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UTM

UT Martin 37 at Middle Tennessee 61

MTSU
2018 · Week 2 · Sep 8, 2018 · Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium
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Win probability · MTSU
modelMTSU aheadUTM aheadconfidence bandkey playMTSU scoreUTM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-2.3MTSU 83.2%Ryan Courtright 44 yd FG GOODAWAY 17 - HOME 20 · Q2 2:35
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 2:35 · Ryan Courtright 44 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+41.0+20.50−20.5−41.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 98Pregame prior+25.7Home team on offense+1.2Score differential+0.3Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:32: Brent Stockstill pass complete to Patrick Smith for 5 yds for a TD (Crews Holt PAT MISSED) — MTSU win probability +4.1 pts (now 89%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 7:32: Chaton Mobley run for 7 yds for a TD (Crews Holt KICK) — MTSU win probability +5.0 pts (now 95%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:39: Dresser Winn pass complete to LaDarius Galloway for 51 yds for a TD (Ryan Courtright KICK) — UTM win probability +4.0 pts (now 6%) (top driver: UTM has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:32: Jaimiee Bowe run for 37 yds for a TD (Ryan Courtright KICK) — UTM win probability +6.3 pts (now 10%) (top driver: UTM has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:28: Brent Stockstill pass complete to Patrick Smith for 26 yds for a TD (Crews Holt KICK) — MTSU win probability +7.0 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MTSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MTSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6UTM made the numbers' call on 10 of 10
  1. Q1 12:10UTM 4th & 12 at UTM 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.6%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:40UTM 4th & 15 at UTM 3, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.4%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:52MTSU 4th & 23 at MTSU 46, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.2%−0.5
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:21UTM 4th & 5 at UTM 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.3%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.4%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:56MTSU 4th & 13 at MTSU 22, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.4%−0.6
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:07MTSU 4th & 6 at MTSU 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.2%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:40UTM 4th & 7 at UTM 4, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.3%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:46UTM 4th & 8 at UTM 48, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.0%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:17MTSU 4th & 2 at MTSU 23, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.7%−<0.1
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.7%
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:35UTM 4th & 7 at MTSU 27, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 17.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.8%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.1%
    62% to make
    Punt
    14.2%−2.8
    average punt
  11. Q3 15:00MTSU 4th & 15 at MTSU 20, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.1%−1.6
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:29UTM 4th & 18 at MTSU 46, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.4%−1.5
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    12.7%−1.2
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    13.9%
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:06UTM 4th & 11 at UTM 24, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.0%−0.9
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:32MTSU 4th & 1 at UTM 27, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    88.4%−1.4
    62% to make
    Punt
    85.1%−4.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:27UTM 4th & 5 at MTSU 5, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.9%
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    2.3%−0.6
    92% to make
    Punt
    1.1%−1.8
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:27UTM 4th & 23 at UTM 41, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−0.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MTSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8UTM made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 13:44UTM Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 12:10MTSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 8:40MTSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 13:07UTM Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 9:46MTSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    85.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:32MTSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    87.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 7:32MTSU Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 4:39UTM Touchdown, down 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 2:13MTSU Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 11:40UTM Touchdown, down 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    3.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 9:32UTM Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    8.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.1%−0.6
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 6:28MTSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 3:27MTSU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UTMDrive 1TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:169% → 10%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
90.8%
LaDarius Galloway run for 20 yds to the TnMar 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
90.8%
LaDarius Galloway run for 2 yds to the TnMar 47Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+33
90.8%
Dresser Winn pass complete to Jaylon Moore for 33 yds to the MTnSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
90.8%
Dresser Winn pass complete to Devonte Howard for 4 yds to the MTnSt 16Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 16
0
90.8%
Dresser Winn pass incomplete to Devonte HowardSimilar
Q1 13:44
3RD & 6
OPP 16
+16
90.3%
Dresser Winn pass complete to Devonte Howard for 16 yds for a TD (Ryan Courtright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 2TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:3490% → 90%
Q1 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
90.3%
Chaton Mobley run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 27Similar
Q1 13:44
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
90.3%
Brent Stockstill pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:44
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+15
90.3%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Patrick Smith for 15 yds to the MTnSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
90.3%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ty Lee for 2 yds to the MTnSt 44Similar
Q1 12:10
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+56
90.1%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to CJ Windham for 56 yds for a TD (Crews Holt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
90.0%
Dresser Winn run for 2 yds to the TnMar 27Similar
Q1 12:10
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
90.0%
Dresser Winn pass complete to Terry Williams for 3 yds to the TnMar 30Similar
Q1 12:10
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-7
90.0%
Dresser Winn sacked by Kylan Stribling for a loss of 7 yards to the TnMar 23Similar
Q1 12:10
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
90.1%
Zane Cox punt for 23 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TnMar 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 4TD
7 plays · 46 yds · 2:0290% → 90%
Q1 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
89.8%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Ty LeeSimilar
Q1 10:42
2ND & 10
OPP 46
-2
89.8%
Brent Stockstill sacked by Porter Streator III for a loss of 2 yards to the TnMar 48Similar
Q1 10:42
3RD & 12
OPP 48
+14
89.7%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Brad Anderson for 14 yds to the TnMar 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+23
89.7%
Ty Lee run for 23 yds to the TnMar 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+1
89.7%
Chaton Mobley run for 1 yd to the TnMar 10Similar
Q1 8:40
2ND & 9
OPP 10
+10
90.3%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to CJ Windham for 10 yds for a TD (Crews Holt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q1 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-5
90.0%
Dresser Winn pass complete to Devonte Howard for a loss of 5 yards to the TnMar 3Similar
Q1 8:40
2ND & 15
OWN 3
0
90.0%
Jaimiee Bowe run for no gain to the TnMar 3Similar
Q1 8:40
3RD & 15
OWN 3
0
90.1%
Dresser Winn pass incomplete, broken up by DQ Thomas TENN MARTIN Penalty, false start ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 8:40
4TH & 15
OWN 3
+8
90.1%
Zane Cox punt for 48 yds , Reed Blankenship returns for 8 yds to the TnMar 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 6FUMBLE
6 plays · 22 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q1 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
90.1%
Chaton Mobley run for 5 yds to the TnMar 38Similar
Q1 7:25
2ND & 5
OPP 38
-1
90.1%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ty Lee for a loss of 1 yard to the TnMar 39Similar
Q1 7:25
3RD & 6
OPP 39
+8
90.0%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Brad Anderson for 8 yds to the TnMar 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
90.2%
Terelle West run for 2 yds to the TnMar 29Similar
Q1 7:25
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+20
90.2%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to CJ Windham for 20 yds to the TnMar 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-3
90.2%
Brent Stockstill run for a loss of 3 yards to the TnMar 21 Brent Stockstill fumbled, recovered by TnMar TJ JeffersonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 7INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q1 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
89.4%
Dresser Winn pass intercepted Darryl Randolph return for no gain to the TnMar 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -13 yds · 0:0090% → 89%
Q1 4:52
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-2
89.9%
Chaton Mobley run for a loss of 2 yards to the TnMar 43Similar
Q1 4:52
2ND & 12
OPP 43
0
89.8%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Brad AndersonSimilar
Q1 4:52
3RD & 12
OPP 43
-11
89.6%
Brent Stockstill sacked by James Gilleylen for a loss of 11 yards to the MTnSt 46Similar
Q1 4:52
4TH & 23
OWN 46
0
89.3%
Matt Bonadies punt for 48 yds, downed at the TnMar 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q1 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
89.2%
Jaimiee Bowe run for no gain to the TnMar 6Similar
Q1 3:21
2ND & 10
OWN 6
+13
89.3%
Jaimiee Bowe run for 13 yds to the TnMar 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
89.1%
Dresser Winn pass incomplete to Terry WilliamsSimilar
Q1 3:21
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+5
89.1%
Dresser Winn pass complete to Jaylon Moore for 5 yds to the TnMar 24Similar
Q1 3:21
3RD & 5
OWN 24
0
89.2%
Dresser Winn pass incomplete to LaDarius GallowaySimilar
Q1 3:21
4TH & 5
OWN 24
0
89.3%
Zane Cox punt for 51 yds, downed at the MTnSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q1 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
89.1%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Chaton Mobley for 4 yds to the MTnSt 29Similar
Q1 1:56
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
89.1%
Brent Stockstill run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 31Similar
Q1 1:56
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-9
89.0%
Asher O'Hara sacked by Austin Pickett and Korbin Harmon for a loss of 9 yards to the MTnSt 22Similar
Q1 1:56
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
88.6%
Matt Bonadies punt for 48 yds , LaDarius Galloway returns for no gain to the TnMar 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 11TD
8 plays · 70 yds · 2:0211% → 16%
Q1 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+25
88.6%
Dresser Winn pass complete to Christian Philpott for 25 yds to the MTnSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
87.9%
Dresser Winn pass complete to Ben Phillips Jr. for 4 yds to the MTnSt 41Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+9
88.0%
Dresser Winn pass complete to Terry Williams for 9 yds to the MTnSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
87.6%
Dresser Winn pass complete to Terry Williams for 8 yds to the MTnSt 24Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 24
+12
87.6%
WINN, Dresser pass incomplete, QB hurry by BROOKS, Khalil, PENALTY MT roughing passer (BROOKS, Khalil) 12 yards to the MT12, 1ST DOWN UTM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
87.6%
Dresser Winn run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 11Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 11
0
87.6%
Dresser Winn pass incomplete to Ben Phillips Jr., broken up by Chris MeltonSimilar
Q2 13:07
3RD & 9
OPP 11
+11
84.1%
Dresser Winn pass complete to Terry Williams for 11 yds for a TD (Ryan Courtright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q2 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
85.7%
Chaton Mobley run for 11 yds to the MTnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
86.0%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Patrick SmithSimilar
Q2 13:07
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
85.9%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to CJ WindhamSimilar
Q2 13:07
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+4
85.5%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Terelle West for 4 yds to the MTnSt 40Similar
Q2 13:07
4TH & 6
OWN 40
0
85.6%
Matt Bonadies punt for 59 yds, downed at the TnMar 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q2 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
84.7%
Dresser Winn pass incomplete to Ben Phillips Jr.Similar
Q2 11:40
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+1
84.7%
Jaimiee Bowe run for 1 yd to the TnMar 2Similar
Q2 11:40
3RD & 9
OWN 2
+2
85.0%
Dresser Winn run for 2 yds to the TnMar 4Similar
Q2 11:40
4TH & 7
OWN 4
+27
85.3%
Zane Cox punt for 51 yds , Reed Blankenship returns for 27 yds to the TnMar 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 14TD
3 plays · 28 yds · 0:3786% → 89%
Q2 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+19
86.1%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ty Lee for 19 yds to the TnMar 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
86.1%
Brent Stockstill run for 8 yds to the TnMar 1Similar
Q2 9:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
88.6%
Chaton Mobley run for 1 yd for a TD (Crews Holt PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q2 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
87.2%
Dresser Winn pass complete to LaDarius Galloway for 6 yds to the TnMar 31Similar
Q2 9:46
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
86.8%
LaDarius Galloway run for no gain to the TnMar 31Similar
Q2 9:46
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+15
87.2%
WINN, Dresser pass incomplete to WILLIAMS, Rodne, PENALTY MT personal foul 15 yards to the UTM46, 1ST DOWN UTM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
86.3%
Dresser Winn pass incomplete to Terry WilliamsSimilar
Q2 9:46
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+2
86.7%
Dresser Winn pass complete to Jaylon Moore for 2 yds to the TnMar 48Similar
Q2 9:46
3RD & 8
OWN 48
0
86.7%
LaDarius Galloway run for no gain to the TnMar 48Similar
Q2 9:46
4TH & 8
OWN 48
0
87.3%
Zane Cox punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MTnSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0088% → 87%
Q2 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
87.6%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Patrick SmithSimilar
Q2 7:17
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+6
87.5%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Brad Anderson for 6 yds to the MTnSt 21Similar
Q2 7:17
3RD & 4
OWN 21
+2
87.3%
Brent Stockstill run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 23Similar
Q2 7:17
4TH & 2
OWN 23
0
86.9%
Matt Bonadies punt for 39 yds, fair catch by LaDarius Galloway at the TnMar 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 17FG
14 plays · 35 yds · 3:3714% → 17%
Q2 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
86.5%
Dresser Winn pass complete to Jaylon Moore for 6 yds to the TnMar 44Similar
Q2 6:12
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+6
85.9%
Dresser Winn pass complete to Devonte Howard for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:12
1ST & 10
50
0
85.7%
Dresser Winn pass incomplete to Jaimiee BoweSimilar
Q2 6:12
2ND & 10
50
-9
86.1%
Dresser Winn run for 1 yd to the MIDDLETENN 49 TENN MARTIN Penalty, illegal block (-10 Yards) to the TnMar 41Similar
Q2 6:12
2ND & 19
OWN 41
+11
86.8%
WINN, Dresser pass incomplete to WILLIAMS, Rodne, QB hurry by POYDRAS, R., PENALTY MT pass interference 11 yards to the MT48, 1ST DOWN UTM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
85.7%
Dresser Winn pass complete to Ben Phillips Jr. for 7 yds to the MTnSt 41Similar
Q2 6:12
2ND & 3
OPP 41
0
85.7%
Dresser Winn pass incomplete to Peyton LoganSimilar
Q2 6:12
3RD & 3
OPP 41
+11
85.9%
Peyton Logan run for 11 yds to the MTnSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
84.0%
Dresser Winn pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+1
84.1%
Dresser Winn pass complete to Terry Williams for 1 yd to the MTnSt 29Similar
Q2 4:00
3RD & 9
OPP 29
+2
85.0%
Dresser Winn pass complete to Terry Williams for 2 yds to the MTnSt 27Similar
Q2 2:35
4TH & 7
OPP 27
+44
83.2%
Ryan Courtright 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 18TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:0383% → 89%
Q2 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
83.3%
Chaton Mobley run for 4 yds to the MTnSt 29Similar
Q2 2:35
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+28
83.4%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ruben Garnett for 28 yds to the TnMar 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+22
84.8%
Chaton Mobley run for 22 yds to the TnMar 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+16
85.4%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Jimmy Marshall for 16 yds to the TnMar 5 for a 1ST down TENN MARTIN Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
85.4%
Terelle West run for no gain to the TnMar 5Similar
Q2 2:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
85.4%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Ty LeeSimilar
Q2 0:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
88.5%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Patrick Smith for 5 yds for a TD (Crews Holt PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 19END OF HALF
3 plays · 7 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
88.3%
LaDarius Galloway run for 6 yds to the TnMar 28Similar
Q2 0:32
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+1
88.0%
LaDarius Galloway run for 1 yd to the TnMar 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 0:0087% → 86%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
87.4%
Chaton Mobley run for 7 yds to the MTnSt 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-10
87.9%
MOBLEY, Chaton rush for 3 yards to the MT35 (WALL, Garrett), PENALTY MT holding 10 yards to the MT22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 22
-7
87.2%
Brent Stockstill sacked by Kevin Prather Jr. for a loss of 7 yards to the MTnSt 15Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 20
OWN 15
+5
86.7%
Chaton Mobley run for 5 yds to the MTnSt 20Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
86.2%
Matt Bonadies punt for 41 yds, fair catch by LaDarius Galloway at the TnMar 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 21PUNT
11 plays · 14 yds · 1:4114% → 12%
Q3 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
85.8%
Dresser Winn pass complete to Devonte Howard for 8 yds to the TnMar 48Similar
Q3 13:10
2ND & 2
OWN 48
0
85.1%
Dresser Winn run for no gain to the TnMar 48Similar
Q3 13:10
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+3
85.6%
LaDarius Galloway run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
85.2%
Dresser Winn pass incomplete to Terry WilliamsSimilar
Q3 13:10
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+8
85.5%
Dresser Winn pass complete to Colton Dowell for 8 yds to the MTnSt 41Similar
Q3 11:29
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+3
86.1%
LaDarius Galloway run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
86.1%
Dresser Winn pass incomplete to Jaylon Moore, broken up by Darius HarrisSimilar
Q3 11:29
2ND & 10
OPP 38
-2
86.1%
Kevon Abrams run for a loss of 2 yards to the MTnSt 40Similar
Q3 11:29
3RD & 12
OPP 40
-6
86.9%
Dresser Winn sacked by DQ Thomas for a loss of 6 yards to the MTnSt 46Similar
Q3 11:29
4TH & 18
OPP 46
0
87.9%
Zane Cox punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 22TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 2:0089% → 95%
Q3 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
88.9%
Chaton Mobley run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 22Similar
Q3 9:32
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+4
88.8%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Ty Lee for 4 yds to the MTnSt 26Similar
Q3 9:32
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+66
88.5%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Brad Anderson for 66 yds to the TnMar 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
90.3%
Brent Stockstill run for 1 yd to the TnMar 7Similar
Q3 7:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
95.3%
Chaton Mobley run for 7 yds for a TD (Crews Holt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 23PUNT RETURN TD
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:267% → 2%
Q3 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
93.1%
Dresser Winn pass complete to Jaimiee Bowe for a loss of 2 yards to the TnMar 23Similar
Q3 7:32
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+1
93.3%
Jaimiee Bowe run for 1 yd to the TnMar 24Similar
Q3 7:32
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
93.4%
Dresser Winn pass incomplete to Ben Phillips Jr.Similar
Q3 6:06
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+35
97.8%
Zane Cox punt for 11 yds , Wayne Parks returns for 35 yds for a TD (Crews Holt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 24TD
5 plays · 65 yds · 1:272% → 6%
Q3 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
97.6%
LaDarius Galloway run for 4 yds to the TnMar 39Similar
Q3 6:06
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+3
97.6%
Dresser Winn pass complete to Devonte Howard for 3 yds to the TnMar 42Similar
Q3 6:06
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+7
97.6%
Dresser Winn pass complete to Jaylon Moore for 7 yds to the TnMar 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+51
93.6%
Dresser Winn pass complete to LaDarius Galloway for 51 yds for a TD (Ryan Courtright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 25TD
9 plays · 65 yds · 2:2696% → 99%
Q3 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
95.7%
Chaton Mobley run for a loss of 2 yards to the MTnSt 33Similar
Q3 4:39
2ND & 12
OWN 33
+8
95.6%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Patrick Smith for 8 yds to the MTnSt 41Similar
Q3 4:39
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+8
95.7%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Brad Anderson for 8 yds to the MTnSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
95.9%
Brent Stockstill run for 8 yds to the TnMar 43Similar
Q3 4:39
2ND & 2
OPP 43
0
96.0%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Jimmy Marshall, broken up by DaVonte MauraSimilar
Q3 4:39
3RD & 2
OPP 43
+10
95.9%
STOCKSTILL, B. pass incomplete to GARNETT, Ruben, PENALTY UTM holding 10 yards to the UTM33, 1ST DOWN MT, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
96.0%
Terelle West run for no gain to the TnMar 33Similar
Q3 2:13
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+33
98.8%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Patrick Smith for 33 yds for a TD (Crews Holt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 26TD
15 plays · 71 yds · 5:332% → 4%
Q3 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
98.4%
Peyton Logan run for 5 yds to the TnMar 34Similar
Q3 2:13
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+6
98.4%
Dresser Winn pass complete to Terry Williams for 6 yds to the TnMar 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-11
98.4%
Dresser Winn sacked by DQ Thomas for a loss of 11 yards to the TnMar 29Similar
Q3 2:13
2ND & 21
OWN 29
+6
98.5%
Dresser Winn pass complete to Terry Williams for 6 yds to the TnMar 35Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 35
+23
98.8%
Dresser Winn pass complete to Jaylon Moore for 23 yds to the MTnSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
98.7%
Dresser Winn pass incomplete to Jaylon MooreSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
98.7%
Dresser Winn pass incomplete to Terry WilliamsSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 42
+16
98.7%
Dresser Winn pass complete to Terry Williams for 16 yds to the MTnSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
98.6%
LaDarius Galloway run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 23Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 23
-8
98.5%
Dresser Winn sacked by Darius Harris for a loss of 8 yards to the MTnSt 31Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 15
OPP 31
+17
98.7%
Dresser Winn pass complete to Devonte Howard for 17 yds to the MTnSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
98.5%
Dresser Winn pass incomplete to Terry Williams, broken up by Khalil BrooksSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+6
98.5%
Peyton Logan run for 6 yds to the MTnSt 8Similar
Q4 11:40
3RD & 4
OPP 8
+8
96.1%
Dresser Winn pass complete to Terry Williams for 8 yds for a TD (Ryan Courtright PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 27TD
6 plays · 59 yds · 2:084% → 10%
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
96.4%
Jaimiee Bowe run for no gain to the TnMar 41Similar
Q4 11:40
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+14
96.5%
Jaimiee Bowe run for 14 yds to the MTnSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
96.4%
Dresser Winn sacked by Gregory Grate Jr. for a loss of 5 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 11:40
2ND & 15
50
+13
96.6%
Dresser Winn pass complete to Ben Phillips Jr. for 13 yds to the MTnSt 37Similar
Q4 9:32
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+37
90.3%
Jaimiee Bowe run for 37 yds for a TD (Ryan Courtright KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 28TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:0491% → 98%
Q4 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
90.8%
Brent Stockstill pass incomplete to Ty LeeSimilar
Q4 9:32
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
90.6%
Brent Stockstill run for no gain to the MTnSt 25Similar
Q4 9:32
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+39
90.2%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Brad Anderson for 39 yds to the TnMar 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
91.7%
Chaton Mobley run for 3 yds to the TnMar 33Similar
Q4 9:32
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+6
92.1%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Luke Shiflett for 6 yds to the TnMar 27Similar
Q4 9:32
3RD & 1
OPP 27
-5
91.6%
MIDDLE TENN Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TnMar 32Similar
Q4 9:32
3RD & 6
OPP 32
+5
91.6%
Terelle West run for 5 yds to the TnMar 27Similar
Q4 9:32
4TH & 1
OPP 27
+1
91.1%
Brent Stockstill run for 1 yd to the TnMar 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
98.1%
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Patrick Smith for 26 yds for a TD (Crews Holt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 29INT TD
10 plays · 70 yds · 3:013% → 1%
Q4 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
97.5%
LaDarius Galloway run for 3 yds to the TnMar 28 for a 1ST down MIDDLE TENN Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the TnMar 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
97.3%
Dresser Winn pass complete to Devonte Howard for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 6:28
2ND & 3
50
+3
97.1%
LaDarius Galloway run for 3 yds to the MTnSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+37
97.2%
Dresser Winn pass complete to Jaylon Moore for 37 yds to the MTnSt 10 for a 1ST down MIDDLE TENN Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
96.8%
Peyton Logan run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 9Similar
Q4 6:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
96.8%
Dresser Winn pass incomplete to Peyton LoganSimilar
Q4 4:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
98.0%
Dresser Winn pass complete to LaDarius Galloway for 4 yds to the MTnSt 5Similar
Q4 3:27
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+97
99.5%
Dresser Winn pass intercepted for a TD Gregory Grate Jr. return for 97 yds for a TD (Crews Holt KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTMDrive 30PUNT
8 plays · 1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
99.6%
Kevon Abrams run for 3 yds to the TnMar 43Similar
Q4 3:27
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+3
99.6%
Joe Hudson pass complete to Rodney Williams II for 3 yds to the TnMar 46Similar
Q4 3:27
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+8
99.6%
Joe Hudson run for 8 yds to the MTnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:27
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
99.6%
Kevon Abrams run for 1 yd to the MTnSt 45Similar
Q4 3:27
2ND & 9
OPP 45
0
99.6%
Joe Hudson pass incomplete to Colton Dowell, broken up by Darryl RandolphSimilar
Q4 3:27
3RD & 9
OPP 45
-14
99.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 14 yards to the TnMar 41Similar
Q4 3:27
4TH & 23
OWN 41
0
99.6%
Zane Cox punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Ty Lee at the MTnSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MTSUDrive 31END OF GAME
2 plays · 11 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
99.7%
Jarek Campbell run for 9 yds to the MTnSt 34Similar
Q4 0:50
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
99.7%
John Turner run for 2 yds to the MTnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:28
Brent Stockstill pass complete to Patrick Smith for 26 yds for a TD (Crews Holt KICK)
+7
TD · Q4 9:32
Jaimiee Bowe run for 37 yds for a TD (Ryan Courtright KICK)
-6.3
TD · Q3 7:32
Chaton Mobley run for 7 yds for a TD (Crews Holt KICK)
+5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com