2018 · Week 12 · Nov 17, 2018 · Jerry Richardson Stadium
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Win probability · CLT
modelCLT aheadFIU aheadconfidence bandkey playCLT scoreFIU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 3:38 · Kyle Corbett punt for 56 yds , Maurice Alexander returns for 9 yds to the FlaIn 35 CHARLOTTE Penalty, illegal block (-10 Yards) to the FlaIn 37
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 3:38: Napoleon Maxwell run for 39 yds for a TD (Jose Borregales KICK) — FIU win probability +13.4 pts (now 63%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 4:33: Benny LeMay run for 1 yd for a TD (Jonathan Cruz KICK) — CLT win probability +14.9 pts (now 43%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
- TD · Q4 14:56: James Morgan pass complete to Anthony Jones for 3 yds for a TD (James Morgan pass for Two-Point Conversion) — FIU win probability +18.5 pts (now 89%) (top driver: FIU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 9:33: Benny LeMay run for 6 yds for a TD (Jonathan Cruz KICK) — CLT win probability +15.3 pts (now 33%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
- TD · Q4 1:14: Hasaan Klugh pass complete to Chris Phillips for 12 yds for a TD FLORIDA INTL Penalty, (2 Yards) to the FlaIn 1 (Jonathan Cruz KICK) — CLT win probability +22.3 pts (now 26%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
CLT made the numbers' call on 5 of 7FIU made the numbers' call on 2 of 6
- Q1 8:49FIU 4th & 5 at CLT 8, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.2% before the snapGo for it55.1%−<0.134% to convertField goalTheir call55.1%90% to makePunt54.1%−1.0average punt
- Q2 15:00CLT 4th & 3 at FIU 17, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call44.1%51% to convertField goal43.9%−0.280% to makePunt41.1%−3.0average punt
- Q2 12:03FIU 4th & 4 at CLT 11, up 3Close callKicked a field goal · 57.1% before the snapGo for it56.9%45% to convertField goalTheir call56.7%−0.287% to makePunt52.8%−4.1average punt
- Q2 9:37CLT 4th & 1 at FIU 1, down 6Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call40.8%59% to convertField goal38.4%−2.494% to makePunt32.4%−8.3average punt
- Q2 9:37FIU 4th & 8 at CLT 42, down 1Close callPunted · 51.6% before the snapGo for it51.5%34% to convertField goal51.0%−0.530% to makePuntTheir call51.5%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 7:26CLT 4th & 5 at CLT 15, up 1Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.9% before the snapGo for it48.3%−0.640% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call48.8%average punt
- Q2 3:38CLT 4th & 9 at CLT 26, down 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.3% before the snapGo for it36.3%−1.530% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call37.8%average punt
- Q2 1:25FIU 4th & 9 at CLT 46, up 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.6% before the snapGo for it64.1%−0.132% to convertField goal63.4%−0.723% to makePuntTheir call64.1%average punt
- Q3 12:49CLT 4th & 3 at CLT 31, down 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.8% before the snapGo for it27.4%−0.352% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call27.7%average punt
- Q3 11:20FIU 4th & 3 at FIU 43, up 13Close callPunted · 77.4% before the snapGo for it78.4%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call78.0%−0.4average punt
- Q4 7:04CLT 4th & 7 at CLT 38, down 14Close callWent for it · 6.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call6.3%−0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt6.4%average punt
- Q4 2:04CLT 4th & 2 at FIU 24, down 14Close callWent for it · 4.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call3.6%−0.657% to convertField goal4.1%68% to makePunt2.3%−1.9average punt
- Q4 1:05FIU 4th & 6 at CLT 30, up 7Numbers favored field goal by 1.5 ptsPunted · 89.9% before the snapGo for it89.6%−0.340% to convertField goal89.9%56% to makePuntTheir call88.4%−1.5average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CLT made the numbers' call on 5 of 5FIU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
- Q1 12:49CLT Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call42.5%97% to makeGo for two42.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:37CLT Touchdown, tied before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call46.8%97% to makeGo for two46.7%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:38FIU Touchdown, up 5 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call61.7%97% to makeGo for two61.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:54FIU Touchdown, up 12 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call74.5%97% to makeGo for two74.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:33CLT Touchdown, down 7 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call31.1%97% to makeGo for two30.9%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 14:56FIU Touchdown, up 12 before the tryClose callWent for two · convertedKick83.1%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call82.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 9:33CLT Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call19.8%97% to makeGo for two19.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 7:04FIU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.4%97% to makeGo for two91.4%−0.945% to convert
- Q4 1:14CLT Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call9.2%97% to makeGo for two7.0%−2.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartCLTDrive 1TD6 plays · 75 yds · 2:1146% → 47%
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+11
45.8%
Hasaan Klugh pass complete to Workpeh Kofa for 11 yds to the Charl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+45
45.8%
Benny LeMay run for 31 yds to the CHARLOTTE 28 for a 1ST down FLORIDA INTL Penalty, personal foul (Dorian Hall) to the FlaIn 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 2FG12 plays · 67 yds · 4:0053% → 52%
Q1 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
47.1%
James Morgan pass complete to Sterling Palmer for 21 yds to the FlaIn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:49
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+8
47.0%
James Morgan pass complete to Maurice Alexander for 8 yds to the Charl 46Similar
Q1 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+10
46.9%
James Morgan pass complete to Maurice Alexander for 10 yds to the Charl 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:49
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+10
46.7%
James Morgan pass complete to Bryce Singleton for 10 yds to the Charl 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:49
3RD & 5
OPP 8
0
46.9%
James Morgan pass incomplete to Maurice Alexander, broken up by Ed RolleSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 3FUMBLE TD8 plays · 36 yds · 3:1648% → 48%
Q1 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
47.8%
Hasaan Klugh pass incomplete to Workpeh Kofa, broken up by Richard DamesSimilar
Q1 5:33
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+61
47.8%
Ishod Finger run for a loss of 2 yards Ishod Finger fumbled, forced by Teair Tart, recovered by FlaIn Sage Lewis , return for 61 yds (Jose Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 4DOWNS13 plays · 75 yds · 5:2946% → 49%
FIUDrive 5FG7 plays · 72 yds · 2:5253% → 57%
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+54
47.0%
James Morgan pass complete to Austin Maloney for 54 yds to the CHARLOTTE 29 for a 1ST down CHARLOTTE Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+8
45.1%
James Morgan pass complete to Bryce Singleton for 8 yds to the Charl 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 6TD6 plays · 75 yds · 2:2645% → 54%
Q2 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+67
44.7%
Hasaan Klugh pass complete to Victor Tucker for 67 yds to the FlaIn 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 7PUNT7 plays · 33 yds · 0:0048% → 48%
Q2 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
51.9%
James Morgan pass complete to Bryce Singleton for 17 yds to the FlaIn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+14
50.3%
James Morgan pass complete to Shemar Thornton for 14 yds to the Charl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
49.6%
James Morgan pass complete to D'Vonte Price for 1 yd to the Charl 43Similar
Q2 9:37
4TH & 8
OPP 42
0
51.8%
Stone Wilson punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Mark Quattlebaum at the Charl 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 8PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0055% → 53%
Q2 7:26
4TH & 5
OWN 15
0
53.1%
Kyle Corbett punt for 40 yds , Maurice Alexander returns for no gain to the FlaIn 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 9TD4 plays · 55 yds · 1:5148% → 63%
CLTDrive 10PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0043% → 41%
Q2 3:38
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+9
41.0%
Kyle Corbett punt for 56 yds , Maurice Alexander returns for 9 yds to the FlaIn 35 CHARLOTTE Penalty, illegal block (-10 Yards) to the FlaIn 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 11PUNT8 plays · 17 yds · 0:3562% → 64%
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
38.4%
James Morgan pass complete to Bryce Singleton for 3 yds to the FlaIn 40Similar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+13
36.3%
James Morgan pass complete to Shemar Thornton for 13 yds to the Charl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:52
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+1
36.4%
James Morgan pass complete to Napoleon Maxwell for 1 yd to the Charl 46Similar
Q2 1:25
4TH & 9
OPP 46
0
36.2%
Stone Wilson punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Mark Quattlebaum at the Charl 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 12END OF HALF8 plays · 0 yds · 0:4938% → 39%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 13TD5 plays · 79 yds · 1:5962% → 77%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+41
38.4%
James Morgan pass complete to Austin Maloney for 41 yds to the Charl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 4
OPP 32
+26
35.1%
Maurice Alexander pass complete to Shemar Thornton for 26 yds to the Charl 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
23.2%
James Morgan pass complete to Anthony Jones for 6 yds for a TD (Jose Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 14PUNT6 plays · 7 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q3 12:49
3RD & 7
OWN 27
+5
27.6%
FLORIDA INTL Penalty, Defensive offside (Teair Tart) to the Charl 32Similar
Q3 12:49
4TH & 3
OWN 31
+25
28.2%
Kyle Corbett punt for 54 yds , Maurice Alexander returns for 25 yds to the CHARLOTTE 44 FLORIDA INTL Penalty, personal foul (Noah Curtis) to the FlaIn 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 15PUNT5 plays · 18 yds · 0:0077% → 76%
Q3 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
23.0%
James Morgan pass complete to Maurice Alexander for 11 yds to the FlaIn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
22.3%
James Morgan pass complete to Maurice Alexander for a loss of 1 yard to the FlaIn 35Similar
Q3 11:20
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+8
23.0%
James Morgan pass complete to Maurice Alexander for 8 yds to the FlaIn 43Similar
Q3 11:20
4TH & 3
OWN 43
0
23.9%
Stone Wilson punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Mark Quattlebaum at the Charl 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 16TD9 plays · 90 yds · 4:3526% → 43%
FIUDrive 17TD11 plays · 75 yds · 4:3767% → 89%
Q3 4:33
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
33.0%
James Morgan pass complete to CJ Worton for 5 yds to the FlaIn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:33
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+8
30.8%
James Morgan pass complete to Shemar Thornton for 8 yds to the FlaIn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
11.0%
James Morgan pass complete to Anthony Jones for 3 yds for a TD (James Morgan pass for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 18TD12 plays · 75 yds · 5:2315% → 33%
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
50
+17
16.7%
Hasaan Klugh pass complete to Chris Phillips for 17 yds to the CHARLOTTE 33 for a 1ST down FLORIDA INTL Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 19TD6 plays · 75 yds · 2:2979% → 95%
Q4 9:33
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
21.4%
James Morgan pass complete to Austin Maloney for 12 yds to the FlaIn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
19.7%
James Morgan pass complete to Christian Irving for 6 yds to the FlaIn 43Similar
Q4 9:33
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+5
18.7%
CHARLOTTE Penalty, Defensive offside (Tyler Fain) to the FlaIn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 20TD19 plays · 75 yds · 5:507% → 26%
Q4 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
6.7%
Hasaan Klugh sacked by Teair Tart for a loss of 7 yards to the Charl 18Similar
Q4 7:04
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+11
6.5%
Hasaan Klugh pass complete to Benny LeMay for 11 yds to the Charl 29Similar
Q4 7:04
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+6
6.7%
FLORIDA INTL Penalty, Defensive offside (Jermaine Sheriff) to the Charl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-10
6.9%
KLUGH, Hasaan rush for 10 yards to the CHA45, PENALTY CHA holding 10 yards to the CHA25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:04
1ST & 20
OWN 25
+9
6.6%
Hasaan Klugh pass complete to Tyler Ringwood for 9 yds to the Charl 34Similar
Q4 7:04
2ND & 11
OWN 34
0
6.8%
Hasaan Klugh pass incomplete to Mark Quattlebaum, broken up by Stantley Thomas-Oliver IIISimilar
Q4 7:04
3RD & 11
OWN 34
+4
6.5%
Hasaan Klugh pass complete to Benny LeMay for 4 yds to the Charl 38Similar
Q4 7:04
2ND & 3
OPP 43
-3
8.2%
Hasaan Klugh sacked by Kevin Oliver and Jermaine Sheriff for a loss of 3 yards to the FlaIn 46Similar
Q4 7:04
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+14
7.6%
Hasaan Klugh pass complete to Workpeh Kofa for 14 yds to the FlaIn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:04
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
8.6%
Hasaan Klugh pass complete to Workpeh Kofa for 5 yds to the FlaIn 27Similar
Q4 7:04
2ND & 5
OPP 27
-6
8.7%
Hasaan Klugh sacked by Kevin Oliver for a loss of 6 yards to the FlaIn 33Similar
Q4 2:04
3RD & 11
OPP 33
+9
3.4%
Hasaan Klugh pass complete to R.J. Tyler for 9 yds to the FlaIn 24Similar
Q4 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+7
3.8%
Hasaan Klugh pass complete to Victor Tucker for 7 yds to the FlaIn 12Similar
Q4 1:14
2ND & 3
OPP 12
+12
26.2%
Hasaan Klugh pass complete to Chris Phillips for 12 yds for a TD FLORIDA INTL Penalty, (2 Yards) to the FlaIn 1 (Jonathan Cruz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FIUDrive 21PUNT6 plays · 4 yds · 0:0795% → 94%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:14
Hasaan Klugh pass complete to Chris Phillips for 12 yds for a TD FLORIDA INTL Penalty, (2 Yards) to the FlaIn 1 (Jonathan Cruz KICK)
+22.3
TD · Q4 14:56
James Morgan pass complete to Anthony Jones for 3 yds for a TD (James Morgan pass for Two-Point Conversion)
-18.5
TD · Q4 9:33
Benny LeMay run for 6 yds for a TD (Jonathan Cruz KICK)
+15.3