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LT

Louisiana Tech 30 at South Alabama 26

USA
2018 · Week 1 · Sep 1, 2018 · Ladd Peebles Stadium
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Win probability · USA
modelUSA aheadLT aheadconfidence bandkey playUSA scoreLT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 5:14 · Tra Minter run for 2 yds to the LaTch 30 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 127Pregame prior−10.1Home team on offense−13.7Score differential−6.0Garbage-time factor−4.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:34: J'Mar Smith pass complete to Bobby Holly for 1 yd for a TD — LT win probability +5.8 pts (now 83%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:59: Cole Garvin pass complete to Kawaan Baker for 3 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed) — USA win probability +7.9 pts (now 24%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 8:18: Maurice Mayo run for 5 yds for a TD (Gavin Patterson KICK) — USA win probability +23.1 pts (now 42%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  4. TD · Q4 2:19: J'Mar Smith pass complete to Adrian Hardy for 8 yds for a TD (Bailey Hale KICK) — LT win probability +10.5 pts (now 95%) (top driver: LT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:11: Kawaan Baker run for 4 yds for a TD SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the LaTch 8 (Gavin Patterson PAT BLOCKED) — USA win probability +28.7 pts (now 34%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USA made the numbers' call on 8 of 9LT made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00USA 4th & 3 at LT 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    25.6%−0.1
    32% to make
    Punt
    25.7%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:53LT 4th & 7 at USA 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.8%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    73.7%−0.1
    36% to make
    Punt
    73.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 12:17USA 4th & 1 at USA 42, tied
    Close callPunted · 27.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.0%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:41USA 4th & 8 at USA 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.4%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.6%
    average punt
  5. Q1 7:22LT 4th & 4 at LT 38, up 7
    Close callPunted · 73.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00LT 4th & 12 at USA 34, up 7
    Close callWent for it · 72.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.1%−0.4
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    72.4%
    47% to make
    Punt
    72.1%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:18USA 4th & 7 at USA 37, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.6%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 12:19LT 4th & 23 at LT 13, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.5%−2.8
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:21LT 4th & 27 at USA 45, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.0%−1.7
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    70.8%−0.9
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    71.7%
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:59USA 4th & 11 at USA 7, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.6%−1.6
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.2%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:34LT 4th & 1 at USA 1, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.5%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    70.6%−2.0
    94% to make
    Punt
    65.1%−7.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:42LT 4th & 6 at USA 6, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.0%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.3%
    91% to make
    Punt
    74.0%−7.3
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:39USA 4th & 1 at LT 33, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    14.7%−2.5
    49% to make
    Punt
    13.9%−3.3
    average punt
  14. Q3 9:39USA 4th & 1 at LT 11, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    15.1%−1.8
    87% to make
    Punt
    9.1%−7.8
    average punt
  15. Q3 6:59LT 4th & 2 at LT 20, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 76.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.5%−1.0
    average punt
  16. Q3 5:14USA 4th & 2 at LT 32, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    20.4%−1.8
    51% to make
    Punt
    19.1%−3.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 15:00LT 4th & 1 at USA 45, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    80.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    75.6%−4.8
    25% to make
    Punt
    77.3%−3.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:19USA 4th & 2 at USA 37, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.9%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USA made the numbers' call on 1 of 4LT made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 8:41LT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:54USA Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:34LT Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:59USA Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    24.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    23.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 8:18USA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.9%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.4%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:19LT Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.0%−0.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 1:11USA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 3.0 ptsKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    11.5%−3.0
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USADrive 1DOWNS
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-3
23.0%
Tra Minter run for a loss of 3 yards to the SAlab 49Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 49
+5
23.0%
Garvin, Cole pass incomplete to McCray, Jordan, PENALTY LATECH offside defense 5 yards to the LATECH46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 46
+5
23.0%
Tra Minter run for 5 yds to the LaTch 41Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 41
-3
23.0%
Tra Minter run for a loss of 3 yards to the LaTch 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 49
0
23.0%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to Jordan McCraySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 2INT
5 plays · 17 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q1 13:53
4TH & 7
OPP 39
+15
23.5%
J'Mar Smith pass intercepted Chris Henderson return for no gain to the SAlab 39 SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Jalen Thompson) to the SAlab 16Similar
Q1 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+14
23.5%
Israel Tucker run for 14 yds to the SAlab 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:53
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
23.5%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Adrian HardySimilar
Q1 13:53
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+6
23.5%
Israel Tucker run for 6 yds to the SAlab 36Similar
Q1 13:53
3RD & 4
OPP 36
-3
23.5%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Israel Tucker for a loss of 3 yards to the SAlab 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 26 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q1 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
24.4%
Kawaan Baker run for 4 yds to the SAlab 20Similar
Q1 12:17
2ND & 6
OWN 20
+13
24.4%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Tra Minter for 13 yds to the SAlab 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
24.4%
Tra Minter run for no gain to the SAlab 33Similar
Q1 12:17
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+5
24.4%
Deonta Moore run for 5 yds to the SAlab 38Similar
Q1 12:17
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+4
24.4%
Deonta Moore run for 4 yds to the SAlab 42Similar
Q1 12:17
4TH & 1
OWN 42
+22
24.4%
Corliss Waitman punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Teddy Veal at the SOUTHALA 21 SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, kick catching interference (Davyn Flenord) to the LaTch 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 4TD
5 plays · 64 yds · 1:1175% → 76%
Q1 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+10
25.4%
Jaqwis Dancy run for 10 yds to the LaTch 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
25.2%
SMITH, J'Mar pass incomplete to HARDY, Adrian, PENALTY USA pass interference (Mills, Darian) 15 yards to the USA39, 1ST DOWN LATECH, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+36
25.1%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Teddy Veal for 36 yds to the SAlab 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
25.0%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, false start (Kody Russey) to the SAlab 8Similar
Q1 8:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
23.6%
Jaqwis Dancy run for 8 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q1 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
24.2%
Cephus Johnson pass incomplete to Tra MinterSimilar
Q1 8:41
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
24.2%
Tra Minter run for 1 yd to the SAlab 26Similar
Q1 8:41
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+1
24.0%
Cephus Johnson run for 1 yd to the SAlab 27Similar
Q1 8:41
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
23.9%
Corliss Waitman punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Teddy Veal at the LaTch 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q1 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
24.4%
J'Mar Smith run for 2 yds to the LaTch 22Similar
Q1 7:22
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+10
24.4%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Cee Jay Powell for 10 yds to the LaTch 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
24.2%
Israel Tucker run for 1 yd to the LaTch 33Similar
Q1 7:22
2ND & 9
OWN 33
-3
24.2%
J'Mar Smith sacked by Taji Stewart for a loss of 3 yards to the LaTch 38 J'Mar Smith fumbled, recovered by LaTch Alfred Smith , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 7:22
3RD & 4
OWN 38
0
24.0%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Cee Jay PowellSimilar
Q1 7:22
4TH & 4
OWN 38
0
24.3%
Davan Dyer punt for 62 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 7INT
3 plays · 10 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q1 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
25.0%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Kawaan Baker for 9 yds to the SAlab 29Similar
Q1 4:41
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+1
25.5%
Tra Minter run for 1 yd to the SAlab 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
25.1%
Cole Garvin pass intercepted Amik Robertson return for no gain to the LaTch 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 8TD
13 plays · 72 yds · 5:2275% → 79%
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
24.8%
Jaqwis Dancy run for 5 yds to the LaTch 33Similar
Q1 3:40
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+10
24.6%
Jaqwis Dancy run for 10 yds to the LaTch 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+14
24.3%
Jaqwis Dancy run for 14 yds to the SAlab 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
24.2%
Jaqwis Dancy run for 9 yds to the SAlab 34Similar
Q1 3:40
2ND & 1
OPP 34
+2
24.1%
Jaqwis Dancy run for 2 yds to the SAlab 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
24.1%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Kam McKnight for 3 yds to the SAlab 29Similar
Q1 3:40
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+2
24.1%
Kam McKnight run for 2 yds to the SAlab 27Similar
Q1 3:40
3RD & 5
OPP 27
-7
24.3%
J'Mar Smith sacked by Tyree Turner for a loss of 7 yards to the SAlab 34Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 12
OPP 34
+16
25.4%
J'Mar Smith run for 1 yd to the SAlab 33 for a 1ST down SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Sterrling Fisher) to the SAlab 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+9
24.2%
Jaqwis Dancy run for 9 yds to the SAlab 9Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 9
+1
24.2%
Jaqwis Dancy run for 1 yd to the SAlab 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
24.2%
Jaqwis Dancy run for 7 yds to the SAlab 1Similar
Q2 13:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
21.4%
Jaqwis Dancy run for 1 yd for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q2 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
23.0%
Maurice Mayo run for 3 yds to the SAlab 37Similar
Q2 13:18
2ND & 7
OWN 37
0
23.2%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Maurice Mayo for no gain to the SAlab 37Similar
Q2 13:18
3RD & 7
OWN 37
0
22.8%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to Collier SmithSimilar
Q2 13:18
4TH & 7
OWN 37
0
22.7%
Corliss Waitman punt for 54 yds, downed at the LaTch 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 4 yds · 0:0078% → 77%
Q2 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+6
22.3%
Israel Tucker run for 6 yds to the LaTch 15Similar
Q2 12:19
2ND & 4
OWN 15
+2
22.1%
J'Mar Smith run for 2 yds to the LaTch 17Similar
Q2 12:19
3RD & 2
OWN 17
+9
22.4%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Teddy Veal for 9 yds to the LaTch 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
22.0%
Israel Tucker run for 1 yd to the LaTch 27Similar
Q2 12:19
2ND & 9
OWN 27
0
22.0%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Alfred SmithSimilar
Q2 12:19
3RD & 9
OWN 27
-5
22.3%
LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, false start (O'Shea Dugas) to the LaTch 22Similar
Q2 12:19
3RD & 14
OWN 22
-9
22.4%
J'Mar Smith sacked by Jeremiah Littles for a loss of 9 yards to the LaTch 13Similar
Q2 12:19
4TH & 23
OWN 13
0
22.7%
Davan Dyer punt for 22 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the LaTch 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 11TD
3 plays · 35 yds · 0:3824% → 29%
Q2 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
24.3%
Tra Minter run for 2 yds to the LaTch 33Similar
Q2 8:32
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+5
24.3%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Jordan McCray for 5 yds to the LaTch 28Similar
Q2 7:54
3RD & 3
OPP 28
+28
29.3%
Kawaan Baker run for 28 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 12FUMBLE
3 plays · 35 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q2 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
29.5%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Tra Minter for 7 yds to the LaTch 39Similar
Q2 7:54
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+29
29.6%
Sam Harris run for 29 yds to the LaTch 11 Sam Harris fumbled, forced by James Jackson, recovered by LaTch Jordan BaldwinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 44 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q2 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+61
26.0%
Jaqwis Dancy run for 61 yds to the SAlab 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:21
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-1
23.5%
Israel Tucker run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 29Similar
Q2 7:21
2ND & 11
OPP 29
0
23.7%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Adrian HardySimilar
Q2 7:21
3RD & 11
OPP 29
-2
24.1%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Israel Tucker for 8 yds to the SAlab 21 LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, Offensive holding (Alfred Smith) to the SAlab 31Similar
Q2 7:21
3RD & 13
OPP 31
-14
24.3%
J'Mar Smith run for 1 yd to the SAlab 30 LOUISIANA TECH Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Ethan Reed) to the SAlab 45Similar
Q2 7:21
4TH & 27
OPP 45
0
26.4%
Davan Dyer punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Tra Minter at the SAlab 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 14PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0026% → 25%
Q2 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-1
26.1%
Cole Garvin run for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 7Similar
Q2 4:59
2ND & 11
OWN 7
0
25.9%
Tra Minter run for no gain to the SAlab 7Similar
Q2 4:59
3RD & 11
OWN 7
0
25.2%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to Jordan McCraySimilar
Q2 4:59
4TH & 11
OWN 7
0
24.9%
Corliss Waitman punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Teddy Veal at the LaTch 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 15TD
8 plays · 55 yds · 2:5676% → 83%
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+28
24.1%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Rhashid Bonnette for 28 yds to the SAlab 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
23.3%
Israel Tucker run for 6 yds to the SAlab 21Similar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 4
OPP 21
+15
23.3%
SMITH, J'Mar pass incomplete to BONNETTE, R. (Thompson, Jalen), PENALTY USA pass interference (Thompson, Jalen) 15 yards to the USA6, 1ST DOWN LATECH, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
23.3%
Jaqwis Dancy run for 1 yd to the SAlab 5Similar
Q2 3:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
23.3%
Israel Tucker run for 4 yds to the SAlab 1Similar
Q2 1:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
23.1%
Israel Tucker run for no gain to the SAlab 1Similar
Q2 0:34
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
17.3%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Bobby Holly for 1 yd for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 16END OF HALF
2 plays · -11 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-11
20.3%
Cole Garvin sacked by Jordan Bradford for a loss of 11 yards to the SAlab 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 17FG
9 plays · 72 yds · 3:1881% → 87%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
18.7%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Alfred Smith for 3 yds to the LaTch 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+14
18.5%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Adrian Hardy for 14 yds to the LaTch 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+51
17.7%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Adrian Hardy for 51 yds to the SAlab 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
17.4%
Israel Tucker run for 6 yds to the SAlab 4Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
17.4%
SMITH, J'Mar rush for 3 yards to the USA1 (Grayer, Sean), PENALTY USA substitution infraction 2 yards to the USA2, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-3
17.4%
Israel Tucker run for a loss of 3 yards to the SAlab 6 Israel Tucker fumbled, recovered by LaTch J'Mar SmithSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
17.6%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Adrian Hardy, broken up by Jay WoodsSimilar
Q3 11:42
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
12.8%
Bailey Hale 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 18TD
18 plays · 67 yds · 4:4315% → 24%
Q3 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+5
15.4%
Kawaan Baker run for 5 yds to the SAlab 38Similar
Q3 11:42
2ND & 5
OWN 38
+7
16.1%
Kawaan Baker run for 7 yds to the SAlab 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+13
16.6%
Cole Garvin run for 13 yds to the LaTch 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+8
17.0%
Tra Minter run for 8 yds to the LaTch 34Similar
Q3 11:42
2ND & 2
OPP 34
0
17.6%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to Jamarius Way, broken up by L'Jarius SneedSimilar
Q3 11:42
3RD & 2
OPP 34
+1
17.2%
Tra Minter run for 1 yd to the LaTch 33Similar
Q3 9:39
4TH & 1
OPP 33
+2
15.3%
Cole Garvin run for 2 yds to the LaTch 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
15.8%
Tra Minter run for 1 yd to the LaTch 30Similar
Q3 9:39
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+10
15.7%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Jamarius Way for 10 yds to the LaTch 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
16.0%
Tra Minter run for 4 yds to the LaTch 16Similar
Q3 9:39
2ND & 6
OPP 16
0
16.0%
Cole Garvin pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:39
3RD & 6
OPP 16
+5
15.6%
Sam Harris run for 5 yds to the LaTch 11Similar
Q3 9:39
4TH & 1
OPP 11
+1
15.4%
Deonta Moore run for 1 yd to the LaTch 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
16.0%
Sam Harris run for 7 yds to the LaTch 3Similar
Q3 6:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
23.9%
Cole Garvin pass complete to Kawaan Baker for 3 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0079% → 78%
Q3 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
20.7%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Israel TuckerSimilar
Q3 6:59
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+4
21.0%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Rhashid Bonnette for 4 yds to the LaTch 16Similar
Q3 6:59
3RD & 6
OWN 16
+4
21.5%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Cee Jay Powell for 4 yds to the LaTch 20Similar
Q3 6:59
4TH & 2
OWN 20
0
22.0%
Davan Dyer punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SAlab 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 20FUMBLE
9 plays · 21 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q3 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
19.5%
Maurice Mayo run for no gain to the SAlab 45Similar
Q3 5:14
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+15
19.1%
Garvin, Cole pass incomplete, QB hurry by YDARRAGA, M., PENALTY LATECH roughing passer (DAVENPORT, L.) 15 yards to the LATECH40, 1ST DOWN USA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
20.4%
Cole Garvin run for 7 yds to the LaTch 33Similar
Q3 5:14
2ND & 3
OPP 33
0
21.5%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete, broken up by Jaylon FergusonSimilar
Q3 5:14
3RD & 3
OPP 33
+1
20.4%
Tra Minter run for 1 yd to the LaTch 32Similar
Q3 5:14
4TH & 2
OPP 32
+2
19.5%
Tra Minter run for 2 yds to the LaTch 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:14
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
21.5%
Cole Garvin pass incomplete to Sam HarrisSimilar
Q3 5:14
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+3
21.4%
Tra Minter run for 3 yds to the LaTch 27Similar
Q3 5:14
3RD & 7
OPP 27
-7
20.3%
Cole Garvin sacked by James Jackson and Jaylon Ferguson for a loss of 7 yards to the LaTch 34 Cole Garvin fumbled, recovered by LaTch James Jackson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 21INT
3 plays · 18 yds · 0:0082% → 84%
Q3 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
17.8%
Israel Tucker run for 6 yds to the LaTch 40Similar
Q3 2:24
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+12
16.7%
Israel Tucker run for 12 yds to the SAlab 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:24
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
16.2%
J'Mar Smith pass intercepted Jay Woods return for 1 yd to the SAlab 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 22INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q3 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+28
18.0%
Cole Garvin pass intercepted Darryl Lewis return for 28 yds to the LaTch 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 23INT
7 plays · 13 yds · 0:3984% → 84%
Q3 0:39
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
16.1%
Kam McKnight run for 5 yds to the SAlab 49Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+4
15.9%
Israel Tucker run for 4 yds to the SAlab 45Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 45
0
15.8%
Israel Tucker run for no gain to the SAlab 45Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 45
+1
17.6%
Israel Tucker run for 1 yd to the SAlab 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
15.7%
Israel Tucker run for no gain to the SAlab 44Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+3
15.8%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Alfred Smith for 3 yds to the SAlab 41Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 41
0
16.0%
J'Mar Smith pass intercepted Jalen Thompson return for no gain to the SAlab 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 24TD
10 plays · 66 yds · 3:3515% → 42%
Q4 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
15.1%
Kawaan Baker run for 3 yds to the SAlab 37Similar
Q4 11:53
2ND & 7
OWN 37
0
15.5%
Tra Minter run for no gain to the SAlab 37Similar
Q4 11:53
3RD & 7
OWN 37
+9
15.0%
Evan Orth pass complete to Tra Minter for 9 yds Tra Minter fumbled, forced by Jordan Baldwin, recovered by SAlab Kawaan Baker for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
16.0%
Maurice Mayo run for 3 yds to the SAlab 48Similar
Q4 11:53
2ND & 7
OWN 48
0
16.2%
Evan Orth pass incomplete to Jamarius WaySimilar
Q4 11:53
3RD & 7
OWN 48
+21
15.4%
Evan Orth pass complete to Jamarius Way for 21 yds to the LaTch 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+15
18.7%
Evan Orth run for 15 yds to the LaTch 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:53
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+9
19.0%
Evan Orth pass complete to Jordan McCray for 9 yds to the LaTch 7Similar
Q4 11:53
2ND & 1
OPP 7
+2
19.0%
Maurice Mayo run for 2 yds to the LaTch 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
42.0%
Maurice Mayo run for 5 yds for a TD (Gavin Patterson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 25TD
14 plays · 74 yds · 5:5972% → 95%
Q4 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+18
27.6%
Israel Tucker run for 18 yds to the LaTch 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-3
24.7%
Kam McKnight run for a loss of 3 yards to the LaTch 41Similar
Q4 8:18
2ND & 13
OWN 41
0
26.9%
J'Mar Smith pass incomplete to Adrian HardySimilar
Q4 8:18
3RD & 13
OWN 41
+13
28.2%
J'Mar Smith run for 13 yds to the SAlab 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
23.8%
Jaqwis Dancy run for 1 yd to the SAlab 45Similar
Q4 8:18
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+2
23.9%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Jaqwis Dancy for 2 yds to the SAlab 43Similar
Q4 8:18
3RD & 7
OPP 43
+19
24.3%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Rhashid Bonnette for 19 yds to the SAlab 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
21.9%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Rhashid Bonnette for 1 yd to the SAlab 23Similar
Q4 8:18
2ND & 9
OPP 23
+5
21.9%
Jaqwis Dancy run for 5 yds to the SAlab 18Similar
Q4 3:18
3RD & 4
OPP 18
+8
16.8%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Teddy Veal for 8 yds to the SAlab 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
15.1%
Israel Tucker run for 2 yds to the SAlab 8Similar
Q4 2:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
4.6%
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Adrian Hardy for 8 yds for a TD (Bailey Hale KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 26TD
6 plays · 71 yds · 1:085% → 34%
Q4 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
4.9%
Maurice Mayo run for 2 yds to the SAlab 31Similar
Q4 2:19
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+6
4.9%
Evan Orth pass complete to Maurice Mayo for 6 yds to the SAlab 37Similar
Q4 2:19
3RD & 2
OWN 37
0
5.2%
Evan Orth pass incomplete to Jordan McCraySimilar
Q4 2:19
4TH & 2
OWN 37
+59
4.9%
Evan Orth run for 59 yds to the LaTch 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
33.6%
Kawaan Baker run for 4 yds for a TD SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the LaTch 8 (Gavin Patterson PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LTDrive 27END OF GAME
5 plays · -7 yds · 0:0394% → 92%
Q4 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-3
6.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the SAlab 45Similar
Q4 1:08
2ND & 13
OPP 45
-2
6.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the SAlab 47Similar
Q4 1:08
3RD & 15
OPP 47
-2
7.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the SAlab 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:11
Kawaan Baker run for 4 yds for a TD SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the LaTch 8 (Gavin Patterson PAT BLOCKED)
+28.7
TD · Q4 8:18
Maurice Mayo run for 5 yds for a TD (Gavin Patterson KICK)
+23.1
TD · Q4 2:19
J'Mar Smith pass complete to Adrian Hardy for 8 yds for a TD (Bailey Hale KICK)
-10.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com