2018 · Week 3 · Sep 15, 2018 · FAU Stadium
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Win probability · FAU
modelFAU aheadBCU aheadconfidence bandkey playFAU scoreBCU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 13:27 · Sebastian Riella punt for 25 yds, downed at the BthCk 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 0:46: Akevious Williams pass complete to Keavon Mitchell for 6 yds for a TD (Uriel Hernandez KICK) — BCU win probability +0.8 pts (now 1%) (top driver: BCU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 9:38: Chris Robison pass complete to Jovon Durante for 10 yds for a TD (Vladimir Rivas KICK) — FAU win probability +0.6 pts (now 100%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 3:39: Akevious Williams pass complete to Jonathon Thomas for 41 yds for a TD (Uriel Hernandez KICK) — BCU win probability +0.7 pts (now 1%) (top driver: BCU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 14:47: De'Andre Johnson run for 21 yds for a TD (Jesse Williams PAT BLOCKED) — FAU win probability +0.6 pts (now 100%) (top driver: FAU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 12:01: Akevious Williams run for 4 yds for a TD (Uriel Hernandez KICK) — BCU win probability +0.6 pts (now 1%) (top driver: BCU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
FAU made the numbers' call on 8 of 9BCU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
- Q1 15:00BCU 4th & 15 at BCU 18, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snapGo for it1.1%−0.216% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.2%average punt
- Q1 13:24FAU 4th & 3 at BCU 27, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.7%52% to convertField goal98.6%−0.162% to makePunt98.3%−0.4average punt
- Q1 10:10BCU 4th & 5 at BCU 35, down 8Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.5% before the snapGo for it1.5%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.5%average punt
- Q1 8:08BCU 4th & 7 at BCU 31, down 15Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.5% before the snapGo for it1.5%−0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.6%average punt
- Q2 13:27BCU 4th & 5 at FAU 31, down 29Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.8%41% to convertField goal0.7%−<0.154% to makePunt0.7%−0.1average punt
- Q2 13:27FAU 4th & 1 at FAU 38, up 22Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.9%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt98.7%−0.1average punt
- Q2 13:27FAU 4th & 10 at FAU 40, up 22Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.8% before the snapGo for it98.7%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.8%average punt
- Q2 9:36FAU 4th & 3 at BCU 24, up 22Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.9%52% to convertField goal98.8%−0.168% to makePunt98.4%−0.4average punt
- Q2 7:13BCU 4th & 10 at BCU 25, down 29Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snapGo for it0.4%−0.128% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.5%average punt
- Q3 14:24BCU 4th & 5 at FAU 41, down 22Close callPunted · 1.4% before the snapGo for it1.4%42% to convertField goal1.2%−0.232% to makePuntTheir call1.3%−0.1average punt
- Q3 13:28FAU 4th & 4 at FAU 48, up 22Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.8%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt98.8%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 14:47FAU 4th & 3 at BCU 21, up 22Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.2%51% to convertField goal99.2%−0.174% to makePunt98.5%−0.7average punt
- Q4 12:01FAU 4th & 2 at FAU 40, up 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.3%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt99.2%−0.1average punt
- Q4 12:01FAU 4th & 1 at BCU 31, up 21Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.3%71% to convertField goal99.1%−0.254% to makePunt98.9%−0.3average punt
- Q4 2:23FAU 4th & 5 at BCU 16, up 21Close callWent for it · 99.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.4%−<0.139% to convertField goal99.4%81% to makePunt99.0%−0.4average punt
- Q4 1:23BCU 4th & 13 at BCU 21, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snapGo for it0.4%−<0.119% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FAU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7BCU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
- Q1 10:10FAU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryClose callWent for two · convertedKick98.6%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call98.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 8:08FAU Touchdown, up 14 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.6%97% to makeGo for two98.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:20FAU Touchdown, up 21 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.8%97% to makeGo for two98.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:43FAU Touchdown, up 28 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.4%97% to makeGo for two99.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:27BCU Touchdown, down 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call1.2%97% to makeGo for two1.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:13FAU Touchdown, up 28 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.7%97% to makeGo for two99.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:46BCU Touchdown, down 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call1.2%97% to makeGo for two1.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 9:38FAU Touchdown, up 28 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:39BCU Touchdown, down 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call1.0%97% to makeGo for two1.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:47FAU Touchdown, up 28 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 12:01BCU Touchdown, down 22 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.8%97% to makeGo for two0.8%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartBCUDrive 1PUNT6 plays · -5 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
99.1%
David Israel pass incomplete to Jonathon Thomas, broken up by James PierreSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 23
-5
99.1%
BETHUNE COOKMAN Penalty, false start (Dwayne Brown) to the BthCk 18Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 15
OWN 18
+4
99.1%
Javaunie Francis punt for 43 yds , Willie Wright returns for 4 yds to the FlAtl 43 Willie Wright return for no gain to the FlAtl 43 Willie Wright fumbled, recovered by FlAtl Willie WrightSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 2TD10 plays · 57 yds · 3:1499% → 99%
Q1 13:24
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+2
99.0%
Chris Robison pass complete to DeSean Holmes for 2 yds to the FlAtl 45Similar
Q1 13:24
3RD & 8
OWN 45
+21
99.0%
Chris Robison pass complete to Harrison Bryant for 21 yds to the BthCk 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:24
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+1
99.1%
Chris Robison pass complete to Willie Wright for 1 yd to the BthCk 29Similar
Q1 13:24
4TH & 3
OPP 27
+22
99.0%
Chris Robison pass complete to Harrison Bryant for 22 yds to the BthCk 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-14
99.1%
SINGLETARY, D rush for 2 yards to the BCU3 (Marquis Hendrix;Devin James), PENALTY FAU illegal block (BRYANT, Harriso) 14 yards to the BCU19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 19
+12
99.1%
Chris Robison pass complete to Jovon Durante for 12 yds to the BthCk 7Similar
Q1 10:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
98.9%
Devin Singletary run for 7 yds for a TD (Chris Robison pass to Jovon Durante for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 3PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 10:10
4TH & 5
OWN 35
+51
98.9%
Javaunie Francis punt for 48 yds , Willie Wright returns for 51 yds to the BthCk 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 4TD5 plays · 32 yds · 0:5799% → 99%
BCUDrive 5PUNT9 plays · 13 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+9
98.9%
Akevious Williams pass complete to Malique Jackson for 9 yds to the BthCk 27Similar
Q1 8:08
2ND & 1
OWN 27
-5
98.9%
BETHUNE COOKMAN Penalty, false start (Jamal Savage) to the BthCk 22Similar
Q1 8:08
3RD & 4
OWN 24
+4
98.9%
Akevious Williams pass complete to Jonathon Thomas for 4 yds to the BthCk 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:08
4TH & 7
OWN 31
0
98.9%
Javaunie Francis punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Willie Wright at the FlAtl 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 6TD10 plays · 70 yds · 3:0999% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 8TD2 plays · 9 yds · 0:2499% → 99%
BCUDrive 9TD9 plays · 74 yds · 2:161% → 1%
Q1 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-5
99.4%
Ak. Williams rush for 4 yards to the BCU30 (GILBERT, Zyon), PENALTY BCU illegal shift 5 yards to the BCU21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:43
1ST & 15
OWN 21
+15
99.4%
Ak. Williams pass incomplete to Keavon Mitchell, PENALTY FAU pass interference (BROWN, Da'Von) 15 yards to the BCU36, 1ST DOWN BCU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+13
99.4%
Akevious Williams pass complete to Jonathon Thomas for 13 yds to the BthCk 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+15
99.4%
Akevious Williams pass complete to Jonathon Thomas for 15 yds to the FlAtl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 36
+5
99.4%
Akevious Williams pass complete to Tupac Isme for 5 yds to the FlAtl 31Similar
Q2 13:27
4TH & 5
OPP 31
+31
99.0%
Akevious Williams pass complete to Jimmie Robinson for 31 yds for a TD BETHUNE COOKMAN Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the FlAtl 8 (Uriel Hernandez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 10PUNT9 plays · 11 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 11INT4 plays · 14 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 11:21
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+11
99.0%
Akevious Williams pass complete to David Israel for 11 yds to the BthCk 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
98.9%
Akevious Williams pass complete to Keavon Mitchell for 3 yds to the BthCk 49Similar
Q2 11:21
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+16
98.9%
Akevious Williams pass intercepted Rashad Smith return for 16 yds to the BthCk 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 12TD7 plays · 31 yds · 2:2399% → 100%
Q2 9:36
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
99.2%
Chris Robison pass complete to Jovon Durante for 2 yds to the BthCk 29Similar
Q2 9:36
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+6
99.2%
Chris Robison pass complete to Jovon Durante for 6 yds to the BthCk 23Similar
Q2 9:36
4TH & 3
OPP 24
+19
99.1%
Chris Robison pass complete to Harrison Bryant for 19 yds to the BthCk 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
99.2%
Chris Robison pass complete to Harrison Bryant for 2 yds to the BthCk 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 13PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q2 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.6%
Akevious Williams pass complete to Jimmie Robinson for 1 yd to the BthCk 26Similar
Q2 7:13
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
99.6%
Akevious Williams pass incomplete to Jonathon Thomas BETHUNE COOKMAN Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 7:13
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-1
99.6%
Akevious Williams pass complete to Kyeree Wallace for a loss of 1 yard to the BthCk 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 14INT7 plays · 8 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q2 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-8
99.6%
Dante Cousart run for 2 yds to the BthCk 39 FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, Offensive holding (Willie Wright) to the BthCk 49Similar
Q2 5:46
2ND & 18
OPP 49
-10
99.6%
Chris Robison pass complete to Devin Singletary for 5 yds to the FlAtl 44 FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, illegal block (Antonio Riles) to the FlAtl 41Similar
Q2 5:46
2ND & 28
OWN 41
0
99.6%
Chris Robison pass intercepted Kennedy Ndukwe return for no gain to the BthCk 41 FLA ATLANTIC Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 15TD9 plays · 73 yds · 3:040% → 1%
Q2 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
99.6%
Akevious Williams pass complete to Jonathon Thomas for 2 yds to the FlAtl 40Similar
Q2 3:50
2ND & 8
OPP 40
0
99.6%
Akevious Williams pass incomplete to Malique Jackson, broken up by Shelton LewisSimilar
Q2 3:50
3RD & 8
OPP 40
+23
99.6%
Akevious Williams pass complete to Kyeree Wallace for 23 yds to the FlAtl 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+6
99.5%
Akevious Williams pass complete to Kyeree Wallace for 6 yds to the FlAtl 11Similar
Q2 0:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
98.7%
Akevious Williams pass complete to Keavon Mitchell for 6 yds for a TD (Uriel Hernandez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 16MISSED FG11 plays · 42 yds · 0:4699% → 99%
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+18
99.2%
Chris Robison pass complete to Harrison Bryant for 18 yds to the FlAtl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
99.2%
Chris Robison pass complete to Willie Wright for 9 yds to the BthCk 45Similar
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-2
99.2%
Chris Robison sacked by Marques Ford for a loss of 2 yards to the BthCk 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 17INT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
BCUDrive 18PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:001% → 1%
FAUDrive 19TD13 plays · 89 yds · 3:5099% → 100%
Q3 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+13
99.1%
Kerrith Whyte Jr. run for 13 yds to the FlAtl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:28
4TH & 4
OWN 48
+32
99.0%
Chris Robison pass complete to Jovon Durante for 32 yds to the BthCk 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
99.9%
Chris Robison pass complete to Jovon Durante for 10 yds for a TD (Vladimir Rivas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 20TD14 plays · 94 yds · 5:590% → 1%
Q3 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+8
99.8%
Akevious Williams pass complete to Taron Mallard for 8 yds to the BthCk 14Similar
Q3 9:38
3RD & 3
OWN 38
+7
99.8%
David Israel pass complete to Jonathon Thomas for 7 yds to the BthCk 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:38
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+5
99.8%
David Israel pass complete to Kyeree Wallace for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 9:38
2ND & 13
OPP 40
-1
99.8%
David Israel sacked by Tim Bonner for a loss of 1 yard to the FlAtl 41Similar
Q3 3:39
3RD & 14
OPP 41
+41
99.2%
Akevious Williams pass complete to Jonathon Thomas for 41 yds for a TD (Uriel Hernandez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FAUDrive 21TD11 plays · 72 yds · 3:5299% → 100%
BCUDrive 22TD8 plays · 62 yds · 2:460% → 1%
FAUDrive 23DOWNS17 plays · 44 yds · 9:38100% → 100%
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-10
99.5%
SAUNDERS, Silve rush for no gain to the FAU48 (Torian Williams), PENALTY FAU holding (THOMAS, Tarrick) 10 yards to the FAU38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
99.5%
Rafe Peavey pass complete to James Brunson for no gain to the BthCk 40Similar
Q4 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
99.5%
Rafe Peavey pass complete to Dante Cousart for 1 yd to the BthCk 20Similar
Q4 2:23
4TH & 5
OPP 16
-8
99.8%
Team run for a loss of 8 yards to the BthCk 24 Team fumbled, recovered by FlAtl Rafe PeaveySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BCUDrive 24PUNT5 plays · -3 yds · 0:550% → 0%
Q4 1:23
4TH & 13
OWN 21
0
99.8%
Javaunie Francis punt for 52 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FlAtl 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:46
Akevious Williams pass complete to Keavon Mitchell for 6 yds for a TD (Uriel Hernandez KICK)
-0.8
TD · Q3 3:39
Akevious Williams pass complete to Jonathon Thomas for 41 yds for a TD (Uriel Hernandez KICK)
-0.7
TD · Q3 9:38
Chris Robison pass complete to Jovon Durante for 10 yds for a TD (Vladimir Rivas KICK)
+0.6