2018 · Week 1 · Aug 30, 2018 · Legion Field
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Win probability · UAB
modelUAB aheadSAV aheadconfidence bandkey playUAB scoreSAV score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 4:00 · Chandler Williams punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UAB 18
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 10:54: Spencer Brown run for 3 yds for a TD (Nick Vogel KICK) — SAV win probability +0.2 pts (now 1%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
- TD · Q2 7:58: TJ Bell pass intercepted for a TD Chris Woolbright return for 34 yds for a TD (Nick Vogel KICK) — UAB win probability +0.9 pts (now 98%) (top driver: SAV has the ball).
- TD · Q2 4:55: A.J. Erdely pass complete to Andre Wilson for 14 yds for a TD (Nick Vogel KICK) — UAB win probability +1.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
- TD · Q2 2:37: Kingston Davis run for 1 yd for a TD (Nick Vogel KICK) — UAB win probability +0.5 pts (now 100%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
- TD · Q3 7:24: A.J. Erdely pass complete to Collin Lisa for 11 yds for a TD (Nick Vogel KICK) — UAB win probability +0.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: UAB has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UAB made the numbers' call on 2 of 3SAV made the numbers' call on 11 of 11
- Q1 10:54SAV 4th & 9 at SAV 41, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.7% before the snapGo for it1.7%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.8%average punt
- Q1 5:17SAV 4th & 7 at SAV 38, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snapGo for it2.2%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.3%average punt
- Q1 4:00SAV 4th & 26 at UAB 44, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.4% before the snapGo for it2.3%−0.27% to convertField goal2.3%−0.127% to makePuntTheir call2.4%average punt
- Q1 0:14UAB 4th & 1 at UAB 27, up 7Close callPunted · 97.0% before the snapGo for it97.1%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.0%−0.1average punt
- Q2 15:00SAV 4th & 8 at SAV 37, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.9% before the snapGo for it2.9%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call2.9%average punt
- Q2 14:08UAB 4th & 16 at SAV 44, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.8% before the snapGo for it96.8%−0.116% to convertField goal96.8%−0.127% to makePuntTheir call96.9%average punt
- Q2 4:55SAV 4th & 13 at SAV 22, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.5% before the snapGo for it1.3%−0.319% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.6%average punt
- Q2 2:37SAV 4th & 13 at SAV 40, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snapGo for it0.3%−0.220% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q3 15:00SAV 4th & 7 at SAV 41, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snapGo for it0.5%−0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.6%average punt
- Q3 7:24SAV 4th & 16 at SAV 49, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.116% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q3 0:35UAB 4th & 6 at SAV 6, up 35Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−<0.131% to convertField goalTheir call99.8%91% to makePunt99.4%−0.5average punt
- Q4 15:00SAV 4th & 6 at SAV 29, down 38Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 11:13SAV 4th & 16 at UAB 42, down 45Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.116% to convertField goal0.0%−<0.130% to makePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 3:14SAV 4th & 6 at SAV 49, down 52Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UAB made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
- Q1 10:54UAB Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.3%97% to makeGo for two98.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:58UAB Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.2%97% to makeGo for two97.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:55UAB Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.7%97% to makeGo for two98.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:37UAB Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 7:24UAB Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 11:21UAB Touchdown, up 44 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 3:23UAB Touchdown, up 51 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUABDrive 1TD10 plays · 70 yds · 4:0699% → 99%
SAVDrive 2PUNT6 plays · 16 yds · 0:001% → 1%
UABDrive 3INT10 plays · 44 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q1 9:31
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+12
98.5%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Collin Lisa for 12 yds to the SavSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
98.5%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Collin Lisa for 1 yd to the SavSt 47Similar
Q1 9:31
2ND & 9
OPP 47
0
98.5%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Jarrion Street for no gain to the SavSt 47Similar
Q1 9:31
3RD & 9
OPP 47
+12
98.5%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Collin Lisa for 12 yds to the SavSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:31
2ND & 13
OPP 38
0
98.5%
A.J. Erdely pass intercepted John Wilson return for no gain to the SavSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAVDrive 4PUNT6 plays · 21 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q1 5:17
1ST & 15
OWN 12
+23
98.1%
D'Vonn Gibbons pass complete to D'Andre Snead for 23 yds to the SavSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:17
4TH & 7
OWN 38
+4
98.1%
Giovanni Lugo punt for 41 yds , Andre Wilson returns for 4 yds to the UAB 28 Andre Wilson fumbled, forced by Kiwon Harris, recovered by SavSt Isaiah BennettSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAVDrive 5PUNT5 plays · -16 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-15
97.8%
BELL,TJ pass complete to BALDWIN,J. for 16 yards to the UAB12 (DIGGS, Mar'Sean;86), PENALTY SSU pass interference 15 yards to the UAB43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:00
1ST & 25
OPP 43
-6
97.9%
TJ Bell sacked by Jamell Garcia-Williams for a loss of 6 yards to the UAB 49Similar
Q1 4:00
4TH & 26
OPP 44
0
98.0%
Chandler Williams punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UAB 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 6PUNT6 plays · 9 yds · 1:2298% → 97%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAVDrive 7PUNT6 plays · 17 yds · 0:063% → 2%
Q1 0:06
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+15
97.5%
UAB Penalty, roughing passer (15 Yards) to the SavSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 38
0
97.4%
D'Vonn Gibbons pass incomplete to D'Andre Snead, broken up by Brontae HarrisSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 37
0
97.6%
Giovanni Lugo punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Andre Wilson at the UAB 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 8PUNT13 plays · 30 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q2 14:08
3RD & 11
OWN 25
+12
97.3%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Andre Wilson for 12 yds to the UAB 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:08
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+8
97.5%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Donnie Lee for 8 yds to the UAB 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:08
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+7
97.5%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Collin Lisa for 7 yds to the SavSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:08
3RD & 3
OPP 31
+2
97.5%
Jarrion Street run for 2 yds to the SavSt 29 UAB Penalty, false start ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 14:08
4TH & 1
OPP 29
-15
97.4%
UAB Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the SavSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAVDrive 9INT TD3 plays · 10 yds · 1:053% → 3%
Q2 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+34
97.5%
TJ Bell pass intercepted for a TD Chris Woolbright return for 34 yds for a TD (Nick Vogel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAVDrive 10INT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 7:58
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
97.6%
D'Vonn Gibbons pass intercepted for a 1ST down Brontae Harris return for a loss of 2 yards to the SavSt 23 for a 1ST down UAB Penalty, face mask (10 yards) (10 Yards) to the SavSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 11TD5 plays · 43 yds · 2:2598% → 99%
SAVDrive 12PUNT6 plays · -3 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 4:55
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
98.7%
Chandler Williams punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UAB 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 13TD7 plays · 62 yds · 1:2999% → 100%
Q2 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+19
99.1%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Collin Lisa for 19 yds to the SavSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:06
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+21
99.1%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Collin Lisa for 6 yds to the SavSt 31 for a 1ST down SAVANNAH ST Penalty, personal foul (Donald Rutledge) to the SavSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:06
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+12
99.1%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Jarrion Street for 9 yds to the SavSt 7 for a 1ST down SAVANNAH ST Penalty, face mask (3 yards) (D'Armani Ridley) to the SavSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAVDrive 14PUNT8 plays · 15 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q2 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-6
99.8%
Rashad Saxton run for 10 yds to the UAB 47 SAVANNAH ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Stavion Stevenson) to the SavSt 37Similar
Q2 2:37
4TH & 13
OWN 40
+17
99.8%
Giovanni Lugo punt for 52 yds , Andre Wilson returns for 17 yds to the UAB 43 UAB Penalty, illegal block (Collin Lisa) to the UAB 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAVDrive 16PUNT8 plays · 16 yds · 0:000% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 17TD10 plays · 75 yds · 4:34100% → 100%
Q3 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
99.8%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Kendall Parham for 14 yds to the UAB 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:58
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+14
99.8%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Collin Lisa for 14 yds to the SavSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:58
2ND & 5
OPP 42
+8
99.8%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Collin Lisa for 8 yds to the SavSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:58
2ND & 8
OPP 32
+18
99.8%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Collin Lisa for 3 yds to the SavSt 29 for a 1ST down SAVANNAH ST Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Donald Rutledge) to the SavSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
99.8%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Austin Watkins for 1 yd to the SavSt 13Similar
Q3 7:24
3RD & 7
OPP 11
+11
99.8%
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Collin Lisa for 11 yds for a TD (Nick Vogel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAVDrive 18PUNT9 plays · 24 yds · 0:000% → 0%
UABDrive 19FG9 plays · 64 yds · 3:53100% → 100%
SAVDrive 20PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:350% → 0%
Q4 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
99.9%
Chandler Williams punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Andre Wilson at the UAB 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 21TD7 plays · 70 yds · 2:56100% → 100%
Q4 14:17
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
99.9%
James Noble III run for 7 yds to the SavSt 42 SAVANNAH ST Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 14:17
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+35
99.9%
Tyler Johnston III pass complete to Justin Walker for 35 yds to the SavSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.9%
Lucious Stanley run for 4 yds for a TD SAVANNAH ST Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined (Nick Vogel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAVDrive 22PUNT11 plays · 33 yds · 0:000% → 0%
UABDrive 23TD8 plays · 88 yds · 3:56100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SAVDrive 24PUNT6 plays · 20 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UABDrive 25END OF GAME3 plays · 10 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 4:55
A.J. Erdely pass complete to Andre Wilson for 14 yds for a TD (Nick Vogel KICK)
+1.3
TD · Q2 7:58
TJ Bell pass intercepted for a TD Chris Woolbright return for 34 yds for a TD (Nick Vogel KICK)
+0.9
TD · Q2 2:37
Kingston Davis run for 1 yd for a TD (Nick Vogel KICK)
+0.5