Try the model
FAU

Florida Atlantic 24 at Middle Tennessee 25

MTSU
2018 · Week 5 · Sep 29, 2018 · Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MTSU
modelMTSU aheadFAU aheadconfidence bandkey playMTSU scoreFAU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 6:19 · Sebastian Riella punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Ty Lee at the FlAtl 43
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+26.0+13.00−13.0−26.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 185Home team on offense−20.1Score differential−3.7Garbage-time factor−9.3Pregame prior−0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−6.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:12: Chris Robison run for 45 yds for a TD (Vladimir Rivas KICK) — FAU win probability +13.4 pts (now 81%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:23: Brent Stockstill pass complete to Tavares Thomas for 1 yd for a TD (Crews Holt KICK) — MTSU win probability +7.9 pts (now 35%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 9:00: Vladimir Rivas 44 yd FG GOOD — FAU win probability +7.3 pts (now 81%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 1:02: Brad Anderson run for 29 yds for a TD (Crews Holt KICK) — MTSU win probability +21.0 pts (now 39%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:38: Tavares Thomas run for 1 yd for a TD (Brent Stockstill pass to Gatlin Casey for Two-Point Conversion) — MTSU win probability +40.2 pts (now 63%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MTSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 10FAU made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 10:05MTSU 4th & 2 at MTSU 33, down 7
    Close callPunted · 44.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:56FAU 4th & 9 at FAU 27, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.7%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:43MTSU 4th & 10 at FAU 37, down 7
    Close callPunted · 43.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.8%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    43.8%−<0.1
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    43.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:48FAU 4th & 2 at MTSU 16, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.2%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    57.7%−0.5
    81% to make
    Punt
    54.8%−3.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:22MTSU 4th & 9 at FAU 29, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.3%−0.4
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.7%
    58% to make
    Punt
    33.9%−2.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:22FAU 4th & 10 at MTSU 25, up 14
    Close callWent for it · 65.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.9%−0.6
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    65.5%
    66% to make
    Punt
    60.7%−4.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:00MTSU 4th & 7 at FAU 15, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.1%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.4%
    83% to make
    Punt
    26.9%−3.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:23FAU 4th & 17 at FAU 34, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.0%−2.0
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 14:23FAU 4th & 10 at MTSU 37, up 11
    Close callPunted · 68.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.7%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    68.6%−0.1
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    68.5%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:15MTSU 4th & 7 at MTSU 7, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.1%−0.9
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:00FAU 4th & 9 at MTSU 26, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.1%−0.9
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.0%
    64% to make
    Punt
    67.0%−6.0
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:57MTSU 4th & 22 at MTSU 35, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.8%−2.8
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.6%
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:26FAU 4th & 5 at FAU 21, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.5%−1.8
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 15:00FAU 4th & 12 at FAU 47, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.5%−1.9
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.5%
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:05MTSU 4th & 5 at MTSU 39, down 7
    Close callPunted · 27.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.4%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.0%−0.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:47FAU 4th & 1 at FAU 46, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 79.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    79.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    75.9%−3.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 7:09MTSU 4th & 9 at FAU 45, down 7
    Close callPunted · 25.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.7%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    20.8%−1.9
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    22.3%−0.4
    average punt
  18. Q4 6:19FAU 4th & 17 at FAU 8, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.3%−5.5
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.8%
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:55MTSU 4th & 2 at FAU 17, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.9%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    12.5%−7.4
    80% to make
    Punt
    8.3%−11.6
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:38MTSU 4th & 1 at FAU 1, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.6%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    11.7%−21.9
    94% to make
    Punt
    8.4%−25.2
    average punt
  21. Q4 0:38FAU 4th & 5 at FAU 30, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.0%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    20.8%−1.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MTSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3FAU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 10:05FAU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:21FAU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:12FAU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:23MTSU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:02MTSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 0:38MTSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.8%−7.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
FAUDrive 1TD
17 plays · 78 yds · 4:5555% → 56%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
44.8%
Devin Singletary run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+21
44.8%
Devin Singletary run for 6 yds to the FlAtl 32 for a 1ST down MIDDLE TENN Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Malik Manciel) to the FlAtl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
44.8%
Devin Singletary run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 49Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 49
0
44.8%
Devin Singletary run for no gain to the FlAtl 49Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 49
-5
44.8%
FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, false start (BJ Etienne) to the FlAtl 44Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 44
+15
44.8%
Devin Singletary run for 15 yds to the MTnSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
44.8%
Devin Singletary run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 36Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+3
44.8%
Kerrith Whyte Jr. run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 33Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 33
+2
44.8%
Chris Robison pass complete to Willie Wright for 2 yds to the MTnSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
44.8%
Chris Robison pass incomplete to Tavaris HarrisonSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+16
44.8%
Chris Robison run for 16 yds to the MTnSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+6
44.8%
Chris Robison pass complete to Harrison Bryant for 6 yds to the MTnSt 9Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 9
+3
44.8%
Devin Singletary run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 6Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 6
+4
44.8%
Chris Robison run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 4 for a 1ST down MIDDLE TENN Penalty, face mask (2 yards) (Rosheem Collins) to the MTnSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
44.8%
Devin Singletary run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 1Similar
Q1 10:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
43.6%
Devin Singletary run for 1 yd for a TD (Vladimir Rivas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q1 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
44.3%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Tavonn SalterSimilar
Q1 10:05
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
44.2%
Brent Stockstill run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 28Similar
Q1 10:05
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+5
44.1%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Tavonn Salter for 5 yds to the MTnSt 33Similar
Q1 10:05
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
44.1%
Matt Bonadies punt for 41 yds, downed at the FlAtl 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0057% → 56%
Q1 8:56
1ST & 10
OPP 0
0
43.2%
ROBISON, Chris pass complete to WRIGHT, Willie for 3 yards to the FAU29 (THOMAS, DQ), PENALTY MT illegal participation off-setting, PENALTY FAU illegal participation off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
43.8%
Devin Singletary run for no gain to the FlAtl 26Similar
Q1 8:56
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+1
43.9%
Devin Singletary run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 27Similar
Q1 8:56
3RD & 9
OWN 27
0
44.0%
Chris Robison pass incomplete to Harrison Bryant, broken up by Jovante MoffattSimilar
Q1 8:56
4TH & 9
OWN 27
0
44.2%
Sebastian Riella punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Ty Lee at the MTnSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 32 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q1 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
43.9%
Brad Anderson run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 35Similar
Q1 7:43
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+7
44.1%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Tavonn Salter for 7 yds to the MTnSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
44.3%
Brent Stockstill run for 7 yds to the MTnSt 49Similar
Q1 7:43
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+4
44.5%
Tavares Thomas run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+10
44.6%
Brent Stockstill run for 10 yds to the FlAtl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
44.6%
Tavares Thomas run for no gain to the FlAtl 37Similar
Q1 7:43
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
44.6%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Brad AndersonSimilar
Q1 7:43
3RD & 10
OPP 37
0
44.4%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Gatlin Casey, broken up by James PierreSimilar
Q1 7:43
4TH & 10
OPP 37
0
43.7%
Matt Bonadies punt for 32 yds, downed at the FlAtl 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 5TD
12 plays · 95 yds · 3:3757% → 64%
Q1 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+8
43.3%
Chris Robison pass complete to Harrison Bryant for 8 yds to the FlAtl 13Similar
Q1 4:58
2ND & 2
OWN 13
+3
43.1%
Devin Singletary run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+45
43.1%
Chris Robison pass complete to Jovon Durante for 45 yds to the MTnSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:58
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
42.2%
Kerrith Whyte Jr. run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 36Similar
Q1 4:58
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+12
42.1%
Chris Robison pass complete to Tavaris Harrison for 12 yds to the MTnSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:58
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+7
42.0%
Devin Singletary run for 7 yds to the MTnSt 17Similar
Q1 4:58
2ND & 3
OPP 17
+2
42.0%
Devin Singletary run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 15Similar
Q1 4:58
3RD & 1
OPP 15
-1
42.2%
Devin Singletary run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 16Similar
Q1 1:48
4TH & 2
OPP 16
+6
40.9%
Chris Robison pass complete to Willie Wright for 6 yds to the MTnSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:48
1ST & 10
OPP 0
0
40.2%
ROBISON, Chris pass incomplete to BRYANT, Harriso, PENALTY MT illegal participation off-setting, PENALTY FAU illegal formation off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
35.6%
Devin Singletary run for 10 yds for a TD (Vladimir Rivas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 6MISSED FG
11 plays · 46 yds · 2:5937% → 36%
Q1 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
36.8%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Brad Anderson for 15 yds to the MTnSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:21
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
37.5%
Brad Anderson run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 43Similar
Q1 1:21
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+1
37.7%
Brad Anderson run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 44Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+10
36.8%
Brent Stockstill run for 10 yds to the FlAtl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
37.3%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Patrick SmithSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+16
37.2%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Patrick Smith for 16 yds to the FlAtl 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
37.6%
Tavares Thomas run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 29Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 29
0
37.5%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Tavonn SalterSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 29
0
37.2%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Jimmy MarshallSimilar
Q2 13:22
4TH & 9
OPP 29
+46
35.8%
Crews Holt 46 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Hunter SnyderSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 7DOWNS
9 plays · 46 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q2 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+13
34.0%
Kerrith Whyte Jr. run for 13 yds to the FlAtl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
33.4%
Chris Robison pass complete to John Raine for 2 yds to the FlAtl 44Similar
Q2 13:22
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+18
33.4%
Kerrith Whyte Jr. run for 18 yds to the MTnSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
33.3%
Chris Robison pass complete to Jovon Durante for 9 yds to the MTnSt 29Similar
Q2 13:22
2ND & 1
OPP 29
+4
33.2%
Devin Singletary run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-2
33.2%
Chris Robison run for a loss of 2 yards to the MTnSt 27Similar
Q2 13:22
2ND & 12
OPP 27
0
33.4%
Chris Robison pass incomplete to Devin SingletarySimilar
Q2 13:22
3RD & 12
OPP 27
+2
33.6%
Devin Singletary run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 25Similar
Q2 13:22
4TH & 10
OPP 25
0
34.1%
Jake Stoshak pass incomplete to Harrison BryantSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 8FG
12 plays · 60 yds · 5:0332% → 34%
Q2 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
32.1%
Brad Anderson run for no gain to the MTnSt 25Similar
Q2 10:03
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
32.0%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Brad Anderson for 10 yds to the MTnSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+19
32.4%
Tavares Thomas run for 19 yds to the FlAtl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:03
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
33.7%
Tavares Thomas run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 43Similar
Q2 10:03
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+6
33.6%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Tavonn Salter for 6 yds to the FlAtl 37Similar
Q2 10:03
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+3
33.6%
Brad Anderson run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:03
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
34.1%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Brad Anderson for 8 yds to the FlAtl 26Similar
Q2 10:03
2ND & 2
OPP 26
+8
34.1%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Luke Shiflett for 8 yds to the FlAtl 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:03
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-1
34.1%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Tavares Thomas for a loss of 1 yard to the FlAtl 19Similar
Q2 10:03
2ND & 11
OPP 19
+4
34.1%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ty Lee for 4 yds to the FlAtl 15Similar
Q2 10:03
3RD & 7
OPP 15
0
33.7%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Brad AndersonSimilar
Q2 5:00
4TH & 7
OPP 15
+33
34.1%
Crews Holt 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 9TD
8 plays · 74 yds · 2:4866% → 81%
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+11
33.6%
Chris Robison pass complete to John Raine for 11 yds to the FlAtl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
33.0%
Devin Singletary run for 9 yds to the FlAtl 46Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 1
OWN 46
0
32.3%
Devin Singletary run for no gain to the FlAtl 46Similar
Q2 5:00
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+1
32.9%
Kerrith Whyte Jr. run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
32.4%
Devin Singletary run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 7
50
+5
32.5%
Kerrith Whyte Jr. run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 45Similar
Q2 2:12
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+45
19.1%
Chris Robison run for 45 yds for a TD (Vladimir Rivas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 10TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 0:4923% → 35%
Q2 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+49
22.5%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Patrick Smith for 49 yds to the FlAtl 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:12
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+15
25.1%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ty Lee for 15 yds to the FlAtl 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
25.7%
Tavares Thomas run for no gain to the FlAtl 1Similar
Q2 1:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
25.1%
Tavares Thomas run for no gain to the FlAtl 1Similar
Q2 1:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
35.0%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Tavares Thomas for 1 yd for a TD (Crews Holt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 9 yds · 0:0068% → 67%
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
32.1%
Chris Robison pass incomplete to Jovon DuranteSimilar
Q2 1:23
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+16
32.3%
Chris Robison pass complete to Tavaris Harrison for 16 yds to the FlAtl 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
30.9%
Chris Robison run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 42Similar
Q2 1:23
2ND & 9
OWN 42
-5
31.0%
FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, false start (BJ Etienne) to the FlAtl 37Similar
Q2 1:23
2ND & 14
OWN 37
0
32.2%
Chris Robison pass incomplete to Devin SingletarySimilar
Q2 1:23
3RD & 14
OWN 37
+2
32.4%
Devin Singletary run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 39Similar
Q2 1:23
4TH & 12
OWN 39
-5
32.7%
FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the FlAtl 34Similar
Q2 1:23
4TH & 17
OWN 34
0
33.4%
Sebastian Riella punt for 32 yds, downed at the MTnSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 12MISSED FG
7 plays · 36 yds · 0:3232% → 35%
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
32.4%
Brent Stockstill run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 39Similar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+17
33.5%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Patrick Smith for 17 yds to the FlAtl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
34.5%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Gatlin Casey for 6 yds to the FlAtl 38Similar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+8
34.6%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Tavonn Salter for 8 yds to the FlAtl 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+47
35.4%
Crews Holt 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 13INT
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
30.7%
Brent Stockstill run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+5
30.7%
Brent Stockstill pass intercepted Rashad Smith return for 5 yds to the MTnSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0071% → 69%
Q3 14:23
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
29.3%
Devin Singletary run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 32Similar
Q3 14:23
2ND & 5
OPP 32
-1
29.1%
Devin Singletary run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 33Similar
Q3 14:23
3RD & 6
OPP 33
+1
29.7%
Devin Singletary run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 32Similar
Q3 14:23
4TH & 5
OPP 32
-5
30.7%
FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, false start (Devin Singletary) to the MTnSt 37Similar
Q3 14:23
4TH & 10
OPP 37
0
30.6%
Sebastian Riella punt for 33 yds, downed at the MTnSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0029% → 27%
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 4
-2
28.9%
Tavares Thomas run for a loss of 2 yards to the MTnSt 2Similar
Q3 12:15
2ND & 12
OWN 2
0
28.8%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Tavonn SalterSimilar
Q3 12:15
3RD & 12
OWN 2
+5
27.8%
Tavares Thomas run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 7Similar
Q3 12:15
4TH & 7
OWN 7
0
27.3%
Matt Bonadies punt for 20 yds, downed at the MTnSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 16FG
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:4874% → 81%
Q3 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
26.1%
Chris Robison pass complete to John Raine for 1 yd to the MTnSt 26Similar
Q3 10:48
2ND & 9
OPP 26
-1
26.2%
Chris Robison pass complete to Jovon Durante for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 27Similar
Q3 10:48
3RD & 10
OPP 27
+1
26.8%
Chris Robison pass complete to Willie Wright for 1 yd to the MTnSt 26Similar
Q3 9:00
4TH & 9
OPP 26
+44
19.4%
Vladimir Rivas 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 17FUMBLE
6 plays · 35 yds · 0:0021% → 23%
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
21.1%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ty Lee for 3 yds to the MTnSt 28Similar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
21.2%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Patrick Smith for 8 yds to the MTnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
21.9%
Brad Anderson run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 40Similar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+10
22.5%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ty Lee for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
50
+8
23.3%
Brent Stockstill run for 8 yds to the FlAtl 40 Brent Stockstill fumbled, forced by James Pierre, recovered by FlAtl Ernest BagnerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 18FUMBLE
5 plays · 27 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q3 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
16.9%
Devin Singletary run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 42Similar
Q3 7:27
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+24
16.9%
Chris Robison pass complete to Willie Wright for 24 yds to the MTnSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:27
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
16.4%
Devin Singletary run for 7 yds to the MTnSt 27Similar
Q3 7:27
2ND & 3
OPP 27
0
16.3%
Devin Singletary run for no gain to the MTnSt 27Similar
Q3 7:27
3RD & 3
OPP 27
-3
16.6%
Chris Robison run for a loss of 3 yards to the MTnSt 33 Chris Robison fumbled, recovered by MTnSt Chris StampsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 2 yds · 0:0019% → 18%
Q3 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
19.1%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Tavonn Salter, broken up by Shelton LewisSimilar
Q3 5:57
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+7
18.9%
Brad Anderson run for 7 yds to the MTnSt 40Similar
Q3 5:57
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+7
20.0%
Brent Stockstill run for 7 yds to the MTnSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-9
20.9%
Brent Stockstill run for a loss of 9 yards to the MTnSt 39 Brent Stockstill fumbled, recovered by MTnSt Tavares ThomasSimilar
Q3 5:57
2ND & 18
OWN 39
-5
19.0%
Brent Stockstill sacked by William Davis for a loss of 5 yards to the MTnSt 34Similar
Q3 5:57
3RD & 23
OWN 34
+1
18.1%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Brad Anderson for 1 yd to the MTnSt 35Similar
Q3 5:57
4TH & 22
OWN 35
0
18.2%
Matt Bonadies punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Dante Cousart at the FlAtl 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0085% → 84%
Q3 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
14.9%
Kerrith Whyte Jr. run for 5 yds to the FlAtl 21Similar
Q3 3:26
2ND & 5
OWN 21
0
14.9%
Chris Robison run for no gain to the FlAtl 21Similar
Q3 3:26
3RD & 5
OWN 21
0
15.3%
Chris Robison pass incomplete to Tavaris HarrisonSimilar
Q3 3:26
4TH & 5
OWN 21
0
15.8%
Sebastian Riella punt for 19 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FlAtl 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 21TD
3 plays · 40 yds · 1:0918% → 39%
Q3 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-1
18.2%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Patrick Smith for a loss of 1 yard to the FlAtl 41Similar
Q3 2:11
2ND & 11
OPP 41
+12
17.9%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ty Lee for 12 yds to the FlAtl 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
38.9%
Brad Anderson run for 29 yds for a TD (Crews Holt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 22PUNT
11 plays · 22 yds · 1:0272% → 71%
Q3 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
28.5%
Jovon Durante run for 13 yds to the FlAtl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
26.5%
FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the FlAtl 33Similar
Q3 1:02
1ST & 15
OWN 33
+7
28.9%
Devin Singletary run for 7 yds to the FlAtl 40Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+2
25.5%
Devin Singletary run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 42Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+7
25.9%
Chris Robison pass complete to Harrison Bryant for 7 yds to the FlAtl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-15
25.1%
DURANTE, Jovon pass complete to COUSART, Dante for 31 yards to the MT20 (BROWN, Justin), PENALTY FAU pass interference 15 yards to the FAU34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 25
OWN 34
0
27.9%
Chris Robison pass complete to Devin Singletary for no gain to the FlAtl 34Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 25
OWN 34
+13
28.2%
Willie Wright run for 13 yds to the FlAtl 47Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 47
0
26.7%
Chris Robison pass incomplete to Willie WrightSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 12
OWN 47
0
28.7%
Sebastian Riella punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Ty Lee at the MTnSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 24 yds · 0:0028% → 27%
Q4 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
27.8%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Ty LeeSimilar
Q4 12:05
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+19
27.7%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Brad Anderson for 19 yds to the MTnSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
28.8%
Brad Anderson run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 36Similar
Q4 12:05
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+4
29.2%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Tavares Thomas for 4 yds to the MTnSt 40Similar
Q4 12:05
3RD & 4
OWN 40
-1
29.8%
Tavares Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the MTnSt 39Similar
Q4 12:05
4TH & 5
OWN 39
0
27.3%
Matt Bonadies punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Dante Cousart at the FlAtl 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 24DOWNS
6 plays · 33 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q4 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+7
21.4%
Kerrith Whyte Jr. run for 7 yds to the FlAtl 20Similar
Q4 9:47
2ND & 3
OWN 20
+17
20.5%
Kerrith Whyte Jr. run for 17 yds to the FlAtl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
19.7%
Devin Singletary run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 39Similar
Q4 9:47
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+4
18.7%
Devin Singletary run for 4 yds to the FlAtl 43Similar
Q4 9:47
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+3
19.0%
Chris Robison run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 46Similar
Q4 9:47
4TH & 1
OWN 46
0
20.7%
Chris Robison run for no gain to the FlAtl 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0030% → 25%
Q4 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
30.1%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Gatlin Casey, broken up by Chris RobisonSimilar
Q4 7:09
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+1
29.4%
Brent Stockstill run for 1 yd to the FlAtl 45Similar
Q4 7:09
3RD & 9
OPP 45
0
28.2%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Tavonn SalterSimilar
Q4 7:09
4TH & 9
OPP 45
0
24.7%
Matt Bonadies punt for 30 yds, downed at the FlAtl 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 0:0081% → 79%
Q4 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
18.7%
Devin Singletary run for 3 yds to the FlAtl 18Similar
Q4 6:19
2ND & 7
OWN 18
-3
18.7%
Willie Wright run for a loss of 3 yards to the FlAtl 15Similar
Q4 6:19
3RD & 10
OWN 15
-5
19.9%
FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, false start (BJ Etienne) to the FlAtl 10Similar
Q4 6:19
3RD & 15
OWN 10
-2
19.9%
Devin Singletary run for 7 yds to the FlAtl 17 FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Devin Singletary) to the FlAtl 8Similar
Q4 6:19
4TH & 17
OWN 8
0
21.2%
Sebastian Riella punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Ty Lee at the FlAtl 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 27TD
12 plays · 43 yds · 3:0727% → 63%
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+18
27.1%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ty Lee for 18 yds to the FlAtl 25 for a 1ST down FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-2
29.3%
Brad Anderson run for a loss of 2 yards to the FlAtl 27Similar
Q4 3:45
2ND & 12
OPP 27
+2
27.0%
Brent Stockstill run for 2 yds to the FlAtl 25Similar
Q4 3:45
3RD & 10
OPP 25
+8
25.7%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Tavonn Salter for 8 yds to the FlAtl 17Similar
Q4 1:55
4TH & 2
OPP 17
+7
21.3%
Brent Stockstill run for 7 yds to the FlAtl 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
27.1%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Tavares Thomas for 3 yds to the FlAtl 7Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
27.1%
Brent Stockstill run for 6 yds to the FlAtl 1Similar
Q4 0:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
22.5%
Tavares Thomas run for no gain to the FlAtl 1Similar
Q4 0:38
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
62.9%
Tavares Thomas run for 1 yd for a TD (Brent Stockstill pass to Gatlin Casey for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 28INT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0030% → 27%
Q4 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
70.1%
Chris Robison pass complete to Harrison Bryant for 5 yds to the FlAtl 30Similar
Q4 0:38
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
68.0%
Chris Robison pass incomplete to Harrison BryantSimilar
Q4 0:38
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
69.7%
Chris Robison pass incomplete to Harrison BryantSimilar
Q4 0:38
4TH & 5
OWN 30
-4
73.0%
Chris Robison pass intercepted Jovante Moffatt return for a loss of 16 yards to the MTnSt 14 MIDDLE TENN Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Jovante Moffatt) to the MTnSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:38
Tavares Thomas run for 1 yd for a TD (Brent Stockstill pass to Gatlin Casey for Two-Point Conversion)
+40.2
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+27
TD · Q3 1:02
Brad Anderson run for 29 yds for a TD (Crews Holt KICK)
+21
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com