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MTSU

Middle Tennessee 48 at UTEP 32

UTEP
2018 · Week 11 · Nov 10, 2018 · Sun Bowl
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Win probability · UTEP
modelUTEP aheadMTSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUTEP scoreMTSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:37 · Mitchell Crawford punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Reed Blankenship at the MTnSt 33
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+54.5+27.30−27.3−54.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 34Home team on offense−3.5Pregame prior−30.8Score differential−1.7Garbage-time factor−0.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:12: Quardraiz Wadley run for 7 yds for a TD (Jason Filley KICK) — UTEP win probability +5.2 pts (now 24%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  2. TD · Q2 5:21: Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ty Lee for 25 yds for a TD (Crews Holt PAT MISSED) — MTSU win probability +2.8 pts (now 83%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 0:00: Jason Filley 50 yd FG GOOD — UTEP win probability +3.3 pts (now 14%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 10:48: Chaton Mobley run for 2 yds for a TD (Crews Holt KICK) — MTSU win probability +6.6 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:25: Quardraiz Wadley run for 9 yds for a TD Timeout MIDDLE TENN, clock 12:25 (Kai Locksley pass to David Lucero for Two-Point Conversion) — UTEP win probability +9.5 pts (now 12%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UTEP made the numbers' call on 6 of 8MTSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
  1. Q1 9:01UTEP 4th & 13 at UTEP 17, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.8%−0.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:36MTSU 4th & 8 at MTSU 48, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.5%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:37UTEP 4th & 14 at UTEP 27, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.6%−0.8
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:10MTSU 4th & 20 at MTSU 39, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.7%−1.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00MTSU 4th & 10 at UTEP 46, up 14
    Close callWent for it · 81.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.0%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    80.6%−0.8
    23% to make
    Punt
    81.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:58MTSU 4th & 3 at UTEP 23, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 76.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.3%−0.3
    70% to make
    Punt
    73.4%−3.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:58UTEP 4th & 6 at UTEP 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.2%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:06MTSU 4th & 1 at UTEP 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 77.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    77.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    76.0%−1.5
    54% to make
    Punt
    75.3%−2.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:59UTEP 4th & 1 at UTEP 48, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    13.2%−1.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:12MTSU 4th & 3 at UTEP 38, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.4%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    86.9%−1.5
    38% to make
    Punt
    86.9%−1.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:36UTEP 4th & 7 at MTSU 16, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.3%−0.5
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    4.8%
    81% to make
    Punt
    0.6%−4.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:36MTSU 4th & 11 at UTEP 45, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.1%−0.3
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    95.9%−0.4
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    96.4%
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:46UTEP 4th & 2 at UTEP 18, down 24
    Close callPunted · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.2%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 15:00MTSU 4th & 2 at UTEP 40, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    97.2%−0.3
    34% to make
    Punt
    97.2%−0.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 15:00MTSU 4th & 12 at midfield, up 24
    Close callWent for it · 97.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.5%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    97.6%
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:30UTEP 4th & 4 at MTSU 46, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    2.7%−0.3
    23% to make
    Punt
    2.9%−0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:39MTSU 4th & 7 at MTSU 11, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.8%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.9%
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:13UTEP 4th & 18 at UTEP 43, down 16
    Close callWent for it · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.8%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.0%
    average punt
  19. Q4 3:00MTSU 4th & 7 at UTEP 32, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.9%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    96.9%−<0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    96.5%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UTEP made the numbers' call on 1 of 4MTSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 11:46MTSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:06MTSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:12UTEP Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:21MTSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    81.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 10:48MTSU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 12:25UTEP Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    5.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    4.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 10:10MTSU Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    98.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    98.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 9:02MTSU Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Close callKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    99.8%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 6:44UTEP Touchdown, down 24 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    1.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    1.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 3:30UTEP Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    2.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    2.1%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MTSUDrive 1TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:1484% → 83%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
16.4%
Tavares Thomas run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
16.4%
Brent Stockstill pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+9
16.4%
Brent Stockstill run for 9 yds to the MTnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+26
16.4%
Zack Dobson run for 26 yds to the UTEP 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
16.4%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Gatlin Casey for 4 yds to the UTEP 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+13
16.4%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ty Lee for 13 yds to the UTEP 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
16.4%
Chaton Mobley run for 3 yds to the UTEP 18Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 18
+5
16.4%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Terelle West for 5 yds to the UTEP 13Similar
Q1 11:46
3RD & 2
OPP 13
+13
17.1%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Tavares Thomas for 13 yds for a TD (Crews Holt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 2FUMBLE
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q1 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
17.4%
Kai Locksley pass complete to Keynan Foster for 3 yds Keynan Foster fumbled, forced by O.J. Johnson, recovered by MTnSt Jahmal JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 3TD
6 plays · 40 yds · 2:2583% → 83%
Q1 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
17.2%
Brent Stockstill run for 3 yds to the UTEP 37Similar
Q1 11:31
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+4
17.1%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ty Lee for 4 yds to the UTEP 33Similar
Q1 11:31
3RD & 3
OPP 33
+4
17.2%
Brent Stockstill run for 4 yds to the UTEP 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
17.1%
Chaton Mobley run for no gain to the UTEP 29Similar
Q1 11:31
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+28
17.1%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ty Lee for 28 yds to the UTEP 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
16.6%
Tavares Thomas run for 1 yd for a TD (Crews Holt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q1 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
16.9%
Kai Locksley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:01
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+1
16.8%
Quardraiz Wadley run for 1 yd to the UTEP 21Similar
Q1 9:01
3RD & 9
OWN 21
-4
16.8%
Kai Locksley sacked by Rosheem Collins for a loss of 4 yards to the UTEP 17Similar
Q1 9:01
4TH & 13
OWN 17
0
16.8%
Mitchell Crawford punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MTnSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q1 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
16.1%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Tavares Thomas, broken up by Michael LewisSimilar
Q1 7:36
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+2
16.1%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ty Lee for 2 yds to the MTnSt 48Similar
Q1 7:36
3RD & 8
OWN 48
0
16.2%
Brent Stockstill pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:36
4TH & 8
OWN 48
0
16.3%
Matt Bonadies punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q1 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
16.9%
Brandon Jones run for 3 yds to the UTEP 23Similar
Q1 6:37
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+3
17.0%
Quardraiz Wadley run for 3 yds to the UTEP 26Similar
Q1 6:37
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+5
16.9%
Quardraiz Wadley run for 5 yds to the UTEP 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-5
17.0%
Quardraiz Wadley run for a loss of 5 yards to the UTEP 26Similar
Q1 6:37
2ND & 15
OWN 26
+1
16.9%
Quardraiz Wadley run for 1 yd to the UTEP 27Similar
Q1 6:37
3RD & 14
OWN 27
0
16.8%
Brandon Jones pass incomplete to Tre'Shon WolfSimilar
Q1 6:37
4TH & 14
OWN 27
0
16.8%
Mitchell Crawford punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Reed Blankenship at the MTnSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
16.2%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Zack Dobson for 4 yds to the MTnSt 37Similar
Q1 3:10
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+12
16.1%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Tavares Thomas for 12 yds to the MTnSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-14
16.0%
Terelle West run for 1 yd to the 50 yard line MIDDLE TENN Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the MTnSt 35Similar
Q1 3:10
2ND & 24
OWN 35
0
16.3%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Gatlin CaseySimilar
Q1 3:10
3RD & 24
OWN 35
+4
16.5%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Luke Shiflett for 4 yds to the MTnSt 39Similar
Q1 3:10
4TH & 20
OWN 39
+21
16.5%
Matt Bonadies punt for 42 yds , Terry Juniel returns for 21 yds to the UTEP 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 8INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q1 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
17.2%
Kai Locksley pass intercepted O.J. Johnson return for no gain to the UTEP 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 9DOWNS
6 plays · 0 yds · 1:0784% → 84%
Q1 1:07
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
15.8%
Chaton Mobley run for no gain to the UTEP 43 Chaton Mobley fumbled, forced by Jamar Smith, recovered by MTnSt Ty LeeSimilar
Q1 1:07
2ND & 7
OPP 43
-5
15.8%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, false start (Tavares Thomas) to the UTEP 48Similar
Q1 0:07
2ND & 12
OPP 48
+2
16.1%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Tavares Thomas for 2 yds to the UTEP 46Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 46
0
16.1%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Gatlin Casey, broken up by Nik NeedhamSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 10
OPP 46
0
16.4%
Luke Shiflett run for no gain to the UTEP 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 10TD
6 plays · 54 yds · 2:3918% → 24%
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
17.8%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, personal foul (Tyshun Render) to the MTnSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
17.9%
Treyvon Hughes run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 37Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+10
17.9%
Treyvon Hughes run for 10 yds to the MTnSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
18.2%
Treyvon Hughes run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 26Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+19
18.2%
Kai Locksley pass complete to Josh Weeks for 19 yds to the MTnSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
23.5%
Quardraiz Wadley run for 7 yds for a TD (Jason Filley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 11MISSED FG
8 plays · 52 yds · 3:1479% → 79%
Q2 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+34
21.0%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ty Lee for 34 yds to the UTEP 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
20.0%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Tavares Thomas for 4 yds to the UTEP 37Similar
Q2 12:12
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+7
19.9%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Tavares Thomas for 7 yds to the UTEP 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
19.9%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Terelle WestSimilar
Q2 12:12
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+4
19.8%
Terelle West run for 4 yds to the UTEP 26Similar
Q2 12:12
3RD & 6
OPP 26
+3
20.0%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Gatlin Casey for 3 yds to the UTEP 23Similar
Q2 8:58
4TH & 3
OPP 23
+40
21.3%
Crews Holt 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0022% → 21%
Q2 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
22.1%
Treyvon Hughes run for 4 yds to the UTEP 27Similar
Q2 8:58
2ND & 6
OWN 27
0
22.3%
Kai Locksley pass incomplete to Josh Weeks, broken up by Reed BlankenshipSimilar
Q2 8:58
3RD & 6
OWN 27
0
21.8%
Kai Locksley pass incomplete to Keynan FosterSimilar
Q2 8:58
4TH & 6
OWN 27
+28
21.3%
Mitchell Crawford punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Reed Blankenship at the MIDDLETENN 30 UTEP Penalty, kick catching interference (-15 Yards) to the MTnSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 13TD
7 plays · 55 yds · 2:4580% → 83%
Q2 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
20.2%
Reed Blankenship run for 15 yds to the UTEP 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:06
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
19.9%
Chaton Mobley run for no gain to the UTEP 40Similar
Q2 8:06
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+9
19.9%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Gatlin Casey for 9 yds to the UTEP 31Similar
Q2 8:06
3RD & 1
OPP 31
0
19.9%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Gatlin CaseySimilar
Q2 8:06
4TH & 1
OPP 31
+2
20.6%
Tavares Thomas run for 2 yds to the UTEP 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:06
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
19.7%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ty Lee for 4 yds to the UTEP 25Similar
Q2 5:21
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+25
16.9%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ty Lee for 25 yds for a TD (Crews Holt PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 14FG
5 plays · 14 yds · 0:1612% → 14%
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
11.7%
Kai Locksley pass complete to Terry Juniel for 8 yds to the MTnSt 39Similar
Q2 0:08
2ND & 2
OPP 39
+6
11.0%
Brandon Jones pass complete to Erik Brown for 6 yds to the MTnSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+50
14.4%
Jason Filley 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 15DOWNS
7 plays · 27 yds · 1:5512% → 13%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+21
12.4%
Quardraiz Wadley run for 21 yds to the UTEP 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
13.3%
Quardraiz Wadley run for 5 yds to the UTEP 44Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 5
OWN 44
0
13.6%
Kai Locksley pass incomplete to Alan Busey, broken up by Khalil BrooksSimilar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+4
13.4%
Quardraiz Wadley run for 4 yds to the UTEP 48Similar
Q3 12:59
4TH & 1
OWN 48
-3
12.7%
Quardraiz Wadley run for a loss of 3 yards to the UTEP 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 16TD
6 plays · 45 yds · 2:0690% → 96%
Q3 12:54
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
10.1%
Brent Stockstill run for 3 yds to the UTEP 42Similar
Q3 12:54
2ND & 7
OPP 42
0
10.2%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Gatlin Casey, broken up by Michael LewisSimilar
Q3 12:54
3RD & 7
OPP 42
+4
10.3%
Chaton Mobley run for 4 yds to the UTEP 38Similar
Q3 11:12
4TH & 3
OPP 38
+36
10.2%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ty Lee for 36 yds to the UTEP 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
3.6%
Chaton Mobley run for 2 yds for a TD (Crews Holt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 17MISSED FG
10 plays · 59 yds · 3:125% → 4%
Q3 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
5.4%
Kai Locksley pass complete to David Lucero for 20 yds to the UTEP 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
5.8%
Joshua Fields run for 8 yds to the MTnSt 47Similar
Q3 10:48
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+2
6.2%
Joshua Fields run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
6.0%
Kai Locksley pass complete to David Lucero for 2 yds to the MTnSt 43Similar
Q3 10:48
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+24
6.0%
Kai Locksley pass complete to Josh Weeks for 24 yds to the MTnSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
6.4%
Kai Locksley pass incomplete to Josh WeeksSimilar
Q3 10:48
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+3
6.4%
Joshua Fields run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 16Similar
Q3 10:48
3RD & 7
OPP 16
0
6.3%
Kai Locksley pass incomplete to Keynan FosterSimilar
Q3 7:36
4TH & 7
OPP 16
+34
4.3%
Jason Filley 34 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 18PUNT
9 plays · 35 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q3 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
2.8%
Maurice Gordon run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 24Similar
Q3 7:36
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+6
2.8%
Chaton Mobley run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+14
2.8%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Zack Dobson for 14 yds to the MTnSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
2.6%
Tavares Thomas run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 7:36
2ND & 4
50
+6
2.6%
Chaton Mobley run for 6 yds to the UTEP 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
2.7%
Chaton Mobley run for 3 yds to the UTEP 41Similar
Q3 7:36
2ND & 7
OPP 41
-4
2.7%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Terelle West for a loss of 4 yards to the UTEP 45Similar
Q3 7:36
3RD & 11
OPP 45
0
2.7%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Gatlin CaseySimilar
Q3 7:36
4TH & 11
OPP 45
0
2.9%
Matt Bonadies punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Terry Juniel at the UTEP 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:263% → 3%
Q3 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
3.1%
Kai Locksley pass incomplete to Erik BrownSimilar
Q3 3:12
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+2
3.1%
Treyvon Hughes run for 2 yds to the UTEP 12Similar
Q3 3:12
3RD & 8
OWN 12
+6
3.1%
Kai Locksley pass complete to Tre'Shon Wolf for 6 yds to the UTEP 18Similar
Q3 1:46
4TH & 2
OWN 18
0
2.5%
Mitchell Crawford punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UTEP 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 20FUMBLE
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:3799% → 98%
Q3 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
1.5%
Maurice Gordon run for 2 yds to the UTEP 46Similar
Q3 1:37
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+7
1.5%
Chaton Mobley run for 7 yds to the UTEP 39Similar
Q3 1:37
3RD & 1
OPP 39
-1
1.4%
Brent Stockstill sacked by Trace Mascorro for a loss of 1 yard to the UTEP 40Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 40
-10
1.5%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Gatlin Casey for no gain to the MTnSt 40 MIDDLE TENN Penalty, Offensive holding (Chaton Mobley) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 12
50
0
1.6%
TEAM run for no gain to the UTEP 48 TEAM fumbled, recovered by UTEP James TupouSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 21TD
6 plays · 52 yds · 2:052% → 12%
Q4 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
2.2%
Kai Locksley pass incomplete to Erik BrownSimilar
Q4 14:30
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+6
2.2%
Quardraiz Wadley run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 46Similar
Q4 14:30
3RD & 4
OPP 46
0
2.3%
Kai Locksley pass incomplete to Terry JunielSimilar
Q4 14:30
4TH & 4
OPP 46
+37
2.2%
Kai Locksley pass complete to David Lucero for 37 yds to the MTnSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
2.5%
Quardraiz Wadley run for no gain to the MTnSt 9Similar
Q4 12:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
12.1%
Quardraiz Wadley run for 9 yds for a TD Timeout MIDDLE TENN, clock 12:25 (Kai Locksley pass to David Lucero for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 22TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:1596% → 97%
Q4 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
3.9%
Chaton Mobley run for 10 yds to the MTnSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
3.8%
Chaton Mobley run for no gain to the MTnSt 35Similar
Q4 12:25
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+5
3.8%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ty Lee for 5 yds to the MTnSt 40Similar
Q4 10:10
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+60
2.9%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Gatlin Casey for 60 yds for a TD (C. Mobley Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 23INT TD
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:572% → 0%
Q4 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
1.6%
Joshua Fields run for 1 yd to the UTEP 36Similar
Q4 9:02
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+75
0.1%
Kai Locksley pass intercepted for a TD Wesley Bush return for 75 yds for a TD (Crews Holt PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 24TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:180% → 1%
Q4 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
0.1%
Kai Locksley pass complete to Keynan Foster for 13 yds to the UTEP 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
0.1%
Kai Locksley pass complete to Josh Weeks for 8 yds to the UTEP 46Similar
Q4 9:02
2ND & 2
OWN 46
0
0.1%
Kai Locksley pass incomplete to Erik BrownSimilar
Q4 9:02
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+46
0.1%
Quardraiz Wadley run for 46 yds to the MTnSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
0.1%
Kai Locksley pass complete to Terry Juniel for 1 yd to the MTnSt 7 for a 1ST down MIDDLE TENN Penalty, face mask (3 yards) (Darryl Randolph) to the MTnSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
1.3%
Kai Locksley pass complete to Erik Brown for 4 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
2.3%
Maurice Gordon run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 10Similar
Q4 6:39
2ND & 8
OWN 10
0
1.9%
Maurice Gordon run for no gain to the MTnSt 10Similar
Q4 6:39
3RD & 8
OWN 10
+1
1.9%
Maurice Gordon run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 11Similar
Q4 6:39
4TH & 7
OWN 11
0
1.9%
Matt Bonadies punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Terry Juniel at the MTnSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 26TD
8 plays · 49 yds · 1:401% → 3%
Q4 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
0.8%
Brandon Jones pass incomplete to Erik BrownSimilar
Q4 5:10
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
0.8%
Brandon Jones pass incomplete to Tre'Shon WolfSimilar
Q4 5:10
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+20
0.8%
Brandon Jones pass complete to Keynan Foster for 20 yds to the MTnSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
1.0%
Brandon Jones pass incomplete to Keynan FosterSimilar
Q4 5:10
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+20
0.9%
Brandon Jones pass complete to Josh Weeks for 20 yds to the MTnSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
1.0%
Brandon Jones pass incomplete to Terry Juniel, broken up by Gregory Grate Jr.Similar
Q4 5:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
1.0%
Brandon Jones pass incomplete to Terry JunielSimilar
Q4 3:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
3.1%
Brandon Jones pass complete to Terry Juniel for 9 yds for a TD (Brandon Jones pass to David Lucero for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 28DOWNS
5 plays · -16 yds · 0:123% → 1%
Q4 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
2.6%
Kai Locksley pass incomplete to Keynan Foster, broken up by Khalil BrooksSimilar
Q4 3:25
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-8
2.6%
Kai Locksley sacked by DQ Thomas for a loss of 8 yards to the UTEP 43Similar
Q4 3:13
3RD & 18
OWN 43
0
1.3%
Kai Locksley pass incomplete to Keynan Foster, broken up by Darryl RandolphSimilar
Q4 3:13
4TH & 18
OWN 43
-8
1.3%
Kai Locksley sacked by Trae Philpots for a loss of 8 yards to the UTEP 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 29DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0098% → 97%
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
2.5%
Zack Dobson run for no gain to the UTEP 35Similar
Q4 3:00
2ND & 10
OPP 35
-2
2.6%
Chaton Mobley run for a loss of 2 yards to the UTEP 37Similar
Q4 3:00
3RD & 12
OPP 37
+5
2.6%
Chaton Mobley run for 5 yds to the UTEP 32Similar
Q4 3:00
4TH & 7
OPP 32
+6
3.0%
Chaton Mobley run for 6 yds to the UTEP 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 30END OF GAME
1 play · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
1.0%
Joshua Fields run for no gain to the UTEP 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:25
Quardraiz Wadley run for 9 yds for a TD Timeout MIDDLE TENN, clock 12:25 (Kai Locksley pass to David Lucero for Two-Point Conversion)
+9.5
TD · Q3 10:48
Chaton Mobley run for 2 yds for a TD (Crews Holt KICK)
-6.6
TD · Q2 12:12
Quardraiz Wadley run for 7 yds for a TD (Jason Filley KICK)
+5.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com