Try the model
FAU

Florida Atlantic 7 at Marshall 31

MRSH
2018 · Week 8 · Oct 20, 2018 · Joan C. Edwards Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MRSH
modelMRSH aheadFAU aheadconfidence bandkey playMRSH scoreFAU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 8:36 · Alex Thomson punt for 31 yds, downed at the FlAtl 5
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 71Home team on offense−0.6Score differential−0.4Garbage-time factor−0.7Pregame prior−3.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. KEY PLAY · Q1 0:39: Tyler King run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 20 — MRSH win probability +5.1 pts (now 51%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:26: Alex Thomson pass complete to Armani Levias for 29 yds for a TD, (Justin Rohrwasser KICK) — MRSH win probability +9.6 pts (now 60%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q2 0:39: Chris Robison pass complete to Harrison Bryant for 6 yds to the FlAtl 36 — MRSH win probability +5.3 pts (now 60%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 13:52: Tyler King run for 17 yds for a TD, (Justin Rohrwasser KICK) — MRSH win probability +10.8 pts (now 71%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 6:18: Alex Thomson pass complete to Armani Levias for 13 yds for a TD, (Justin Rohrwasser KICK) — MRSH win probability +14.4 pts (now 90%) (top driver: MRSH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MRSH made the numbers' call on 7 of 12FAU made the numbers' call on 10 of 13
  1. Q1 15:00MRSH 4th & 4 at FAU 43, tied
    Close callPunted · 44.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    44.8%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    44.9%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:14FAU 4th & 7 at FAU 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.8%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:53MRSH 4th & 13 at FAU 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.5%−0.5
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.0%
    70% to make
    Punt
    45.4%−1.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:53FAU 4th & 13 at FAU 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.0%−0.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.5%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:57MRSH 4th & 4 at FAU 39, tied
    Close callPunted · 48.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    47.7%−0.4
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    47.7%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:23MRSH 4th & 10 at FAU 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.6%−0.4
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.0%
    70% to make
    Punt
    46.9%−2.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:52MRSH 4th & 16 at MRSH 26, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.0%−1.7
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:36MRSH 4th & 8 at FAU 36, down 4
    Close callPunted · 46.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.2%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    45.9%−0.2
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    45.5%−0.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:52FAU 4th & 12 at FAU 3, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.0%−3.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.1%
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:26FAU 4th & 3 at FAU 32, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.6%−0.4
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.1%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:44MRSH 4th & 4 at MRSH 21, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.0%−1.8
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:52FAU 4th & 10 at MRSH 29, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 30.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.3%−0.8
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    29.1%
    58% to make
    Punt
    23.6%−5.5
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:04FAU 4th & 9 at MRSH 12, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.1%−1.3
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    28.4%
    86% to make
    Punt
    18.9%−9.5
    average punt
  14. Q3 11:04MRSH 4th & 4 at FAU 43, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 72.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    70.2%−2.5
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    71.4%−1.3
    average punt
  15. Q3 7:54FAU 4th & 1 at FAU 13, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    24.1%−2.0
    average punt
  16. Q3 3:18FAU 4th & 10 at MRSH 13, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 9.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.3%−1.3
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    9.5%
    85% to make
    Punt
    1.8%−7.7
    average punt
  17. Q3 3:18MRSH 4th & 10 at MRSH 36, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.2%−1.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.4%
    average punt
  18. Q3 1:22FAU 4th & 4 at FAU 26, down 17
    Close callPunted · 8.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.7%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 15:00MRSH 4th & 9 at MRSH 39, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.8%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.4%
    average punt
  20. Q4 12:49FAU 4th & 2 at FAU 41, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.7%−0.5
    average punt
  21. Q4 11:22MRSH 4th & 30 at MRSH 46, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.1%−1.5
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.6%
    average punt
  22. Q4 9:44FAU 4th & 5 at FAU 13, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.9%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.2%
    average punt
  23. Q4 5:38MRSH 4th & 1 at FAU 47, up 17
    Close callPunted · 97.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.6%−0.6
    average punt
  24. Q4 5:25FAU 4th & 8 at FAU 12, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.1%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.5%
    average punt
  25. Q4 1:35FAU 4th & 4 at FAU 36, down 24
    Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MRSH made the numbers' call on 3 of 4FAU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 10:52FAU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 3:26MRSH Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 13:52MRSH Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:18MRSH Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 1:35MRSH Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MRSHDrive 1PUNT
11 plays · 31 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
44.6%
Alex Thomson pass complete to Tyre Brady for 8 yds to the Marsh 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 34
0
44.6%
Alex Thomson pass incomplete to Marcel WilliamsSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+3
44.6%
Alex Thomson run for 3 yds to the Marsh 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
44.6%
Alex Thomson pass complete to Tyre Brady for 1 yd to the Marsh 38Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+6
44.6%
Alex Thomson pass complete to Marcel Williams for 6 yds to the Marsh 44Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+7
44.6%
Alex Thomson run for 7 yds to the FlAtl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
44.6%
Alex Thomson run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+3
44.6%
Tyler King run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 43Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 43
0
44.6%
Alex Thomson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 43
0
44.6%
Robert LeFevre punt for 35 yds, downed at the FlAtl 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0054% → 54%
Q1 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
45.6%
Chris Robison pass incomplete to Harrison BryantSimilar
Q1 11:14
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+3
45.6%
Devin Singletary run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 11Similar
Q1 11:14
3RD & 7
OWN 11
0
45.7%
Kerrith Whyte Jr. run for no gain to the FlAtl 11Similar
Q1 11:14
4TH & 7
OWN 11
+3
45.9%
Sebastian Riella punt for 44 yds , Marcel Williams returns for 3 yds to the Marsh 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 3MISSED FG
9 plays · 29 yds · 3:4947% → 47%
Q1 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
46.6%
Alex Thomson pass complete to Tyre Brady for 6 yds to the FlAtl 46Similar
Q1 9:42
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+9
46.7%
Tyler King run for 9 yds to the FlAtl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:42
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
46.7%
Alex Thomson run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 33Similar
Q1 9:42
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+5
46.9%
Tyler King run for 5 yds to the FlAtl 28Similar
Q1 9:42
3RD & 1
OPP 28
+8
46.7%
Tyler King run for 8 yds to the FlAtl 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:42
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
46.9%
Tyler King run for no gain to the FlAtl 20Similar
Q1 9:42
2ND & 10
OPP 20
-7
46.9%
Alex Thomson sacked by Shelton Lewis for a loss of 7 yards to the FlAtl 27Similar
Q1 9:42
3RD & 17
OPP 27
+4
46.2%
Tyler King run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 23Similar
Q1 5:53
4TH & 13
OPP 23
+40
46.7%
Justin Rohrwasser 40 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Jalen Young Jalen Young return for no gain to the FlAtl 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
Q1 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
46.6%
Willie Wright run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 27Similar
Q1 5:53
2ND & 6
OWN 27
-14
46.4%
SINGLETARY, D rush for 46 yards to the MAR27 (MERRELL, Kereon), PENALTY FAU illegal block (WRIGHT, Willie) 14 yards to the FAU13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:53
2ND & 20
OWN 13
+5
46.8%
Devin Singletary run for 5 yds to the FlAtl 18Similar
Q1 5:53
3RD & 15
OWN 18
-5
47.1%
FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, false start (Harrison Bryant) to the FlAtl 13Similar
Q1 5:53
3RD & 20
OWN 13
+7
47.1%
Chris Robison pass complete to Kerrith Whyte Jr. for 7 yds to the FlAtl 20Similar
Q1 5:53
4TH & 13
OWN 20
+13
47.4%
Sebastian Riella punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FlAtl 45 , Nick Mathews returns for 13 yds to the FlAtl 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0049% → 48%
Q1 3:57
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
48.6%
Keion Davis run for 6 yds to the FlAtl 39Similar
Q1 3:57
2ND & 4
OPP 39
0
48.6%
Alex Thomson pass incomplete, broken up by Quran HafizSimilar
Q1 3:57
3RD & 4
OPP 39
0
48.4%
Alex Thomson pass incomplete to Tyre BradySimilar
Q1 3:57
4TH & 4
OPP 39
0
47.7%
Robert LeFevre punt for 39 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 6INT
8 plays · 36 yds · 1:1953% → 54%
Q1 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
47.2%
ROBISON, Chris pass complete to SINGLETARY, D for loss of 5 yards to the FAU15 (JOHNSON, Artis;JOHNSON, Nazeeh), PENALTY FAU holding (RAINE, John) 10 yards to the FAU10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:12
1ST & 20
OWN 10
0
47.3%
Chris Robison pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:12
2ND & 20
OWN 10
+11
47.3%
Chris Robison pass complete to John Raine for 11 yds to the FlAtl 21Similar
Q1 1:53
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+24
47.9%
Chris Robison pass complete to Jovon Durante for 24 yds to the FlAtl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
46.3%
Chris Robison pass complete to Willie Wright for 2 yds to the FlAtl 47Similar
Q1 1:53
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+9
46.2%
Chris Robison run for 9 yds to the Marsh 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+48
46.0%
Chris Robison pass intercepted Artis Johnson return for 48 yds to the FlAtl 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 7FG
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:1651% → 51%
Q1 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
51.1%
Tyler King run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 20Similar
Q1 0:39
2ND & 7
OPP 20
0
51.1%
Tyler King run for no gain to the FlAtl 20Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 20
-3
50.8%
Alex Thomson pass complete to Willie Johnson for a loss of 3 yards to the FlAtl 23Similar
Q2 14:23
4TH & 10
OPP 23
+40
50.7%
Justin Rohrwasser 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 8TD
13 plays · 82 yds · 3:3149% → 56%
Q2 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+13
50.6%
Chris Robison pass complete to Jovon Durante for 13 yds to the FlAtl 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
50.4%
Devin Singletary run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 34Similar
Q2 14:23
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+5
50.2%
MARSHALL Penalty, Defensive offside (Frankie Hernandez) to the FlAtl 39Similar
Q2 14:23
2ND & 2
OWN 39
+6
49.3%
Devin Singletary run for 6 yds to the FlAtl 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+13
49.3%
Chris Robison pass complete to Harrison Bryant for 13 yds to the Marsh 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:23
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
48.9%
Chris Robison run for no gain to the Marsh 42Similar
Q2 14:23
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+13
48.9%
Chris Robison run for 13 yds to the Marsh 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:23
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-3
48.3%
Kerrith Whyte Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the Marsh 32Similar
Q2 14:23
2ND & 13
OPP 32
0
48.7%
Chris Robison pass incomplete to John Raine, broken up by Donyae MoodySimilar
Q2 14:23
3RD & 13
OPP 32
+29
49.8%
Kerrith Whyte Jr. run for 29 yds to the Marsh 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
48.3%
Kerrith Whyte Jr. run for 1 yd to the Marsh 2Similar
Q2 10:52
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
43.6%
Chris Robison pass complete to Harrison Bryant for 2 yds for a TD, (Vladimir Rivas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 0:0046% → 45%
Q2 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
46.2%
Alex Thomson pass complete to Obi Obialo for 5 yds to the Marsh 26Similar
Q2 10:52
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+6
46.5%
Alex Thomson run for 6 yds to the Marsh 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-8
46.5%
Alex Thomson sacked by Andrew Soroh and Ray Ellis for a loss of 8 yards to the Marsh 24Similar
Q2 10:52
2ND & 18
OWN 24
+2
46.0%
Tyler King run for 2 yds to the Marsh 26Similar
Q2 10:52
3RD & 16
OWN 26
0
45.2%
Alex Thomson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:52
4TH & 16
OWN 26
+3
44.9%
Robert LeFevre punt for 52 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FlAtl 25 , Dante Cousart returns for 3 yds to the FlAtl 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 10FUMBLE
1 play · 13 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
Q2 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
45.4%
Kerrith Whyte Jr. run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 38 Kerrith Whyte Jr. fumbled, forced by Malik Thompson, recovered by Marsh Kereon MerrellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0049% → 47%
Q2 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
48.6%
Alex Thomson pass incomplete to Tyre BradySimilar
Q2 8:36
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+3
48.5%
Alex Thomson pass complete to Artie Henry III for 3 yds to the FlAtl 35Similar
Q2 8:36
3RD & 7
OPP 35
-1
48.4%
Keion Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the FlAtl 36Similar
Q2 8:36
4TH & 8
OPP 36
0
47.0%
Alex Thomson punt for 31 yds, downed at the FlAtl 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:1654% → 52%
Q2 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-2
45.6%
Devin Singletary run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlAtl 3Similar
Q2 7:08
2ND & 12
OWN 3
+2
45.7%
Devin Singletary run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 5Similar
Q2 5:52
3RD & 10
OWN 5
-2
46.9%
Devin Singletary run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlAtl 3Similar
Q2 5:52
4TH & 12
OWN 3
+6
47.6%
Sebastian Riella punt for 36 yds , Marcel Williams returns for 6 yds to the FlAtl 9 MARSHALL Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the FlAtl 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 13TD
4 plays · 43 yds · 1:3849% → 60%
Q2 5:04
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
48.7%
Alex Thomson pass complete to Armani Levias for 5 yds to the FlAtl 38Similar
Q2 5:04
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+9
48.8%
Alex Thomson run for 9 yds to the FlAtl 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:04
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
50.1%
Keion Davis run for no gain to the FlAtl 29Similar
Q2 3:26
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+29
59.7%
Alex Thomson pass complete to Armani Levias for 29 yds for a TD, (Justin Rohrwasser KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0043% → 42%
Q2 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
56.9%
Devin Singletary run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 27Similar
Q2 3:26
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
56.8%
Chris Robison pass incomplete to Harrison Bryant, broken up by Chris JacksonSimilar
Q2 3:26
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+5
57.8%
Chris Robison pass complete to Jovon Durante for 5 yds to the FlAtl 32Similar
Q2 3:26
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
58.1%
Chris Robison punt for 63 yds, downed at the Marsh 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 1:4556% → 54%
Q2 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-1
55.9%
Tyler King run for a loss of 1 yard to the Marsh 4Similar
Q2 2:29
2ND & 11
OWN 4
+11
55.7%
Tyler King run for 11 yds to the Marsh 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
56.0%
Alex Thomson pass incomplete to Tyre BradySimilar
Q2 2:29
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+3
55.8%
Keion Davis run for 3 yds to the Marsh 18Similar
Q2 0:52
3RD & 7
OWN 18
+3
55.0%
Alex Thomson pass complete to Tyler King for 3 yds to the Marsh 21Similar
Q2 0:44
4TH & 4
OWN 21
0
54.3%
Robert LeFevre punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Dante Cousart at the FlAtl 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 16INT
3 plays · 20 yds · 0:0040% → 44%
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
59.6%
Chris Robison pass complete to Harrison Bryant for 6 yds to the FlAtl 36Similar
Q2 0:39
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+14
58.4%
Chris Robison pass complete to Jovon Durante for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
50
+21
56.5%
Chris Robison pass intercepted Chris Jackson return for 21 yds to the Marsh 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 17END OF HALF
1 play · 15 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
57.5%
Tyler King run for 15 yds to the FlAtl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 18INT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0045% → 44%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
55.0%
Chris Robison pass complete to Willie Wright for 2 yds to the FlAtl 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
54.8%
Jovon Durante pass incomplete to Chris RobisonSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
56.1%
Chris Robison pass intercepted Malik Thompson return for no gain to the FlAtl 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 19TD
3 plays · 27 yds · 0:3761% → 71%
Q3 14:29
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
60.6%
Alex Thomson pass incomplete to Tyre BradySimilar
Q3 14:29
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+10
60.5%
Alex Thomson pass complete to Tyre Brady for 10 yds to the FlAtl 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:52
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
71.3%
Tyler King run for 17 yds for a TD, (Justin Rohrwasser KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 20MISSED FG
12 plays · 63 yds · 2:4831% → 29%
Q3 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
69.2%
Chris Robison run for 17 yds to the FlAtl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+16
68.0%
Devin Singletary run for 1 yd to the Marsh 43 for a 1ST down MARSHALL Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Malik Thompson) to the Marsh 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:52
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+13
66.9%
Chris Robison pass complete to Harrison Bryant for 13 yds to the Marsh 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:52
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
65.3%
Chris Robison pass incomplete to Jovon Durante, broken up by Chris JacksonSimilar
Q3 13:52
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
65.8%
Chris Robison pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:52
3RD & 10
OPP 29
0
67.2%
Chris Robison pass incomplete to Willie Wright, broken up by Brandon DraytonSimilar
Q3 13:52
4TH & 10
OPP 29
+16
69.3%
Chris Robison pass complete to Jovon Durante for 16 yds to the Marsh 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:52
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
65.3%
Kerrith Whyte Jr. run for 1 yd to the Marsh 12Similar
Q3 13:52
2ND & 9
OPP 12
0
65.3%
Willie Wright run for no gain to the Marsh 12Similar
Q3 13:52
3RD & 9
OPP 12
0
67.1%
Chris Robison pass incomplete to Willie WrightSimilar
Q3 11:04
4TH & 9
OPP 12
+30
70.6%
Vladimir Rivas 30 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 21PUNT
8 plays · 37 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q3 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
71.9%
Alex Thomson pass complete to Tyre Brady for 16 yds to the Marsh 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
72.7%
Alex Thomson run for 6 yds to the Marsh 42Similar
Q3 11:04
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+3
73.6%
Alex Thomson run for 3 yds to the Marsh 45Similar
Q3 11:04
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+6
72.6%
Keion Davis run for 6 yds to the FlAtl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:04
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
73.8%
Alex Thomson pass incomplete to Obi ObialoSimilar
Q3 11:04
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
73.6%
Keion Davis run for no gain to the FlAtl 49Similar
Q3 11:04
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+6
72.1%
Alex Thomson run for 6 yds to the FlAtl 43Similar
Q3 11:04
4TH & 4
OPP 43
0
71.7%
Robert LeFevre punt for 39 yds, downed at the FlAtl 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 22DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0026% → 24%
Q3 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+3
74.2%
Devin Singletary run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 7Similar
Q3 7:54
2ND & 7
OWN 7
+4
74.5%
Devin Singletary run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 11Similar
Q3 7:54
3RD & 3
OWN 11
+2
75.2%
Chris Robison run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 13Similar
Q3 7:54
4TH & 1
OWN 13
0
75.8%
Kerrith Whyte Jr. run for no gain to the FlAtl 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 23TD
1 play · 13 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q3 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
90.2%
Alex Thomson pass complete to Armani Levias for 13 yds for a TD, (Justin Rohrwasser KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 24MISSED FG
13 plays · 61 yds · 3:0012% → 10%
Q3 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
88.2%
Chris Robison pass incomplete to Jovon DuranteSimilar
Q3 6:18
2ND & 10
OWN 26
-13
88.3%
ROBISON, Chris rush for 1 yard to the FAU27, out-of-bounds (GANT, Malik), PENALTY FAU illegal block (DURANTE, Jovon) 13 yards to the FAU13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:18
2ND & 23
OWN 13
+24
88.4%
Chris Robison pass complete to Jovon Durante for 24 yds to the FlAtl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
87.4%
Chris Robison pass complete to Willie Wright for 6 yds to the FlAtl 43Similar
Q3 6:18
2ND & 4
OWN 43
-3
87.3%
Kerrith Whyte Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the FlAtl 40Similar
Q3 6:18
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+29
87.6%
Chris Robison pass complete to Willie Wright for 29 yds to the Marsh 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
86.0%
Chris Robison pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:18
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+18
86.2%
Chris Robison pass complete to Harrison Bryant for 18 yds to the Marsh 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
85.7%
Devin Singletary run for no gain to the Marsh 13Similar
Q3 6:18
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
85.7%
Chris Robison pass incomplete to Harrison BryantSimilar
Q3 6:18
3RD & 10
OPP 13
0
87.2%
Chris Robison pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:18
4TH & 10
OPP 13
+31
89.9%
Vladimir Rivas 31 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 16 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q3 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
91.2%
Tyler King run for 16 yds to the Marsh 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
91.5%
Alex Thomson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Marsh 35Similar
Q3 3:18
2ND & 11
OWN 35
0
91.3%
Alex Thomson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:18
3RD & 11
OWN 35
+1
90.9%
Keion Davis run for 1 yd to the Marsh 36Similar
Q3 3:18
4TH & 10
OWN 36
+5
90.5%
Robert LeFevre punt for 49 yds , Dante Cousart returns for 5 yds to the FlAtl 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q3 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
91.6%
Devin Singletary run for 6 yds to the FlAtl 26Similar
Q3 1:22
2ND & 4
OWN 26
0
91.2%
Devin Singletary run for no gain to the FlAtl 26Similar
Q3 1:22
3RD & 4
OWN 26
0
91.4%
De'Andre Johnson pass incomplete to John RaineSimilar
Q3 1:22
4TH & 4
OWN 26
0
91.8%
Sebastian Riella punt for 48 yds, downed at the Marsh 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 27PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 0:1493% → 93%
Q3 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+12
92.9%
Tyler King run for 12 yds to the Marsh 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
93.5%
Tyler King run for 3 yds to the Marsh 41Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 41
0
93.6%
Alex Thomson pass incomplete to Willie Johnson, broken up by Jalen YoungSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 41
-10
93.4%
THOMSON, Alex rush for 6 yards to the MAR47 (SMITH, Rashad;YOUNG, Jalen), PENALTY MAR holding (DOWREY, Jordan) 10 yards to the MAR31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 17
OWN 31
+8
93.0%
Tyler King run for 8 yds to the Marsh 39Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 39
0
92.7%
Robert LeFevre punt for 43 yds , Willie Wright returns for no gain to the FlAtl 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 28INT
6 plays · 23 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q4 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
94.1%
Devin Singletary run for 6 yds to the FlAtl 24Similar
Q4 12:49
2ND & 4
OWN 24
+9
93.8%
Jovon Durante run for 9 yds to the FlAtl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
93.8%
Chris Robison pass incomplete to John RaineSimilar
Q4 12:49
2ND & 10
OWN 33
-10
93.9%
Chris Robison sacked by Marquis Couch for a loss of 10 yards to the FlAtl 23 FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, intentional grounding (Chris Robison) to the FlAtl 23Similar
Q4 12:49
3RD & 20
OWN 23
+18
94.4%
Chris Robison pass complete to Jovon Durante for 18 yds to the FlAtl 41Similar
Q4 12:49
4TH & 2
OWN 41
-14
93.9%
Chris Robison pass intercepted Malik Gant return for 1 yd to the FlAtl 42 FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, personal foul (Antonio Riles) to the FlAtl 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 29PUNT
5 plays · -20 yds · 0:0096% → 95%
Q4 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
95.7%
Tyler King run for no gain to the FlAtl 34Similar
Q4 11:22
2ND & 10
OPP 34
-7
95.6%
Alex Thomson sacked by Quran Hafiz and Akileis Leroy for a loss of 7 yards to the FlAtl 41Similar
Q4 11:22
3RD & 17
OPP 41
+2
95.3%
Keion Davis run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 39Similar
Q4 11:22
4TH & 15
OPP 39
-15
94.9%
MARSHALL Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Tyre Brady) to the Marsh 46Similar
Q4 11:22
4TH & 30
OWN 46
+4
94.9%
Robert LeFevre punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FlAtl 8 , Willie Wright returns for 4 yds to the 50 yard line FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, Offensive holding (8 Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 30PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q4 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-4
95.8%
SINGLETARY, D rush for 2 yards to the FAU10 (MOODY, Donyae), PENALTY FAU holding (BIANCARDI, Ean) 4 yards to the FAU4, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:44
1ST & 14
OWN 4
+7
95.8%
Rafe Peavey pass complete to Harrison Bryant for 7 yds to the FlAtl 11Similar
Q4 9:44
2ND & 7
OWN 11
+2
95.7%
Devin Singletary run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 13Similar
Q4 9:44
3RD & 5
OWN 13
0
95.7%
Rafe Peavey pass incomplete to Kerrith Whyte Jr.Similar
Q4 9:44
4TH & 5
OWN 13
0
95.8%
Sebastian Riella punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Nick Mathews at the Marsh 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 31PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:3196% → 97%
Q4 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
96.4%
Tyler King run for 1 yd to the Marsh 45Similar
Q4 8:09
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+5
96.4%
Tyler King run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 8:09
3RD & 4
50
+3
96.3%
Alex Thomson run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 47Similar
Q4 5:38
4TH & 1
OPP 47
+9
97.4%
Robert LeFevre punt for 46 yds , Willie Wright returns for 9 yds to the FlAtl 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 32PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
97.2%
Kerrith Whyte Jr. run for 5 yds to the FlAtl 15Similar
Q4 5:25
2ND & 5
OWN 15
-3
97.2%
Kerrith Whyte Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the FlAtl 12Similar
Q4 5:25
3RD & 8
OWN 12
0
97.3%
Rafe Peavey pass incomplete to Ladante HarrisSimilar
Q4 5:25
4TH & 8
OWN 12
0
97.3%
Sebastian Riella punt for 58 yds, downed at the Marsh 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 33TD
6 plays · 70 yds · 2:2398% → 100%
Q4 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
97.9%
Tyler King run for 4 yds to the Marsh 34Similar
Q4 3:58
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+2
97.9%
Keion Davis run for 2 yds to the Marsh 36Similar
Q4 3:58
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+41
98.0%
Keion Davis run for 41 yds to the FlAtl 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+20
98.1%
Alex Thomson run for 20 yds to the FlAtl 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.8%
Alex Thomson run for 3 yds for a TD, (Justin Rohrwasser KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 34DOWNS
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
99.4%
De'Andre Johnson run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 34Similar
Q4 1:35
2ND & 6
OWN 34
-8
99.4%
De'Andre Johnson sacked by Koby Cumberlander and Jaquan Yulee for a loss of 8 yards to the FlAtl 26Similar
Q4 1:35
3RD & 14
OWN 26
+10
99.4%
De'Andre Johnson pass complete to Ladante Harris for 10 yds to the FlAtl 36Similar
Q4 1:35
4TH & 4
OWN 36
0
99.4%
De'Andre Johnson pass incomplete to Ladante HarrisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MRSHDrive 35END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:13
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-2
99.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlAtl 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:18
Alex Thomson pass complete to Armani Levias for 13 yds for a TD, (Justin Rohrwasser KICK)
+14.4
TD · Q3 13:52
Tyler King run for 17 yds for a TD, (Justin Rohrwasser KICK)
+10.8
TD · Q2 3:26
Alex Thomson pass complete to Armani Levias for 29 yds for a TD, (Justin Rohrwasser KICK)
+9.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com