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Win probability · MRSH
modelMRSH aheadUTSA aheadconfidence bandkey playMRSH scoreUTSA score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 1:35 · Yannis Routsas punt for 56 yds , Marcel Williams returns for 11 yds to the Marsh 43
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- KEY PLAY · Q2 9:56: Keion Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the Marsh 3 — UTSA win probability +0.9 pts (now 7%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
- TD · Q2 3:00: Isaiah Green pass complete to Artie Henry III for 8 yds for a TD (Justin Rohrwasser KICK) — MRSH win probability +3.0 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 2:10: Isaiah Green pass incomplete to Tyre Brady, broken up by Cassius Grady — MRSH win probability +1.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 0:03: Timeout MARSHALL, clock 00:03 — UTSA win probability +1.7 pts (now 6%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:00: Justin Rohrwasser 21 yd FG GOOD — MRSH win probability +3.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
MRSH made the numbers' call on 6 of 11UTSA made the numbers' call on 11 of 11
- Q1 15:00UTSA 4th & 10 at UTSA 22, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 4.7% before the snapGo for it4.7%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.8%average punt
- Q1 9:30MRSH 4th & 9 at UTSA 9, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.2% before the snapGo for it94.1%−0.125% to convertField goalTheir call94.1%89% to makePunt93.7%−0.5average punt
- Q1 9:17UTSA 4th & 7 at UTSA 18, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.4% before the snapGo for it5.4%−0.135% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.5%average punt
- Q1 5:33MRSH 4th & 22 at UTSA 27, up 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.0% before the snapGo for it93.7%−0.38% to convertField goalTheir call94.0%62% to makePunt93.4%−0.6average punt
- Q1 5:33UTSA 4th & 3 at UTSA 34, down 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call6.1%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt6.1%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 3:47MRSH 4th & 12 at UTSA 33, up 10Close callPunted · 93.8% before the snapGo for it93.6%−0.123% to convertField goal93.8%49% to makePuntTheir call93.6%−0.1average punt
- Q1 1:35UTSA 4th & 8 at UTSA 12, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.3% before the snapGo for it6.2%−0.232% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.4%average punt
- Q2 12:58MRSH 4th & 6 at UTSA 23, up 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.9% before the snapGo for it92.7%−<0.139% to convertField goalTheir call92.8%70% to makePunt91.4%−1.3average punt
- Q2 12:58UTSA 4th & 17 at UTSA 44, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.8% before the snapGo for it6.6%−0.414% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.0%average punt
- Q2 9:56MRSH 4th & 2 at UTSA 42, up 10Close callPunted · 92.4% before the snapGo for it92.4%57% to convertField goal91.7%−0.730% to makePuntTheir call91.9%−0.5average punt
- Q2 6:28UTSA 4th & 5 at UTSA 27, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.6% before the snapGo for it7.5%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.6%average punt
- Q2 2:25UTSA 4th & 12 at UTSA 20, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.8% before the snapGo for it4.0%−0.621% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call4.5%average punt
- Q2 0:00MRSH 4th & 4 at UTSA 4, up 17Close callKicked a field goal · 95.1% before the snapGo for it95.3%40% to convertField goalTheir call94.9%−0.493% to makePunt92.2%−3.1average punt
- Q3 15:00MRSH 4th & 10 at MRSH 25, up 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.4% before the snapGo for it97.3%−0.528% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.8%average punt
- Q3 14:38UTSA 4th & 15 at UTSA 41, down 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.3% before the snapGo for it1.9%−0.617% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.5%average punt
- Q3 9:32MRSH 4th & 3 at UTSA 8, up 20Close callKicked a field goal · 97.9% before the snapGo for it97.9%47% to convertField goalTheir call97.7%−0.290% to makePunt96.4%−1.5average punt
- Q3 9:32UTSA 4th & 17 at UTSA 22, down 23Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.1% before the snapGo for it1.8%−0.613% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.3%average punt
- Q3 4:46MRSH 4th & 1 at UTSA 1, up 23Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.2%59% to convertField goal97.8%−0.494% to makePunt96.7%−1.5average punt
- Q4 15:00UTSA 4th & 27 at UTSA 29, down 23Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snapGo for it0.8%−0.36% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.1%average punt
- Q4 14:49MRSH 4th & 9 at UTSA 34, up 23Close callPunted · 98.9% before the snapGo for it98.8%−<0.132% to convertField goal98.9%47% to makePuntTheir call98.8%−0.1average punt
- Q4 9:34UTSA 4th & 20 at UTSA 27, down 23Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snapGo for it0.7%−0.29% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.8%average punt
- Q4 0:57MRSH 4th & 14 at MRSH 39, up 23Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.5% before the snapGo for it99.4%−0.118% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.5%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MRSH made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 9:17MRSH Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.6%97% to makeGo for two94.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:00MRSH Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.5%97% to makeGo for two94.5%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUTSADrive 1PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:004% → 4%
MRSHDrive 2FG10 plays · 41 yds · 4:0596% → 95%
MRSHDrive 4TD1 play · 37 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q1 9:17
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+37
95.6%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Tyre Brady for 37 yds for a TD (Justin Rohrwasser KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 5PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:005% → 5%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 6MISSED FG7 plays · 19 yds · 2:3896% → 95%
Q1 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+14
95.5%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Armani Levias for 14 yds to the TexSA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+17
95.5%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Obi Obialo for 17 yds to the TexSA 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:11
2ND & 8
OPP 13
-15
95.5%
GREEN, Isaiah pass incomplete to BRADY, Tyre, PENALTY MAR pass interference (LEVIAS, Armani) 15 yards to the UTSA28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:11
2ND & 23
OPP 28
+1
95.4%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Keion Davis for 1 yd to the TexSA 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 7DOWNS5 plays · 4 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q1 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-10
94.9%
RIVERS, Bryce pass complete to MCNAIR, Marquez for 5 yards to the UTSA32, out-of-bounds (COBB, Omari), PENALTY UTSA holding (OGLE-KELLOGG, T) 10 yards to the UTSA17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:33
1ST & 20
OWN 17
+15
94.9%
Bryce Rivers pass complete to Brenden Brady for 15 yds to the TexSA 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 8PUNT5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q1 3:47
3RD & 5
OPP 26
-7
95.0%
Isaiah Green sacked by Jarrod Carter-McLin and Lorenzo Dantzler for a loss of 7 yards to the TexSA 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 9PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:006% → 5%
Q1 1:35
4TH & 8
OWN 12
+11
94.6%
Yannis Routsas punt for 56 yds , Marcel Williams returns for 11 yds to the Marsh 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 10MISSED FG8 plays · 34 yds · 2:3295% → 94%
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+15
94.4%
GREEN, Isaiah pass incomplete to WILLIAMS, M., PENALTY UTSA pass interference (LEVINE, C.J.) 15 yards to the UTSA40, 1ST DOWN MAR, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:58
4TH & 6
OPP 23
+40
93.8%
Justin Rohrwasser 40 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Tykee Ogle-Kellogg N/A return for no gain to the TexSA 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 11PUNT8 plays · 21 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q2 12:58
3RD & 7
OWN 26
+7
94.1%
Bryce Rivers pass complete to Greg Campbell Jr. for 7 yds to the TexSA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+18
93.8%
Bryce Rivers pass complete to Greg Campbell Jr. for 18 yds to the Marsh 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:58
3RD & 6
OPP 45
-11
93.6%
Bryce Rivers sacked by Ty Tyler for a loss of 11 yards to the TexSA 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 12PUNT7 plays · 53 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q2 9:56
3RD & 6
OWN 9
+41
93.0%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Tyre Brady for 41 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 13PUNT5 plays · 19 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q2 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+14
93.0%
Bryce Rivers pass complete to Greg Campbell Jr. for 14 yds to the TexSA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:28
2ND & 14
OWN 18
+9
93.0%
Bryce Rivers pass complete to Greg Campbell Jr. for 9 yds to the TexSA 27Similar
Q2 6:28
3RD & 5
OWN 27
0
93.0%
Bryce Rivers pass incomplete to Tykee Ogle-Kellogg, broken up by Malik GantSimilar
Q2 6:28
4TH & 5
OWN 27
-12
93.3%
Yannis Routsas punt for 41 yds , Marcel Williams returns for a loss of 12 yards to the Marsh 15 MARSHALL Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the Marsh 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 14TD5 plays · 90 yds · 1:0793% → 96%
Q2 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+32
92.5%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Armani Levias for 32 yds to the Marsh 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+50
93.0%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Tyre Brady for 50 yds to the TexSA 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
93.2%
Isaiah Green pass incomplete to Obi Obialo, broken up by Cassius GradySimilar
Q2 3:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
96.1%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Artie Henry III for 8 yds for a TD (Justin Rohrwasser KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 15PUNT7 plays · -2 yds · 0:355% → 5%
Q2 3:00
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+5
95.5%
Bryce Rivers pass complete to Tykee Ogle-Kellogg for 5 yds to the TexSA 27Similar
Q2 2:30
3RD & 5
OWN 27
-7
95.2%
Bryce Rivers sacked by Juwon Young for a loss of 7 yards to the TexSA 20Similar
Q2 2:25
4TH & 12
OWN 20
+16
95.5%
Yannis Routsas punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Marsh 47 , Marcel Williams returns for 16 yds to the Marsh 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 16FG10 plays · 49 yds · 2:1097% → 98%
MRSHDrive 17PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q3 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
97.8%
Robert LeFevre punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Greg Campbell Jr. at the TexSA 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 18PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 0:002% → 2%
MRSHDrive 19FG7 plays · 76 yds · 3:0398% → 98%
Q3 12:35
2ND & 6
OWN 20
+26
98.3%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Obi Obialo for 26 yds to the Marsh 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+39
98.3%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Marcel Williams for 39 yds to the TexSA 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-2
98.3%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Tyre Brady for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSA 17Similar
Q3 12:35
3RD & 12
OPP 17
+9
98.2%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Xavier Gaines for 9 yds to the TexSA 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 20PUNT5 plays · -7 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 9:32
3RD & 8
OWN 31
-9
98.1%
Bryce Rivers sacked by Omari Cobb for a loss of 9 yards to the TexSA 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 21DOWNS6 plays · 58 yds · 2:4298% → 99%
Q3 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+52
98.3%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Obi Obialo for 45 yds to the MARSHALL 14 for a 1ST down UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, roughing passer (Darryl Godfrey) to the TexSA 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 22PUNT16 plays · 28 yds · 4:411% → 1%
Q3 4:41
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+11
98.6%
Bryce Rivers pass complete to Marquez McNair for 11 yds to the TexSA 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-5
98.5%
UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, false start (Jordan Wright) to the TexSA 7Similar
Q3 4:41
2ND & 10
OWN 12
0
98.5%
Bryce Rivers pass incomplete to Greg Campbell Jr., broken up by Chris JacksonSimilar
Q3 4:41
3RD & 10
OWN 12
+20
98.5%
Bryce Rivers pass complete to Greg Campbell Jr. for 20 yds to the TexSA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+14
98.4%
Bryce Rivers pass complete to Greg Campbell Jr. for 14 yds to the TexSA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-10
98.4%
RIVERS, Bryce pass complete to JONES, Sheldon for 19 yards to the MAR35 (JOHNSON, Nazeeh), PENALTY UTSA holding (DUNLOP, Josh) 10 yards to the UTSA36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:41
1ST & 20
OWN 36
-15
98.5%
RIVERS, Bryce pass incomplete to OGLE-KELLOGG, T, PENALTY UTSA pass interference (OGLE-KELLOGG, T) 15 yards to the UTSA21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:41
1ST & 35
OWN 21
-6
98.5%
Bryce Rivers sacked by Channing Hames for a loss of 6 yards to the TexSA 15Similar
Q3 4:41
2ND & 41
OWN 15
-1
98.5%
RIVERS, Bryce pass complete to JONES, Sheldon for 24 yards to the UTSA39, out-of-bounds, PENALTY UTSA illegal forward pass (RIVERS, Bryce) 1 yards to the UTSA14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:01
3RD & 42
OWN 14
+15
99.2%
Bryce Rivers pass complete to Marquez McNair for 15 yds to the TexSA 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 23PUNT12 plays · 37 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 14:49
3RD & 10
OWN 29
+12
99.2%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Brenden Knox for 12 yds to the Marsh 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:49
3RD & 4
OPP 43
+8
99.3%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Obi Obialo for 8 yds to the TexSA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 9
OPP 34
0
99.3%
Isaiah Green pass incomplete to Marcel Williams, broken up by Dadrian TaylorSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 24PUNT14 plays · 20 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 9:34
3RD & 10
OWN 7
+11
99.4%
Bryce Rivers pass complete to Sheldon Jones for 11 yds to the TexSA 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
99.4%
Bryce Rivers pass incomplete to Tykee Ogle-Kellogg, broken up by Chris JacksonSimilar
Q4 9:34
3RD & 10
OWN 18
+9
99.4%
RIVERS, Bryce pass incomplete to WOOLEN, Tariq, PENALTY MAR pass interference (JOHNSON, Nazeeh) 9 yards to the UTSA27, 1ST DOWN UTSA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
99.4%
Bryce Rivers pass complete to Sheldon Jones for 6 yds to the TexSA 33Similar
Q4 9:34
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+1
99.4%
Bryce Rivers pass complete to Sheldon Jones for 1 yd to the TexSA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-10
99.4%
RIVERS, Bryce pass complete to OGLE-KELLOGG, T for 19 yards to the MAR44, out-of-bounds (DRAYTON, B.), PENALTY UTSA holding (BURFORD, S.) 10 yards to the UTSA27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:34
1ST & 20
OWN 27
+2
99.4%
Bryce Rivers pass complete to Greg Campbell Jr. for 2 yds to the TexSA 29Similar
Q4 9:34
3RD & 18
OWN 29
-2
99.4%
Bryce Rivers pass complete to Gavin Sharp for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSA 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 25PUNT8 plays · 8 yds · 3:54100% → 100%
Q4 0:57
4TH & 14
OWN 39
+25
99.8%
Robert LeFevre punt for 33 yds , Greg Campbell Jr. returns for 25 yds to the Marsh 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 26INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
MRSHDrive 27Uncategorized1 play · -3 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q2 0:00
Justin Rohrwasser 21 yd FG GOOD
+3.3
TD · Q2 3:00
Isaiah Green pass complete to Artie Henry III for 8 yds for a TD (Justin Rohrwasser KICK)
+3
KEY PLAY · Q2 0:03
Timeout MARSHALL, clock 00:03
-1.7