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ME

Maine 31 at Western Kentucky 28

WKU
2018 · Week 2 · Sep 8, 2018 · Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium
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Win probability · WKU
modelWKU aheadME aheadconfidence bandkey playWKU scoreME score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 12:10 · Alex Rinella punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Micah Wright at the Maine 46
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+33.5+16.80−16.8−33.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 150Pregame prior+5.3Home team on offense−13.5Score differential−3.7Garbage-time factor−5.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:20: Chris Ferguson pass complete to Ramon Jefferson for 51 yds for a TD MAINE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the WKent 8 (Kenny Doak KICK) — ME win probability +6.0 pts (now 19%) (top driver: ME has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:32: Chris Ferguson pass complete to Micah Wright for 32 yds for a TD (Kenny Doak KICK) — ME win probability +8.2 pts (now 25%) (top driver: ME has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:16: Chris Ferguson pass complete to Micah Wright for 15 yds for a TD (Kenny Doak KICK) — ME win probability +25.7 pts (now 63%) (top driver: ME has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 7:11: Kenny Doak 37 yd FG GOOD — ME win probability +6.6 pts (now 84%) (top driver: ME has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:00: Drew Eckels pass complete to Garland LaFrance for 75 yds for a TD (Ryan Nuss KICK) — WKU win probability +25.8 pts (now 42%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
WKU made the numbers' call on 11 of 12ME made the numbers' call on 11 of 12
  1. Q1 13:13ME 4th & 15 at ME 16, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.7%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:01ME 4th & 1 at WKU 34, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    24.5%−0.2
    47% to make
    Punt
    24.4%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:01ME 4th & 18 at WKU 39, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.0%−0.1
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    24.1%−<0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    24.1%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:46WKU 4th & 9 at ME 49, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.5%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00ME 4th & 5 at ME 31, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.5%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:40WKU 4th & 8 at WKU 34, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.1%−0.6
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:15WKU 4th & 19 at ME 40, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.1%−1.2
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    81.9%−0.3
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    82.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:33ME 4th & 14 at ME 16, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.1%−1.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.7%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:59WKU 4th & 5 at ME 42, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    85.0%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    84.3%−0.7
    30% to make
    Punt
    84.5%−0.6
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:59WKU 4th & 10 at ME 44, up 7
    Close callPunted · 76.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.4%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    76.3%−0.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    76.3%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 15:00ME 4th & 1 at ME 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    22.6%−0.9
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:29WKU 4th & 6 at WKU 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.4%−1.8
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.3%
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:59ME 4th & 10 at ME 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.9%−1.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.9%
    average punt
  14. Q3 10:05WKU 4th & 19 at WKU 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.1%−4.6
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.6%
    average punt
  15. Q3 8:15ME 4th & 8 at ME 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.8%−0.8
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.6%
    average punt
  16. Q3 8:15WKU 4th & 1 at WKU 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    62.7%−2.5
    average punt
  17. Q3 5:10WKU 4th & 16 at WKU 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.1%−5.0
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.1%
    average punt
  18. Q3 2:39ME 4th & 3 at ME 41, up 7
    Close callPunted · 62.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.4%−0.3
    average punt
  19. Q4 15:00WKU 4th & 7 at WKU 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.1%−1.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.5%
    average punt
  20. Q4 14:48ME 4th & 8 at ME 43, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.6%−1.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.1%
    average punt
  21. Q4 12:10WKU 4th & 7 at WKU 19, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.2%−0.5
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.7%
    average punt
  22. Q4 7:11ME 4th & 6 at WKU 20, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.1%−0.6
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.7%
    75% to make
    Punt
    68.4%−9.4
    average punt
  23. Q4 3:34ME 4th & 10 at WKU 46, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.1%−1.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    66.2%−4.0
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    70.2%
    average punt
  24. Q4 0:47WKU 4th & 6 at ME 31, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.1%−7.5
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.6%
    54% to make
    Punt
    14.6%−19.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WKU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4ME made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 14:42WKU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 13:17WKU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 9:57WKU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:20ME Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:32ME Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 5:16ME Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 7:00WKU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.5%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WKUDrive 1TD
2 plays · 66 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q1 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+66
75.4%
Drew Eckels pass complete to Lucky Jackson for 66 yds for a TD (Ryan Nuss KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 2INT TD
5 plays · 19 yds · 1:2525% → 24%
Q1 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
75.4%
Chris Ferguson pass complete to Drew Belcher for 16 yds to the Maine 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
75.4%
Joe Fitzpatrick run for 3 yds to the Maine 44Similar
Q1 14:42
2ND & 7
OWN 44
0
75.4%
Chris Ferguson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:17
3RD & 7
OWN 44
+45
75.9%
Chris Ferguson pass intercepted for a TD Devon Key return for 45 yds for a TD (Ryan Nuss KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q1 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-1
75.9%
Ramon Jefferson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Maine 20Similar
Q1 13:13
2ND & 11
OWN 20
-6
75.9%
Chris Ferguson sacked by DeAngelo Malone and Jeremy Darvin for a loss of 6 yards to the Maine 14Similar
Q1 13:13
3RD & 17
OWN 14
+2
76.0%
Ramon Jefferson run for 2 yds to the Maine 16Similar
Q1 13:13
4TH & 15
OWN 16
0
75.9%
David Gelb punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Roger Cray at the WKent 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 4TD
6 plays · 57 yds · 1:0077% → 79%
Q1 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
77.0%
D'Andre Ferby run for 1 yd to the WKent 44Similar
Q1 10:57
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+19
77.0%
Drew Eckels pass complete to Mik'Quan Deane for 19 yds to the Maine 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+15
77.0%
D'Andre Ferby run for 15 yds to the Maine 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-10
77.0%
ECKELS, Drew pass complete to JERNIGHAN, Quin for 19 yards to the MAINE3 (DeVaughn, Jeffr), PENALTY WKU holding 10 yards to the MAINE32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:57
1ST & 20
OPP 32
0
77.0%
Drew Eckels pass incomplete to Xavier LaneSimilar
Q1 9:57
2ND & 20
OPP 32
+32
78.6%
Drew Eckels pass complete to Lucky Jackson for 32 yds for a TD (Ryan Nuss KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 5PUNT
13 plays · 44 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q1 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+10
75.5%
Ramon Jefferson run for 10 yds to the Maine 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+8
75.4%
Ramon Jefferson run for 8 yds to the Maine 35Similar
Q1 9:01
2ND & 2
OWN 35
+22
75.0%
Ramon Jefferson run for 22 yds to the WKent 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
75.1%
Joe Fitzpatrick run for 5 yds to the WKent 38Similar
Q1 9:01
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+4
74.8%
Devin Young run for 4 yds to the WKent 34Similar
Q1 9:01
3RD & 1
OPP 34
0
74.6%
Ramon Jefferson run for no gain to the WKent 34Similar
Q1 9:01
4TH & 1
OPP 34
+3
74.7%
Chris Ferguson run for 3 yds to the WKent 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
74.7%
Chris Ferguson pass incomplete to Devin Young, broken up by Roger CraySimilar
Q1 9:01
2ND & 10
OPP 31
-5
74.7%
MAINE Penalty, false start (Devin Young) to the WKent 36Similar
Q1 9:01
2ND & 15
OPP 36
-3
75.1%
Chris Ferguson sacked by DeAngelo Malone for a loss of 3 yards to the WKent 39Similar
Q1 9:01
3RD & 18
OPP 39
0
75.3%
Chris Ferguson pass incomplete to Devin Young, broken up by Eli BrownSimilar
Q1 9:01
4TH & 18
OPP 39
0
75.3%
David Gelb punt for 30 yds, downed at the WKent 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 42 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q1 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+5
82.5%
Drew Eckels pass complete to Mik'Quan Deane for 5 yds to the WKent 14Similar
Q1 3:46
2ND & 5
OWN 14
+5
82.9%
Marquez Trigg run for 5 yds to the WKent 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+9
82.9%
Drew Eckels pass complete to Quin Jernighan for 9 yds to the WKent 28Similar
Q1 3:46
2ND & 1
OWN 28
+3
82.9%
Drew Eckels run for 3 yds to the WKent 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+19
82.9%
Drew Eckels pass complete to Quin Jernighan for 19 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:46
1ST & 10
50
+1
83.6%
D'Andre Ferby run for 1 yd to the Maine 49Similar
Q1 3:46
2ND & 9
OPP 49
0
83.5%
Drew Eckels pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:46
3RD & 9
OPP 49
0
83.2%
Drew Eckels pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:46
4TH & 9
OPP 49
0
82.5%
Alex Rinella punt for 23 yds, downed at the Maine 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:3414% → 14%
Q1 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
85.7%
Ramon Jefferson run for 5 yds to the Maine 31Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 31
0
86.0%
Chris Ferguson pass incomplete to Micah WrightSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 31
0
86.1%
Chris Ferguson pass incomplete to Micah Wright, broken up by Kyle BaileySimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 31
0
86.3%
David Gelb punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Roger Cray at the WKent 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0086% → 85%
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
86.0%
Garland LaFrance run for 1 yd to the WKent 33Similar
Q2 14:40
2ND & 9
OWN 33
0
85.9%
Drew Eckels pass incomplete to Mik'Quan DeaneSimilar
Q2 14:40
3RD & 9
OWN 33
+1
85.7%
Drew Eckels pass complete to Garland LaFrance for 1 yd to the WKent 34Similar
Q2 14:40
4TH & 8
OWN 34
0
85.4%
Alex Rinella punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Micah Wright at the Maine 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 9TD
7 plays · 83 yds · 3:0313% → 19%
Q2 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
87.1%
Chris Ferguson pass complete to Devin Young for 5 yds to the Maine 22Similar
Q2 13:23
2ND & 5
OWN 22
+16
87.1%
Ferguson, Chris pass complete to Young, Devin for loss of 5 yards to the MAINE17 (MALONE, D.), PENALTY WKU face mask (GREENE, Drell) 16 yards to the MAINE38, 1ST DOWN MAINE, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
86.9%
Joe Fitzpatrick run for 6 yds to the Maine 44Similar
Q2 13:23
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+3
86.6%
Joe Fitzpatrick run for 3 yds to the Maine 47Similar
Q2 13:23
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+2
86.6%
Joe Fitzpatrick run for 2 yds to the Maine 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
86.6%
Chris Ferguson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:20
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+51
80.6%
Chris Ferguson pass complete to Ramon Jefferson for 51 yds for a TD MAINE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the WKent 8 (Kenny Doak KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 10PUNT
11 plays · 32 yds · 0:0083% → 82%
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+13
82.5%
Garland LaFrance run for 13 yds to the WKent 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
83.1%
Joshua Samuel run for 6 yds to the WKent 47Similar
Q2 10:15
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+11
83.2%
Drew Eckels pass complete to Mik'Quan Deane for 11 yds to the Maine 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
83.3%
Drew Eckels run for 2 yds to the Maine 40Similar
Q2 10:15
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+4
83.3%
Joshua Samuel run for 4 yds to the Maine 36Similar
Q2 10:15
3RD & 4
OPP 36
+5
82.9%
Kevaris Thomas run for 5 yds to the Maine 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
83.3%
Lucky Jackson run for 1 yd to the Maine 30Similar
Q2 10:15
2ND & 9
OPP 30
0
83.3%
Drew Eckels pass incomplete to Quin JernighanSimilar
Q2 10:15
3RD & 9
OPP 30
-10
83.0%
Drew Eckels sacked by Mozai Nelson for a loss of 10 yards to the Maine 40Similar
Q2 10:15
4TH & 19
OPP 40
0
81.9%
Alex Rinella punt for 40 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q2 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
82.6%
Ramon Jefferson run for 3 yds to the Maine 23Similar
Q2 5:33
2ND & 7
OWN 23
-2
82.7%
Chris Ferguson sacked by Juwuan Jones and Julien Lewis for a loss of 2 yards to the Maine 21Similar
Q2 5:33
3RD & 9
OWN 21
-5
83.0%
MAINE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Maine 16Similar
Q2 5:33
3RD & 14
OWN 16
0
83.1%
Chris Ferguson pass incomplete to Micah WrightSimilar
Q2 5:33
4TH & 14
OWN 16
0
83.2%
David Gelb punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Roger Cray at the Maine 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 12DOWNS
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:3385% → 86%
Q2 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
84.8%
Marquez Trigg run for 1 yd to the Maine 46Similar
Q2 3:32
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+7
84.8%
Garland LaFrance run for 7 yds to the Maine 39Similar
Q2 3:32
3RD & 2
OPP 39
-3
84.3%
Garland LaFrance run for a loss of 3 yards to the Maine 42Similar
Q2 1:59
4TH & 5
OPP 42
+1
86.0%
Drew Eckels pass complete to Garland LaFrance for 1 yd to the Maine 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 13TD
4 plays · 59 yds · 0:2216% → 25%
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+32
84.4%
Chris Ferguson pass complete to Julian Dunn for 32 yds to the WKent 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-5
82.5%
MAINE Penalty, false start (Devin Young) to the WKent 32Similar
Q2 1:54
1ST & 15
OPP 32
0
83.6%
Chris Ferguson pass incomplete to Joe FitzpatrickSimilar
Q2 1:32
2ND & 15
OPP 32
+32
75.4%
Chris Ferguson pass complete to Micah Wright for 32 yds for a TD (Kenny Doak KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 26 yds · 0:2779% → 78%
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
78.5%
Drew Eckels sacked by Mozai Nelson for 0 yards to the WKent 30Similar
Q2 0:59
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+13
78.3%
Drew Eckels pass complete to Garland LaFrance for 13 yds to the WKent 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+13
79.6%
Drew Eckels pass complete to D'Andre Ferby for 13 yds to the Maine 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
80.1%
Drew Eckels pass incomplete, broken up by Alejandro OregonSimilar
Q2 0:59
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
80.0%
Drew Eckels pass incomplete to Xavier Lane, broken up by Erick RobertsonSimilar
Q2 0:59
3RD & 10
OPP 44
0
79.0%
Drew Eckels pass incomplete to Lucky JacksonSimilar
Q2 0:59
4TH & 10
OPP 44
0
77.9%
Alex Rinella punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Micah Wright at the Maine 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · 1 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+1
79.4%
Joe Fitzpatrick run for 1 yd to the Maine 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 16DOWNS
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
76.8%
Ramon Jefferson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Maine 23Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
77.0%
Chris Ferguson pass incomplete to Drew BelcherSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+11
77.9%
Chris Ferguson pass complete to Jaquan Blair for 11 yds to the Maine 34Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-3
77.1%
Drew Belcher pass complete to Jaquan Blair for a loss of 3 yards to the Maine 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 17FUMBLE TD
4 plays · -19 yds · 0:5380% → 68%
Q3 13:34
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
79.9%
Drew Eckels pass incomplete to Xavier Lane, broken up by Manny PattersonSimilar
Q3 13:34
2ND & 10
OPP 31
-7
79.8%
LAFRANCE, G. rush for 10 yards to the MAINE21 (Sheffield, Ster), PENALTY WKU holding (LANE, Xavier) 7 yards to the MAINE38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:34
2ND & 17
OPP 38
0
78.8%
Drew Eckels pass incomplete to Mik'Quan Deane, broken up by Manny PattersonSimilar
Q3 12:41
3RD & 17
OPP 38
+50
67.5%
Drew Eckels sacked by Sterling Sheffield for a loss of 7 yards Drew Eckels fumbled, recovered by Maine Deshawn Stevens , return for 0 yards , return for 50 yds (Kenny Doak KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:0067% → 65%
Q3 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
66.8%
Gino Appleberry Jr. run for 1 yd to the WKent 18Similar
Q3 12:29
2ND & 9
OWN 18
-5
66.7%
ECKELS, Drew pass complete to DEANE, Mik'Quan for 15 yards to the WKU33, PENALTY WKU ineligible downfield on pass (FOURTENBARY, K.) 5 yards to the WKU13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:29
2ND & 14
OWN 13
0
66.5%
Drew Eckels pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:29
3RD & 14
OWN 13
+8
65.1%
Drew Eckels pass complete to Xavier Lane for 8 yds to the WKent 21Similar
Q3 12:29
4TH & 6
OWN 21
+4
64.6%
Alex Rinella punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Maine 35 , Micah Wright returns for 4 yds to the Maine 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0038% → 35%
Q3 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
62.5%
Chris Ferguson pass incomplete to Micah Wright, broken up by Ta'Corian DardenSimilar
Q3 10:59
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
63.0%
Joe Fitzpatrick run for no gain to the Maine 35Similar
Q3 10:59
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
64.2%
Chris Ferguson pass incomplete to Joe Fitzpatrick, broken up by Ben HoltSimilar
Q3 10:59
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
65.1%
David Gelb punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Roger Cray at the WKent 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · -9 yds · 0:0066% → 64%
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
65.9%
Drew Eckels pass complete to Jacquez Sloan for no gain to the WKent 22Similar
Q3 10:05
2ND & 10
OWN 22
-1
65.7%
Joshua Samuel run for a loss of 1 yard to the WKent 21Similar
Q3 10:05
3RD & 11
OWN 21
-8
64.2%
Drew Eckels sacked by Deshawn Stevens and Sterling Sheffield for a loss of 8 yards to the WKent 13Similar
Q3 10:05
4TH & 19
OWN 13
0
63.5%
Alex Rinella punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Micah Wright at the Maine 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0041% → 37%
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
59.2%
Ramon Jefferson run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 8:15
2ND & 6
50
-2
58.6%
Chris Ferguson pass complete to Devin Young for a loss of 2 yards to the Maine 48Similar
Q3 8:15
3RD & 8
OWN 48
0
60.1%
Chris Ferguson pass incomplete to Devin YoungSimilar
Q3 8:15
4TH & 8
OWN 48
0
62.8%
David Gelb punt for 46 yds, downed at the WKent 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 22DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0065% → 63%
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
64.9%
Drew Eckels pass incomplete to Quin JernighanSimilar
Q3 8:15
2ND & 10
OWN 6
+8
64.8%
Drew Eckels pass complete to Quin Jernighan for 8 yds to the WKent 14Similar
Q3 8:15
3RD & 2
OWN 14
+1
63.7%
Marquez Trigg run for 1 yd to the WKent 15Similar
Q3 8:15
4TH & 1
OWN 15
0
63.0%
Marquez Trigg run for no gain to the WKent 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 23TD
1 play · 15 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q3 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
37.4%
Chris Ferguson pass complete to Micah Wright for 15 yds for a TD (Kenny Doak KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 24PUNT
8 plays · 4 yds · 0:0045% → 42%
Q3 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
45.2%
Drew Eckels pass complete to Quin Jernighan for 2 yds to the WKent 33Similar
Q3 5:10
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+5
45.1%
Drew Eckels pass complete to Quin Jernighan for 5 yds to the WKent 38Similar
Q3 5:10
3RD & 3
OWN 38
+3
46.4%
Drew Eckels pass complete to Lucky Jackson for 3 yds to the WKent 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
47.4%
Drew Eckels pass incomplete to Xavier LaneSimilar
Q3 5:10
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+4
46.1%
Garland LaFrance run for 4 yds to the WKent 45Similar
Q3 5:10
3RD & 6
OWN 45
-10
46.4%
Drew Eckels sacked by Jamehl Wiley for a loss of 10 yards to the WKent 35Similar
Q3 5:10
4TH & 16
OWN 35
0
42.1%
Alex Rinella punt for 31 yds, downed at the Maine 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q3 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-10
36.7%
Jefferson, Ramo rush for 4 yards to the MAINE38 (WHYTE, Masai), PENALTY MAINE holding 10 yards to the MAINE24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:39
1ST & 20
OWN 24
+7
38.4%
Ramon Jefferson run for 7 yds to the Maine 31Similar
Q3 2:39
2ND & 13
OWN 31
+4
38.5%
Joe Fitzpatrick run for 4 yds to the Maine 35Similar
Q3 2:39
3RD & 9
OWN 35
+6
38.4%
Chris Ferguson run for 6 yds to the Maine 41Similar
Q3 2:39
4TH & 3
OWN 41
+2
37.4%
David Gelb punt for 31 yds , Roger Cray returns for 2 yds to the WKent 43 MAINE Penalty, Defensive holding (Sterling Sheffield) to the WKent 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:2540% → 36%
Q3 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
40.3%
Drew Eckels pass incomplete to Quin JernighanSimilar
Q3 0:25
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+3
38.9%
Garland LaFrance run for 3 yds to the WKent 43Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 43
0
37.8%
Drew Eckels pass incomplete to Lucky JacksonSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 43
0
36.1%
Alex Rinella punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Micah Wright at the Maine 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 27PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
34.8%
Joe Fitzpatrick run for 5 yds to the Maine 26Similar
Q4 14:48
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+2
33.7%
Joe Fitzpatrick run for 2 yds to the Maine 28Similar
Q4 14:48
3RD & 3
OWN 28
+13
34.3%
Chris Ferguson pass complete to Drew Belcher for 13 yds to the Maine 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
32.1%
Ramon Jefferson run for 2 yds to the Maine 43Similar
Q4 14:48
2ND & 8
OWN 43
0
32.1%
Chris Ferguson pass incomplete to Julian DunnSimilar
Q4 14:48
3RD & 8
OWN 43
0
32.8%
Chris Ferguson pass incomplete to Devin Young, broken up by Masai WhyteSimilar
Q4 14:48
4TH & 8
OWN 43
0
35.0%
David Gelb punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Roger Cray at the WKent 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 28PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0034% → 31%
Q4 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+6
33.8%
Drew Eckels pass complete to Mik'Quan Deane for 6 yds to the WKent 22Similar
Q4 12:10
2ND & 4
OWN 22
-7
34.4%
Drew Eckels sacked by Deshawn Stevens for a loss of 7 yards to the WKent 15Similar
Q4 12:10
3RD & 11
OWN 15
+4
31.9%
Drew Eckels pass complete to Mik'Quan Deane for 4 yds to the WKent 19Similar
Q4 12:10
4TH & 7
OWN 19
0
30.9%
Alex Rinella punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Micah Wright at the Maine 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 29FG
7 plays · 34 yds · 3:1077% → 84%
Q4 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
23.5%
Joe Fitzpatrick run for 7 yds to the WKent 47Similar
Q4 10:21
2ND & 3
OPP 47
+1
22.4%
Joe Fitzpatrick run for 1 yd to the WKent 46Similar
Q4 10:21
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+22
23.1%
Joe Fitzpatrick run for 22 yds to the WKent 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
21.8%
Joe Fitzpatrick run for no gain to the WKent 24Similar
Q4 10:21
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+4
22.1%
Joe Fitzpatrick run for 4 yds to the WKent 20Similar
Q4 10:21
3RD & 6
OPP 20
0
22.7%
Chris Ferguson pass incomplete to Jaquan Blair, broken up by DeAndre FarrisSimilar
Q4 7:11
4TH & 6
OPP 20
+37
16.0%
Kenny Doak 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 30TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
41.5%
Drew Eckels pass complete to Garland LaFrance for 75 yds for a TD (Ryan Nuss KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 31PUNT
15 plays · 29 yds · 3:2666% → 75%
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
34.4%
Joe Fitzpatrick run for 4 yds to the Maine 29Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
33.3%
Joe Fitzpatrick run for 5 yds to the Maine 34Similar
Q4 7:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
33.3%
Joe Fitzpatrick run for 3 yds to the Maine 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
32.8%
Joe Fitzpatrick run for 2 yds to the Maine 39Similar
Q4 4:27
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+1
26.6%
Joe Fitzpatrick run for 1 yd to the Maine 40Similar
Q4 4:20
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+14
26.8%
Chris Ferguson pass complete to Julian Dunn for 14 yds to the WKent 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
23.9%
Joe Fitzpatrick run for 2 yds to the WKent 44Similar
Q4 3:40
2ND & 8
OPP 44
-2
20.3%
Chris Ferguson pass complete to Drew Belcher for a loss of 2 yards to the WKent 46Similar
Q4 3:34
3RD & 10
OPP 46
0
21.9%
Chris Ferguson pass incomplete to Drew BelcherSimilar
Q4 3:34
4TH & 10
OPP 46
0
25.5%
David Gelb punt for 43 yds, downed at the WKent 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 32MISSED FG
12 plays · 66 yds · 2:3136% → 23%
Q4 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+9
36.1%
Drew Eckels pass complete to Jacquez Sloan for 9 yds to the WKent 12Similar
Q4 3:18
2ND & 1
OWN 12
+8
36.9%
Garland LaFrance run for 8 yds to the WKent 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
37.7%
Drew Eckels run for 7 yds to the WKent 27Similar
Q4 3:18
2ND & 3
OWN 27
0
38.8%
Drew Eckels pass incomplete to Xavier LaneSimilar
Q4 3:18
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+14
36.3%
Drew Eckels pass complete to Lucky Jackson for 14 yds to the WKent 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
41.9%
Drew Eckels pass incomplete to Quin JernighanSimilar
Q4 3:18
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+24
39.9%
Drew Eckels pass complete to Kyle Fourtenbary for 24 yds to the Maine 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-2
37.3%
Drew Eckels run for a loss of 2 yards to the Maine 37Similar
Q4 1:44
2ND & 12
OPP 37
0
31.3%
Drew Eckels pass incomplete to Xavier LaneSimilar
Q4 1:44
3RD & 12
OPP 37
+6
29.1%
Drew Eckels run for 6 yds to the Maine 31Similar
Q4 0:47
4TH & 6
OPP 31
+48
23.2%
Ryan Nuss 48 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Jordan SwannSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MEDrive 33END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q4 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-1
6.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Maine 45Similar
Q4 0:47
2ND & 11
OWN 45
-1
6.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Maine 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:00
Drew Eckels pass complete to Garland LaFrance for 75 yds for a TD (Ryan Nuss KICK)
+25.8
TD · Q3 5:16
Chris Ferguson pass complete to Micah Wright for 15 yds for a TD (Kenny Doak KICK)
-25.7
TD · Q2 1:32
Chris Ferguson pass complete to Micah Wright for 32 yds for a TD (Kenny Doak KICK)
-8.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com