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USM

Southern Miss 7 at North Texas 30

UNT
2018 · Week 7 · Oct 13, 2018 · DATCU Stadium
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Win probability · UNT
modelUNT aheadUSM aheadconfidence bandkey playUNT scoreUSM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:33 · Trivenskey Mosley run for 6 yds to the SoMis 19
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:11: Mason Fine pass complete to Jalen Guyton for 53 yds for a TD (Cole Hedlund KICK) — UNT win probability +6.1 pts (now 74%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 11:06: Jack Abraham pass complete to Quez Watkins for 44 yds for a TD (Parker Shaunfield KICK) — USM win probability +7.1 pts (now 36%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 6:49: DeAndre Torrey run for 1 yd to the NoTex 23 — UNT win probability +6.5 pts (now 69%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:34: DeAndre Torrey run for 6 yds for a TD (Cole Hedlund PAT BLOCKED) — UNT win probability +13.0 pts (now 86%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:45: DeAndre Torrey run for 8 yds for a TD SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined (Cole Hedlund KICK) — UNT win probability +9.8 pts (now 96%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNT made the numbers' call on 3 of 7USM made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 13:31UNT 4th & 12 at UNT 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.9%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:43USM 4th & 10 at UNT 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.1%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    31.0%−0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    31.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:42UNT 4th & 18 at USM 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.9%−0.3
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:00USM 4th & 23 at UNT 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.8%−0.6
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:11UNT 4th & 4 at USM 24, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 66.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.4%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.1%−0.3
    68% to make
    Punt
    62.0%−4.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:34USM 4th & 1 at UNT 44, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    29.9%−3.3
    27% to make
    Punt
    30.7%−2.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:07UNT 4th & 10 at USM 43, up 3
    Close callPunted · 67.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.1%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    66.6%−0.5
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    67.0%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:30USM 4th & 4 at USM 44, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.2%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.4%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:36USM 4th & 12 at UNT 28, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.5%−1.7
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.2%
    60% to make
    Punt
    25.6%−6.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:36UNT 4th & 5 at UNT 44, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.1%−0.5
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:49UNT 4th & 2 at UNT 30, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 67.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.4%−1.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:04USM 4th & 11 at USM 30, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.0%−2.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00USM 4th & 13 at USM 26, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.9%−3.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:45USM 4th & 11 at USM 35, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.1%−0.5
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.6%
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:51UNT 4th & 3 at UNT 46, up 16
    Close callPunted · 95.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.8%−0.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:16USM 4th & 18 at UNT 42, down 16
    Close callWent for it · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.8%−0.3
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    4.0%−0.1
    30% to make
    Punt
    4.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNT made the numbers' call on 3 of 4USM made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 13:11UNT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:06USM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 0:34UNT Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    86.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 10:45UNT Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.8%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.9%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 0:33UNT Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNTDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 22 yds · 1:2970% → 70%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
70.2%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jalen Guyton for 10 yds to the NoTex 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
70.2%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jalen Guyton for 9 yds to the NoTex 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+5
70.2%
Mason Fine pass complete to Caleb Chumley for 5 yds to the NoTex 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
70.2%
Mason Fine pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:31
2ND & 10
OWN 49
-2
70.1%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jaelon Darden for a loss of 2 yards to the NoTex 47Similar
Q1 13:31
3RD & 12
OWN 47
0
70.0%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Caleb ChumleySimilar
Q1 13:31
4TH & 12
OWN 47
0
70.0%
Alvin Kenworthy punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SoMis 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 2PUNT
10 plays · 39 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q1 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+8
69.9%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for 8 yds to the SoMis 27Similar
Q1 12:43
2ND & 2
OWN 27
+7
69.8%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jordan Mitchell for 7 yds to the SoMis 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
69.8%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jay'Shawn Washington for 8 yds to the SoMis 42Similar
Q1 12:43
2ND & 2
OWN 42
-2
69.7%
Tez Parks run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 40Similar
Q1 12:43
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+5
69.8%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jordan Mitchell for 5 yds to the SoMis 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+13
69.7%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jordan Mitchell for 13 yds to the NoTex 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
69.7%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Quez Watkins for no gain to the NoTex 42Similar
Q1 12:43
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
69.7%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Quez WatkinsSimilar
Q1 12:43
3RD & 10
OPP 42
0
69.7%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Jordan MitchellSimilar
Q1 12:43
4TH & 10
OPP 42
0
69.9%
Zac Everett punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 3PUNT
11 plays · 32 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q1 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
69.4%
Mason Fine run for no gain to the NoTex 20Similar
Q1 8:42
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+15
69.4%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Rachuan Mitchell) to the NoTex 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
69.5%
Nic Smith run for 4 yds to the NoTex 39Similar
Q1 8:42
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+10
69.8%
Mason Fine pass complete to Rico Bussey Jr. for 10 yds to the NoTex 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
69.9%
Mason Fine pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:42
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+11
69.8%
Mason Fine pass complete to Cudjoe Young for 11 yds to the SoMis 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:42
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
70.0%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Michael LawrenceSimilar
Q1 8:42
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+1
70.0%
Nic Smith run for 1 yd to the SoMis 39Similar
Q1 8:42
3RD & 9
OPP 39
-4
69.9%
Evan Johnson run for a loss of 4 yards to the SoMis 43Similar
Q1 8:42
4TH & 13
OPP 43
-5
69.2%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, false start (E.J. Ejiya) to the SoMis 48Similar
Q1 8:42
4TH & 18
OPP 48
+7
69.2%
Alvin Kenworthy punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SoMis 7 , Quez Watkins returns for 7 yds to the SoMis 41 SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, illegal block (7 Yards) to the SoMis 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 44 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
68.9%
Steven Anderson run for no gain to the SoMis 7Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 10
OWN 7
+9
68.9%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jordan Mitchell for 9 yds to the SoMis 16Similar
Q1 5:00
3RD & 1
OWN 16
+3
68.8%
Steven Anderson run for 3 yds to the SoMis 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+45
68.6%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Quez Watkins for 45 yds to the NoTex 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
67.6%
Jack Abraham run for a loss of 7 yards to the NoTex 44 Jack Abraham fumbled, recovered by SoMis Jack Abraham , return for no gain to the NoTex 44Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 18
OPP 44
+6
68.0%
Jack Abraham run for 6 yds to the NoTex 38Similar
Q1 5:00
3RD & 12
OPP 38
-11
68.1%
Jack Abraham sacked by LaDarius Hamilton for a loss of 11 yards to the NoTex 49Similar
Q1 5:00
4TH & 23
OPP 49
0
68.8%
Zac Everett punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NoTex 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 5TD
8 plays · 99 yds · 2:4568% → 74%
Q1 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
68.3%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to DeAndre TorreySimilar
Q1 0:56
2ND & 10
OWN 1
0
68.3%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to DeAndre TorreySimilar
Q1 0:56
3RD & 10
OWN 1
+10
67.8%
Mason Fine pass complete to Kelvin Smith for 10 yds to the NoTex 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+16
68.4%
Mason Fine pass complete to DeAndre Torrey for 16 yds to the NoTex 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-5
68.6%
DeAndre Torrey run for a loss of 5 yards to the NoTex 22Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 22
+10
68.2%
Mason Fine pass complete to Kelvin Smith for 10 yds to the NoTex 32Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 32
+15
68.2%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 15 yds to the NoTex 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+53
74.3%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jalen Guyton for 53 yds for a TD (Cole Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 6TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:0527% → 36%
Q2 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
72.9%
Trivenskey Mosley run for 3 yds to the SoMis 28Similar
Q2 13:11
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+13
72.8%
Trivenskey Mosley run for 13 yds to the SoMis 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
72.2%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Quez Watkins for 7 yds to the SoMis 48Similar
Q2 13:11
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+8
71.7%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jordan Mitchell for 8 yds to the NoTex 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:06
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+44
64.5%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Quez Watkins for 44 yds for a TD (Parker Shaunfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 7FG
10 plays · 43 yds · 3:5568% → 71%
Q2 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-10
68.2%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Offensive holding (Michael Lawrence) to the NoTex 23Similar
Q2 11:06
1ST & 20
OWN 23
+2
67.8%
Mason Fine run for 2 yds to the NoTex 25Similar
Q2 11:06
2ND & 18
OWN 25
+32
67.7%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jalen Guyton for 32 yds to the SoMis 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:06
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+8
69.7%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 8 yds to the SoMis 35Similar
Q2 11:06
2ND & 2
OPP 35
+5
70.3%
DeAndre Torrey run for 5 yds to the SoMis 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:06
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
70.3%
DeAndre Torrey run for 1 yd to the SoMis 29Similar
Q2 11:06
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+5
70.2%
Mason Fine pass complete to Kelvin Smith for 5 yds to the SoMis 24Similar
Q2 11:06
3RD & 4
OPP 24
0
69.7%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Kelvin SmithSimilar
Q2 7:11
4TH & 4
OPP 24
+41
70.5%
Cole Hedlund 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 8DOWNS
11 plays · 30 yds · 2:3731% → 31%
Q2 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
69.0%
Trivenskey Mosley run for 5 yds to the SoMis 29Similar
Q2 7:11
2ND & 5
OWN 29
-9
68.6%
Jack Abraham sacked by E.J. Ejiya for a loss of 9 yards to the SoMis 20Similar
Q2 7:11
3RD & 14
OWN 20
+15
70.0%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (E.J. Ejiya) to the SoMis 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
68.6%
Tez Parks run for 8 yds to the SoMis 43Similar
Q2 7:11
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+4
67.3%
Tez Parks run for 4 yds to the SoMis 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
67.1%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Picasso Nelson Jr., broken up by Cam JohnsonSimilar
Q2 7:11
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+9
67.5%
Trivenskey Mosley run for 9 yds to the NoTex 44Similar
Q2 4:34
3RD & 1
OPP 44
0
68.2%
Steven Anderson run for no gain to the NoTex 44Similar
Q2 4:34
4TH & 1
OPP 44
-2
69.5%
Steven Anderson run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoTex 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 11 yds · 0:0072% → 70%
Q2 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+11
71.7%
Mason Fine pass complete to Michael Lawrence for 11 yds to the SoMis 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:07
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
72.1%
Mason Fine pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:07
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
71.9%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Jalen GuytonSimilar
Q2 4:07
3RD & 10
OPP 43
0
71.2%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Jalen GuytonSimilar
Q2 4:07
4TH & 10
OPP 43
0
69.6%
Alvin Kenworthy punt for 32 yds, downed at the SoMis 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 10INT
5 plays · 32 yds · 0:0029% → 31%
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
70.9%
Trivenskey Mosley run for no gain to the SoMis 11Similar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 10
OWN 11
0
71.0%
Tez Parks run for no gain to the SoMis 11Similar
Q2 3:15
3RD & 10
OWN 11
+32
71.7%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for 32 yds to the SoMis 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
69.1%
Jack Abraham pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+23
69.5%
Jack Abraham pass intercepted Taylor Robinson return for 23 yds to the NoTex 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 11FUMBLE
2 plays · 17 yds · 0:0071% → 72%
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+10
70.8%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jalen Guyton for 10 yds to the SoMis 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
71.6%
Mason Fine run for a loss of 5 yards to the SoMis 38 Mason Fine fumbled, forced by Darius Kennedy, recovered by SoMis Racheem BootheSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:4231% → 30%
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
69.0%
Trivenskey Mosley run for 3 yds to the SoMis 41Similar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 7
OWN 41
-7
68.3%
Jack Abraham sacked by LaDarius Hamilton for a loss of 7 yards to the SoMis 34Similar
Q2 0:37
3RD & 14
OWN 34
+10
71.4%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for 10 yds to the SoMis 44Similar
Q2 0:30
4TH & 4
OWN 44
0
69.8%
Zac Everett punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NoTex 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 13END OF HALF
4 plays · 18 yds · 0:0969% → 69%
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+13
69.0%
Mason Fine run for 13 yds to the NoTex 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
69.2%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Michael LawrenceSimilar
Q2 0:14
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+5
68.6%
Evan Johnson run for 5 yds to the NoTex 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 14MISSED FG
7 plays · 42 yds · 2:2433% → 32%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
67.3%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jordan Mitchell for 11 yds to the SoMis 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+33
65.6%
Trivenskey Mosley run for 33 yds to the NoTex 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-2
63.4%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for a loss of 2 yards to the NoTex 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 28
0
63.8%
Trivenskey Mosley run for no gain to the NoTex 28Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 28
0
65.6%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Quez WatkinsSimilar
Q3 12:36
4TH & 12
OPP 28
+45
67.9%
Parker Shaunfield 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:0069% → 68%
Q3 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
69.0%
Nic Smith run for 4 yds to the NoTex 32Similar
Q3 12:36
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+7
69.3%
Nic Smith run for 7 yds to the NoTex 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
70.0%
Mason Fine run for 2 yds to the NoTex 41Similar
Q3 12:36
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+1
70.5%
Mason Fine pass complete to Rico Bussey Jr. for 1 yd to the NoTex 42Similar
Q3 12:36
3RD & 7
OWN 42
+2
68.9%
Mason Fine pass complete to DeAndre Torrey for 2 yds to the NoTex 44Similar
Q3 12:36
4TH & 5
OWN 44
0
68.2%
Alvin Kenworthy punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Quez Watkins at the SoMis 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 16FUMBLE
7 plays · 75 yds · 0:0033% → 38%
Q3 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+15
67.5%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Cam Johnson) to the SoMis 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
66.9%
Trivenskey Mosley run for 5 yds to the SoMis 34Similar
Q3 9:32
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+3
65.7%
Trivenskey Mosley run for 3 yds to the SoMis 37Similar
Q3 9:32
3RD & 2
OWN 37
+40
65.8%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jordan Mitchell for 40 yds to the NoTex 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
62.3%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for 1 yd to the NoTex 22Similar
Q3 9:32
2ND & 9
OPP 22
+14
62.3%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for 14 yds to the NoTex 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+11
62.3%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Trivenskey Mosley for a loss of 3 yards Trivenskey Mosley fumbled, forced by Khairi Muhammad, recovered by NoTex Khairi Muhammad , return for 11 yds to the NoTex 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0069% → 67%
Q3 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
68.8%
DeAndre Torrey run for 1 yd to the NoTex 23Similar
Q3 6:49
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+4
68.5%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jalen Guyton for 4 yds to the NoTex 27Similar
Q3 6:49
3RD & 5
OWN 27
+3
67.9%
Mason Fine pass complete to Evan Johnson for 3 yds to the NoTex 30Similar
Q3 6:49
4TH & 2
OWN 30
0
67.3%
Alvin Kenworthy punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Quez Watkins at the SoMis 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0034% → 30%
Q3 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
66.2%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Jordan Mitchell, broken up by Jameel MooreSimilar
Q3 5:04
2ND & 10
OWN 31
-1
66.8%
Tez Parks run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 30Similar
Q3 5:04
3RD & 11
OWN 30
0
68.4%
Jack Abraham pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:04
4TH & 11
OWN 30
0
69.7%
Zac Everett punt for 38 yds, downed at the NoTex 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 19TD
9 plays · 68 yds · 3:2969% → 86%
Q3 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
68.8%
Mason Fine pass incomplete, broken up by Demarrio SmithSimilar
Q3 4:03
2ND & 10
OWN 32
-1
68.4%
Evan Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 31Similar
Q3 4:03
3RD & 11
OWN 31
+33
66.8%
Mason Fine pass complete to Michael Lawrence for 33 yds to the SoMis 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
72.0%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Nic Smith, broken up by D.Q. ThomasSimilar
Q3 4:03
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+6
71.9%
Mason Fine pass complete to Rico Bussey Jr. for 16 yds to the SoMis 20 NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Offensive holding (Cudjoe Young) to the SoMis 30Similar
Q3 4:03
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+8
72.9%
Nic Smith run for 8 yds to the SoMis 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+16
72.9%
Nic Smith run for 16 yds to the SoMis 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
72.9%
Nic Smith run for no gain to the SoMis 6Similar
Q3 0:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
85.9%
DeAndre Torrey run for 6 yds for a TD (Cole Hedlund PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:3417% → 15%
Q3 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
82.9%
Kwadra Griggs pass incomplete to Quez WatkinsSimilar
Q3 0:34
2ND & 10
OWN 29
-2
83.5%
Kwadra Griggs run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 27Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 27
-1
84.8%
Kwadra Griggs pass complete to Tez Parks for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 26Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 13
OWN 26
0
85.3%
Zac Everett punt for 22 yds, downed at the SoMis 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 21TD
7 plays · 48 yds · 3:2286% → 96%
Q4 14:07
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
85.7%
DeAndre Torrey run for 4 yds to the SoMis 44Similar
Q4 14:07
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+6
85.8%
DeAndre Torrey run for 6 yds to the SoMis 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:07
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+14
85.8%
Mason Fine pass complete to Rico Bussey Jr. for 14 yds to the SoMis 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:07
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
86.0%
DeAndre Torrey run for 3 yds to the SoMis 21Similar
Q4 14:07
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+7
86.0%
DeAndre Torrey run for 7 yds to the SoMis 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:07
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+6
86.0%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jalen Guyton for 6 yds to the SoMis 8Similar
Q4 10:45
2ND & 4
OPP 8
+8
95.8%
DeAndre Torrey run for 8 yds for a TD SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined (Cole Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q4 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
94.0%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jordan Mitchell for 5 yds to the SoMis 30Similar
Q4 10:45
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
93.5%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Quez WatkinsSimilar
Q4 10:45
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+6
93.7%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Tim Jones for 6 yds to the SoMis 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
93.5%
Trivenskey Mosley run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 35Similar
Q4 10:45
2ND & 11
OWN 35
0
93.9%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Quez Watkins, broken up by Joe OzougwuSimilar
Q4 10:45
3RD & 11
OWN 35
0
94.2%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Jordan Mitchell, broken up by Cam JohnsonSimilar
Q4 10:45
4TH & 11
OWN 35
0
94.3%
Zac Everett punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NoTex 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 8:51
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
95.9%
DeAndre Torrey run for 3 yds to the NoTex 42Similar
Q4 8:51
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+4
96.0%
DeAndre Torrey run for 4 yds to the NoTex 46Similar
Q4 8:51
3RD & 3
OWN 46
0
95.9%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Jalen GuytonSimilar
Q4 8:51
4TH & 3
OWN 46
0
95.6%
Alvin Kenworthy punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Quez Watkins at the SoMis 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 24DOWNS
11 plays · 42 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q4 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+8
95.4%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jordan Mitchell for 8 yds to the SoMis 24Similar
Q4 7:16
2ND & 2
OWN 24
-1
94.9%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Quez Watkins for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 23Similar
Q4 7:16
3RD & 3
OWN 23
+11
95.3%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jordan Mitchell for 11 yds to the SoMis 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
95.0%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jordan Mitchell for 7 yds to the SoMis 41Similar
Q4 7:16
2ND & 3
OWN 41
+5
94.9%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Quez Watkins for 5 yds to the SoMis 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
94.8%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Quez Watkins for 9 yds to the NoTex 45Similar
Q4 7:16
2ND & 1
OPP 45
+11
94.4%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Jordan Mitchell for 11 yds to the NoTex 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:16
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
94.2%
Jack Abraham pass complete to Trivenskey Mosley for no gain to the NoTex 34Similar
Q4 7:16
2ND & 10
OPP 34
-8
94.2%
Jack Abraham sacked by E.J. Ejiya for a loss of 8 yards to the NoTex 42Similar
Q4 7:16
3RD & 18
OPP 42
0
95.3%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Tim Jones, broken up by Nate BrooksSimilar
Q4 7:16
4TH & 18
OPP 42
0
95.5%
Jack Abraham pass incomplete to Tim Jones, broken up by Jameel MooreSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 25TD
8 plays · 58 yds · 2:3398% → 100%
Q4 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
97.7%
DeAndre Torrey run for 1 yd to the NoTex 43Similar
Q4 3:06
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+6
97.7%
Mason Fine run for 6 yds to the NoTex 49Similar
Q4 2:13
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+8
98.2%
DeAndre Torrey run for 8 yds to the SoMis 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
98.3%
DeAndre Torrey run for 3 yds to the SoMis 40Similar
Q4 2:13
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+6
98.3%
DeAndre Torrey run for 6 yds to the SoMis 34Similar
Q4 0:33
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+34
99.7%
DeAndre Torrey run for 34 yds for a TD (Cole Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 26END OF GAME
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+6
99.7%
Trivenskey Mosley run for 6 yds to the SoMis 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:34
DeAndre Torrey run for 6 yds for a TD (Cole Hedlund PAT BLOCKED)
+13
TD · Q4 10:45
DeAndre Torrey run for 8 yds for a TD SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined (Cole Hedlund KICK)
+9.8
TD · Q2 11:06
Jack Abraham pass complete to Quez Watkins for 44 yds for a TD (Parker Shaunfield KICK)
-7.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com