Try the model
WKU

Western Kentucky 10 at Middle Tennessee 29

MTSU
2018 · Week 10 · Nov 2, 2018 · Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MTSU
modelMTSU aheadWKU aheadconfidence bandkey playMTSU scoreWKU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDFGFGTDFGFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 6:13 · Alex Rinella punt for 57 yds, downed at the MTnSt 16
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.5+16.80−16.8−33.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 88Pregame prior+21.3Home team on offense+8.7Score differential+2.8Garbage-time factor+0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 7:47: Alex Rinella 40 yd FG GOOD — WKU win probability +0.9 pts (now 19%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. TD · Q2 6:13: Brent Stockstill pass complete to Zack Dobson for 5 yds for a TD (Crews Holt KICK) — MTSU win probability +3.8 pts (now 86%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 0:05: Crews Holt 39 yd FG GOOD — MTSU win probability +1.4 pts (now 91%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 6:53: Crews Holt 23 yd FG GOOD — MTSU win probability +2.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:34: Steven Duncan pass complete to Lucky Jackson for 46 yds for a TD (Ryan Nuss KICK) — WKU win probability +9.6 pts (now 13%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MTSU made the numbers' call on 10 of 12WKU made the numbers' call on 10 of 12
  1. Q1 13:36WKU 4th & 6 at MTSU 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    18.2%−<0.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    17.8%−0.3
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:05MTSU 4th & 10 at MTSU 43, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.6%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:47WKU 4th & 10 at MTSU 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.3%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.5%
    70% to make
    Punt
    17.8%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:39MTSU 4th & 1 at midfield, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    80.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    79.8%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:39MTSU 4th & 10 at WKU 37, up 4
    Close callPunted · 79.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.9%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    79.9%−<0.1
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    79.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q1 4:56WKU 4th & 5 at WKU 22, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.4%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.6%
    average punt
  7. Q1 1:26MTSU 4th & 15 at WKU 25, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.1%−0.4
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    78.6%
    66% to make
    Punt
    76.9%−1.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 15:00WKU 4th & 13 at WKU 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.5%−0.6
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 14:11MTSU 4th & 10 at MTSU 20, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.8%−0.4
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.2%
    average punt
  10. Q2 13:07WKU 4th & 6 at WKU 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.0%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.2%
    average punt
  11. Q2 6:13WKU 4th & 11 at WKU 27, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.2%−0.9
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.1%
    average punt
  12. Q2 4:55MTSU 4th & 10 at MTSU 27, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.6%−1.0
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.6%
    average punt
  13. Q2 2:17WKU 4th & 10 at MTSU 44, down 14
    Close callPunted · 13.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.8%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    12.6%−0.3
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    12.8%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:53MTSU 4th & 6 at WKU 6, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.4%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.5%
    91% to make
    Punt
    89.1%−4.4
    average punt
  15. Q3 6:53WKU 4th & 5 at WKU 15, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.2%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.5%
    average punt
  16. Q3 5:49MTSU 4th & 9 at WKU 49, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.9%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 13:44MTSU 4th & 3 at WKU 11, up 13
    Close callKicked a field goal · 93.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.5%
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.0%−0.5
    87% to make
    Punt
    87.5%−6.0
    average punt
  18. Q4 13:44WKU 4th & 6 at MTSU 28, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    6.7%−<0.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    3.8%−2.8
    average punt
  19. Q4 11:38WKU 4th & 10 at MTSU 20, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.4%−0.6
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.9%
    75% to make
    Punt
    3.0%−2.9
    average punt
  20. Q4 11:38MTSU 4th & 6 at MTSU 39, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.7%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.8%
    average punt
  21. Q4 10:12WKU 4th & 15 at WKU 27, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.8%−0.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.4%
    average punt
  22. Q4 8:48MTSU 4th & 14 at MTSU 26, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.1%−0.9
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.1%
    average punt
  23. Q4 5:54WKU 4th & 10 at WKU 36, down 16
    Close callWent for it · 3.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.1%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.2%
    average punt
  24. Q4 1:51MTSU 4th & 13 at WKU 13, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.7%−0.3
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.0%
    85% to make
    Punt
    97.0%−1.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MTSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2WKU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 13:36MTSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:13MTSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 1:34WKU Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MTSUDrive 1TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:2483% → 83%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
83.1%
Brent Stockstill run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+15
83.1%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ty Lee for 15 yds to the MTnSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+14
83.1%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Patrick Smith for 14 yds to the WKent 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
83.1%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Patrick Smith for 2 yds to the WKent 43Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 43
0
83.1%
Brent Stockstill pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:36
3RD & 8
OPP 43
+43
83.1%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ty Lee for 43 yds for a TD (Crews Holt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 2DOWNS
10 plays · 47 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q1 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
83.0%
D'Andre Ferby run for no gain to the WKent 25Similar
Q1 13:36
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
83.0%
Drew Eckels pass complete to Jacquez Sloan for 12 yds to the WKent 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
83.0%
D'Andre Ferby run for 6 yds to the WKent 43Similar
Q1 13:36
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+4
82.9%
Joshua Samuel run for 4 yds to the WKent 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+21
82.9%
Drew Eckels run for 21 yds to the MTnSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
82.9%
Gino Appleberry Jr. run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 28Similar
Q1 13:36
2ND & 6
OPP 28
0
82.9%
Drew Eckels pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:36
3RD & 6
OPP 28
0
82.9%
Drew Eckels pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:36
4TH & 6
OPP 28
0
83.0%
Drew Eckels pass incomplete to Jacquez Sloan, broken up by Jovante MoffattSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:0883% → 83%
Q1 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
82.9%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Ty Lee, broken up by Drell GreeneSimilar
Q1 11:05
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+15
82.8%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Tavonn Salter for 15 yds to the MTnSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
83.0%
Brent Stockstill pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:05
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
83.0%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Terelle West for no gain to the MTnSt 43Similar
Q1 11:05
3RD & 10
OWN 43
0
82.8%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Tavonn Salter, broken up by DeAndre FarrisSimilar
Q1 11:05
4TH & 10
OWN 43
0
82.7%
Matt Bonadies punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Roger Cray at the WKent 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 4FG
7 plays · 66 yds · 1:5617% → 19%
Q1 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
82.7%
Gino Appleberry Jr. run for no gain to the WKent 11Similar
Q1 9:43
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+53
82.7%
Drew Eckels pass complete to Jacquez Sloan for 53 yds to the MTnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+13
82.3%
Drew Eckels pass complete to Mik'Quan Deane for 13 yds to the MTnSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
82.1%
Drew Eckels pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:43
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
82.2%
Drew Eckels pass incomplete to Mik'Quan DeaneSimilar
Q1 9:43
3RD & 10
OPP 23
0
82.3%
Drew Eckels pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:47
4TH & 10
OPP 23
+40
81.5%
Alex Rinella 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 5PUNT
12 plays · 38 yds · 2:0882% → 81%
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
81.5%
Chaton Mobley run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 27Similar
Q1 7:47
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+14
81.5%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Zack Dobson for 14 yds to the MTnSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
81.9%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Patrick Smith for 7 yds to the MTnSt 48Similar
Q1 7:47
2ND & 3
OWN 48
0
82.0%
Brent Stockstill pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:47
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+2
81.8%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Patrick Smith for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 5:39
4TH & 1
50
+13
81.4%
Chaton Mobley run for 13 yds to the WKent 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
81.9%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Ty Lee, broken up by Ben HoltSimilar
Q1 5:39
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
81.8%
Brent Stockstill pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:39
3RD & 10
OPP 37
0
81.6%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Chaton MobleySimilar
Q1 5:39
4TH & 10
OPP 37
0
81.2%
Matt Bonadies punt for 20 yds, downed at the WKent 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0019% → 18%
Q1 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
81.4%
Joshua Samuel run for 3 yds to the WKent 20Similar
Q1 4:56
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+2
81.5%
Drew Eckels pass complete to Joshua Samuel for 2 yds to the WKent 22Similar
Q1 4:56
3RD & 5
OWN 22
0
81.7%
Drew Eckels pass incomplete to Mik'Quan DeaneSimilar
Q1 4:56
4TH & 5
OWN 22
0
81.9%
Alex Rinella punt for 58 yds, downed at the MTnSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 7FG
5 plays · 55 yds · 2:0181% → 82%
Q1 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+60
80.9%
Chaton Mobley run for 60 yds to the WKent 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:27
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-1
81.7%
Tavares Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the WKent 21Similar
Q1 3:27
2ND & 11
OPP 21
-4
81.6%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Tavares Thomas for a loss of 4 yards to the WKent 25Similar
Q1 3:27
3RD & 15
OPP 25
0
81.1%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Patrick Smith, broken up by Drell GreeneSimilar
Q1 1:26
4TH & 15
OPP 25
+42
81.7%
Crews Holt 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 26 yds · 1:2618% → 18%
Q1 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+12
82.1%
Gino Appleberry Jr. run for 12 yds to the WKent 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
82.0%
Drew Eckels pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:26
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+17
82.1%
Drew Eckels pass complete to Jacquez Sloan for 17 yds to the WKent 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
81.4%
Drew Eckels pass complete to Mik'Quan Deane for 2 yds to the WKent 48Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 48
0
81.2%
Drew Eckels pass incomplete to Joshua SamuelSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 48
-5
81.6%
Drew Eckels sacked by Jahmal Jones for a loss of 5 yards to the WKent 43Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 13
OWN 43
0
82.5%
Alex Rinella punt for 57 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0082% → 81%
Q2 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
81.9%
Brent Stockstill run for no gain to the MTnSt 20Similar
Q2 14:11
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
81.8%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Tavonn SalterSimilar
Q2 14:11
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
81.4%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Patrick SmithSimilar
Q2 14:11
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
81.1%
Matt Bonadies punt for 48 yds, downed at the WKent 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0019% → 18%
Q2 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
81.5%
Drew Eckels pass complete to Jacquez Sloan for 7 yds to the WKent 39Similar
Q2 13:07
2ND & 3
OWN 39
0
81.0%
Drew Eckels pass incomplete to Mik'Quan Deane, broken up by Darius HarrisSimilar
Q2 13:07
3RD & 3
OWN 39
-3
81.1%
Drew Eckels run for a loss of 3 yards to the WKent 36Similar
Q2 13:07
4TH & 6
OWN 36
0
82.2%
Alex Rinella punt for 47 yds, downed at the MTnSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 11TD
15 plays · 83 yds · 5:3682% → 86%
Q2 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
81.7%
Chaton Mobley run for no gain to the MTnSt 17Similar
Q2 11:49
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+4
81.6%
Chaton Mobley run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 21Similar
Q2 11:49
3RD & 6
OWN 21
+14
81.2%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Gatlin Casey for 14 yds to the MTnSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
81.9%
Terelle West run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 37Similar
Q2 11:49
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+6
82.1%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ty Lee for 6 yds to the MTnSt 43Similar
Q2 11:49
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+3
82.2%
Chaton Mobley run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+25
82.7%
Zack Dobson run for 25 yds to the WKent 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
82.8%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Tavonn SalterSimilar
Q2 11:49
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+11
82.8%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Isiah Upton for 11 yds to the WKent 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:49
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+7
82.8%
Chaton Mobley run for 7 yds to the WKent 11Similar
Q2 11:49
2ND & 3
OPP 11
+5
82.8%
Chaton Mobley run for 5 yds to the WKent 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
82.8%
Chaton Mobley run for 1 yd to the WKent 5Similar
Q2 11:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
82.8%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Ty LeeSimilar
Q2 6:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
86.4%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Zack Dobson for 5 yds for a TD (Crews Holt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0014% → 13%
Q2 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
86.3%
Joshua Samuel run for no gain to the WKent 28Similar
Q2 6:13
2ND & 10
OWN 28
-1
86.6%
Jahcour Pearson run for a loss of 1 yard to the WKent 27Similar
Q2 6:13
3RD & 11
OWN 27
0
86.7%
Drew Eckels pass incomplete to Jahcour PearsonSimilar
Q2 6:13
4TH & 11
OWN 27
0
86.9%
Alex Rinella punt for 57 yds, downed at the MTnSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 0:0087% → 86%
Q2 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+9
87.2%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ty Lee for 9 yds to the MTnSt 25Similar
Q2 4:55
2ND & 1
OWN 25
+2
86.9%
Chaton Mobley run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
86.9%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Chaton Mobley for 3 yds to the MTnSt 30Similar
Q2 4:55
2ND & 7
OWN 30
-5
86.8%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the MTnSt 25Similar
Q2 4:55
2ND & 12
OWN 25
+2
86.7%
Chaton Mobley run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 27Similar
Q2 4:55
3RD & 10
OWN 27
0
86.3%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Ty LeeSimilar
Q2 4:55
4TH & 10
OWN 27
0
85.9%
Matt Bonadies punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Roger Cray at the WKent 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q2 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
86.9%
Drew Eckels pass incomplete to Kyle FourtenbarySimilar
Q2 2:17
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+9
87.1%
Drew Eckels pass complete to Quin Jernighan for 9 yds to the WKent 49Similar
Q2 2:17
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+7
86.2%
Joshua Samuel run for 7 yds to the MTnSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
85.9%
Drew Eckels pass incomplete to Quin Jernighan, broken up by Darryl RandolphSimilar
Q2 2:17
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
86.5%
Drew Eckels pass incomplete to Mik'Quan Deane, broken up by Jovante MoffattSimilar
Q2 2:17
3RD & 10
OPP 44
0
86.8%
Drew Eckels pass incomplete to Jahcour Pearson, broken up by DQ ThomasSimilar
Q2 2:17
4TH & 10
OPP 44
0
87.1%
Alex Rinella punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Ty Lee at the MTnSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 15FG
7 plays · 63 yds · 0:5389% → 91%
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+19
89.1%
Zack Dobson run for 19 yds to the MTnSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
89.0%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the MTnSt 39Similar
Q2 0:58
1ST & 5
OWN 39
+9
89.4%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Terelle West for 9 yds to the MTnSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+20
89.6%
Brent Stockstill run for 5 yds to the MIDDLETENN 47 for a 1ST down WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Eli Brown) to the WKent 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+10
89.7%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Patrick Smith for 10 yds to the WKent 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+39
91.1%
Crews Holt 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 17FUMBLE
9 plays · 70 yds · 0:009% → 11%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+6
90.6%
Joshua Samuel run for 6 yds to the WKent 14Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 14
0
90.4%
Drew Eckels pass incomplete to Mik'Quan DeaneSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 14
+15
90.4%
Drew Eckels pass complete to Mik'Quan Deane for 15 yds to the WKent 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
89.9%
Gino Appleberry Jr. run for 1 yd to the WKent 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+2
90.0%
Gino Appleberry Jr. run for 2 yds to the WKent 32Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 32
+10
90.1%
Drew Eckels pass complete to Kyle Fourtenbary for 10 yds to the WKent 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+26
89.6%
Drew Eckels pass complete to Quin Jernighan for 26 yds to the MTnSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
88.6%
Gino Appleberry Jr. run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 22 Gino Appleberry Jr. fumbled, forced by DQ Thomas, recovered by MTnSt Darrius LigginsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 18FG
14 plays · 72 yds · 4:4292% → 97%
Q3 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
91.6%
Zack Dobson run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 27Similar
Q3 11:35
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+20
91.7%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Patrick Smith for 20 yds to the MTnSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
92.1%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Patrick Smith for 5 yds to the WKent 48Similar
Q3 11:35
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+9
92.1%
Chaton Mobley run for 9 yds to the WKent 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
92.2%
Terelle West run for 3 yds to the WKent 36Similar
Q3 11:35
2ND & 7
OPP 36
0
92.2%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Devon JacksonSimilar
Q3 11:35
3RD & 7
OPP 36
+15
91.9%
STOCKSTILL, B. pass incomplete to CASEY, Gatlin, PENALTY WKU pass interference (CRAY, Roger) 15 yards to the WKU21, 1ST DOWN MT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
92.2%
Chaton Mobley run for 4 yds to the WKent 17Similar
Q3 11:35
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+8
92.2%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ty Lee for 8 yds to the WKent 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
92.2%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Gatlin Casey, broken up by Roger CraySimilar
Q3 11:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
92.2%
Brent Stockstill run for 3 yds to the WKent 6Similar
Q3 7:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
94.4%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Patrick SmithSimilar
Q3 6:53
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
96.6%
Crews Holt 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q3 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
96.4%
Drew Eckels pass incomplete to Quin JernighanSimilar
Q3 6:53
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+5
96.5%
Joshua Samuel run for 5 yds to the WKent 15Similar
Q3 6:53
3RD & 5
OWN 15
0
96.5%
Drew Eckels pass incomplete to Jahcour Pearson, broken up by Reed BlankenshipSimilar
Q3 6:53
4TH & 5
OWN 15
0
96.5%
Alex Rinella punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Ty Lee at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q3 5:49
1ST & 10
50
+5
97.1%
Terelle West run for 5 yds to the WKent 45Similar
Q3 5:49
2ND & 5
OPP 45
0
97.1%
Terelle West run for no gain to the WKent 45Similar
Q3 5:49
3RD & 5
OPP 45
-4
97.0%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Tavares Thomas for a loss of 4 yards to the WKent 49Similar
Q3 5:49
4TH & 9
OPP 49
0
96.8%
Matt Bonadies punt for 43 yds, downed at the WKent 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 21TD
7 plays · 94 yds · 2:203% → 13%
Q3 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+3
97.0%
Joshua Samuel run for 3 yds to the WKent 9Similar
Q3 3:54
2ND & 7
OWN 9
0
97.0%
Drew Eckels pass incomplete to Mik'Quan DeaneSimilar
Q3 3:54
3RD & 7
OWN 9
+29
97.1%
Drew Eckels pass complete to Jahcour Pearson for 29 yds to the WKent 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
96.6%
Drew Eckels pass incomplete to Kyle FourtenbarySimilar
Q3 3:54
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+1
96.6%
Garland LaFrance run for 1 yd to the WKent 39Similar
Q3 3:54
3RD & 9
OWN 39
+15
96.7%
Drew Eckels run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 40 for a 1ST down MIDDLE TENN Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Jordan Ferguson) to the MTnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+46
87.1%
Steven Duncan pass complete to Lucky Jackson for 46 yds for a TD (Ryan Nuss KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 22FG
10 plays · 64 yds · 2:5092% → 95%
Q3 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
91.8%
Brent Stockstill sacked by Jaylon George for a loss of 3 yards to the MTnSt 22Similar
Q3 1:34
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+24
91.6%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Tavonn Salter for 24 yds to the MTnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+17
92.6%
Chaton Mobley run for 17 yds to the WKent 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+19
92.7%
Chaton Mobley run for 19 yds to the WKent 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
92.7%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Patrick Smith for no gain to the WKent 18Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+2
94.5%
Brent Stockstill run for 2 yds to the WKent 16Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 16
+5
94.3%
Brent Stockstill run for 5 yds to the WKent 11Similar
Q4 13:44
4TH & 3
OPP 11
+28
95.1%
Crews Holt 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
Q4 13:44
1ST & GOAL
OWN 35
-15
95.2%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Chris Myers) to the MTnSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 23MISSED FG
11 plays · 47 yds · 2:067% → 7%
Q4 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+22
92.6%
Steven Duncan run for 22 yds to the MTnSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+13
92.1%
Steven Duncan run for 13 yds to the MTnSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
91.1%
D'Andre Ferby run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 28Similar
Q4 13:44
2ND & 6
OPP 28
0
90.8%
Steven Duncan pass incomplete to Mik'Quan DeaneSimilar
Q4 13:44
3RD & 6
OPP 28
0
91.6%
Steven Duncan pass incomplete to Kyle FourtenbarySimilar
Q4 13:44
4TH & 6
OPP 28
+8
92.3%
Steven Duncan pass complete to Mik'Quan Deane for 8 yds to the MTnSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
90.8%
Steven Duncan pass incomplete to Quin JernighanSimilar
Q4 13:44
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
91.1%
Steven Duncan pass incomplete to Quin Jernighan, broken up by Gregory Grate Jr.Similar
Q4 13:44
3RD & 10
OPP 20
0
92.0%
Steven Duncan pass incomplete to Jahcour PearsonSimilar
Q4 11:38
4TH & 10
OPP 20
+37
93.3%
Ryan Nuss 37 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Darryl RandolphSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
96.2%
Chaton Mobley run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 37Similar
Q4 11:38
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+2
96.3%
Chaton Mobley run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 39Similar
Q4 11:38
3RD & 6
OWN 39
0
96.3%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Gatlin CaseySimilar
Q4 11:38
4TH & 6
OWN 39
0
96.0%
Matt Bonadies punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Roger Cray at the WKent 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:006% → 5%
Q4 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-7
94.3%
Steven Duncan sacked by Tyshun Render for a loss of 7 yards to the WKent 25Similar
Q4 10:12
2ND & 17
OWN 25
0
95.0%
Steven Duncan pass incomplete to Quin JernighanSimilar
Q4 10:12
3RD & 17
OWN 25
-12
95.1%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-12 Yards) to the WKent 13Similar
Q4 10:12
3RD & 29
OWN 13
+14
95.1%
Davis Shanley pass complete to Jahcour Pearson for 14 yds to the WKent 27Similar
Q4 10:12
4TH & 15
OWN 27
0
95.1%
Alex Rinella punt for 57 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MTnSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 10 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+14
96.3%
Chaton Mobley run for 14 yds to the MTnSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
96.4%
Chaton Mobley run for no gain to the MTnSt 30Similar
Q4 8:48
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+3
96.3%
Chaton Mobley run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 33Similar
Q4 8:48
3RD & 7
OWN 33
-7
96.4%
Brent Stockstill sacked by Juwuan Jones for a loss of 7 yards to the MTnSt 26Similar
Q4 8:48
4TH & 14
OWN 26
0
96.0%
Matt Bonadies punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Drell Greene at the WKent 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 27DOWNS
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:005% → 4%
Q4 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
95.2%
Steven Duncan pass incomplete to Jahcour Pearson, broken up by Khalil BrooksSimilar
Q4 5:54
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
95.3%
Steven Duncan pass incomplete to Lucky JacksonSimilar
Q4 5:54
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
95.8%
Steven Duncan pass incomplete to Lucky Jackson, broken up by Reed BlankenshipSimilar
Q4 5:54
4TH & 10
OWN 36
0
95.9%
Steven Duncan pass incomplete to Quin JernighanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 28FG
10 plays · 23 yds · 3:4498% → 99%
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
97.6%
Chaton Mobley run for 4 yds to the WKent 32Similar
Q4 5:35
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+1
97.6%
Chaton Mobley run for 1 yd to the WKent 31Similar
Q4 5:35
3RD & 5
OPP 31
+12
97.5%
Chaton Mobley run for 12 yds to the WKent 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+12
97.6%
Chaton Mobley run for 12 yds to the WKent 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
97.6%
Chaton Mobley run for no gain to the WKent 7Similar
Q4 5:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-2
97.6%
Terelle West run for a loss of 2 yards to the WKent 9Similar
Q4 2:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
-4
98.4%
Terelle West run for a loss of 4 yards to the WKent 13Similar
Q4 1:51
4TH & GOAL
OPP 13
+30
99.4%
Crews Holt 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 29INT
3 plays · 7 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
98.5%
Steven Duncan pass complete to Lucky Jackson for 7 yds to the WKent 45Similar
Q4 1:51
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+19
98.5%
Steven Duncan pass intercepted Reed Blankenship return for 19 yds to the MTnSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 30END OF GAME
2 plays · -10 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-5
99.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the MTnSt 34Similar
Q4 1:13
2ND & 15
OWN 34
-5
99.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the MTnSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:34
Steven Duncan pass complete to Lucky Jackson for 46 yds for a TD (Ryan Nuss KICK)
-9.6
TD · Q2 6:13
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Zack Dobson for 5 yds for a TD (Crews Holt KICK)
+3.8
FG · Q3 6:53
Crews Holt 23 yd FG GOOD
+2.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com