Try the model
MRSH

Marshall 24 at Southern Miss 26

USM
2018 · Week 10 · Nov 3, 2018 · M. M. Roberts Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · USM
modelUSM aheadMRSH aheadconfidence bandkey playUSM scoreMRSH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFUMBLETDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 8:40 · Robert LeFevre punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Quez Watkins at the SOUMISS 31 SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Nicario Harper) to the SoMis 16
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+24.0+12.00−12.0−24.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 58Home team on offense−1.3Pregame prior−3.7Garbage-time factor+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.9Score differential−1.5Blowout margin+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. FUMBLE · Q2 5:04: Zac Everett run for a loss of 5 yards Zac Everett fumbled, forced by Obi Obialo, recovered by Marsh Brenden Knox , return for 8 yds (Justin Rohrwasser KICK) — MRSH win probability +12.0 pts (now 64%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:48: Tate Whatley pass complete to Quez Watkins for 4 yds for a TD (Parker Shaunfield KICK) — USM win probability +13.7 pts (now 55%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:36: Anthony Anderson run for 2 yds for a TD (Justin Rohrwasser KICK) — MRSH win probability +16.4 pts (now 56%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 7:13: Tate Whatley run for 1 yd for a TD (Parker Shaunfield PAT MISSED) — USM win probability +17.7 pts (now 90%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:11: Isaiah Green pass complete to Artie Henry III for 15 yds for a TD (Justin Rohrwasser KICK) — MRSH win probability +27.1 pts (now 32%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USM made the numbers' call on 9 of 10MRSH made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 10:38USM 4th & 4 at MRSH 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    46.3%−0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    46.2%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:25USM 4th & 11 at MRSH 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.5%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.6%
    58% to make
    Punt
    45.7%−0.9
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:18MRSH 4th & 8 at MRSH 45, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.8%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:35USM 4th & 7 at USM 7, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.1%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.4%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:00MRSH 4th & 7 at USM 7, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 50.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.1%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.3%
    91% to make
    Punt
    47.1%−3.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:54USM 4th & 7 at USM 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.6%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:06MRSH 4th & 10 at USM 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.2%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    50.8%−0.7
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    51.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:31USM 4th & 11 at USM 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.7%−0.8
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.5%
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:40MRSH 4th & 16 at MRSH 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.7%−1.8
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.5%
    average punt
  10. Q2 5:04USM 4th & 13 at USM 13, tied
    Numbers favored punt by 2.3 ptsWent for it · 49.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.2%−2.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    49.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 15:00MRSH 4th & 4 at MRSH 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.0%−1.0
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:55USM 4th & 1 at MRSH 34, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    62.0%−3.5
    47% to make
    Punt
    61.2%−4.3
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:28USM 4th & 13 at USM 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.1%−3.7
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.8%
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:58USM 4th & 6 at MRSH 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.3%−0.5
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.8%
    91% to make
    Punt
    42.6%−12.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:50MRSH 4th & 19 at USM 32, down 3
    Numbers favored field goal by 2.2 ptsPunted · 34.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.4%−4.0
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    34.4%
    51% to make
    PuntTheir call
    32.2%−2.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:17USM 4th & 2 at USM 12, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.7%−0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.8%
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:08MRSH 4th & 12 at USM 48, down 9
    Close callWent for it · 8.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.2%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USM made the numbers' call on 2 of 2MRSH made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q2 0:48USM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 8:36MRSH Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 7:13USM Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    90.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.9%−0.4
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 1:11MRSH Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 1.7 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.7%−1.7
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USMDrive 1FG
15 plays · 39 yds · 7:3544% → 47%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+18
44.2%
Tate Whatley run for 18 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
50
0
44.2%
Tate Whatley run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
50
+5
44.2%
Steven Anderson run for 5 yds to the Marsh 45Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+6
44.2%
Tate Whatley pass complete to Steven Anderson for 6 yds to the Marsh 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
44.2%
Tate Whatley pass complete to Tim Jones for 5 yds to the Marsh 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 34
0
44.2%
Trivenskey Mosley run for no gain to the Marsh 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 34
+1
44.2%
Trivenskey Mosley run for 1 yd to the Marsh 33Similar
Q1 10:38
4TH & 4
OPP 33
+5
45.6%
Tate Whatley pass complete to Quez Watkins for 5 yds to the Marsh 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
46.0%
Tate Whatley run for 4 yds to the Marsh 24Similar
Q1 10:38
2ND & 6
OPP 24
-6
46.0%
Tate Whatley run for a loss of 6 yards to the Marsh 30Similar
Q1 10:38
3RD & 12
OPP 30
-5
45.5%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, DQ (-5 Yards) to the Marsh 35Similar
Q1 10:38
3RD & 17
OPP 35
+6
45.5%
Tate Whatley run for 6 yds to the Marsh 29Similar
Q1 7:25
4TH & 11
OPP 29
+45
46.6%
Parker Shaunfield 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
Q1 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+11
46.8%
Alex Thomson pass complete to Obi Obialo for 11 yds to the Marsh 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
46.4%
Keion Davis run for no gain to the Marsh 43Similar
Q1 7:18
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+2
46.6%
Alex Thomson pass complete to Marcel Williams for 2 yds to the Marsh 45Similar
Q1 7:18
3RD & 8
OWN 45
0
46.7%
Alex Thomson pass incomplete to Keion DavisSimilar
Q1 7:18
4TH & 8
OWN 45
0
47.2%
Robert LeFevre punt for 49 yds , Quez Watkins returns for no gain to the SoMis 4 Quez Watkins fumbled, recovered by SoMis Quez Watkins , return for 4 yds to the SoMis 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0047% → 46%
Q1 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+4
47.1%
Steven Anderson run for 4 yds to the SoMis 8Similar
Q1 5:35
2ND & 6
OWN 8
-1
47.0%
Steven Anderson run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 7Similar
Q1 5:35
3RD & 7
OWN 7
0
46.6%
Tate Whatley pass incomplete to Tim Jones SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 5:35
4TH & 7
OWN 7
+7
46.3%
Zac Everett punt for 29 yds , Marcel Williams returns for 7 yds to the SoMis 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 4FG
12 plays · 22 yds · 3:4854% → 54%
Q1 3:48
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
46.4%
Alex Thomson pass complete to Armani Levias for no gain to the SoMis 29Similar
Q1 3:48
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
46.6%
Alex Thomson pass incomplete to Obi Obialo, broken up by Rachuan MitchellSimilar
Q1 3:02
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+11
47.8%
Alex Thomson run for 11 yds to the SoMis 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
46.3%
Alex Thomson pass complete to Obi Obialo for 6 yds to the SoMis 12Similar
Q1 2:27
2ND & 4
OPP 12
+2
46.3%
Anthony Anderson run for 2 yds to the SoMis 10Similar
Q1 2:27
3RD & 2
OPP 10
+3
46.8%
Anthony Anderson run for 3 yds to the SoMis 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
46.3%
Anthony Anderson run for no gain to the SoMis 7Similar
Q1 2:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
46.3%
Alex Thomson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:27
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
46.8%
Alex Thomson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
45.9%
Justin Rohrwasser 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 0:0048% → 47%
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-1
47.9%
Tate Whatley run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 16Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 11
OWN 16
0
47.7%
Tate Whatley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 11
OWN 16
+11
47.1%
Tate Whatley pass complete to Trivenskey Mosley for 11 yds to the SoMis 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-3
48.0%
Trivenskey Mosley run for a loss of 3 yards to the SoMis 24Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 13
OWN 24
0
47.6%
Tate Whatley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 13
OWN 24
+6
47.0%
Trivenskey Mosley run for 6 yds to the SoMis 30Similar
Q2 14:54
4TH & 7
OWN 30
0
46.7%
Zac Everett punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Marcel Williams at the Marsh 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 30 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
Q2 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+30
47.1%
Alex Thomson pass complete to Marcel Williams for 30 yds to the SoMis 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
45.0%
Alex Thomson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:06
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
45.1%
Anthony Anderson run for no gain to the SoMis 45Similar
Q2 12:06
3RD & 10
OPP 45
0
46.0%
Alex Thomson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:06
4TH & 10
OPP 45
0
47.1%
Robert LeFevre punt for 19 yds, downed at the SoMis 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0049% → 47%
Q2 10:31
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
49.1%
Trivenskey Mosley run for 1 yd to the SoMis 27Similar
Q2 10:31
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+2
48.8%
Tate Whatley run for 2 yds to the SoMis 29Similar
Q2 10:31
3RD & 7
OWN 29
-4
48.2%
Tate Whatley pass complete to Trivenskey Mosley for a loss of 4 yards to the SoMis 25Similar
Q2 10:31
4TH & 11
OWN 25
0
47.3%
Zac Everett punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:0054% → 51%
Q2 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
45.6%
Keion Davis run for 1 yd to the Marsh 42Similar
Q2 8:40
2ND & 9
OWN 42
-7
45.9%
Alex Thomson sacked by Jeremy Sangster for a loss of 7 yards to the Marsh 35Similar
Q2 8:40
3RD & 16
OWN 35
0
48.4%
Alex Thomson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:40
4TH & 16
OWN 35
+49
48.9%
Robert LeFevre punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Quez Watkins at the SOUMISS 31 SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Nicario Harper) to the SoMis 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 9FUMBLE TD
4 plays · -8 yds · 2:0750% → 37%
Q2 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
49.8%
Tate Whatley pass complete to Quez Watkins for 1 yd to the SoMis 17Similar
Q2 7:11
2ND & 9
OWN 17
+5
49.6%
Tate Whatley run for 5 yds to the SoMis 22Similar
Q2 7:11
3RD & 4
OWN 22
-9
48.6%
Tate Whatley sacked by Chase Hancock for a loss of 9 yards to the SoMis 13Similar
Q2 5:04
4TH & 13
OWN 13
+8
36.5%
Zac Everett run for a loss of 5 yards Zac Everett fumbled, forced by Obi Obialo, recovered by Marsh Brenden Knox , return for 8 yds (Justin Rohrwasser KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 10FUMBLE
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0038% → 39%
Q2 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
38.2%
Tate Whatley pass incomplete to Quez WatkinsSimilar
Q2 4:53
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+6
37.9%
Tate Whatley pass complete to Jordan Mitchell for 6 yds to the SoMis 38Similar
Q2 4:53
3RD & 4
OWN 38
+2
38.9%
Tate Whatley run for a loss of 4 yards to the SoMis 34 Tate Whatley fumbled, forced by Ryan Bee, recovered by Marsh Chris Jackson , return for 2 yds to the SoMis 34 Chris Jackson fumbled, forced by Ryan Bee, recovered by Marsh Chris JacksonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 11INT
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q2 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
33.9%
Keion Davis run for 1 yd to the SoMis 35Similar
Q2 3:40
2ND & 9
OPP 35
+49
33.8%
Alex Thomson pass intercepted Ty Williams return for 49 yds to the Marsh 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 12TD
5 plays · 46 yds · 2:1041% → 55%
Q2 2:58
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+29
40.5%
De'Michael Harris run for 29 yds to the Marsh 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:58
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
41.7%
Tate Whatley run for 2 yds to the Marsh 15Similar
Q2 2:58
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+10
41.7%
Tate Whatley run for 10 yds to the Marsh 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
41.7%
Steven Anderson run for 1 yd to the Marsh 4Similar
Q2 0:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
55.4%
Tate Whatley pass complete to Quez Watkins for 4 yds for a TD (Parker Shaunfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 13FUMBLE TD
2 plays · -10 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+17
62.5%
Isaiah Green sacked by Jacques Turner for a loss of 10 yards Isaiah Green fumbled, recovered by SoMis Darian Yancey , return for 0 yards , return for 17 yds (Parker Shaunfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
62.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Marsh 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0037% → 36%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
62.7%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Obi Obialo for 4 yds to the Marsh 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
62.0%
Keion Davis run for 2 yds to the Marsh 31Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
62.8%
Isaiah Green pass incomplete to Marcel WilliamsSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
63.9%
Robert LeFevre punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Quez Watkins at the SoMis 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 16DOWNS
10 plays · 31 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q3 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
64.9%
Tate Whatley pass complete to De'Michael Harris for 3 yds to the SoMis 38Similar
Q3 13:55
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+8
66.4%
Tate Whatley run for 8 yds to the SoMis 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-15
66.9%
MOSLEY, T. rush up middle for no gain to the USM46 (TYLER, Ty), PENALTY USM face mask 15 yards to the USM31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:55
1ST & 25
OWN 31
0
64.6%
Tate Whatley pass incomplete to Quez WatkinsSimilar
Q3 13:55
2ND & 25
OWN 31
+3
64.4%
Tate Whatley pass complete to Trivenskey Mosley for 3 yds to the SoMis 34Similar
Q3 13:55
3RD & 22
OWN 34
+23
63.2%
Tate Whatley run for 9 yds to the Marsh 43 for a 1ST down MARSHALL Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Donyae Moody) to the Marsh 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
67.1%
Tate Whatley pass incomplete to Jordan MitchellSimilar
Q3 13:55
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+5
66.9%
Tate Whatley pass complete to Steven Anderson for 5 yds to the Marsh 38Similar
Q3 13:55
3RD & 5
OPP 38
+4
66.2%
Steven Anderson run for 4 yds to the Marsh 34Similar
Q3 13:55
4TH & 1
OPP 34
0
65.1%
Steven Anderson run for no gain to the Marsh 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 17TD
4 plays · 66 yds · 0:5335% → 56%
Q3 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
65.2%
Isaiah Green pass incomplete to Tyre BradySimilar
Q3 9:29
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+53
65.7%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Marcel Williams for 53 yds to the SoMis 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:29
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+11
60.4%
Keion Davis run for 11 yds to the SoMis 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
44.0%
Anthony Anderson run for 2 yds for a TD (Justin Rohrwasser KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 18PUNT
11 plays · 11 yds · 0:0053% → 50%
Q3 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-5
52.8%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the SoMis 19Similar
Q3 8:28
1ST & 15
OWN 19
-5
52.4%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, false start (Bryce Foxworth) to the SoMis 14Similar
Q3 8:28
1ST & 20
OWN 14
+12
52.4%
Tate Whatley pass complete to Quez Watkins for 12 yds to the SoMis 26Similar
Q3 8:28
2ND & 8
OWN 26
-3
53.0%
Tate Whatley run for a loss of 3 yards to the SoMis 23Similar
Q3 8:28
3RD & 11
OWN 23
+15
50.7%
WHATLEY, Tate sideline pass incomplete to TERRY, Trevor (GILMORE, Steven), PENALTY MAR pass interference (GILMORE, Steven) 15 yards to the USM38, 1ST DOWN USM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
54.5%
Tate Whatley pass complete to Tim Jones for 6 yds to the SoMis 44Similar
Q3 8:28
2ND & 4
OWN 44
-2
56.2%
Tate Whatley run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 42Similar
Q3 8:28
3RD & 6
OWN 42
-2
54.0%
Tate Whatley run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 40Similar
Q3 8:28
4TH & 8
OWN 40
-5
51.6%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, false start (Nicario Harper) to the SoMis 35Similar
Q3 8:28
4TH & 13
OWN 35
0
50.2%
Zac Everett punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Marsh 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 19INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0051% → 50%
Q3 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
49.5%
Isaiah Green pass incomplete to Tyre Brady, broken up by Ty WilliamsSimilar
Q3 4:57
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+30
49.7%
Isaiah Green pass intercepted Ky'el Hemby return for 30 yds to the Marsh 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 20FG
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:4159% → 62%
Q3 4:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
59.1%
Tate Whatley sacked by Omari Cobb for a loss of 5 yards to the Marsh 14Similar
Q3 4:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 14
+8
58.2%
Tate Whatley pass complete to Jay'Shawn Washington for 8 yds to the Marsh 6Similar
Q3 4:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
57.5%
Tate Whatley pass incomplete to Jordan MitchellSimilar
Q3 2:58
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
62.1%
Parker Shaunfield 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 21PUNT
14 plays · 43 yds · 4:0839% → 34%
Q3 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
60.9%
Anthony Anderson run for 5 yds to the Marsh 30Similar
Q3 2:58
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
59.7%
Anthony Anderson run for 1 yd to the Marsh 31Similar
Q3 2:58
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+9
61.0%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Marcel Williams for 9 yds to the Marsh 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
58.5%
Isaiah Green pass incomplete to Marcel WilliamsSimilar
Q3 2:58
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+4
59.3%
Anthony Anderson run for 4 yds to the Marsh 44Similar
Q3 2:58
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+33
58.4%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Marcel Williams for 33 yds to the SoMis 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-10
54.5%
GREEN, Isaiah flair pass complete to ANDERSON, A. for 6 yards to the USM17 (TURNER, Jacques), PENALTY MAR illegal block (BRADY, Tyre) 10 yards to the USM33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:39
1ST & 20
OPP 33
+1
56.4%
Anthony Anderson run for 1 yd to the SoMis 32Similar
Q4 14:39
2ND & 19
OPP 32
0
57.6%
Isaiah Green pass incomplete to Tyre BradySimilar
Q4 13:50
3RD & 19
OPP 32
0
62.5%
Isaiah Green pass incomplete to Tyre BradySimilar
Q4 13:50
4TH & 19
OPP 32
0
65.9%
Isaiah Green punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Ty Williams at the SoMis 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 22TD
17 plays · 94 yds · 6:2366% → 90%
Q4 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+2
65.5%
Trivenskey Mosley run for 2 yds to the SoMis 8Similar
Q4 13:36
2ND & 8
OWN 8
+57
65.2%
Tate Whatley pass complete to Quez Watkins for 57 yds to the Marsh 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-3
71.8%
Trivenskey Mosley run for a loss of 3 yards to the Marsh 38Similar
Q4 13:36
2ND & 13
OPP 38
+6
69.0%
Tate Whatley run for 6 yds to the Marsh 32Similar
Q4 13:36
3RD & 7
OPP 32
+6
70.1%
Tate Whatley pass complete to Jordan Mitchell for 6 yds to the Marsh 26Similar
Q4 13:36
4TH & 1
OPP 26
+5
68.1%
WHATLEY, Tate sideline pass incomplete to WATKINS, Quez, PENALTY MAR offside defense (HAMES, Channing) 5 yards to the MAR21, 1ST DOWN USM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
71.8%
Steven Anderson run for no gain to the Marsh 21Similar
Q4 13:36
2ND & 10
OPP 21
0
71.8%
Tate Whatley pass incomplete to Jordan Mitchell, broken up by Chris JacksonSimilar
Q4 13:36
3RD & 10
OPP 21
+16
70.1%
WHATLEY, Tate deep out pass incomplete to JONES, Tim (COBB, Omari), PENALTY MAR pass interference (COBB, Omari) 16 yards to the MAR5, 1ST DOWN USM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
71.8%
Tate Whatley run for 3 yds to the Marsh 2Similar
Q4 13:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-10
71.8%
WHATLEY, Tate shovel pass complete to WATKINS, Quez for loss of 1 yard to the MAR3 (GANT, Malik), PENALTY USM holding (WASHINGTON, J.) 10 yards to the MAR12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
0
71.7%
Tate Whatley pass incomplete to Jay'Shawn WashingtonSimilar
Q4 13:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
-4
69.8%
Tate Whatley run for a loss of 4 yards to the Marsh 16Similar
Q4 13:36
4TH & GOAL
OPP 16
+14
64.9%
HANKINS, Carter play action pass incomplete to LADNER, Ray (DRAYTON, B.), PENALTY MAR pass interference (DRAYTON, B.) 14 yards to the MAR2, 1ST DOWN USM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
71.8%
Tate Whatley run for 1 yd to the Marsh 1Similar
Q4 13:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
71.8%
Tate Whatley run for no gain to the Marsh 1Similar
Q4 7:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
89.5%
Tate Whatley run for 1 yd for a TD (Parker Shaunfield PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 23FUMBLE
9 plays · 59 yds · 0:0013% → 14%
Q4 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
87.2%
Isaiah Green pass incomplete to Obi ObialoSimilar
Q4 7:11
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+11
87.5%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Obi Obialo for 11 yds to the Marsh 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+22
86.3%
Isaiah Green run for 7 yds to the SOUMISS 45 for a 1ST down SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, ULT (15 Yards) to the SoMis 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
84.3%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Keion Davis for 4 yds to the SoMis 26Similar
Q4 7:11
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+7
83.8%
Keion Davis run for 7 yds to the SoMis 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
83.8%
Isaiah Green pass incomplete to Tyre BradySimilar
Q4 7:11
2ND & 10
OPP 19
-2
84.3%
Isaiah Green run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 21Similar
Q4 7:11
3RD & 12
OPP 21
+11
86.1%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Tyre Brady for 11 yds Tyre Brady fumbled, forced by Darius Kennedy, recovered by SoMis Racheem Boothe SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct ( Yards) to the SoMis 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 24PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 1:0291% → 95%
Q4 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+4
90.5%
Steven Anderson run for 4 yds to the SoMis 8Similar
Q4 4:13
2ND & 6
OWN 8
+5
92.1%
Steven Anderson run for 5 yds to the SoMis 13Similar
Q4 4:02
3RD & 1
OWN 13
-1
92.4%
Tate Whatley run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 12Similar
Q4 3:17
4TH & 2
OWN 12
0
95.2%
Zac Everett punt for 34 yds, downed at the SoMis 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 25TD
11 plays · 46 yds · 1:576% → 32%
Q4 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-2
94.3%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Xavier Gaines for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 48Similar
Q4 3:08
2ND & 12
OPP 48
0
94.5%
Isaiah Green pass incomplete to Keion DavisSimilar
Q4 3:08
3RD & 12
OPP 48
0
95.0%
Isaiah Green pass incomplete to Marcel WilliamsSimilar
Q4 3:08
4TH & 12
OPP 48
+15
95.5%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Marcel Williams for 15 yds to the SoMis 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
93.7%
Isaiah Green pass incomplete to Willie JohnsonSimilar
Q4 3:08
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
93.9%
Isaiah Green pass incomplete to Keion DavisSimilar
Q4 3:08
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+13
94.4%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Keion Davis for 13 yds to the SoMis 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-3
93.5%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Marcel Williams for a loss of 3 yards to the SoMis 23Similar
Q4 3:08
2ND & 13
OPP 23
-7
94.0%
Isaiah Green sacked by Sherrod Ruff for a loss of 7 yards to the SoMis 30Similar
Q4 3:08
3RD & 20
OPP 30
+15
94.9%
GREEN, Isaiah deep pass incomplete to WILLIAMS, M., PENALTY USM pass interference (WILLIAMS, Ty) 15 yards to the USM15, 1ST DOWN MAR, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
67.8%
Isaiah Green pass complete to Artie Henry III for 15 yds for a TD (Justin Rohrwasser KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 26END OF GAME
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:0090% → 89%
Q4 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
89.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Marsh 46Similar
Q4 1:02
2ND & 11
OPP 46
-1
89.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Marsh 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:11
Isaiah Green pass complete to Artie Henry III for 15 yds for a TD (Justin Rohrwasser KICK)
-27.1
TD · Q4 7:13
Tate Whatley run for 1 yd for a TD (Parker Shaunfield PAT MISSED)
+17.7
TD · Q3 8:36
Anthony Anderson run for 2 yds for a TD (Justin Rohrwasser KICK)
-16.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com