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Win probability · RICE
modelRICE aheadUTEP aheadconfidence bandkey playRICE scoreUTEP score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:08 · Mitchell Crawford punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Austin Trammell at the Rice 11
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingTime remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 14:59: Kai Locksley run for 1 yd for a TD (Jason Filley PAT MISSED) — UTEP win probability +5.5 pts (now 60%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
- TD · Q2 9:23: Quardraiz Wadley run for 12 yds for a TD (Jason Filley KICK) — UTEP win probability +13.9 pts (now 76%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
- FG · Q2 0:00: Haden Tobola 43 yd FG GOOD — RICE win probability +13.0 pts (now 21%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
- TD · Q4 11:26: Wiley Green pass complete to Austin Trammell for 20 yds for a TD GREEN, Wiley pass attempt failed, PENALTY UTEP pass interference 1 yards to the UTEP2, 1ST DOWN RICE, NO PLAY. (Wiley Green pass to Aaron Cephus for Two-Point Conversion) — RICE win probability +8.9 pts (now 13%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
- TD · Q4 8:37: Wiley Green pass complete to Austin Trammell for 53 yds for a TD (Wiley Green pass to Aaron Cephus for Two-Point Conversion) — RICE win probability +12.6 pts (now 21%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
RICE made the numbers' call on 7 of 10UTEP made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
- Q1 12:32RICE 4th & 7 at RICE 44, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.2% before the snapGo for it47.2%−0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call47.2%average punt
- Q1 9:18UTEP 4th & 4 at RICE 44, up 7Close callPunted · 53.6% before the snapGo for it53.7%48% to convertField goal53.3%−0.427% to makePuntTheir call53.6%−0.2average punt
- Q1 5:41RICE 4th & 2 at RICE 18, down 7Close callPunted · 45.2% before the snapGo for it45.4%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call45.2%−0.2average punt
- Q2 14:59RICE 4th & 6 at RICE 29, down 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.2% before the snapGo for it40.3%−0.339% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call40.5%average punt
- Q2 9:17RICE 4th & 4 at RICE 46, down 20Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call28.5%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt28.3%−0.2average punt
- Q2 9:17RICE 4th & 11 at midfield, down 20Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.9% before the snapGo for it27.5%−0.626% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call28.1%average punt
- Q3 15:00RICE 4th & 3 at UTEP 10, down 24Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call17.8%49% to convertField goal16.7%−1.188% to makePunt6.7%−11.1average punt
- Q3 10:05UTEP 4th & 2 at RICE 25, up 24Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call91.8%57% to convertField goal91.2%−0.766% to makePunt87.7%−4.2average punt
- Q4 11:26RICE 4th & 3 at UTEP 20, down 24Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call3.1%51% to convertField goal2.8%−0.375% to makePunt1.3%−1.8average punt
- Q4 10:32UTEP 4th & 10 at UTEP 22, up 16Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.2% before the snapGo for it91.3%−1.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call92.4%average punt
- Q4 8:37RICE 4th & 3 at RICE 47, down 16Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call7.8%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt7.2%−0.6average punt
- Q4 8:37UTEP 4th & 12 at UTEP 23, up 8Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.6% before the snapGo for it77.3%−4.722% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call82.0%average punt
- Q4 7:15RICE 4th & 6 at RICE 29, down 8Close callPunted · 16.3% before the snapGo for it14.6%39% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call14.2%−0.4average punt
- Q4 3:36UTEP 4th & 20 at UTEP 45, up 8Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.7% before the snapGo for it86.9%−3.310% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call90.1%average punt
- Q4 2:29RICE 4th & 20 at RICE 10, down 8Close callWent for it · 7.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call5.0%−1.09% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt6.0%average punt
- Q4 0:08UTEP 4th & 4 at RICE 43, up 8Close callPunted · 94.9% before the snapGo for it95.0%−0.448% to convertField goal95.4%28% to makePuntTheir call94.6%−0.8average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
RICE made the numbers' call on 2 of 3UTEP made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
- Q1 12:32UTEP Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call52.4%97% to makeGo for two52.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:59UTEP Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call59.9%97% to makeGo for two59.9%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:23UTEP Touchdown, up 19 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call71.9%97% to makeGo for two71.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:17UTEP Touchdown, up 26 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.3%97% to makeGo for two96.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:11UTEP Touchdown, up 30 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.9%97% to makeGo for two96.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:52RICE Touchdown, down 25 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call1.6%97% to makeGo for two1.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 11:26RICE Touchdown, down 18 before the tryClose callWent for two · convertedKick5.7%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call5.5%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 8:37RICE Touchdown, down 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersWent for two · convertedKick16.8%−<0.197% to makeGo for twoTheir call16.8%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUTEPDrive 1TD7 plays · 75 yds · 2:2851% → 51%
RICEDrive 2PUNT8 plays · 19 yds · 0:0049% → 49%
UTEPDrive 3PUNT8 plays · 36 yds · 0:0052% → 52%
Q1 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
48.3%
WADLEY, Q. rush for 3 yards to the UTEP23 (MONTERO, A.;ABERCRUMBIA, Z.), PENALTY RICE offside 5 yards to the UTEP25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:18
1ST & 5
OWN 25
+12
48.0%
Kai Locksley pass complete to Warren Redix for 12 yds to the UTEP 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:18
4TH & 4
OPP 44
0
48.0%
Mitchell Crawford punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Austin Trammell at the Rice 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 4PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
UTEPDrive 5TD8 plays · 58 yds · 4:1054% → 60%
Q1 4:09
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+7
45.8%
Kai Locksley pass complete to Warren Redix for 7 yds to the Rice 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:09
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+22
45.6%
Kai Locksley pass complete to David Lucero for 22 yds to the Rice 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:09
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+17
45.5%
Kai Locksley pass complete to Erik Brown for 17 yds to the Rice 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 6PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q2 14:59
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
41.8%
Wiley Green pass incomplete to Austin Trammell, broken up by Justin RogersSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 7TD9 plays · 73 yds · 4:0160% → 76%
Q2 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
39.9%
RICE Penalty, Defensive offside (Graysen Schantz) to the UTEP 32Similar
Q2 13:24
1ST & 5
OWN 32
+37
39.6%
Kai Locksley pass complete to Erik Brown for 37 yds to the Rice 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:24
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
38.3%
Kai Locksley pass complete to Warren Redix for 2 yds to the Rice 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 8PUNT9 plays · 10 yds · 0:0030% → 29%
Q2 9:17
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
30.1%
Wiley Green pass incomplete to Austin Trammell, broken up by Nik NeedhamSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 9TD18 plays · 80 yds · 5:4178% → 91%
Q2 5:58
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+7
22.4%
Kai Locksley pass complete to Terry Juniel for 7 yds to the UTEP 27Similar
Q2 5:58
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+10
22.8%
Kai Locksley pass complete to Keynan Foster for 10 yds to the UTEP 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
21.3%
Kai Locksley pass complete to David Lucero for 6 yds to the Rice 25Similar
Q2 1:06
3RD & 12
OPP 18
+14
22.8%
Kai Locksley pass complete to Tre'Shon Wolf for 14 yds to the Rice 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
21.4%
Kai Locksley pass incomplete to Keynan Foster, broken up by Prudy CalderonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 10FG6 plays · 50 yds · 0:1717% → 21%
RICEDrive 11DOWNS10 plays · 65 yds · 0:0017% → 19%
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+20
16.4%
Wiley Green pass complete to Aaron Cephus for 20 yds to the Rice 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+37
18.1%
Wiley Green pass complete to Aston Walter for 37 yds to the UTEP 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 10
0
18.9%
Wiley Green pass incomplete to Austin Walter, broken up by Justin RogersSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 12TD6 plays · 25 yds · 2:5491% → 95%
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
9.0%
Kai Locksley pass incomplete to Erik Brown, broken up by Collin WhitakerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 13TD12 plays · 75 yds · 6:195% → 5%
Q3 7:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
4.2%
GREEN, Wiley pass incomplete to CEPHUS, Aaron, PENALTY UTEP pass interference (NEEDHAM, Nik) 2 yards to the UTEP2, 1ST DOWN RICE, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:11
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+3
4.3%
Wiley Green pass complete to Austin Trammell for 3 yds to the UTEP 46Similar
Q3 7:11
3RD & 5
OPP 46
-10
4.3%
OTOVIANO, Juma rush for 4 yards to the UTEP42 (SMITH, Kahani;HOTCHKINS, A.J.), PENALTY RICE holding (PIERCE, Sam) 10 yards to the RICE44, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 14FUMBLE5 plays · 27 yds · 0:5297% → 97%
RICEDrive 15TD8 plays · 52 yds · 2:183% → 13%
Q4 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
3.6%
Wiley Green pass complete to Rhett Cardwell for 4 yds to the UTEP 35Similar
Q4 13:44
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+8
3.9%
Wiley Green pass complete to Austin Trammell for 8 yds to the UTEP 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:44
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
3.8%
Wiley Green pass incomplete to Aaron Cephus, broken up by Nik NeedhamSimilar
Q4 13:44
3RD & 10
OPP 27
+7
3.6%
Wiley Green pass complete to Austin Trammell for 7 yds to the UTEP 20Similar
Q4 11:26
4TH & 3
OPP 20
+20
12.5%
Wiley Green pass complete to Austin Trammell for 20 yds for a TD GREEN, Wiley pass attempt failed, PENALTY UTEP pass interference 1 yards to the UTEP2, 1ST DOWN RICE, NO PLAY. (Wiley Green pass to Aaron Cephus for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 16INT3 plays · 3 yds · 0:0093% → 92%
RICEDrive 17INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q4 10:37
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
11.4%
Wiley Green pass intercepted Jamar Smith return for no gain to the UTEP 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 18PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0093% → 92%
RICEDrive 19TD4 plays · 60 yds · 1:008% → 21%
UTEPDrive 20PUNT5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0083% → 81%
Q4 8:37
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+52
19.5%
Mitchell Crawford punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Austin Trammell at the RICE 35 RICE Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the Rice 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 21PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0018% → 16%
Q4 7:15
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+9
17.7%
Wiley Green pass complete to Austin Trammell for 9 yds to the Rice 29Similar
Q4 7:15
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
17.8%
Wiley Green pass incomplete to Austin Trammell, broken up by Josh CaldwellSimilar
Q4 7:15
4TH & 6
OWN 29
-2
15.9%
Jack Fox punt for 47 yds , Terry Juniel returns for a loss of 2 yards to the UTEP 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 22PUNT9 plays · 23 yds · 2:2889% → 91%
RICEDrive 23INT6 plays · -10 yds · 1:0111% → 4%
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-4
11.2%
Wiley Green sacked by A.J. Hotchkins and Trace Mascorro for a loss of 4 yards to the Rice 16Similar
Q4 3:30
2ND & 14
OWN 16
-8
10.9%
GREEN, Wiley pass complete to CEPHUS, Aaron for 19 yards to the RICE35 (TUPOU, Sione;ROGERS, Justin), PENALTY RICE holding 8 yards to the RICE8, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:30
2ND & 22
OWN 8
0
10.5%
Wiley Green pass incomplete to Austin Walter, broken up by Jamar SmithSimilar
Q4 2:29
4TH & 20
OWN 10
0
4.4%
Wiley Green pass intercepted Justin Rogers return for no gain to the Rice 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 24PUNT6 plays · 6 yds · 2:1495% → 97%
Q4 0:08
4TH & 4
OPP 43
0
3.0%
Mitchell Crawford punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Austin Trammell at the Rice 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 25END OF GAME1 play · 25 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q4 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+25
3.9%
Wiley Green pass complete to Jordan Myers for 25 yds to the Rice 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 9:23
Quardraiz Wadley run for 12 yds for a TD (Jason Filley KICK)
-13.9
FG · Q2 0:00
Haden Tobola 43 yd FG GOOD
+13
TD · Q4 8:37
Wiley Green pass complete to Austin Trammell for 53 yds for a TD (Wiley Green pass to Aaron Cephus for Two-Point Conversion)
+12.6