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USM

Southern Miss 17 at Charlotte 20

CLT
2018 · Week 9 · Oct 27, 2018 · Jerry Richardson Stadium
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Win probability · CLT
modelCLT aheadUSM aheadconfidence bandkey playCLT scoreUSM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 3:53 · Jack Abraham run for 10 yds to the Charl 26
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 118Home team on offense+24.8Score differential+16.8Pregame prior−3.9Garbage-time factor+5.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+6.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 8:18: Hasaan Klugh run for 5 yds for a TD (Jonathan Cruz KICK) — CLT win probability +4.9 pts (now 44%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 0:00: Jack Abraham pass intercepted for a TD Juwan Foggie return for 79 yds for a TD (Jonathan Cruz KICK) — CLT win probability +9.0 pts (now 53%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q2 15:00: Jonathan Cruz kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback — CLT win probability +12.7 pts (now 66%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 10:12: Jonathan Cruz 40 yd FG GOOD — CLT win probability +3.0 pts (now 91%) (top driver: CLT has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 5:58: Parker Shaunfield 38 yd FG GOOD — CLT win probability +3.2 pts (now 93%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CLT made the numbers' call on 6 of 8USM made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00USM 4th & 3 at USM 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.3%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:18USM 4th & 5 at USM 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.9%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:16CLT 4th & 9 at CLT 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.4%−0.6
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.1%
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00USM 4th & 15 at USM 20, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.6%−1.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:05USM 4th & 19 at CLT 19, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.0%−2.6
    10% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.6%
    77% to make
    Punt
    19.1%−6.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:05CLT 4th & 16 at CLT 14, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.0%−4.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:23CLT 4th & 17 at CLT 12, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.9%−4.9
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:39USM 4th & 5 at CLT 41, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.3%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    16.3%−<0.1
    32% to make
    Punt
    15.5%−0.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:12CLT 4th & 22 at USM 23, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.8%−1.5
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.3%
    70% to make
    Punt
    87.1%−3.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:58USM 4th & 8 at CLT 21, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.4%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.0%
    74% to make
    Punt
    2.7%−4.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:58CLT 4th & 2 at CLT 26, up 21
    Close callPunted · 92.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.2%−0.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:53USM 4th & 11 at CLT 36, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.3%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    5.5%
    42% to make
    Punt
    5.2%−0.3
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00CLT 4th & 12 at CLT 36, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.6%−0.6
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:34USM 4th & 5 at CLT 43, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.6%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    1.4%−0.1
    28% to make
    Punt
    1.5%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:19CLT 4th & 9 at USM 22, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.0%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.1%
    72% to make
    Punt
    98.5%−0.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:11CLT 4th & 3 at USM 33, up 21
    Close callWent for it · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.5%−0.1
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    99.6%
    49% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CLT made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 8:18CLT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:00CLT Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USMDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+12
37.8%
Trivenskey Mosley run for 12 yds to the SoMis 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
37.8%
Trivenskey Mosley run for 4 yds to the SoMis 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+3
37.8%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Trivenskey Mosley for 3 yds to the SoMis 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 34
0
37.8%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Quez WatkinsSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 34
0
37.8%
Zac Everett punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Mark Quattlebaum at the Charl 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 2TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 5:0338% → 44%
Q1 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
38.4%
Evan Shirreffs pass complete to Workpeh Kofa for 10 yds to the Charl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
38.4%
Benny LeMay run for 2 yds to the Charl 37Similar
Q1 13:21
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+3
38.4%
Benny LeMay run for 3 yds to the Charl 40Similar
Q1 13:21
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+11
38.4%
Evan Shirreffs pass complete to Chris Phillips for 11 yds to the SoMis 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
38.6%
Evan Shirreffs run for 8 yds to the SoMis 41Similar
Q1 13:21
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+6
38.6%
Benny LeMay run for 6 yds to the SoMis 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
38.6%
Evan Shirreffs pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:21
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+17
38.6%
Evan Shirreffs pass complete to Victor Tucker for 17 yds to the SoMis 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:21
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
38.6%
Benny LeMay run for 6 yds to the SoMis 12Similar
Q1 13:21
2ND & 4
OPP 12
+1
38.6%
Benny LeMay run for 1 yd to the SoMis 11Similar
Q1 13:21
3RD & 3
OPP 11
+6
38.6%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (6 Yards) to the SoMis 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
43.5%
Hasaan Klugh run for 5 yds for a TD (Jonathan Cruz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 4 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
Q1 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
42.6%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, personal foul (Jack Abraham) to the SoMis 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
42.7%
Trivenskey Mosley run for no gain to the SoMis 13Similar
Q1 8:18
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+11
42.7%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Quez Watkins for 11 yds to the SoMis 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-4
42.6%
Trivenskey Mosley run for a loss of 4 yards to the SoMis 20Similar
Q1 8:18
2ND & 14
OWN 20
+9
42.7%
Trivenskey Mosley run for 9 yds to the SoMis 29Similar
Q1 8:18
3RD & 5
OWN 29
0
42.7%
Jack Abraham run for no gain to the SoMis 29Similar
Q1 8:18
4TH & 5
OWN 29
0
43.0%
Zac Everett punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Charl 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:2545% → 45%
Q1 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-10
44.7%
LEMAY, Benny rush for 1 yard to the CHA31 (BOOTHE, Racheem), PENALTY CHA holding (DRAKE, Darren) 10 yards to the CHA20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:16
1ST & 20
OWN 20
+7
45.4%
Evan Shirreffs run for 7 yds to the Charl 27Similar
Q1 5:16
2ND & 13
OWN 27
+4
45.3%
Evan Shirreffs pass complete to Mark Quattlebaum for 4 yds to the Charl 31Similar
Q1 5:16
3RD & 9
OWN 31
0
45.1%
Evan Shirreffs pass incomplete to Victor TuckerSimilar
Q1 5:16
4TH & 9
OWN 31
+20
44.8%
Kyle Corbett punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SoMis 45 , Quez Watkins returns for 20 yds to the SoMis 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 5INT TD
7 plays · 32 yds · 3:4355% → 47%
Q1 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
45.3%
Jack Abraham pass complete to De'Michael Harris for 3 yds to the SoMis 48Similar
Q1 3:43
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+7
45.0%
Jack Abraham pass complete to De'Michael Harris for 7 yds to the Charl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
44.8%
Jack Abraham pass complete to De'Michael Harris for 6 yds to the Charl 39Similar
Q1 3:43
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+4
44.8%
Jack Abraham pass complete to De'Michael Harris for 4 yds to the Charl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
44.3%
Steven Anderson run for 3 yds to the Charl 32Similar
Q1 3:43
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+9
44.3%
Steven Anderson run for 9 yds to the Charl 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+79
53.3%
Jack Abraham pass intercepted for a TD Juwan Foggie return for 79 yds for a TD (Jonathan Cruz KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
65.7%
Trivenskey Mosley run for no gain to the SoMis 25Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
66.0%
Jack Abraham run for 4 yds to the SoMis 29Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-9
65.8%
Jack Abraham sacked by Jeff Gemmell for a loss of 9 yards to the SoMis 20Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
66.2%
Zac Everett punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SoMis 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 8INT
5 plays · 21 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q2 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
71.7%
Aaron McAllister run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 12:59
2ND & 11
50
+4
71.5%
Aaron McAllister run for 4 yds to the SoMis 46Similar
Q2 12:59
3RD & 7
OPP 46
+14
71.2%
Hasaan Klugh run for 14 yds to the SoMis 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:59
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
71.8%
Aaron McAllister run for 4 yds to the SoMis 28Similar
Q2 12:59
2ND & 6
OPP 28
0
71.8%
Evan Shirreffs pass intercepted, touchback. Rachuan Mitchell return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 9MISSED FG
8 plays · 61 yds · 3:0526% → 22%
Q2 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
74.2%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Trivenskey Mosley for 3 yds to the SoMis 23Similar
Q2 10:10
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+70
74.3%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for 70 yds to the Charl 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
71.8%
Steven Anderson run for 4 yds to the Charl 3Similar
Q2 8:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
73.9%
ABRAHAM, Jack pass complete to MITCHELL, J. for 3 yards to the CHA0, clock 08:37, PENALTY USM illegal formation 5 yards to the CHA8, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
73.9%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Kris Reed for 3 yds to the Charl 5Similar
Q2 7:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
-14
75.1%
Jack Abraham sacked by Tyler Fain for a loss of 14 yards to the Charl 19Similar
Q2 7:05
4TH & GOAL
OPP 19
+36
78.1%
Parker Shaunfield 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:0081% → 80%
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
81.4%
Benny LeMay run for a loss of 2 yards to the Charl 18Similar
Q2 7:05
2ND & 12
OWN 18
-3
81.2%
Evan Shirreffs pass complete to Victor Tucker for a loss of 3 yards to the Charl 15Similar
Q2 7:05
3RD & 15
OWN 15
-1
81.0%
Benny LeMay run for a loss of 1 yard to the Charl 14Similar
Q2 7:05
4TH & 16
OWN 14
0
80.1%
Kyle Corbett punt for 34 yds, downed at the Charl 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 11INT
5 plays · 20 yds · 0:0021% → 22%
Q2 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-6
78.6%
Jack Abraham sacked by Tyler Fain for a loss of 6 yards to the SoMis 42 Jack Abraham fumbled, recovered by SoMis Ty Pollard , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 5:14
2ND & 20
OWN 42
+15
80.5%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for 15 yds to the Charl 43Similar
Q2 5:14
3RD & 5
OPP 43
+10
78.8%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Quez Watkins for 10 yds to the Charl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
77.8%
CHARLOTTE Penalty, offside defense (Tyler Fain) to the Charl 28Similar
Q2 5:14
1ST & 5
OPP 28
+7
77.6%
Jack Abraham pass intercepted Juwan Foggie return for 7 yds to the Charl 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · -7 yds · 1:4386% → 89%
Q2 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+3
86.4%
Benny LeMay run for 3 yds to the Charl 22Similar
Q2 3:06
2ND & 7
OWN 22
0
86.3%
Aaron McAllister run for no gain to the Charl 22Similar
Q2 2:09
3RD & 7
OWN 22
-5
87.5%
CHARLOTTE Penalty, false start (Victor Tucker) to the Charl 17Similar
Q2 2:09
3RD & 12
OWN 17
-5
87.4%
Aaron McAllister run for a loss of 5 yards to the Charl 12Similar
Q2 1:23
4TH & 17
OWN 12
0
88.5%
Kyle Corbett punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Quez Watkins at the Charl 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 13INT
9 plays · 39 yds · 0:3812% → 13%
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
88.1%
Jack Abraham pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:17
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+5
88.6%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for 5 yds to the Charl 41Similar
Q2 1:17
3RD & 5
OPP 41
0
86.1%
Jack Abraham pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:39
4TH & 5
OPP 41
+8
88.0%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for 8 yds to the Charl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+15
87.8%
ABRAHAM, Jack pass incomplete to WATKINS, Quez, QB hurry by HORNE, Timmy, PENALTY CHA pass interference (ANDERSON, DJ) 15 yards to the CHA18, 1ST DOWN USM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+8
87.3%
Jack Abraham run for 8 yds to the Charl 7 Jack Abraham fumbled, forced by Luke Martin, for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
87.2%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
86.8%
Jack Abraham pass intercepted, touchback. Ben DeLuca return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
90.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Charl 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 15FG
11 plays · 52 yds · 4:4888% → 91%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
88.0%
Evan Shirreffs pass incomplete to Benny LeMaySimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
88.0%
Benny LeMay run for 6 yds to the Charl 31Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+26
87.9%
Evan Shirreffs pass complete to Victor Tucker for 26 yds to the SoMis 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
88.7%
Benny LeMay run for 5 yds to the SoMis 38Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+3
88.7%
Benny LeMay run for 3 yds to the SoMis 35Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+24
88.4%
Benny LeMay run for 24 yds to the SoMis 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-7
88.8%
Hasaan Klugh run for a loss of 7 yards to the SoMis 18Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 17
OPP 18
-8
88.7%
Evan Shirreffs sacked by Sherrod Ruff for a loss of 8 yards to the SoMis 26Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 25
OPP 26
+3
88.3%
Benny LeMay run for 3 yds to the SoMis 23Similar
Q3 10:12
4TH & 22
OPP 23
+40
91.3%
Jonathan Cruz 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 16FG
12 plays · 67 yds · 4:149% → 7%
Q3 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+17
90.6%
Trivenskey Mosley run for 2 yds to the SoMis 14 for a 1ST down CHARLOTTE Penalty, personal foul (Timmy Horne) to the SoMis 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+12
90.2%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Trivenskey Mosley for 12 yds to the SoMis 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
89.9%
Trivenskey Mosley run for 1 yd to the SoMis 42Similar
Q3 10:12
2ND & 9
OWN 42
+7
90.0%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Quez Watkins for 7 yds to the SoMis 49Similar
Q3 10:12
3RD & 2
OWN 49
+10
89.9%
Steven Anderson run for 10 yds to the Charl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+9
89.7%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Quez Watkins for 9 yds to the Charl 32Similar
Q3 10:12
2ND & 1
OPP 32
+9
88.7%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jordan Mitchell for 9 yds to the Charl 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
88.7%
Steven Anderson run for 4 yds to the Charl 19Similar
Q3 10:12
2ND & 6
OPP 19
-2
88.8%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Quez Watkins for a loss of 2 yards to the Charl 21Similar
Q3 10:12
3RD & 8
OPP 21
0
89.8%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to De'Michael HarrisSimilar
Q3 5:58
4TH & 8
OPP 21
+38
93.0%
Parker Shaunfield 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q3 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-2
94.0%
Calvin Camp run for a loss of 2 yards to the Charl 16Similar
Q3 5:58
2ND & 12
OWN 16
+1
93.9%
Evan Shirreffs run for 1 yd to the Charl 17Similar
Q3 5:58
3RD & 11
OWN 17
+9
93.9%
Evan Shirreffs run for 9 yds to the Charl 26Similar
Q3 5:58
4TH & 2
OWN 26
+6
93.6%
Kyle Corbett punt for 44 yds , Ty Williams returns for 6 yds to the SoMis 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 18DOWNS
7 plays · 38 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q3 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
94.7%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Jordan MitchellSimilar
Q3 3:53
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+14
94.7%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Trevor Terry for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:53
1ST & 10
50
+15
94.7%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Trevor Terry for 15 yds to the Charl 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-2
94.1%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for a loss of 2 yards to the Charl 37Similar
Q3 3:53
2ND & 12
OPP 37
0
94.7%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Jordan MitchellSimilar
Q3 3:53
3RD & 12
OPP 37
+1
94.8%
Jack Abraham run for 1 yd to the Charl 36Similar
Q3 3:53
4TH & 11
OPP 36
+10
94.8%
Jack Abraham run for 10 yds to the Charl 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 10 yds · 1:5097% → 97%
Q3 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+12
96.9%
Evan Shirreffs pass complete to Victor Tucker for 12 yds to the Charl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
97.0%
Benny LeMay run for a loss of 1 yard to the Charl 37Similar
Q3 1:50
2ND & 11
OWN 37
+1
96.9%
Evan Shirreffs pass complete to Benny LeMay for 1 yd to the Charl 38Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 38
-2
97.5%
Evan Shirreffs run for a loss of 2 yards to the Charl 36Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 12
OWN 36
0
97.2%
Kyle Corbett punt for 43 yds, downed at the SoMis 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 20TD
10 plays · 79 yds · 4:342% → 2%
Q4 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
97.8%
Tate Whatley run for 8 yds to the SoMis 29Similar
Q4 14:08
2ND & 2
OWN 29
-1
97.7%
Tate Whatley run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 28Similar
Q4 14:08
3RD & 3
OWN 28
+13
97.7%
Tate Whatley run for 13 yds to the SoMis 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
97.7%
Tate Whatley pass incomplete to Quez Watkins, broken up by Ben DeLucaSimilar
Q4 14:08
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+2
97.7%
Tate Whatley pass complete to De'Michael Harris for 2 yds to the SoMis 43Similar
Q4 14:08
3RD & 8
OWN 43
+9
97.7%
Tate Whatley run for 9 yds to the Charl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:08
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
97.6%
Tate Whatley run for 3 yds to the Charl 45Similar
Q4 14:08
2ND & 7
OPP 45
-3
97.6%
Tate Whatley pass complete to De'Michael Harris for a loss of 3 yards to the Charl 48Similar
Q4 14:08
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+5
97.7%
De'Michael Harris run for 5 yds to the Charl 43Similar
Q4 9:34
4TH & 5
OPP 43
+43
98.5%
Tate Whatley pass complete to De'Michael Harris for 43 yds for a TD (Parker Shaunfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 21FG
12 plays · 53 yds · 5:1599% → 100%
Q4 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.5%
Evan Shirreffs pass incomplete to Victor Tucker, broken up by Rachuan MitchellSimilar
Q4 9:34
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
98.5%
Aaron McAllister run for 9 yds to the Charl 34Similar
Q4 8:47
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+13
99.1%
Benny LeMay run for 13 yds to the Charl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:47
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+19
99.1%
Aaron McAllister run for 19 yds to the SoMis 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:47
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
99.1%
Aaron McAllister run for 4 yds to the SoMis 30Similar
Q4 8:47
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+7
99.1%
Aaron McAllister run for 7 yds to the SoMis 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:47
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-2
99.1%
Aaron McAllister run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 25Similar
Q4 8:47
2ND & 12
OPP 25
+3
99.1%
Aaron McAllister run for 3 yds to the SoMis 22Similar
Q4 8:47
3RD & 9
OPP 22
0
99.1%
Evan Shirreffs pass incomplete to Workpeh Kofa, broken up by J.J. JonesSimilar
Q4 4:19
4TH & 9
OPP 22
+39
99.5%
Jonathan Cruz 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 22TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 3:081% → 1%
Q4 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.2%
Tate Whatley run for 1 yd to the SoMis 26Similar
Q4 4:19
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+17
99.2%
Tate Whatley run for 17 yds to the SoMis 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+13
99.2%
Tate Whatley pass complete to Jordan Mitchell for 13 yds to the Charl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:19
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
99.2%
De'Michael Harris run for 1 yd to the Charl 43Similar
Q4 4:19
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+9
99.2%
Trivenskey Mosley run for 9 yds to the Charl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:19
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
99.1%
Trivenskey Mosley run for 4 yds to the Charl 30Similar
Q4 4:19
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+1
99.0%
Quez Watkins run for 1 yd to the Charl 29Similar
Q4 4:19
3RD & 5
OPP 29
+9
99.0%
Tate Whatley pass complete to Trivenskey Mosley for 9 yds to the Charl 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:19
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-5
99.0%
WHATLEY, Tate pass complete to WATKINS, Quez for 7 yards to the CHA13 (ANDERSON, DJ;DELUCA, Ben), PENALTY USM illegal motion 5 yards to the CHA25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:19
1ST & 15
OPP 25
0
99.1%
Tate Whatley pass incomplete to Steven AndersonSimilar
Q4 4:19
2ND & 15
OPP 25
-10
99.1%
WHATLEY, Tate rush for 8 yards to the CHA17 (FAIN, Tyler), PENALTY USM holding (CLOPTON, Trace) 10 yards to the CHA35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:19
2ND & 25
OPP 35
+12
99.1%
Tate Whatley run for 12 yds to the Charl 23Similar
Q4 1:11
3RD & 13
OPP 23
+23
99.4%
Tate Whatley pass complete to Jordan Mitchell for 23 yds for a TD (Parker Shaunfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CLTDrive 23END OF GAME
8 plays · 10 yds · 1:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
99.8%
Benny LeMay run for 4 yds to the SoMis 36Similar
Q4 1:03
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+1
99.8%
Benny LeMay run for 1 yd to the SoMis 35Similar
Q4 0:16
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+2
99.8%
Benny LeMay run for 2 yds to the SoMis 33Similar
Q4 0:11
4TH & 3
OPP 33
+3
99.9%
Benny LeMay run for 3 yds to the SoMis 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q2 15:00
Jonathan Cruz kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
+12.7
TD · Q1 0:00
Jack Abraham pass intercepted for a TD Juwan Foggie return for 79 yds for a TD (Jonathan Cruz KICK)
+9
TD · Q1 8:18
Hasaan Klugh run for 5 yds for a TD (Jonathan Cruz KICK)
+4.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com