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Win probability · UAB
modelUAB aheadUTSA aheadconfidence bandkey playUAB scoreUTSA score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 8:29 · TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 26
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- FG · Q1 5:24: Jared Sackett 37 yd FG GOOD — UTSA win probability +1.0 pts (now 7%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
- TD · Q1 4:41: Andre Wilson run for 50 yds for a TD, (Nick Vogel KICK) — UAB win probability +1.3 pts (now 94%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
- TD · Q2 13:02: Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Xavier Ubosi for 31 yds for a TD, (Nick Vogel KICK) — UAB win probability +1.0 pts (now 96%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
- TD · Q2 12:00: Spencer Brown run for 4 yds for a TD, (Nick Vogel KICK) — UAB win probability +2.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
- FG · Q2 5:51: Nick Vogel 51 yd FG GOOD — UAB win probability +0.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UAB made the numbers' call on 4 of 4UTSA made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
- Q1 12:22UTSA 4th & 8 at UTSA 27, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.9% before the snapGo for it8.9%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.0%average punt
- Q1 5:24UTSA 4th & 5 at UAB 19, down 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 8.9% before the snapGo for it8.8%−0.140% to convertField goalTheir call8.9%77% to makePunt7.7%−1.2average punt
- Q1 3:29UTSA 4th & 4 at UAB 39, down 18Close callPunted · 7.8% before the snapGo for it7.9%48% to convertField goal7.5%−0.336% to makePuntTheir call7.6%−0.3average punt
- Q2 13:02UTSA 4th & 13 at UTSA 22, down 25Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.0% before the snapGo for it5.6%−0.719% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.3%average punt
- Q2 9:21UTSA 4th & 10 at UAB 10, down 32Close callWent for it · 3.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call3.0%−0.124% to convertField goal3.1%88% to makePunt2.6%−0.4average punt
- Q2 5:51UAB 4th & 8 at UTSA 34, up 32Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.9% before the snapGo for it97.9%−<0.134% to convertField goalTheir call97.9%47% to makePunt97.9%−0.1average punt
- Q2 5:51UTSA 4th & 5 at UTSA 45, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.4% before the snapGo for it1.4%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.4%average punt
- Q2 2:54UTSA 4th & 10 at UAB 37, down 35Close callWent for it · 1.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.9%−<0.130% to convertField goal0.9%40% to makePunt0.9%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 0:24UAB 4th & 6 at UTSA 29, up 35Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.0% before the snapGo for it99.0%−0.140% to convertField goalTheir call99.1%58% to makePunt98.8%−0.3average punt
- Q3 15:00UTSA 4th & 8 at UTSA 27, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snapGo for it0.7%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.8%average punt
- Q3 14:11UAB 4th & 3 at UTSA 25, up 35Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.2%52% to convertField goal99.1%−0.166% to makePunt98.7%−0.5average punt
- Q3 9:32UTSA 4th & 6 at UTSA 43, down 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.4%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q3 7:27UAB 4th & 5 at UAB 19, up 42Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.6% before the snapGo for it99.6%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.7%average punt
- Q4 14:10UTSA 4th & 2 at UAB 25, down 49Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%57% to convertField goal0.1%−0.166% to makePunt-0.3%−0.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UAB made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
- Q1 12:22UAB Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call91.0%97% to makeGo for two91.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 7:54UAB Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call91.3%97% to makeGo for two91.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 4:41UAB Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.4%97% to makeGo for two92.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:02UAB Touchdown, up 24 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.3%97% to makeGo for two95.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 12:00UAB Touchdown, up 31 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.3%97% to makeGo for two97.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:32UAB Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:10UAB Touchdown, up 48 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUABDrive 1TD7 plays · 75 yds · 2:3894% → 94%
Q1 12:22
1ST & 10
50
+50
93.7%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Kailon Carter for 50 yds for a TD, (Nick Vogel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 2PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q1 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
93.6%
N/A pass incomplete to Greg Campbell Jr., broken up by Mar'Sean DiggsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 3TD8 plays · 70 yds · 3:3994% → 94%
Q1 11:33
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-15
93.6%
JOHNSTON III, T pass complete to LISA, Collin for 33 yards to the UTSA27 (JOHNSON, B.), PENALTY UAB pass interference (UBOSI, Xavier) 15 yards to the UAB25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:33
2ND & 25
OWN 25
+37
93.5%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Collin Lisa for 37 yds to the TexSA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+12
93.6%
Tyler Johnston III run for 12 yds to the TexSA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:54
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+22
94.0%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Xavier Ubosi for 22 yds for a TD, (Nick Vogel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 4FG7 plays · 56 yds · 2:306% → 7%
Q1 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
93.7%
Jordan Weeks pass complete to Greg Campbell Jr. for 15 yds to the TexSA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+36
93.6%
Jordan Weeks pass complete to Gavin Sharp for 36 yds to the UAB 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:54
2ND & 10
OPP 24
-2
93.5%
Jalen Rhodes run for a loss of 2 yards to the UAB 26 Jalen Rhodes fumbled,Similar
Q1 7:54
3RD & 12
OPP 26
+7
93.6%
Jordan Weeks pass complete to Greg Campbell Jr. for 7 yds to the UAB 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 5TD4 plays · 78 yds · 0:3893% → 94%
UTSADrive 6PUNT13 plays · 36 yds · 1:126% → 6%
Q1 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
94.3%
Jordan Weeks pass complete to Greg Campbell Jr. for 6 yds to the TexSA 43Similar
Q1 3:29
2ND & 4
OWN 43
0
94.1%
Jordan Weeks pass incomplete to Greg Campbell Jr., broken up by Mar'Sean DiggsSimilar
Q1 3:29
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+12
94.2%
WEEKS, Jordan pass intercepted by DIGGS, Mar'Sean at the UAB47, DIGGS, Mar'Sean return to the UAB47, PENALTY UAB pass interference (DIGGS, Mar'Sean) 12 yards to the UAB45, 1ST DOWN UTSA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:29
4TH & 9
OPP 44
+5
94.3%
ROUTSAS, Yannis punt 43 yards to the UAB1, downed, PENALTY UAB offside (HARRIS, Brontae) 5 yards to the UAB39, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 7TD8 plays · 98 yds · 2:5295% → 96%
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+15
94.8%
JOHNSTON III, T pass incomplete to CARTER, Kailon, PENALTY UTSA pass interference (MAYFIELD JR., C) 15 yards to the UTSA44, 1ST DOWN UAB, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 16
50
+19
94.8%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Xavier Ubosi for 19 yds to the TexSA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:02
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
95.8%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Xavier Ubosi for 31 yds for a TD, (Nick Vogel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 8PUNT5 plays · -3 yds · 0:005% → 5%
UABDrive 9TD1 play · 4 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 10DOWNS13 plays · 65 yds · 2:393% → 2%
Q2 12:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+19
96.5%
Jordan Weeks pass complete to Marquez McNair for 19 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+13
96.9%
Cordale Grundy pass complete to Blaze Moorhead for a loss of 1 yard to the UAB 37 for a 1ST down UAB Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (14 Yards) to the UAB 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:21
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
0
98.4%
Cordale Grundy pass incomplete to Carter McCarthy, broken up by Kristopher MollSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 11FG9 plays · 56 yds · 2:2998% → 99%
Q2 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+39
98.5%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Andre Wilson for 39 yds to the TexSA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 12PUNT8 plays · 20 yds · 0:001% → 1%
UABDrive 13INT2 plays · 4 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
UTSADrive 14DOWNS4 plays · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 2:54
3RD & 10
OPP 37
0
99.4%
Jordan Weeks pass incomplete to Greg Campbell Jr., broken up by Brontae HarrisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 15MISSED FG7 plays · 34 yds · 1:3899% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 16END OF HALF1 play · 1 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
99.5%
Jordan Weeks pass complete to Marquez McNair for 1 yd to the TexSA 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 17PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
99.4%
Yannis Routsas punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Andre Wilson at the UAB 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 18TD10 plays · 72 yds · 4:3999% → 100%
Q3 14:11
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+14
99.4%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Kendall Parham for 14 yds to the TexSA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:11
2ND & 14
OPP 36
0
99.4%
Tyler Johnston III pass incomplete to Collin Lisa, broken up by C.J. LevineSimilar
Q3 14:11
4TH & 3
OPP 25
+4
99.3%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Collin Lisa for 4 yds to the TexSA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 19PUNT6 plays · 18 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
99.7%
Jordan Weeks pass complete to Greg Campbell Jr. for 14 yds to the TexSA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 20PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 21FUMBLE6 plays · 53 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+15
99.8%
Jordan Weeks pass incomplete to Brenden Brady for a 1ST down UAB Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the UAB 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:53
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
99.8%
Jordan Weeks pass complete to Gavin Sharp for 6 yds to the UAB 35Similar
Q3 5:53
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+13
99.7%
Matt Guidry run for a loss of 1 yard to the UAB 28 for a 1ST down UAB Penalty, face mask (14 yards) (Stacy Keely) to the UAB 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:53
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+12
99.7%
WEEKS, Jordan pass incomplete to JONES, Sheldon, PENALTY UAB pass interference (THOMAS V, S.) 12 yards to the UAB2, 1ST DOWN UTSA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
99.7%
B.J. Daniels run for no gain to the UAB 3 B.J. Daniels fumbled, forced by Jarrion Street, recovered by UAB Tre' CrawfordSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 22TD10 plays · 97 yds · 4:57100% → 100%
UTSADrive 23INT12 plays · 52 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
99.9%
D.J. Gillins pass complete to Greg Campbell Jr. for 10 yds to the TexSA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+10
99.9%
D.J. Gillins pass complete to Greg Campbell Jr. for 10 yds to the UAB 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+8
99.9%
D.J. Gillins pass complete to Carter McCarthy for 8 yds to the UAB 25Similar
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
99.9%
D.J. Gillins pass intercepted Grayson Cash return for no gain to the UAB 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 24END OF GAME11 plays · 55 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 8:29
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-7
99.9%
Yusupha Foster run for 3 yds to the TexSA 39 UAB Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the TexSA 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 12:00
Spencer Brown run for 4 yds for a TD, (Nick Vogel KICK)
+2.2
TD · Q1 4:41
Andre Wilson run for 50 yds for a TD, (Nick Vogel KICK)
+1.3
FG · Q1 5:24
Jared Sackett 37 yd FG GOOD
-1