Try the model
HOU

Houston 45 at Rice 27

RICE
2018 · Week 1 · Sep 1, 2018 · Rice Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · RICE
modelRICE aheadHOU aheadconfidence bandkey playRICE scoreHOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:47 · Dane Roy punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Austin Trammell at the RICE 24 RICE Penalty, personal foul (12 Yards) to the Rice 12
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+47.0+23.50−23.5−47.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 89Pregame prior−32.6Home team on offense−2.0Score differential−2.4Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 3:34: D'Eriq King pass complete to Courtney Lark for 40 yds for a TD (D'Eriq King pass to Bryson Smith for Two-Point Conversion) — HOU win probability +10.7 pts (now 84%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:15: Shawn Stankavage pass complete to Brendan Harmon for 1 yd for a TD (Jack Fox KICK) — RICE win probability +9.6 pts (now 36%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 8:00: Haden Tobola 28 yd FG GOOD — RICE win probability +17.0 pts (now 52%) (top driver: RICE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 7:04: D'Eriq King run for 4 yds for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK) — HOU win probability +16.3 pts (now 70%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. TD · Q3 2:37: D'Eriq King pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 57 yds for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK) — HOU win probability +19.0 pts (now 81%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
RICE made the numbers' call on 7 of 11HOU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 13:19HOU 4th & 9 at RICE 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.2%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.3%
    60% to make
    Punt
    92.9%−0.3
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:19RICE 4th & 10 at RICE 35, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.6%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:32HOU 4th & 4 at HOU 36, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.0%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:20RICE 4th & 7 at RICE 20, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.1%−<0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.2%
    average punt
  5. Q1 6:51HOU 4th & 1 at HOU 42, up 3
    Close callPunted · 91.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.1%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:32HOU 4th & 6 at RICE 18, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.8%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.8%
    79% to make
    Punt
    89.0%−0.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 15:00HOU 4th & 2 at HOU 47, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    86.8%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:10RICE 4th & 4 at HOU 26, up 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 17.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.8%−0.2
    64% to make
    Punt
    14.9%−2.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:57RICE 4th & 4 at RICE 35, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.2%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.2%
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:16RICE 4th & 14 at RICE 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.1%−1.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.6%
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:47HOU 4th & 2 at HOU 30, tied
    Close callPunted · 79.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.7%−0.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:00RICE 4th & 5 at HOU 10, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.5%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.8%
    88% to make
    Punt
    39.5%−9.3
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:25RICE 4th & 5 at HOU 30, up 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 43.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.0%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.7%−0.3
    56% to make
    Punt
    40.4%−2.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:52RICE 4th & 7 at HOU 32, down 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 26.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.1%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.0%−<0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    24.2%−1.8
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:04RICE 4th & 7 at RICE 48, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.9%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.0%
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:37RICE 4th & 14 at HOU 29, down 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 8.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.3%
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    8.3%−<0.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    6.6%−1.7
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:51RICE 4th & 8 at HOU 8, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.0%
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    2.0%−<0.1
    90% to make
    Punt
    1.1%−1.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
RICE made the numbers' call on 3 of 3HOU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 1:17RICE Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:57HOU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    81.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:53RICE Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:34HOU Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    78.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    78.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:15RICE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 7:04HOU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 2:37HOU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 13:04HOU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 3:08HOU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
HOUDrive 1FG
8 plays · 36 yds · 1:4194% → 93%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
6.2%
Patrick Carr run for 3 yds to the Houst 39Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 39
0
6.2%
D'Eriq King run for no gain to the Houst 39Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+32
6.2%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 32 yds to the Rice 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
6.2%
Patrick Carr run for 1 yd to the Rice 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 28
0
6.2%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Marquez StevensonSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 28
0
6.2%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Romello BrookerSimilar
Q1 13:19
4TH & 9
OPP 28
+45
6.7%
Caden Novikoff 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q1 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
6.7%
Emmanuel Esukpa run for 5 yds to the Rice 30Similar
Q1 13:19
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-1
6.7%
Emmanuel Esukpa run for a loss of 1 yard to the Rice 29Similar
Q1 13:19
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+6
6.7%
Shawn Stankavage pass complete to Austin Trammell for 6 yds to the Rice 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
6.7%
Emmanuel Esukpa run for 5 yds to the Rice 40Similar
Q1 13:19
2ND & 5
OWN 40
-2
6.8%
Austin Walter run for a loss of 2 yards to the Rice 38Similar
Q1 13:19
3RD & 7
OWN 38
-3
6.7%
Shawn Stankavage sacked by Isaiah Chambers for a loss of 3 yards to the Rice 35Similar
Q1 13:19
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
6.7%
Jack Fox punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Houst 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q1 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
8.0%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Courtney Lark, broken up by Justin BickhamSimilar
Q1 9:32
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+4
8.0%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 4 yds to the Houst 34Similar
Q1 9:32
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+2
8.0%
Terence Williams run for 2 yds to the Houst 36Similar
Q1 9:32
4TH & 4
OWN 36
0
8.0%
Dane Roy punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Austin Trammell at the Rice 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
8.3%
Emmanuel Esukpa run for 2 yds to the Rice 19Similar
Q1 8:20
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+1
8.3%
Emmanuel Esukpa run for 1 yd to the Rice 20Similar
Q1 8:20
3RD & 7
OWN 20
0
8.3%
Shawn Stankavage pass incomplete to Aaron Cephus, broken up by Isaiah JohnsonSimilar
Q1 8:20
4TH & 7
OWN 20
0
8.2%
Jack Fox punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q1 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
8.8%
Bryson Smith run for 3 yds to the Houst 36Similar
Q1 6:51
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+4
8.8%
Bryson Smith run for 4 yds to the Houst 40Similar
Q1 6:51
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+2
8.7%
Terence Williams run for 2 yds to the Houst 42Similar
Q1 6:51
4TH & 1
OWN 42
0
8.9%
Dane Roy punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Austin Trammell at the Rice 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 6INT
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q1 5:23
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-1
9.3%
Emmanuel Esukpa run for a loss of 1 yard to the Rice 14Similar
Q1 5:23
2ND & 11
OWN 14
0
9.3%
Shawn Stankavage pass intercepted Emeke Egbule return for no gain to the Rice 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 7MISSED FG
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:0591% → 90%
Q1 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
9.3%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Marquez StevensonSimilar
Q1 4:37
2ND & 10
OPP 22
0
9.4%
Patrick Carr run for no gain to the Rice 22Similar
Q1 4:37
3RD & 10
OPP 22
+4
9.5%
D'Eriq King run for 4 yds to the Rice 18Similar
Q1 3:32
4TH & 6
OPP 18
+35
10.2%
Caden Novikoff 35 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 8TD
4 plays · 80 yds · 2:1510% → 13%
Q1 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+52
10.1%
Emmanuel Esukpa run for 52 yds to the Houst 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
10.8%
Austin Walter run for 2 yds to the Houst 26Similar
Q1 3:32
2ND & 8
OPP 26
-3
10.8%
Emmanuel Esukpa run for a loss of 3 yards to the Houst 29Similar
Q1 1:17
3RD & 11
OPP 29
+29
13.0%
Shawn Stankavage pass complete to Jordan Myers for 29 yds for a TD (Jack Fox KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 9DOWNS
8 plays · 20 yds · 1:1787% → 87%
Q1 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
12.6%
KING, D'Eriq pass complete to STEVENSON, Marq for 17 yards to the HOU42, out-of-bounds (CUMMINGS, J.), PENALTY HOU pass interference (CORBIN, Keith) 12 yards to the HOU13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:17
1ST & 22
OWN 13
+17
12.6%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Courtney Lark for 17 yds to the Houst 30Similar
Q1 1:17
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+9
12.4%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Romello Brooker for 9 yds to the Houst 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
12.2%
D'Eriq King run for 3 yds to the Houst 42Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 42
0
12.8%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Courtney LarkSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 42
+5
13.1%
D'Eriq King run for 5 yds to the Houst 47Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 47
-2
13.1%
Patrick Carr run for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 10FG
8 plays · 19 yds · 4:2414% → 20%
Q2 14:34
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
14.4%
Shawn Stankavage run for 6 yds to the Houst 39Similar
Q2 14:34
2ND & 4
OPP 39
-5
14.4%
RICE Penalty, false start (Shea Baker) to the Houst 44Similar
Q2 14:34
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+8
14.4%
Austin Walter run for 8 yds to the Houst 36Similar
Q2 14:34
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+4
14.3%
Emmanuel Esukpa run for 4 yds to the Houst 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:34
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
14.6%
Shawn Stankavage pass complete to Austin Trammell for 9 yds to the Houst 23Similar
Q2 14:34
2ND & 1
OPP 23
-4
14.6%
Austin Walter run for a loss of 4 yards to the Houst 27Similar
Q2 14:34
3RD & 5
OPP 27
+1
14.3%
Austin Walter run for 1 yd to the Houst 26Similar
Q2 10:10
4TH & 4
OPP 26
+44
20.0%
Jack Fox 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 11TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:1381% → 83%
Q2 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
19.5%
Terence Williams run for 4 yds to the Houst 29Similar
Q2 10:10
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
19.2%
D'Eriq King run for 5 yds to the Houst 34Similar
Q2 10:10
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
19.1%
Terence Williams run for 2 yds to the Houst 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
19.0%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 7 yds to the Houst 43Similar
Q2 10:10
2ND & 3
OWN 43
0
18.5%
Terence Williams run for no gain to the Houst 43Similar
Q2 10:10
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+6
18.6%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Romello Brooker for 6 yds to the Houst 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+51
16.8%
Marquez Stevenson run for 51 yds for a TD (Caden Novikoff PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:0019% → 18%
Q2 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-5
18.9%
RICE Penalty, false start (Sam Pierce) to the Rice 24Similar
Q2 7:57
1ST & 15
OWN 24
+2
18.6%
Austin Walter run for 2 yds to the Rice 26Similar
Q2 7:57
2ND & 13
OWN 26
+9
18.6%
Jackson Tyner pass complete to Austin Trammell for 9 yds to the Rice 35Similar
Q2 7:57
3RD & 4
OWN 35
0
18.6%
Jackson Tyner pass incomplete to Justin Bickham, broken up by Deontay AndersonSimilar
Q2 7:57
4TH & 4
OWN 35
0
18.1%
Jack Fox punt for 55 yds , Bryson Smith returns for no gain to the Houst 8 Bryson Smith fumbled, recovered by Rice Campbell RiddleSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 13TD
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2722% → 29%
Q2 6:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
22.0%
Austin Walter run for 5 yds to the Houst 3Similar
Q2 6:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
22.0%
Emmanuel Esukpa run for 1 yd to the Houst 2Similar
Q2 4:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
28.9%
Shawn Stankavage pass complete to Jaeger Bull for 2 yds for a TD (Jack Fox KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 14TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:1972% → 84%
Q2 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
28.1%
Mulbah Car run for 2 yds to the Houst 27Similar
Q2 4:53
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+7
27.8%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Courtney Lark for 7 yds to the Houst 34Similar
Q2 4:53
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
27.3%
Mulbah Car run for 2 yds to the Houst 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+24
27.1%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Keith Corbin for 24 yds to the Rice 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:34
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
16.4%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Courtney Lark for 40 yds for a TD (D'Eriq King pass to Bryson Smith for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 0:1820% → 19%
Q2 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
20.4%
Shawn Stankavage pass incomplete to Austin TrammellSimilar
Q2 3:34
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
20.2%
Emmanuel Esukpa run for 3 yds to the Rice 28Similar
Q2 3:16
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-7
20.1%
Shawn Stankavage sacked by Isaiah Chambers for a loss of 7 yards to the Rice 21Similar
Q2 3:16
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
19.4%
Jack Fox punt for 57 yds, fair catch by Bryson Smith at the Houst 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:3981% → 80%
Q2 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
19.0%
Terence Williams run for 3 yds to the Houst 25Similar
Q2 2:26
2ND & 7
OWN 25
0
18.9%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Courtney LarkSimilar
Q2 2:26
3RD & 7
OWN 25
+5
19.7%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Jeremy Singleton for 5 yds to the Houst 30Similar
Q2 1:47
4TH & 2
OWN 30
+58
20.1%
Dane Roy punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Austin Trammell at the RICE 24 RICE Penalty, personal foul (12 Yards) to the Rice 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 17TD
12 plays · 88 yds · 1:2622% → 36%
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+18
21.7%
Austin Walter run for 3 yds to the Rice 15 for a 1ST down HOUSTON Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Austin Robinson) to the Rice 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
21.9%
Shawn Stankavage pass complete to Aaron Cephus for 4 yds to the Rice 34Similar
Q2 1:41
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+14
22.4%
Shawn Stankavage pass complete to Austin Trammell for 14 yds to the Rice 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
23.7%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:41
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
23.3%
Shawn Stankavage pass incomplete to Jordan MyersSimilar
Q2 1:41
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+15
21.9%
Shawn Stankavage pass complete to Austin Trammell for 15 yds to the Houst 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
24.2%
Shawn Stankavage pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:41
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+21
24.0%
Austin Walter run for 21 yds to the Houst 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+15
24.8%
Shawn Stankavage pass complete to Aaron Cephus for 15 yds to the Houst 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
26.4%
STANKAVAGE, S. pass incomplete to CEPHUS, Aaron (JOHNSON, Isaiah), PENALTY HOU pass interference (JOHNSON, Isaiah) 0 yards to the HOU1, 1ST DOWN RICE, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
36.0%
Shawn Stankavage pass complete to Brendan Harmon for 1 yd for a TD (Jack Fox KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 18END OF HALF
4 plays · 23 yds · 0:0969% → 70%
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+23
31.0%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Keith Corbin for 23 yds to the Rice 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
30.3%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Courtney Lark, broken up by Jorian ClarkSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 19FG
14 plays · 62 yds · 7:0034% → 52%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
34.0%
Emmanuel Esukpa run for 3 yds to the Rice 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+1
34.1%
Emmanuel Esukpa run for 1 yd to the Rice 32Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 32
+7
33.3%
Shawn Stankavage pass complete to Austin Trammell for 7 yds to the Rice 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
35.2%
Austin Walter run for 2 yds to the Rice 41Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+1
35.7%
Austin Walter run for 1 yd to the Rice 42Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 42
+8
34.2%
Shawn Stankavage pass complete to Austin Walter for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+2
36.2%
Austin Walter run for 2 yds to the Houst 48Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+1
36.2%
Aston Walter run for 1 yd to the Houst 47Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 47
+32
35.1%
Shawn Stankavage pass complete to Aaron Cephus for 32 yds to the Houst 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-1
36.6%
Austin Walter run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 16Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 16
0
36.5%
Shawn Stankavage pass incomplete to Aaron Cephus, broken up by Isaiah JohnsonSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 16
+6
35.4%
Austin Walter run for 6 yds to the Houst 10Similar
Q3 8:00
4TH & 5
OPP 10
+28
52.3%
Haden Tobola 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 20TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:5648% → 70%
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+46
51.7%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Keith Corbin for 46 yds to the Rice 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+25
46.4%
Patrick Carr run for 25 yds to the Rice 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
30.1%
D'Eriq King run for 4 yds for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 21MISSED FG
8 plays · 48 yds · 3:3937% → 43%
Q3 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
37.3%
Shawn Stankavage pass complete to Giovanni Gentosi for 4 yds to the Rice 26Similar
Q3 7:04
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+3
37.4%
Emmanuel Esukpa run for 3 yds to the Rice 29Similar
Q3 7:04
3RD & 3
OWN 29
+36
36.4%
Jackson Tyner pass complete to Austin Walter for 36 yds to the Houst 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:04
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
42.2%
Austin Walter run for 1 yd to the Houst 34Similar
Q3 7:04
2ND & 9
OPP 34
0
42.0%
Jackson Tyner pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:04
3RD & 9
OPP 34
+4
40.3%
Jackson Tyner pass complete to Rhett Cardwell for 4 yds to the Houst 30Similar
Q3 3:25
4TH & 5
OPP 30
+48
43.0%
Jack Fox 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 22TD
3 plays · 70 yds · 0:4860% → 81%
Q3 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
40.3%
Patrick Carr run for 6 yds to the Houst 36Similar
Q3 3:25
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+7
38.2%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 7 yds to the Houst 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+57
19.2%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 57 yds for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 23MISSED FG
8 plays · 43 yds · 2:4523% → 26%
Q3 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
23.3%
Emmanuel Esukpa run for 1 yd to the Rice 26Similar
Q3 2:37
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
23.2%
Jackson Tyner pass incomplete to Jaeger Bull, broken up by Garrett DavisSimilar
Q3 2:37
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+39
22.0%
Jackson Tyner pass complete to Aaron Cephus for 39 yds to the Houst 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
28.4%
Emmanuel Esukpa run for 2 yds to the Houst 33Similar
Q3 2:37
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+1
28.5%
Aston Walter run for 1 yd to the Houst 32Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 32
0
28.7%
Jackson Tyner pass incomplete to Jaeger Bull, broken up by Austin RobinsonSimilar
Q4 14:52
4TH & 7
OPP 32
+50
26.0%
Jack Fox 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 24TD
6 plays · 68 yds · 1:4879% → 90%
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+25
21.5%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Bryson Smith for 25 yds to the Rice 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
19.6%
Bryson Smith run for 1 yd to the Rice 42Similar
Q4 14:52
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+4
19.6%
Patrick Carr run for 4 yds to the Rice 38Similar
Q4 14:52
3RD & 5
OPP 38
+5
20.0%
KING, D'Eriq pass incomplete to SMITH, Bryson (CUMMINGS, J.), PENALTY RICE pass interference (CUMMINGS, J.) 5 yards to the RICE33, 1ST DOWN HOU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+15
18.7%
Bryson Smith run for 15 yds to the Rice 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:04
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
9.6%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Courtney Lark for 18 yds for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0013% → 12%
Q4 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
13.1%
Austin Walter run for 1 yd to the Rice 46Similar
Q4 13:04
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+3
12.9%
Emmanuel Esukpa run for 3 yds to the Rice 49Similar
Q4 13:04
3RD & 6
OWN 49
-1
12.6%
Shawn Stankavage sacked by Isaiah Chambers for a loss of 1 yard to the Rice 48Similar
Q4 13:04
4TH & 7
OWN 48
0
11.6%
Jack Fox punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 26FUMBLE
6 plays · 30 yds · 0:0090% → 91%
Q4 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+25
9.8%
Mulbah Car run for 25 yds to the Houst 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
8.9%
Mulbah Car run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 10:46
2ND & 5
50
+4
8.8%
Mulbah Car run for 4 yds to the Rice 46Similar
Q4 10:46
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+3
8.7%
Mulbah Car run for 3 yds to the Rice 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:46
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
8.8%
Mulbah Car run for no gain to the Rice 43Similar
Q4 10:46
2ND & 10
OPP 43
-2
8.8%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Terry Mark for a loss of 2 yards Terry Mark fumbled, forced by Justin Bickham, recovered by Rice Houston Robert , return to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 27MISSED FG
6 plays · 21 yds · 3:0812% → 8%
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
50
+14
11.8%
Aston Walter run for 14 yds to the Houst 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+11
12.4%
Austin Walter run for 11 yds to the Houst 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
13.6%
Austin Walter run for 2 yds to the Houst 23Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 8
OPP 23
-6
13.6%
Austin Walter run for a loss of 6 yards to the Houst 29Similar
Q4 8:45
3RD & 14
OPP 29
0
11.2%
Shawn Stankavage pass incomplete to Austin Trammell, broken up by Austin RobinsonSimilar
Q4 5:37
4TH & 14
OPP 29
+47
8.0%
Haden Tobola 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 28TD
7 plays · 71 yds · 2:2992% → 99%
Q4 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
7.6%
Terence Williams run for 3 yds to the Houst 32Similar
Q4 5:37
2ND & 12
OWN 27
+12
7.6%
D'Eriq King run for 12 yds to the Houst 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
7.1%
Marquez Stevenson run for 9 yds to the Houst 48Similar
Q4 5:37
2ND & 1
OWN 48
0
6.9%
Bryson Smith pass complete to D'Eriq King for no gain to the Houst 48Similar
Q4 5:37
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+15
7.4%
KING, D'Eriq pass incomplete to SMITH, Bryson (NYAKWOL, George), PENALTY RICE pass interference (NYAKWOL, George) 15 yards to the RICE37, 1ST DOWN HOU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:37
2ND & 7
OWN 32
-5
7.7%
HOUSTON Penalty, false start (Mason Denley) to the Houst 27Similar
Q4 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+37
1.4%
Patrick Carr run for 37 yds for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RICEDrive 29DOWNS
15 plays · 64 yds · 2:172% → 2%
Q4 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
2.0%
Shawn Stankavage pass incomplete to Austin Trammell, broken up by Roman BrownSimilar
Q4 3:08
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+6
1.9%
STANKAVAGE, S. pass incomplete to WALTER, Austin (WILLIAMS, Joeal), PENALTY HOU pass interference (WILLIAMS, Joeal) 6 yards to the RICE34, 1ST DOWN RICE, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
2.0%
Shawn Stankavage pass complete to Brendan Harmon for 5 yds to the Rice 39Similar
Q4 3:08
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+5
2.0%
Shawn Stankavage pass complete to Aaron Cephus for 5 yds to the Rice 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+12
2.0%
Shawn Stankavage pass complete to Austin Walter for 12 yds to the Houst 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
2.2%
Shawn Stankavage pass complete to Austin Trammell for 2 yds to the Houst 42Similar
Q4 3:08
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+5
2.2%
Shawn Stankavage pass complete to Brendan Harmon for 5 yds to the Houst 37Similar
Q4 3:08
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+15
2.3%
Shawn Stankavage pass complete to Aston Walter for 15 yds to the Houst 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+14
2.1%
Shawn Stankavage pass complete to Austin Walter for 14 yds to the Houst 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
2.1%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
2.1%
Shawn Stankavage pass incomplete to Aaron Cephus, broken up by Nick WatkinsSimilar
Q4 0:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
2.0%
Shawn Stankavage pass incomplete to Austin Trammell, broken up by Emeke EgbuleSimilar
Q4 0:51
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
0
1.8%
Shawn Stankavage pass incomplete to Aaron CephusSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 30END OF GAME
1 play · 10 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+10
1.0%
Kevrin Justice run for 10 yds to the Houst 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:37
D'Eriq King pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 57 yds for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)
-19
FG · Q3 8:00
Haden Tobola 28 yd FG GOOD
+17
TD · Q3 7:04
D'Eriq King run for 4 yds for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)
-16.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com