Try the model
SMU

SMU 23 at North Texas 46

UNT
2018 · Week 1 · Sep 1, 2018 · DATCU Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UNT
modelUNT aheadSMU aheadconfidence bandkey playUNT scoreSMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:09 · Christian Hosley run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 24
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 8:34: Mason Fine pass complete to Jalen Guyton for 15 yds for a TD (Cole Hedlund KICK) — UNT win probability +2.8 pts (now 62%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 5:37: Ben Hicks pass intercepted for a TD Kemon Hall return for 36 yds for a TD (Cole Hedlund KICK) — UNT win probability +4.4 pts (now 66%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 11:47: Cole Hedlund 40 yd FG GOOD — UNT win probability +5.8 pts (now 77%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  4. FG · Q2 0:00: Cole Hedlund 18 yd FG GOOD — UNT win probability +8.5 pts (now 94%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 11:17: Mason Fine pass complete to Nic Smith for 5 yds for a TD (Cole Hedlund KICK) — UNT win probability +6.0 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UNT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UNT made the numbers' call on 6 of 8SMU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00SMU 4th & 24 at SMU 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.1%−0.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:46UNT 4th & 1 at SMU 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    60.6%−0.2
    34% to make
    Punt
    60.6%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:34SMU 4th & 10 at SMU 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.5%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:35UNT 4th & 13 at UNT 24, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.6%−0.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.1%
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:37SMU 4th & 3 at SMU 32, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.0%−0.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:47UNT 4th & 19 at SMU 23, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.4%−2.3
    10% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.8%
    70% to make
    Punt
    68.2%−5.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:47SMU 4th & 3 at SMU 44, down 17
    Close callPunted · 23.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.5%−0.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:11UNT 4th & 8 at UNT 32, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.2%−1.4
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:27SMU 4th & 20 at SMU 47, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.3%−2.9
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.2%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:48UNT 4th & 5 at SMU 29, up 17
    Close callWent for it · 85.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.8%−0.6
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    85.4%
    58% to make
    Punt
    80.2%−5.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:17SMU 4th & 5 at SMU 30, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.6%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:04SMU 4th & 6 at SMU 29, down 33
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:19UNT 4th & 7 at SMU 24, up 33
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.7%
    68% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 15:00SMU 4th & 17 at SMU 40, down 36
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:11UNT 4th & 1 at SMU 37, up 36
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    99.6%−0.2
    40% to make
    Punt
    99.6%−0.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:29UNT 4th & 4 at SMU 34, up 29
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.9%−0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNT made the numbers' call on 3 of 4SMU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 8:34UNT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:37UNT Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 11:17UNT Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:04UNT Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 8:11SMU Touchdown, down 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 1:41SMU Touchdown, down 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    0.2%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    0.3%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 1:09SMU Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    0.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    0.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SMUDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · -14 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
59.2%
Ben Hicks pass complete to CJ Sanders for 6 yds to the SMU 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-5
59.2%
SMU Penalty, false start (Larry Hughes) to the SMU 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
59.2%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Jr. RobersonSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-10
59.2%
Ben Hicks sacked by E.J. Ejiya for a loss of 10 yards to the SMU 16Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 19
OWN 16
-5
59.2%
SMU Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the SMU 11Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 24
OWN 11
+4
59.2%
Jamie Sackville punt for 42 yds , Jaelon Darden returns for 4 yds to the SMU 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 2TD
12 plays · 49 yds · 5:1259% → 62%
Q1 13:46
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
59.4%
Mason Fine pass complete to Rico Bussey Jr. for 5 yds to the SMU 44Similar
Q1 13:46
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+3
59.4%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 3 yds to the SMU 41Similar
Q1 13:46
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+1
59.4%
Loren Easly run for 1 yd to the SMU 40Similar
Q1 13:46
4TH & 1
OPP 40
+4
59.3%
Loren Easly run for 4 yds to the SMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:46
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-8
59.4%
Mason Fine sacked by Patrick Nelson and Delontae Scott for a loss of 8 yards to the SMU 44Similar
Q1 13:46
2ND & 18
OPP 44
-10
59.3%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the NoTex 46Similar
Q1 13:46
2ND & 28
OWN 46
+3
59.3%
Mason Fine pass complete to DeAndre Torrey for 3 yds to the NoTex 49Similar
Q1 13:46
3RD & 25
OWN 49
+15
59.2%
SMU Penalty, personal foul (Trevor Denbow) to the SMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:46
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+11
59.4%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jalen Guyton for 11 yds to the SMU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:46
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+13
59.4%
Mason Fine pass complete to Kelvin Smith for 13 yds to the SMU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:46
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-3
59.4%
Mason Fine run for a loss of 3 yards to the SMU 15Similar
Q1 8:34
2ND & 13
OPP 15
+15
62.3%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jalen Guyton for 15 yds for a TD (Cole Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0039% → 38%
Q1 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
61.5%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to James ProcheSimilar
Q1 8:34
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
61.6%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for no gain to the SMU 25Similar
Q1 8:34
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
61.8%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to James ProcheSimilar
Q1 8:34
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
62.0%
Jamie Sackville punt for 48 yds, downed at the NoTex 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0062% → 61%
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
62.1%
Mason Fine pass complete to Kelvin Smith for 4 yds to the NoTex 31Similar
Q1 7:35
2ND & 6
OWN 31
-2
62.2%
Mason Fine pass complete to Rico Bussey Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the NoTex 29Similar
Q1 7:35
3RD & 8
OWN 29
-5
61.8%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the NoTex 24Similar
Q1 7:35
3RD & 13
OWN 24
0
61.7%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Rico Bussey Jr.Similar
Q1 7:35
4TH & 13
OWN 24
+8
61.4%
Alvin Kenworthy punt for 51 yds , James Proche returns for 8 yds to the SMU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 5INT TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q1 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+36
65.9%
Ben Hicks pass intercepted for a TD Kemon Hall return for 36 yds for a TD (Cole Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q1 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
66.0%
Braeden West run for 4 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q1 5:37
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
65.9%
Xavier Jones run for 3 yds to the SMU 32Similar
Q1 5:37
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
65.9%
Ben Hicks run for no gain to the SMU 32Similar
Q1 5:37
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
66.1%
Jamie Sackville punt for 50 yds, downed at the NoTex 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 7FG
18 plays · 59 yds · 7:0868% → 77%
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-5
68.2%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NoTex 13Similar
Q1 3:55
1ST & 15
OWN 13
-2
68.1%
Loren Easly run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoTex 11Similar
Q1 3:55
2ND & 17
OWN 11
0
68.1%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Michael Lawrence, broken up by Rodney ClemonsSimilar
Q1 3:55
3RD & 17
OWN 11
+20
67.7%
Mason Fine pass complete to Rico Bussey Jr. for 20 yds to the NoTex 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
68.2%
DeAndre Torrey run for 8 yds to the NoTex 39Similar
Q1 3:55
2ND & 2
OWN 39
-2
68.8%
DeAndre Torrey run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoTex 37Similar
Q1 3:55
3RD & 4
OWN 37
+10
68.2%
Mason Fine pass complete to Rico Bussey Jr. for 10 yds to the NoTex 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
68.9%
Loren Easly run for 7 yds to the SMU 46Similar
Q1 3:55
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+5
68.9%
Loren Easly run for 5 yds to the SMU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
69.0%
Mason Fine pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:55
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+16
68.9%
Mason Fine pass complete to Rico Bussey Jr. for 16 yds to the SMU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
71.8%
Nic Smith run for 1 yd to the SMU 24Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+1
71.8%
Loren Easly run for 1 yd to the SMU 23Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 23
+9
71.3%
Mason Fine pass complete to Evan Johnson for 9 yds to the SMU 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
71.8%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Jalen GuytonSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+1
71.8%
Mason Fine run for 1 yd to the SMU 13Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 13
-10
71.4%
Mason Fine sacked by Patrick Nelson for a loss of 10 yards to the SMU 23Similar
Q2 11:47
4TH & 19
OPP 23
+40
77.1%
Cole Hedlund 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0025% → 24%
Q2 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
75.5%
Braeden West run for 4 yds to the SMU 41Similar
Q2 11:47
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+3
75.2%
Braeden West run for 3 yds to the SMU 44Similar
Q2 11:47
3RD & 3
OWN 44
0
75.0%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to James ProcheSimilar
Q2 11:47
4TH & 3
OWN 44
0
75.7%
Ben Hicks punt for 48 yds, downed at the NoTex 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 9PUNT
10 plays · 24 yds · 0:3378% → 78%
Q2 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+6
77.9%
Loren Easly run for 6 yds to the NoTex 14Similar
Q2 10:44
2ND & 4
OWN 14
0
78.6%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Michael LawrenceSimilar
Q2 10:11
3RD & 4
OWN 14
+5
78.5%
Mason Fine pass complete to Kelvin Smith for 5 yds to the NoTex 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
79.1%
Nic Smith run for 1 yd to the NoTex 20Similar
Q2 10:11
2ND & 9
OWN 20
+10
79.0%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 10 yds to the NoTex 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:11
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
79.1%
Loren Easly run for 3 yds to the NoTex 33Similar
Q2 10:11
2ND & 7
OWN 33
-1
79.1%
Nic Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 32Similar
Q2 10:11
3RD & 8
OWN 32
0
78.6%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Jalen GuytonSimilar
Q2 10:11
4TH & 8
OWN 32
0
78.1%
Alvin Kenworthy punt for 35 yds, fair catch by James Proche at the SMU 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:0022% → 21%
Q2 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
78.3%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Braeden West for 3 yds to the SMU 36Similar
Q2 7:27
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+3
78.0%
Braeden West run for 3 yds to the SMU 39Similar
Q2 7:27
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+18
78.2%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 18 yds to the NoTex 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:27
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
77.2%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Jr. RobersonSimilar
Q2 7:27
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
77.6%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to CJ SandersSimilar
Q2 7:27
3RD & 10
OPP 43
-10
78.0%
Ben Hicks sacked by Brandon Garner for a loss of 10 yards to the SMU 47Similar
Q2 7:27
4TH & 20
OWN 47
0
79.0%
Jamie Sackville punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Jaelon Darden at the NoTex 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 11FG
19 plays · 93 yds · 5:2283% → 94%
Q2 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+8
82.8%
Mason Fine pass complete to Rico Bussey Jr. for 8 yds to the NoTex 14Similar
Q2 5:22
2ND & 2
OWN 14
+1
82.9%
Mason Fine run for 1 yd to the NoTex 15Similar
Q2 5:22
3RD & 1
OWN 15
+8
82.5%
Mason Fine pass complete to Rico Bussey Jr. for 8 yds to the NoTex 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
83.0%
Loren Easly run for 7 yds to the NoTex 30Similar
Q2 5:22
2ND & 3
OWN 30
-1
83.1%
Loren Easly run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 29Similar
Q2 5:22
3RD & 4
OWN 29
+15
82.6%
Mason Fine pass complete to Kelvin Smith for 15 yds to the NoTex 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+22
83.5%
Mason Fine pass complete to Rico Bussey Jr. for 22 yds to the SMU 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:22
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-3
83.5%
Nic Smith run for a loss of 3 yards to the SMU 37Similar
Q2 5:22
2ND & 13
OPP 37
-1
83.3%
Mason Fine pass complete to Nic Smith for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 38Similar
Q2 5:22
3RD & 14
OPP 38
+9
82.9%
Mason Fine pass complete to Evan Johnson for 9 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q2 0:48
4TH & 5
OPP 29
+6
85.9%
Mason Fine pass complete to Evan Johnson for 6 yds to the SMU 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+22
87.1%
Mason Fine pass complete to Rico Bussey Jr. for 22 yds to the SMU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
87.3%
Loren Easly run for no gain to the SMU 1Similar
Q2 0:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
86.1%
Loren Easly run for no gain to the SMU 1Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+18
93.9%
Cole Hedlund 18 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 12TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:4392% → 99%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
92.2%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 8 yds to the NoTex 33Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+2
92.3%
Nic Smith run for 2 yds to the NoTex 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+27
92.3%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 27 yds to the SMU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+18
92.6%
Nic Smith run for 18 yds to the SMU 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
92.7%
Nic Smith run for 2 yds to the SMU 18Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 18
-15
92.7%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, Offensive pass interference (Jalen Guyton) to the SMU 33Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 23
OPP 33
+29
92.6%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jalen Guyton for 29 yds to the SMU 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
92.7%
Nic Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 5Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
92.7%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Jalen Guyton, broken up by Noah WesterfieldSimilar
Q3 11:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
98.7%
Mason Fine pass complete to Nic Smith for 5 yds for a TD (Cole Hedlund KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:001% → 2%
Q3 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
98.6%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Hunter Thedford for 5 yds to the SMU 30Similar
Q3 11:17
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
98.4%
Xavier Jones run for no gain to the SMU 30Similar
Q3 11:17
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
98.4%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Jr. RobersonSimilar
Q3 11:17
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
98.5%
Jamie Sackville punt for 65 yds, downed at the NoTex 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 14TD
10 plays · 95 yds · 4:0299% → 99%
Q3 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+2
98.8%
Nic Smith run for 2 yds to the NoTex 7Similar
Q3 10:06
2ND & 8
OWN 7
+10
98.8%
Mason Fine pass complete to Keegan Brewer for 10 yds to the NoTex 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+12
98.8%
Mason Fine pass complete to Greg White for 12 yds to the NoTex 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
98.8%
Nic Smith run for 3 yds to the NoTex 32Similar
Q3 10:06
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+10
98.8%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jalen Guyton for 10 yds to the NoTex 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
98.9%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Jalen Guyton, broken up by Kevin JohnsonSimilar
Q3 10:06
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+17
98.9%
Mason Fine pass complete to Keegan Brewer for 17 yds to the SMU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+29
98.9%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 29 yds to the SMU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-5
98.9%
NORTH TEXAS Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass (Kelvin Smith) to the SMU 17Similar
Q3 6:04
1ST & 15
OPP 17
+17
99.4%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jalen Guyton for 17 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
99.4%
Ben Hicks sacked by Roderick Young for a loss of 7 yards to the SMU 18Similar
Q3 6:04
2ND & 17
OWN 18
0
99.4%
Ben Hicks pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:04
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+11
99.4%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Judah Bell for 11 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q3 6:04
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
99.4%
Jamie Sackville punt for 47 yds, downed at the NoTex 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 16FG
11 plays · 52 yds · 4:13100% → 100%
Q3 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
99.5%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Michael LawrenceSimilar
Q3 4:32
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+1
99.4%
Mason Fine pass complete to Kelvin Smith for 1 yd to the NoTex 25Similar
Q3 4:32
3RD & 9
OWN 25
+19
99.4%
Mason Fine pass complete to Michael Lawrence for 19 yds to the NoTex 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-1
99.5%
Nic Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 43Similar
Q3 4:32
2ND & 11
OWN 43
+4
99.5%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jaelon Darden for 4 yds to the NoTex 47Similar
Q3 4:32
3RD & 7
OWN 47
+15
99.5%
SMU Penalty, roughing passer (Richard Moore) to the SMU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+11
99.5%
Mason Fine pass complete to Nic Smith for 11 yds to the SMU 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
99.5%
Nic Smith run for 5 yds to the SMU 22Similar
Q3 4:32
2ND & 5
OPP 22
-2
99.5%
Nic Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 24Similar
Q3 4:32
3RD & 7
OPP 24
0
99.5%
Mason Fine pass incomplete to Kelvin SmithSimilar
Q3 0:19
4TH & 7
OPP 24
+41
99.7%
Cole Hedlund 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 17PUNT
9 plays · 15 yds · 0:190% → 0%
Q3 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
99.8%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Jr. Roberson for 12 yds to the SMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
99.8%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 1 yd to the SMU 38Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+7
99.8%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Jr. Roberson for 7 yds to the SMU 45Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+2
99.8%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 2 yds to the SMU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-7
99.8%
Ben Hicks sacked by E.J. Ejiya for a loss of 7 yards to the SMU 40 Ben Hicks fumbled, recovered by SMU Ben Hicks , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 17
OWN 40
0
99.8%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Judah BellSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 17
OWN 40
0
99.8%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to James ProcheSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 17
OWN 40
+1
99.8%
Jamie Sackville punt for 34 yds , Keegan Brewer returns for 1 yd to the NoTex 27 Keegan Brewer fumbled, forced by TEAM,Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 18DOWNS
7 plays · 36 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
99.8%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jalen Guyton for 5 yds to the NoTex 32Similar
Q4 13:11
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+8
99.8%
Mason Fine pass complete to Jalen Guyton for 8 yds to the NoTex 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+14
99.8%
Mason Fine pass complete to Keegan Brewer for 14 yds to the SMU 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
99.8%
Mason Fine pass complete to Greg White for 7 yds to the SMU 39Similar
Q4 13:11
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+1
99.8%
Nic Smith run for 1 yd to the SMU 38Similar
Q4 13:11
3RD & 2
OPP 38
+1
99.8%
Nic Smith run for 1 yd to the SMU 37Similar
Q4 13:11
4TH & 1
OPP 37
0
99.8%
Nic Smith run for no gain to the SMU 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 19TD
6 plays · 63 yds · 1:390% → 0%
Q4 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
99.9%
Ben Hicks pass incomplete to Braeden WestSimilar
Q4 9:50
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+11
99.9%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Jr. Roberson for 11 yds to the SMU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
99.9%
Ben Hicks run for 6 yds to the NoTex 46Similar
Q4 9:50
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+4
99.9%
Braeden West run for 4 yds to the NoTex 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+37
99.9%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Jr. Roberson for 37 yds to the NoTex 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.9%
Braeden West run for 5 yds for a TD (Will Moore KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 20FG
9 plays · 40 yds · 4:42100% → 100%
Q4 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
99.9%
Nic Smith run for 3 yds to the NoTex 29Similar
Q4 8:11
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+3
99.9%
Christian Hosley run for 3 yds to the NoTex 32Similar
Q4 8:11
3RD & 4
OWN 32
+17
99.9%
Quinn Shanbour pass complete to Christian Hosley for 17 yds to the NoTex 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
99.9%
Quinn Shanbour run for 11 yds to the SMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
99.9%
Christian Hosley run for 3 yds to the SMU 37Similar
Q4 8:11
2ND & 7
OPP 37
0
99.9%
Christian Hosley run for no gain to the SMU 37Similar
Q4 8:11
3RD & 7
OPP 37
+3
99.9%
Quinn Shanbour run for 3 yds to the SMU 34Similar
Q4 3:29
4TH & 4
OPP 34
+51
99.9%
Cole Hedlund 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 21TD
6 plays · 74 yds · 1:400% → 1%
Q4 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
100.0%
Braeden West run for 2 yds to the SMU 28Similar
Q4 3:21
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+12
100.0%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Braeden West for 12 yds to the SMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
100.0%
Braeden West run for 1 yd to the SMU 41Similar
Q4 1:41
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+59
99.5%
Ben Hicks pass complete to James Proche for 59 yds for a TD (Ben Hicks pass to Jr. Roberson for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 23TD
2 plays · 71 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+71
99.5%
Ben Hicks pass complete to Braeden West for 71 yds for a TD (Ben Hicks pass to James Proche for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNTDrive 24END OF GAME
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.7%
Christian Hosley run for no gain to the NoTex 25Similar
Q4 1:09
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
99.7%
Christian Hosley run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoTex 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q2 0:00
Cole Hedlund 18 yd FG GOOD
+8.5
TD · Q3 11:17
Mason Fine pass complete to Nic Smith for 5 yds for a TD (Cole Hedlund KICK)
+6
FG · Q2 11:47
Cole Hedlund 40 yd FG GOOD
+5.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com