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Win probability · UTEP
modelUTEP aheadUAB aheadconfidence bandkey playUTEP scoreUAB score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:18 · Tyler Johnston III run for 2 yds to the UAB 25
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- KEY PLAY · Q3 8:20: Treyvon Hughes run for a loss of 2 yards to the UAB 41 — UTEP win probability +3.5 pts (now 18%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 1:06: FILLEY, Jason field goal attempt from 36 GOOD, clock 01:06, PENALTY UTEP illegal formation 5 yards to the UAB23, NO PLAY. — UAB win probability +2.9 pts (now 85%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 1:01: Spencer Brown run for 4 yds to the UAB 27 — UAB win probability +2.6 pts (now 89%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 11:19: Jarrion Street run for 8 yds to the UAB 45 — UAB win probability +4.2 pts (now 92%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
- TD · Q4 4:10: Tyler Johnston III run for 4 yds for a TD (Nick Vogel KICK) — UAB win probability +6.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UTEP made the numbers' call on 8 of 10UAB made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
- Q1 15:00UAB 4th & 8 at UAB 27, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 81.6% before the snapGo for it81.6%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call81.7%average punt
- Q1 12:34UTEP 4th & 1 at midfield, tiedClose callPunted · 19.7% before the snapGo for it19.7%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call19.6%−0.2average punt
- Q1 9:53UTEP 4th & 16 at UTEP 29, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.5% before the snapGo for it19.4%−0.215% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call19.6%average punt
- Q1 2:00UAB 4th & 5 at UTEP 19, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.0% before the snapGo for it78.9%−0.140% to convertField goalTheir call79.0%77% to makePunt77.0%−2.0average punt
- Q2 15:00UTEP 4th & 9 at UTEP 38, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.8% before the snapGo for it19.8%−0.232% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call20.0%average punt
- Q2 10:32UAB 4th & 5 at UTEP 23, up 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.7% before the snapGo for it78.4%−<0.140% to convertField goalTheir call78.4%70% to makePunt76.2%−2.2average punt
- Q2 7:44UTEP 4th & 13 at UAB 41, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.8% before the snapGo for it19.7%−0.221% to convertField goal19.8%−0.132% to makePuntTheir call19.9%average punt
- Q2 7:37UAB 4th & 5 at UAB 37, up 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.3% before the snapGo for it79.2%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call79.3%average punt
- Q2 4:36UTEP 4th & 7 at UTEP 43, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.3% before the snapGo for it20.1%−0.337% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call20.3%average punt
- Q3 15:00UTEP 4th & 11 at UTEP 24, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.7% before the snapGo for it18.4%−1.125% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call19.5%average punt
- Q3 9:29UAB 4th & 1 at UTEP 1, up 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call79.4%59% to convertField goal77.3%−2.194% to makePunt71.5%−7.9average punt
- Q3 8:20UTEP 4th & 17 at UAB 46, down 12Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.4% before the snapGo for it16.8%−1.514% to convertField goal17.1%−1.223% to makePuntTheir call18.3%average punt
- Q3 6:30UAB 4th & 7 at UAB 15, up 12Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.5% before the snapGo for it82.7%−1.435% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call84.1%average punt
- Q3 1:01UTEP 4th & 15 at UAB 23, down 12Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.1% before the snapGo for it13.4%−1.616% to convertField goalTheir call14.9%70% to makePunt10.2%−4.7average punt
- Q4 15:00UAB 4th & 6 at UAB 39, up 12Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.2% before the snapGo for it88.3%−0.340% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call88.6%average punt
- Q4 13:27UTEP 4th & 11 at UTEP 21, down 12Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.6% before the snapGo for it12.7%−1.725% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call14.4%average punt
- Q4 4:10UTEP 4th & 6 at UTEP 39, down 19Close callPunted · 2.2% before the snapGo for it1.8%40% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.6%−0.2average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UAB made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
- Q1 9:53UAB Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call79.7%97% to makeGo for two79.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 4:10UAB Touchdown, up 18 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call97.9%−0.397% to makeGo for two98.2%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUABDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q1 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+15
13.1%
Kyle Greenwell punt for 47 yds , Terry Juniel returns for 15 yds to the UTEP 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 2PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 1:0914% → 14%
Q1 13:43
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+6
13.7%
Kai Locksley pass complete to Keynan Foster for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 3TD6 plays · 85 yds · 2:3486% → 86%
Q1 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+29
14.1%
Andre Wilson run for 14 yds to the UTEP 49 for a 1ST down UTEP Penalty, personal foul (Jamar Smith) to the UTEP 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 4PUNT7 plays · 4 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q1 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
14.4%
Kai Locksley pass complete to Terry Juniel for 5 yds to the UTEP 30Similar
Q1 9:53
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+5
14.5%
UAB Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the UTEP 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-9
14.5%
Kai Locksley sacked by Fitzgerald Mofor for a loss of 9 yards to the UTEP 26Similar
Q1 9:53
2ND & 19
OWN 26
-1
14.4%
Kai Locksley pass complete to Treyvon Hughes for a loss of 1 yard to the UTEP 25Similar
Q1 9:53
4TH & 16
OWN 29
+9
14.2%
Mitchell Crawford punt for 55 yds , Andre Wilson returns for 9 yds to the UAB 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 5FG12 plays · 56 yds · 5:0385% → 85%
Q1 7:03
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+10
14.8%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Hayden Pittman for 10 yds to the UAB 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:03
2ND & 1
OPP 40
+5
14.5%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Hayden Pittman for 5 yds to the UTEP 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+9
14.5%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Andre Wilson for 9 yds to the UTEP 26Similar
Q1 7:03
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
14.5%
A.J. Erdely pass incomplete to Hayden Pittman UAB Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 6PUNT9 plays · 13 yds · 2:0015% → 15%
Q1 2:00
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+11
15.1%
Kai Locksley pass complete to David Lucero for 11 yds to the UTEP 32Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 32
0
15.6%
Kai Locksley pass incomplete to Terry Juniel, broken up by Craig KanyangararaSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 32
+6
15.5%
Kai Locksley pass complete to Erik Brown for 6 yds to the UTEP 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 7MISSED FG8 plays · 46 yds · 3:3784% → 84%
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+10
16.0%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Andre Wilson for 10 yds to the UAB 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+14
15.6%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Donnie Lee for 14 yds to the UTEP 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-2
15.6%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Donnie Lee for a loss of 2 yards to the UTEP 47Similar
Q2 14:09
2ND & 12
OPP 47
+19
15.7%
Garrett Marino run for 4 yds to the UTEP 43 for a 1ST down UTEP Penalty, personal foul (Sione Tupou) to the UTEP 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:32
4TH & 5
OPP 23
+40
16.5%
Nick Vogel 40 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Denzel Chukwukelu Denzel Chukwukelu return for no gain to the UTEP 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 8PUNT10 plays · 31 yds · 2:4816% → 16%
Q2 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+18
16.3%
Kai Locksley pass complete to Josh Weeks for 18 yds to the UTEP 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:32
3RD & 16
OWN 40
+22
16.0%
Kai Locksley pass complete to Quardraiz Wadley for 7 yds to the UAB 47 for a 1ST down UAB Penalty, personal foul (Garrett Marino) to the UAB 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:32
3RD & 6
OPP 34
-2
17.2%
Brandon Jones pass complete to Keynan Foster for a loss of 2 yards to the UAB 36Similar
Q2 7:44
4TH & 13
OPP 41
0
16.1%
Mitchell Crawford punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Andre Wilson at the UAB 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 9PUNT8 plays · 29 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
UTEPDrive 10PUNT8 plays · 25 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
17.4%
Brandon Jones pass incomplete to Keynan Foster, broken up by Dy'jonn TurnerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 11END OF HALF2 plays · 12 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
UTEPDrive 12PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0017% → 16%
UABDrive 13DOWNS9 plays · 39 yds · 3:3184% → 82%
Q3 13:00
2ND & 1
OPP 32
+15
15.9%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Collin Lisa for 15 yds to the UTEP 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 14SF1 play · -2 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q3 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
15.8%
Quardraiz Wadley run for a loss of 1 yard for a SAFETY Quardraiz Wadley fumbled, forced by Anthony Rush, recovered by UTEP Brandon Jones for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 15INT3 plays · 9 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
UTEPDrive 16PUNT4 plays · -7 yds · 0:0018% → 16%
Q3 8:20
2ND & 12
OPP 41
+10
17.1%
Brandon Jones pass complete to Treyvon Hughes for 10 yds to the UAB 31Similar
Q3 8:20
3RD & 2
OPP 31
-15
17.5%
Treyvon Hughes run for no gain to the UAB 31 UTEP Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Markos Lujan) to the UAB 46Similar
Q3 8:20
4TH & 17
OPP 46
0
15.7%
Mitchell Crawford punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UAB 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 17PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0086% → 85%
UTEPDrive 18MISSED FG10 plays · 40 yds · 4:0116% → 14%
Q3 5:02
2ND & 11
OWN 36
+13
15.9%
Brandon Jones pass complete to Warren Redix for 13 yds to the UTEP 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+15
16.8%
JONES, Brandon sideline pass incomplete to JUNIEL,Terry, dropped pass, PENALTY UAB face mask (GARCIA-WILLIAMS) 15 yards to the UAB36, 1ST DOWN UTEP, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:02
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+18
17.2%
Brandon Jones pass complete to Terry Juniel for 18 yds to the UAB 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:02
3RD & 7
OPP 15
-3
17.5%
Brandon Jones sacked by Jalen Rayam for a loss of 3 yards to the UAB 18Similar
Q3 1:06
4TH & 10
OPP 18
-5
14.6%
FILLEY, Jason field goal attempt from 36 GOOD, clock 01:06, PENALTY UTEP illegal formation 5 yards to the UAB23, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 19PUNT8 plays · 16 yds · 1:0189% → 89%
Q3 1:01
2ND & 6
OWN 27
-14
11.3%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Spencer Brown for 1 yd to the UAB 28 UAB Penalty, Offensive holding (-15 Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 1:01
2ND & 20
OWN 13
+5
11.5%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Spencer Brown for 5 yds to the UAB 18Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 39
0
10.3%
Tyler Johnston III pass incomplete to Xavier Ubosi, broken up by Kahani SmithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 20PUNT4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0013% → 12%
Q4 13:27
4TH & 11
OWN 21
0
12.4%
Mitchell Crawford punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Andre Wilson at the UAB 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 21TD12 plays · 63 yds · 7:0992% → 99%
Q4 11:19
3RD & 5
OPP 47
+7
7.8%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Xavier Ubosi for 7 yds to the UTEP 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 22PUNT6 plays · 14 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
2.1%
Brandon Jones pass complete to Warren Redix for 10 yds to the UTEP 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 23END OF GAME3 plays · 7 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:10
Tyler Johnston III run for 4 yds for a TD (Nick Vogel KICK)
-6.2
KEY PLAY · Q4 11:19
Jarrion Street run for 8 yds to the UAB 45
-4.2
KEY PLAY · Q3 8:20
Treyvon Hughes run for a loss of 2 yards to the UAB 41
+3.5