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USM

Southern Miss 23 at UAB 26

UAB
2018 · Week 11 · Nov 10, 2018 · Legion Field
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Win probability · UAB
modelUAB aheadUSM aheadconfidence bandkey playUAB scoreUSM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDFGFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 15:00 · TEAM punt, downed at the SoMis 16
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+33.5+16.80−16.8−33.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 87Pregame prior+17.9Home team on offense−5.9Score differential−2.2Garbage-time factor−2.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.4Time remaining−0.7
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 5:23: Parker Shaunfield 38 yd FG GOOD — USM win probability +8.6 pts (now 42%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:40: Tyler Johnston III run for 1 yd for a TD (Nick Vogel KICK) — UAB win probability +7.8 pts (now 66%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:47: Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Kailon Carter for 35 yds for a TD (Nick Vogel KICK) — UAB win probability +12.9 pts (now 82%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 1:49: Nick Vogel 30 yd FG GOOD — UAB win probability +5.9 pts (now 85%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:09: Steven Anderson run for 2 yds for a TD (Parker Shaunfield KICK) SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Offensive offside ( Yards) declined — USM win probability +29.7 pts (now 49%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UAB made the numbers' call on 7 of 9USM made the numbers' call on 11 of 11
  1. Q1 15:00UAB 4th & 3 at UAB 9, tied
    Close callPunted · 81.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.1%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:54USM 4th & 5 at USM 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.5%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:18UAB 4th & 3 at UAB 36, tied
    Close callPunted · 80.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:00USM 4th & 11 at UAB 16, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.5%−0.7
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.2%
    81% to make
    Punt
    27.0%−3.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:53UAB 4th & 9 at UAB 37, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.6%−0.4
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:06USM 4th & 21 at USM 1, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.5%−2.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:58UAB 4th & 11 at USM 37, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.6%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.7%
    40% to make
    Punt
    63.6%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:23USM 4th & 9 at UAB 21, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.6%−0.5
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.1%
    74% to make
    Punt
    37.0%−3.1
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00USM 4th & 24 at USM 11, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.3%−4.3
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:35UAB 4th & 9 at USM 15, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.0%−1.5
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.4%
    83% to make
    Punt
    51.0%−8.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:28USM 4th & 7 at USM 37, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.0%−0.9
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:47USM 4th & 25 at USM 10, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.0%−2.3
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.3%
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:49UAB 4th & 13 at USM 13, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.7%−2.9
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.5%
    85% to make
    Punt
    64.0%−10.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 15:00USM 4th & 18 at USM 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.5%−3.9
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.5%
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:09UAB 4th & 6 at UAB 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.0%−4.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:19USM 4th & 10 at USM 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.8%−3.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.4%
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:10UAB 4th & 13 at UAB 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.2%−9.2
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.5%
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:44USM 4th & 20 at USM 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.8%−13.6
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.4%
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:49UAB 4th & 10 at UAB 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.2%−2.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.8%
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:02USM 4th & 12 at USM 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.9%−13.3
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UAB made the numbers' call on 2 of 2USM made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 6:09USM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:40UAB Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 8:47UAB Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 7:09USM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.0%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UABDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+6
83.2%
Spencer Brown run for 6 yds to the UAB 8Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 8
-1
83.2%
Spencer Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the UAB 7Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 7
+2
83.2%
Tyler Johnston III run for 2 yds to the UAB 9Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 9
0
83.2%
Kyle Greenwell punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0018% → 17%
Q1 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
82.5%
Steven Anderson run for 2 yds to the SoMis 44Similar
Q1 12:54
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+3
82.5%
Tate Whatley pass complete to Tim Jones for 3 yds to the SoMis 47Similar
Q1 12:54
3RD & 5
OWN 47
0
82.5%
Tate Whatley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:54
4TH & 5
OWN 47
0
82.6%
Zac Everett punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UAB 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q1 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
82.2%
Tyler Johnston III run for 4 yds to the UAB 22Similar
Q1 11:18
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+7
82.2%
Spencer Brown run for 7 yds to the UAB 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-5
82.2%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Kendall Parham for a loss of 5 yards to the UAB 24Similar
Q1 11:18
2ND & 15
OWN 24
+10
82.2%
Andre Wilson run for 10 yds to the UAB 34Similar
Q1 11:18
3RD & 5
OWN 34
+2
82.2%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Collin Lisa for 2 yds to the UAB 36Similar
Q1 11:18
4TH & 3
OWN 36
0
82.1%
Kyle Greenwell punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 4TD
5 plays · 78 yds · 1:5419% → 22%
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
81.1%
Tate Whatley pass complete to De'Michael Harris for 8 yds to the SoMis 30Similar
Q1 8:03
2ND & 2
OWN 30
+47
80.8%
Tate Whatley pass complete to Quez Watkins for 47 yds to the UAB 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:51
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
80.0%
Tate Whatley run for 4 yds to the UAB 19Similar
Q1 6:09
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+19
77.7%
Tate Whatley pass complete to Quez Watkins for 19 yds for a TD UAB Penalty, illegal participation ( Yards) declined (Parker Shaunfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 5INT
9 plays · 50 yds · 3:2979% → 76%
Q1 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
78.5%
Spencer Brown run for no gain to the UAB 25Similar
Q1 6:09
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+35
78.4%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Kailon Carter for 35 yds to the SoMis 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
79.2%
Tyler Johnston III run for 1 yd to the SoMis 39Similar
Q1 6:09
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+20
79.2%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Xavier Ubosi for 20 yds to the SoMis 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
79.5%
Spencer Brown run for 2 yds to the SoMis 17Similar
Q1 6:09
2ND & 8
OPP 17
-8
79.5%
Tyler Johnston III run for a loss of 8 yards to the SoMis 25 Tyler Johnston III fumbled,Similar
Q1 2:40
3RD & 16
OPP 25
+2
76.3%
Tyler Johnston III pass intercepted Picasso Nelson Jr. return for 2 yds to the SoMis 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 6FG
14 plays · 69 yds · 4:3124% → 29%
Q1 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
75.7%
Tate Whatley pass complete to Quez Watkins for 3 yds to the SoMis 18Similar
Q1 2:31
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+5
75.7%
Darius Maberry run for 5 yds to the SoMis 23Similar
Q1 2:31
3RD & 2
OWN 23
+2
75.7%
Darius Maberry run for 2 yds to the SoMis 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
75.6%
Tate Whatley run for 7 yds to the SoMis 32Similar
Q1 2:31
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+15
75.2%
WHATLEY, Tate pass incomplete to MITCHELL, J. (CULVER, Duke), PENALTY UAB pass interference (CULVER, Duke) 15 yards to the USM47, 1ST DOWN USM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
74.9%
Darius Maberry run for 9 yds to the UAB 44Similar
Q1 2:31
2ND & 1
OPP 44
+2
74.6%
Darius Maberry run for 2 yds to the UAB 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
72.5%
Tate Whatley pass incomplete to Quez WatkinsSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+12
72.6%
Tim Jones run for 12 yds to the UAB 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+15
72.4%
UAB Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the UAB 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
72.3%
Darius Maberry run for 2 yds to the UAB 13Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 13
-3
72.3%
Tate Whatley pass complete to Steven Anderson for a loss of 3 yards to the UAB 16Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 16
0
72.7%
Tate Whatley pass incomplete to Quez WatkinsSimilar
Q2 13:00
4TH & 11
OPP 16
+33
70.9%
Parker Shaunfield 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0070% → 69%
Q2 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
70.2%
Spencer Brown run for 1 yd to the UAB 37Similar
Q2 12:53
2ND & 9
OWN 37
0
70.1%
Tyler Johnston III pass incomplete to Collin LisaSimilar
Q2 12:53
3RD & 9
OWN 37
0
69.7%
Tyler Johnston III pass incomplete to Andre WilsonSimilar
Q2 12:53
4TH & 9
OWN 37
0
69.3%
Kyle Greenwell punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Quez Watkins at the SoMis 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -24 yds · 0:0030% → 29%
Q2 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-13
70.3%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, personal foul (Ty Williams) to the SoMis 12Similar
Q2 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
70.4%
Trivenskey Mosley run for 2 yds to the SoMis 14Similar
Q2 12:06
2ND & 8
OWN 14
0
70.6%
Tate Whatley pass incomplete to Quez WatkinsSimilar
Q2 12:06
3RD & 8
OWN 14
-13
71.0%
Tate Whatley sacked by Tre' Crawford for a loss of 13 yards to the SoMis 1 SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, intentional grounding (Tate Whatley) to the SoMis 1Similar
Q2 12:06
4TH & 21
OWN 1
0
71.4%
Zac Everett punt for 35 yds, downed at the SoMis 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 9MISSED FG
5 plays · -1 yds · 2:1570% → 67%
Q2 11:13
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-1
69.6%
Spencer Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 37Similar
Q2 11:13
2ND & 11
OPP 37
-5
69.5%
Tyler Johnston III sacked by Jacques Turner for a loss of 5 yards to the SoMis 42Similar
Q2 9:59
3RD & 16
OPP 42
+5
68.1%
Tyler Johnston III run for 5 yds to the SoMis 37Similar
Q2 8:58
4TH & 11
OPP 37
+55
67.1%
Nick Vogel 54 yd FG MISSED , Quez Watkins return for 55 yds to the UAB 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 10FG
9 plays · 24 yds · 3:3534% → 42%
Q2 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
66.5%
Tate Whatley pass incomplete to Tim JonesSimilar
Q2 8:58
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+4
66.8%
Steven Anderson run for 4 yds to the UAB 41Similar
Q2 8:58
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+9
66.8%
Tate Whatley pass complete to Darius Maberry for 9 yds to the UAB 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
66.2%
Tate Whatley pass complete to Quez Watkins for 9 yds to the UAB 23Similar
Q2 8:58
2ND & 1
OPP 23
+1
66.1%
Tate Whatley run for 1 yd to the UAB 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
66.1%
Tate Whatley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:58
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+1
66.3%
Quez Watkins run for 1 yd to the UAB 21Similar
Q2 8:58
3RD & 9
OPP 21
0
66.6%
Tate Whatley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:23
4TH & 9
OPP 21
+38
58.0%
Parker Shaunfield 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 11TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:4360% → 66%
Q2 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
59.5%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Kailon Carter for 11 yds to the UAB 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
60.1%
Lucious Stanley run for 3 yds to the UAB 39Similar
Q2 5:23
2ND & 7
OWN 39
-1
60.3%
Lucious Stanley run for a loss of 1 yard to the UAB 38Similar
Q2 5:23
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+20
59.4%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Xavier Ubosi for 20 yds to the SoMis 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
61.5%
Tyler Johnston III run for 7 yds to the SoMis 35Similar
Q2 5:23
2ND & 3
OPP 35
+15
62.9%
Tyler Johnston III run for no gain to the SoMis 35 for a 1ST down SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the SoMis 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
62.9%
Tyler Johnston III run for no gain to the SoMis 20Similar
Q2 5:23
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+11
62.9%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Kailon Carter for 11 yds to the SoMis 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
62.9%
Spencer Brown run for 8 yds to the SoMis 1Similar
Q2 1:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
58.4%
Spencer Brown run for no gain to the SoMis 1Similar
Q2 0:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
66.2%
Tyler Johnston III run for 1 yd for a TD (Nick Vogel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:0040% → 40%
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
60.3%
Steven Anderson run for 1 yd to the SoMis 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · -14 yds · 0:0040% → 38%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
59.7%
Tate Whatley run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 24Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-13
60.4%
Tate Whatley sacked by Quindarius Thagard for a loss of 13 yards to the SoMis 11 SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, intentional grounding (Tate Whatley) to the SoMis 11Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 24
OWN 11
0
61.5%
Tate Whatley pass incomplete to Quez Watkins, broken up by Brontae HarrisSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 24
OWN 11
0
62.2%
TEAM punt, downed at the SoMis 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 14FG
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:3368% → 66%
Q3 14:08
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
67.6%
Spencer Brown run for 2 yds to the SoMis 14Similar
Q3 14:08
2ND & 8
OPP 14
-1
67.6%
Spencer Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 15Similar
Q3 14:08
3RD & 9
OPP 15
0
66.0%
Tyler Johnston III pass incomplete to Kailon CarterSimilar
Q3 12:35
4TH & 9
OPP 15
+32
67.6%
Nick Vogel 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
Q3 12:35
1ST & GOAL
OWN 35
-15
65.7%
UAB Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the UAB 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:0036% → 34%
Q3 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-5
64.1%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, delay of game (Tate Whatley) to the SoMis 29Similar
Q3 12:28
1ST & 15
OWN 29
-3
64.8%
Tate Whatley run for a loss of 3 yards to the SoMis 26Similar
Q3 12:28
2ND & 18
OWN 26
+11
65.2%
Tate Whatley pass complete to Tim Jones for 11 yds to the SoMis 37Similar
Q3 12:28
3RD & 7
OWN 37
0
64.4%
Tate Whatley pass incomplete to Tim JonesSimilar
Q3 12:28
4TH & 7
OWN 37
0
66.1%
Tyler Flathau punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Andre Wilson at the UAB 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 16TD
6 plays · 72 yds · 2:1665% → 82%
Q3 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+25
65.4%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Andre Wilson for 25 yds to the SoMis 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:03
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
68.5%
Tyler Johnston III pass incomplete to Xavier UbosiSimilar
Q3 11:03
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+5
68.3%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Logan Scott for 5 yds to the SoMis 42Similar
Q3 11:03
3RD & 5
OPP 42
+5
68.2%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Defensive offside (Jacques Turner) to the SoMis 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:03
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
68.6%
Spencer Brown run for 2 yds to the SoMis 35Similar
Q3 8:47
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+35
81.5%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Kailon Carter for 35 yds for a TD (Nick Vogel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · -15 yds · 0:0022% → 20%
Q3 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
78.3%
Darius Maberry run for 1 yd to the SoMis 26Similar
Q3 8:47
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-6
78.3%
Tate Whatley sacked by Anthony Rush for a loss of 6 yards to the SoMis 20Similar
Q3 8:47
3RD & 15
OWN 20
0
79.5%
Tate Whatley pass incomplete to Darius Maberry, broken up by Chris WoolbrightSimilar
Q3 8:47
4TH & 15
OWN 20
-10
80.1%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-10 Yards) to the SoMis 10Similar
Q3 8:47
4TH & 25
OWN 10
0
80.1%
Tyler Flathau punt for 33 yds, downed at the SoMis 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 18FG
10 plays · 30 yds · 5:2581% → 85%
Q3 7:14
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
80.6%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Hayden Pittman for 6 yds to the SoMis 37Similar
Q3 7:14
2ND & 4
OPP 37
0
80.6%
Spencer Brown run for no gain to the SoMis 37Similar
Q3 7:14
3RD & 4
OPP 37
+6
80.3%
Tyler Johnston III run for 6 yds to the SoMis 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:14
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
81.5%
Spencer Brown run for 2 yds to the SoMis 29Similar
Q3 7:14
2ND & 8
OPP 29
0
81.5%
Tyler Johnston III pass incomplete to Kailon Carter, broken up by Ty WilliamsSimilar
Q3 7:14
3RD & 8
OPP 29
+19
80.4%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Andre Wilson for 19 yds to the SoMis 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
81.5%
Spencer Brown run for 2 yds to the SoMis 8Similar
Q3 7:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-7
81.5%
Tyler Johnston III sacked by Racheem Boothe for a loss of 7 yards to the SoMis 15Similar
Q3 7:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 15
+2
79.1%
Spencer Brown run for 2 yds to the SoMis 13Similar
Q3 1:49
4TH & GOAL
OPP 13
+30
85.0%
Nick Vogel 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 2 yds · 1:4918% → 15%
Q3 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
81.7%
Tate Whatley pass complete to De'Michael Harris for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 24Similar
Q3 1:49
2ND & 11
OWN 24
-1
81.9%
Tate Whatley pass complete to Jordan Mitchell for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 23Similar
Q3 1:49
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+12
82.9%
Tate Whatley pass complete to Quez Watkins for 12 yds to the SoMis 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-10
82.4%
Tate Whatley sacked by Tre' Crawford for a loss of 10 yards to the SoMis 25Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 20
OWN 25
+2
83.4%
Tate Whatley run for 2 yds to the SoMis 27Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 18
OWN 27
0
84.2%
Tate Whatley pass incomplete to Quez WatkinsSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 18
OWN 27
0
84.8%
Tyler Flathau punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UAB 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 20INT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0088% → 89%
Q4 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+8
88.4%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Hayden Pittman for 8 yds to the UAB 38Similar
Q4 13:41
2ND & 2
OWN 38
0
89.5%
Andre Wilson run for no gain to the UAB 38Similar
Q4 13:41
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+8
88.8%
Spencer Brown run for 8 yds to the UAB 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-10
89.5%
BROWN, Spencer rush for no gain to the UAB46 (HEMBY, Ky'el), PENALTY UAB holding (LEE, Donnie) 10 yards to the UAB36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:41
1ST & 20
OWN 36
0
88.5%
Tyler Johnston III pass intercepted Ky'el Hemby return for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 21TD
13 plays · 50 yds · 4:1018% → 49%
Q4 11:19
1ST & 10
50
0
82.2%
Neil McLaurin pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:19
2ND & 10
50
-5
83.1%
Tate Whatley sacked by Jamell Garcia-Williams for a loss of 5 yards to the SoMis 45Similar
Q4 11:19
3RD & 15
OWN 45
+17
85.5%
Tate Whatley pass complete to Jordan Mitchell for 17 yds to the UAB 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:19
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-8
82.2%
Darius Maberry run for 2 yds to the UAB 36 SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the UAB 46Similar
Q4 11:19
1ST & 18
OPP 46
+15
83.4%
WHATLEY, Tate pass incomplete to MITCHELL, J., PENALTY UAB roughing passer (RUSH, Anthony) 15 yards to the UAB31, 1ST DOWN USM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:19
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
80.8%
Tate Whatley pass incomplete to Tim JonesSimilar
Q4 11:19
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+1
80.8%
Tim Jones run for 1 yd to the UAB 30Similar
Q4 11:19
3RD & 9
OPP 30
+15
82.5%
UAB Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the UAB 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:19
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
80.5%
Tate Whatley pass incomplete to Quez WatkinsSimilar
Q4 11:19
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+10
80.5%
Tate Whatley run for 10 yds to the UAB 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
80.5%
Steven Anderson run for no gain to the UAB 5Similar
Q4 11:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
80.5%
Tate Whatley run for 3 yds to the UAB 2Similar
Q4 7:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
50.8%
Steven Anderson run for 2 yds for a TD (Parker Shaunfield KICK) SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Offensive offside ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0063% → 60%
Q4 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
62.9%
Spencer Brown run for 4 yds to the UAB 31Similar
Q4 7:09
2ND & 6
OWN 31
0
63.5%
Spencer Brown run for no gain to the UAB 31Similar
Q4 7:09
3RD & 6
OWN 31
0
61.4%
Tyler Johnston III pass incomplete to Kailon CarterSimilar
Q4 7:09
4TH & 6
OWN 31
0
59.6%
Kyle Greenwell punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SoMis 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:1849% → 44%
Q4 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
51.3%
Tate Whatley pass incomplete to Darius MaberrySimilar
Q4 5:37
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
52.4%
Tate Whatley pass incomplete to Jordan Mitchell, broken up by Duke CulverSimilar
Q4 5:25
3RD & 10
OWN 40
0
55.7%
Tate Whatley pass incomplete to Quez WatkinsSimilar
Q4 5:19
4TH & 10
OWN 40
0
55.6%
Zac Everett punt for 40 yds, downed at the UAB 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 12 yds · 0:0063% → 60%
Q4 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
62.6%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Xavier Ubosi for 15 yds to the UAB 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
63.6%
Tyler Johnston III pass incomplete to Xavier Ubosi, broken up by Ky'el HembySimilar
Q4 5:10
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-3
63.5%
Tyler Johnston III run for a loss of 3 yards to the UAB 32Similar
Q4 5:10
3RD & 13
OWN 32
0
60.7%
Tyler Johnston III pass incomplete to Collin LisaSimilar
Q4 5:10
4TH & 13
OWN 32
0
59.7%
Kyle Greenwell punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SoMis 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · -10 yds · 0:0050% → 43%
Q4 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
49.7%
Tate Whatley pass incomplete to Tim Jones, broken up by Jamell Garcia-WilliamsSimilar
Q4 3:44
2ND & 10
OWN 38
-10
50.1%
Tate Whatley sacked by Tre' Crawford for a loss of 10 yards to the SoMis 28Similar
Q4 3:44
3RD & 20
OWN 28
0
55.2%
Tate Whatley pass incomplete to Tim Jones, broken up by Kristopher MollSimilar
Q4 3:44
4TH & 20
OWN 28
0
56.9%
Tyler Flathau punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Andre Wilson at the UAB 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0065% → 59%
Q4 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
65.0%
Tyler Johnston III run for no gain to the UAB 40Similar
Q4 2:49
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
63.5%
Tyler Johnston III pass incomplete to Kailon CarterSimilar
Q4 2:49
3RD & 10
OWN 40
0
61.9%
Tyler Johnston III pass incomplete to Kailon CarterSimilar
Q4 2:49
4TH & 10
OWN 40
0
59.1%
Kyle Greenwell punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Quez Watkins at the SoMis 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 27PUNT
9 plays · 13 yds · 0:4449% → 44%
Q4 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
50.8%
Tate Whatley pass incomplete to Tim JonesSimilar
Q4 1:46
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+2
51.7%
Tate Whatley run for 2 yds to the SoMis 18Similar
Q4 1:36
3RD & 8
OWN 18
+13
54.5%
Tate Whatley pass complete to Quez Watkins for 13 yds to the SoMis 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
50.3%
Tate Whatley pass complete to Tim Jones for 8 yds to the SoMis 39Similar
Q4 1:36
2ND & 2
OWN 39
-10
45.7%
Tate Whatley sacked by Zachary Williams for a loss of 10 yards to the SoMis 29Similar
Q4 1:02
3RD & 12
OWN 29
0
53.4%
Tate Whatley pass incomplete to Quez WatkinsSimilar
Q4 1:02
4TH & 12
OWN 29
0
56.0%
Tyler Flathau punt for 40 yds , Andre Wilson returns for no gain to the UAB 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 28INT
5 plays · 16 yds · 0:1759% → 62%
Q4 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
59.4%
Tyler Johnston III run for 5 yds to the UAB 36Similar
Q4 0:46
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+4
62.7%
Tyler Johnston III run for 4 yds to the UAB 40Similar
Q4 0:46
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+7
62.0%
Spencer Brown run for 7 yds to the UAB 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+42
62.0%
Tyler Johnston III pass intercepted Ty Williams return for 42 yds to the UAB 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 29INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q4 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
39.9%
Tate Whatley pass incomplete to Quez Watkins, broken up by D.A. WilliamsSimilar
Q4 0:16
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
40.1%
Tate Whatley pass intercepted, touchback. Mar'Sean Diggs return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 30END OF HALF
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0056% → 56%
Q4 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
56.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the UAB 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+43.9
TD · Q4 7:09
Steven Anderson run for 2 yds for a TD (Parker Shaunfield KICK) SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Offensive offside ( Yards) declined
-29.7
TD · Q3 8:47
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Kailon Carter for 35 yds for a TD (Nick Vogel KICK)
+12.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com