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LT

Louisiana Tech 20 at Southern Miss 21

USM
2018 · Week 12 · Nov 17, 2018 · M. M. Roberts Stadium
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Win probability · USM
modelUSM aheadLT aheadconfidence bandkey playUSM scoreLT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:03 · TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaTch 49
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+23.0+11.50−11.5−23.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:32: Jack Abraham pass complete to Neil McLaurin for 49 yds for a TD (Briggs Bourgeois KICK) — USM win probability +4.8 pts (now 62%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:39: Kam McKnight run for 6 yds for a TD (Bailey Hale KICK) — LT win probability +11.8 pts (now 51%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 13:40: Bailey Hale 23 yd FG GOOD — LT win probability +9.0 pts (now 70%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 6:02: Steven Anderson run for 6 yds for a TD (Briggs Bourgeois KICK) — USM win probability +25.5 pts (now 70%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:03: Timeout SOUTHERN MISS, clock 00:03 — USM win probability +13.6 pts (now 93%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USM made the numbers' call on 4 of 6LT made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00LT 4th & 3 at LT 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.1%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:54LT 4th & 1 at USM 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    39.6%−0.5
    42% to make
    Punt
    39.5%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00USM 4th & 16 at USM 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.2%−0.7
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.0%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:47LT 4th & 13 at LT 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.1%−1.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:32LT 4th & 9 at LT 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.1%−0.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:41USM 4th & 13 at USM 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.5%−1.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:33USM 4th & 2 at USM 30, tied
    Close callPunted · 56.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.4%−0.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:00LT 4th & 6 at USM 6, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 47.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.3%
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.2%−0.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    39.1%−8.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 14:53USM 4th & 7 at USM 47, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.2%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:09LT 4th & 8 at USM 12, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.9%−1.5
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.4%
    86% to make
    Punt
    41.7%−12.8
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:40LT 4th & 5 at USM 6, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 57.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.1%−0.5
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.6%
    91% to make
    Punt
    40.6%−16.0
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:33USM 4th & 1 at midfield, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 40.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    35.6%−5.6
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:02LT 4th & 10 at USM 46, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.2%−0.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    35.5%−1.5
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    37.0%
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:03USM 4th & 6 at LT 47, up 1
    Numbers favored punt by 1.8 ptsWent for it · 89.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.1%−1.8
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    90.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USM made the numbers' call on 3 of 3LT made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 6:54USM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:28LT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:32USM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:39LT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 6:02USM Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.2%−1.9
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LTDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0046% → 46%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
53.6%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Adrian Hardy for 6 yds to the LaTch 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
53.6%
J'Mar Smith run for 2 yds to the LaTch 33Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-1
53.6%
Jaqwis Dancy run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaTch 32Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
53.6%
Davan Dyer punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 2TD
13 plays · 74 yds · 6:1954% → 58%
Q1 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
53.9%
Tate Whatley run for 2 yds to the SoMis 28Similar
Q1 13:13
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+14
53.9%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Quez Watkins for 14 yds to the SoMis 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
54.0%
Tate Whatley run for 1 yd to the SoMis 43Similar
Q1 13:13
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+11
54.0%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Quez Watkins for 11 yds to the LaTch 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+14
54.1%
Darius Maberry run for 14 yds to the LaTch 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
54.1%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jordan Mitchell for 1 yd to the LaTch 31Similar
Q1 13:13
2ND & 9
OPP 31
+12
54.1%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Darius Maberry for 12 yds to the LaTch 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
54.2%
Darius Maberry run for 4 yds to the LaTch 15Similar
Q1 13:13
2ND & 6
OPP 15
0
54.2%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Darius Maberry for no gain to the LaTch 15Similar
Q1 13:13
3RD & 6
OPP 15
+9
54.1%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jay'Shawn Washington for 9 yds to the LaTch 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
54.2%
Tate Whatley run for 5 yds to the LaTch 1Similar
Q1 13:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
54.2%
Tate Whatley run for no gain to the LaTch 1Similar
Q1 6:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
58.1%
Steven Anderson run for 1 yd for a TD (Briggs Bourgeois KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 3TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:2643% → 47%
Q1 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
57.5%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Alfred Smith for 5 yds to the LaTch 30Similar
Q1 6:54
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
57.3%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Teddy Veal for 4 yds to the LaTch 34Similar
Q1 6:54
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+7
57.3%
Israel Tucker run for 7 yds to the LaTch 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+14
57.1%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Adrian Hardy for 14 yds to the SoMis 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-2
56.6%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Teddy Veal for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 47Similar
Q1 6:54
2ND & 12
OPP 47
+5
57.0%
Israel Tucker run for 5 yds to the SoMis 42Similar
Q1 6:54
3RD & 7
OPP 42
+6
56.8%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Teddy Veal for 6 yds to the SoMis 36Similar
Q1 6:54
4TH & 1
OPP 36
+20
57.1%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Peyton Braswell for 20 yds to the SoMis 16 for a 1ST down SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+14
56.2%
Jaqwis Dancy run for 14 yds to the SoMis 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
56.2%
Jaqwis Dancy run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 3Similar
Q1 6:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
56.2%
Kam McKnight run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 5Similar
Q1 1:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
52.7%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Adrian Hardy for 5 yds for a TD (Bailey Hale KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 4PUNT
10 plays · 15 yds · 1:2855% → 56%
Q1 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
55.1%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Trivenskey Mosley for no gain to the SoMis 25Similar
Q1 1:28
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-4
55.0%
Jack Abraham sacked by Ka'Derrion Mason for a loss of 4 yards to the SoMis 21Similar
Q1 1:28
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+15
54.3%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Quez Watkins for 15 yds to the SoMis 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+7
56.3%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Quez Watkins for 7 yds to the SoMis 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
56.6%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for a loss of 5 yards to the SoMis 41Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 41
-1
55.5%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Darius Maberry for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 40Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 16
OWN 40
0
54.8%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Quez Watkins, broken up by Jordan BaldwinSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 16
OWN 40
0
54.2%
Tyler Flathau punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Teddy Veal at the LaTch 21Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
55.8%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jordan Mitchell for 3 yds to the SoMis 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0046% → 44%
Q2 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-3
54.2%
Israel Tucker run for a loss of 3 yards to the LaTch 18Similar
Q2 12:47
2ND & 13
OWN 18
0
54.4%
J'Mar Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:47
3RD & 13
OWN 18
0
55.1%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Adrian HardySimilar
Q2 12:47
4TH & 13
OWN 18
+5
55.6%
Davan Dyer punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LaTch 45 , Quez Watkins returns for 5 yds to the LaTch 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 6TD
3 plays · 45 yds · 1:1358% → 62%
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
57.6%
Trivenskey Mosley run for 3 yds to the LaTch 42Similar
Q2 11:45
2ND & 7
OPP 42
-7
57.6%
Jack Abraham sacked by Jaylon Ferguson for a loss of 7 yards to the LaTch 49 SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 10:32
3RD & 14
OPP 49
+49
62.3%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Neil McLaurin for 49 yds for a TD (Briggs Bourgeois KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0038% → 37%
Q2 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
61.9%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Adrian HardySimilar
Q2 10:32
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
62.1%
Kam McKnight run for 1 yd to the LaTch 26Similar
Q2 10:32
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
62.6%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Adrian HardySimilar
Q2 10:32
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
63.2%
Davan Dyer punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Quez Watkins at the SoMis 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0063% → 61%
Q2 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-3
63.3%
Steven Anderson run for a loss of 3 yards to the SoMis 28Similar
Q2 9:41
2ND & 13
OWN 28
0
63.0%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Neil McLaurinSimilar
Q2 9:41
3RD & 13
OWN 28
0
62.1%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Neil McLaurin, broken up by Amik RobertsonSimilar
Q2 9:41
4TH & 13
OWN 28
+5
61.4%
Tyler Flathau punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LaTch 41 , Teddy Veal returns for 5 yds to the LaTch 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 9TD
9 plays · 59 yds · 4:0938% → 51%
Q2 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
61.9%
Israel Tucker run for 2 yds to the LaTch 43Similar
Q2 8:48
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+9
61.9%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Israel Tucker for 9 yds to the SoMis 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+13
60.8%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Adrian Hardy for 13 yds to the SoMis 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
59.8%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Adrian Hardy for 6 yds to the SoMis 29Similar
Q2 8:48
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+5
59.5%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Adrian Hardy for 5 yds to the SoMis 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
59.5%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Teddy Veal for 2 yds to the SoMis 22Similar
Q2 8:48
2ND & 8
OPP 22
0
59.5%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Teddy Veal, broken up by Racheem BootheSimilar
Q2 8:48
3RD & 8
OPP 22
+16
61.1%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Adrian Hardy for 16 yds to the SoMis 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
49.3%
Kam McKnight run for 6 yds for a TD (Bailey Hale KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0056% → 55%
Q2 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-8
56.2%
Jack Abraham pass complete to De'Michael Harris for a loss of 8 yards to the SoMis 14Similar
Q2 4:33
2ND & 18
OWN 14
+1
55.9%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Trivenskey Mosley for 1 yd to the SoMis 15Similar
Q2 4:33
3RD & 17
OWN 15
+15
54.7%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Quez Watkins for 15 yds to the SoMis 30Similar
Q2 4:33
4TH & 2
OWN 30
+12
54.8%
Tyler Flathau punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LaTch 28 , Teddy Veal returns for 12 yds to the LaTch 42 LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the LaTch 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 11FG
14 plays · 66 yds · 2:1248% → 54%
Q2 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
52.3%
Jaqwis Dancy run for 1 yd to the LaTch 29Similar
Q2 2:12
2ND & 9
OWN 29
0
52.4%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Teddy VealSimilar
Q2 2:12
3RD & 9
OWN 29
+13
53.6%
J'Mar Smith run for 13 yds to the LaTch 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
50.6%
Jaqwis Dancy run for 5 yds to the LaTch 47Similar
Q2 2:12
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+9
50.1%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Adrian Hardy for 9 yds to the SoMis 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
49.7%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Wayne Toussant for 9 yds to the SoMis 35Similar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 1
OPP 0
+17
48.8%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Adrian Hardy for 11 yds to the SoMis 24 for a 1ST down SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, player disqualification (6 Yards) to the SoMis 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
48.5%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Teddy VealSimilar
Q2 0:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
46.7%
J'Mar Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
48.5%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Alfred Smith, broken up by D.Q. ThomasSimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
46.4%
Bailey Hale 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 0:0050% → 49%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+20
49.9%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for 20 yds to the SoMis 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-1
52.7%
Trivenskey Mosley run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 43Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 11
OWN 43
+4
51.0%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Quez Watkins for 4 yds to the SoMis 47Similar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 7
OWN 47
0
51.6%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Quez WatkinsSimilar
Q3 14:53
4TH & 7
OWN 47
0
49.3%
Zac Everett punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Teddy Veal at the LaTch 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 13MISSED FG
17 plays · 75 yds · 8:4452% → 56%
Q3 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
47.9%
Israel Tucker run for 3 yds to the LaTch 16Similar
Q3 12:53
2ND & 7
OWN 16
+1
47.9%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Teddy Veal for 1 yd to the LaTch 17Similar
Q3 12:53
3RD & 6
OWN 17
+16
49.2%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Adrian Hardy for 16 yds to the LaTch 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
46.9%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Alfred Smith for 2 yds to the LaTch 35Similar
Q3 12:53
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+1
46.9%
Kam McKnight run for 1 yd to the LaTch 36Similar
Q3 12:53
3RD & 7
OWN 36
+10
47.6%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Teddy Veal for 10 yds to the LaTch 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
45.4%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Wayne Toussant, broken up by Ky'el HembySimilar
Q3 12:53
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+9
45.7%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Adrian Hardy for 9 yds to the SoMis 45Similar
Q3 12:53
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+2
44.9%
Kam McKnight run for 2 yds to the SoMis 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+15
44.9%
SMITH, J'Mar deep pass incomplete to TOUSSANT, Wayne (SHOWERS, S.), PENALTY USM pass interference (SHOWERS, S.) 15 yards to the USM28, 1ST DOWN LATECH, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
43.7%
J'Mar Smith run for 2 yds to the SoMis 26Similar
Q3 12:53
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+5
43.7%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Teddy Veal for 5 yds to the SoMis 21Similar
Q3 12:53
3RD & 3
OPP 21
+7
44.9%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Israel Tucker for 7 yds to the SoMis 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
43.7%
Israel Tucker run for no gain to the SoMis 14Similar
Q3 12:53
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+2
43.7%
Israel Tucker run for 2 yds to the SoMis 12Similar
Q3 12:53
3RD & 8
OPP 12
0
44.9%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Teddy VealSimilar
Q3 4:09
4TH & 8
OPP 12
+29
43.6%
Bailey Hale 29 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 14FUMBLE
8 plays · 21 yds · 0:0047% → 52%
Q3 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
46.5%
Steven Anderson run for no gain to the SoMis 20Similar
Q3 4:09
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-4
46.3%
Jack Abraham sacked by Jaylon Ferguson for a loss of 4 yards to the SoMis 16Similar
Q3 4:09
3RD & 14
OWN 16
+15
44.3%
ABRAHAM, Jack sideline pass incomplete to JONES, Tim, PENALTY LATECH personal foul (LEWIS, Darryl) 15 yards to the USM31, 1ST DOWN USM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+13
47.1%
Trivenskey Mosley run for 13 yds to the SoMis 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
50.4%
Tate Whatley run for 5 yds to the SoMis 49Similar
Q3 4:09
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+2
51.0%
Tate Whatley run for 2 yds to the LaTch 49Similar
Q3 4:09
3RD & 3
OPP 49
+4
50.5%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jay'Shawn Washington for 4 yds to the LaTch 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:09
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-10
51.7%
Jack Abraham sacked by Connor Taylor for a loss of 10 yards to the SoMis 41 Jack Abraham fumbled, recovered by LaTch Connor Taylor , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 15FG
6 plays · 35 yds · 1:4461% → 70%
Q3 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
39.3%
Israel Tucker run for 3 yds to the SoMis 38Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+27
39.1%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Alfred Smith for 27 yds to the SoMis 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
37.3%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Teddy Veal, broken up by Ty WilliamsSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+5
37.3%
Israel Tucker run for 5 yds to the SoMis 6Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 6
0
39.1%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Adrian HardySimilar
Q4 13:40
4TH & 5
OPP 6
+23
30.1%
Bailey Hale 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 16TD
15 plays · 85 yds · 7:3137% → 70%
Q4 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
36.9%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Jordan MitchellSimilar
Q4 13:33
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+6
36.8%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Quez Watkins for 6 yds to the SoMis 21Similar
Q4 13:33
3RD & 4
OWN 21
+10
35.7%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Quez Watkins for 10 yds to the SoMis 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+10
37.9%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jordan Mitchell for 10 yds to the SoMis 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:33
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
40.7%
Jack Abraham run for 7 yds to the SoMis 48Similar
Q4 13:33
2ND & 3
OWN 48
-1
42.0%
Trivenskey Mosley run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 47Similar
Q4 13:33
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+3
40.6%
Jack Abraham run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 13:33
4TH & 1
50
+5
39.3%
Steven Anderson run for 5 yds to the LaTch 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+28
42.6%
Tate Whatley pass complete to Quez Watkins for 28 yds to the LaTch 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
44.6%
Steven Anderson run for 3 yds to the LaTch 14Similar
Q4 13:33
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+3
44.6%
Tate Whatley pass complete to Neil McLaurin for 3 yds to the LaTch 11Similar
Q4 13:33
3RD & 4
OPP 11
+6
42.3%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Steven Anderson for 6 yds to the LaTch 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
44.6%
Trivenskey Mosley run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaTch 6Similar
Q4 6:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
70.2%
Steven Anderson run for 6 yds for a TD (Briggs Bourgeois KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 29 yds · 0:0040% → 39%
Q4 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
60.1%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Israel Tucker for a loss of 5 yards to the LaTch 20Similar
Q4 6:02
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+1
61.0%
J'Mar Smith run for 1 yd to the LaTch 21Similar
Q4 6:02
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+33
63.0%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Alfred Smith for 33 yds to the SoMis 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
54.4%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Wayne ToussantSimilar
Q4 6:02
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
54.5%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Wayne ToussantSimilar
Q4 6:02
3RD & 10
OPP 46
0
57.3%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Javonte Woodard, broken up by Ernest GunnSimilar
Q4 6:02
4TH & 10
OPP 46
0
61.0%
Davan Dyer punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Quez Watkins at the SoMis 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 18DOWNS
14 plays · 37 yds · 3:5164% → 93%
Q4 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+3
63.5%
Steven Anderson run for 3 yds to the SoMis 17Similar
Q4 3:48
2ND & 7
OWN 17
+15
65.2%
Tate Whatley run for no gain to the SoMis 17 for a 1ST down LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, personal foul (Jaylon Ferguson) to the SoMis 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
66.3%
Steven Anderson run for 1 yd to the SoMis 33Similar
Q4 3:48
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+4
66.1%
Steven Anderson run for 4 yds to the SoMis 37Similar
Q4 2:26
3RD & 5
OWN 37
+12
71.2%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for 12 yds to the SoMis 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
75.2%
Steven Anderson run for 4 yds to the LaTch 47Similar
Q4 1:36
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+1
82.0%
Steven Anderson run for 1 yd to the LaTch 46Similar
Q4 1:36
3RD & 5
OPP 46
+4
81.0%
Steven Anderson run for 4 yds to the LaTch 42Similar
Q4 1:36
4TH & 1
OPP 42
-5
79.6%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the LaTch 47Similar
Q4 0:03
4TH & 6
OPP 47
-2
93.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the LaTch 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:02
Steven Anderson run for 6 yds for a TD (Briggs Bourgeois KICK)
+25.5
KEY PLAY · Q4 0:03
Timeout SOUTHERN MISS, clock 00:03
+13.6
TD · Q2 4:39
Kam McKnight run for 6 yds for a TD (Bailey Hale KICK)
-11.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com