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UNC

North Carolina 10 at Miami 47

MIA
2018 · Week 5 · Sep 27, 2018 · Hard Rock Stadium
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Win probability · MIA
modelMIA aheadUNC aheadconfidence bandkey playMIA scoreUNC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:34 · Hunter Lent punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jaquan Johnson at the MiaFl 36
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+39.5+19.80−19.8−39.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 95Pregame prior+19.7Home team on offense+22.5Score differential+14.1Garbage-time factor+3.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.2Blowout margin+0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:11: Chazz Surratt run for 17 yds for a TD, (Freeman Jones KICK) — UNC win probability +2.3 pts (now 15%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 12:17: Bubba Baxa 35 yd FG GOOD — MIA win probability +1.4 pts (now 87%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 9:00: Chazz Surratt pass intercepted for a TD Joe Jackson return for 42 yds for a TD, (Bubba Baxa KICK) — MIA win probability +4.2 pts (now 90%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 2:31: N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Darrell Langham for 5 yds for a TD, (Bubba Baxa PAT BLOCKED) — MIA win probability +5.1 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:47: Chazz Surratt pass intercepted for a TD Romeo Finley return for 83 yds for a TD, (Bubba Baxa KICK) — MIA win probability +1.0 pts (now 100%) (top driver: UNC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MIA made the numbers' call on 2 of 3UNC made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 12:18MIA 4th & 5 at MIA 49, tied
    Close callPunted · 87.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.8%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:04UNC 4th & 5 at MIA 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.7%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.7%
    92% to make
    Punt
    13.2%−0.5
    average punt
  3. Q2 12:17MIA 4th & 8 at UNC 18, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.6%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.9%
    79% to make
    Punt
    82.1%−1.8
    average punt
  4. Q2 6:00UNC 4th & 17 at UNC 36, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.5%−1.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.6%
    average punt
  5. Q3 10:34UNC 4th & 10 at UNC 25, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.0%−0.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.4%
    average punt
  6. Q3 4:32MIA 4th & 13 at MIA 28, up 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.5%−0.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.9%
    average punt
  7. Q3 1:25UNC 4th & 12 at MIA 44, down 23
    Close callWent for it · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.4%−0.2
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    1.4%−0.2
    27% to make
    Punt
    1.6%
    average punt
  8. Q4 14:47UNC 4th & 7 at MIA 21, down 23
    Close callWent for it · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.3%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    1.3%
    74% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−0.9
    average punt
  9. Q4 11:30UNC 4th & 7 at MIA 39, down 30
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−<0.1
    36% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIA made the numbers' call on 5 of 5UNC made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 6:01MIA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:11UNC Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:00MIA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:31MIA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    96.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:47MIA Touchdown, up 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 4:04MIA Touchdown, up 36 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MIADrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 33 yds · 2:2289% → 89%
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+28
89.3%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Mike Harley for 28 yds to the MiaFl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
89.1%
Travis Homer run for no gain to the MiaFl 44Similar
Q1 13:10
2ND & 10
OWN 44
-1
88.9%
Travis Homer run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 43Similar
Q1 12:50
3RD & 11
OWN 43
+6
88.8%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Darrell Langham for 6 yds to the MiaFl 49Similar
Q1 12:18
4TH & 5
OWN 49
0
88.6%
Jack Spicer punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Dazz Newsome at the NCaro 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 2FG
12 plays · 78 yds · 4:0112% → 13%
Q1 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
88.5%
Nathan Elliott run for 3 yds to the NCaro 20Similar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+14
88.4%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Thomas Jackson for 14 yds to the NCaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
88.3%
MIAMI FL Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the NCaro 39Similar
Q1 10:50
1ST & 5
OWN 39
+3
88.0%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Thomas Jackson for 3 yds to the NCaro 42Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 2
OWN 42
+3
87.9%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Dyami Brown for 3 yds to the NCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+22
87.7%
Michael Carter run for 22 yds to the MiaFl 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
87.5%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Jake BargasSimilar
Q1 9:09
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+30
87.3%
Michael Carter run for 30 yds to the MiaFl 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
87.0%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Dazz NewsomeSimilar
Q1 8:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
87.0%
Nathan Elliott run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 5Similar
Q1 8:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
86.9%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Dazz NewsomeSimilar
Q1 8:04
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
86.9%
Freeman Jones 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 3TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:5987% → 88%
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
86.9%
Travis Homer run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 27Similar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+13
86.6%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Brian Hightower for 13 yds to the MiaFl 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+56
86.8%
Travis Homer run for 56 yds to the NCaro 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
87.7%
DeeJay Dallas run for 4 yds for a TD, (Bubba Baxa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 4FUMBLE TD
4 plays · -11 yds · 0:5813% → 12%
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
87.1%
Antonio Williams run for 3 yds to the NCaro 30Similar
Q1 5:06
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+1
86.9%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Antoine Green for 1 yd to the NCaro 31Similar
Q1 4:32
3RD & 6
OWN 31
+9
88.3%
Nathan Elliott sacked by Shaquille Quarterman for a loss of 15 yards Nathan Elliott fumbled, forced by Shaquille Quarterman, recovered by MiaFl Jonathan Garvin , return for 0 yards , return for 9 yds, (Bubba Baxa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 5TD
8 plays · 70 yds · 1:5612% → 15%
Q1 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+13
88.1%
Michael Carter run for 13 yds to the NCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
87.9%
Chazz Surratt pass incomplete to Jake BargasSimilar
Q1 3:45
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-2
87.9%
Chazz Surratt run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 41Similar
Q1 3:19
3RD & 12
OWN 41
+15
88.4%
Chazz Surratt pass incomplete to Thomas Jackson for a 1ST down MIAMI FL Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the MiaFl 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+16
87.8%
Michael Carter run for 16 yds to the MiaFl 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+11
87.4%
Chazz Surratt run for 11 yds to the MiaFl 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
85.0%
Chazz Surratt run for 17 yds for a TD, (Freeman Jones KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 6FG
12 plays · 57 yds · 4:3786% → 87%
Q1 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
86.0%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Jeff Thomas for 5 yds to the MiaFl 30Similar
Q1 1:30
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+22
86.0%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Darrell Langham for 22 yds to the NCaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
86.3%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Lawrence CagerSimilar
Q1 0:46
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+12
86.2%
N'Kosi Perry run for 12 yds to the NCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-5
86.1%
MIAMI FL Penalty, False Start (Brevin Jordan) to the NCaro 41Similar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 15
OPP 41
+4
85.7%
DeeJay Dallas run for 4 yds to the NCaro 37Similar
Q2 14:16
2ND & 11
OPP 37
+17
85.8%
DeeJay Dallas run for 17 yds to the NCaro 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
85.9%
Travis Homer run for 3 yds to the NCaro 17Similar
Q2 12:50
2ND & 7
OPP 17
-1
85.7%
N'Kosi Perry sacked by Trey Morrison for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 18Similar
Q2 12:22
3RD & 8
OPP 18
0
85.3%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Darrell LanghamSimilar
Q2 12:17
4TH & 8
OPP 18
+35
86.7%
Bubba Baxa 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 7INT TD
9 plays · 25 yds · 3:0814% → 10%
Q2 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
86.4%
Chazz Surratt run for 20 yds to the NCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-5
85.8%
NORTH CAROLINA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the NCaro 40Similar
Q2 11:27
1ST & 15
OWN 40
+13
86.2%
Chazz Surratt pass complete to Beau Corrales for 13 yds to the MiaFl 47Similar
Q2 11:16
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+1
85.2%
Antonio Williams run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 46Similar
Q2 10:42
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+3
85.1%
Chazz Surratt run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:11
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-1
85.0%
Michael Carter run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 44Similar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 11
OPP 44
-6
85.4%
Michael Carter run for a loss of 6 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 9:00
3RD & 17
50
+42
89.6%
Chazz Surratt pass intercepted for a TD Joe Jackson return for 42 yds for a TD, (Bubba Baxa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 2:4811% → 10%
Q2 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
89.5%
Chazz Surratt pass complete to Michael Carter for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 23Similar
Q2 8:14
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+20
89.7%
Chazz Surratt run for 20 yds to the NCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
89.4%
Michael Carter run for 1 yd to the NCaro 44Similar
Q2 7:20
2ND & 9
OWN 44
-2
89.3%
Jordon Brown run for a loss of 2 yards to the NCaro 42Similar
Q2 6:30
3RD & 11
OWN 42
-6
89.6%
Chazz Surratt sacked by Joe Jackson for a loss of 6 yards to the NCaro 36 Chazz Surratt fumbled, forced by Joe Jackson, recovered by NCaro Chazz Surratt , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 6:00
4TH & 17
OWN 36
0
90.0%
Hunter Lent punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MiaFl 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 9TD
7 plays · 79 yds · 3:1490% → 96%
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
90.0%
N'Kosi Perry run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 26Similar
Q2 5:05
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+25
90.0%
DeeJay Dallas run for 25 yds to the NCaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
90.6%
Travis Homer run for 2 yds to the NCaro 47Similar
Q2 3:51
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+42
90.6%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Mike Harley for 42 yds to the NCaro 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
90.8%
N'Kosi Perry run for no gain to the NCaro 5Similar
Q2 2:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
91.0%
N'Kosi Perry pass incomplete to Lawrence CagerSimilar
Q2 2:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
96.1%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Darrell Langham for 5 yds for a TD, (Bubba Baxa PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 10INT
9 plays · 28 yds · 1:585% → 4%
Q2 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
95.5%
Chazz Surratt run for 7 yds to the NCaro 28Similar
Q2 1:47
2ND & 3
OWN 28
+15
95.4%
Antonio Williams run for 15 yds to the NCaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-1
95.3%
Chazz Surratt sacked by Shaquille Quarterman for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 42Similar
Q2 1:03
2ND & 11
OWN 42
+12
95.7%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Michael Carter for 12 yds to the MiaFl 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-5
95.5%
Chazz Surratt pass complete to Michael Carter for a loss of 5 yards to the NCaro 49Similar
Q2 0:21
2ND & 15
OWN 49
0
95.9%
Chazz Surratt pass incomplete to Thomas JacksonSimilar
Q2 0:11
3RD & 15
OWN 49
+25
96.0%
Chazz Surratt pass intercepted Jhavonte Dean return for 25 yds to the NCaro 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 11END OF HALF
3 plays · 22 yds · 0:0497% → 97%
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+22
97.1%
DeeJay Dallas run for 22 yds to the NCaro 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+28
97.3%
Bubba Baxa 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 12FUMBLE
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:414% → 4%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
96.0%
Antonio Williams run for 5 yds to the NCaro 30Similar
Q3 14:36
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
95.8%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Thomas Jackson for 6 yds to the NCaro 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
95.9%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Anthony Ratliff-WilliamsSimilar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-6
95.9%
Nathan Elliott run for a loss of 6 yards to the NCaro 34 Nathan Elliott fumbled, recovered by MiaFl Jonathan GarvinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 13FUMBLE
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5697% → 97%
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+5
96.9%
Travis Homer run for 5 yds to the NCaro 29Similar
Q3 13:15
2ND & 5
OPP 29
+6
97.0%
Travis Homer run for 6 yds to the NCaro 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
97.0%
Travis Homer run for 1 yd to the NCaro 22Similar
Q3 12:04
2ND & 9
OPP 22
-3
97.1%
N'Kosi Perry sacked by Malik Carney for a loss of 3 yards to the NCaro 25 N'Kosi Perry fumbled, forced by Malik Carney, recovered by NCaro Jeremiah Clarke , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:263% → 3%
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.6%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Carl TuckerSimilar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
96.7%
Jordon Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the NCaro 24Similar
Q3 11:08
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+1
96.9%
Jordon Brown run for 1 yd to the NCaro 25Similar
Q3 10:34
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
96.9%
Hunter Lent punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jaquan Johnson at the MiaFl 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 15INT
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:1397% → 97%
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
97.3%
DeeJay Dallas run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 34Similar
Q3 9:47
2ND & 12
OWN 34
+19
97.3%
N'Kosi Perry pass intercepted Bryson Richardson return for 19 yds to the MiaFl 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 16MISSED FG
7 plays · 7 yds · 2:153% → 3%
Q3 9:42
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+15
96.7%
Elliott, Nathan pass incomplete, PENALTY MIAMI personal foul (Willis III, Gerald) 15 yards to the MIAMI23, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UNC.Similar
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+14
96.3%
Jordon Brown run for 14 yds to the MiaFl 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
96.8%
Johnathon Sutton run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 7Similar
Q3 8:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-15
96.9%
Elliott, Nathan pass incomplete to Walston, Garrett, PENALTY UNC pass interference (Ratliff-Williams, Anthony) 15 yards to the MIAMI22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 22
-9
97.1%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Dazz Newsome for a loss of 9 yards to the MiaFl 31Similar
Q3 7:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 31
0
97.3%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Dazz NewsomeSimilar
Q3 7:27
4TH & GOAL
OPP 31
+48
97.4%
Freeman Jones 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 2:4397% → 98%
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
97.4%
Travis Homer run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 33Similar
Q3 6:25
2ND & 8
OWN 33
-10
97.6%
Perry, N'Kosi rush for 4 yards to the MIAMI37, PENALTY MIAMI holding 10 yards to the MIAMI23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:45
2ND & 18
OWN 23
-8
97.6%
Travis Homer run for a loss of 8 yards to the MiaFl 15 Travis Homer fumbled, forced by Malik Carney, recovered by MiaFl Travis HomerSimilar
Q3 5:01
3RD & 26
OWN 15
+13
97.9%
N'Kosi Perry run for 13 yds to the MiaFl 28Similar
Q3 4:32
4TH & 13
OWN 28
+15
97.9%
Jack Spicer punt for 41 yds , Dazz Newsome returns for 15 yds to the NCaro 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 18INT TD
14 plays · 33 yds · 4:062% → 0%
Q3 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
97.8%
Thomas Jackson run for no gain to the NCaro 46 Thomas Jackson fumbled, forced by Zach McCloud, recovered by NCaro Jake BargasSimilar
Q3 3:30
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+12
98.0%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Carl Tucker for 12 yds to the MiaFl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
98.0%
Jordon Brown run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 41Similar
Q3 2:43
2ND & 9
OPP 41
-10
98.1%
Elliott, Nathan pass complete to Williams, Antonio for 16 yards to the MIAMI25, PENALTY UNC illegal block 10 yards to the UNC49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:20
2ND & 19
OWN 49
+17
98.3%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Antonio Williams for 17 yds to the MiaFl 34Similar
Q3 1:35
3RD & 2
OPP 34
-10
98.2%
Elliott, Nathan rush for no gain to the MIAMI34, PENALTY UNC holding 10 yards to the MIAMI44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:32
3RD & 12
OPP 44
0
98.4%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Thomas JacksonSimilar
Q3 1:25
4TH & 12
OPP 44
+20
98.6%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams for 20 yds to the MiaFl 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
98.4%
Nathan Elliott pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:50
2ND & 10
OPP 24
-1
98.4%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Jordon Brown for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 25Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 11
OPP 25
+4
98.9%
Chazz Surratt pass complete to Dyami Brown for 4 yds to the MiaFl 21Similar
Q4 14:47
4TH & 7
OPP 21
+83
99.9%
Chazz Surratt pass intercepted for a TD Romeo Finley return for 83 yds for a TD, (Bubba Baxa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 19DOWNS
8 plays · 27 yds · 2:550% → 0%
Q4 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
99.9%
Jordon Brown run for 1 yd to the NCaro 35Similar
Q4 14:02
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+10
99.9%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Jordon Brown for 10 yds to the NCaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+13
99.9%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Anthony Ratliff-Williams for 13 yds to the MiaFl 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
99.9%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Antonio Williams for 1 yd to the MiaFl 41Similar
Q4 12:30
2ND & 9
OPP 41
-3
99.9%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Jordon Brown for a loss of 3 yards to the MiaFl 44Similar
Q4 11:50
3RD & 12
OPP 44
+5
99.9%
Nathan Elliott pass complete to Dazz Newsome for 5 yds to the MiaFl 39Similar
Q4 11:30
4TH & 7
OPP 39
0
99.9%
Nathan Elliott pass incomplete to Thomas JacksonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 20TD
12 plays · 61 yds · 7:11100% → 100%
Q4 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
99.9%
DeeJay Dallas run for 6 yds to the MiaFl 45Similar
Q4 10:33
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+5
99.9%
DeeJay Dallas run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-3
99.9%
DeeJay Dallas run for 7 yds to the MiaFl 43 MIAMI FL Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the MiaFl 47Similar
Q4 9:24
1ST & 13
OWN 47
+16
99.9%
Travis Homer run for 16 yds to the NCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:47
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
99.9%
Travis Homer run for no gain to the NCaro 37Similar
Q4 7:35
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+4
99.9%
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Brevin Jordan for 4 yds to the NCaro 33Similar
Q4 6:20
3RD & 6
OPP 33
+10
99.9%
DeeJay Dallas run for 10 yds to the NCaro 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+16
99.9%
DeeJay Dallas run for 16 yds to the NCaro 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
99.9%
Travis Homer run for 4 yds to the NCaro 3Similar
Q4 4:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
99.9%
Trayone Gray run for 2 yds to the NCaro 1Similar
Q4 4:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
100.0%
Trayone Gray run for 1 yd for a TD, (Bubba Baxa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNCDrive 21FUMBLE
9 plays · 54 yds · 3:350% → 0%
Q4 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+18
100.0%
Antwuan Branch run for 18 yds to the NCaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
100.0%
Nathan Elliott run for 2 yds to the NCaro 39Similar
Q4 2:40
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+1
100.0%
Antwuan Branch run for 1 yd to the NCaro 40Similar
Q4 2:05
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+13
100.0%
Javonte Williams run for 13 yds to the MiaFl 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
100.0%
Javonte Williams run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 45Similar
Q4 1:08
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+20
100.0%
Johnathon Sutton run for 20 yds to the MiaFl 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
100.0%
Johnathon Sutton run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 23Similar
Q4 0:15
2ND & 8
OPP 23
-4
100.0%
Nathan Elliott run for a loss of 4 yards to the MiaFl 27 Nathan Elliott fumbled, recovered by MiaFl Bradley Jennings Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 22END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-2
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:31
N'Kosi Perry pass complete to Darrell Langham for 5 yds for a TD, (Bubba Baxa PAT BLOCKED)
+5.1
TD · Q2 9:00
Chazz Surratt pass intercepted for a TD Joe Jackson return for 42 yds for a TD, (Bubba Baxa KICK)
+4.2
TD · Q1 2:11
Chazz Surratt run for 17 yds for a TD, (Freeman Jones KICK)
-2.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com