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NAU

Northern Arizona 30 at UTEP 10

UTEP
2018 · Week 1 · Sep 1, 2018 · Sun Bowl
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Win probability · UTEP
modelUTEP aheadNAU aheadconfidence bandkey playUTEP scoreNAU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 9:33 · DJ Arnson punt for 53 yds , Terry Juniel returns for no gain to the UTEP 11
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+51.0+25.50−25.5−51.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 20Home team on offense−1.2Score differential−0.4Pregame prior−12.6Garbage-time factor−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:04: Case Cookus pass complete to Emmanuel Butler for 84 yds for a TD, (Griffin Roehler KICK) — NAU win probability +9.4 pts (now 79%) (top driver: NAU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:42: Quardraiz Wadley run for 32 yds for a TD, (Jason Filley KICK) — UTEP win probability +8.2 pts (now 33%) (top driver: UTEP has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:10: Case Cookus pass complete to Emmanuel Butler for 6 yds for a TD, (Griffin Roehler PAT MISSED) — NAU win probability +9.8 pts (now 81%) (top driver: NAU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 4:28: Joe Logan run for 9 yds to the NoArz 33 — NAU win probability +7.3 pts (now 84%) (top driver: NAU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 2:13: Joe Logan run for 8 yds for a TD, (Luis Aguilar KICK) — NAU win probability +16.6 pts (now 97%) (top driver: NAU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UTEP made the numbers' call on 8 of 9NAU made the numbers' call on 4 of 8
  1. Q1 11:02UTEP 4th & 6 at UTEP 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.7%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:33NAU 4th & 1 at NAU 36, up 7
    Close callPunted · 66.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.1%−0.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:11NAU 4th & 5 at UTEP 9, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 66.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.5%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.6%
    89% to make
    Punt
    63.8%−2.8
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00UTEP 4th & 8 at NAU 47, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.8%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:49NAU 4th & 1 at NAU 21, up 10
    Close callPunted · 66.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.5%−0.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:25UTEP 4th & 9 at UTEP 43, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.0%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:49NAU 4th & 2 at NAU 32, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.8%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:57UTEP 4th & 10 at UTEP 39, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.1%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:02NAU 4th & 3 at NAU 32, up 10
    Close callPunted · 70.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:10UTEP 4th & 14 at UTEP 33, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.7%−2.1
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:56NAU 4th & 12 at NAU 26, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.5%−2.9
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:48UTEP 4th & 5 at NAU 24, down 13
    Close callWent for it · 22.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.2%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    22.3%
    68% to make
    Punt
    17.5%−4.8
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00UTEP 4th & 26 at UTEP 32, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.4%−2.9
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:57NAU 4th & 1 at NAU 40, up 20
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 96.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.8%−1.0
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:02UTEP 4th & 19 at UTEP 7, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.6%−1.0
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.6%
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:16NAU 4th & 14 at UTEP 28, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.5%−0.3
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.8%
    60% to make
    Punt
    97.8%−1.0
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:16UTEP 4th & 11 at UTEP 27, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UTEP made the numbers' call on 1 of 1NAU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 11:10NAU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:04NAU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:42UTEP Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 11:10NAU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    77.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:13NAU Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UTEPDrive 1INT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0036% → 36%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
36.3%
Quardraiz Wadley run for 5 yds to the UTEP 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
36.3%
Quardraiz Wadley run for no gain to the UTEP 30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
36.3%
Ryan Metz pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 2TD
7 plays · 49 yds · 3:5064% → 64%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+16
36.3%
Case Cookus pass complete to Emmanuel Butler for 16 yds to the UTEP 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
36.3%
Case Cookus pass complete to Emmanuel Butler for 6 yds to the UTEP 3Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
36.3%
Joe Logan run for 2 yds to the UTEP 1Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+11
36.3%
Case Cookus pass complete to Emmanuel Butler for 11 yds to the UTEP 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
36.3%
Cory Young run for 7 yds to the UTEP 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 31
+6
36.3%
Cory Young run for 6 yds to the UTEP 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
36.0%
Cory Young run for 1 yd for a TD, (Griffin Roehler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0037% → 36%
Q1 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
36.5%
Quardraiz Wadley run for 1 yd to the UTEP 31Similar
Q1 11:02
2ND & 9
OWN 31
0
36.4%
Ryan Metz pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:02
3RD & 9
OWN 31
+3
36.3%
Ryan Metz pass complete to Warren Redix for 3 yds to the UTEP 34Similar
Q1 11:02
4TH & 6
OWN 34
0
36.2%
Mitchell Crawford punt for 39 yds, downed at the NoArz 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0064% → 64%
Q1 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-3
36.3%
Case Cookus pass complete to Joe Logan for a loss of 3 yards to the NoArz 24Similar
Q1 9:33
2ND & 13
OWN 24
0
36.5%
Cory Young run for no gain to the NoArz 24Similar
Q1 9:33
3RD & 13
OWN 24
+12
36.6%
Case Cookus pass complete to Matthew Kempton for 12 yds to the NoArz 36Similar
Q1 9:33
4TH & 1
OWN 36
0
36.3%
DJ Arnson punt for 53 yds , Terry Juniel returns for no gain to the UTEP 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 5FUMBLE
6 plays · 23 yds · 0:0036% → 36%
Q1 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
36.2%
Kai Locksley run for 5 yds to the UTEP 16Similar
Q1 7:36
2ND & 5
OWN 16
-1
36.3%
Quardraiz Wadley run for a loss of 1 yard to the UTEP 15Similar
Q1 7:36
3RD & 6
OWN 15
+10
36.0%
Kai Locksley pass complete to Warren Redix for 10 yds to the UTEP 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
36.3%
Kavika Johnson run for no gain to the UTEP 25Similar
Q1 7:36
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
36.3%
Kai Locksley run for 6 yds to the UTEP 31Similar
Q1 7:36
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+8
36.2%
Kai Locksley pass complete to Winston Dimel for 3 yds Winston Dimel fumbled, forced by Maurice Davison, recovered by NoArz Brandon Worthy , return for 8 yds to the UTEP 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 6FG
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:0565% → 65%
Q1 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
34.9%
Case Cookus pass complete to Cory Young for 3 yds to the UTEP 23Similar
Q1 4:16
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+3
34.9%
Joe Logan run for 3 yds to the UTEP 20Similar
Q1 4:16
3RD & 4
OPP 20
+6
35.1%
Case Cookus pass complete to Joe Logan for 6 yds to the UTEP 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
34.9%
Case Cookus pass incomplete to Emmanuel ButlerSimilar
Q1 4:16
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+5
34.9%
Cory Young run for 5 yds to the UTEP 9Similar
Q1 4:16
3RD & 5
OPP 9
0
35.1%
Case Cookus pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:11
4TH & 5
OPP 9
+26
34.7%
Griffin Roehler 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 7PUNT
11 plays · 24 yds · 2:0434% → 34%
Q1 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
34.3%
Joshua Fields run for 2 yds to the UTEP 31Similar
Q1 2:04
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+4
34.4%
Kai Locksley pass complete to Terry Juniel for 4 yds to the UTEP 35Similar
Q1 2:04
3RD & 4
OWN 35
+5
34.1%
Kai Locksley pass complete to Walter Dawn Jr. for 5 yds to the UTEP 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
34.7%
Kai Locksley pass incomplete to Kavika Johnson, broken up by Kam'ron JohnsonSimilar
Q1 2:04
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+7
34.6%
Kai Locksley run for 7 yds to the UTEP 47Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+4
34.7%
Kai Locksley pass complete to Kavika Johnson for 4 yds to the NoArz 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
35.0%
Joshua Fields run for 7 yds to the NoArz 42Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+1
35.2%
Kai Locksley run for 1 yd to the NoArz 41Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 41
-6
35.0%
Kai Locksley run for a loss of 6 yards to the NoArz 47Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 8
OPP 47
0
33.8%
Mitchell Crawford punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Kam'ron Johnson at the NoArz 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:0066% → 65%
Q2 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-6
34.5%
Joe Logan run for no gain to the NoArz 12 NORTHRN ARIZONA Penalty, Offensive holding (-6 Yards) to the NoArz 6Similar
Q2 12:49
1ST & 16
OWN 6
+5
34.7%
COOKUS, Case sideline pass complete to BUTLER, E. for 7 yards to the NAU13 (BEVERLY, Kalon), PENALTY UTEP offside (RICHARDSON, C.) 5 yards to the NAU11, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:49
1ST & 11
OWN 11
+5
34.5%
Joe Logan run for 5 yds to the NoArz 16Similar
Q2 12:49
2ND & 6
OWN 16
+5
34.5%
Joe Logan run for 5 yds to the NoArz 21Similar
Q2 12:49
3RD & 1
OWN 21
0
34.7%
Joe Logan run for no gain to the NoArz 21Similar
Q2 12:49
4TH & 1
OWN 21
+17
35.3%
DJ Arnson punt for 54 yds , Terry Juniel returns for 17 yds to the UTEP 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0034% → 32%
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
33.5%
Treyvon Hughes run for 1 yd to the UTEP 43Similar
Q2 10:25
2ND & 9
OWN 43
0
33.5%
Kai Locksley pass incomplete to Warren Redix, broken up by Maurice DavisonSimilar
Q2 10:25
3RD & 9
OWN 43
0
32.8%
Kai Locksley pass incomplete to Walter Dawn Jr.Similar
Q2 10:25
4TH & 9
OWN 43
0
32.2%
Mitchell Crawford punt for 33 yds, downed at the NoArz 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q2 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
33.8%
Case Cookus pass complete to Nate Stinson for 5 yds to the NoArz 29Similar
Q2 8:49
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+2
33.2%
Nate Stinson run for 2 yds to the NoArz 31Similar
Q2 8:49
3RD & 3
OWN 31
+1
33.7%
Case Cookus pass complete to Brandon Porter for 1 yd to the NoArz 32Similar
Q2 8:49
4TH & 2
OWN 32
0
34.3%
DJ Arnson punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UTEP 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 0:0031% → 30%
Q2 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+11
31.3%
Kai Locksley run for 11 yds to the UTEP 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
31.9%
Kai Locksley run for 5 yds to the UTEP 44Similar
Q2 6:57
2ND & 5
OWN 44
0
32.4%
Kai Locksley pass incomplete to Kavika Johnson, broken up by Wes SuttonSimilar
Q2 6:57
3RD & 5
OWN 44
-5
31.7%
UTEP Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the UTEP 39Similar
Q2 6:57
3RD & 10
OWN 39
0
31.0%
Kai Locksley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:57
4TH & 10
OWN 39
0
30.1%
Mitchell Crawford punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Kam'ron Johnson at the NoArz 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 12TD
1 play · 84 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q2 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+84
20.7%
Case Cookus pass complete to Emmanuel Butler for 84 yds for a TD, (Griffin Roehler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 13TD
8 plays · 77 yds · 2:2123% → 33%
Q2 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-5
23.3%
UTEP Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the UTEP 18Similar
Q2 5:03
1ST & 15
OWN 18
+6
23.2%
Kai Locksley run for 6 yds to the UTEP 24Similar
Q2 5:03
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+14
23.1%
LOCKSLEY, Kai slant pass incomplete to JOHNSON, Kavika, PENALTY NAU pass interference (ORR, Elijah) 14 yards to the UTEP38, 1ST DOWN UTEP, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
24.4%
LOCKSLEY, Kai deep pass incomplete to FOSTER, Keynan, PENALTY NAU pass interference (ORR, Elijah) 15 yards to the NAU47, 1ST DOWN UTEP, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
25.1%
Kai Locksley run for 3 yds to the NoArz 44Similar
Q2 5:03
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+12
25.1%
Kai Locksley pass complete to David Lucero for 12 yds to the NoArz 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
33.2%
Quardraiz Wadley run for 32 yds for a TD, (Jason Filley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 0:4070% → 70%
Q2 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
30.4%
Nate Stinson run for 4 yds to the NoArz 29Similar
Q2 2:42
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
29.9%
Nate Stinson run for 1 yd to the NoArz 30Similar
Q2 2:07
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+2
29.3%
Case Cookus pass complete to Nate Stinson for 2 yds to the NoArz 32Similar
Q2 2:02
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+55
30.0%
DJ Arnson punt for 45 yds, downed at the UTEP 23 UTEP Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the UTEP 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 15FG
14 plays · 81 yds · 1:5129% → 35%
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+7
28.5%
Kai Locksley pass complete to Warren Redix for 7 yds to the UTEP 20Similar
Q2 1:51
2ND & 3
OWN 20
+15
28.7%
LOCKSLEY, Kai crossing pass incomplete to FIELDS, Joshua, PENALTY NAU personal foul 15 yards to the UTEP35, 1ST DOWN UTEP, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
28.9%
Kai Locksley pass incomplete to Quardraiz Wadley, broken up by Carson TaylorSimilar
Q2 1:51
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+9
28.7%
Kai Locksley pass complete to Warren Redix for 9 yds to the UTEP 44Similar
Q2 1:51
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+3
29.7%
Kai Locksley run for 3 yds to the UTEP 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
30.2%
Kai Locksley pass incomplete to Terry JunielSimilar
Q2 1:51
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
29.9%
Kai Locksley pass incomplete to Quardraiz Wadley, broken up by Carson TaylorSimilar
Q2 1:51
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+21
29.1%
Kai Locksley pass complete to Walter Dawn Jr. for 21 yds to the NoArz 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+26
32.1%
Kai Locksley pass complete to Quardraiz Wadley for 26 yds to the NoArz 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-5
30.8%
UTEP Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NoArz 11Similar
Q2 0:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 11
+5
30.8%
Kai Locksley run for 5 yds to the NoArz 6Similar
Q2 0:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
30.8%
Kai Locksley pass incomplete to Walter Dawn Jr.Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
35.1%
Jason Filley 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 16TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 3:5069% → 81%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
31.1%
Case Cookus pass complete to Brandon Porter for 7 yds to the NoArz 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+1
30.1%
Joe Logan run for 1 yd to the NoArz 33Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
30.5%
Joe Logan run for 3 yds to the NoArz 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
30.1%
Joe Logan run for 7 yds to the NoArz 43Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+4
29.3%
COOKUS, Case sideline pass incomplete to BUTLER, E., PENALTY UTEP pass interference (NEEDHAM, Nik) 4 yards to the NAU47, 1ST DOWN NAU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+12
29.3%
Nate Stinson run for 12 yds to the UTEP 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
28.9%
Nate Stinson run for 3 yds to the UTEP 38Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 38
0
28.8%
Case Cookus pass incomplete to Jonathan Baldwin, broken up by Kahani SmithSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 38
-5
29.3%
NORTHRN ARIZONA Penalty, false start (Jamison Pruitt) to the UTEP 43Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 43
+14
29.8%
Case Cookus pass complete to Brandon Porter for 14 yds to the UTEP 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+15
28.5%
Case Cookus pass complete to Emmanuel Butler for 15 yds to the UTEP 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+8
28.5%
Joe Logan run for 8 yds to the UTEP 6Similar
Q3 11:10
2ND & 2
OPP 6
+6
18.8%
Case Cookus pass complete to Emmanuel Butler for 6 yds for a TD, (Griffin Roehler PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 0:0024% → 23%
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
24.3%
Keynan Foster run for 12 yds to the UTEP 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
24.8%
UTEP Penalty, false start (Keynan Foster) to the UTEP 32Similar
Q3 11:10
1ST & 15
OWN 32
+9
24.2%
Quardraiz Wadley run for 9 yds to the UTEP 41Similar
Q3 11:10
2ND & 6
OWN 41
-8
25.5%
Kai Locksley sacked by Aaron Andrews for a loss of 8 yards to the UTEP 33Similar
Q3 11:10
3RD & 14
OWN 33
0
23.4%
Kai Locksley pass incomplete to David LuceroSimilar
Q3 11:10
4TH & 14
OWN 33
0
23.4%
Mitchell Crawford punt for 39 yds, downed at the NoArz 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0080% → 79%
Q3 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-6
19.8%
Case Cookus pass complete to Brandon Porter for 4 yds to the NoArz 32 NORTHRN ARIZONA Penalty, Offensive holding (Chancellor Brewington) to the NoArz 22Similar
Q3 8:56
1ST & 16
OWN 22
+4
20.2%
Joe Logan run for 4 yds to the NoArz 26Similar
Q3 8:56
2ND & 12
OWN 26
0
20.1%
Case Cookus pass incomplete to Brandon Porter, broken up by Denzel ChukwukeluSimilar
Q3 8:56
3RD & 12
OWN 26
0
20.7%
Case Cookus pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:56
4TH & 12
OWN 26
+8
20.9%
DJ Arnson punt for 37 yds , Terry Juniel returns for 8 yds to the UTEP 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 19DOWNS
7 plays · 31 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q3 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
23.3%
Kai Locksley pass incomplete to Kavika JohnsonSimilar
Q3 7:48
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+7
22.9%
Kai Locksley pass complete to Winston Dimel for 7 yds to the NoArz 48Similar
Q3 7:48
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+19
23.9%
Kai Locksley run for 19 yds to the NoArz 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
25.9%
Quardraiz Wadley run for no gain to the NoArz 29Similar
Q3 7:48
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+1
25.4%
Winston Dimel run for 1 yd to the NoArz 28Similar
Q3 7:48
3RD & 9
OPP 28
+4
23.9%
Kai Locksley pass complete to Walter Dawn Jr. for 4 yds to the NoArz 24Similar
Q3 7:48
4TH & 5
OPP 24
0
23.1%
Kai Locksley pass incomplete to Keynan FosterSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 20INT
4 plays · 14 yds · 0:0084% → 85%
Q3 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
15.8%
Joe Logan run for 9 yds to the NoArz 33Similar
Q3 4:28
2ND & 1
OWN 33
+6
15.4%
Joe Logan run for 6 yds to the NoArz 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
14.6%
Nate Stinson run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoArz 38Similar
Q3 4:28
2ND & 11
OWN 38
+17
14.9%
Case Cookus pass intercepted Kalon Beverly return for 2 yds to the UTEP 40 UTEP Penalty, personal foul (Trace Mascorro) to the UTEP 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 21INT
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:0021% → 20%
Q3 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
20.5%
UTEP Penalty, false start (Zuri Henry) to the UTEP 35Similar
Q3 3:14
1ST & 15
OWN 35
+4
19.3%
Kai Locksley run for 4 yds to the UTEP 39Similar
Q3 3:14
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+59
20.0%
Kai Locksley pass intercepted Kam'ron Johnson return for 59 yds to the UTEP 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 22TD
1 play · 8 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q3 2:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
3.4%
Joe Logan run for 8 yds for a TD, (Luis Aguilar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 23PUNT
8 plays · -6 yds · 2:036% → 4%
Q3 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
5.5%
Kai Locksley pass complete to David Lucero for 8 yds to the UTEP 46Similar
Q3 2:03
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+1
5.8%
Kai Locksley run for 1 yd to the UTEP 47Similar
Q3 2:03
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+1
5.7%
Kai Locksley run for 1 yd to the UTEP 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-3
4.7%
Quardraiz Wadley run for a loss of 3 yards to the UTEP 45Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 45
-6
4.6%
Kai Locksley run for a loss of 6 yards to the UTEP 38 Kai Locksley fumbled, recovered by UTEP Kai LocksleySimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 20
OWN 38
-6
4.5%
Kai Locksley sacked by Taylor Powell and Chauntez Thomas for a loss of 6 yards to the UTEP 32Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 26
OWN 32
0
4.4%
Mitchell Crawford punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
3.1%
Nate Stinson run for 6 yds to the NoArz 37Similar
Q4 12:57
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+3
3.0%
Case Cookus pass complete to Brandon Porter for 3 yds to the NoArz 40Similar
Q4 12:57
3RD & 1
OWN 40
0
3.0%
Nate Stinson run for no gain to the NoArz 40Similar
Q4 12:57
4TH & 1
OWN 40
+43
3.2%
DJ Arnson punt for 43 yds , Terry Juniel returns for a loss of 1 yard to the UTEP 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · -9 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-9
2.8%
Ryan Metz sacked by Carson Taylor for a loss of 9 yards to the UTEP 7Similar
Q4 11:02
2ND & 19
OWN 7
+9
2.7%
Treyvon Hughes run for 9 yds to the UTEP 16Similar
Q4 11:02
3RD & 10
OWN 16
-9
2.7%
Ryan Metz sacked by Anthony Sweeney for a loss of 9 yards to the UTEP 7Similar
Q4 11:02
4TH & 19
OWN 7
+4
2.7%
Mitchell Crawford punt for 47 yds , Justis Stokes returns for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 26MISSED FG
10 plays · 22 yds · 5:3498% → 99%
Q4 8:50
1ST & 10
50
+3
1.8%
Joe Logan run for 3 yds to the UTEP 47Similar
Q4 8:50
2ND & 7
OPP 47
0
1.8%
Case Cookus pass incomplete to Jonathan BaldwinSimilar
Q4 8:50
3RD & 7
OPP 47
+11
1.8%
Case Cookus pass complete to Chancellor Brewington for 11 yds to the UTEP 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-1
1.8%
Joe Logan run for a loss of 1 yard to the UTEP 37Similar
Q4 8:50
2ND & 11
OPP 37
+5
1.8%
Joe Logan run for 5 yds to the UTEP 32Similar
Q4 8:50
3RD & 6
OPP 32
+8
1.8%
Case Cookus pass complete to Chancellor Brewington for 8 yds to the UTEP 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
1.8%
Joe Logan run for 6 yds to the UTEP 18Similar
Q4 8:50
2ND & 4
OPP 18
-4
1.8%
Nate Stinson run for a loss of 4 yards to the UTEP 22Similar
Q4 8:50
3RD & 8
OPP 22
-6
1.9%
Elijah Orr sacked by Mike Sota for a loss of 6 yards to the UTEP 28Similar
Q4 3:16
4TH & 14
OPP 28
+46
1.0%
Luis Aguilar 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTEPDrive 27PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
1.2%
Ryan Metz pass complete to Josh Weeks for 4 yds to the UTEP 32Similar
Q4 3:16
2ND & 6
OWN 32
-5
1.2%
Ryan Metz sacked by Brandon Lawless for a loss of 5 yards to the UTEP 27 UTEP Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 3:16
3RD & 11
OWN 27
0
1.2%
Ryan Metz pass incomplete to Warren RedixSimilar
Q4 3:16
4TH & 11
OWN 27
0
1.1%
Mitchell Crawford punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NoArz 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAUDrive 28END OF GAME
4 plays · -8 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 2:12
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-5
0.9%
NORTHRN ARIZONA Penalty, false start (Jamison Pruitt) to the NoArz 24Similar
Q4 2:12
1ST & 15
OWN 24
-3
0.9%
Sherrod Paige run for a loss of 3 yards to the NoArz 21Similar
Q4 2:12
2ND & 18
OWN 21
+2
0.9%
Aramis Aldredge run for 2 yds to the NoArz 23Similar
Q4 2:12
3RD & 16
OWN 23
-2
1.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoArz 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:13
Joe Logan run for 8 yds for a TD, (Luis Aguilar KICK)
-16.6
TD · Q3 11:10
Case Cookus pass complete to Emmanuel Butler for 6 yds for a TD, (Griffin Roehler PAT MISSED)
-9.8
TD · Q2 5:04
Case Cookus pass complete to Emmanuel Butler for 84 yds for a TD, (Griffin Roehler KICK)
-9.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com