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Louisiana Tech 29 at North Texas 27

UNT
2018 · Week 5 · Sep 29, 2018 · DATCU Stadium
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Win probability · UNT
modelUNT aheadLT aheadconfidence bandkey playUNT scoreLT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDFGTDFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 15:00 · Brady Farlow punt for 29 yds, downed at the NoTex 21
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+30.0+15.00−15.0−30.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 114Pregame prior+8.9Home team on offense−6.6Score differential−2.7Garbage-time factor−1.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:28: Loren Easly run for 9 yds for a TD (Cole Hedlund KICK) — UNT win probability +4.7 pts (now 76%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:30: J'Mar Smith pass complete to Adrian Hardy for 8 yds for a TD (Bailey Hale KICK) — LT win probability +9.0 pts (now 34%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q2 0:32: J'Mar Smith pass complete to Alfred Smith for 5 yds for a TD (Bailey Hale KICK) — LT win probability +16.6 pts (now 51%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 7:08: Bailey Hale 42 yd FG GOOD — LT win probability +8.9 pts (now 63%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 1:57: Mason Fine pass complete to Rico Bussey Jr. for 7 yds for a TD Timeout NORTH TEXAS, clock 01:57 (Two-Point Conversion failed) — UNT win probability +12.4 pts (now 55%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNT made the numbers' call on 8 of 9LT made the numbers' call on 6 of 11
  1. Q1 10:25LT 4th & 3 at UNT 11, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 30.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.2%
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.1%−0.1
    87% to make
    Punt
    29.6%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:25UNT 4th & 8 at UNT 36, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.7%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:26LT 4th & 1 at LT 33, down 4
    Close callPunted · 30.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.6%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:04LT 4th & 8 at UNT 20, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.6%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.9%
    75% to make
    Punt
    25.7%−2.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:30LT 4th & 5 at UNT 5, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.9%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.9%
    92% to make
    Punt
    18.0%−3.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:30UNT 4th & 7 at UNT 36, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.0%−0.5
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:30UNT 4th & 26 at UNT 4, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.9%−3.6
    5% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:30LT 4th & 8 at UNT 11, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.0%−0.7
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.7%
    87% to make
    Punt
    25.8%−6.0
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:57LT 4th & 11 at UNT 35, down 2
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.6 ptsPunted · 33.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.5%−0.7
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    34.2%
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    32.6%−1.6
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:06UNT 4th & 15 at UNT 32, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.3%−1.8
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 15:00LT 4th & 2 at midfield, up 5
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsPunted · 49.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.1%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.3%−1.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:34UNT 4th & 15 at UNT 16, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.2%−4.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.7%
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:08LT 4th & 8 at UNT 25, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.3%−0.6
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.0%
    66% to make
    Punt
    43.3%−11.7
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:57UNT 4th & 3 at LT 7, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.7%
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    33.0%−1.7
    91% to make
    Punt
    19.6%−15.1
    average punt
  15. Q3 1:57LT 4th & 7 at LT 25, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.5%−2.8
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:36UNT 4th & 2 at LT 24, down 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsKicked a field goal · 54.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.8%−1.6
    68% to make
    Punt
    37.9%−16.6
    average punt
  17. Q4 12:36LT 4th & 7 at LT 39, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.5%−1.6
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.1%
    average punt
  18. Q4 9:31UNT 4th & 20 at LT 46, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.9%−5.1
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    46.4%−2.6
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    49.0%
    average punt
  19. Q4 4:28LT 4th & 1 at LT 21, up 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 5.0 ptsPunted · 62.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.2%−5.0
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:33UNT 4th & 2 at LT 29, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.3%−12.4
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.8%
    58% to make
    Punt
    13.1%−33.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNT made the numbers' call on 3 of 4LT made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 11:57UNT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:24UNT Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:28UNT Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:30LT Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:32LT Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 1:57UNT Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    55.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    55.0%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNTDrive 1TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 3:0368% → 69%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
67.9%
Mason Fine pass complete to Rico Bussey Jr. for 8 yds to the NoTex 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+4
67.9%
Loren Easly run for 4 yds to the NoTex 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+13
67.9%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jalen Guyton for 13 yds to the NoTex 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
67.9%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Jalen GuytonSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+6
67.9%
Loren Easly run for 6 yds to the LaTch 49Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 49
+8
67.9%
Mason Fine run for 8 yds to the LaTch 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
67.9%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jalen Guyton for 5 yds to the LaTch 36Similar
Q1 11:57
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+36
68.9%
Mason Fine pass complete to Michael Lawrence for 36 yds for a TD (Cole Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 2FG
7 plays · 64 yds · 1:3232% → 32%
Q1 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
68.5%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Adrian Hardy for 9 yds to the LaTch 34Similar
Q1 11:57
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+48
68.3%
Israel Tucker run for 48 yds to the NoTex 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
68.1%
J'Mar Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:57
2ND & 10
OPP 18
0
68.1%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Rhashid BonnetteSimilar
Q1 11:57
3RD & 10
OPP 18
+7
68.2%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Rhashid Bonnette for 7 yds to the NoTex 11Similar
Q1 10:25
4TH & 3
OPP 11
+28
67.6%
Bailey Hale 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q1 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
67.8%
Loren Easly run for 2 yds to the NoTex 36Similar
Q1 10:25
2ND & 8
OWN 36
0
67.8%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Jalen GuytonSimilar
Q1 10:25
3RD & 8
OWN 36
0
67.7%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Jalen GuytonSimilar
Q1 10:25
4TH & 8
OWN 36
0
67.5%
Alvin Kenworthy punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Teddy Veal at the LaTch 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q1 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
68.0%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Teddy Veal for 7 yds to the LaTch 31Similar
Q1 9:26
2ND & 3
OWN 31
0
67.8%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Rhashid BonnetteSimilar
Q1 9:26
3RD & 3
OWN 31
+2
68.0%
J'Mar Smith run for 2 yds to the LaTch 33Similar
Q1 9:26
4TH & 1
OWN 33
0
68.1%
Brady Farlow punt for 55 yds, downed at the NoTex 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 5TD
8 plays · 88 yds · 3:5068% → 72%
Q1 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+23
67.6%
Loren Easly run for 23 yds to the NoTex 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+29
67.7%
Mason Fine pass complete to DeAndre Torrey for 29 yds to the LaTch 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+13
68.3%
Loren Easly run for 13 yds to the LaTch 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
68.5%
Mason Fine run for 1 yd to the LaTch 22Similar
Q1 8:14
2ND & 9
OPP 22
-4
68.5%
Mason Fine sacked by Jaylon Ferguson for a loss of 4 yards to the LaTch 26Similar
Q1 8:14
3RD & 13
OPP 26
+20
67.9%
Mason Fine pass complete to Nic Smith for 20 yds to the LaTch 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-3
68.5%
Loren Easly run for a loss of 3 yards to the LaTch 9Similar
Q1 4:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
71.8%
Mason Fine pass complete to Rico Bussey Jr. for 9 yds for a TD (Cole Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 6FG
6 plays · 45 yds · 1:2030% → 29%
Q1 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+43
70.3%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Rhashid Bonnette for 43 yds to the NoTex 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:24
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
69.2%
Israel Tucker run for 2 yds to the NoTex 20Similar
Q1 4:24
2ND & 8
OPP 20
0
69.2%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Adrian Hardy, broken up by Nate BrooksSimilar
Q1 4:24
3RD & 8
OPP 20
0
69.7%
J'Mar Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:04
4TH & 8
OPP 20
+37
70.6%
Bailey Hale 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 7TD
6 plays · 62 yds · 1:3671% → 76%
Q1 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
71.3%
Loren Easly run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 37Similar
Q1 3:04
2ND & 11
OWN 37
+30
70.9%
Mason Fine pass complete to Loren Easly for 30 yds to the LaTch 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:04
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+14
71.7%
DeAndre Torrey run for 14 yds to the LaTch 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:04
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+10
71.7%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, face mask (10 yards) (10 Yards) to the LaTch 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
76.4%
Loren Easly run for 9 yds for a TD (Cole Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 8FG
20 plays · 79 yds · 6:5828% → 24%
Q1 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
72.5%
Israel Tucker run for 5 yds to the LaTch 21Similar
Q1 1:28
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+3
72.4%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Alfred Smith for 3 yds to the LaTch 24Similar
Q1 1:28
3RD & 2
OWN 24
+8
72.5%
J'Mar Smith run for 8 yds to the LaTch 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
72.8%
Israel Tucker run for 1 yd to the LaTch 33Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 33
0
72.8%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Adrian Hardy, broken up by Nate BrooksSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 33
+11
73.1%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Adrian Hardy for 11 yds to the LaTch 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+13
72.5%
Israel Tucker run for 13 yds to the NoTex 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
72.1%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Teddy Veal for 2 yds to the NoTex 41Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 41
0
72.2%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Adrian HardySimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 41
+5
72.2%
J'Mar Smith sacked by Roderick Young for a loss of 10 yards to the NORTHTEXAS 49 for a 1ST down NORTH TEXAS Penalty, personal foul (E.J. Ejiya) to the NoTex 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
72.1%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Teddy Veal for 6 yds to the NoTex 30Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+7
71.4%
Israel Tucker run for 7 yds to the NoTex 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
71.4%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Teddy VealSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
71.6%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Teddy VealSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 23
+15
72.2%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Taylor Robinson) to the NoTex 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
71.4%
Israel Tucker run for 3 yds to the NoTex 5Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
71.4%
Israel Tucker run for no gain to the NoTex 5Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
71.9%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Adrian HardySimilar
Q2 9:30
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
75.6%
Bailey Hale 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0079% → 78%
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
78.5%
Loren Easly run for 3 yds to the NoTex 36Similar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 7
OWN 36
0
78.8%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Rico Bussey Jr.Similar
Q2 9:30
3RD & 7
OWN 36
0
78.2%
Mason Fine pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:30
4TH & 7
OWN 36
0
77.6%
Alvin Kenworthy punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Teddy Veal at the LaTch 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 10TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 4:0023% → 34%
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+27
76.7%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Teddy Veal for 27 yds to the LaTch 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
75.9%
Kam McKnight run for 8 yds to the NoTex 45Similar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+2
75.4%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Cee Jay Powell for 2 yds to the NoTex 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
75.6%
Kam McKnight run for 1 yd to the NoTex 42Similar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+16
75.6%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Adrian Hardy for 16 yds to the NoTex 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+15
74.6%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Jameel Moore) to the NoTex 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
74.6%
J'Mar Smith run for 2 yds to the NoTex 9Similar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+1
74.6%
Israel Tucker run for 1 yd to the NoTex 8Similar
Q2 4:30
3RD & 7
OPP 8
+8
65.6%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Adrian Hardy for 8 yds for a TD (Bailey Hale KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · -16 yds · 0:0071% → 69%
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
70.6%
Mason Fine run for 5 yds to the NoTex 25 NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Offensive holding (Rico Bussey Jr.) to the NoTex 15Similar
Q2 4:30
1ST & 15
OWN 15
0
70.4%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Rico Bussey Jr., broken up by Jordan BradfordSimilar
Q2 4:30
2ND & 15
OWN 15
-11
70.3%
Mason Fine sacked by Jaylon Ferguson for a loss of 11 yards to the NoTex 4Similar
Q2 4:30
3RD & 26
OWN 4
0
69.2%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Michael LawrenceSimilar
Q2 4:30
4TH & 26
OWN 4
0
68.7%
Alvin Kenworthy punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Teddy Veal at the NoTex 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 12FG
5 plays · 36 yds · 1:3434% → 36%
Q2 3:04
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+34
65.6%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Rhashid Bonnette for 34 yds to the NoTex 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:04
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
64.5%
Israel Tucker run for 3 yds to the NoTex 10Similar
Q2 3:04
2ND & 7
OPP 10
-1
64.5%
Israel Tucker run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 11Similar
Q2 3:04
3RD & 8
OPP 11
0
65.5%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Rhashid BonnetteSimilar
Q2 1:30
4TH & 8
OPP 11
+28
64.1%
Bailey Hale 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 13FUMBLE
3 plays · 40 yds · 0:0067% → 70%
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+35
66.8%
Mason Fine pass complete to Rico Bussey Jr. for 35 yds to the LaTch 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
69.5%
Mason Fine pass complete to DeAndre Torrey for 5 yds DeAndre Torrey fumbled, forced by Darryl Lewis, recovered by LaTch Amik Robertson , return for 31 yds to the NoTex 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:1239% → 34%
Q2 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
61.2%
J'Mar Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 10
OPP 34
-1
61.2%
Kam McKnight run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 35Similar
Q2 0:57
3RD & 11
OPP 35
0
63.6%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Adrian Hardy, broken up by Nate BrooksSimilar
Q2 0:57
4TH & 11
OPP 35
-3
65.8%
Davan Dyer punt for 27 yds , Jaelon Darden returns for a loss of 3 yards to the NoTex 5 Jaelon Darden fumbled, recovered by LaTch Alex ZayedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 15TD
1 play · 5 yds · 0:0051% → 51%
Q2 0:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
49.3%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Alfred Smith for 5 yds for a TD (Bailey Hale KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · -5 yds · 0:2655% → 51%
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
55.0%
Mason Fine pass complete to Rico Bussey Jr. for 6 yds to the NoTex 43Similar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 4
OWN 43
0
54.3%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Rico Bussey Jr.Similar
Q2 0:22
3RD & 4
OWN 43
-11
53.0%
Mason Fine sacked by Jaylon Ferguson for a loss of 11 yards to the NoTex 32Similar
Q2 0:06
4TH & 15
OWN 32
0
50.9%
Alvin Kenworthy punt for 68 yds, downed at the LaTch 0Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 0:0049% → 50%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
50.8%
Kam McKnight run for 5 yds to the LaTch 30Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
50.0%
Kam McKnight run for 1 yd to the LaTch 31Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+11
50.9%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Adrian Hardy for 11 yds to the LaTch 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
48.8%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Alfred Smith, broken up by Roderick YoungSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+8
49.4%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Adrian Hardy for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
50
0
48.7%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Adrian HardySimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 2
50
0
50.3%
Brady Farlow punt for 29 yds, downed at the NoTex 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:0050% → 48%
Q3 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
50.3%
Mason Fine run for no gain to the NoTex 21Similar
Q3 12:34
2ND & 10
OWN 21
-5
50.1%
Mason Fine sacked by Jaylon Ferguson for a loss of 5 yards to the NoTex 16Similar
Q3 12:34
3RD & 15
OWN 16
0
48.7%
Mason Fine pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:34
4TH & 15
OWN 16
0
48.0%
Alvin Kenworthy punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Teddy Veal at the LaTch 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 19FG
9 plays · 36 yds · 3:4354% → 63%
Q3 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
45.9%
Kam McKnight run for 9 yds to the LaTch 48Similar
Q3 10:51
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+2
45.0%
Kam McKnight run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:51
1ST & 10
50
0
45.0%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Rhashid Bonnette, broken up by Jordan RobertsSimilar
Q3 10:51
2ND & 10
50
+12
45.1%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Adrian Hardy for 12 yds to the NoTex 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:51
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+11
45.0%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Rhashid Bonnette for 11 yds to the NoTex 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:51
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
43.5%
Israel Tucker run for no gain to the NoTex 27Similar
Q3 10:51
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
44.0%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Teddy VealSimilar
Q3 10:51
3RD & 10
OPP 27
+2
45.5%
J'Mar Smith run for 2 yds to the NoTex 25Similar
Q3 7:08
4TH & 8
OPP 25
+42
36.6%
Bailey Hale 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 20TD
12 plays · 70 yds · 5:1139% → 55%
Q3 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
39.1%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Jalen GuytonSimilar
Q3 7:08
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+9
38.6%
Loren Easly run for 9 yds to the NoTex 39Similar
Q3 7:08
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+3
41.1%
Loren Easly run for 3 yds to the NoTex 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+23
41.3%
Mason Fine pass complete to Rico Bussey Jr. for 23 yds to the LaTch 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+10
44.7%
Loren Easly run for 10 yds to the LaTch 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
44.8%
Loren Easly run for 2 yds to the LaTch 23Similar
Q3 7:08
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+9
44.8%
Mason Fine pass complete to Rico Bussey Jr. for 9 yds to the LaTch 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-1
44.8%
Loren Easly run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaTch 15Similar
Q3 7:08
2ND & 11
OPP 15
+2
44.7%
Loren Easly run for 2 yds to the LaTch 13Similar
Q3 7:08
3RD & 9
OPP 13
+6
42.9%
Mason Fine run for 6 yds to the LaTch 7Similar
Q3 1:57
4TH & 3
OPP 7
+7
55.3%
Mason Fine pass complete to Rico Bussey Jr. for 7 yds for a TD Timeout NORTH TEXAS, clock 01:57 (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0051% → 48%
Q3 1:57
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
49.1%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Rhashid Bonnette for 6 yds to the LaTch 28Similar
Q3 1:57
2ND & 4
OWN 28
-3
47.4%
J'Mar Smith sacked by Ulaiasi Tauaalo for a loss of 3 yards to the LaTch 25Similar
Q3 1:57
3RD & 7
OWN 25
0
50.6%
J'Mar Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:57
4TH & 7
OWN 25
0
52.2%
Brady Farlow punt for 17 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LaTch 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 22MISSED FG
6 plays · 18 yds · 2:4158% → 53%
Q3 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
58.3%
Jaelon Darden run for no gain to the LaTch 42Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+10
57.8%
Mason Fine pass complete to Nic Smith for 10 yds to the LaTch 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
59.8%
Loren Easly run for 5 yds to the LaTch 27Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 27
+3
59.8%
Loren Easly run for 3 yds to the LaTch 24Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 24
0
57.5%
Loren Easly run for no gain to the LaTch 24Similar
Q4 12:36
4TH & 2
OPP 24
+41
53.4%
Cole Hedlund 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:0056% → 55%
Q4 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
43.7%
Israel Tucker run for 8 yds to the LaTch 32Similar
Q4 12:36
2ND & 2
OWN 32
+4
41.4%
Israel Tucker run for 4 yds to the LaTch 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
41.7%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Javonte Woodard for 2 yds to the LaTch 38Similar
Q4 12:36
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+1
40.6%
Israel Tucker run for 1 yd to the LaTch 39Similar
Q4 12:36
3RD & 7
OWN 39
0
41.9%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Adrian Hardy, broken up by Khairi MuhammadSimilar
Q4 12:36
4TH & 7
OWN 39
+7
45.1%
Davan Dyer punt for 47 yds , Keegan Brewer returns for 7 yds to the NoTex 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 24PUNT
12 plays · 33 yds · 0:0050% → 47%
Q4 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
49.6%
Loren Easly run for 8 yds to the NoTex 29Similar
Q4 9:31
2ND & 2
OWN 29
+14
53.1%
Loren Easly run for 14 yds to the NoTex 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
54.8%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jalen Guyton for 4 yds to the NoTex 47Similar
Q4 9:31
2ND & 6
OWN 47
-9
55.6%
Mason Fine pass complete to Nic Smith for a loss of 9 yards to the NoTex 38Similar
Q4 9:31
3RD & 15
OWN 38
+16
48.6%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jalen Guyton for 16 yds to the LaTch 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-3
56.6%
Loren Easly run for a loss of 3 yards to the LaTch 49Similar
Q4 9:31
2ND & 13
OPP 49
0
52.6%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Rico Bussey Jr., broken up by L'Jarius SneedSimilar
Q4 9:31
3RD & 13
OPP 49
+13
49.9%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jalen Guyton for 13 yds to the LaTch 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
56.6%
Loren Easly run for 2 yds to the LaTch 34Similar
Q4 9:31
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+1
58.4%
Nic Smith run for 1 yd to the LaTch 33Similar
Q4 9:31
3RD & 7
OPP 33
-13
55.7%
Mason Fine sacked by Collin Scott and Daniel Lewis Jr. for a loss of 13 yards to the LaTch 46Similar
Q4 9:31
4TH & 20
OPP 46
0
47.1%
Alvin Kenworthy punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Teddy Veal at the LaTch 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0068% → 65%
Q4 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
31.8%
Kam McKnight run for 3 yds to the LaTch 15Similar
Q4 4:28
2ND & 7
OWN 15
+5
32.1%
Kam McKnight run for 5 yds to the LaTch 20Similar
Q4 4:28
3RD & 2
OWN 20
+1
32.7%
Kam McKnight run for 1 yd to the LaTch 21Similar
Q4 4:28
4TH & 1
OWN 21
0
34.7%
Davan Dyer punt for 65 yds, downed at the NoTex 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 26MISSED FG
10 plays · 57 yds · 1:3338% → 22%
Q4 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+12
37.8%
Mason Fine pass complete to Nic Smith for 12 yds to the NoTex 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
38.9%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Rico Bussey Jr.Similar
Q4 2:06
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+7
37.3%
Mason Fine pass complete to Rico Bussey Jr. for 7 yds to the NoTex 33Similar
Q4 2:06
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+30
38.0%
Nic Smith run for 30 yds to the LaTch 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:06
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+8
46.1%
Mason Fine pass complete to Rico Bussey Jr. for 8 yds to the LaTch 29Similar
Q4 0:51
2ND & 2
OPP 29
0
42.7%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Rico Bussey Jr., broken up by L'Jarius SneedSimilar
Q4 0:51
3RD & 2
OPP 29
0
39.3%
Nic Smith run for no gain to the LaTch 29Similar
Q4 0:33
4TH & 2
OPP 29
+46
22.4%
Cole Hedlund 46 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Amik Robertson Daniel Lewis Jr. return for no gain to the LaTch 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 27END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q4 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
7.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaTch 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:32
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Alfred Smith for 5 yds for a TD (Bailey Hale KICK)
-16.6
TD · Q3 1:57
Mason Fine pass complete to Rico Bussey Jr. for 7 yds for a TD Timeout NORTH TEXAS, clock 01:57 (Two-Point Conversion failed)
+12.4
TD · Q2 4:30
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Adrian Hardy for 8 yds for a TD (Bailey Hale KICK)
-9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com