Try the model
WKU

Western Kentucky 28 at Ball State 20

BALL
2018 · Week 4 · Sep 22, 2018 · Scheumann Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · BALL
modelBALL aheadWKU aheadconfidence bandkey playBALL scoreWKU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:59 · Alex Rinella punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Corey Lacanaria at the BALLST 16 BALL ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Christian Albright) to the BalSt 8
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+39.5+19.80−19.8−39.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 89Pregame prior+8.2Home team on offense+2.0Score differential+0.4Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:16: Gino Appleberry Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Ryan Nuss KICK) — WKU win probability +10.6 pts (now 44%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 2:53: Steven Duncan pass complete to Mik'Quan Deane for 4 yds for a TD (Ryan Nuss KICK) — WKU win probability +18.0 pts (now 53%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 8:39: Riley Neal pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 6 yds for a TD (Morgan Hagee KICK) — BALL win probability +27.9 pts (now 87%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 4:41: Steven Duncan pass complete to Mik'Quan Deane for 18 yds for a TD (Ryan Nuss KICK) — WKU win probability +35.0 pts (now 66%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:59: Joshua Samuel run for 5 yds for a TD (Ryan Nuss KICK) — WKU win probability +17.0 pts (now 97%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BALL made the numbers' call on 6 of 7WKU made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
  1. Q1 15:00WKU 4th & 5 at BALL 43, tied
    Close callPunted · 40.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.5%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    40.4%−0.1
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    40.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:38WKU 4th & 7 at BALL 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.6%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    37.3%−0.2
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    37.6%
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00BALL 4th & 8 at BALL 39, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.0%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:25WKU 4th & 4 at WKU 39, down 7
    Close callPunted · 34.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.9%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:40BALL 4th & 10 at BALL 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.4%−0.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:34BALL 4th & 4 at WKU 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.6%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.7%
    66% to make
    Punt
    55.4%−4.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:59WKU 4th & 17 at WKU 39, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.6%−2.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.6%
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:08BALL 4th & 7 at WKU 7, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.6%−0.6
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.1%
    91% to make
    Punt
    56.5%−8.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 2:45BALL 4th & 14 at WKU 44, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.0%−3.0
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    50.3%−2.6
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    53.0%
    average punt
  10. Q4 15:00WKU 4th & 8 at WKU 30, up 1
    Numbers favored punt by 2.1 ptsWent for it · 47.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.6%−2.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    49.7%
    average punt
  11. Q4 15:00WKU 4th & 9 at WKU 42, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.0%−2.9
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.9%
    average punt
  12. Q4 4:34BALL 4th & 10 at BALL 25, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.7%−2.6
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:59BALL 4th & 17 at BALL 18, down 8
    Close callWent for it · 6.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.5%−0.4
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BALL made the numbers' call on 2 of 2WKU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 6:43BALL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:16WKU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 2:53WKU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 8:39BALL Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 4:41WKU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.1%−2.3
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 0:59WKU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.3%−2.8
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WKUDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 45 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
66.0%
Joshua Samuel run for 3 yds to the WKent 15Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 15
+2
66.0%
Joshua Samuel run for 2 yds to the WKent 17Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 17
-9
66.0%
SHANLEY, Davis pass complete to FOURTENBARY, K. for 25 yards to the WKU42 (ANDERSON, Brett;WHITE, Jacob), PENALTY WKU holding (JOEST, Seth) 9 yards to the WKU8, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 8
+44
66.0%
Davis Shanley pass complete to Quin Jernighan for 29 yds to the BalSt 37 for a 1ST down BALL ST Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the BalSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
66.0%
Davis Shanley pass complete to Kyle Fourtenbary for 9 yds to the BalSt 39Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 39
-4
66.0%
Davis Shanley run for a loss of 4 yards to the BalSt 43Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 43
0
66.0%
Davis Shanley pass incomplete to Kyle FourtenbarySimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 5
OPP 43
0
66.0%
Alex Rinella punt for 43 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 2TD
15 plays · 80 yds · 5:4266% → 68%
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
65.8%
James Gilbert run for 3 yds to the BalSt 23Similar
Q1 12:25
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+1
65.8%
Riley Neal pass complete to Justin Hall for 1 yd to the BalSt 24Similar
Q1 12:25
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+7
65.7%
Riley Neal pass complete to Justin Hall for 7 yds to the BalSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-5
65.8%
BALL ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the BalSt 26Similar
Q1 12:25
1ST & 15
OWN 26
+5
65.8%
Riley Neal pass complete to Justin Hall for 5 yds to the BalSt 31Similar
Q1 12:25
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+14
65.8%
Riley Neal pass complete to Riley Miller for 14 yds to the BalSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
66.0%
James Gilbert run for 1 yd to the BalSt 46Similar
Q1 12:25
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+17
66.0%
Riley Neal pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 17 yds to the WKent 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+7
66.0%
Riley Neal pass complete to Riley Miller for 7 yds to the WKent 30Similar
Q1 8:59
2ND & 3
OPP 30
+9
66.1%
Malik Dunner run for 9 yds to the WKent 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+17
66.1%
Riley Neal pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 17 yds to the WKent 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
66.1%
Caleb Huntley run for 3 yds to the WKent 1Similar
Q1 8:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
66.1%
Caleb Huntley run for no gain to the WKent 1Similar
Q1 6:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
68.4%
Malik Dunner run for 1 yd for a TD (Morgan Hagee KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 3PUNT
15 plays · 35 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q1 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-11
67.8%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Garland LaFrance) to the WKent 10Similar
Q1 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
67.9%
Jacquez Sloan run for 3 yds to the WKent 13Similar
Q1 6:38
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+7
68.0%
Gino Appleberry Jr. run for 7 yds to the WKent 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
67.8%
Davis Shanley run for 5 yds to the WKent 25Similar
Q1 6:38
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+4
67.6%
Davis Shanley pass complete to Lucky Jackson for 4 yds to the WKent 29Similar
Q1 6:38
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+1
67.7%
Gino Appleberry Jr. run for 1 yd to the WKent 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
67.6%
Joshua Samuel run for 3 yds to the WKent 33Similar
Q1 6:38
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+9
67.5%
Davis Shanley pass complete to Mik'Quan Deane for 9 yds to the WKent 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+11
67.3%
Davis Shanley pass complete to Lucky Jackson for 11 yds to the BalSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
67.0%
Davis Shanley pass complete to Lucky Jackson for 4 yds to the BalSt 43Similar
Q1 6:38
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+4
67.0%
Davis Shanley pass complete to Mik'Quan Deane for 4 yds to the BalSt 39Similar
Q1 6:38
3RD & 2
OPP 39
-5
66.9%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, false start (Jordan Meredith) to the BalSt 44Similar
Q1 6:38
3RD & 7
OPP 44
0
67.1%
Davis Shanley pass incomplete to Quin JernighanSimilar
Q1 6:38
4TH & 7
OPP 44
0
67.6%
Alex Rinella punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Corey Lacanaria at the BalSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 1:3869% → 68%
Q1 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+1
68.5%
James Gilbert run for 1 yd to the BalSt 12Similar
Q1 1:38
2ND & 9
OWN 12
+13
68.4%
Riley Neal pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 13 yds to the BalSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
68.7%
James Gilbert run for 1 yd to the BalSt 26Similar
Q1 1:38
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+11
68.5%
Riley Neal pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 11 yds to the BalSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
69.4%
Riley Neal pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+2
69.2%
Caleb Huntley run for 2 yds to the BalSt 39Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 39
0
69.0%
Riley Neal run for no gain to the BalSt 39Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 39
0
68.3%
Patrick LeCorre punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WKent 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0032% → 31%
Q2 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
68.4%
Davis Shanley pass complete to Xavier Lane for 3 yds to the WKent 36Similar
Q2 13:25
2ND & 7
OWN 36
-8
68.2%
Davis Shanley sacked by Christian Albright for a loss of 8 yards to the WKent 39 Davis Shanley fumbled, recovered by WKent Joshua Samuel , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 13:25
3RD & 4
OWN 39
0
68.2%
Davis Shanley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:25
4TH & 4
OWN 39
0
68.9%
Alex Rinella punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Corey Lacanaria at the BalSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:0070% → 68%
Q2 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+7
69.6%
Justin Hall run for 7 yds to the BalSt 25Similar
Q2 11:40
2ND & 3
OWN 25
+10
69.9%
James Gilbert run for 10 yds to the BalSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
69.8%
James Gilbert run for 8 yds to the BalSt 43Similar
Q2 11:40
2ND & 2
OWN 43
0
71.0%
TEAM run for no gain to the BalSt 26 TEAM fumbled, recovered by BalSt Riley NealSimilar
Q2 11:40
3RD & 19
OWN 26
+9
68.8%
Riley Neal pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 9 yds to the BalSt 35Similar
Q2 11:40
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
68.4%
Patrick LeCorre punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Drell Greene at the WKent 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 7TD
9 plays · 73 yds · 3:5531% → 44%
Q2 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
69.5%
Joshua Samuel run for 4 yds to the WKent 31Similar
Q2 9:11
2ND & 6
OWN 31
+3
69.2%
Davis Shanley pass complete to Quin Jernighan for 3 yds to the WKent 34Similar
Q2 9:11
3RD & 3
OWN 34
+10
69.4%
Davis Shanley pass complete to Garland LaFrance for 10 yds to the WKent 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+41
68.4%
Davis Shanley pass complete to Lucky Jackson for 41 yds to the BalSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
66.5%
Davis Shanley run for 3 yds to the BalSt 12Similar
Q2 9:11
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+1
66.5%
Joshua Samuel run for 1 yd to the BalSt 11Similar
Q2 9:11
3RD & 6
OPP 11
+9
67.6%
Davis Shanley run for 9 yds to the BalSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
66.6%
Gino Appleberry Jr. run for 1 yd to the BalSt 1Similar
Q2 5:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
56.0%
Gino Appleberry Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Ryan Nuss KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 8FG
14 plays · 51 yds · 3:3663% → 66%
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
63.0%
Caleb Huntley run for 9 yds to the BalSt 33Similar
Q2 5:10
2ND & 1
OWN 33
+13
64.3%
Caleb Huntley run for 13 yds to the BalSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
65.3%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Justin HallSimilar
Q2 5:10
2ND & 10
OWN 46
-10
64.4%
HUNTLEY, Caleb rush for 2 yards to the BALL48 (MALONE, D.), PENALTY BALL holding (GIVAN, Nolan) 10 yards to the BALL36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:10
2ND & 20
OWN 36
-15
63.1%
NEAL, Riley pass incomplete to MILLER, Riley, QB hurry by MALONE, D., PENALTY BALL personal foul (BLACKWELL, C.) 15 yards to the BALL21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:10
2ND & 35
OWN 21
+10
62.6%
Riley Neal pass complete to Hassan Littles for 10 yds to the BalSt 31Similar
Q2 5:10
3RD & 25
OWN 31
+15
61.7%
NEAL, Riley pass incomplete to HALL, Justin, PENALTY WKU pass interference (RUFFIN, Dionte) 15 yards to the BALL46, 1ST DOWN BALL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:10
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+12
64.4%
Riley Neal pass complete to Justin Hall for 12 yds to the WKent 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+11
65.8%
James Gilbert run for 11 yds to the WKent 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
66.2%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Hassan LittlesSimilar
Q2 5:10
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+6
66.2%
Riley Neal pass complete to Justin Hall for 6 yds to the WKent 25Similar
Q2 5:10
3RD & 4
OPP 25
0
65.4%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Riley MillerSimilar
Q2 1:34
4TH & 4
OPP 25
+43
66.1%
Morgan Hagee 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 21 yds · 0:2935% → 33%
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
64.8%
Davis Shanley pass incomplete to Mik'Quan DeaneSimilar
Q2 1:28
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+28
65.1%
Davis Shanley pass complete to Kyle Fourtenbary for 28 yds to the WKent 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
62.0%
Davis Shanley pass complete to Kyle Fourtenbary for 3 yds to the WKent 49Similar
Q2 0:59
2ND & 7
OWN 49
-10
62.6%
SHANLEY, Davis pass incomplete, PENALTY WKU holding (JOEST, Seth) 10 yards to the WKU39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:59
2ND & 17
OWN 39
0
65.3%
Davis Shanley pass incomplete to Lucky JacksonSimilar
Q2 0:59
3RD & 17
OWN 39
0
66.0%
Davis Shanley pass incomplete to Joshua SamuelSimilar
Q2 0:59
4TH & 17
OWN 39
+53
67.3%
Alex Rinella punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Corey Lacanaria at the BALLST 16 BALL ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Christian Albright) to the BalSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 10END OF HALF
1 play · 6 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+6
65.2%
James Gilbert run for 6 yds to the BalSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 11FG
17 plays · 68 yds · 5:5266% → 74%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
65.9%
James Gilbert run for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 24Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+14
65.6%
Riley Neal pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 14 yds to the BalSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
67.0%
Riley Neal pass complete to Justin Hall for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+7
68.5%
Riley Neal pass complete to Justin Hall for 7 yds to the WKent 43Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 43
-2
68.7%
Caleb Huntley run for a loss of 2 yards to the WKent 45Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 45
-15
68.1%
NEAL, Riley pass complete to LITTLES, Hassan for 4 yards to the WKU41 (DARDEN, T.), PENALTY BALL pass interference (MILLER, Riley) 15 yards to the BALL40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 20
OWN 40
+28
65.1%
Riley Neal run for 28 yds to the WKent 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
69.3%
Riley Neal pass complete to Justin Hall for 4 yds to the WKent 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+6
69.3%
Caleb Huntley run for 6 yds to the WKent 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
69.3%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Yo'Heinz TylerSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 22
-3
69.2%
Justin Hall run for a loss of 3 yards to the WKent 25Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 13
OPP 25
+17
66.9%
Riley Neal pass complete to Riley Miller for 17 yds to the WKent 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
69.3%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Riley Miller, broken up by Devon KeySimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
69.3%
James Gilbert run for 1 yd to the WKent 7Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
68.3%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Malik DunnerSimilar
Q3 9:08
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
73.5%
Morgan Hagee 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 12TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 6:1529% → 53%
Q3 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
70.7%
Steven Duncan pass complete to Lucky Jackson for 5 yds to the WKent 30Similar
Q3 9:08
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-5
69.9%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, false start (Seth Joest) to the WKent 25Similar
Q3 9:08
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
70.9%
Joshua Samuel run for 3 yds to the WKent 28Similar
Q3 9:08
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+7
71.7%
Steven Duncan run for 7 yds to the WKent 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
70.0%
Steven Duncan pass complete to Lucky Jackson for 5 yds to the WKent 40Similar
Q3 9:08
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+10
68.0%
Steven Duncan run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:08
1ST & 10
50
+10
67.3%
Steven Duncan pass complete to Lucky Jackson for 10 yds to the BalSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
67.3%
Steven Duncan run for 5 yds to the BalSt 38 Steven Duncan fumbled, forced by Jaylin Thomas, recovered by WKent Tyler WittSimilar
Q3 9:08
2ND & 8
OPP 38
-5
67.3%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, false start (Jordan Meredith) to the BalSt 43Similar
Q3 9:08
2ND & 13
OPP 43
0
68.9%
Jahcour Pearson run for no gain to the BalSt 43Similar
Q3 9:08
3RD & 13
OPP 43
+27
70.2%
Steven Duncan run for 27 yds to the BalSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
65.4%
Steven Duncan pass complete to Quin Jernighan for 3 yds to the BalSt 13Similar
Q3 9:08
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+8
65.4%
Steven Duncan run for 8 yds to the BalSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
65.4%
Gino Appleberry Jr. run for 1 yd to the BalSt 4Similar
Q3 2:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
47.4%
Steven Duncan pass complete to Mik'Quan Deane for 4 yds for a TD (Ryan Nuss KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 13PUNT
9 plays · 8 yds · 0:0059% → 53%
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
59.2%
Caleb Huntley run for no gain to the BalSt 48Similar
Q3 2:45
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
58.7%
Riley Neal pass incomplete, broken up by Ta'Corian Darden BALL ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 2:45
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+12
55.2%
Riley Neal pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 12 yds to the WKent 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-10
60.0%
GILBERT, James rush for 1 yard to the WKU39 (HOLT, Ben;DARDEN, T.), PENALTY BALL holding (GIVAN, Nolan) 10 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:45
1ST & 20
50
0
56.8%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Justin Hall, broken up by Devon KeySimilar
Q3 2:45
2ND & 20
50
0
56.3%
Riley Neal pass incomplete BALL ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 2:45
3RD & 20
50
+6
54.6%
Riley Neal pass complete to Justin Hall for 6 yds to the WKent 44Similar
Q3 2:45
4TH & 14
OPP 44
0
52.7%
Patrick LeCorre punt for 41 yds, downed at the WKent 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 14PUNT
11 plays · 39 yds · 0:0947% → 47%
Q3 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+6
53.1%
Joshua Samuel run for 6 yds to the WKent 9Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 9
+6
52.0%
Joshua Samuel run for 6 yds to the WKent 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+13
51.1%
Steven Duncan pass complete to Mik'Quan Deane for 13 yds to the WKent 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
50.3%
Steven Duncan pass incomplete to Quin Jernighan, broken up by Antonio PhillipsSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+2
51.1%
Garland LaFrance run for 2 yds to the WKent 30Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 30
0
52.1%
Steven Duncan pass incomplete to Kyle FourtenbarySimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 30
+11
53.7%
Rex Henderson run for 11 yds to the WKent 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-7
47.7%
DUNCAN, Steven pass incomplete, QB hurry by ALBRIGHT, C., PENALTY WKU 1G (DUNCAN, Steven) 7 yards to the WKU34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 17
OWN 34
+8
51.2%
Joshua Samuel run for 8 yds to the WKent 42Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 42
0
49.5%
Steven Duncan pass incomplete to Lucky JacksonSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 42
0
52.9%
Alex Rinella punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Corey Lacanaria at the BalSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 15TD
9 plays · 70 yds · 3:2252% → 87%
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
51.8%
Riley Neal pass complete to Riley Miller for 6 yds to the BalSt 36Similar
Q4 12:01
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+19
55.4%
Riley Neal pass complete to Riley Miller for 19 yds to the WKent 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-8
57.3%
Malik Dunner run for 2 yds to the BalSt 43 BALL ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Nolan Givan) to the BalSt 47Similar
Q4 12:01
1ST & 18
OWN 47
+4
53.2%
Riley Neal pass complete to James Gilbert for 4 yds to the WKent 49Similar
Q4 12:01
2ND & 14
OPP 49
+5
53.7%
Riley Neal pass complete to Riley Miller for 5 yds to the WKent 44Similar
Q4 12:01
3RD & 9
OPP 44
+10
55.4%
Riley Neal pass complete to Riley Miller for 10 yds to the WKent 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+18
59.0%
Caleb Huntley run for 18 yds to the WKent 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+10
59.1%
Caleb Huntley run for 10 yds to the WKent 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
87.1%
Riley Neal pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 6 yds for a TD (Morgan Hagee KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 16TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:5824% → 66%
Q4 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
76.3%
Steven Duncan pass complete to Lucky Jackson for 11 yds to the WKent 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
74.9%
Steven Duncan run for 1 yd to the WKent 37Similar
Q4 8:39
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+9
75.1%
Steven Duncan pass complete to Jacquez Sloan for 9 yds to the WKent 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
72.7%
Joshua Samuel run for 1 yd to the WKent 47Similar
Q4 8:39
2ND & 9
OWN 47
0
73.7%
Steven Duncan pass incomplete to Jacquez Sloan, broken up by Bryce CosbySimilar
Q4 8:39
3RD & 9
OWN 47
+25
75.0%
Steven Duncan pass complete to Jacquez Sloan for 10 yds to the BALLST 43 for a 1ST down BALL ST Penalty, roughing passer (James Jennette III) to the BalSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
68.9%
Joshua Samuel run for 5 yds to the BalSt 23Similar
Q4 8:39
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+2
68.9%
Steven Duncan pass complete to Quin Jernighan for 2 yds to the BalSt 21Similar
Q4 8:39
3RD & 3
OPP 21
+3
71.0%
Gino Appleberry Jr. run for 3 yds to the BalSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
68.9%
Joshua Samuel run for no gain to the BalSt 18Similar
Q4 4:41
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+18
33.9%
Steven Duncan pass complete to Mik'Quan Deane for 18 yds for a TD (Ryan Nuss KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0049% → 44%
Q4 4:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
49.0%
Riley Neal pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:34
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
48.2%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Justin HallSimilar
Q4 4:34
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
45.8%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Riley Miller, broken up by Drell Greene BALL ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 4:34
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
43.8%
Patrick LeCorre punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Drell Greene at the WKent 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 18TD
11 plays · 70 yds · 3:0961% → 97%
Q4 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+10
39.1%
Joshua Samuel run for 10 yds to the WKent 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
36.1%
Steven Duncan pass complete to Kyle Fourtenbary for 4 yds to the WKent 44Similar
Q4 3:19
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+17
31.5%
Joshua Samuel run for 17 yds to the BalSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:19
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+15
30.4%
Joshua Samuel run for a loss of 2 yards to the BalSt 41 for a 1ST down BALL ST Penalty, personal foul (Fred Schroeder) to the BalSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+12
25.9%
Joshua Samuel run for 12 yds to the BalSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
25.9%
Joshua Samuel run for 1 yd to the BalSt 11Similar
Q4 1:48
2ND & 9
OPP 11
+6
20.0%
Joshua Samuel run for 6 yds to the BalSt 5Similar
Q4 0:59
3RD & 3
OPP 5
+5
3.0%
Joshua Samuel run for 5 yds for a TD (Ryan Nuss KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 19END OF GAME
9 plays · 42 yds · 0:544% → 7%
Q4 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
4.0%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to James GilbertSimilar
Q4 0:59
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
3.9%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Corey Lacanaria, broken up by DeAndre FarrisSimilar
Q4 0:59
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-7
3.8%
Riley Neal sacked by Jaylon George for a loss of 7 yards to the BalSt 18Similar
Q4 0:59
4TH & 17
OWN 18
+34
3.6%
Riley Neal pass complete to Riley Miller for 34 yds to the WKent 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+15
5.3%
NEAL, Riley pass incomplete to MILLER, Riley (KEY, Devon), PENALTY WKU pass interference (KEY, Devon) 15 yards to the WKU33, 1ST DOWN BALL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
7.0%
Riley Neal pass incomplete to Riley Miller, broken up by DeAndre FarrisSimilar
Q4 0:05
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
6.6%
Riley Neal pass incomplete, broken up by Spencer GaddisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:41
Steven Duncan pass complete to Mik'Quan Deane for 18 yds for a TD (Ryan Nuss KICK)
-35
TD · Q4 8:39
Riley Neal pass complete to Corey Lacanaria for 6 yds for a TD (Morgan Hagee KICK)
+27.9
TD · Q3 2:53
Steven Duncan pass complete to Mik'Quan Deane for 4 yds for a TD (Ryan Nuss KICK)
-18
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com