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TROY

Troy 16 at Liberty 22

LIB
2018 · Week 7 · Oct 13, 2018 · Williams Stadium (VA)
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Win probability · LIB
modelLIB aheadTROY aheadconfidence bandkey playLIB scoreTROY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:13 · Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Damion Willis, broken up by Jeremy Peters
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+26.5+13.30−13.3−26.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:43: Stephen Calvert pass complete to Khaleb Coleman for 29 yds for a TD (Aaron Peart KICK) — LIB win probability +9.8 pts (now 36%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:38: Peytton Pickett run for 2 yds for a TD (Aaron Peart KICK) — LIB win probability +9.5 pts (now 47%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 12:48: Tyler Sumpter 26 yd FG GOOD — TROY win probability +12.3 pts (now 65%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 6:18: Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to DJ Stubbs — LIB win probability +9.2 pts (now 50%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  5. TD · Q4 2:23: Stephen Calvert pass complete to B.J. Farrow for 9 yds for a TD (DJ Stubbs pass to B.J. Farrow for Two-Point Conversion) — LIB win probability +44.4 pts (now 95%) (top driver: LIB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LIB made the numbers' call on 6 of 11TROY made the numbers' call on 10 of 11
  1. Q1 15:00LIB 4th & 3 at LIB 29, tied
    Close callPunted · 24.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:32TROY 4th & 12 at TROY 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.4%−0.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:41TROY 4th & 1 at LIB 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    73.1%−0.3
    23% to make
    Punt
    73.2%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:04LIB 4th & 7 at LIB 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.9%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.9%
    average punt
  5. Q1 7:17TROY 4th & 19 at TROY 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.8%−0.6
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.4%
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:38LIB 4th & 2 at TROY 45, tied
    Close callPunted · 30.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    30.1%−0.7
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    30.5%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 15:00LIB 4th & 1 at TROY 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    26.3%−1.5
    40% to make
    Punt
    26.1%−1.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:43TROY 4th & 1 at LIB 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    66.0%−1.1
    68% to make
    Punt
    63.3%−3.8
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:25TROY 4th & 9 at LIB 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.5%−0.7
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.2%
    74% to make
    Punt
    60.8%−4.4
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:28TROY 4th & 7 at TROY 49, down 4
    Close callPunted · 56.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.1%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.7%−0.3
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:33LIB 4th & 2 at LIB 9, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.6%−1.2
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.8%
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:27LIB 4th & 10 at TROY 47, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.3%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.4%
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:46TROY 4th & 11 at LIB 33, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.1%−0.7
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.9%
    49% to make
    Punt
    47.9%−1.0
    average punt
  14. Q3 9:45LIB 4th & 8 at LIB 46, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.5%−1.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.7%
    average punt
  15. Q3 6:09LIB 4th & 4 at TROY 44, up 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 51.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    48.8%−3.8
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    51.0%−1.6
    average punt
  16. Q3 4:01TROY 4th & 23 at TROY 10, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.7%−5.9
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.7%
    average punt
  17. Q3 1:45LIB 4th & 9 at LIB 31, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.1%−4.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.2%
    average punt
  18. Q4 12:48TROY 4th & 9 at LIB 9, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.2%−3.0
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.1%
    89% to make
    Punt
    31.5%−16.7
    average punt
  19. Q4 12:48LIB 4th & 3 at LIB 44, down 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 43.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.3%−1.7
    average punt
  20. Q4 10:36TROY 4th & 23 at LIB 44, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.9%−8.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    57.7%−4.3
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    62.0%
    average punt
  21. Q4 2:15TROY 4th & 16 at TROY 20, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.9%
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.0%−0.9
    average punt
  22. Q4 0:18LIB 4th & 16 at TROY 18, up 6
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.4 ptsWent for it · 92.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    90.9%−1.4
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    92.3%
    79% to make
    Punt
    89.5%−2.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LIB made the numbers' call on 3 of 3TROY made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 0:00TROY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:43LIB Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:38LIB Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 2:23LIB Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    77.5%−0.9
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    78.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LIBDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
23.6%
Frankie Hickson run for 4 yds to the Liber 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+3
23.6%
Frankie Hickson run for 3 yds to the Liber 29Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 29
0
23.6%
Stephen Calvert pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 29
0
23.6%
Aidan Alves punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Troy 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
24.3%
B.J. Smith run for 2 yds to the Troy 37Similar
Q1 13:32
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+6
24.3%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Luke Whittemore for 6 yds to the Troy 43Similar
Q1 13:32
3RD & 2
OWN 43
-5
24.3%
TROY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Troy 38Similar
Q1 13:32
3RD & 7
OWN 38
0
24.3%
Sawyer Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:32
4TH & 7
OWN 38
-5
24.4%
TROY Penalty, false start (Tyler Murray) to the Troy 33Similar
Q1 13:32
4TH & 12
OWN 33
0
24.4%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Liber 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 3INT
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
25.0%
Frankie Hickson run for 5 yds to the Liber 21Similar
Q1 12:15
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+1
25.0%
Frankie Hickson run for 1 yd to the Liber 22Similar
Q1 12:15
3RD & 4
OWN 22
+1
24.9%
Stephen Calvert pass intercepted Cedarius Rookard return for 1 yd to the Troy 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 4FUMBLE
5 plays · 19 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q1 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-1
25.4%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Tray Eafford for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 44Similar
Q1 10:41
2ND & 11
OWN 44
+7
25.5%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 7 yds to the Liber 49Similar
Q1 10:41
3RD & 4
OPP 49
+3
25.4%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Sidney Davis for 3 yds to the Liber 46Similar
Q1 10:41
4TH & 1
OPP 46
+2
25.6%
B.J. Smith run for 2 yds to the Liber 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:41
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
25.3%
Sawyer Smith run for 9 yds to the Liber 36 Sawyer Smith fumbled, forced by Solomon Ajayi, recovered by Liber Jessie LemonierSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q1 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
27.2%
Frankie Hickson run for 3 yds to the Liber 39Similar
Q1 8:04
2ND & 7
OWN 39
0
27.4%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to B.J. FarrowSimilar
Q1 8:04
3RD & 7
OWN 39
0
27.1%
Stephen Calvert pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:04
4TH & 7
OWN 39
0
26.8%
Aidan Alves punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Cedarius Rookard at the Troy 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 0:0073% → 72%
Q1 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
27.1%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 3 yds to the Troy 34Similar
Q1 7:17
2ND & 7
OWN 34
0
27.1%
Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Sidney DavisSimilar
Q1 7:17
3RD & 7
OWN 34
-15
27.3%
Smith, Sawyer sideline pass complete to Davis, Sidney for 11 yards to the TROY45, PENALTY TROY pass interference (Douglas, D.) 15 yards to the TROY19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:17
3RD & 22
OWN 19
+3
27.6%
Sawyer Smith run for 3 yds to the Troy 22Similar
Q1 7:17
4TH & 19
OWN 22
0
27.8%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 43 yds, fair catch by DJ Stubbs at the Liber 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:0828% → 30%
Q1 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
28.3%
Peytton Pickett run for 5 yds to the Liber 40Similar
Q1 5:46
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+7
28.8%
Peytton Pickett run for 7 yds to the Liber 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:46
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
28.9%
Peytton Pickett run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 5:46
2ND & 7
50
-8
29.0%
B.J. Farrow sacked by Will Sunderland for a loss of 8 yards to the Liber 42Similar
Q1 3:38
3RD & 15
OWN 42
+13
28.9%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Fidel Ogbeifun for 13 yds to the Troy 45Similar
Q1 3:38
4TH & 2
OPP 45
0
29.5%
Aidan Alves punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Cedarius Rookard at the Troy 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 8TD
6 plays · 86 yds · 2:4371% → 76%
Q1 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
29.5%
B.J. Smith run for 5 yds to the Troy 19Similar
Q1 2:43
2ND & 5
OWN 19
+4
29.4%
B.J. Smith run for 4 yds to the Troy 23Similar
Q1 2:43
3RD & 1
OWN 23
+1
29.4%
B.J. Smith run for 1 yd to the Troy 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
29.4%
B.J. Smith run for 4 yds to the Troy 28Similar
Q1 2:43
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+49
29.1%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Damion Willis for 49 yds to the Liber 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
24.1%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 23 yds for a TD (Tyler Sumpter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 9TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:1726% → 36%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
25.6%
Peytton Pickett run for 2 yds to the Liber 27Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+14
25.7%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Mitchell Lewis for 14 yds to the Liber 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
26.6%
Peytton Pickett run for a loss of 1 yard to the Liber 40Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 40
+3
26.0%
Peytton Pickett run for 3 yds to the Liber 43Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 43
+11
25.8%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to DJ Stubbs for 11 yds to the Troy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
27.1%
Peytton Pickett run for 3 yds to the Troy 43Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 43
0
27.1%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to B.J. FarrowSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 43
+6
26.8%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Fidel Ogbeifun for 6 yds to the Troy 37Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 37
+8
26.3%
Peytton Pickett run for 8 yds to the Troy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
36.1%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Khaleb Coleman for 29 yds for a TD (Aaron Peart KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 10FG
14 plays · 54 yds · 5:1868% → 70%
Q2 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
32.3%
B.J. Smith run for 1 yd to the Troy 26Similar
Q2 10:43
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+22
32.4%
B.J. Smith run for 22 yds to the Troy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
30.7%
B.J. Smith run for 7 yds to the Liber 45Similar
Q2 10:43
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+12
30.2%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 12 yds to the Liber 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
29.9%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Damion Willis for 6 yds to the Liber 27Similar
Q2 10:43
2ND & 4
OPP 27
0
29.6%
Gunnar Watson pass incomplete to Bret ClarkSimilar
Q2 10:43
3RD & 4
OPP 27
+3
30.3%
B.J. Smith run for 3 yds to the Liber 24Similar
Q2 10:43
4TH & 1
OPP 24
+2
31.1%
Sawyer Smith run for 2 yds to the Liber 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+7
29.6%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Jabir Daughtry-Frye for 7 yds to the Liber 15Similar
Q2 10:43
2ND & 3
OPP 15
-10
29.6%
Watson, Gunnar sideline pass complete to Douglas, D. for 2 yards to the LIBERTY13, out-of-bounds (BENTON, E.), PENALTY TROY holding (Davis, Sidney) 10 yards to the LIBERTY25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:43
2ND & 13
OPP 25
-1
30.2%
Gunnar Watson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Liber 26Similar
Q2 10:43
3RD & 14
OPP 26
+5
31.5%
Sawyer Smith run for 5 yds to the Liber 21Similar
Q2 5:25
4TH & 9
OPP 21
+38
30.1%
Tyler Sumpter 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 11TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 2:4731% → 47%
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
31.0%
Peytton Pickett run for 9 yds to the Liber 34Similar
Q2 5:25
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+15
32.6%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to DJ Stubbs for 15 yds to the Liber 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+34
33.5%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to B.J. Farrow for 34 yds to the Troy 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
34.7%
CALVERT, S. sacked for loss of 6 yards to the TROY23 (Showers, A.), PENALTY TROY offside defense (Showers, A.) 5 yards to the TROY12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:25
1ST & 5
OPP 12
+1
34.7%
Peytton Pickett run for 1 yd to the Troy 11Similar
Q2 5:25
2ND & 4
OPP 11
+2
34.7%
Peytton Pickett run for 2 yds to the Troy 9Similar
Q2 5:25
3RD & 2
OPP 9
+4
33.5%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to B.J. Farrow for 4 yds to the Troy 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
34.7%
Peytton Pickett run for 3 yds to the Troy 2Similar
Q2 2:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
46.8%
Peytton Pickett run for 2 yds for a TD (Aaron Peart KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0058% → 56%
Q2 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
41.6%
Tray Eafford run for 3 yds to the Troy 49Similar
Q2 2:28
2ND & 7
OWN 49
0
41.3%
Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Sidney DavisSimilar
Q2 2:28
3RD & 7
OWN 49
0
42.2%
Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Sidney DavisSimilar
Q2 2:28
4TH & 7
OWN 49
0
44.2%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 50 yds, downed at the Liber 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 0:5644% → 45%
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
44.4%
Frankie Hickson run for 1 yd to the Liber 2Similar
Q2 1:24
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+4
45.5%
Frankie Hickson run for 4 yds to the Liber 6Similar
Q2 1:19
3RD & 5
OWN 6
+3
44.9%
Frankie Hickson run for 3 yds to the Liber 9Similar
Q2 0:33
4TH & 2
OWN 9
0
45.3%
Aidan Alves punt for 44 yds , Cedarius Rookard returns for no gain to the Troy 47 Cedarius Rookard fumbled, recovered by Liber Khaleb ColemanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0051% → 47%
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
50.6%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Khaleb ColemanSimilar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
50.3%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Fidel OgbeifunSimilar
Q2 0:27
3RD & 10
OPP 47
0
48.8%
Stephen Calvert pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:27
4TH & 10
OPP 47
-5
47.2%
LIBERTY Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Liber 48Similar
Q2 0:27
4TH & 10
OPP 47
0
47.2%
Aidan Alves punt for 9 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Troy 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 15FG
11 plays · 41 yds · 4:0855% → 54%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
44.6%
B.J. Smith run for 2 yds to the Troy 28Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+5
44.4%
Sidney Davis run for 5 yds to the Troy 33Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+5
44.3%
B.J. Smith run for 5 yds to the Troy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
43.4%
Sawyer Smith run for 11 yds to the Troy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
41.5%
Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Tray EaffordSimilar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+19
42.3%
Jabir Daughtry-Frye run for 4 yds to the LIBERTY 47 for a 1ST down LIBERTY Penalty, personal foul (Jessie Lemonier) to the Liber 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
40.1%
Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Damion WillisSimilar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+1
40.2%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Damion Willis for 1 yd to the Liber 31Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 9
OPP 31
-2
41.5%
Sawyer Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the Liber 33Similar
Q3 10:46
4TH & 11
OPP 33
+50
45.6%
Tyler Sumpter 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 16PUNT
11 plays · 27 yds · 0:5646% → 46%
Q3 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
46.1%
Frankie Hickson run for 1 yd to the Liber 20Similar
Q3 10:41
2ND & 9
OWN 20
0
45.8%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to B.J. FarrowSimilar
Q3 10:41
3RD & 9
OWN 20
+13
44.5%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to B.J. Farrow for 13 yds to the Liber 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
47.4%
Frankie Hickson run for 2 yds to the Liber 35Similar
Q3 9:45
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+7
47.2%
Frankie Hickson run for 7 yds to the Liber 42Similar
Q3 9:45
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+2
48.9%
Frankie Hickson run for 2 yds to the Liber 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
49.8%
Frankie Hickson run for 2 yds to the Liber 46Similar
Q3 9:45
2ND & 8
OWN 46
0
49.9%
Frankie Hickson run for no gain to the Liber 46Similar
Q3 9:45
3RD & 8
OWN 46
0
47.4%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to Frankie HicksonSimilar
Q3 9:45
4TH & 8
OWN 46
0
46.0%
Aidan Alves punt for 8 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Troy 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 17INT
3 plays · 11 yds · 0:0056% → 57%
Q3 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
44.1%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Sidney Davis for 2 yds to the Troy 48Similar
Q3 7:38
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+9
44.0%
B.J. Smith run for 9 yds to the Liber 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+57
43.5%
Sawyer Smith pass intercepted Bejour Wilson return for 42 yds to the Liber 1 LIBERTY Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Liber 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 0:0050% → 51%
Q3 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
50.1%
Peytton Pickett run for 5 yds to the Liber 40Similar
Q3 6:09
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+10
52.6%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Khaleb Coleman for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:09
1ST & 10
50
+2
53.6%
Peytton Pickett run for 2 yds to the Troy 48Similar
Q3 6:09
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+4
53.7%
Peytton Pickett run for 4 yds to the Troy 44Similar
Q3 6:09
3RD & 4
OPP 44
0
53.2%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to B.J. Farrow, broken up by Blace BrownSimilar
Q3 6:09
4TH & 4
OPP 44
0
51.0%
Aidan Alves punt for 21 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Troy 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -13 yds · 0:0050% → 47%
Q3 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
49.6%
B.J. Smith run for 7 yds to the Troy 30Similar
Q3 4:01
2ND & 3
OWN 30
-4
47.6%
Gunnar Watson run for a loss of 4 yards to the Troy 26Similar
Q3 4:01
3RD & 7
OWN 26
-11
51.2%
Gunnar Watson sacked by Jayod Sanders for a loss of 11 yards to the Troy 15Similar
Q3 4:01
4TH & 18
OWN 15
-5
53.2%
TROY Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Troy 10Similar
Q3 4:01
4TH & 23
OWN 10
0
53.2%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 60 yds , DJ Stubbs returns for no gain to the Liber 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0053% → 50%
Q3 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
52.8%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to B.J. FarrowSimilar
Q3 1:45
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+1
52.2%
Peytton Pickett run for 1 yd to the Liber 31Similar
Q3 1:45
3RD & 9
OWN 31
0
50.9%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to B.J. Farrow, broken up by A.J. SmileySimilar
Q3 1:45
4TH & 9
OWN 31
+28
49.7%
Aidan Alves punt for 33 yds , Marcus Jones returns for 28 yds to the Liber 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 21FG
11 plays · 27 yds · 2:4453% → 65%
Q3 0:32
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
47.0%
Sawyer Smith run for 6 yds to the Liber 30Similar
Q3 0:32
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+2
45.0%
Jabir Daughtry-Frye run for 2 yds to the Liber 28Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 28
+7
47.2%
B.J. Smith run for 7 yds to the Liber 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
45.3%
B.J. Smith run for 5 yds to the Liber 16Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 16
+4
45.3%
B.J. Smith run for 4 yds to the Liber 12Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 12
-5
47.1%
TROY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Liber 17Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 17
+8
47.2%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 8 yds to the Liber 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
45.3%
Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Bret ClarkSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
45.3%
Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Deondre DouglasSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
47.7%
Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Richard Hallman, broken up by Elijah BentonSimilar
Q4 12:48
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
35.4%
Tyler Sumpter 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:0041% → 42%
Q4 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
41.4%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to DJ Stubbs for 12 yds to the Liber 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
42.9%
Frankie Hickson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Liber 35Similar
Q4 12:48
2ND & 12
OWN 35
+8
41.1%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to B.J. Farrow for 8 yds to the Liber 43Similar
Q4 12:48
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+1
44.3%
Frankie Hickson run for 1 yd to the Liber 44Similar
Q4 12:48
4TH & 3
OWN 44
0
42.4%
Aidan Alves punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Marcus Jones at the Troy 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 23PUNT
10 plays · 40 yds · 0:0064% → 62%
Q4 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+14
36.2%
B.J. Smith run for 14 yds to the Troy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
35.6%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Bret Clark for 9 yds to the Troy 39Similar
Q4 10:36
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+15
33.1%
LIBERTY Penalty, personal foul (Jessie Lemonier) to the Liber 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
32.2%
Tray Eafford run for 9 yds to the Liber 37Similar
Q4 10:36
2ND & 1
OPP 37
+6
31.7%
B.J. Smith run for 6 yds to the Liber 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-10
30.8%
Smith, Sawyer play action pass incomplete to Willis, Damion, PENALTY TROY holding (Kaye, Cameron) 10 yards to the LIBERTY41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:36
1ST & 20
OPP 41
+1
33.2%
B.J. Smith run for 1 yd to the Liber 40Similar
Q4 10:36
2ND & 19
OPP 40
+3
33.7%
Sawyer Smith run for 3 yds to the Liber 37Similar
Q4 10:36
3RD & 16
OPP 37
-7
35.4%
Sawyer Smith sacked by Austin Lewis for a loss of 7 yards to the Liber 44Similar
Q4 10:36
4TH & 23
OPP 44
0
38.1%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 33 yds, downed at the Liber 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 24TD
16 plays · 89 yds · 3:5543% → 95%
Q4 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
43.4%
Frankie Hickson run for 3 yds to the Liber 14Similar
Q4 6:18
2ND & 7
OWN 14
+11
43.1%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to B.J. Farrow for 11 yds to the Liber 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-13
43.8%
Stephen Calvert sacked by Jarvis Hayes for a loss of 13 yards to the Liber 12Similar
Q4 6:18
2ND & 23
OWN 12
+12
42.8%
Frankie Hickson run for 12 yds to the Liber 24Similar
Q4 6:18
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+27
40.7%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to Fidel Ogbeifun for 27 yds to the Troy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
49.9%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to DJ StubbsSimilar
Q4 6:18
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
49.2%
Stephen Calvert pass incomplete to B.J. FarrowSimilar
Q4 6:18
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+15
45.4%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to B.J. Farrow for 15 yds to the Troy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
53.1%
Frankie Hickson run for 6 yds to the Troy 28Similar
Q4 6:18
2ND & 4
OPP 28
+5
53.2%
Frankie Hickson run for 5 yds to the Troy 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+6
53.2%
Frankie Hickson run for 6 yds to the Troy 17Similar
Q4 2:47
2ND & 4
OPP 17
+1
52.4%
Frankie Hickson run for 1 yd to the Troy 16Similar
Q4 2:42
3RD & 3
OPP 16
+7
50.5%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to B.J. Farrow for 7 yds to the Troy 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
95.0%
Stephen Calvert pass complete to B.J. Farrow for 9 yds for a TD (DJ Stubbs pass to B.J. Farrow for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 25DOWNS
6 plays · -14 yds · 0:0013% → 12%
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-5
86.9%
TROY Penalty, false start (J.L. Gaston) to the Troy 21Similar
Q4 2:15
1ST & 15
OWN 21
+5
87.4%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Deondre Douglas for 5 yds to the Troy 26Similar
Q4 2:15
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
87.3%
Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Tray Eafford, broken up by Jeremy PetersSimilar
Q4 2:15
3RD & 10
OWN 26
-6
87.8%
Sawyer Smith sacked by Juwan Wells for a loss of 6 yards to the Troy 20 TROY Penalty, intentional grounding (Sawyer Smith) to the Troy 20Similar
Q4 2:15
4TH & 16
OWN 20
-8
88.5%
Sawyer Smith sacked by Jessie Lemonier for a loss of 8 yards to the Troy 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LIBDrive 26DOWNS
6 plays · -5 yds · 1:2996% → 96%
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-1
95.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 13Similar
Q4 1:45
2ND & 11
OPP 13
-3
95.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Troy 16Similar
Q4 1:45
3RD & 14
OPP 16
-2
95.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 18Similar
Q4 0:18
4TH & 16
OPP 18
+1
95.7%
Frankie Hickson run for 1 yd to the Troy 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 27END OF GAME
3 plays · 20 yds · 0:009% → 10%
Q4 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+20
90.9%
Sawyer Smith pass complete to Luke Whittemore for 20 yds to the Troy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
89.8%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:13
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
90.1%
Sawyer Smith pass incomplete to Damion Willis, broken up by Jeremy PetersSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:23
Stephen Calvert pass complete to B.J. Farrow for 9 yds for a TD (DJ Stubbs pass to B.J. Farrow for Two-Point Conversion)
+44.4
FG · Q4 12:48
Tyler Sumpter 26 yd FG GOOD
-12.3
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+9.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com