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UTSA

UTSA 17 at Southern Miss 27

USM
2018 · Week 8 · Oct 20, 2018 · M. M. Roberts Stadium
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Win probability · USM
modelUSM aheadUTSA aheadconfidence bandkey playUSM scoreUTSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 2:42 · Yannis Routsas punt for 58 yds, downed at the SoMis 2
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+37.5+18.80−18.8−37.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 119Pregame prior+12.8Home team on offense+19.6Garbage-time factor+5.9Score differential+7.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+7.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:40: Steven Anderson run for 2 yds for a TD (Parker Shaunfield KICK) — USM win probability +3.0 pts (now 86%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:04: Jack Abraham pass complete to Jordan Mitchell for 6 yds for a TD Timeout SOUTHERN MISS, clock 00:04 (Parker Shaunfield KICK) — USM win probability +3.3 pts (now 90%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 13:31: Jack Abraham run for 2 yds for a TD (Parker Shaunfield KICK) — USM win probability +4.4 pts (now 97%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 7:39: Jordan Weeks pass complete to Greg Campbell Jr. for 2 yds for a TD (Jared Sackett KICK) — UTSA win probability +5.2 pts (now 9%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:53: Jack Abraham pass intercepted for a TD C.J. Levine return for 8 yds for a TD (Jared Sackett KICK) — UTSA win probability +6.7 pts (now 11%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USM made the numbers' call on 7 of 9UTSA made the numbers' call on 8 of 11
  1. Q1 15:00UTSA 4th & 9 at UTSA 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.1%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:05USM 4th & 2 at UTSA 5, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 83.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.3%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.2%−0.1
    92% to make
    Punt
    82.7%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:58UTSA 4th & 9 at UTSA 35, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.3%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:20USM 4th & 2 at UTSA 31, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 83.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    83.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    83.0%−0.2
    54% to make
    Punt
    82.8%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:52USM 4th & 7 at UTSA 12, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.3%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.5%
    86% to make
    Punt
    79.9%−1.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00UTSA 4th & 16 at UTSA 31, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.7%−0.9
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:11USM 4th & 20 at USM 19, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.2%−0.9
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:26UTSA 4th & 1 at USM 1, down 6
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsKicked a field goal · 20.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.6%
    59% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.1%−1.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    14.2%−5.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:40UTSA 4th & 10 at UTSA 25, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.6%−0.7
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.3%
    average punt
  10. Q2 6:04USM 4th & 2 at UTSA 36, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    83.2%−0.9
    42% to make
    Punt
    82.9%−1.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:31UTSA 4th & 1 at UTSA 34, down 24
    Close callPunted · 5.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.1%−0.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:42UTSA 4th & 10 at UTSA 40, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.7%−0.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.4%
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:21USM 4th & 5 at USM 7, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.4%−0.4
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.8%
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:07UTSA 4th & 14 at UTSA 44, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.8%−1.4
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:47USM 4th & 8 at USM 24, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.5%−1.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.6%
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:52UTSA 4th & 15 at UTSA 45, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.9%−1.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 10:24USM 4th & 6 at USM 36, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.8%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.2%
    average punt
  18. Q4 6:40UTSA 4th & 21 at UTSA 11, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.2%−1.1
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.4%
    average punt
  19. Q4 3:36USM 4th & 7 at UTSA 41, up 10
    Close callPunted · 93.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.2%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    92.8%−0.4
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    92.9%−0.3
    average punt
  20. Q4 3:08UTSA 4th & 7 at USM 48, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.8%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USM made the numbers' call on 3 of 3UTSA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 7:40USM Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:04USM Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 13:31USM Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 7:39UTSA Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:53UTSA Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UTSADrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
87.2%
Jordan Weeks pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
87.2%
Jordan Weeks pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+1
87.2%
Jordan Weeks run for 1 yd to the TexSA 26Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 26
-2
87.2%
Yannis Routsas punt for 40 yds , Quez Watkins returns for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 2FG
11 plays · 63 yds · 5:0087% → 86%
Q1 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
87.0%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Trivenskey Mosley for 2 yds to the SoMis 34Similar
Q1 14:05
2ND & 8
OWN 34
-10
87.0%
MOSLEY, T. rush left for 1 yard to the USM35 (MARTEL, Andrew), PENALTY USM holding (FOXWORTH, Bryce) 10 yards to the USM24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:05
2ND & 18
OWN 24
+8
86.9%
Trivenskey Mosley run for 8 yds to the SoMis 32Similar
Q1 14:05
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+12
86.9%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jordan Mitchell for 12 yds to the SoMis 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
87.0%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Quez Watkins for 2 yds to the SoMis 46Similar
Q1 14:05
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+29
87.0%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for 29 yds to the TexSA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+12
87.0%
Trivenskey Mosley run for 12 yds to the TexSA 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-1
87.0%
De'Michael Harris run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 14Similar
Q1 14:05
2ND & 11
OPP 14
+2
87.0%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jordan Mitchell for 2 yds to the TexSA 12Similar
Q1 14:05
3RD & 9
OPP 12
+7
87.0%
Jack Abraham pass complete to De'Michael Harris for 7 yds to the TexSA 5Similar
Q1 9:05
4TH & 2
OPP 5
+22
85.9%
Parker Shaunfield 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q1 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
85.7%
Jalen Rhodes run for no gain to the TexSA 34Similar
Q1 8:58
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+1
85.7%
Jalen Rhodes run for 1 yd to the TexSA 35Similar
Q1 8:58
3RD & 9
OWN 35
0
85.9%
Jordan Weeks pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:58
4TH & 9
OWN 35
0
85.9%
Yannis Routsas punt for 46 yds, downed at the SoMis 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 4FG
17 plays · 69 yds · 5:2885% → 85%
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
85.2%
Trivenskey Mosley run for 1 yd to the SoMis 20Similar
Q1 7:20
2ND & 9
OWN 20
-5
85.2%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SoMis 15Similar
Q1 7:20
2ND & 14
OWN 15
+14
85.2%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for 14 yds to the SoMis 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+11
85.3%
Trivenskey Mosley run for 11 yds to the SoMis 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
85.5%
Trivenskey Mosley run for 6 yds to the SoMis 46Similar
Q1 7:20
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+5
85.6%
Jack Abraham run for 5 yds to the TexSA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+10
85.6%
Steven Anderson run for 20 yds to the TexSA 29 for a 1ST down SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Offensive holding (Jordan Mitchell) to the TexSA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
85.7%
Steven Anderson run for 3 yds to the TexSA 36Similar
Q1 7:20
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+3
85.7%
Steven Anderson run for 3 yds to the TexSA 33Similar
Q1 7:20
3RD & 4
OPP 33
+2
85.6%
De'Michael Harris run for 2 yds to the TexSA 31Similar
Q1 7:20
4TH & 2
OPP 31
+16
85.4%
Steven Anderson run for 16 yds to the TexSA 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-5
85.8%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TexSA 20Similar
Q1 2:59
1ST & 15
OPP 20
+2
84.8%
Trivenskey Mosley run for 2 yds to the TexSA 18Similar
Q1 2:59
2ND & 13
OPP 18
+6
84.7%
Trivenskey Mosley run for 6 yds to the TexSA 12Similar
Q1 2:59
3RD & 7
OPP 12
0
84.6%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Quez WatkinsSimilar
Q1 1:52
4TH & 7
OPP 12
+29
85.1%
Parker Shaunfield 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:4516% → 15%
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+11
84.4%
Jordan Weeks pass complete to Tykee Ogle-Kellogg for 11 yds to the TexSA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
84.1%
B.J. Daniels run for 4 yds to the TexSA 41Similar
Q1 1:45
2ND & 6
OWN 41
-3
83.8%
Jordan Weeks sacked by Darian Yancey for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSA 38Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 38
-7
84.0%
Jordan Weeks sacked by Sherrod Ruff for a loss of 7 yards to the TexSA 31Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 16
OWN 31
+54
84.6%
Yannis Routsas punt for 54 yds , Quez Watkins returns for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q2 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+15
84.4%
Trivenskey Mosley run for 15 yds to the SoMis 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-13
84.5%
Trivenskey Mosley run for 2 yds to the SoMis 31 SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the SoMis 16Similar
Q2 14:11
2ND & 23
OWN 16
+3
84.3%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for 3 yds to the SoMis 19Similar
Q2 14:11
4TH & 20
OWN 19
0
83.7%
Zac Everett punt for 40 yds, downed at the TexSA 41Similar
Q2 14:11
3RD & 20
OWN 19
0
84.0%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Tim Jones, broken up by Cassius GradySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 7FG
10 plays · 58 yds · 3:1317% → 20%
Q2 12:39
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
82.8%
B.J. Daniels run for 3 yds to the TexSA 44Similar
Q2 12:39
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+6
82.6%
Jordan Weeks pass complete to Greg Campbell Jr. for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 12:39
3RD & 1
50
+3
82.4%
Jalen Rhodes run for 3 yds to the SoMis 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:39
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
82.3%
Jordan Weeks pass incomplete to Greg Campbell Jr.Similar
Q2 12:39
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+43
82.5%
Matt Guidry run for 43 yds to the SoMis 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
81.7%
Jalen Rhodes run for 1 yd to the SoMis 3Similar
Q2 10:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
80.6%
Cordale Grundy pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:09
3RD & 3
OPP 0
+2
81.2%
Jalen Rhodes run for 2 yds to the SoMis 1 SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the SoMis 1Similar
Q2 9:26
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+18
79.7%
Jared Sackett 18 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 8TD
5 plays · 21 yds · 1:3383% → 86%
Q2 9:13
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+14
82.7%
Trivenskey Mosley run for 14 yds to the TexSA 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
82.7%
Trivenskey Mosley run for 4 yds to the TexSA 3Similar
Q2 9:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
82.7%
Jack Abraham run for 1 yd to the TexSA 2Similar
Q2 7:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
85.8%
Steven Anderson run for 2 yds for a TD (Parker Shaunfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0015% → 14%
Q2 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
85.2%
Jordan Weeks pass complete to Halen Steward for 2 yds to the TexSA 27Similar
Q2 7:40
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-2
85.1%
Matt Guidry run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSA 25Similar
Q2 7:40
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
85.7%
Jordan Weeks pass incomplete to Jalen RhodesSimilar
Q2 7:40
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
86.0%
Yannis Routsas punt for 50 yds , Quez Watkins returns for no gain to the SoMis 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 10TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 6:0085% → 90%
Q2 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
85.1%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Trivenskey Mosley for 3 yds to the SoMis 28Similar
Q2 6:04
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+15
85.1%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for 15 yds to the SoMis 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
85.9%
Trivenskey Mosley run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 6:04
2ND & 3
50
+6
86.1%
Jack Abraham pass complete to De'Michael Harris for 6 yds to the TexSA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:04
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
86.1%
Trivenskey Mosley run for 8 yds to the TexSA 36Similar
Q2 6:04
2ND & 2
OPP 36
0
86.1%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Quez Watkins for no gain to the TexSA 36Similar
Q2 6:04
3RD & 2
OPP 36
0
85.7%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Quez Watkins, broken up by Corey Mayfield Jr.Similar
Q2 6:04
4TH & 2
OPP 36
+3
85.1%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jordan Mitchell for 3 yds to the TexSA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:04
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+15
86.1%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jordan Mitchell for 15 yds to the TexSA 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:04
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+17
86.2%
Trivenskey Mosley run for 17 yds to the TexSA 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
86.2%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TexSA 6Similar
Q2 0:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-10
86.8%
ABRAHAM, Jack shovel pass complete to WATKINS, Quez for 6 yards to the UTSA0, clock 00:53, PENALTY USM holding (WASHINGTON, J.) 10 yards to the UTSA16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 16
+10
86.8%
Jack Abraham run for 10 yds to the TexSA 6Similar
Q2 0:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
86.8%
Trivenskey Mosley run for no gain to the TexSA 6Similar
Q2 0:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
90.1%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jordan Mitchell for 6 yds for a TD Timeout SOUTHERN MISS, clock 00:04 (Parker Shaunfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-1
90.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 12TD
6 plays · 63 yds · 1:2992% → 97%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
91.9%
Trivenskey Mosley run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 36Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 36
+33
91.8%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Trivenskey Mosley for 33 yds to the TexSA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+24
92.1%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for 24 yds to the TexSA 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
92.1%
Trivenskey Mosley run for 5 yds to the TexSA 2Similar
Q3 13:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
96.6%
Jack Abraham run for 2 yds for a TD (Parker Shaunfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.4%
Jordan Weeks pass incomplete to Tykee Ogle-Kellogg, broken up by Ty WilliamsSimilar
Q3 13:31
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
95.4%
Jordan Weeks pass complete to Gavin Sharp for 9 yds to the TexSA 34Similar
Q3 13:31
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
95.2%
Jalen Rhodes run for no gain to the TexSA 34Similar
Q3 13:31
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-4
95.2%
Yannis Routsas punt for 56 yds , Quez Watkins returns for a loss of 4 yards to the SoMis 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 14FUMBLE
4 plays · 47 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+4
96.6%
Jack Abraham pass complete to De'Michael Harris for 4 yds to the SoMis 10Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 6
OWN 10
+12
96.7%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for 12 yds to the SoMis 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+10
96.7%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for 10 yds to the SoMis 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+21
96.8%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jay'Shawn Washington for 21 yds Jay'Shawn Washington fumbled, recovered by TexSA Les MaruoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 15TD
6 plays · 53 yds · 2:263% → 9%
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+27
96.8%
Jordan Weeks pass complete to Greg Campbell Jr. for 27 yds to the SoMis 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+17
96.3%
Brenden Brady run for 17 yds to the SoMis 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
96.3%
Brenden Brady run for 7 yds to the SoMis 2Similar
Q3 10:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
96.3%
Brenden Brady run for no gain to the SoMis 2Similar
Q3 7:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
91.2%
Jordan Weeks pass complete to Greg Campbell Jr. for 2 yds for a TD (Jared Sackett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 16FUMBLE
9 plays · 61 yds · 0:0094% → 95%
Q3 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+12
94.3%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Quez Watkins for 12 yds to the SoMis 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+14
94.6%
Jack Abraham run for 14 yds to the SoMis 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
94.7%
Trivenskey Mosley run for 1 yd to the SoMis 36Similar
Q3 7:32
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+10
94.8%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Quez Watkins for 10 yds to the SoMis 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
95.0%
Trivenskey Mosley run for 5 yds to the TexSA 49Similar
Q3 7:32
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+13
95.0%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Quez Watkins for 13 yds to the TexSA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
95.1%
Trivenskey Mosley run for 3 yds to the TexSA 33Similar
Q3 7:32
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+2
95.0%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jordan Mitchell for 2 yds Jordan Mitchell fumbled, forced by C.J. Levine, recovered by TexSA Andrew MartelSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 17PUNT
3 plays · 10 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q3 2:42
3RD & 10
OWN 40
0
94.8%
Jordan Weeks pass incomplete to Marquez McNairSimilar
Q3 2:42
4TH & 10
OWN 40
0
95.1%
Yannis Routsas punt for 58 yds, downed at the SoMis 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0096% → 95%
Q3 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
96.0%
Steven Anderson run for no gain to the SoMis 2 SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, illegal motion ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 2:21
2ND & 10
OWN 2
0
95.9%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Quez WatkinsSimilar
Q3 2:21
3RD & 10
OWN 2
+5
95.8%
Jack Abraham pass complete to De'Michael Harris for 5 yds to the SoMis 7Similar
Q3 2:21
4TH & 5
OWN 7
0
95.4%
Zac Everett punt for 30 yds , Matt Guidry returns for no gain to the TexSA 7 UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Matt Guidry) to the TexSA 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:005% → 4%
Q3 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-4
95.0%
Brenden Brady run for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSA 44Similar
Q3 1:07
2ND & 14
OWN 44
0
95.4%
Jordan Weeks pass incomplete to T.J. KingSimilar
Q3 1:07
3RD & 14
OWN 44
0
95.5%
Jordan Weeks pass incomplete to Kirk Johnson Jr.Similar
Q3 1:07
4TH & 14
OWN 44
0
95.6%
Yannis Routsas punt for 53 yds, downed at the SoMis 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 20INT TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+8
88.9%
Jack Abraham pass intercepted for a TD C.J. Levine return for 8 yds for a TD (Jared Sackett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0089% → 88%
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
89.1%
Trivenskey Mosley run for 3 yds to the SoMis 25Similar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+3
89.1%
Jack Abraham pass complete to De'Michael Harris for 3 yds to the SoMis 28Similar
Q4 14:47
3RD & 4
OWN 28
-4
88.7%
Jack Abraham sacked by Les Maruo for a loss of 4 yards to the SoMis 24Similar
Q4 14:47
4TH & 8
OWN 24
0
87.9%
Zac Everett punt for 38 yds, downed at the TexSA 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 1:0312% → 10%
Q4 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
88.2%
Brenden Brady run for 6 yds to the TexSA 44Similar
Q4 12:55
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+6
87.7%
Jordan Weeks pass complete to Marquez McNair for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:55
1ST & 10
50
-5
87.1%
Jordan Weeks sacked by Racheem Boothe for a loss of 5 yards to the TexSA 45 UT SAN ANTONIO Penalty, intentional grounding (Jordan Weeks) to the TexSA 45Similar
Q4 11:52
2ND & 15
OWN 45
-4
89.2%
Jordan Weeks sacked by Sherrod Ruff for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSA 41Similar
Q4 11:52
3RD & 19
OWN 41
+4
89.6%
Brenden Brady run for 4 yds to the TexSA 45Similar
Q4 11:52
4TH & 15
OWN 45
0
90.2%
Yannis Routsas punt for 36 yds, downed at the SoMis 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:0089% → 88%
Q4 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
88.8%
Trivenskey Mosley run for 7 yds to the SoMis 26Similar
Q4 10:24
2ND & 3
OWN 26
-1
88.8%
Trivenskey Mosley run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 25Similar
Q4 10:24
3RD & 4
OWN 25
+7
88.2%
Trivenskey Mosley run for 7 yds to the SoMis 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
88.9%
Steven Anderson run for 3 yds to the SoMis 35Similar
Q4 10:24
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+1
88.8%
Steven Anderson run for 1 yd to the SoMis 36Similar
Q4 10:24
3RD & 6
OWN 36
0
88.8%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jay'Shawn Washington for no gain to the SoMis 36Similar
Q4 10:24
4TH & 6
OWN 36
-2
88.4%
Zac Everett punt for 40 yds , Matt Guidry returns for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSA 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 24PUNT
4 plays · -11 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q4 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
92.6%
Brenden Brady run for 4 yds to the TexSA 26Similar
Q4 6:40
2ND & 6
OWN 26
-10
91.7%
Jordan Weeks sacked by Paxton Schrimsher for a loss of 10 yards to the TexSA 16Similar
Q4 6:40
3RD & 16
OWN 16
-5
93.2%
Jordan Weeks sacked by Jacques Turner for a loss of 5 yards to the TexSA 11Similar
Q4 6:40
4TH & 21
OWN 11
0
93.4%
Yannis Routsas punt for 33 yds, downed at the TexSA 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:5995% → 96%
Q4 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
94.6%
Steven Anderson run for 3 yds to the TexSA 41Similar
Q4 4:35
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+3
94.5%
Trivenskey Mosley run for 3 yds to the TexSA 38Similar
Q4 3:41
3RD & 4
OPP 38
-3
95.8%
Trivenskey Mosley run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSA 41Similar
Q4 3:36
4TH & 7
OPP 41
0
95.8%
Zac Everett punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Greg Campbell Jr. at the TexSA 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 26DOWNS
9 plays · 46 yds · 0:213% → 3%
Q4 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+6
96.6%
Jordan Weeks pass complete to Greg Campbell Jr. for 6 yds to the TexSA 12Similar
Q4 3:08
2ND & 4
OWN 12
0
97.0%
Jordan Weeks pass incomplete to Blaze Moorhead, broken up by Rachuan MitchellSimilar
Q4 3:08
3RD & 4
OWN 12
+26
97.3%
Jordan Weeks pass complete to Marquez McNair for 26 yds to the TexSA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
96.7%
Jordan Weeks pass complete to Brenden Brady for 11 yds to the TexSA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
96.5%
Jordan Weeks pass complete to Greg Campbell Jr. for 3 yds to the SoMis 48Similar
Q4 3:08
2ND & 7
OPP 48
0
96.3%
Jordan Weeks pass incomplete to Blaze MoorheadSimilar
Q4 3:08
3RD & 7
OPP 48
0
96.5%
Jordan Weeks pass incomplete to Blaze Moorhead, broken up by Shannon ShowersSimilar
Q4 3:08
4TH & 7
OPP 48
0
96.7%
Jordan Weeks pass incomplete to Marquez McNairSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 27END OF GAME
3 plays · -4 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-1
98.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 47Similar
Q4 1:37
2ND & 11
OWN 47
-2
98.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 45Similar
Q4 1:37
3RD & 13
OWN 45
-1
98.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:53
Jack Abraham pass intercepted for a TD C.J. Levine return for 8 yds for a TD (Jared Sackett KICK)
-6.7
TD · Q3 7:39
Jordan Weeks pass complete to Greg Campbell Jr. for 2 yds for a TD (Jared Sackett KICK)
-5.2
TD · Q3 13:31
Jack Abraham run for 2 yds for a TD (Parker Shaunfield KICK)
+4.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com