numbers' call on 7 of 11WKU made the numbers' call on 5 of 10
  1. Q1 9:56WKU 4th & 8 at LT 31, up 7
    Close callWent for it · 26.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.1%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    26.1%
    54% to make
    Punt
    26.0%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:56WKU 4th & 1 at LT 7, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    25.9%−0.3
    91% to make
    Punt
    25.1%−1.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:01LT 4th & 2 at LT 33, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.6%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:54WKU 4th & 3 at WKU 36, up 14
    Close callPunted · 34.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.1%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:24LT 4th & 22 at LT 12, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.2%−2.0
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00WKU 4th & 14 at WKU 47, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.5%−1.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:16LT 4th & 10 at WKU 42, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.6%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    48.6%−1.2
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    49.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:16WKU 4th & 1 at WKU 10, up 23
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.3 ptsPunted · 60.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.7%−2.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:36LT 4th & 12 at WKU 23, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.0%−3.1
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.1%
    70% to make
    Punt
    27.2%−11.8
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:31WKU 4th & 24 at WKU 31, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.4%−5.6
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:53LT 4th & 3 at WKU 3, down 11
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsKicked a field goal · 45.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.7%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.2%−1.5
    93% to make
    Punt
    36.0%−9.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:53WKU 4th & 9 at WKU 26, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.2%−1.7
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.0%
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:26LT 4th & 1 at WKU 1, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.5%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    43.4%−4.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    32.5%−15.0
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:29WKU 4th & 1 at WKU 21, up 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 57.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.9%−1.6
    average punt
  15. Q3 2:49LT 4th & 5 at WKU 33, down 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 37.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.4%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.4%−1.0
    49% to make
    Punt
    34.5%−2.8
    average punt
  16. Q4 13:27WKU 4th & 13 at LT 29, up 8
    Numbers favored field goal by 2.5 ptsWent for it · 72.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.3%−2.5
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    72.8%
    58% to make
    Punt
    64.3%−8.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 13:20LT 4th & 9 at WKU 47, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.7%−0.9
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.6%
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:40WKU 4th & 10 at WKU 26, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.9%−3.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.2%
    average punt
  19. Q4 5:35LT 4th & 11 at LT 36, down 8
    Close callWent for it · 14.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.4%−0.5
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    12.9%
    average punt
  20. Q4 4:27LT 4th & 1 at LT 33, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.5%−0.2
    average punt
  21. Q4 1:05LT 4th & 9 at WKU 14, down 15
    Close callWent for it · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.8%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    3.3%
    84% to make
    Punt
    2.1%−1.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LT made the numbers' call on 1 of 1WKU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 10:03WKU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:01WKU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:16WKU Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:43LT Touchdown, down 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 4:27WKU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WKUDrive 1TD
13 plays · 82 yds · 4:5721% → 24%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
79.3%
Joshua Samuel run for 1 yd to the WKent 19Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 19
0
79.3%
Steven Duncan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 19
+9
79.3%
Steven Duncan pass complete to Quin Jernighan for 9 yds to the WKent 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
79.3%
D'Andre Ferby run for 1 yd to the WKent 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+1
79.3%
Steven Duncan run for 1 yd to the WKent 30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 30
+13
79.3%
Steven Duncan pass complete to Lucky Jackson for 13 yds to the WKent 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
79.3%
Steven Duncan run for 3 yds to the WKent 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 46
-5
79.3%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the WKent 41Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 41
+28
79.3%
Steven Duncan run for 13 yds to the LATECH 46 for a 1ST down LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, personal foul (Jordan Baldwin) to the LaTch 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+11
79.3%
Joshua Samuel run for 11 yds to the LaTch 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
79.3%
Davis Shanley run for 2 yds to the LaTch 18Similar
Q1 10:03
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+18
76.3%
Lucky Jackson run for 18 yds for a TD (Alex Rinella KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 2INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q1 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
76.8%
J'Mar Smith pass intercepted Devon Key return for 4 yds to the LaTch 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 3TD
11 plays · 33 yds · 4:5524% → 31%
Q1 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-2
76.3%
Steven Duncan pass complete to Beanie Bishop for a loss of 2 yards to the LaTch 35Similar
Q1 9:56
2ND & 12
OPP 35
0
76.3%
Steven Duncan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:56
3RD & 12
OPP 35
+4
76.4%
Steven Duncan run for 4 yds to the LaTch 31Similar
Q1 9:56
4TH & 8
OPP 31
+15
76.5%
Steven Duncan pass complete to Lucky Jackson for 15 yds to the LaTch 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
76.3%
Steven Duncan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:56
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+3
76.3%
Steven Duncan pass complete to Kyle Fourtenbary for 3 yds to the LaTch 13Similar
Q1 9:56
3RD & 7
OPP 13
+6
76.3%
Steven Duncan run for 6 yds to the LaTch 7Similar
Q1 9:56
4TH & 1
OPP 7
+2
76.5%
D'Andre Ferby run for 2 yds to the LaTch 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
76.3%
Steven Duncan run for no gain to the LaTch 5Similar
Q1 9:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
76.3%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the LaTch 10Similar
Q1 5:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
69.4%
Steven Duncan pass complete to Mik'Quan Deane for 10 yds for a TD (Alex Rinella KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q1 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
70.9%
Israel Tucker run for 6 yds to the LaTch 31Similar
Q1 5:01
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+1
71.2%
Israel Tucker run for 1 yd to the LaTch 32Similar
Q1 5:01
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+1
71.1%
Israel Tucker run for 1 yd to the LaTch 33Similar
Q1 5:01
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
70.9%
Davan Dyer punt for 38 yds, downed at the WKent 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0033% → 32%
Q1 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-5
67.5%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, false start (Lucky Jackson) to the WKent 24Similar
Q1 2:54
1ST & 15
OWN 24
0
67.7%
Steven Duncan pass incomplete to Mik'Quan DeaneSimilar
Q1 2:54
2ND & 15
OWN 24
0
67.7%
Garland LaFrance run for no gain to the WKent 24Similar
Q1 2:54
3RD & 15
OWN 24
+12
67.9%
Steven Duncan run for 12 yds to the WKent 36Similar
Q1 2:54
4TH & 3
OWN 36
0
67.8%
Alex Rinella punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Cee Jay Powell at the LaTch 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -12 yds · 0:0067% → 66%
Q1 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-10
66.6%
SMITH, J'Mar pass complete to HARDY, Adrian for 11 yards to the LATECH35 (KEY, Devon), PENALTY LATECH holding (DUGAS, O'Shea) 10 yards to the LATECH14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:24
1ST & 20
OWN 14
0
66.5%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Alfred Smith, broken up by Ta'Corian DardenSimilar
Q1 1:24
2ND & 20
OWN 14
0
66.5%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Alfred Smith, broken up by Ta'Corian DardenSimilar
Q1 1:24
3RD & 20
OWN 14
-2
66.3%
J'Mar Smith sacked by Eli Brown for a loss of 2 yards to the LaTch 12Similar
Q1 1:24
4TH & 22
OWN 12
0
66.3%
Davan Dyer punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Drell Greene at the LaTch 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:0037% → 36%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
63.4%
Joshua Samuel run for 4 yds to the LaTch 45Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 45
-8
63.4%
Steven Duncan sacked by Collin Scott and Jaylon Ferguson for a loss of 8 yards to the WKent 47Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 47
0
64.0%
Steven Duncan pass incomplete to Kyle FourtenbarySimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 14
OWN 47
0
64.4%
Alex Rinella punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Cee Jay Powell at the LaTch 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 8SF
1 play · -10 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q2 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-10
61.2%
J'Mar Smith sacked by DeAngelo Malone for a loss of 10 yards for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 9TD
4 plays · 44 yds · 1:1042% → 53%
Q2 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
58.4%
Garland LaFrance run for 7 yds to the LaTch 37Similar
Q2 13:26
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+36
58.3%
Steven Duncan pass complete to Mik'Quan Deane for 36 yds to the LaTch 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
46.6%
D'Andre Ferby run for 1 yd for a TD (Alex Rinella KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 10PUNT
11 plays · 50 yds · 0:0051% → 53%
Q2 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+15
51.3%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Adrian Hardy for 15 yds to the LaTch 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+11
51.7%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Alfred Smith for 11 yds to the LaTch 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
52.0%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to George Scott for 6 yds to the LaTch 40Similar
Q2 12:16
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+8
52.8%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Alfred Smith for 8 yds to the LaTch 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
53.4%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Cee Jay Powell for 9 yds to the WKent 43Similar
Q2 12:16
2ND & 1
OPP 43
+1
53.7%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Cee Jay Powell for 1 yd to the WKent 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
53.5%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Adrian HardySimilar
Q2 12:16
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
53.3%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Cee Jay PowellSimilar
Q2 12:16
3RD & 10
OPP 42
0
53.2%
J'Mar Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:16
4TH & 10
OPP 42
0
52.6%
Davan Dyer punt for 41 yds, downed at the WKent 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0058% → 57%
Q2 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
42.0%
Steven Duncan run for 2 yds to the WKent 3Similar
Q2 9:16
2ND & 8
OWN 3
+5
42.0%
D'Andre Ferby run for 5 yds to the WKent 8Similar
Q2 9:16
3RD & 3
OWN 8
+2
43.0%
Steven Duncan run for 2 yds to the WKent 10Similar
Q2 9:16
4TH & 1
OWN 10
0
43.1%
Alex Rinella punt for 35 yds, downed at the WKent 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 12MISSED FG
7 plays · 22 yds · 2:2446% → 42%
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
46.0%
Israel Tucker run for 3 yds to the WKent 42Similar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+8
45.8%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Alfred Smith for 8 yds to the WKent 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+13
47.2%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Adrian Hardy for 13 yds to the WKent 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
47.4%
J'Mar Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 10
OPP 21
-2
47.2%
J'Mar Smith sacked by Juwuan Jones for a loss of 2 yards to the WKent 23Similar
Q2 7:00
3RD & 12
OPP 23
0
46.4%
J'Mar Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:36
4TH & 12
OPP 23
+40
41.8%
Bailey Hale 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 13INT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
34.1%
Joshua Samuel run for 2 yds to the WKent 25Similar
Q2 4:36
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+5
34.2%
Joshua Samuel run for 5 yds to the WKent 30Similar
Q2 4:36
3RD & 3
OWN 30
+3
35.2%
Joshua Samuel run for 3 yds to the WKent 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-1
34.2%
Steven Duncan run for a loss of 1 yard to the WKent 32Similar
Q2 4:36
2ND & 11
OWN 32
0
34.4%
Steven Duncan pass intercepted Amik Robertson return for no gain to the WKent 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 14TD
3 plays · 40 yds · 0:3238% → 49%
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
38.2%
SMITH, J'Mar pass incomplete to POWELL, Cee Jay, PENALTY WKU roughing passer (CRAY, Roger) 15 yards to the WKU25, 1ST DOWN LATECH, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
39.9%
Israel Tucker run for 6 yds to the WKent 19Similar
Q2 1:43
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+19
48.8%
Israel Tucker run for 19 yds for a TD (Bailey Hale KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 15SF
11 plays · 6 yds · 1:1263% → 57%
Q2 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
37.1%
Steven Duncan pass complete to Lucky Jackson for 2 yds to the WKent 27Similar
Q2 1:43
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
37.1%
Steven Duncan run for 3 yds to the WKent 30Similar
Q2 1:43
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+15
37.6%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, personal foul (Darryl Lewis) to the WKent 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
35.5%
Steven Duncan pass incomplete to Mik'Quan DeaneSimilar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 10
OWN 45
-5
33.8%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the WKent 40Similar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 15
OWN 40
-9
34.2%
Steven Duncan sacked by Amik Robertson for a loss of 9 yards to the WKent 31 Steven Duncan fumbled, recovered by WKent D'Andre Ferby , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 0:49
3RD & 24
OWN 31
0
35.9%
Garland LaFrance run for no gain to the WKent 31Similar
Q2 0:31
4TH & 24
OWN 31
0
43.5%
Alex Rinella punt blocked by Ezekiel Barnett for a SAFETY blocked by Ezekiel Barnett for a SAFETY for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 16FG
6 plays · 48 yds · 0:3144% → 53%
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+32
44.4%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Alfred Smith for 32 yds to the WKent 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
47.1%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+16
47.0%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Adrian Hardy for 16 yds to the WKent 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
47.1%
J'Mar Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+33
52.5%
Bailey Hale 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 17FG
9 plays · 72 yds · 3:0749% → 51%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
49.1%
Israel Tucker run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaTch 24Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+11
49.0%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Adrian Hardy for 11 yds to the LaTch 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+16
49.6%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to George Scott for 16 yds to the WKent 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+45
51.7%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Adrian Hardy for 45 yds to the WKent 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
53.3%
Israel Tucker run for 2 yds to the WKent 2Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
53.3%
Israel Tucker run for a loss of 1 yard to the WKent 3Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
51.8%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Cee Jay Powell, broken up by Juwuan JonesSimilar
Q3 11:53
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
51.3%
Bailey Hale 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0052% → 50%
Q3 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
47.9%
Steven Duncan pass complete to Quin Jernighan for 2 yds to the WKent 27Similar
Q3 11:53
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-1
47.7%
Steven Duncan pass complete to Garland LaFrance for a loss of 1 yard to the WKent 26Similar
Q3 11:53
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
49.1%
Steven Duncan pass incomplete to Mik'Quan DeaneSimilar
Q3 11:53
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
50.2%
Alex Rinella punt for 32 yds, downed at the LaTch 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 19DOWNS
11 plays · 57 yds · 0:0050% → 50%
Q3 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
50.4%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Adrian Hardy for 5 yds to the LaTch 47Similar
Q3 10:26
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+5
51.5%
J'Mar Smith run for 5 yds to the WKent 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
51.9%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Cee Jay Powell for 3 yds to the WKent 45Similar
Q3 10:26
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+5
52.0%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Cee Jay Powell for 5 yds to the WKent 40Similar
Q3 10:26
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+3
51.8%
Israel Tucker run for 3 yds to the WKent 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
52.0%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Adrian HardySimilar
Q3 10:26
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+30
51.9%
Kam McKnight run for 30 yds to the WKent 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
53.6%
Kam McKnight run for 1 yd to the WKent 6Similar
Q3 10:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
53.6%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Adrian Hardy, broken up by DeAndre FarrisSimilar
Q3 10:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
51.8%
J'Mar Smith run for 5 yds to the WKent 1Similar
Q3 10:26
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
50.1%
Kam McKnight run for no gain to the WKent 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:0062% → 56%
Q3 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 0
0
37.8%
PENALTY WKU unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, PENALTY LATECH unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+4
42.4%
D'Andre Ferby run for 4 yds to the WKent 5Similar
Q3 6:29
2ND & 6
OWN 5
+7
42.8%
D'Andre Ferby run for 7 yds to the WKent 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+4
42.0%
D'Andre Ferby run for 4 yds to the WKent 16Similar
Q3 6:29
2ND & 6
OWN 16
0
42.2%
Steven Duncan pass incomplete to Quin JernighanSimilar
Q3 6:29
3RD & 6
OWN 16
+5
43.1%
Steven Duncan pass complete to Quin Jernighan for 5 yds to the WKent 21Similar
Q3 6:29
4TH & 1
OWN 21
0
44.2%
Alex Rinella punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Cee Jay Powell at the LaTch 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 21MISSED FG
6 plays · 28 yds · 1:4240% → 38%
Q3 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+12
40.0%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Adrian Hardy for 12 yds to the WKent 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:31
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+11
42.9%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Cee Jay Powell for 11 yds to the WKent 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:31
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
43.2%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Cee Jay Powell for 5 yds to the WKent 33Similar
Q3 4:31
2ND & 5
OPP 33
0
45.0%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Cee Jay Powell, broken up by Antwon KincadeSimilar
Q3 4:31
3RD & 5
OPP 33
0
42.9%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Alfred SmithSimilar
Q3 2:49
4TH & 5
OPP 33
+50
38.0%
Bailey Hale 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 22DOWNS
12 plays · 38 yds · 4:2266% → 74%
Q3 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
34.3%
Gino Appleberry Jr. run for 6 yds to the WKent 39Similar
Q3 2:49
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+2
32.9%
Steven Duncan run for 2 yds to the WKent 41Similar
Q3 2:49
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+6
33.6%
Joshua Samuel run for 6 yds to the WKent 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+16
32.8%
Joshua Samuel run for 16 yds to the LaTch 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:49
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+7
32.3%
Joshua Samuel run for 7 yds to the LaTch 30Similar
Q3 2:49
2ND & 3
OPP 30
0
31.6%
Lucky Jackson pass incomplete to Kyle FourtenbarySimilar
Q3 2:49
3RD & 3
OPP 30
+4
32.8%
D'Andre Ferby run for 4 yds to the LaTch 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
27.0%
Steven Duncan pass incomplete to Quin JernighanSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 26
-1
27.3%
Steven Duncan run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaTch 27Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 27
-2
28.2%
Steven Duncan sacked by Collin Scott for a loss of 2 yards to the LaTch 29Similar
Q4 13:27
4TH & 13
OPP 29
0
26.4%
Steven Duncan pass incomplete to Mik'Quan DeaneSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 23PUNT
8 plays · 24 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+12
28.1%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Alfred Smith for 12 yds to the LaTch 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
30.8%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Cee Jay Powell for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 13:20
2ND & 1
50
0
32.4%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Alfred Smith for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 13:20
3RD & 1
50
+2
31.8%
Jaqwis Dancy run for 2 yds to the WKent 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
32.9%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Adrian HardySimilar
Q4 13:20
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+1
32.1%
Jaqwis Dancy run for 1 yd to the WKent 47Similar
Q4 13:20
3RD & 9
OPP 47
0
30.8%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Javonte WoodardSimilar
Q4 13:20
4TH & 9
OPP 47
0
27.7%
Davan Dyer punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Drell Greene at the WKent 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 24PUNT
12 plays · 21 yds · 5:1077% → 88%
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+4
23.3%
Joshua Samuel run for 4 yds to the WKent 9Similar
Q4 10:50
2ND & 6
OWN 9
+3
23.8%
Joshua Samuel run for 3 yds to the WKent 12Similar
Q4 10:50
3RD & 3
OWN 12
+4
24.6%
Steven Duncan run for 4 yds to the WKent 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-1
22.7%
Joshua Samuel run for a loss of 1 yard to the WKent 15Similar
Q4 10:50
2ND & 11
OWN 15
+10
23.4%
Joshua Samuel run for 10 yds to the WKent 25Similar
Q4 10:50
3RD & 1
OWN 25
+1
22.2%
D'Andre Ferby run for 1 yd to the WKent 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
22.0%
D'Andre Ferby run for 2 yds to the WKent 28Similar
Q4 10:50
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+1
21.6%
Steven Duncan run for 1 yd to the WKent 29Similar
Q4 5:46
3RD & 7
OWN 29
-3
11.7%
Steven Duncan run for a loss of 3 yards to the WKent 26Similar
Q4 5:40
4TH & 10
OWN 26
0
12.3%
Alex Rinella punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LaTch 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 25DOWNS
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0012% → 11%
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
11.9%
J'Mar Smith run for 6 yds to the LaTch 43Similar
Q4 5:35
2ND & 4
OWN 43
0
13.6%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Cee Jay PowellSimilar
Q4 5:35
3RD & 4
OWN 43
-7
12.6%
J'Mar Smith sacked by Drell Greene for a loss of 7 yards to the LaTch 36Similar
Q4 5:35
4TH & 11
OWN 36
0
10.6%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Cee Jay PowellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 26TD
1 play · 36 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 4:27
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
3.5%
D'Andre Ferby run for 36 yds for a TD (Alex Rinella KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 27DOWNS
17 plays · 47 yds · 3:221% → 1%
Q4 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-15
1.4%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Brandon Durman) to the LaTch 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
1.4%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Cee Jay PowellSimilar
Q4 4:27
2ND & 10
OWN 24
-12
1.4%
SMITH, J'Mar pass complete to SMITH, Alfred for 19 yards to the LATECH43 (KINCADE, Antwon), PENALTY LATECH personal foul (DUGAS, O'Shea) 12 yards to the LATECH12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:27
2ND & 22
OWN 12
-7
1.4%
J'Mar Smith sacked by DeAngelo Malone for a loss of 7 yards to the LaTch 5 J'Mar Smith fumbled, , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 4:27
3RD & 29
OWN 5
+28
1.4%
James Jackson pass complete to Alfred Smith for 28 yds to the LaTch 33Similar
Q4 4:27
4TH & 1
OWN 33
+20
1.4%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Israel Tucker for 20 yds to the WKent 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:27
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
1.5%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Adrian Hardy for 7 yds to the WKent 40Similar
Q4 4:27
2ND & 3
OPP 40
0
1.6%
J'Mar Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:27
3RD & 3
OPP 40
+6
1.6%
James Jackson pass complete to Alfred Smith for 6 yds to the WKent 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:27
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
1.7%
James Jackson pass incomplete to Jaqwis DancySimilar
Q4 4:27
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+19
1.7%
James Jackson pass complete to Javonte Woodard for 4 yds to the WKent 30 for a 1ST down WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, roughing passer (Evan Sayner) to the WKent 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:27
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
1.7%
James Jackson pass incomplete to Adrian HardySimilar
Q4 4:27
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
1.8%
James Jackson pass incomplete to Cee Jay PowellSimilar
Q4 4:27
3RD & 10
OPP 15
+1
1.7%
James Jackson pass complete to Adrian Hardy for 1 yd to the WKent 14Similar
Q4 1:05
4TH & 9
OPP 14
0
1.0%
James Jackson pass incomplete to Cee Jay PowellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 28END OF GAME
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-2
1.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the WKent 12Similar
Q4 0:58
2ND & 12
OWN 12
-2
1.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the WKent 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 12:16
D'Andre Ferby run for 1 yd for a TD (Alex Rinella KICK)
-11.7
TD · Q2 1:43
Israel Tucker run for 19 yds for a TD (Bailey Hale KICK)
+8.9
TD · Q4 4:27
D'Andre Ferby run for 36 yds for a TD (Alex Rinella KICK)
-7.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com